FINAL DRAFT Hatchery Use and Benefits in the Context of the FCRPS Biological Opinion Remand aka “Hatchery Crediting1 Paper” Prepared by Becky Johnson Dave Johnson and Stephen H. Smith2 for the Remand Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup October 5, 2006 1 2 Credit as used in this paper is defined as assessing the positive benefit from some type of hatchery action. Contributor to How Can Hatchery Fish Contribute to Survival and Recovery Section – pages 6-14 FINAL DRAFT Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Establishing a Context - Hatchery Actions in relation to the FCRPS BiOp ............... 3 Why Do Hatchery Fish Count? ........................................................................................... 4 NOAA Fisheries’ ESU Policy and Hatchery Listing Policy ...................................... 4 NOAA Fisheries’ Final Listing Determinations ......................................................... 5 Hatchery Actions in Relation to VSP Attributes ........................................................ 6 How Can Hatchery Fish Contribute to Survival and Recovery ? ....................................... 7 Biological Benefit Provided by Hatchery Programs ................................................... 8 Integrated Conservation Hatchery Program............................................................ 8 Reformed Integrated Hatchery Program ............................................................... 12 Reformed Segregated Hatchery Program ............................................................. 12 Other Hatchery Actions ............................................................................................ 14 Applying Benefits of Hatchery Actions in the FCRPS Remand ...................................... 14 Coarse Screen Document .......................................................................................... 14 Template for Assessing Effects ................................................................................ 15 Proposed Criteria and Scoring .................................................................................. 17 Consideration of ICTRT Guidance to Hatchery Actions .................................................. 18 Determination of diversity “risk” on a case-by-case basis ....................................... 18 Application of diversity “risk” to proportion of hatchery fish on spawning grounds and duration of hatchery intervention ....................................................................... 19 Management of breeding protocols and rearing operations of the hatchery program ................................................................................................................. 19 Management of adult return abundance ................................................................ 20 Summary ........................................................................................................................... 22 Literature Cited ................................................................................................................. 23 533558028 2 FINAL DRAFT Introduction This paper is being developed for consideration by the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) BiOp Remand Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup for two primary purposes: 1. Identify how hatchery actions can provide biological benefits to Columbia River salmon and steelhead stocks in relation to the FCRPS Proposed Action and BiOp, and 2. Provide guidance on application of Interior Columbia Technical Recovery Team (ICTRT) recommendations regarding use of artificial propagation in the context of FCRPS remand. Establishing a Context - Hatchery Actions in relation to the FCRPS BiOp The Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup has been asked to identify hatchery actions that can be implemented that provide survival and recovery benefits to the listed Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESU’s) in the Interior Columbia Basin. We are providing this paper to describe the biological benefits that can be attributed to hatchery actions in the context of the FCRPS Remand. As such, the paper focuses on the species of concern within the FCRPS Remand. It takes into consideration the fact that there is an existing hatchery system within the relevant geographical area and that those hatcheries have authorized purposes and obligations. To us, it would seem impractical either to recommend future hatchery operations (or non-operations) that are contrary to mandated mitigation obligations without providing other in-kind mitigation, or to consider not using the existing hatchery network as a tool to assist in aiding survival and promoting recovery. With relation to the FCRPS Remand, the following populations are affected: Upper Columbia spring Chinook, Snake River spring/summer Chinook, Snake River fall Chinook, Upper Columbia Steelhead, Mid Columbia Steelhead and Snake River Steelhead. Although there are many hatcheries operating within the Columbia Basin, this paper only focuses on those within the geographic boundaries of the affected ESU’s. This narrowing is intended to present options pertinent to the ongoing Remand process. Hatchery production in the geographic areas encompassing the ESU’s has been occurring for over 70 years and, for the most part, was developed as mitigation for development of the Columbia River hydrosystem. For example, the Leavenworth hatchery complex (including Leavenworth, Entiat and the Methow National Fish Hatcheries) are Federal mitigation for Grande Coulee Dam which blocked half of the habitat that produced upper Columbia River salmon and steelhead. The Lower Snake River Compensation Plan (LSRCP) is congressionally authorized mitigation for an estimated 50% reduction in salmon and steelhead production in this basin due to development of the four lower Snake River dams. It is important to remember that the mitigation purpose and 533558028 3 FINAL DRAFT authorization for these facilities exists with or without the FCRPS remand and with or without the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Mitigation ascribed to hatcheries is not solely for fish to the creel. The mitigation, at least for the LSRCP, is fish “in place, in kind.” This mitigation purpose enables hatchery production under the existing authorizations, to serve double duty. The hatcheries produce fish for the creel as well as to help restore the wild runs where and when possible. Finding the means for hatcheries to do double duty provides benefits and is the reason for the focus put on their use in this paper. The harvest benefit provided by hatcheries cannot be ignored. For Tribes and others in the mid-upper reaches of the Columbia, nearly the only harvest opportunities available in the past 30 years (with the exception of upriver bright fall Chinook) have been on hatchery fish. Although the hatchery runs fluctuate with downstream and ocean conditions, as do the natural runs, they can and do provide a harvest. Continuation of this benefit must also guide the use of hatcheries within the context of the FCRPS remand. Why Do Hatchery Fish Count? For the