Causes and Consequences of Mesospheric Water Vapor Layers Address the causes and consequences of the layered water vapor distribution observed in the low latitude mesosphere (Summers et al., Science, 277, 1967, 1997a; Summers and Siskind, GRL, 26, 1837, 1999) and its connection with layer(s) of elevated water vapor observed at high polar latitudes (Summers et al., GRL, 28, 3601, 2001). The former are arguably a consequence of heterogeneous chemistry, whereas the later may be due to both water condensation/sublimation physics associated with polar mesospheric clouds (Stevens et al., GRL, 28, 4449, 2001; Hervig et al., GRL, 28, 971, 2001) and heterogeneous chemistry. This research will use UARS HALOE water vapor observations (1991-present) to characterize the mesospheric water vapor layer and its annual variation 1) use HALOE observations (1991-2005) to characterize the mesospheric water vapor layer and its annual variation (formation and evolution of the water vapor layer). 3) investigate the role of heterogeneous chemistry and surface/gas exchange on meteoric dust as a source of the water vapor layer, and Not much here—only articles. 4) explore the possibility that this layer is causally connected to the formation and evolution of polar mesospheric clouds. Science Question: (not answered…) Can heterogeneous chemistry or surface/gas exchange on meteor dust provide the required source of water to explain the observed mesospheric water vapor layer and its annual variability, and is this layer causally connected to polar mesospheric cloud formation? Revised: What is the variability of water vapor in the mesosphere? How is the observed mesospheric water vapor layer connected to polar mesospheric cloud formation? What is its annual variability? Sources & circulation The dominant sources and sinks of water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere are generally thought to be reasonably well understood (Allen et al., 1984; Brasseur and Solomon, 1986; LeTexier et al., 1988). Water vapor enters the tropical stratosphere though upward advection from the troposphere. The cold tropospheric temperature acts as a valve to severely limit the amount of water vapor that can actually enter the stratosphere. In addition, this upward advection carries tropospheric methane into the stratosphere where it is oxidized to form approximately two water molecules for every methane molecule. These two sources produce a water vapor profile with a mixing ratio increasing with altitude in the stratosphere, peaking between 50-60 km altitude at a value of 6-7 ppmv (Summers et 1 al., 1997b). Above this altitude the photolysis of water and its reaction with O(1D) leads to a decreasing water vapor mixing ratio with altitude. This general picture is illustrated in Figure 1 where we show a zonal average V. 19 water vapor distribution taken from the HALOE (Russell et al., 1993) experiment on the UARS satellite for the time period late March through April, 2002 (http://haloedata.larc.nasa.gov/home.html). The water vapor abundance at low latitudes generally peaks between 0.4 and 1.0 mbar (approximately 46 – 55 km). Water layer However, it is evident from an examination of HALOE mesospheric water vapor that a secondary peak is present between 60-70 km altitude (~0.05-0.01 mbar). This second peak reflects a layer of water vapor that is completely unexpected on the basis of classical gas phase chemistry (Summers et al., 1997a; 1997b; Summers and Siskind, 1999). The location of this second layer is exactly where conventional mesospheric chemistry predicts net water vapor loss, not production (Brasseur and Solomon, 1986). The fact that there is a peak in water vapor mixing ratio at that location implies a local source (Summers and Siskind, 1999). Confirmation of this layer’s existence comes from independent satellite measurements of enhanced OH emission from this region of the atmosphere made with the MAHRSI experiment (Conway et al., 1996; 1999; 2000; Summers et al., 1997). This second layer of water vapor is a robust feature of the tropical mesosphere, and is present throughout the year as observed in almost 12 years of HALOE measurements (see also Summers and Conway, 2000) … and it appears in the 14-year average. Although this layer most often appears limited to low latitudes (within 35o of the equator), it sometimes appears morphologically extended to high latitudes, especially in the summer hemisphere. This is seen in Figure 1 where the layer appears to dip slightly in altitude at mid-southern latitudes before it rises to peak near 0.03 mbar (70-75 km) at high southern latitudes. Figure 2 shows the analogous situation for the northern hemisphere where the low latitude layer extends to high northern latitudes. Recent analysis of high latitude HALOE water vapor data show that this mesospheric water vapor layer extends to Polar Mesosphere Cloud (PMC) latitudes, 65-70oN (Hervig et al., 2003) as seen in Figure 3, but at a lower altitude than where PMCs form (typically 80-83 km altitude). Remarkably, this lower altitude enhanced water vapor layer appears to evolve simultaneously with the enhanced water observed coincident with the PMC layer as shown in Figure 4(b), and may even “pre-condition” the formation of PMCs by increasing the relative humidity of the mesosphere and thus decreasing the temperature drop necessary for condensation to occur (Summers et al., 2001). The source of the secondary H2O layer in the 60-75 km range is very unlikely to be condensation/evaporation of ice particles because the atmospheric temperatures there are much too high for ice particle formation (Reid, 1975, Thomas, 1991). One possibility is conversion of H2 to H2O by heterogeneous chemistry (Summers and Siskind, 1999). An important clue here is that the peak H2O mixing ratio is about 8 ppmv, almost exactly the amount of H2O that would result is all available H2 is converted to H2O. This suggests an unconventional form of mesospheric chemistry that produces this result. 