Risk Mapping Kenya
Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid
January 2012
Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs
Table of Contents
Fast Facts
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HAZARDS
Natural Hazards
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3
Droughts
Floods
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Conflicts
Ethnic violence during elections
Cattle raids and conflicts over resources
Somalia and Al-Shabaab
Vulnerability
Indicators
Arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL)
Somali border region
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CAPACITY
Government
Cordaid partners
Caritas Network
International cooperation
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SYNTHESIS
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Resources & Contact persons
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Appendix: hazard map Kenya
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Republic of Kenya
Fast Facts1
Capital: Nairobi
Major religion: Christianity
Population: 38.6 mln
Official languages: English, Swahili
Population Density: 67 people/sq.km
Climate: Arid and semi/arid in north and east,
Administrative regions: 8 provinces/regions, 69
tropical along the coast
districts, 497 divisions, locations and
Pop. Affected by natural disasters
sublocations
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(average/year/mln people): 27 446
Major ethnic groups: Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo,
World Risk Index: 67 (173)
Kalenjin, Kamba, Kisii, Meru
Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, UM
Hazards
Natural Hazards
Droughts
Drought in Kenya has been described as a ‘predictable emergency’. 3 The most affected areas are the Northern
and Eastern regions of the country, which are by and large the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). Exposure to
drought is 24% of the population. That is about 9 million people. 4 It is argued that drought in the long rainy
season is becoming more frequent and prolonged as a result of climate change, with reduced volumes of
major rivers and seasonal rivers falling dry. 5
Floods
Whereas droughts are predictable, floods in Kenya often come at a surprise. Coastal areas, Kisumu area and
part of the ASAL are especially prone to flooding.6 Over the last years, rainfalls have become more intense
and also more frequent along the coast and in the northern regions, arguably as a result of climate change.
The short rainy season seems to become more prolonged, whereas the long rainy season tends to become
shorter or even fail completely. 7 Severe rains and floods also increase the risk of epidemics such as diarrhoea
and cholera.
Conflicts
Ethnic violence during elections
Many of the conflicts taking place in Kenya are ethnically oriented. During election times, ethnic divisions
often tend to become magnified. Elections often go together with incidents of violence. This was also the
case during the last presidential elections in December 2007.8
1
2
Based on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya, viewed on 28.11.2011
In August 2012, governors will be elected for a new layer of 47 semi-autonomous counties.
http://ochaonline.un.org/kenya/CurrentEmergencies/Drought/tabid/5817/language/en-US/Default.aspx, viewed on 28.11.2011
PreventionWeb (2011). Kenya. Risk Profile. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=90 viewed on 17.01.2011.
Government of Kenya, 2010. ‘National Climate Change Response Strategy: Executive Brief,
http://www.environment.go.ke/images/complete%20nccrs%20executive%20brief.pdf, viewed on 29.11.2011.
6 Cordaid 2010. ‘Kenya: Context analysis disaster risk and climate change’
7 Government of Kenya, 2010. ‘National Climate Change Response Strategy: Executive Brief,
http://www.environment.go.ke/images/complete%20nccrs%20executive%20brief.pdf, viewed on 29.11.2011.
