This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
Expert meeting
«Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and
Talas Transboundary Basin»
Almaty, 5 November 2012
Summary of conclusions
The meeting was attended by experts from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, secretariat of the Chu-Talas
Commission from both countries as well as by the representatives of UNDP and UNECE, implementing
organizations. The agenda of the meeting is in annex 1 and the list of participants as annex 2.
Only the conclusions and some discussion points are summarized here.
- UNECE (Annukka Lipponen) and Yekaterina Sahvaeva reported on the presentations of the project by
Shamil Iliasov (complemented by Bo Libert and Iulia Trombitcaia from UNECE) and the related
discussions at the meeting of the Chu-Talas Commission (15 September 2012) and in the Stakeholder
meeting (23 October 2012) and Steering Committee meeting (24 October 2012) of the EU Water
Initiative’s National Policy Dialogue in Kyrgyzstan implemented by UNECE.
- Consultation with the Chu-Talas Commission: The presentation on the project in the previous
meeting of the Commission and the interest of the Commission to learn about the results of the
project need to be followed-up. According to the feedback, a general presentation (rather than a
very technical one) at the Commissions next meeting in the beginning of December 2012 would be
appropriate. The secretariat of the Commission reconfirmed that the Commission is interested in the
results and expressed confidence that there would be discussion on this in the next meeting. It was
agreed that if Amirkhan Kenshimov can be released by UNDP to represent, he should present. It was
agreed that UNECE will write an official letter to the co-chairs of the Commission, enclosing the list
of information needed by the sectoral experts for the vulnerability assessment.
- Modelling: Svetlana Dolgikh reported briefly on the findings of the essentially completed climate
change modelling. In the discussion, impacts on water requirements of agriculture were asked
about; there is no information available on this.
o Hydrological modeling: Mr. Kuzmichenok is not available to complete the extension of the
hydrological modeling to the Kazakh part of the Chu and Talas basins. Having the
coordination of the hydrological modeling is among his tasks under contract for the project ,
Mr. Iliasov was invited to explore the options and identify a feasible solution for completing
the modeling. Ms. Dolgikh will look into this with Mr. Iliasov. Even though the results of the
hydrological modeling are very important for assessing climate change impacts, the sectoral
experts work needs to proceed urgently also on Kazakh part of the basin. UNDP Kyrgyzstan
confirmed that the hydrological modeling information is available in useable form for the
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
-
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sectoral experts, especially as the results have been presented in sectoral seminars
organized by UNDP in the context of national adaptation strategy work in Kyrgyzstan.
o The time frame of interest in looking at the impacts of climate change was discussed. It was
acknowledged that even if the modeling can be easily extended to 2100, the uncertainty of
the results increases significantly. For the vulnerability assessment considering prediction of
flow and water requirements until 2050 makes sense.
The scope of the final report/assessment of vulnerability was discussed based on the draft structure
sent before the meeting. It was agreed that vulnerability is an important part of the work and a
deliverable agreed with the donors. As discussed in the July meeting, socio-economic aspects would
need to be considered in a cross-cutting fashion, to be contributed to be each sectoral expert (ToRs
to be revised accordingly).
Vulnerability assessment and the work of sectoral experts:
o The draft outline of the report/vulnerability assessment was agreed as the basis of compiling
the information, with the understanding that as the work proceeds, it may get modified
somewhat. By the next meeting of the Chu-Talas Commission i.e. the beginning of December
2012, the structure will be elaborated by the national coordinators (Ms. Dolgikh and Mr.
Iliasov) based on the input from the sector experts with sub-headings and short paragraphs
under the sub-headings describing the scope of each part of the report and the main aspects
to be addressed. A list of possible data needed by the experts from the Commission should
ideally already be enclosed to the letter to be sent by UNECE at the earliest. The experts
were invited to send their needs to the national coordinators.
o On agriculture (presented on by Auelbek Zaurbek), same datasets are available on land
resources from both countries; the approach just needs to be harmonized and the
parameters/indicators (effectiveness of infrastructure, cultures etc) to be used selected.
The Kyrgyz experts (Sahvaeva, Satimkulova) are willing to expand the approach used for the
preparation of the Kyrgyz national adaptation strategy to the whole basin, including in the
assessment e.g. land areas for different agricultural products, amount/volume of
production, import and export (with water as a proxy indicator) and dependency.
o There were different views on the scope of the input to the report on hydrological extremes
and disasters, mainly because of the different exposure of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to
their occurrence and because of a lack of clear linkage to climate change in some cases.