2 Figure 1. Water vapor daily averages from HALOE sunrise measurements during early Spring, 2002. Figure 2. Water vapor daily averages from HALOE Sunset measurements for late-spring early summer, 1999. 3 Figure 3. Average profiles based on HALOE measurements from 65°–70°N during 1992–2002 in 10-day time bins. a) Water vapor profiles corresponding to the beginning and end of the PMC season. b) H2O(ice) compared to the difference between the August 4 and June 5 H2O profiles (“H2O increase”), from Hervig et al. (2003). Heterogeneous chemistry Summers and Siskind (1999) proposed heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of meteoric dust as a possible means of producing the mesospheric water vapor layer. The reaction O + H2 H2O (1) on meteoric dust is a plausible means of conversion of H2 back into H2O, its source molecule. Meteoric dust is produced in the atmosphere as a consequence of ablation of incoming cosmic dust particles, followed by re-condensation (Hunten et al., 1980). Most of these re-condensed particles are expected to be very small, on the order of 1 nm in radius. Middle atmospheric winds will exert a controlling influence on the distribution of such small particles. For example, at low latitudes vertical upwelling will counter their sedimentation, as seen in Figure 5, where the sedimentation time scale is shown for meteoric dust particles of 1, 3, and 10 nm. The time scales for vertical advection, eddy mixing, and meridional (horizontal) transport here were obtained from a two dimensional chemical-dynamical model (Summers et al., 1997b) and averaged over a latitude within 5o of the equator. The coagulation time scale is shown for a Gaussian dust distribution of dust centered at 70 km altitude with a 6 km half width (see Summers and Siskind, 1999 for more details). As suggested by the figure, vertical advection will tend to confine small (1-10nm) dust particles to region between ~60-80km in altitude. The 4 ultimate loss of these small particles will be due to both coagulation to form larger particles that fall faster, and meridional (horizontal) advection to higher latitudes. Figure 4. Seasonal cross sections of HALOE measurements for 65°–70°N during 1992–2002 averaged in 10-day time bins. Shown are a) temperature, b) water vapor, and c) the water vapor resulting from PMC evaporation, H2O(ice). d) The average water vapor and H2O(ice) measured at 83.1 km altitude, with standard deviations indicated by shaded regions. The increase in water vapor after PMC appearance (“H2O increase”) is also shown. The H2O increase was determined by subtracting the water vapor amount (4.8 ppmv) for the first time bin containing PMCs (June 5) from the entire H2O time series (from Hervig et al., 2003). 5 Figure 5. Comparison of sedimentation, advective, mixing and coagulation time scales for meteoritic dust at low latitudes (Summers and Siskind, 1999). Although the mixing ratio of H2 is expected to be roughly constant in the 60-70 km altitude region, the abundance of atomic oxygen increases dramatically with altitude over this range (Brasseur and Solomon, 1986). The enhancement of meteoric dust and the high abundances of O in the 60-80 km altitude region provide necessary conditions for reaction (1) to proceed. One also expects the dust layer to evolve similarly to the observed water layer, i.e., the dust layer will move to higher altitudes in the summer hemisphere in response to predominantly upward advection in that hemisphere (driven by solar heating and wave-mean flow momentum forcing). Figure 6 shows two-dimensional model calculations of the effect of reaction (1) on the water vapor abundance, assuming an imposed distribution of meteoric dust. For comparison, the observed water vapor mixing ratio obtained from a 5 year climatology of HALOE data, averaged over a 6 week period after equinox, and within 5o of the equator, is also shown. This H2O data is the same as in Figure 2 of Siskind and Summers (1998) and encompasses the period studied by Summers et al. (1997a). Here we show two-dimensional model results for the trace gases H2O and H2 for three different model assumptions. Model case So assumes only standard gas phase chemistry (DeMore et al., 1997). Model case S1 is the standard model with the additional of surface chemistry for converting H2 to H2O via equation (1), an assumed distribution of meteoric dust surface area per unit volume that is constant with altitude in the mesosphere (cf. Hunten et al., 1980), and a reaction probability of 0.01. Model case S2 assumes a Gaussian distribution of dust peaking at 70 km altitude, with a half width of 6 km, and a reaction probability of 0.02. Assuming a very modest reaction probability of 0.01-0.02 6 leads to the conversion of all H2 into H2O, right at the region where the mesospheric water vapor layer is observed. Figure 6. (a) Observed water vapor mixing ratio obtained from a 5 year climatology of HALOE data, averaged over a 6 week period after equinox, and within 5o of the equator, and comparisons with two-dimensional model results utilizing gas phase chemistry and putative heterogeneous chemistry on meteoric dust. (b) Chemical H2O and H2 production (P) and loss (L) rates for gas phase chemistry and heterogeneous production of H2O (S). 