PROJECT IDENTIFICATION FORM (PIF)
PROJECT TYPE: Full-sized Project
THE Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) 1
Submission date:
September 14, 2007
Re-submission date: April 3, 2008
GEFSEC PROJECT ID2: 3159
GEF AGENCY PROJECT ID: P100438
COUNTRY(IES): Mexico
PROJECT TITLE: Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the
Coastal Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico through Improved Water
Resource Management Project
GEF AGENCY(IES): World Bank
OTHER EXECUTING PARTNER(S): SEMARNAT (through the
Instituto Nacional de Ecología) and local government agencies
GEF FOCAL AREA: Climate Change
INDICATIVE CALENDAR
Milestones
Expected Dates
Work Program (for SCCF FSP)
CEO Endorsement/Approval
GEF Agency Approval
Implementation Start
Mid-term Review (if planned)
Implementation Completion
June 2008
March 2009
May 2009
July 2009
Dec 2011
June 2014
A. PROJECT FRAMEWORK (Expand the table as necessary)
Project Objective: To reduce vulnerability to the anticipated impacts from climate change on the country's water
resources, with a primary focus on coastal wetlands and associated inland basins.
Project
Components
Invest
ment,
TA, or
STA**
Expected
Outcomes
3. Implementation
of pilot adaptation
measures in
selected wetlands
highly vulnerable
to the effects of
1
2
Data and reports
produced are
successfully
applied to devise
policy options and
recommend
adaptation
measures for
water sector
Inv /
Evaluation of
TA
current and
anticipated CC
impacts on
wetlands
provides basis
for devising
policy and
programs
- Adaptation
measures
designed
Inv
Indicative
LDCF/SCCF
Financing*
($)
1. National
Inv
policies to address
the impacts of
climate change on
water resources
management
2. Detailed design
of key selected
adaptation
measures
Expected Outputs
- Data is generated based on
adaptation measures and on
analysis of potential CC impacts
on the water sector
- Pilot adaptation measures
designed, including physical
interventions and institutional and
financial arrangements for long
term sustainability.
Inventory of present state of
wetlands developed
- CC impacts on coastal Gulf
wetlands and water sector
evaluated and quantified such as
impact of anticipated intensified
hurricanes
- Monitoring system of coastal
wetlands in place
Modeling of water cycle with
regard to CC impacts
Selected
- Early warning systems installed
environmental
based on hydro-meteorological
services
models
provided by
-Expansion of civil protection
coastal wetlands system
are maintained; Creation of buffer zones and of
%
Indicative Cofinancing*
($)
Total ($)
%
400,000 10
3,600,000 90
4,000,000
500,000 25
1,500,000 75
2,000,000
3,500,000 19 15,000,000 81
18,500,000
This template is for the use of LDCF projects and SCCF Adaptation projects only. For other SCCF projects under Technology Transfer, Sectors and Economic
Diversification windows, other templates will be provided.
1
Project ID number will be assigned initially by GEFSEC. If PIF has been submitted earlier, use the same ID number as PIF.
PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
climate change.
Wetland
extension and
depth within
natural range;
Health of
selected
wetlands
stabilized;
Migration of
populations
stabilized.
Productive
activities in pilot
sites maintained
anticipating CC
impacts;
biological corridors between
vulnerable wetlands
- - Restitution of vulnerable
ecosystems through conservation,
reforestation and restoration
efforts of wetlands
- - Maintenance and
improvements of drainage
systems
- Strengthening and/or
improvement of coastal
infrastructure
- - Rainwater harvesting measures
- Pilot climate resilient
agricultural activities 100,000 10
4. Project management
Total project costs
900,000 90
1,000,000
4,500,000 18 21,000,000 82 25,500,000
* List the $ by project components. The percentage is the share of LDCF/SCCF and Co-financing respectively to the total amount for the
component.
** TA = Technical Assistance;
STA = Scientific & technical analysis.
B. INDICATIVE FINANCING PLAN SUMMARY FOR THE PROJECT ($)
Project Preparation *
SCCF Grant
Co-financing
Total
300,000
300,000
Project
4,500,000
21,000,000
25,500,000
Agency Fee
480,000
480,000
Total
5,280,000
21,000,000
26,280,000
* PDF B of $300,000 was approved on August 3, 2006.
