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POVERTY GOOD DISADS
Poverty Good Disads ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1
Notes on the File ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
1NC Military Recruitment Shell ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
1NC Growth Module ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Link – Poverty  Growth ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
2NC – Terrorist Module ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
2NC – Environment Module ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
1NC Pork Shell 1/2 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
1NC Pork Shell 2/2 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Uniqueness Ext ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Uniqueness – AT: Alt Cause To Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Link Ext .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
I/L – Domestic Demand Key .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
I/L – Key to Economy .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
2NC CCP Stabiliy Impact ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
2NC North Korea Impact 1/2 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
2NC North Korea Impact 2/2 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
1NC Test Subjects Shell 1/2 ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
1NC Test Subjects Shell 2/2 ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Uniqueness – Pharma Up ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Link – Poor People = Test Subjects ................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Impacts – Bioterror ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
2NC Economy Module ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
2NC – Heg Module ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
2NC – Infectious Diseases Module ................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
2NC – AIDS Module ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
1NC Population Shell ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
2NC Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Turns Case – Racism ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Turns Case – Democracy ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
2NC – Resource Wars Module ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
2NC – Peal Oil Module .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
2NC Moral Ob. ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Uniqueness – AT: Population Increasing ....................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Uniqueness – AT: No Crunch......................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Uniqueness – Species Extinction .................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Uniqueness – AT: Illegal Immigration ........................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Uniqueness – AT: Agriculture Solves ............................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Uniqueness – AT: Aquaculture Solves ........................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Uniqueness – AT: Demographic Transitions Solve ........................................................................................................................................................ 40
Uniqueness – AT: Fertilizers Solve ................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Uniqueness – AT: Free Market Solves ........................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Uniqueness – AT: Space Solves ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Uniqueness – AT: Emperically Denied .......................................................................................................................................................................... 44
2NC Link Wall 1/2 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
2NC Link Wall 2/2 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
AT: No Threshold........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
U.S. Key – Population .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
U.S. Key – AT: Other Countries..................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
U.S. Key – Environment................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
AT: Democracies Solve the Environment ...................................................................................................................................................................... 51
AT: Tech Solves 1/2 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
AT: Tech Solves 2/2 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
AT: Efficiency Solves .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
AT: Population Grows Logistically ................................................................................................................................................................................ 55
AT: Ehrlich Indict........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
AT: Opop Good .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
2/57
NOTES ON THE FILE
So this is just a slew of the best poverty good scenarios. The applications are pretty obvious, specifically for advantage counterplans, if
you link the aff to poverty (better if they read it), and then you read an advantage CP. So I’ll just write out a short explanation of each
DA.
Military Recruitment DA: so basically, when people are wealthier, they don’t have to join the military. This shell is here as a
courtesy, and the rest of the file is in its own separate file.
Growth DA: Basically, wealth inequality is good for economic growth, because the rich that run the economy can exploit the poor for
material gain… morally repugnant, but most of these are.
Pork DA: Now this one is legit. The argument is that poor people eat more pork, because it’s the cheapest meat, and when they get
wealthier, they eat more of richer meats, like chicken and beef. That kills the pork industries which are key to the economy, and then
there are some other impacts too, but the economy one is the main one.
Test Subjects DA: Back to the moral repugnance. So this argument is that poor people are the only people willing to be medical test
subjects, because it’s a last resort sort of job. Those are key to the pharmaceutical industry, because they have to have people to test
their new meds on, and then there are several pharma good impacts.
Malthus DA: So I give you four other options, but this is the bulk of the file, and so here it is: Malthus. The argument is
overpopulation. And increasing affluence causes environmental degredation leading to extinction. Not only that, but the linear impact
of, for every one person we save now, ten die later (amazing if they read Gilligan). Basically, this is just one of those really bad
arguments that you should never win on, but if you do, then okay.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
3/57
1NC MILITARY RECRUITMENT SHELL
A. Poverty key to troop levels
Cebula, economics professor and the Shirley & Philip Solomons Eminent Scholar at Armstrong Atlantic State University, 7-2-2K9
(Richard, “The Economy & You: Health care and military enlistment”, http://new.savannahnow.com/node/746951, REQ)
There are economic considerations in the enlistment decision as well. For example, the higher the net financial benefits from enlisting, the greater
the incentive to do so. Some people, especially those with a background of poverty, have found the armed forces as a vehicle for escaping that poverty.
However, the more prosperous the civilian sector, the less appealing military enlistment becomes. For example, if the civilian
unemployment rate is low, it is more difficult to attract recruits. When private sector businesses are booming and salaries are rising rapidly,
enlistment becomes a less viable option. Naturally, enlistment is more appealing when the economy weakens and job opportunities dry up.
Interestingly, one of the most appealing aspects of enlistment in the U.S. armed forces is the free health care for one's family (the enlistee, spouse,
and children). Yet major public policy changes are being seriously considered in Washington that could adversely affect America's
military. Namely, should some form of universal health care be enacted - my previous column cautions against such a policy without great care and
due consideration - one side effect would undoubtedly be a decline in military enlistment. This prospect does not appear to have caught the
attention of Washington lawmakers and the president. In the short run, universal health care would at some point reduce enlistment. This could adversely affect
not only the Savannah economy, but also local economies across the nation.