purpose of understanding how hatchery origin fish can benefit natural origin fish of the same population it is important to consider the status of hatchery and natural origin fish in relation to the Evolutionarily Significant Unit in the context of NOAA Fisheries’: ESU Policy or “Policy Regarding the Recognition of Distinct Vertebrate Population Segments under the Endangered Species Act” (NOAA 1996), Final Listing Determinations or “Endangered and Threatened Species: Final Listing Determinations for 16 ESUs of West Coast Salmon, and Final 4(d) Protective Regulations for Threatened Salmonid ESUs (NOAA 2005a), and Hatchery Listing Policy or “Policy on the Consideration of Hatchery-Origin Fish in Endangered Species Act Listing Determinations for Pacific Salmon and Steelhead” (NOAA 2005b). NOAA Fisheries’ ESU Policy and Hatchery Listing Policy NOAA Fisheries’ ESU policy determines that a distinct population segment of a Pacific salmonid species is considered an ESU if it meets two criteria: (a) it must be substantially reproductively isolated from other conspecific population units; and (b) it must represent an important component in the evolutionary legacy of the species (NOAA 1996). A key feature of NOAA Fisheries’ ESU concept is the recognition of genetic resources that represent the ecological and genetic diversity of the species. These genetic resources can 533558028 4 FINAL DRAFT reside in a fish spawned in a hatchery (hatchery fish) as well as in a fish spawned in the wild (natural fish). In delineating an ESU that is to be considered for listing, NOAA Fisheries developed the “Hatchery Listing Policy” and identified all populations that are part of the ESU; including populations of natural fish (natural populations), populations of hatchery fish (isolated hatchery stocks), and populations that include both natural fish and hatchery fish (integrated populations). In addition to listing issues, the policy also “…provides direction for considering hatchery fish in extinction risk assessments of ESUs…” and the relationship of hatchery fish to conservation of natural salmon and steelhead populations and their ecosystems. Five principles from NOAA Fisheries’ “Hatchery Listing Policy” are: 1. Genetic resources that represent the ecological and genetic diversity of a species can reside in a fish spawned in a hatchery (hatchery fish) as well as in a fish spawned in the wild (natural fish). 2. Hatchery stocks with a level of divergence relative to the local natural population(s) that is no more than what occurs naturally within the ESU, are considered to be part of the ESU, will be considered in determining the status of the ESU, and will be included in any listing of the ESU. 3. Hatchery fish will be included in assessing an ESU’s status in the context of their contributions to conserving natural self-sustaining populations. 4. The presence of hatchery fish can contribute to increased abundance, productivity, spatial distribution and genetic diversity of an ESU. Conversely, a hatchery program managed without consideration of conservation effects can adversely affect these factors. Long-term monitoring and evaluation of hatchery effects is an important consideration. 5. Hatchery programs are capable of producing more fish than are immediately useful in conservation and recovery, and can fulfill an important role in providing sustainable fisheries. NOAA Fisheries’ Final Listing Determinations NOAA Fisheries utilized the “Hatchery Listing Policy” to determine which hatchery populations are included in the ESUs in the “Endangered and Threatened Species: Final Listing Determinations for 16 ESUs of West Coast Salmon, and Final 4(d) Protective Regulations for Threatened Salmonid ESUs (NOAA 2005a). In making determinations on ESU listing status, NOAA evaluated the relationship of individual hatchery stocks to the local natural population(s) on a case-by-case basis considering: Stock origin and the degree of known or inferred genetic divergence between the hatchery stock and the local natural population(s); and the similarity of hatchery stocks to natural populations in ecological and life-history traits. NOAA determined that these artificially propagated stocks are no more divergent relative to the local natural population(s) than what would be expected between closely related natural populations within the ESU (NOAA 2005a). 533558028 5 FINAL DRAFT Appendix A contains the “Final Listing Determination” which identifies each of the listed ESU’s including natural and hatchery-origin components. In summary, NOAA Fisheries’ listing determinations for the Interior Columbia were: Snake River sockeye (including one hatchery stock) were listed as Endangered, Upper Columbia spring Chinook (including six hatchery stocks) were listed as Endangered, Snake River fall Chinook (including four hatchery stocks) were listed as Threatened, Snake River spring/summer Chinook (including fifteen hatchery stocks) were listed as Threatened, Middle Columbia steelhead (including seven hatchery stocks) were previously listed as Threatened and the final listing status extended. Upper Columbia steelhead (including six hatchery stocks) were previously listed as Endangered with the final listing status extended. Snake River steelhead (including six hatchery stocks) were previously listed as Threatened and the final listing status extended. Hatchery Actions in Relation to VSP Attributes NOAA’s Hatchery Listing Policy states that, “The effects of hatchery fish on the status of an ESU will depend on which of the four key attributes are currently limiting the ESU and how the hatchery fish within the ESU affect each of the attributes” (abundance, productivity, spatial distribution and genetic diversity) (NOAA 2005b). All four Viable Salmonid Population (VSP) attributes are important and need to be addressed in order to achieve population viability in the long term (McElhaney et al. 2000). Improvement in any of the VSP parameters by implementing a hatchery action should have a positive effect on population viability. However, the primary criteria for evaluating population viability are abundance and productivity (Interior Columbia TRT, July 2005) as these attributes can be measured and quantified for a population and serve as more definitive metrics for consideration in assessing the FCRPS Proposed Action and the jeopardy standard (NOAA 2006a, 2006b). Well designed and implemented hatchery programs have the potential to help improve an ESU’s viability. The best-documented examples of benefits are in abundance, but benefits to spatial structure and diversity may also be possible (NOAA 2004). Except in rare circumstances, hatchery programs cannot be expected to improve the productivity of natural origin fish. It is important to note that only improvements to the major limiting factors can ensure sustained productivity improvement, and thus sustained increased abundance. For most populations in the Columbia River basin, the “hatchery” H is not a major limiting factor and improvements in the other “H’s” will be required to improve productivity. 