C. INDICATIVE CO-FINANCING FOR THE PROJECT (including project preparation) BY SOURCE AND BY NAME
(in parentheseis) if available, ($)
Sources of Co-financing
Project Government Contribution
Project Government Contribution
Bilateral Aid Agency(ies)
Type of Co-financing
In-kind
Cash
Grant
Total co-financing
Amount*
10,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
21,000,000
* Indicate the amount of project preparation included in the columns.
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PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
PART II: PROJECT JUSTIFICATION
A. STATE THE ISSUE, HOW THE PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS IT, AND THE EXPECTED ADAPTATION BENEFITS TO
BE DELIVERED:
Coastal regions, and in particular coastal wetlands systems, are very vulnerable to sea level increases,
intensification of hurricanes, fluctuations in water regimes and storm surges. Coastal wetlands in the Gulf of
Mexico have been identified by the Mexican Government as the most critical and most threatened by anticipated
climate changes. The three national communications3 and other studies have documented ongoing changes in the
wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico and have raised urgent concerns about their integrity. Other studies have indicated that
the Gulf of Mexico wetlands are particular vulnerable to subsidence and saline intrusion, both forced by climate
change.
These wetlands perform very important environmental functions (fisheries, water for irrigation and potable
use, tourism, storm buffers) that are critical to economic activity over a wide area of the country. The Gulf of
Mexico coast is flanked by 27 major systems, estuaries, bays and coastal lagoons that serve as shelter, feeding, and
reproduction areas for numerous species that represent the most important riverside fisheries and provide substantial
economic and environmental services to the population in the area. Thus, effective adaptation measures would have a
major economic and social impact in Mexico and in particular over the selected areas where most of the population is
below the poverty line. The development of pilot adaptation measures would have wide applicability through-out
coastal zones in Latin America, Africa and developing Asia.
The functionality and conservation of the wetlands depend on the environmental and water management in the
extended areas around the wetlands. Sea level increases in the Gulf of Mexico are modifying the saline equilibrium
forcing sea water into the boundary layer of freshwater. Anticipated modifications in precipitation patterns in the
North of Mexico will affect natural drainage systems and drastically modify runoff, and infiltration processes; this is
projected to drastically deteriorate the natural water balance of these systems. Further, weakened marshlands and
mangroves will be less likely to stand increased weather variability in the Gulf of Mexico. Increases of 40% in the
number of high intensity hurricanes and landfalls in the Atlantic over the baseline period of 1961-1970 have been
registered during the last ten years, with the potential to cause serious ecosystem disruption, property and human
losses.
The situation is anticipated to worsen because of climate change impacts, as per conditions analyzed by the IPCC,
under the SRES (Standard reduction of emission) scenarios. Results from recent studies4 on the vulnerability of
hydrologic regions in México suggest that potential changes in air temperature and precipitation may have a dramatic
impact on the pattern and magnitude of runoff, on soil moisture and evaporation. Runoff is a measure of sustainable
water availability. Data just published on projected forced hydro-climatic changes, as part of IPCC assessments5
indicate that Mexico may experience significant decreases in runoff, of the order of minus 10 to 20% nationally, and
up to 40% over the Gulf Coast wetlands, as a result of global climate change.
The project would identify national policies to address the impacts of climate change on water resources at the
national level (global overlay), quantify climate change impacts on the integrity and stability of Gulf of Mexico
wetlands, and implement pilot adaptation measures to protect their environmental and economic services, provided by
these wetlands, from climate change related impacts. The project will focus on areas that include important urban
centers as well as rural localities of the Gulf of Mexico with incomes well below the national average.
Project Description. Components and Activities:
Component 1: National policies to address the impacts of climate change on water resources management
(global overlay). (GEF contribution US$0.4million; total cost US$ 4.0 million): This component will complement
efforts –supported by the Bank and other IFI- to assess current policy options and measures that could be adopted at a
national level to incorporate the anticipated impacts of climate change on existing water supply and water quality
3
National Communications to the UNFCCC one, two and three, 2001, 2004, 2007.
