Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 Sharing the Fit Out ‘Cake’ The Central London Interiors Market March 2008 Introduction This research into the central London interior fit out market by Metropolis Property Research has been prepared for MIPIM March 2008. Andy King is Managing Director of Metropolis Property Research and a Director of CityOffices.net The Context As part of the research Metropolis has identified the larger office lettings and re-stack projects in central London for the period 2004 to 2008 (so far) and where possible the project teams. The research covers projects of 1,858 sq m (20,000 sq ft) + and has been prepared in consultation with the major firms active in the market. This original and independent research has allowed us to compile a new London Top 10 Rankings of interior architects and fit out contractors for MIPIM. A Bigger Slice of the Cake The research looks at one slice of the whole central London interior ‘cake’ and is focussed on the fit out (Category B) of new and refurbished Grade A space based on agreed lettings. The total take-up of all office space in central London 2004-2008 (so far) has been just over 50m sq ft, and large deals, which form the basis for the Top 10 research, amounted to 28.7m sq ft. For the first time the research has looked at another slices of the interior market namely re-stack (fit out/refurbishment with occupier in occupation). The only ‘slice’ that does not form part of the analysis is the fit out /refurbishment of vacant speculative office space. It is hoped to provide an overview of this last remaining aspect of the London interior market in the next report. The re-stack market is estimated at around 6m sq ft for 2004-2008 (so far) and the speculative refurbishment/fit out market is estimated to be at a similar level. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 Diagram 1 Central London Fit-Out Market ‘Cake’ (Major Projects Total Size 62m sq ft 2004-2008) Spec Space (estimate) 15% Re-Stack 15% Major Lettings 70% Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) and CityOffices.net (www.cityoffices.net) The following analysis of market share is in the context of the above figures. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 MCM Take the Lead - Interior Architect Market The Top 10 Interior Architect Rankings for the combined totals for 2004-2008 are as follows: Interior Architects Ranking MCM Swanke Hayden Connell Pringle Brandon BID (Bennett Interior Design) Gensler HOK Sheppard Robson Building Design Partnership Woods Bagot MoreySmith Architects Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) Those firms in the Top 10 have dealt with, or are dealing with, nearly 14m sq ft of ‘live’ or recent interior projects, which comprises 50% of all office projects in central London 2004-2008 reviewed as part of the research. The actual interior fit out market share 2004-2008 (so far) of these firms is: Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 MoreySmith Architects 3% Woods Bagot 4% MCM 17% BDP 5% Sheppard Robson 7% HOK 10% Swanke Hayden Connell 15% Gensler 12% BID 13% Pringle Brandon 14% Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) The Top 10 architect ranking now sees MCM overtake Swanke Hayden Connell to take first place, with a 17% market share of major interior projects in central London. MCM has had a particularly good year with its clients taking over 0.9m sq ft of office space. This has enabled MCM to overtake the 1.3m sq ft of clients taking space that took Swanke Hayden Connell to first place in early 2007. Pringle Brandon keeps third place and for the second year and Gensler and HOK have each moved up a place in the rankings as Sheppard Robson moves down the ranking. Building Design Partnership (BDP) moves into the ranking for the first time. Six firms now dominate the market with 82% of the major projects (Category B) interior design work. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 Overbury Overtake ISG - Fit-Out Market The market trend to more pre-lets activity means that the time lag on the appointment of a fit out contractor can now be well over 12 months behind the appointment of interior architect and project manager. This makes the Top 10 analysis of fit out more subject to change as the number of projects cover a wider time frame than other sections of this report. The Top 10 Interior Fit-Out Rankings for 2004-2008 are: Fit Out Ranking Overbury ISG Como StructureTone Skanska Wates BW Interiors Ibex Canary Wharf Contractors 8build Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) Those firms in the Top 10 have dealt with, or are dealing with 13m sq ft of ‘live’ or recent interior projects and this comprises 44% of all office these projects in central London 2004-2008 (so far) reviewed as part of the research. The actual interior fit out market share 2004-2008 (so far) of these firms is: Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 