Since the information on hazards has been compiled in the UNDP project Climate Risk
Management in Central Asia, this can be used as input. It was concluded that since topic is
mainly pertinent to Kyrgyzstan, a Kyrgyz expert — Lira Joldubaeva — would be contracted to
prepare this input (including flooding, droughts, landslides etc. using the analysis done for
the basin plan, and complementing with the UNDP project’s information on climate related
hazards, as relevant) and she would integrate the Kazakh input which would largely be
limited to droughts. It was noted as a shortcoming of the (annually produced) hazard maps
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
-
in Kyrgyzstan that a proper retrospective check is lacking and there are no proper historical
statistics available.
o The sectoral experts were handed draft ToRs for preparing sectoral segments for the
(vulnerability) report and were invited to send their comments by the end of the week of the
meeting to UNDP/Natalia Alexeeva. The comments made in the meeting and by UNECE
before will be consolidated by UNDP to the final version. The need for each expert to take
into account socio-economic issues as a cross-cutting issue was underlined.
o UNDP office in Kyrgyzstan agreed to process the contracts of those experts from Kyrgyzstan
who preferred to deal with the local office. The rest of the expert contracts would be
established with Bratislava with Marcela Fabianova as the contact.
o The first draft inputs to the report are to be prepared by the end of January. Svetlana Dolgikh
will coordinate determining the deadlines for specific inputs, also with a view of the
presenting the elaborated structure at the Commission meeting in December; in more
general terms these are specified in the contracts.
The possible adaptation measures were discussed, considering existing plans and measures
envisaged therein (notably the management plan of the Talas River). Ms. Satimkulova’s input was
presented by Yekaterina Sahvaeva. It was noted that it would be good to integrate the case (or
cases) of economic aspects of a selected adaptation measure to be developed into the national
climate change adaptation strategy of Kyrgyzstan currently under preparation. The issues discussed
included the following:
o It underlines the usefulness of identifying adaptation measures in Kazakhstan that they are
absent in the main national strategies/plans (security, Green Economy). Compared to
climate change mitigation, adaptation gets little attention in the countries.
o To what degree the countries have already planned to use their water resources was
acknowledged among the key considerations in adaptation. Possible need for changing flow
(volume, timing) through regulation should be considered by the sectoral experts when
considering possible measures related to their topic.
o Concerning at least the Kyrgyz part, the Chu River will involve more work since there is
comparatively more work done already on the Talas.
o Emphasis would be put on no-regret measures (which in any case make sense irrespective of
the timing and severity of climate change), because of both the uncertainty related to the
impact of the change but also the difficulty of implementing measures due to costs and
political difficulty.
o Some general orientations of possible adaptation measures were identified in the discussion,
namely:
 Target current irrigation subsidizes to support efficient water usage (save water)
 New, planned, water storages (costs)
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin

Improve water efficiency - pilot studies meter water, repair irrigation system,
change farming practices
 Appropriate use of the reservoirs (timing and volume of releases)
 Careful assessment of water availability before decisions to construct infrastructure
o The draft list of possible adaptation measures included by Yekaterina Sahvaeva in her
presentation based on the current plans is taken as input for developing the report segment
on adaptation. These include both structural measures like construction of a new reservoir
on the Aspara tributary of the Chu and Chui canal but also non-structural measures related
to management and improving water efficiency (please see annex 3 for a full list).
o Leif Iversen is preparing a draft proposal for a management plan for the Chu River in the
framework of the NDP Kyrgyzstan. UNDP (Natalia Alexeeva) will contact him for
coordination, for possibly linking up the adaptation proposals from the project also to the
existing or planned water management plans/documents.
o Possible adaptation measures at the river basins’ level were discussed broadly following Jari
Silander’s presentation and the following were identified:
1. Repair irrigation system to reduce leakages or conversion of irrigated land that is
currently not useable
2. Development of additional storage
3. Revision of subsidy policy
4. Volumetric water allocation and pricing
5. Adjustment of flow regulation regime
6. Change of agricultural crop species
7. Do nothing
Selected ones from among the possible measures could serve as case options for the
economic assessment to be analyzed. Strategic economy study includes a first assessment of
potential benefits of feasible adaptation options from the economic standpoint of the nation
(excluding taxes). Some adaptation options are only relevant for one country and feasible
options for both countries —ideally mutually beneficial —should explored.
Depending on the options selected, some of the above can be quantified in monetary terms
and for some only a qualitative description is possible.
If no other options will be suggested within a week from the meeting, these preliminary
ideas (the three first as priority) will be developed for presentation at the Commission’s
meeting. Requiring parties involved to provide preliminary costs associated with these
options.
