The Indian Express-5-January-2007-New Delhi-
1/C/S/O/ISC
Monsoon shift top of science congress agenda
ASHOK B SHARMA
CHIDAMBARAM (TAMIL NADU)
C LIMATE change and its impact on farming dominated the 94th Indian Science
Congress this week. The fo cus in India fell on the recent change in the monsoon rainfall
pattern, following from Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s inaugural address, seeking
scientists “to engage in exploring the links between greenhouse gas emissions and
climate change”. He also called for upgrading weather forecasting systems to help
farmers.
General president of the congress, Dr Harsh Gupta, expressed concern on the rain pattern
and its adverse effects on farming. Quoting a recent detailed study by Dr BM Goswami
and his colleagues at the Pune-based Institute of Tropical Meteorology, he said: “the
study shows a significant rising trend in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rain
events and decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India.
It also points out that the seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend as
contribution from extreme event is compensated by a decrease in moderate events.” The
monsoon rainfall system, though quite stable, does show an intricate pattern of spacetime variability leading to floods and droughts. The causes of this variability is partly due
to heating in the Bay of Bengal and also due to the El Nino phenomenon (warming of
Pacific waters). The study called for a twin-view of local and global dimensions of the
problem.
In 2005 and 2006, the country had witnessed a unique shift in the monsoon rainfall
pattern — heavy rains in droughtprone areas and low rainfall in flood-prone areas.
Particularly, the west coast of the country received heavy rain leading to floods at places.
A study by Dr Mihir K Dash of NCAOR, along with Dr PC Pandey of the Kharagpurbased Indian Institute of Technology and Dr SM Bhandari of Ahmedabad-based Space
Application Centre, revealed that “tele-connection between melting of the Antarctica Sea
ice and the frequency of El Nino and Southern Oscillation phenomena (ENSO)”. ENSO
is responsible for droughts in different parts of the globe. India experienced the worst
drought in the century in 2000 due to the emergence of El Nino.
According to Dr VN Sharda of the Dehradun-based Central Soil and Water Conservation
Research and Training Institute, who was associated with a study sponsored by the Indian
Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), annual rainfall are projected to increase at
places and decrease in different parts of the country.
The study was done for the period 20712100. Futuristic projections show that annual
rainfall would increase by 3.4 per cent in Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu and by 47 per cent over
Umiam in Meghalaya while winter rains would decrease over Tehri Garhwal. Monsoon
rains will decrease over Nilgiris and Poglur in Tamil Nadu and post-monsoon rains
would decrease over Almas, Antisar in Gujarat. The annual rainy days are also projected
to increase and decrease at different places.
C LIMATE change and its impact on farming dominated the 94th Indian Science
Congress this week. The fo- cus in India fell on the recent change in the monsoon rainfall
pattern, following from Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s in- augural address,
seeking scientists “to en- gage in exploring the links between green- house gas emissions
and climate change”. He also called for upgrading weather fore- casting systems to help
farmers. General president of the congress, Dr Harsh Gupta, expressed concern on the
rain pattern and its adverse effects on farm- ing. Quoting a recent detailed study by Dr
BM Goswami and his colleagues at the Pune-based Institute of Tropical Meteorol- ogy,
he said: “the study shows a significant rising trend in the frequency and magni- tude of
extreme rain events and decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central
India. It also points out that the seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend
as contribution from extreme event is com- pensated by a decrease in moderate events.”
The monsoon rainfall system, though quite stable, does show an intricate pattern of
space-time variability leading to floods and droughts. The causes of this variability is
partly due to heating in the Bay of Bengal and also due to the El Nino phenomenon
(warming of Pacific waters). The study called for a twin-view of local and global dimensions of the problem. In 2005 and 2006, the country had wit- nessed a unique shift in
the monsoon rain- fall pattern — heavy rains in drought- prone areas and low rainfall in
flood-prone areas. Particularly, the west coast of the country received heavy rain leading
to floods at places. A study by Dr Mihir K Dash of NCAOR, along with Dr PC Pandey of
the Kharagpur-based Indian Institute of Tech- nology and Dr SM Bhandari of Ahmedabad-based Space Application Centre, re- vealed that “tele-connection between melting
of the Antarctica Sea ice and the frequency of El Nino and Southern Oscilla- tion
phenomena (ENSO)”. ENSO is re- sponsible for droughts in different parts of the globe.
India experienced the worst drought in the century in 2000 due to the emergence of El
Nino. According to Dr VN Sharda of the Dehradun-based Central Soil and Water
Conservation Research and Training Insti- tute, who was associated with a study sponsored by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), annual rainfall are projected to increase at places and decrease in different parts of the country. The study was
done for the period 2071- 2100. Futuristic projections show that an- nual rainfall would
increase by 3.4 per cent in Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu and by 47 per cent over Umiam in
Meghalaya while winter rains would decrease over Tehri Garhwal. Monsoon rains will
decrease over Nilgiris and Poglur in Tamil Nadu and post-mon- soon rains would
decrease over Almas, An- tisar in Gujarat. The annual rainy days are also projected to
increase and decrease at different places.