8 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/key-issues/research-resources/conflict-histories/kenya.aspx, viewed on 30.11.2011
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3
Cattle raids and conflicts over resources
Especially in the drought-prone North of Kenya, conflicts over natural resources do occur. They tend to be
most severe during times of drought. Raiding of livestock, however, seems to be more violent during wet
seasons.9 The phenomenon is of special concern in the Karamoja-Turkana region where arms from Sudan are
widely available. Also in Samburu territory cattle raiding has led to insecurity in recent times. 10
Somalia and Al-Shabaab
Kenya currently hosts an estimated 500 thousand Somali refugees.11 There are fears of increasing influence of
Al-Shabaab in Kenya, which would endanger the security situation and threaten the country’s economy which
is heavily dependent on tourism. In October 2011, started a military intervention to protect its border against
Somali militants.12 Somali answer soon followed by way of grenade explosions in Nairobi and in the border
region.13
Vulnerability
Indicators14
Human Development Index (out of 187)
143
Adult literacy rate (% aged >15)
87
GDP per capita (USD)
1428
Mean years of schooling (of adults)
7
Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop)
19.7
Gender inequality index
0.627
Life expectancy at birth (years)
57.1
Global hunger index (>20 alarming)
18.6
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births)
84
Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean)
2.2
Gini coefficient
47.7
Arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL)
Pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and subsistence farmers living in the arid regions (roughly the upper 70% of the
country) are especially vulnerable to prolonged droughts and to rain-induced floods.15 During droughts,
pastoralists are often forced to migrate to grazing grounds further away from their home lands. Under these
circumstances, family members left behind become even more vulnerable to malnutrition, as they are
deprived from their cattle.16 Land grabbing in pastoralist areas is an increasing concern and often occurs with
government’s consent. Blocking of pastoralist migration routes greatly reduces mobility and makes
pastoralists even more vulnerable. Thus far, no provisions have been made in land legislation to protect the
right of passage, despite lobbying.17
Somali border region
In the border region with Somalia there is even more pressure on resources – and therefore higher
vulnerability- due to the influx of large groups of IDPs from Somalia where the humanitarian crises over the
Witsenburg, K. and A.R. Wario. 2009. ‘Of Rain and Raids: Violent Livestock Raiding in Northern Kenya’, Civil Wars 11(4):514-538.
Based on information provided by Gijs Aarts, 19.12.2011.
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/map_1387.pdf, viewed on 30.11.2011.
12 IRIN, 20.10.2011.’Kenya-Somalia: A risky intervention, http://irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94018, viewed on 30.11.2011.
13 CrisisWatch n.99, 1.11.2011. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/kenya.aspx, viewed on 30.11.2011.
14 Human Development Index 2011. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/KEN.html, viewed on 1.12.2011. and
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi11.pdf and http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/#CountryResults, viewed on 20.12.2011.
15 For a map lining out the arid and semi-arid regions in Kenya, see p. 7 of: Pkalya, R., M. Adan, and I. Masinde, 2003. Conflict in Northern Kenya: A focus on
the internally displaced conflict victims in Northern Kenya. ITDG-EA.
16 UNDP, n.d. ‘ Kenya: disaster management and preparedness,
http://www.undp.org/cpr/disred/documents/publications/corporatereport/africa/kenya.pdf, viewed on 2.12.2011.
17 Based on information provided by Gijs Aarts, 19.12.2011.
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last years have tended to be bigger – and probably will continue to remain of greater concern. In August 2011
for instance, it was estimated that over half a million refugees were staying at the refugee camps of
Dagahaley, Ifo, and Hagadera, all near Dadaab, whereas an estimated 3.2 million Kenyans was in need of
humanitarian assistance as a result of the drought. 18 Attacks by Al-Shabaab militia tend to take place mainly
in the border region (Mandera town) or in Nairobi. Eastleigh is a district in Nairobi where many ethnic Somalis
live.19
Capacity
Government
Disaster Risk Reduction is mainstreamed in sustainable development and in planning. 20 There is good
awareness of the risks climate change might entail for Kenya in the future, which is reflected in the country’s
2010 National Climate Change Response Strategy. 21 The country’s national platform is part of the Ministry of
State for Special Programmes, but a national disaster management policy has not yet been approved by
parliament.22
Some concerns have to be raised about the government’s unity and representation towards different
ethnicities, as post election violence has shown. Ethnic divisions might have a destabilizing impact on the
stability of the government and on the government’s capacity to act on behalf of all citizens. It has been
argued that especially the vulnerable group of pastoralists is not adequately considered by the government. 23
Cordaid partners
Sector: DRR
Name and kind of
org.
PISP NGO
Geo location
Core business
Strategy
turnover
staff
Marsabit area
Service and CMDRR
>500,000
10-50
Cifa NGO
Racida NGO
Mid P network/NGO
Codes
Moyale district
Mandera District
Isiolo, Merti
Samburu
Support to
pastoralists
idem
idem
idem
idem
idem
idem
idem
idem
10-50
10-50
1-50
1-50
Hodi
Marsabit Town
idem
IIRR
Kenya
Support
Pastoralist
Women
Training on
CMDRR
>500,000
>500,000
>500,000
100,000500,000
100,000500,000
>500,000
1-50
Training
<10
Caritas Network
There are many Caritas in Kenya, among whom the national Caritas, the biggest organisations are in the
country. However, Cordaid does not work together with them on DRR level. There is no coordination and
there are no contingency plans concerning DRR and emergency aid.