533558028 6 FINAL DRAFT How Can Hatchery Fish Contribute to Survival and Recovery ? The Endangered Species Act and its implementing regulations provided that a jeopardy analysis includes both a survival prong and a recovery prong. For the purpose of determining effects of a hatchery program in relation to the FCRPS Remand it is important to understand how hatchery and natural fish count towards both ESU survival and recovery. Based on the foregoing section, we recommend the following strategy for assessing the role of of hatchery-origin fish (HOF) that are part of the ESU: NOF = adult natural-origin fish (i.e., progeny of fish spawning in nature). F1 HOF = adult hatchery-origin fish listed as part of the ESU (i.e. progeny of listed fish spawning in a hatchery). F2 HOF = adult natural-origin fish (NOF) with at least 1 F1HOF parent. Count toward ESU survival and recovery (delisting) calculations. Count toward ESU status (threatened or endangered) and survival (short term risk reduction) calculations; No credit in ESU recovery (delisting) calculations3. Count toward ESU survival and recovery abundance calculations. Do not count in recovery productivity calculations - if NOF R/S >1. F2 HOFs help position the ESU for recovery by maintaining natural population until limiting factors are addressed (may be short or long term). As an example of how hatchery production can benefit an ESA listed population that is trending toward extinction, consider the following scenario of a conservation4 hatchery program: Because the hatchery fish are listed under the ESA, first generation (F1) adult hatchery-origin fish (HOFs) can contribute towards survival by reducing the risk of extinction: increasing abundance, increasing productivity of the combined or integrated hatchery/natural population, preserving genetic diversity and reducing demographic risks to a population. However, because HOF’s originate within the 3 For delisting purposes, NOAA Fisheries has determined that ESA delisting would only occur if the ESU NOF populations could maintain themselves as self-sustaining populations (NOAA 2005b). 4 Conservation hatchery program is defined as one in which the principle goal is to (a) maintain the genetic resources of a population that – under current conditions - would go extinct in the absence of artificial propagation and/or (b) to directly assist with the restoration or recovery of naturally spawning populations.in which current conditions may allow natural reproduction alone to maintain self-sustaining populations.. A conservation hatchery program does not preclude harvest as a corollary goal or purpose, particularly when the number of hatchery-origin adults returning to a watershed exceed conservation objectives. 533558028 7 FINAL DRAFT hatchery environment, they do not count towards the abundance thresholds or productivity calculations used for assessing natural-origin population status and they do not count towards delisting. Natural-origin adult progeny of naturally spawning F1 HOFs spawning with each other or with natural fish (for this paper these progeny are designated as F2 HOF) contribute towards survival as well as position the natural populations for recovery. These fish contribute towards survival in the same manner as discussed for the HOF’s above. Further, because they are on the spawning grounds, their numbers could bolster and maintain the numbers of naturally spawning fish until such time that limiting factors are addressed, allowing natural productivity to sustain the population. For recovery purposes, population productivity calculations by NOAA Fisheries are based on natural productivity only. The “gap” that was calculated for each population by the TRT is a gap in productivity of natural origin fish which can only be filled by the NOF R/S being greater than 1.0 or replacement. Biological Benefit Provided by Hatchery Programs The Interior Columbia Basin TRT developed viability curves (see ESA Overviews or: Viability Criteria for Application to Interior Columbia Basin Salmonid ESUs) using abundance and productivity information for the natural origin component of each population in each ESU. This section of the paper describes three major types of hatchery programs or actions can be used to benefit the abundance and productivity of ESA listed fish; an integrated conservation hatchery program, a reformed integrated conservation hatchery program, and a reformed segregated hatchery program. These benefits are described in relation to the viability graphs. Integrated Conservation Hatchery Program A successful integrated5conservation hatchery program can benefit the natural component of the population by increasing abundance and productivity of the integrated population (NOFs, F1 HOFs and F2 HOFs). Implementation of this type of program reduces the risk of extinction by increasing and sustaining population abundance until such time as habitat improvements or other major limiting factors allow a natural productivity rate greater than one (1.0) or replacement. The time to achieve recovery for a population can be lessened. The following figures conceptually demonstrate how effects of an integrated conservation hatchery program can provide a survival (demographic risk reduction) benefit to a population. 5 An integrated population is defined by NOAA Fisheries as one in which hatchery fish are genetically no more than moderately divergent from the natural population in the ESU (NOAA 2005b). An integrated hatchery program is managed by including natural-origin fish in the hatchery broodstock and hatcheryorigin adults are purposefully allowed to spawn naturally. 533558028 8 FINAL DRAFT 10-year Abundance B A 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 Productivity or Recruits/Spawner Figure 1a. Anticipated Effect, Over Time, of a Successful Conservation Hatchery Program on the Abundance and Productivity of an Integrated Population of HOFs and NOFs. – ESA Survival Benefits A= B= initial status of natural population; NOFs only future status of integrated population w/ supplementation; includes NOFs, F1 HOFs, and F2 HOFs. This represents the population component spawning in the natural environment and associated component of the population in the hatchery, aggregated together. In this example, a conservation hatchery/supplementation program is implemented that increases the abundance and productivity of the integrated population (NOFs, F1 HOFs and F2 HOFs) from both the habitat and hatchery environments. Population status is moved from point A to point B over time depending on the success of the hatchery program and the amount and quality of habitat. This action reduces the risk of extinction (survival benefits) by moving the listed, integrated population away from the x-axis (0 abundance or extinction) and increasing the short-term certainty that the population would not fall to extinction. Bowles (1995) provides a similar diagram and explanation of how supplementation provides an increase in naturally spawning and produced fish. A successful conservation hatchery program is one that produces more F1 HOFs for each parent NOF taken into the hatchery than if the NOF had been allowed to reproduce in the wild. This is described by Bowles (1995) as, “To increase the number of naturally produced