JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND
FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH
ACTIVITIES FOR 2009
Indonesia
1.
Summary of highlights
BMKG has not data processing for using in the model. For operational routine, BMKG uses the
model output from Meteo France (ARPEGE) and from Australian Bureau of Meteorolofy (TXLAPS).
Since 2007 BMKG has started running NWP model by using a lisenced model from CSIRO namely
Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). It is used mainly for research purposes. A test
periode for using in opration are in progress. In the Reserach and Develompent Center of BMKG
(R&D) severelas models are used to study the weather phenomena as well as provision of
weather forecast. The models that have been run are the MM5, WRF, RegCM3.
2.
Equipment in use
Linux cluster 6 CPUs (Dual Core) and 4 HP Xeon Server 2 x Quad Core.
3.
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4.
Data and Products from GTS in use
SYNOP
Upper air
NWP products
Tide observations
Forecasting system
4.1
System run schedule and forecast ranges
In operational routine BMKG uses a model output from Meteo France (Arpege) and from BoM
Australia (TXLAPS). BMKG does not run these models but using model output run by these
institutions. Output are ready to use by forecaster for forecasting weather up to 24 hour in
advance.
Another model output used is 10 meter wind from GFS. This model output is used to run BMKG’s
wave model for six hourly forecasting up to 168 hours. The model runs twice daily on the basis of
00 utc and 12 utc of GFS wind products
4.2
Medium range forecasting system (4-10 days)
Medium range forecasting provided are six hourly forecast up to 168 and weekly forecast of wind
and waves. The forecasting based on the BMKG’s wave model output with the wind input comes
from GFS.
4.2.1 Data assimilation, objective analysis and initialization
4.2.1.1 In operation
CCAM using GFS for initialization of model forecast.
4.2.1.2 Research performed in this field
In research mode CCAM are running in 8 days forecasts for 27KM resolution and 4 days forecast
for 9 KM resolution.
4.2.2 Model
4.2.2.1 In operation
In operational routine BMKG uses a model output from Meteo France (Arpege) and from BoM
Australia (TXLAPS).
4.2.2.2 Research performed in this field
For research purposes, BMKG uses a licenced NWP from CSIRO Australia namely The Cubic
Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). CCAM is hydrostatic model with 18 vertical level (sigma
level). Model is running using default option with 27 KM and 9 KM resolution. CCAM uses new
CSIRO mass-flux scheme including downdraft for cumulus convection, evaporation of rainfall,
GFDL parameterization for long and short wave radiation, derived prognostic from liquid water for
interactive cloud distribution, gravity-wave drag scheme, stability-dependent boundary layer and
vertical mixing with non-local option, vegetation/canopy scheme, and options for cumulus mixing of
trace gases. Research that has been performed are validation of the output model by comparing
the keys parameters such as temperature, pressure, precipitation, and wind speed.
4.2.3 Operationally available Numerical Weather Prediction Products
The output of NWP model in operational are available and only used by forecaser for supporting
them in preparing and deciding the daily weather forecast. The model output or product are not
accessible for public.
4.2.4 Operational techniques for application of NWP products (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert
Systems, etc.)
4.2.4.1 In operation
Both NWP products from ARPEGE and TXLAPS are ready available in graph format. They are
automated put in the server and using the GUI by what so called Synergy.
Operational technicques such as MOS, PPM AND KF not yet in opeartional used. The difficulty
arise from the lack of NWP product archieves for model development.
4.2.4.2 Research performed in this field
In reseach mode the output of CCAM as well as the MM5 are processed using a crontab capability
of Linux OS and automatically producing a web based graphs of several weather parameters.
Similar to the Synergy displaying system in operational routine, the R&D of BMKG also providing
such tools for helping forecaster in deciding the weather. Currently the R&D has not any
application of NWP products so that several keys of atmospheric parameters are directly
interpreted by forecaster.
4.2.5 Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
4.2.5.1 In operation
We have no any ensemble system for prediction. Even there are two models already used in last
five years (Arpege and TXLAPS) and currently a quasy operational of CCAM model, there are not
yet integrated into a single tools as an ensemble product for forecaster.
4.2.5.2 Research performed in this field
The R&D are studying a best performance of several NWP available in several centers such as the
as the MM5, the WRF, RegCm and others.
