Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) Global Task Force, scenario-writing
group.
Maggie Kosal
Mansour Rahimi
Miriam Leis
Philippe Van Nedervelde
Stef Christensen
Tristan Hambling
SCENARIO # 5: ... And Not a Drop to Drink
Timeline
2007: Russia makes the announcement that it's pursuing molecular
nanotechnology, hoping to restore it's global economic status and
prestige. The United States does not appear to respond - perhaps
because the US is too distracted by other issues.
2009: Terrorist attack on the massive water pipes from Malaysia to
Singapore leads to critical water shortages in Singapore. The attacks
took place at the Malaysian end, and Singapore believes that Malaysia
didn't try hard enough to stop it. Malaysia and others in the area
are also upset that Singapore is so closely associated with the US.
Singapore decides that it wants to achieve an independent water
supply, and realizes that with water supplies around the world growing
ever tighter, this could be a major market for them. To that end,
they decide to develop nanotechnology capabilities to produce high
production volume, high efficiency water filter technology. In a
parallel effort, Singapore gathers experts from around the world to
take nanotechnology to the next step - general purpose molecular
manufacturing.
2010: Around this time, a major breakthrough in the fight against
AIDs - a relatively inexpensive treatment is developed that shows
great success.
2011: In a surge of humanitarian effort, the world finances the rapid
roll-out of the new AIDs treatment to African nations. While great
difficulties of implementation are encountered, enough money is put
into the effort to drive it forward over the next few years, with
great success.
2012: Russia successfully develops 'conventional nanotechnology' pre-MNT - water-filters, and the manufacturing technologies needed to
produce them in large quantities. They begin developing a new
industry around water purification and de-salination. Not only after
money but prestige as well. Ukraine, Iran, and Poland are two
countries they ship filters to.
2012: Russia proposes to the UN that the members finance - as a
humanitarian measure - installation of water recycling plants in the
most impoverished and drought ridden African nations. The UN agrees,
and Russia is awarded the contracts. Russia pushes ahead rapidly.
2015: Singapore develops a limited method of molecular manufacturing
to produce their filters in the quantity they need. This technology
is a precursor to full-fledged molecular manufacturing - beyond
chemical or random assembly, but well short of "nanofactory" level.
2016: Singapore starts to produce factories that use pre-MNT
nanotechnology to mass-produce these effective water filters. They
sell them to many other countries. Perhaps influenced by the United
States, Singapore will not build manufacturing plants in certain
countries - particularly China, though they are willing to sell the
filtration plants to those countries. Meanwhile, there is competition
with Russia which causes further friction.
2016: By 2016, concern is growing in Africa - it appears that a new
strain of AIDs may be taking hold - some people showing AIDs symptoms
are not responding to the AIDs drugs.
2016: A WHO researcher notes a strange correlation - while clean
water has greatly decreased the incidence of some parasite born
diseases in areas where the Russian filter technologies have
implemented, it is exactly those areas where the AIDs treatment
resistence seems strongest. Investigation quickly uncovers a problem
with the filtration plants, which has created a "Legionaire-like"
problem - a biological contamination that is infecting consumers of
the water. Several of the filtration plants are destroyed in massive
riots when the news breaks. Russia won't admit it made a mistake
right away. The United States pushes for the creation of a subgroup
of World Health Organization to regulate nanotech water filters.
Russia pushes back, complaining that the US and Singapore are trying
to interfere with it's growing success.
2016: Also in 2016 Terrorists take over a Singaporean nanotechnology
filtration production plant, and then appear to blow it up, killing
themselves. However, no terrorist group claims responsibility, and
in fact several deny responsibility.
2017: China begins building their own nanotech filtration plants,
claiming that this is based on their own development efforts. Experts
in the field find this somewhat unexpected. Accusations are made of
industrial espionage tied to the previous year's attacks. Over the
next few years, China begins producing and marketing their filters, as
well as applying them within China.
2019: By 2019, Singapore has greatly elaborated their molecular
manufacturing capabilities and begins to introduce actual
nanofactories.
2019: The United States makes a move to enforce the international
regulations on nanotech filters, that happens to reveal that they've
been working on it quietly all along. They have molecular
manufacturing and it is a surprise.
2020+: If you can make your own water and energy, why obey the
central government? The fragmentation issue. Around the end of the
scenario the breakdown of states occurs. Is the fragmentation
fundamentally bad? There may be fighting, may not be, but this is a
major issue of concern.
Scenario
Water is crucial to the tiny island nation of Singapore. Surrounded by
the sea, they get 50 percent of their potable water supply from
rainfall and the other 50 percent purchased from Malaysia, through a
dual pipeline that runs across the Straits of Johor. The MalaysiaSingapore water agreement is due to run out in 2011 and a disagreement
over the price of water has caused negotiations between the two
countries to stall. In an effort to increase water supply, catchments,
recycling and desalination projects have been in the works since the
early '00s, as well as water conservation practices.
In a bid for water self-sufficiency, Singapore opened its first
desalination plant in 2005. At the time, experts suggested that
Singapore could become the world's water hub for water recycling and
desalination technology and could export this technology to the world,
based on their success with previous economic initiatives in science
and technology. (Although this scenario focuses on water, similar
events are taking place due to growing pressure on energy and
agricultural staple products.)
In April of 2007, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would "pour
over US$1 billion in the next three years into equipment for
nanotechnology research," hoping to restore its global economic status
and prestige. The United States did not appear to respond, perhaps
because it was too distracted by other issues...