Mendoza, Victor, Elba Villanueva, and Julián Adem. “Vulnerability of basins and watersheds in Mexico to global climate change.” Climate
Research, Vol. 9: 139-145, 1997. Conde C, D Liverman, M Flores, et al, “Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change.”
Climate Research, Vol. 9: 17-23; 1997.
5 P. C. D. Milly1, K. A. Dunne1 & A. V. Vecchia. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature:
3
November 17, 2005 pp
4
PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
(global overlay). Based on projected impacts of climate change on water availability at the annual and seasonal level,
the component will update the diagnosis of current impacts and recommended alternative policy measures.
Component 2 (Planning). Detailed design of key selected adaptation measures (GEF contribution
US$0.5million; total cost US$2.0 million): the objective of this component is to complete the design of strategic
adaptation measures in four pilot sites to be implemented under component 3. The objective will be achieved through
the following activities:
Technical, engineering design; (b) environmental and social management plans; (c) community participation; (d) M&E
system design to measure the impacts of adopted measures.
Component 3. Implementation of pilot adaptation measures in selected wetlands highly vulnerable to the effects
of climate change. (GEF contribution US$3.5 million;
total cost US$18.5 million). The project adds a climate
overlay to transform government programs or
investments so that these include the needs for adaptation
to climate change impacts. Pilot adaptation investments
for each selected pilot site have been selected on the basis
of the magnitude of the climate change threat.
The pilot sites Papaloapan – Coatzacoalcos located in
the state of Veracruz; Carmen – Petenenes located in
the states of Tabasco and Campeche; and Cancun –
Punta Allen located in the state of Quintana Roo have
been identified as particularly vulnerable to sea level rise
and to more extreme weather events. To address the
impacts of an expected increase in the frequency of more
intense hurricanes, the project would: (i) increasing the
extension of the protected area status for wetlands,
implementing wetlands conservation strategies; (ii) building protection barriers, strengthening river beds and the
cleaning river mouths; (iii) improving existing health services anticipating CC impacts and conducting biological
control of diseases; (iv) improving infrastructure (embankments); and (v) modification of building norms, application
of land use plans.
The pilot sites San Fernando - Panuco are located in the state of Tamaulipas. Based on projections of the future
climate change trends, these sites will face increased droughts and extreme heat waves. The considered adaptation
measures would address the expected lack of water resources for the different sectors.
Component 4: Project management: This component will support the overall technical coordination of Project
Activities (including the implementation of a technical monitoring system) as well as the administrative and financial
management of the Project.
B. DESCRIBE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECT WITH NATIONAL PRIORITIES/PLANS: The project represents a
priority for the Government of Mexico. It constitutes the keystone of the national adaptation strategy and makes
part of the national climate change strategy. The project is country-driven and seeks to protect economic and
ecosystem benefits threatened by climate impacts. The areas and sectors seen as particularly fragile to climate
impacts include water resources, forestry, agriculture, coastal zones, in particular wetlands, drought and
desertification. Furthermore, wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico have been identified by Instituto Nacional de
Ecología (INE) as the most critical and most threatened by anticipated climate changes with serious consequences
for the environmental services they provide, including water regulation, water quality, fisheries and agriculture
The project contributes to Mexico’s National Communications to the UNFCCC which identified Mexico as
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change. The priority setting for the project is mentioned
in the adaptation sectors of Mexico’s three National Communications submitted so far to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The results of the studies supported under the PDF B will be
incorporated in the adaptation chapter of Mexico’s next National Communication, to be started next year (INE).
Also, the results of the project to date, with the identification of the pilot sites to implement adaptation
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PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
measurements will be incorporated into the Special Program on Climate Change, which will be published in the
next 12-18 months under the National Strategy on Climate change (INE).
The proposed project is also consistent with the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy for Mexico. The CPS
recognizes water resource management among Mexico’s most urgent problem today. Mexico is regarded as
highly vulnerable to natural disasters. The CPS identifies global warming and pollution as very significant
poverty and security issues. Mexico is considered a key country in climate change adaptation and mitigation. The
project contributes to the CPS’s focus on promoting development in harmony with nature and environment,
particularly by providing support to address the impacts of climate change in freshwater availability and in
degradation of coastal wetlands.