fish, artificial propagation must provide a net survival benefit for the target stock as compared with the purely natural component. In areas with existing natural population, the combined survival (adult-to-adult) of hatchery and natural fish must exceed the natural survival 533558028 9 FINAL DRAFT occurring with supplementation. This increase in net survival (hatchery and natural combined) must not come at the expense of the natural component if sustainable recovery is desired.” A successful conservation hatchery/supplementation program could also eventually lead to expanded seeding of the available (or concurrently restored) habitat (Bowles 1995), therefore increasing abundance and spatial structure and reducing the risk of extirpation. Annual monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the supplementation program should assess the status of the integrated population and the status (abundance and productivity) of the natural component of the population. Regular evaluations would calculate the abundance and productivity of the population’s natural-origin component (NOFs + F2 HOFs), e.g. point B in Figure 1b. It is important for the M&E program to determine when the productivity of the NOFs in the population exceeds 1.0 or replacement (point C) and the population is achieving its abundance goals without the continued infusion of hatchery fish spawning naturally. At that time, the status of the population in relation to variables required for recovery, and potential delisting should be considered. Figure 1b represents an integrated (supplemented) population with productivity artificially enhanced by the hatchery program. Population recovery would only occur if the NOF productivity (point C) was self-sustained above 1.0 or replacement (i.e., limiting factors were adequately addressed). 10-year Abundance B C A 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 Productivity (Returns per Spawner) Figure 1b. Potential Effect of a Successful Conservation Hatchery Program on a Population Viability Curve over Time – ESA Recovery Benefits. A= initial status of natural population; NOFs only 533558028 10 FINAL DRAFT B= C= future status of naturally produced population (NOFs + F2 HOFs) future status of NOFs (B less F2 HOFs) A successful conservation hatchery program contributes to increasing natural origin fish abundance by producing more F2 HOFs for each grandparent NOF taken into the hatchery than if the NOF had been allowed to reproduce over the two generations in the wild. Mathematically, R/S (NOF in hatchery) · R/S (F1 HOF in wild) >> [R/S (NOF in wild)]2 For example, if R/S(NOF in wild) = 0.9, R/S(NOF in hatchery) = 3.0, and R/S(F1 HOF in wild) = 0.5, then R/S(NOF in hatchery) · R/S(F1 HOF in wild) = 3.0 · 0.5 = 1.5, which is greater than R/S(NOF in wild) · R/S(NOF in wild) = 0.81 (1.5 > 0.81). In this case, abundance of listed NOFs would be expected to initially increase by about 85% (1.5-.81/.81) for that portion of the population used as broodstock in the conservation hatchery program. However, again, for recovery purposes, productivity calculations would be based on NOFs as representing progress in addressing the causes of decline. Benefits of a successful conservation/supplementation program are therefore: Providing an immediate survival benefit (risk reduction of extinction) by elevating abundance of an integrated population, consisting of ESA-listed hatchery fish and ESA-listed natural fish, away from extinction, and Providing longer-term recovery benefits by potentially reducing the time to recovery status of the natural origin fish in the supplemented population as other limiting factors are addressed. Once supplementation has served its conservation purpose, termination is an option, but likely not the best option. It is likely a conservation hatchery program would be redirected, becoming an integrated harvest program to be operated to achieve tribal and sustainable fishery benefits, the NPCC’s overall F&W Program goals for salmon and steelhead, and to maintain beneficial use of a substantial capital investment in the hatchery facilities. 533558028 11 FINAL DRAFT Reformed Integrated Hatchery Program A poorly designed or implemented conservation hatchery or supplementation program, not using best management practices, can increase extinction risk and negatively effect recovery. Such a program might actually reduce the abundance of NOFs and F2 HOFs in the wild, reduce the productivity of the naturally spawning population, homogenize and reduce the diversity of the population, and/or limit the spatial distribution of the population. Reforming such an integrated conservation hatchery program can reduce its adverse effects to population viability, therefore increasing its contribution to reducing extinction risk and promoting subsequent achievement of recovery objectives. As indicated above, a conservation hatchery program should achieve more F2 HOFs in the wild (grandchildren) from the use of an NOF as hatchery broodstock than if that NOF had been allowed to spawn naturally. Thus: F2 HOFs / NOF > F2 NOF / NOF If a reform action can increase the ratio of F2 HOF / NOF then the increase is a direct survival benefit and further positions the population for recovery. Additionally, if the reproductive success of F1 HOFs in the wild (as measured by the production of F2 HOFs) is significantly less relative to the NOFs, then improving the relative reproductive success of the HOFs provides a direct productivity increase and benefit for survival and recovery of the integrated population. For example (see Berejikian and Ford, 2004 on page 13), if F1 HOF steelhead are only 0.3 times as productive in the wild as NOFs and reform actions allow these F1 HOFs to become 0.9 times as productive in the wild, then there is a 300% increase in productivity (producing F2 HOFs) of that portion of the naturally spawning population that consists of F1 HOFs. If the proportion of F1 HOFs in the naturally spawning population is 75%, then one might hypothesize a .75 x 300% = 225% increase in integrated population productivity. (Note: likely more complicated than this – depending on proportion of HOFs spawning with NOFs, productivity of female HOFs vs. male HOFs, and productivity of HOF/NOF crosses, actual differential productivity rate between F1 HOF’s and NOFs, etc.) Conservation hatchery/supplementation programs can also be used to better spatially distribute returning adults throughout the population’s historical habitat via acclimation procedures or reintroductions into previously unused or formerly blocked habitats. Reformed Segregated Hatchery Program A genetically segregated hatchery population can depress productivity of one or more natural populations due to high stray rates and interbreeding with non-target populations, and/or mask the status of the natural population unless carefully monitored. It is important that segregated programs not jeopardize listed ESU survival and recovery. Credit should be considered for minimizing or eliminating the adverse effects of a 533558028 12 FINAL DRAFT segregated hatchery program such as by 1) eliminating the offending program and substituting some other