In 2009, terrorists attack the massive Malaysia-Singapore water
pipelines. Among the top suspects is Jemaah Islamiyah, a group of
Southeast Asian Islamic Jihadists based in Indonesia, but with cells
in Malaysia. They have a history of attempted attacks on Singapore,
but had been successfully foiled before. The attacks occurred on the
Malaysian end of the pipeline and Singapore believes that Malaysia,
which is an Islamic country, did not try hard enough to stop it.
Malaysia has been upset over Singapore's close political and economic
ties to the US for many years and Singapore suspects it was also a
convenient tactic to leverage the water pipeline renegotiations.
Neither Malaysia nor Singapore is eager to pay for rebuilding the
pipeline, and the relationship becomes increasingly difficult and
antagonistic; in the end, no deal will be struck.
Draconian water conservation efforts are initiated in Singapore, and
the populace cooperates in their time of need. While they purchase
water from neighbors like Indonesia and others, Singapore is desperate
for an independent water supply. The ongoing critical shortage
provides the impetus for considerable investment of money and energy.
A joint government-commercial effort gathers experts from around the
world and invests heavily in an R&D infrastructure, developing
nanotechnologies to produce high production volume, high efficiency
water filtration systems suitable for recycling. A fraction of this
effort is aimed at a general-purpose molecular manufacturing
capability.
Meanwhile, a major breakthrough occurs in the fight against AIDS when
a relatively inexpensive treatment shows great success. By 2011,
philanthropists, including the Gates Foundation, fund the huge
humanitarian effort for its worldwide roll-out to African nations.
While unsurprising implementation difficulties are encountered with
certain African governments and clerics, money paves the way, to great
success. An economic revival clashes with severe drought in several
areas, creating a demand for clean water that can only be supplied by
technology.
Five years after their announcement in 2007, Russia successfully
develops 'conventional nanotechnology' as part of their creation of a
viable nanotechnology industry and offers pre-MNT water filters, and
the manufacturing needed to produce them in large quantities to the
world, developing a new water purification and desalination industry.
Russian desalination technology is installed along coastlines in many
areas of the world.
In 2015, Singapore develops a limited molecular manufacturing method
to produce filters in the quantities they need. This technology is a
precursor to full-fledged molecular manufacturing, in that it is
beyond chemical or random assembly, but well short of a generalpurpose nanofactory. Within a year, they are mass-producing water
filters capable of recycling water from any source. The Singaporean
technology requires less energy than the Russian, and solves
wastewater disposal problems as well; it is used in the interior of
continents, including Africa, and is used heavily in many areas of
Asia. Perhaps influenced by the United States, Singapore will not
license and build manufacturing plants in certain US-unfriendly
countries, including China, although they are willing to install
filtration plants in those countries.
By 2016, it appears that a new disease may be spreading in several
parts of the world. Patients exhibit severe brain damage, somewhat of
a cross between meningitis and spongiform encephalopathy (prion
diseases).
A WHO researcher makes a shocking correlation. While the clean water
provided by Singapore's filtration systems has greatly decreased the
incidence of parasitical diseases in many areas, the new brain disease
occurs in those same geographical regions serviced by Singaporean
water filters. Investigation quickly uncovers a problem with the
Singaporean systems: although most pathogens are filtered out, a rare
human virus is encapsulated so that it can survive post-filtration
treatment and cross the blood-brain barrier. When the news breaks,
several plants are destroyed in massive riots in Africa, increasing
that continent's political instability. Other affected nations
threaten to cut economic ties with Singapore until they deal with the
problem, but with its pride and prestige on the line, Singapore won't
admit to the mistake right away. The US pushes for the creation of a
WHO subgroup to regulate nanotech water filters, but Singapore shoves
back, refusing to comply and complaining that the US and Russia are
trying to squelch its successful industry solely for their economic
gain.
In 2017, China begins to export water filters, asserting they are
based on their long-running R&D efforts. Experts find this not only
unexpected, but unlikely given the similarities to the Singaporean
model and outbreaks of brain disease associated with Chinese filters.
Singapore accuses China of industrial espionage. But given Singapore's
diminutive size and lack of power over the giant to the North, all
they can do is complain. Meanwhile, China accuses Singapore of
deliberately spreading the disease--despite the fact that Singapore
itself is heavily affected. Once the design problem is corrected,
Chinese filters suffer less stigma than Singaporean ones, and the two
countries continue to compete and even to rattle sabers over the next
half-decade.
In 2019, Singapore's molecular manufacturing capabilities mature and
they introduce general-purpose nanofactories, manufacturing a host of
high-performance goods for export. They epitomize the next step of the
"Asian Tiger" economic model.
The United States moves to establish and enforce international
regulations on all nanotechnologies, including nanofilters. In the
process, they reveal a big surprise to the international community:
They have molecular manufacturing. They've been secretly working on it
all along, funded by the government in an attempt to control molecular
manufacturing before the nano-genie could escape the nano-lamp. The
nanomanufacturing game changes yet again, to include North America in
the competition. Several key American patents, which had been
concealed due to national security concerns, are unveiled, and it
turns out that Russian as well as Chinese/Singaporean water filters
are covered--not to mention Singaporean nanofactories. American
holding corporations immediately sue for tens of billions of dollars
of infringement, ratcheting up economic tensions around the world.
In the early 2020's, many regions around the world are asking the same
political question: If nanofactory-based infrastructure allows regions
to make their own water and energy (nanotech-aided energy production
has happened concurrently to the water issue), providing the basis of
political autonomy, why should they answer to a central or foreign
authority which often has an agenda, culture or history in opposition
with their own, and which demands high rates for the use of
nanofactory technology? The balkanization of the world accelerates,
causing conflicts to flare in some regions and abate in others.
================