C. DESCRIBE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECT WITH LDCF/SCCF ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA AND PRIORITIES:
The proposed project is consistent with the SCCF’s objectives by formulating and implementing specific
adaptation policy actions and measures in the identified priority areas. The proposed project will address water
resources management through the identification of national policies to address the impacts of climate change on
water resources at the national level, as well as through the implementation of specific adaptation measures to
maintain water supply for productive sectors. It will focus on actions to protect the economic services provided by
coastal wetlands from the impacts of climate change. The project also seeks to strengthen the response capacities
and to strengthen vulnerable coastlines by climate proofing coastal infrastructure and by creating buffer zones.
Moreover the proposed Project will serve as a catalyst to leverage additional resources from bilateral and other
multilateral sources. The activities to be funded under the proposed Project are country-driven, cost-effective and
integrated into national priorities as expressed in the 1st National Communication.
D. OUTLINE THE COORDINATION WITH OTHER RELATED INITIATIVES: The proposed project will be designed
and implemented in coordination with INAP and Caribbean SPA, as well as with the SCCF Regional Andes:
Adaptation to Glacier Retreat project, recently approved by the GEF Council and the following GEF and Bank
financed projects: a) National Protected Areas (Sian Kaan; Ría Lagartos and Centla); b) Mesoamerican Biological
Corridor; c) PROMMA (Water Management Modernization project); d) PMIR (Sustainable irrigation district
management in the Rio Grande/Bravo). Linkages will also be sought with the proposed Bank supported
Agroforestry project in the coastlines of Sonora which is seeking the restoration of degraded coastal desert. The
project will also liaise with the Bank’s Second Programmatic Environment Development Policy Loan (Aug. 2005;
P079748) which seeks to create an enabling environment for improved water resources planning and management,
and complement the Water Programmatic AAA studying the economic value of water, and the Integrated
Management of Basins and Aquifers Project improving the conditions for sustainable integrated water resources
management. The project has benefited from the ongoing Water Public Expenditure Review, soon to be published.
A close linkage has been developed between this project and the Integrated Management of Basins and Aquifers
Project (GICA) that is presently under preparation.
E. DESCRIBE ADDITIONAL COST REASONING: Without SCCF resources, the adoption of specific measures to
overlay climate change considerations on the development of national water policies and measures will not take
place. To date, climate change considerations are not part of the long-term planning of national water resources
and are not expected to be without the project. Without the proposed measures on the Gulf Coast wetlands, the
region will be facing more severely the anticipated impacts of climate change. Even with the implementation of
adaptation measures the impacts of global climate change will affect the coastal zones and the water resources of
Mexico. Without SCCF resources, efforts to identify and commit co-financing for adaptation would be difficult.
The suggested measures help integrate climate change consideration in the national water resources management
planning, reducing vulnerability to the climate change impacts and piloting adaptation measures. Furthermore,
under a business as usual scenario, it is unlikely that similar adaptation measures will be designed since other
multiple local and regional challenges demand all available technical and financial available resources. With
SCCF Financial Support, the suggested adaptation measures would be significantly bolstered and would benefit
from pilot experiences implemented under GEF in the region and on themes relevant for Mexico (e.g. Disaster
Management in Central America). The funds given by SCCF would help finance the additional costs of
achieving climate resilient sustainable development. SCCF support will also help linking water resource
management to coastal ecosystem management by addressing downstream impacts of water resource management
on ecological systems. The project would promote synergies and a greater exchange of information between the
various institutions dealing with this issue, such as INE, CONANP, CONABIO, SEMAR, CNA, ZOFEMAT and 5
PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
CONAFOR. Besides the local and global benefits, the lessons from the implementation of measures will have a
global information and dissemination value that may guide future efforts at GEF and other nations.
F. INDICATE THE RISK THAT MIGHT PREVENT THE PROJECT OBJECTIVE(S) FROM BEING ACHIEVED AND OUTLINE
RISK MITIGATION MEASURES:
Risk
Rating
Speed of climate change might S
overwhelm capacity to adapt.
Overarching macroeconomic / fiscal
constraints continue to be a key risk
in the country
Risk of limited technical capacity to
implement the project and ensure
successful coordination efforts across
the sectors and the different
government levels participating.