form of mitigation, 2) reducing or eliminating stray rates into natural populations, 3) converting the segregated program to a properly functioning integrated program using appropriate locally adapted broodstock Decisions on modifying existing mitigation hatchery production must be carefully made as in many cases there are legal obligations (mitigation, treaty, etc.) that must be fulfilled. Reforming an improperly functioning segregated hatchery program has the potential to increase natural population productivity, thereby providing survival and recovery positioning benefits to the population and credits to the FCRPS PA. The reform benefit depends substantially on the reproductive success of the interbreeding of HOFs and NOFs. For example, assume a population consists of 40% F1 HOF steelhead from a segregated program that are only 0.1 times as productive in the wild as NOFs. If the F1 HOF steelhead do not actually spawn with the NOFs due to behavior differences, then eliminating the hatchery program would likely provide a low biological benefit (reduced competition, etc). At the other end of this hypothetical scale, if each F1 HOF spawns with an NOF (maximum introgression), then productivity could be reduced by up to 72%. Eliminating such introgression could then increase productivity of the natural population by up to 257%. The actual biological benefit would be an increase in population productivity of between 5% and 250%. If mating between HOFs and NOFs is random, then population productivity could be reduced by 51%. Eliminating the introgression might then increase population productivity by about 105% (see Figure 2). 10-year Abundance A D B C 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 Productivity (Returns per Spawner) Figure 2. Potential Benefit from Eliminating Adverse Effects of an Improperly Functioning Segregated Hatchery Program 533558028 13 FINAL DRAFT A= B= C= D= current status of introgressed population; 40% HOFs and 60% NOFs; HOF/NOF productivity = 0.1 current status of listed NOF population; NOFs only; when spawning with HOFs; NOFs’ productivity = 0.4 immediate status of NOF population with elimination of improperly functioning segregated hatchery program; NOFs only; productivity = 0.8 population recovery goal; requires additional 62% increase in productivity, time, and habitat capacity for population to increase to target level. Reforming ongoing integrated and/or segregated hatchery programs that are currently not operated under best management practices could potentially provide significant benefit to natural populations, depending on the level of negative impact that is currently occurring. Other Hatchery Actions There are other types of hatchery type actions proposed by the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup which do not involve the actual typical hatchery production and release of fish associated with the programs above. For example, developing a plan for a safety-net or conservation type program for a stock at high risk of extirpation or conducting a hatchery RME project that will provide helpful information for management changes that would be beneficial to recovery. These actions may be very beneficial to long term survival and recovery of listed populations but because the planning or RME activity doesn’t directly improve listed population (natural or hatchery) status or VSP attributes we were not able to diagram the biological benefit. Applying Benefits of Hatchery Actions in the FCRPS Remand Coarse Screen Document The Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup has developed a list of hatchery actions or proposals (some new and some existing programs) that have potential to provide survival and recovery benefits to the listed salmon ESU’s and steelhead DPS’s. These proposals are listed in a Coarse Screen document which will be provided to the Policy Work Group and Action Agencies for consideration of inclusion in the Proposed Action. The hatchery actions were reviewed by the U.S. vs. Oregon parties and organized in the Coarse Screen in two groups (Group A and Group B) and four categories (Category 1, 2, 3, and 4). Groups refer to U.S. vs. Oregon support via current court order or manager agreement and categories reflect U.S. vs. Oregon assessment of projects. Group A. Projects that are either identified in the U.S. vs. Oregon interim agreement, or the parties responsible for management all concur on the proposed project. 533558028 14 FINAL DRAFT Group B. Projects that currently lack consensus by U.S. vs. Oregon parties, or are outside of the U.S. vs. Oregon process. Category 1: Existing or proposed measures for existing programs that are likely to be required for that program to meet its own ESA obligation. Proposals do not reflect an official assessment or determination by NOAA Fisheries or the USFWS. Category 2: Ongoing Measures under existing programs where benefits have not been realized yet and thus are not reflected in the gap. Category 3: New measures related to existing programs that have conservation benefits that are above what is needed to meet the hatchery obligations. Category 4: Totally new programs that may have conservation benefits. Template for Assessing Effects The Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup also developed a template (spreadsheet table) for assessing the proposed hatchery actions in a qualitative manner with regard to their biological benefit to the ESU listed population the hatchery action targets. Appendix B. contains a copy of the template. The columns in the table include: 1) Population – each population, organized by major population group and ESU are listed. 2) TRT Report 5/17/06 – Information provided by the TRT regarding the status of each population is provided for a) minimum abundance threshold, b) abundance – 10 year geometric mean and range, c) productivity – 10 year geometric mean and standard deviation, d) TRT rating for abundance and productivity risk, e) and 5% observed survival gap – the empirical estimates of the required change in survival to meet ICTRT abundance and productivity goals -- or the amount of survival increase necessary to move the population to a viable level with a 95% chance of not becoming extinct in 100 years. 3) Proposed Hatchery Action – the proposed hatchery actions listed in the Coarse Screen document contain a) brief description of the hatchery action, b) authorization if it’s an existing program – i.e., Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, c) inclusion in the U.S. vs. Oregon agreement, d) other relevant information, and e) proposal submittor. 