It was agreed in the meeting that the Commission’s preference would be sought (if any) for
the choice of a case (or max. 2 cases). The Finnish Environment Institute can provide
methodological guidance and advice in the development of the case(s). There are other
benefits associated with water reservoirs; these could be included if needed.
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
o The next meetings’ (at least 2 needed – 1 expert meeting and 1 wider stakeholder meeting)
timing in 2013 will need to be optimized as a function of the advancement of the work, but
also taking into account possibilities of economizing on the meeting costs by linking to other
projects’ meetings like those of UNDP’s Climate Change Risk Management in Central Asia.
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
Annex 1
Expert meeting
«Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation to the Climate Change in
the Chu-Talas Transboundary Basin»
Agenda
Date: 5 November 2012
Language: Russian (with consecutive interpretation into English)
Place: 2d Timiyazev Street, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Purpose of the meeting:presenting the modelling results so far; getting expert views
on national/sector inputs to the vulnerability report, detailing and synchronizing them;
agreeing on the way ahead with adaptation measures/recommendations and further
steps.
Date: 5 November 2012, Monday
09:00-09:15
Opening of the meeting, brief introduction into the aims and objectives
09:15-10:00
Presentation of the results of the climate change modelling for the basin –
overview by Ms. Svetlana Dolgih & Mr. Shamil Ilyasov, project experts
General discussion including implications to vulnerability
General discussion
10:00 – 11:00
Vulnerability assessment report – proposals /contributions made by the
experts
Proposal for the overall organization of expert work for the vulnerability
assessment: Ms. Svetlana Dolgih & Mr. Shamil Iliasov
Feedback from Kyrgyz stakeholders during the NPD meeting – Mr. Shamil Iliasov
Infrastructure & water economy: Ms. Ekaterina Sakhvaeva
Agriculture and Environment: Mr. Auelbek Zaurbek
DRR: Ms. Lira Joldubaeva
Other considerations
General discussion on the content and the process of putting together the
vulnerability assessment, agreeing on the scope of the different parts of the
vulnerability assessment
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
11:00 – 11:20
Coffee break
11:20-13:00
Vulnerability assessment report – proposals /contributions made by the
experts – continued
13:00-14:00
Lunch
14:00-14:30
Previous session continues
14:30 – 15:40
National adaptation strategies and plans and review of water
management measures envisaged at basin level
Ms. Ekaterina Sahvaeva and Mr. Shamil Iliasov, Kyrgyzstan
Ms. Svetlana Dolgikh and Mr. Amirkhan Kenshimov, Kazakhstan
15:40- 16:00
Coffee break
16:00 – 17:00
Economic aspects of the adaptation
Proposals on priority case studies and data needs – Mr. Jari Silander, SYKE,
Finland
General discussion
16:45-17:50
Proposals on the adaptation measures and the next steps: agreement on
the deadlines and responsibilities
17:50-18:00
AOB/Closing the meeting
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
Annex 2
Participants:
Kazakhstan
Auelbek Zaurbek
Expert on water and environment, Kazakhstan
Svetlana Dolgih
Climate project expert, Kahydromet, Kazakhstan
Anzhela Domran
Leading specialist, Kahydromet, Kazakhstan
Amirkhan
Kenshimov
UNDP Kazakhstan, IWRM project expert
Indira Akbozova
Head of Kazakhstan part Secretariat of Chu-Talas Commission
Kyrgyzstan
Tilek Isabekov
Head of Kyrgyzstan part, Secretariat of Chu-Talas Commission
Lira Joldubaeva
DRR expert, CAIAG
Ekaterina
Sahvaeva
Water Management Department, Expert on hydrology and infrastructure
Shamil Iliasov
Climate project expert, Kyrgyzstan
Ryspek Apasov
Water Expert, UNDP Kyrgyzstan
International organizations
Yegor Volovik
UNDP BRC, Coordinator of Central Asian Climate Risk Management
programme
Marcela Fabianova
UNDP BRC, Water Programme Analyst
Natalia Alexeeva
UNDP BRC, IWRM expert
Alexander
Temirbekov
UNDP Kyrgyzstan, environmental project manager
Annukka Lipponen
UNECE, Convention on the Protection and Use of the Transboundary
Watercourses and International Lakes
Madina Ibrasheva
OSCE
Jari Silander
SYKE, Finland
This project is part-funded
by the European Union
Development of cooperation on adaptation to climate change in the Chu-Talsa transboundary basin
Annex 3