8build 4% Canary Wharf Contractors 5% Ibex 5% Overbury 26% BW Interiors 5% Wates 6% Skanska 6% StructureTone 7% ISG 25% Como 11% Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) Overbury has gained market share last year and has just replaced ISG at the top of the ranking. The two firms continue to dominate the market, now accounting for 52% of large fit out projects (Category B) in central London. Como has held third place with an has increased market share since our last report. BW Interiors has move up the ranking and 8build is a newcomer to the list. There are currently 5.9m sq ft of ‘live’ projects in central London where the fit out contract has still to be appointed. This is a 68% increase since our last review in early 2007 and reflects the activity in the central London letting market over the last 18 months. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 Two Firms Dominate - Re-Stack Architects The Top 10 Re-Stack Architect Rankings for the combined totals for 2004-2008 are as follows: Interior Architects Ranking HOK Pringle Brandon MCM Swanke Hayden Connell TTSP Gensler Woods Bagot HLW BID (Bennett Interior Design) MoreySmith Architects Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) Those firms in the Top 10 have dealt with, or are dealing with, close to 6.0m sq ft of re-stack projects in central London 2004-2008 (so far) reviewed as part of the research. The actual re-stack market share 2004-2008 of these firms is: Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 MoreySmith 2% BID 3% HLW 3% Woods Bagot 4% Gensler 5% HOK 28% TTSP 7% Swanke Hayden Connell 10% MCM 16% Pringle Brandon 22% Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) In this new research on the re-stack market it is clear that HOK and Pringle Brandon dominate, with a combined share of 50% of major central London projects. Overall the top four firms account for 76% market share, with six firms taking the remaining 26%. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 ISG Just Ahead - Re-Stack Fit Out The Top 10 Re-Stack Fit-Out Rankings for 2004-2008 are: Fit Out Ranking ISG Overbury Ibex Bovis Lend Lease Mitie Wates BW Interiors Como Wallis 8build Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) Those firms in the Top 10 have dealt with, or are dealing with nearly 5m sq ft of ‘live’ or recent re-stack projects in central London 2004-2008 reviewed as part of the research. The actual re-stack market share 2004-2008 of these firms is: Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 8build 2% Wallis 2% Como 2% BW Interiors 5% ISG 24% Wates 8% Mitie 10% Bovis Lend Lease 12% Overbury 22% Ibex 13% Source: Metropolis Property Research (www.metroinfo.co.uk) As with the central London interior fit out sector ISG and Overbury account for a significant share of projects (46%), and at this point ISG is ahead. The top six firms account for 81% of the market, and there are a few names, such as Bovis Lend Lease, Ibex, and Mitie, which are better represented in the re-stack ranking than on the interior fit out ranking. There are several major re-stack projects due to be awarded in 2008 which may see the positions in the ranking change. Central London Fit Out Report March 2008 Prospects For 2008 In 2007 the take up of office space in central London at 15m sq ft was similar to the previous year, although cut backs caused by the credit crunch are expected to lead to a slow down in the London office market. Although the credit crunch is not expected to be as severe as the down-turn in 2001 and 2002, it is estimated that between 6,000- 8,000 jobs in the financial sector could go by the end of 2008. At present there are indications that a few requirements are on-hold, but with at least 5.9m sq ft of fit out contracts still to be awarded the interior fit out sector should remain strong in 2008. It is 2009 where the problems perhaps lie. However, any down turn in the take up of new office space could be off-set by an increase in re-stack work as occupiers decide to remain in existing space that bit longer, and with a very good deal from the landlord. Andy King is Managing Director of Metropolis Property Research and a Director of CityOffices.net For further information on Metropolis Movers research and City Offices.net research on central London and UK regional cities please visit www.metroinfo.co.uk www.cityoffices.net The information and analysis in this report have been rigorously checked and is, as far as possible, correct at the time of going to press. Metropolis Property Research Ltd can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. The report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into any transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. No part of the report should be published, reproduced or referred to, without the prior approval of the author. Any such reproduction should be credited. 11.02.08