4) Provisional Project Type and U.S. vs. Oregon Categorization - the types of proposed hatchery actions are: Safety Net – an integrated (hatchery and natural origin fish) conservation hatchery program focused primarily at preventing extirpation of a population. Safety-net projects may be as intensely intrusive as the Stanley Basin sockeye 533558028 15 FINAL DRAFT captive broodstock program or short-term supplementation interventions for one or two generations, using appropriate broodstocks6. Supplementation – an integrated (hatchery and natural origin fish) conservation program focused at rebuilding of a population. Supplementation actions would utilize less intrusive methods (i.e., conventional broodstock) and may be operated for a longer term. Hatchery Reform – a program or action that is intended to improve or correct some type of negative impact from an ongoing hatchery program. Reform could occur to an integrated program or segregated program (see section above). Facility Improvement – an action that is intended to improve a hatchery facility or component for better operation. May improve survival of hatchery origin fish or improve efficiency, increase safety or save money on hatchery operations. Planning – an action to develop plans for future actions, (i.e., plans for implementation of a safety net program should the trend toward extinction continue downward). RME – an action that is focused at providing critical information to make adaptive management decisions or benefit status of population. The U.S. vs. Oregon Categorization Groups and Categories used in the template are described above. The remaining columns of the spreadsheet are intended to rate how the proposed hatchery action provides a biological benefit to the listed ESU’s in the context of the FCRPS Remand. 5) Contribution to maintaining population – ratings in this column are qualitative; high, medium, low, or none. The rating is a qualitative assessment of the hatchery action contribution to maintaining the population – decreasing the short term risk of extinction or increasing survival. The rating for Group A hatchery actions is a best professional judgement by fisheries managers responsible for the population the action is targeted at. Ratings for Group B hatchery actions are provided only by the entity that proposed the action. 6) Natural Origin fish VSP parameters positively effected (term of BiOp) – the VSP parameters for the natural origin component of the population that are positively affected by the hatchery action are marked in this column. 7) Benefit accrued to natural population during (D) or after (A) BiOp period – this column contains information with respect to the timeframe the benefit is anticipated to accrue. The benefit for some hatchery actions may occur in the 10 6 Definition from 2000 FCRPS BiOp. Safety net projects may have to be implemented for a longer timeframe than originally envisioned, depending on the status of the population and how quickly the major limiting factors can be addressed. 533558028 16 FINAL DRAFT year time period of the BiOp and others may occur post-BiOp due to the life cycle timeframe for anadromous salmon. 8) Comments – this column contains information regarding whether the hatchery action is proposed to benefit a listed population and what sort of benefit is anticipated, i.e., the action will increase abundance of fish spawning naturally. Proposed Criteria and Scoring As described above, currently the qualitative ratings for the proposed hatchery actions contribution to maintaining the population are based on best professional judgment of the fisheries managers. Due to the short time frame for development of products the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup was not able to develop criteria for rating hatchery actions. In the event that developing criteria becomes necessary, the following criteria are provided as an example for consideration in determining a qualitative benefit of the hatchery action at the population level. Using this example, each hatchery action would be scored on agreed to standards and a high benefit may be a total score >= 20 points. Criteria The target population 10 year geometric mean abundance is <25% of the threshold abundance recommended by the TRT The target population 10 year geometric mean abundance is 25-50% of the threshold abundance recommended by the TRT The target population 10 year geometric mean abundance is 50-75% of the threshold abundance recommended by the TRT The target population 10 year geometric mean abundance >75% but <100% of the threshold abundance recommended by the TRT The target population 10 year mean productivity is < 0.5. The target population 10 year mean productivity is >0.5 but < 1.0. The target population 10 year mean productivity is >1.0 but <2.0. The target population is designated as a “must have” by the TRT or selected by the managers as a population of critical importance in the ESU Project positively effects VSP criteria – 1 pt. for each Project is on the ground action (i.e., constructs, rears fish) during term of BiOp Project provides critical information to make adaptive management decisions or benefit status of population Project provides hatchery reform to a program that is a major limiting factor Project provides hatchery reform of to a program that is not a limiting factor but has negative impacts to the natural origin population Points 5 4 3 2 5 3 1 5 0-4 5 5 5 3 The Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup did not rate hatchery action benefits at a cumulative ESU level. For instance, if a hatchery action may provide beneficial outcome to more than one population that was not identified as a benefit or credit. However, if a hatchery action benefits two or more populations in the ESU (the more populations the higher the 533558028 17 FINAL DRAFT credit) it should be considered as providing more benefit under the Remand. The same would be true of a hatchery action that provided benefits to more than one ESU. Consideration of ICTRT Guidance to Hatchery Actions In a December 23, 2005 memo the Interior Columbia Technical Recovery Team (ICTRT) provided guidance and clarification on what they believe is acceptable “risk” of hatchery origin influence to the natural origin component of the population. The following section contains recommendations for the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup to consider and provide to the Policy Workgroup on application of TRT guidance. These recommendations are specifically for consideration of the use of hatchery programs in the FCRPS collaborative Remand to reduce extinction risks imposed by the effects of the FCRPS on listed ESUs. These recommendations would apply to any future hatchery consultations and BiOps as well. The primary recommendations are: 1) Determination of “risk” to diversity. The influence of hatchery origin fish on the natural origin fish should be evaluated on a flexible, case-by-case basis. 