Change
of
administration
of
municipalities. Given the long-term
nature of the challenges, there is a
risk that future administrations may
not support its goals.
M
M
M
Mitigation
Stabilization of GHG emissions at 450-500 ppm. Unless this is done, the
climate signal would eventually overwhelm the capacity to adapt. A
commitment by energy intensive societies is required to control their
emissions and support global mitigation efforts.
The Program will rely and complement existing development plans,
institutions and staff at the national and regional levels. The program will be
supported through co-financing from international institutions.
The project will have strong intra-regional and inter-agency coordination with
domestic and international partners. Project synergies between countries and
with existing adaptation projects will allow for mobilization of additional
technical resources and expertise.
Long term commitments will be sought from participating agencies. Project
seeks to identify and establish investment-based sustainable adaptation
projects. Civil society/local administration participation will strengthen
project sustainability.
G. DESCRIBE, IF POSSIBLE, THE EXPECTED cost-effectiveness OF THE PROJECT:
The project will support
adaptation measures selected and formulated based on cost-effectiveness criteria. The cost effectiveness analysis
of alternative adaptation measures in each component will be undertaken to ensure the best allocation of resources.
The analysis will assess direct economic benefits and costs associated with the adaptation measures applying
standard economic methodology and the long term character of the expected benefits and costs. Community,
national and sectoral benefits will be identified and quantified, if possible, as part of the analysis. An incremental
cost analysis and an accounting of local and global benefits will also be included. A financial analysis will be
conducted as part of the selection process for site specific adaptation measures, which will guide the decisionmaking process for the identification of appropriate and economic efficient interventions. During project
implementation data will be gathered to assess actual benefits and costs of pilot measures. These criteria will be
applied to all proposed activities. Under an approved parallel Japanese grant efforts are being supported to quantify
the implications from climate change impacts on national water resources and coastal wetlands in Mexico further
supporting the evaluation of cost and benefits of selected adaptation measures.
H.
JUSTIFY THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF GEF AGENCY: The Bank has been very active on adaptation issues
in Latin America. It has identified adaptation to climate change impacts as priority one of a climate change
strategy. The Bank’s role in adaptation in Latin America started in 1997 and now includes a portfolio of 8
projects. In Mexico, the Bank has been very active in fostering national institutional capabilities to for Mexico to
deal with the consequences of climate change. The Bank has assisted the GOM with institutional capacity building
and knowledge management in climate change (support to the climate change office and operation of the Earth
Simulator in Mexico) as well as in mitigation activities (carbon sinks, carbon emission reductions in transport and
energy) The proposed project would complement these activities as an investment in specific adaptation measures
facilitated by the Mexican government with the participation of several municipal and regional agencies.
The adaptation project is expected to assist the proposed Environmental DPL to incorporate the adaptation issue.
The launching of the National Water and Climate Change study is a proposed trigger under the DPL. Other Bankfunded investments expected to incorporate adaptation issues as a result of the project, include: the SINAP and the
Environmental Services Project, the Integrated Watershed Management (GICA) and the Tuxlas BioCarbon Fund
and the Sea Forestry Carbon Sink (a carbon financed initiative supported by the Bank, which will take place in the
Gulf of Mexico) all which will be implemented in coordination to the adaptation initiative to incorporate the issue
in their execution.
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PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc
PART III: APPROVAL/ENDORSEMENT BY OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT(S) AND GEF
AGENCY(IES)
A. RECORD OF ENDORSEMENT OF GEF OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT(S) ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT:
(Please attach the country endorsement letter(s) or regional endorsement letter(s) with this template).
Claudia Grayeb Bayata, Director and GEF
Focal Point, Ministry of Finance
Date: August 24, 2007
B. AGENCY(IES) CERTIFICATION
This request has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the
LDCF/SCCF criteria for project identification and preparation.
Steve Gorman
GEF Executive Coordinator
The World Bank
Date: April 3, 2008
Jocelyne Albert
Project Contact Person
Tel. and email:(202) 473-3458
Jalbert@worldbank.org
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PIF Template-LDCF SCCF, Aug 30, 2007.doc