Victim Risk Analysis / Threat Assessment (DRAFT)
Research Paper for CrJu 4430 Victimology
Dr. Stan Crowder
Acknowledgement: This paper was developed from three main sources. In an effort to improve
the reading and understanding of this document, the author has not cited the material; rather,
the author gratefully acknowledges the adaptation of the material taken from the sources below.
1. Threat Assessment Guide: Evaluating and Analyzing Criminal Extremist Groups published by
the California Department of Justice, April 2002.
2. Criminal Profiling: An Introduction to Behavioral Evidence Analysis by Brent Turvey.
3. Field Manual 100-14, Risk Management, HQ, Department of the Army, April 1998.
General: Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling risks arising
from operational factors and making decisions based on safety. Risk is characterized by the
probability and severity of a potential loss resulting from presence of an adversary or some other
hazardous condition. Perception of risk varies. Victim Risk Analysis and Threat Assessment
evaluates the characteristics of the crime by focusing on the victim. Victim Risk Analysis and
Threat Assessment is a two-part process resulting in one written assessment. The Victim Risk
Analysis evaluates the characteristics of the victim, analyzes the risks, and measures violence
potential. The threat assessment determines a strategy to posit how the crime could have been
prevented, could have been neutralized by the victim, and or what steps can be taken by society,
law enforcement, and or potential victims so this type of crime will not be repeated. The Victim
Risk Analysis is a part of the Threat Assessment; in other words, you cannot complete the
Threshold Assessment without first completing the Victim Risk Analysis. The learning goal is an
understanding of tactical or strategic plans that may overcome the threat to victims. A good
assessment contributes to the detection, investigation, and prosecution of criminal offenders.
Steps: The researcher must collect reliable intelligence and information on the case, the victim,
and the offender. The researcher must interpret the information and assess the risks to the victim
and threat potential of the offender. Examinations of the victim and offender include:
capabilities (both physical and mental), determination, motivation, intentions, commitment,
violence potential, and target methodology.
1.
1. Intelligence Gathering. Answering who, what, when, where, why, and how forms the basis
for your research. Intelligence gathering does not equal Google!
a. Collection. Your collection of intelligence about the case must be planned and
focused. You need to be looking for trends, activities, actions, and dynamics.
1. Personal Contact. It may be possible to interview the victim or offender.
However, this opens up new wounds for victims and offenders lie. A better idea would be to
attempt to talk to the prosecutor, defense attorney, arresting officer, or original investigator.
2. CJ System. Police records, court records, probation officer files, correctional
data may be available on your offender.
3. Public Data Sources. Lexus/Nexus searches, local newspaper files, news
sites (FOX, ABC, etc), and micro-film (for old cases) are available.
4. Identify Hazards. A hazard is an actual or potential condition where injury,
illness, or death can occur. The analyst must consider possible hazards that may be encountered
by the victim and the offender.
a. Examine weather, lighting, terrain (environment), avenues of
approach, potential witnesses (or additional victims), and equipment (use of a car, weapon, or
mask).
b. Evaluation. Information should be evaluated to measure the reliability of the source
and estimate the validity.
1. Assess hazards. Risk is the chance of hazard or bad consequences. Examine
hazards in terms of probability and severity. Is there a reasonable expectation of something
happening? What is the degree of injury, illness, loss, or damage?
c. Collation. Separating fact from fiction and sifting out useless and non-relevant
information depends on examinations of information completed in an orderly manner to establish
relationships and disconnected elements.
1. Consider a Link Matrix Diagram to help you clarify associations and
information.
2. Recognition of information that could or should have alerted, warned, or
provided advanced information must be examined and possibly inferred.
2.
d. Analysis. Convert your bits and pieces of information into an assessment that has
meaning. Develop precise and valid inferences from the available information. What could have
been done; should have been done; should never have happened; could have been prevent (how);
and what can guide law enforcement in the next case. Without analysis you have just provided
another re-hash of previously known material (although not necessarily linked as well as you
have).
1. Tactical Analysis examines and determines specific criminal activity with the
goal of neutralizing it. The activities of the criminal and victim are examined up to 24 hours
before the crime. What activity and influences resulted in the criminal being where the victim
was at the time of incident?
2. Strategic Analysis: Based on the tactical analysis, provide an informed
judgment on how to neutralize the capabilities and violence potential of the offender and how to
better prepare the next victim for an encounter with a similar offender.
e. Reporting. Examine how the crime was reported to law enforcement. What actions
can be taken by a victim or society to ensure better reporting? How well is the law enforcement
report written and does it accurately reveal the crime, the victim actions, the criminal actions,
and law enforcement actions? Is the law enforcement report a court worthy document? Can a
future jurist read the report and understand the facts. Does the report answer the required
questions of a basic investigation: who, what, when, where, and how? (Note: why is not
necessary, but may be included).
f. Dissemination. How and when did the media get information on the case? Was the
media information correct? What was not reported that law enforcement kept close-hold (at least
for some time)? Did law enforcement seek all the information they needed?