2) Consideration of “risk” regarding proportion of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds and duration of hatchery intervention. This risk factor should be applied once primary factors for decline are addressed (however long this takes) and natural fish productivity increases to support a sustained trend toward recovery. These recommendations are discussed in more detail below. Determination of diversity “risk” on a case-by-case basis The TRT developed criteria for evaluating whether the diversity attribute of a population was at high, moderate, low or very low risk. In that criteria the TRT described hatchery programs as having greater risk the longer they occurred and the greater the proportion of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds (ICTRT 2005a, 2005b). Even with “best management practices” the TRT assigns a “Moderate” to “High” risk rating to the natural population with hatchery programs extending beyond 2-3 generations and composing more than 10% of fish on the spawning grounds. This risk ranking does not take into account the extinction risks, current productivity, population abundance, survival gap, or length of time required to correct the primary factors that reduced natural fish productivity, or the Proportion of Natural Influence (PNI) being achieved by a given hatchery program. Nor does the ranking consider other factors, such as consideration of the role hatchery programs play in meeting congressionally mandated mitigation obligations and tribal treaty reserved fisheries, which might lead policymakers to conclude that continued hatchery supplementation is necessary in order to achieve diverse interests. The TRT does qualify their 533558028 18 FINAL DRAFT recommendations by encouraging case-by-case treatment of conditions that may affect the risk experienced by each population. We concur that a qualification is necessary and recommend to the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup that: Determination of “risk” to diversity attribute of hatchery origin fish influence on the natural origin fish component of a population should be applied on a flexible, case-by-case basis. Application of diversity “risk” to proportion of hatchery fish on spawning grounds and duration of hatchery intervention As described above, the TRT risk criteria for the diversity attribute does not take into account the extinction risks, current productivity, population abundance, survival gap, or length of time required to correct the primary factors that reduced natural fish productivity for the listed ESU population. These factors may present more risk to the survival of a population than the amount and duration of hatchery intervention. In the near term, conservation hatchery/supplementation programs are considered a tool that can contribute to natural fish abundance and productivity when natural fish productivity and abundance is low on a sustained basis. In such cases, greater hatchery risks may be acceptable. Hatchery risks to the diversity attributes of a supplemented population can be managed with careful attention to hatchery practices and adult return disposition. Management of breeding protocols and rearing operations of the hatchery program The diversity of a supplemented population can be influenced by the breeding protocols and juvenile rearing operations of the hatchery program. Selection within the hatchery program or juvenile rearing protocols could affect population life history diversity and phenotypic traits. To manage this risk, some programs incorporate a defined minimum proportion of natural origin fish in the broodstock derived from the local population when enhancement of the natural population or conservation of genetic resources and fitness are goals of the hatchery program. According to Hatchery Scientific Review Group (Mobrand et al. 2005), the Proportion of Natural fish Influence (PNI) in the hatchery brood stock should be >0.5 (greater than 50%) if a goal is to produce hatchery-origin fish with genetic characteristics of a natural population. For populations with high biological significance or a defined role in recovery, a PNI of >0.7 (>70% or pNOB > 2·pHOS) would be recommended. Similarity of HOF traits with NOF traits, natural rates of gene flow, and preserving genetic resources are important measures of hatchery programs. However, in the Columbia Basin, these measures should be implemented with caution given the substantial changes that have been made to fish populations and their habitats. Local populations may, at this time, not be that well adapted and may, therefore, not be a good base from which to measure changes in traits and genetic resources. Many salmon and steelhead populations have been severely manipulated and altered by early hatchery practices, population relocations, harvest regimes, and habitat alterations. 533558028 19 FINAL DRAFT Traits of current remaining fish populations may not represent historical diversity and best adapted traits to historical habitats or existing habitat conditions. Additionally, features of current habitats to which fish populations must better adapt will continue to be substantially different than historical conditions (i.e. reservoir v free flowing riverine conditions, mainstem and tributary water temperature regimes). Rather than focus on changes in traits and gene flow due to hatchery programs, integrated hatchery programs might better be guided by ensuring that the Proportion of Natural Influence (PNI) is no less than 0.5 and greater than 0.7 whenever possible. Management of adult return abundance One example of how abundance of hatchery origin fish can be managed to benefit the natural population is found in a sliding scale management plan for an integrated hatchery program where the hatchery origin fish were derived from the local natural stock (Carmichael et al. 1998, ESA Section 10 Permit 1128, LSRCP Imnaha Spring/summer Chinook Program Hatchery Genetic Management Plan, ODFW 2002). The sliding scale is premised on the theory that at low population levels the greatest risk to persistence is demographic risk of extinction and the greatest potential exists for recovery-related benefits from a high quality hatchery supplementation program. Therefore, at low population levels fewer constraints are placed on the hatchery program in an attempt to increase the abundance of individuals of a population quickly using the early freshwater incubation and rearing survival advantage provided by the hatchery. As the abundance of natural-origin juveniles and adults increase, demographic risks are of less concern and greater constraints are placed on the hatchery program to control the genetic risks associated with the hatchery program. The sliding scale defines the allocation into the hatchery or natural environment of all natural and hatchery-origin fish trapped at a collection weir. The sliding scale also assumes, at low levels of abundance, that the demographic risk of removing natural-origin fish for hatchery rearing or broodstock is lower than the demographic risk of allowing those fish to remain in the natural environment. 