B. Troop levels are key to hegemony
Kagan, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, specializing in defense transformation, the defense budget, and defense strategy and warfare, former professor of military
history at the United States Military Academy, and O’Hanlon, senior fellow and Sydney Stein Jr. Chair in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in
U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and homeland security, former analyst with the Congressional Budget Office, 2K7 (Frederick, Michael, “The Case for Larger Ground
Forces”, http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/ohanlon/2007april_kagan.pdf, REQ)
We live at a time when wars not only rage in nearly every region but threaten to erupt in many places where the current relative calm is tenuous. To view
this as a strategic military challenge for the United States is not to espouse a specific theory of America’s role in the world or a certain political philosophy. Such an assessment flows
overseas threats must be countered before they can directly
of the international system is essential to American peace and prosperity, and that no
country besides the United States is in a position to lead the way in countering major challenges to the global order. Let us highlight the threats and
their consequences with a few concrete examples, emphasizing those that involve key strategic regions of the world such as the Persian Gulf and East
Asia, or key potential threats to American security, such as the spread of nuclear weapons and the strengthening of the global Al
Qaeda/jihadist movement. The Iranian government has rejected a series of international demands to halt its efforts at enriching uranium and submit to
international inspections. What will happen if the US—or Israeli—government becomes convinced that Tehran is on the verge of fielding a nuclear
weapon? North Korea, of course, has already done so, and the ripple effects are beginning to spread. Japan’s recent election to supreme
power of a leader who has promised to rewrite that country’s constitution to support increased armed forces—and, possibly, even nuclear weapons— may
well alter the delicate balance of fear in Northeast Asia fundamentally and rapidly. Also, in the background, at least for now, Sino- Taiwanese tensions
continue to flare, as do tensions between India and Pakistan , Pakistan and Afghanistan, Venezuela and the United States, and so on. Meanwhile, the world’s
directly from the basic bipartisan view of American foreign policy makers since World War II that
threaten this country’s shores, that the basic stability
nonintervention in Darfur troubles consciences from Europe to America’s Bible Belt to its bastions of liberalism, yet with no serious international forces on offer, the bloodletting will
probably, tragically, continue unabated. And as bad as things are in Iraq today, they could get worse. What would happen if the key Shiite figure, Ali al Sistani, were to die? If another
major attack on the scale of the Golden Mosque bombing hit either side (or, perhaps, both sides at the same time)? Such deterioration might convince many Americans that the war
Afghanistan is somewhat more stable for the moment, although a
major Taliban offensive appears to be in the offing. Sound US grand strategy must proceed from the recognition that, over the next few years and decades, the
world is going to be a very unsettled and quite dangerous place, with Al Qaeda and its associated groups as a subset of a much larger set of worries. The only serious
response to this international environment is to develop armed forces capable of protecting America’s vital interests throughout this dangerous time. Doing so
requires a military capable of a wide range of missions —including not only deterrence of great power conflict in dealing with potential hotspots in Korea,
the Taiwan Strait, and the Persian Gulf but also associated with a variety of Special Forces activities and stabilization operations. For today’s US military, which already excels
at high technology and is increasingly focused on re-learning the lost art of counterinsurgency, this is first and foremost a question of finding the resources to
field a large-enough standing Army and Marine Corps to handle personnel intensive missions such as the ones now under way in Iraq and Afghanistan.
there truly was lost—but the costs of reaching such a conclusion would be enormous.