2. Risk Analysis. A complete threat assessment analyzes the risks to the victim and the risk
taking by the offender.
a. Victim Risk. Victim risk examines and defines the amount of exposure to the
possibility of suffering harm or loss. Note that victims are not responsible for offender acts and
are not to be blamed for being responsible for crimes committed against them. Everyone is
vulnerable to some degree. How does the victim place themselves in danger?
3.
1. Categorizing Victim Risk.
a. Low Risk Victim. A person’s personal, professional, and social life
does not normally expose them to suffering harm or loss.
b. Medium Risk Victim. A person’s personal, professional, and social
life can expose them to suffering harm or loss.
c. High Risk Victim. A person’s personal, professional, and social life
always exposes them to suffering harm or loss.
2. Victim Lifestyle Risk. What is the risk to the victim based on their
personality and personal, professional, and social environments? Who is the victim and how do
they relate to hazards in their environment? Examine prevalent personality traits of the victim
that may set them up for danger. Examples: aggressiveness, anger, sexual behavior, emotional
stability, phobias, addictive issues, and self-destructive behavior.
3. Victim Incident Risk. What was the risk present at the moment of victim and
offender were linked together? What was the victim’s state of mind and what environmental
hazards contributed to the scene?
4. Location and Time of Occurrence. Was the victim in a place of where
criminal activity is the norm? How close (physically and virtually) was assistance to the victim?
Could the victim be physically isolated from others? Was it dark or light? Were other people
present or should there be others present?
5. Number of Victims. Did the amount of victims have an impact on safety or
vulnerability?
6. Intoxicants. Was the victim under the influence of alcohol or drugs?
b. Offender Risk. Offender risk examines and defines the amount of exposure to harm,
loss, identification, or capture the offender perceives when meeting or taking a victim. What
obstacles have to overcome in order to acquire the victim while avoid identification or capture?
What actions did the offender take to overcome those obstacles?
1. Modus Operandi Risk. MO risk examines ability of the offender by
determining the amount of skill, planning, and precautionary acts before, during, and after the
crime to garner the victim and avoid detection.
4.
a. Low MO Risk. Low risk for offenders is reflected in expert skill,
planning, and precautionary acts. Examples of low risk for offenders include: taking victims
who will not be missed or, at least, not missed for a long time; using locations where they
(offenders) can hide and where few witnesses are near; taking of strangers; taking victim to
secluded area; and choosing locations a great distance from where the offender lives or works.
b. High MO Risk. High risk for offenders is reflected by displaying no
skill, poor planning, and no precautionary acts. Examples of high risk for offenders includes:
taking of a victim is a well-lighted area with several witnesses and failing to cover their face or
tag number on their get-away car.
2. Offender Incident Risk. Offender incident risk is determined by examining
the amount of exposure to harm or loss the offender perceived during the event. As with MO
risk, an offender who attempts a sexual assault in front of the police station is at a high risk of
harm; conversely, an offender that attacks only at dark in a rural state park is at a low risk of
harm or loss (at least from the offender’s perspective).
3. Threat Assessment. The completion of the risk analysis paves the way for the production of
a threat assessment. A threat assessment details the priorities and informs potential victims and
law enforcement in advance of criminal acts. The threat assessment examines intervention
techniques, consequences of intervention, and crime prevention. Threat assessments attempt to
measure the threatened harm, likelihood of an occurrence, and the immediacy of harm to a
potential victim.
a. Capability and Probability Factor. What is the history of crime in the area being
examined? Has law enforcement taken any action or is the opportunity for crime the same?
Have arrests been made in this area? Is contact with law enforcement an expectation for the
offender in this area? When is the best time for crime in this area? What associated locations
might contribute to crime (bars, night clubs, massage parlors, strip clubs, etc.)? Has the
neighborhood retaliated against crime and criminals in the past? Is there a magnitude and
attitude of threatened harm in this area? Is there a low value on life in this area?
5.
b. Potential Targets. Who and what are the potential targets to criminals? Are
symbolic targets (as perceived by the offender) available (examples: prostitutes or clergy)?
Are targets “in the public eye,” in other words in view of neighbors, business cameras, or
witnesses? Are government facilities or businesses in the area that might attract law enforcement
officials to the area?
1. Vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the susceptibleness of a victim and the
amount of resistance a potential victim might display. Are targets easy to access and
controllable? Is there an inherent or exploitable weakness in potential victims (examples:
mentally challenged or children)? How and why are victims susceptible?
2. Intervention. What is the response time by law enforcement to the area of
operations chosen by the offender? Are potential victims armed? Do businesses in the area use
security guards? Are closed circuit television cameras mounted within eye-sight of the crime
scene?
4. Risk Analysis/Threat Assessment Report Format. Ensure you examine each area from the
victim and offender perspective.
a. Introduction.
b. Characters and Characteristics.
c. Criminal Predicate.
d. Warning Signs.
e. Target.
f. Consequences.
g. Conclusion.
h. Recommendations.
6.