WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Integrated Workshop Bangkok, Thailand 27 to 29 November 2013 FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY WRD/PTC_IWS/INF. 5 (21.XI 2013) ______________ AGENDA ITEM 11 ENGLISH ONLY ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN FOR 2013 Coordinated Technical Plan (CTP) for the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones - Annual Operating Plan for 2013 Expected Result Strategic Goal Activity ER-1 (Meteorology) Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones and storm surges. 1-a To improve and expand the observing system of surface, upper-air, ship, buoy, aircraft, radar and satellite observations in the Member countries. To strengthen of the cooperative relationship with the Airlines for development of the regional AMDAR programme (Members, WMO). 1-b To implement and operate adequate Members’ connection to the WMO Information System (WIS) for operation-critical data exchange through dedicated telecommunication means of the GTS, and through broadband Internet access for Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval service. 1-c To increase accuracy, timeliness and usefulness of tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. Members to implement plans to deploy WIS functionality. 1) To conduct case studies on the events where gaps were found in TC intensity analysis between RSMC and the Members (Oman, RSMC). 2) To establish and enhance the communication between the operational forecasters in RSMC and the Members (RSMC, PTC-S). 3) To develop collaborative links with the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project of WMO (Members, PTC-S, WMO) 4) To promote the use of Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) in partnership with WGDPP (WMO, Members). 5) To implement TC Landfall Forecast FDP (RSMC, Members) 6) To prepare an assessment report on the current status and needs of the Members with respect to data, products, analytical and forecasting procedures. 1 7) To arrange the training on Dvorak’s technique and application of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for tropical cyclone monitoring and prediction with the support of WMO. ER-2 (Hydrology) Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better hydrological forecasts and assessments. 1-d To extend the operational use of ensemble prediction techniques and probabilistic forecasts for more effective disaster risk assessment and management. 1-e To upgrade the computing facility of RSMC New Delhi and NMSs so as to facilitate efficient data processing and data assimilation from different observing systems/platforms to suit the national and regional needs. 1-f To establish a regional storm surge watch scheme to provide Members with the storm-surge advisories including daily marine processed data and information they require for real-time uses. 2-a To improve regional cooperation in real time monitoring and exchange of relevant data and information, derived (forecasting) products and technical expertise related to hydrological hazards. Having the Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Website established, RSMC New Delhi to improve the website with the feedback from the Members. (to be determined by RSMC New Delhi) To provide the graphical storm-surge forecast charts from RSMC New Delhi through collaboration between RSMC and IIT (led by B.K. and Prof Dube). 1) To develop and implement regional information exchange strategy during 2009- 2010. 2) To organize regional workshops on data transmission mechanisms with special reference to water related hazards and sharing information through PTC web site. 3) To collaborate with Commission for Hydrology (CHy) and Working Group on Hydrology of RA-II. 2 2-b To improve flood forecasts and warnings particularly in deltaic and coastal areas by coupling meteorological storm surge forecasts with river flow forecasting. 1) To develop delta hydraulic models for river forecasting by coupling MIKE 11 (or any other model being used in the countries) with the storm surge forecasts for at least one river delta in each country. 2) Developing/application of coastal flood models and associated flood hazard and risk maps in the line as mentioned above. 3) To organize workshops for enhancing the capabilities of the countries. 2-c To enhance regional capabilities relating to flood hazard mapping in delta and coastal regions through continued interaction with the user agencies. 1) To undertake flood hazard mapping at least in one major delta/coastal area in each country during the next five years. 2) To organize capacity building. ER-3 (DPP) Enhanced capabilities of Members to promote tropical cyclone disaster resilient communities through providing guidance on multihazard early warning dissemination and response mechanism. 2-d To improve management of water resources, including assessment of surface and ground water resources in relation to tropical cyclones. 3-a To improve regional cooperation in policies and strategies on DPP, especially those related to tropical cyclones. 3-b To promote regional information system to support development of policies and strategies on DPP at the regional level as well as at the national level. 3 workshops 3) To collaborate experiences with Committee. - - - and for share Typhoon 3-c To improve public awareness of the impacts of tropical cyclones and possible mitigation and response actions through effective communication with the media prior to, during, and after tropical cyclone occurrences. 3-d To Improve coordination and interaction between meteorological/hydrological services on the one hand and emergency management/disaster response agencies on the other hand through integrated emergency management, disaster response and preparedness programmes. 3-e To strengthen regional cooperation on DPP information exchange through networking. - 3-f To improve multi hazard disaster risk management, especially those related to cyclone-related disaster preparedness. ER-4 (Training) 4-a To arrange training Development of a programmes on the use of NWP strategic approach to model products and their capacity building with a application in Cyclone (track and regional perspective. intensity) and storm surge prediction. - 4-b To arrange training programmes on media coordination during disasters and their effectiveness on “human response”. 4-c To arrange training programmes on the use of Doppler Weather Radar products in Cyclone forecasting. 4-d To exchange visits of faculty members among Member countries to share their experiences and expertise on cyclone & related disaster management aspects. 4-e To enhance WMO’s fellowship support on tropical cyclone related programmes. 4 - - To produce a prioritized list of training needs and opportunities of PTC Members through a survey from PTC Secretariat (PTC-S, WMO, ESCAP) and advise WMO for reporting, planning and implementation purposes. - - - - ER-5 (Research) Enhanced capabilities of Members to cope with high impact weather through research. ER-6 (Partnership) Enhanced use of forecasts and warnings for tropical cyclones and storm surges for decision making and implementation by Members and partner organizations. ER-7 (Management and Governance) Effective management and functioning of the Panel. 5-a To produce regional assessment of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones. To collect data/materials/papers from the Member countries which are relevant to the regional assessment. 5-b To develop storm surge and river flood coupling model over specific river basins for forecasting of coastal inundation. 5-c To update vulnerability maps for various parameters like wind force/peak storm surge etc., based on latest available database. 6-a To promote exchange of information and data among Members to enhance regional cooperation in meteorology, hydrology, DPP, training and research. - 6-b To enhance cooperation with other regional bodies, organizations, service providers and sectors for more effective provision of the forecasts and warnings. 6-c To develop proposals of joint projects in the areas of five components including resource mobilization. - 7.a To improve the coordination and decision making process of the Panel. - 7.b To enhance effectiveness in implementation of CTP and AOPs. 7.c To ensure effective and collaborative relationships among working groups of Meteorology, Hydrology and DPP. 7-d To improve coordinated technical planning process as well as monitoring and evaluation. - 5 - - - - -