OCHA, 9.08.2011. ‘Horn of Africa: Drought- Humanitarian Snapshot
IRIN, 20.10.2011.’Kenya-Somalia: A risky intervention, http://irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94018, viewed on 30.11.2011.
Preventionweb, 2011. ‘Kenya: national progress report on the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2009-2011)’.
21 See: http://www.environment.go.ke/images/complete%20nccrs%20executive%20brief.pdf
22 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/national/list/v.php?id=90, viewed on 2.12.2011.
23 Cordaid, 2010. ‘Kenya Context Analysis- Disaster risk and climate change.’
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International cooperation
Many national and international humanitarian actors are active in Kenya. OCHA reports that ‘while
government and national partners have made great strides towards improved disaster preparedness and
response, more needs to be done to increase local capacity and consolidate achievements.’ 24 The cluster
approach was introduced in Kenya in January 2008. Meanwhile, it has been substituted by Sector Working
groups under government leadership. The Sector Working Groups with co-leadership is as follows:25
Sector
Health
Water Sanitation & Hygiene
Nutrition
Agriculture and livestock
development
Food aid
Protection
Child protection
Shelter and NFIs
Education
Early Recovery
Lead agency (with support of government)
WHO and Ministry of Public Health
UNICEF and Ministry of Water
UNICEF and Ministry of Medical Services
FAO and Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock & Fisheries
WFP and Ministry of State for Special Programmes
Kenya Human Rights Commission and Ministry of Justice
UNICEF and Ministry of Gender and Children’s Affairs
Kenya Red Cross and Ministry of State for Special Programmes
UNICEF and Ministry of Education
Being revitalized under UNDAF Outcome Working Group on DRR
On a local level humanitarian assistance is also coordinated along sector lines in District Steering Groups (DSG)
which involve both local governments, local NGOs and international NGOs. In the new districts, coordination is
often not yet fully established and policy is not always channelled down to the lowest level.26
Synthesis
Kenya’s natural hazards are arguable affected by climate change and therefore may intensify. The following
points illustrate the main risks in this country based on hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and
history.
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Exposure to drought is 24% of the population. That is about 9 million people. Past drought events have
seen 2 million affected up to 20 million affected. With climate change we may expect droughts to occur
more often.
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There is not a high exposure to floods. They affect several hundred families at a time and up to 10
thousand people.
-
During the next presidential elections instances of violence in large cities can be expected, if this
escalates it can kill hundreds and leave several hundred thousands displaced as it did in 2007.
Resources & Contact persons
Kenya Climate Change Working Group: http://www.kccwg.org/
Ministry of environment and mineral resources: http://www.environment.go.ke/
http://ochaonline.un.org/kenya/DisasterRiskManagement/tabid/5451/language/enUS/Default.aspx
http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index.asp?lang=en&iso3=KEN
24
25
26
http://www.unocha.org/where-we-work/kenya, viewed on 30.11.2011.
http://oneresponse.info/Coordination/ClusterApproach/Pages/Kenya.aspx
Based on information provided by Gijs Aarts, 19.12.2011.
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http://www.nation.co.ke
Head of OCHA Kenya Field Office: Jeanine Cooper, Tel: +254-20-7625155/Cell: +254-722-720944. email:cooper1@un.org
Focal point: Mr.Vincent A.Matioli, National Platform for Kenya created under the Office of the President,
Special Programmes. Tel. +254 20 250645/251550. e-mail: Matioliv66@yahoo.com
Gijs Aarts, PO DRR Cordaid HQ: gijs.aarts@cordaid.nl
Alba Espinoza Rocca, PO CT Cordaid HQ: aer@cordaid.nl
Ton Haverkort, Cordaid regional coordinator: thacor@cordaid.net
Mohamed Dida, Cordaid country coordinator: m.dida@cordaid.or.ke
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