4.2.5.3 Operationally available EPS Products
4.3
Short-range forecasting system (0-72 hrs)
4.3.1 Data assimilation, objective analysis and initialization
4.3.1.1 In operation
4.3.1.2 Research performed in this field
A web based of MM5, CCAM products run by the R&D are available for short-range forecasting
system up 96 hours.The initial condition are using model output of GFS.
4.3.2 Model
4.3.2.1 In operation
The ARPEGE is the Limited Area Model of the Meteo France’s Numerical Weather Prediction. It is
a non-hydrostatic model with 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 15 model level. The Meteo
France has designed the model domain for Indonesia region and run in their system. Forecast
range up to 72 hours.
The TXLAPS is an Tropical eXtended Limited Area Prediction Systems of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology (BoM). It is the non-hydrostatic model with 0.375 degree horizontal resolution with 16
model levels. As explitly at its name the domain of the TXLAPS model is the extention of the
Australian region, i.e. 90 o E – 170 o E, 15o N – 40 o S. Therefore, it covers the Indonesia region.
Forecast range up to 48 hours.
4.3.2.2 Research performed in this field
The Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) is a streched grid model where the domain of
interest has the higher resolution and the grid is streched so that at the opposite pole it has a low
resolution. It is developed by CSIRO. BMKG has the lisence to use the model in research mode.
The model can be adjusted to reach very high resolution at the domain of interest. The vertical
resolution is 18 leves (sigma level). Forecast range up to 96 hours.
4.3.3 Operationally available NWP products
Six standard level, ground level, and mean sea level for several atmospheric parameters such as
temperature, wind, humidity, CAPE, geo-potential, vertical velocity, rain, and cloud cover.
4.3.4 Operational techniques for application of NWP products
4.3.4.1 In operation
Weather forecasting are performed by interpreting model outputs by forecaster. MOS, PPM, KF,
Expert Systems are not in operational used. Skill of forecaster plays an important role in the
performance of forecast products.
4.3.4.2 Research performed in this field
To be planned
4.3.5 Ensemble Prediction System
4.3.5.1 In operation
4.3.5.2 Research performed in this field
4.3.5.3 Operationally available EPS Products
4.4 Nowcasting and Very Short-range Forecasting Systems (0-6 hrs)
4.4.1
Nowcasting system
4.4.1.1 In operation
Interpretation of model outputs, weather radar, and satellite data.
4.4.1.2 Research performed in this field
Research on using SATAID data for extreme weather forecasting.
4.4.2
Models for Very Short-range Forecasting Systems
4.4.2.1 In operation
TXLAPS and ARPEGE products.
4.4.2.2
Research performed in this field
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4.5
Specialized numerical predictions
4.5.1 Assimilation of specific data, analysis and initialization (where applicable)
4.5.1.1 In operation
4.5.1.2 Research performed in this field
4.5.2 Specific Models
4.5.2.1 In operation
4.5.2.2 Research performed in this field
4.5.3
Specific products operationally available
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4.6
Extended range forecasts (ERF) (10 days to 30 days)
4.6.1 Models
4.6.1.1 In operation
4.6.1.2 Research performed in this field
4.6.2
Operationally available NWP model and EPS ERF products
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4.7
Long range forecasts (LRF) (30 days up to two years)
4.7.1 In operation
Running the dynamical model to complement the existing of statistical methods.
4.7.2 Research performed in this field
 Applying the existing dynamical model for long range forecast such as RegCM and CCAM.
 Comparison of model performance
 Develop the multivariate method for ANFIS, ARIMA and multi regression
4.7.2
Operationally available EPS LRF products
5.
5.1
Verification of prognostic products
5.2
Research performed in this field
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6.
Plans for the future (next 4 years)
6.1
Development of the GDPFS
6.2
Planned research Activities in NWP, Nowcasting and Long-range Forecasting
6.2.1 Planned Research Activities in NWP
 Parameterization of MM5, WRF, CCAM, Reg CM
 Comparison of best results for operational purpose
 Down scaling to the higher resolution
 Data assimilation of local observation
 Application of procedures in use for interpretation of NWP output (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert
Systems, etc.)
 Couple to the ocean model
 Ensemble prediction
6.2.2 Planned Research Activities in Nowcasting
 Use radar and satellite data to model initialization
6.2.3 Planned Research Activities in Long-range Forecasting
 Dynamical (numerical approach)
 Statistical approach
 Ensemble products (statistical and dynamical approach)
7.
References
"[information on where more detailed descriptions of different components of the DPFS can be found]"
(Indicate related Internet Web sites also)