Disaster Risk Reduction Op-ed
April 2007
(936 words)
Polar bears have evolved over thousands to years to adapt to a harsh climate. Today, we
see some of these magnificent animals stranded on melting ice floes. This time the bears
have no time to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. In a few decades, they could face
extinction. Do we have to be like the polar bears as rising sea levels, more extreme
weather, intensive storms, flooding, heat waves, and droughts come our way, as scientists
agree they will?
Of course not. Unlike polar bears, we can adapt quickly to protect ourselves from natural
hazards. Using simple, cost-effective methods, we can save lives, land and livelihoods.
We have the knowledge and experience to make a critical difference. What’s needed is
the will to do so today, before the next disaster strikes.
The point is that we have no time to waste. This is not just about climate change. Rapid
urbanization and population growth mean more people are now at risk in any case. Over
the last thirty years, disasters have affected five times more people than they did only a
generation ago. Mega-cities built on seismic areas or exposed coastlines are at particular
risk. In cities such as Mumbai, Cairo, Mexico City and Lagos, each with more than 10
million residents, decaying infrastructure, land erosion, crowded conditions, and a
paucity of rescue services could spell potential calamity should a major quake or series of
storms hit.
But climate change will certainly exacerbate our vulnerability to disasters. As outlined in
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, global warming could put
hundreds of millions of people at increased risk. For example, increased rainfall will
trigger floods and landslides; more frequent droughts will affect water availability and
crop yields; higher temperatures will bring more heat waves; and warmer oceans will
produce more intensive storms.
So what can we do? Plenty. We must be neither frozen by fear or despair, nor lulled into
a sense of complacency that technology will somehow rescue us. It’s time to get to work
in building more disaster-resilient communities. And since, as always, the poorest
countries and communities are the most vulnerable, that is where we need to start.
The good news is that the tools needed are not expensive, particularly compared with the
potential costs of disaster. Experts estimate that a dollar invested today in risk reduction
can save up to seven dollars in relief and recovery costs tomorrow. Many of the most
effective tools are simply about mobilizing people, not expensive technology, to save
lives. Community-based early warning systems, local disaster education and evacuation
plans, better crop and land management techniques – all this and more is being done with
great ingenuity and success in some of the world’s most impoverished countries.
Some simple knowledge of the dangers is the most effective risk reduction mechanism of
all. On Simeulue Island, Indonesia, situated near the epicenter of the 2004 tsunami,
residents had been taught by preceding generations what to do if an earthquake struck and
the ocean suddenly receded, as it did on December 26, 2004: head straight for the hills.
scharfc@Un.org
As a result, fewer than ten of the island’s 78,000 inhabitants were killed by the giant
waves. In nearby Aceh, no such community knowledge or warning system existed. In
some areas, up to 90% of the population perished.
In Bangladesh, devastating cyclones swept the country in 1970 and again in 1991, killing
half a million people. A community-based, ‘human early warning system’ was set up
along the Bay of Bengal. Villagers were trained how to build cyclone shelters, design
evacuation plans, and other simple measures. In recent years, the death toll from
monsoons and heavy rains has fallen dramatically.
For effective disaster preparedness and education, look at Cuba. In September 2004, the
fifth-largest hurricane ever to hit the Caribbean struck the island with winds of 124 miles
per hour. Nearly two million people--more than 15 percent of the total population-– were
safely evacuated. No one was killed. The following summer, Hurricane Dennis hit 12 of
Cuba’s 14 provinces, affecting some 8 million people (70% of the population). Thanks to
effective community mobilization and evacuation efforts, fewer than 20 people died.
Better land use policies can also save lives, particularly in overpopulated or heavily
eroded areas. In 2004, a hurricane killed nearly 3,000 people in Haiti, but caused only a
handful of deaths on the other half of the island. The difference? Mangrove trees planted
along the Dominican Republic’s shoreline buffered high wind and waves, while wellforested hillsides prevented deadly mudslides.
Risk reduction is one of the best insurance policies we can take out to protect investment
in development. Overnight, a major disaster can destroy decades of development gains.
In Pakistan, the 2005 quake cost the country $5 billion in damages -- approximately the
same amount the World Bank lent the country over the last decade. In 1998, Hurricane
Mitch caused losses equal to 41% of Honduras’s GDP. In the Maldives, 66% of its GDP
was wiped out by the 2004 tsunami.
We cannot stop the earthquakes, or the tsunamis, or the hurricanes. But natural hazards
need not lead automatically to human catastrophe. Countries and regions, towns and
villages, must redouble their efforts, to invest in the simple, life-saving measures that can
reduce their vulnerability to disasters and a changing climate. The upcoming Global
Platform in June, spearheaded by the Geneva-based International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (ISDR) organization, will bring together governments, scientists, nongovernmental organizations, the United Nations and financial institutions to look at
practical ways at doing this.
We really do not have to go the way of the polar bears.
John Holmes is United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs
and Emergency Relief Coordinator. He also serves as Chair of the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
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Disaster Risk Reduction Op-ed March 22, 2007
scharfc@Un.org