7 This entire section goes with the model program… The two dimensional model calculations shown above suggest that heterogeneous chemistry on meteoric dust may play an important role in the formation of the mesospheric water vapor layer, but they are not conclusive. Perhaps the most critical assumption in the model calculations is that regarding the distribution of meteoric dust. Although the assumed distribution is plausible based upon a comparison of transport timescales, it has not been demonstrated quantitatively using an atmospheric model that includes meteoric ablation, condensation, coagulation, and dust transport. The Hunten et al. (1980) paper was onedimensional and completely ignored the influence of atmospheric winds. The only published study of the influence of atmospheric winds on meteoric dust that we have been able to find is that of Fiocco and Grams (1971). However, the meridional transport model used in that study is vastly out of date with current observations and models of the dynamical structure of the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, Fiocco and Grams (1971) ignored coagulation as a loss process for small dust particles, which as can be seen from Figure 5 has a characteristic time scale comparable to those for vertical and horizontal advection in the region where the mesospheric water layer is most apparent. …comparison with zonal averaged HALOE water vapor data. Importance for understanding the state and variability of the mesosphere: The photochemical breakup of water vapor is the source of odd-hydrogen species (HOx = H + OH + HO2) in the middle atmosphere (Brasseur and Solomon, 1986). This photochemical breakup is a direct consequence of the absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation, and thus the magnitude of the odd-hydrogen source follows closely the abundance of water vapor and the variation in solar activity. Odd hydrogen controls both the catalytic loss of ozone in the mesosphere and the recombination of atomic oxygen to form molecular oxygen. The condensation of mesospheric water vapor in the summer polar mesosphere is the source of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (Garcia, 1989), which may be harbingers of climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 and humidity (Thomas et al., 1989; Thomas 1991), and are the focus of the NASA AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) SMEX mission to be launched in September, 2006 (One central goal of AIM is to understand the connection between mesospheric water vapor and the formation of PMCs). If heterogeneous chemistry does indeed occur on meteoric dust particles in the polar mesosphere then this may “precondition” the atmosphere for PMC formation by increasing the relative humidity of the mesosphere. Meteor dust itself may also act as condensation nuclei for PMC particles (Thomas, 1991). Water vapor is also an infrared active gas and plays an important role in determining the thermal state of the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the chemical destruction of middle atmospheric water vapor fuels the production of H which diffuses into the upper atmosphere where it eventually escapes from the Earth (Brassuer and Solomon, 1986). “The loss of hydrogen to space is compensated by the continuous production of H by water vapor photolysis above 60-70 km altitude.” Brasseur & Solomon, Aeronomy of the middle atmosphere, p 129. 8 Thus understanding the sources and sinks of mesospheric water vapor is at the heart of understanding the state, variability, and long term evolution of the middle atmosphere and in particular its response to natural (e.g. solar) and anthropogenic forcing. III. Approach: In the proposed work we will [deleted] … the comparison with zonal averaged HALOE water vapor data. As a by-product we will ascertain the amount of meteoric dust available to act as condensation nuclei for PMCs, and determine the degree to which the mesospheric water vapor layer acts to “pre-condition” the polar mesosphere for the formation of PMCs. Here we describe the two central models that will be used for this study. The HALOE water vapor data and some of the basic characteristics of the mesospheric water vapor layers have been discussed extensively elsewhere (Russell et al., 1993; Summers et al., 1997; Summers et al., 2001; Hervig et al., 2001; Hervig et al., 2003). 9 Figure 7. Results from the CARMA model of PMC formation. Note the evolution of water vapor and water ice as a function of time and altitude. Contours of ice are in equivalent water vapor (in ppmv). IV. Research plan: Year 1: During the first year the focus will be on characterizing the zonal average and seasonal behavior of the mesospheric water vapor layer as seen in the HALOE V.19 H2O data base. 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