533558028 20 FINAL DRAFT Figure 3. Diagram of sliding scale management tool (Carmichael et al.1998). It should be noted that the benefit concepts from the sliding scale management approach are not yet proven as this type of management has only recently (last ten years) been implemented. This management approach has been authorized by NOAA Fisheries for ESA listed populations through the Section 10 permitting process. Other examples of managing the abundance of hatchery fish for a conservation hatchery program are being tested in the Snake River basin. A number of new studies on the effects of supplementation and hatchery intervention are in progress that should result in much more information within the next 10 years on the actual effects of various hatchery actions on natural population viability. Given the extirpation risks faced by the ESU’s effected by this Remand the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup has determined that conservation hatchery/supplementation programs are considered a tool that can contribute to natural fish abundance and productivity when natural fish productivity and abundance is low on a sustained basis. In such cases, greater hatchery risks may be acceptable. Therefore, we recommend to the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup that specific generational timelines or numerical thresholds for hatchery intervention should not be identified, but instead that: 533558028 21 FINAL DRAFT Application of “risk” regarding proportion of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds and duration of hatchery intervention would apply once primary factors for decline are addressed (however long this takes) and natural fish productivity increases to support a sustained trend toward recovery. Summary This paper provides a rationale and method for crediting hatchery actions in relation to the FCRPS Biological Opinion. We start from NOAA Fisheries’ premise that hatchery origin fish, in some cases, are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We summarize NOAA Fisheries’ analysis and findings in the Hatchery Listing Policy which provides the rationale for listing hatchery origin fish. Based on NOAA Fisheries’ premise, by contributing to higher numerical returns, hatchery origin fish can and do provide a benefit by reducing the risk of extinction and thus allowing for survival of the populations. Further, based on NOAA Fisheries’ premise, neither hatchery origin adults returning and spawning naturally (F1 fish), nor their progeny (F2 fish), can be credited in the context of recovery or delisting. It is our conclusion that F1and F2 fish can provide a benefit in maintaining and bolstering the natural population. This results in better positioning of the population for recovery when primary limiting factors are addressed. We describe the Coarse Screen document and the crediting template developed by the Hatchery/Harvest Workgroup of the Remand process. These products were developed and submitted for consideration as hatchery actions in the FCRPS proposed action. The Coarse Screen document puts forth a host of hatchery actions and identifies whether or not they have consensus of the parties in U.S. v Oregon. For those projects lacking consensus, the Coarse Screen defines whether the activities are new or ongoing and whether they are likely to have benefit in relation to FCRPS off-site mitigation actions. In addition, we provide a proposal for criteria and scoring hatchery actions listed in the crediting template. Finally, we describe how this crediting paper comports with the Interior Columbia River Technical Recovery Team’s risk analysis. It is our conclusion that the risks ascribed by the TRT to hatchery fish must be considered in context of other, seemingly greater risks to the populations, primarily those stemming from extreme reduction in population size. Consequently, although hatchery activities might come with risk, the benefit they can provide in maintaining populations until limiting factors are addressed can be critical. Further, our proposal considers the mitigation responsibilities of most hatchery programs in the upper Columbia River and Snake River as non-discretionary and attempts to moderate the risks described by the TRT analysis in management of breeding protocols, rearing operations and numbers of fish on the spawning grounds. 533558028 22 FINAL DRAFT Literature Cited Berejikian, B. A., and M. Ford. 2004. A review of the relative fitness of hatchery and natural salmon. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Draft Processed Report. NWFSC, Seattle, Washington. Bowles, E.C. 1995. Supplementation: Panacea or Curse for the Recovery of Declining Fish Stocks? in American Fisheries Society Symposium 15:277-283. Carmichael, R.W., S.J. Parker, and T.A. Whitesel. 1998. Status review of the chinook salmon hatchery program in the Imnaha River Basin, Oregon. In Lower Snake River Compensation Plan Status Review Symposium, February, 1998. USFWS LSRCP, Boise, ID. Hard, J. J., R.P. Jones, Jr., M.R. Delarm, and R.S. Waples. 1992. Pacific salmon and artificial propagation under the Endangered Species Act. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-2, 56p. HSRG (Hatchery Scientific Review Group). 2000. Scientific framework for artificial propagation of salmon and steelhead. Puget Sound and Coastal Washington Hatchery Scientific Review Group. December 2000. Available on the Internet at: http://www.lltk.org/hatcheryreform.html#review Interior Columbia Technical Recovery Team (ICTRT). 2005a. Interior Columbia Basin TRT: Viability Criteria for Application to Interior Columbia Basin Salmonid ESUs. NOAA Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA. ICTRT. 2005b. December 23, 2005 memo from Tom Cooney, Michelle McClure and the Interior Columbia Technical Recovery regarding Updates to ESU/Population Viability Criteria for the Interior Columbia Basin. NOAA Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA. McElhaney, P., M.H. Ruckelshaus, M.J. Ford, T.C. Wainwright, and E.P. Bjorkstedt. 2000. Viable salmonid populations and the recovery of evolutionarily significant units. U.S. Dept.Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-42, 156p. Mobrand, L., J. Barr, L. Blankenship, D.E. Campton, T. Evelyn, T.A. Flagg, C.V.W. Mahnken, L.W. Seeb, P. Seidel, and W. Smoker. 2005. Hatchery reform in Washington State: principles and emerging issues. Fisheries 30:11-23. NOAA. 1996. Policy Regarding the Recognition of Distinct Vertebrate Population Segments under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS ESU Policy. 61FR14722. February 7, 1996. 533558028 23 FINAL DRAFT NOAA. 2004. Artificial Propagation Evaluation Workshop Report. NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Region, Protected Resources Division. April 21-23, 2004. Available on the internet at: http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/ESA-Salmon-Listings/SalmonPopulations/Alsea Response/upload/APE-wrkshprpt-2004.pdf NOAA. 2005a. Endangered and Threatened Species: Final Listing Determinations for 16 ESUs of West Coast Salmon, and Final 4(d) Protective Regulations for Threatened Salmonid ESUs. NMFS ESU Listing Determinations. 70FR37160; June 28, 2005. NOAA. 2005b. Policy on the consideration of hatchery-origin fish in Endangered Species Act listing determinations for Pacific salmon and steelhead. NMFS Final Hatchery Listing Policy. 70 FR 37204; June 28, 2005. NOAA. 2006a. July 12, 2006, memorandum from Bob Lohn to Policy Work Group (NWF v. NMFS Remand) regarding NOAA’s Intended Biological Opinion Standards and Analysis. NOAA Fisheries, Portland, OR. NOAA. 2006b. September 11, 2006, memorandum from Bob Lohn to Policy Work Group (NWF v. NMFS Remand) regarding Metrics and Other Information that NOAA Fisheries Will Consider in Conducting the Jeopardy Analysis. NOAA Fisheries, Portland, OR. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW). 2002. Imnaha Spring/summer Chinook Program Hatchery Genetic Management Plan. ODFW, LaGrande, OR. 533558028 24