C. Nuclear war
Gray, Professor and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2K5 (Colin S., March 22nd, “How has war
changed since the end of the cold war?”, Parameters, Pg. 14(13) Vol. 35 No. 1)
Logically, the reverse side of the coin which proclaims a trend favoring political violence internal to states is the claim that interstate warfare is becoming, or has become, a historical
curiosity. Steven Metz and Raymond Millen assure us that "most armed conflicts in coming decades are likely to be internal ones." (21) That is probably a safe prediction, though one
might choose to be troubled by their prudent hedging with the qualifier "most." Their plausible claim would look a little different in hindsight were it to prove true except for a mere one
or two interstate nuclear conflicts, say between India and Pakistan, or North Korea and the United States and its allies. The same authors also offer the comforting judgment
that "decisive war between major states is rapidly moving toward history's dustbin." (22) It is an attractive claim; it is a shame that it is wrong. War, let alone "decisive war," between
is enjoying an off-season for one main reason: So extreme is the imbalance of military power in favor of the
United States that potential rivals rule out policies that might lead to hostilities with the superpower. It is fashionable to argue that major interstate war is
major states currently
yesterday's problem--recall that the yesterday in question is barely 15 years in the past--because now there is nothing to fight about and nothing to be gained by armed conflict. Would
interstate war will return to frighten us when great-power
rivals feel able to challenge American hegemony. If you read Thucydides, or Donald Kagan, you will be reminded of the deadly and eternal influence of the triad of
that those points were true; unfortunately they are not. The menace of major, if not necessarily decisive,
motives for war: "fear, honor, and interest." (23)
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
4/57
1NC GROWTH MODULE
A. Wealth inequality increases growth
Rodríguez, 2k (Francisco, Professor of Economics @ University of Maryland, A Background Note for the World Development
Report 2000, Inequality, Economic Growth and Economic Performance http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVERTY/Resou
rces/WDR/ Background/rodriguez.pdf)
Partridge (1997) has used a panel of U.S. states to test whether inequality is associated with growth. His findings are that equality
as measured by the share of median income in GDP is positively related with growth (confirming the AR/PT findings) but that
the Gini coefficient is also positively related with growth. As the Gini is an index of inequality, this latter finding contradicts the
PT/AR findings. Partridge’s findings imply that, if the ratio of median income to GDP is held constant, greater inequality is
associated with greater growth. Several observations must be made with respect to Partridge’s findings. First, Partridge uses
tenyear averages but does not present pure cross-sectional regressions. The observations made above with respect to longrun/short-run effects apply here. Second, Partridge is not open to the charge of data quality problems that the panel studies are
because he uses high quality comparable data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Third, more unequal societies generally have
both a higher Gini index and a lower share of median income in GNP. For example, if the distribution of income is a lognormal
distribution with density ln(y,σ) an increase in σ will lead to an increase in both the Gini and the share of the median. As the
lognormal density generally gives a good fit of income distributions6, the relevant empirical question would be whether societies
with higher σs will grow less or more. A possible reinterpretation of the evidence would take Barro’s and Partridge’s findings to
jointly imply that inequality can be good for growth in rich countries, but not in poor countries. Another possible intrepretation
of the literature is that the panel data studies (including Partridge) are mostly picking up short or medium-run effects. A short or
medium run effect of inequality on growth may still be very relevant for issues of policy design, but the long run effect is more
important from the point of view of well-being.
B. Growth is critical to preventing ineffective forms of intervention that risk nuclear holocaust and wars.
Foster, Ph.D professor @ University of Oregon, 09
(John Bellamy Foster, Ph.D professor @ University of Oregon, March 2009, “A Failed System: The World Crisis of Capitalist
Globalization and its Impact,” Monthly Review; 60.10; Wilson Social Sciences Abstracts)
As the foregoing indicates, the world is currently facing the threat of a new world deflation-depression, worse than anything seen since
the 1930s. The ecological problem has reached a level that the entire planet as we know it is now threatened. Neoliberal capitalism
appears to be at an end, along with what some have called "neoliberalism 'with Chinese characteristics.'''54 Declining U.S. hegemony,
coupled with current U.S. attempts militarily to restore its global hegemony through the so called War on Terror, threaten wider wars
and nuclear holocausts. The one common denominator accounting for all of these crises is the current phase of global
monopoly~financed capital. The fault lines are most obvious in terms of the peril to the planet. As Evo Morales, president of Bolivia,
has recently stated: "Under capitalism we are not human beings but consumers. Under capitalism mother earth does not exist, instead
there are raw materials." In reality, "the earth is much more important than [the] stock exchanges of Wall Street and the world. [yet,]
while the United States and the European Union allocate 4,100 billion dollars to save the bankers from a financial crisis that they
themselves have caused, programs on climate change get 313 times less, that is to say, only 13 billion dollars.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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LINK – POVERTY  GROWTH
Wealth inequality helps the economy- status seeking
Pham, 5 (Thi Kim, Professor @ University of Strasbourg, European Journal of Political economy, “Economic growth and statusseeking through personal wealth” June 2005, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V97-4DXJYN71&_user=4257664&_coverDate=06%2F30%2F2005&_rdoc=1&_fmt=full&_orig=search&_cdi=5891&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view
=c&_acct=C000022698&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=4257664&md5=efbb08858f9ec49caf30f5dd9aadd6b1#SECX4)Standa
rd economic growth models generally predict a negative relation between inequality and growth. For instance, Murphy et al. (1989)
found a negative relation in considering the effects of wealth distribution on the composition of demand and the techniques of
production. The introduction of status-seeking into growth model provides a relation between wealth distribution and growth that
differs from the usual link found in the growth literature. In my model, since income divergence is due to difference in individual
incentive to accumulate wealth, higher inequality is associated with a higher growth if it is due to a greater incentive of one group of
agents to accumulate wealth. Otherwise, a higher growth rate may reduce welfare of one group of agents and increase that of other
one. Finally, when the fiscal policy is endogenously determined through a voting mechanism, an increase in the strength of status
motive of the majoritarian class may lead to reduced political-equilibrium growth.
Welfare disincentives activities that help economic growth
Finis Welch, 99 – Professor of Economics @ Texas A&M (The American Economic Review, “In Defense of Inequality”, May 1999,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/117073?seq=1)
This is all good, but it is not all there is. During this period of increasing wage inequality, we have implemented a web of subsidy
and assistance programs designed to buffer poverty that appear to have drawn many into simply not working. I do not argue that
the growth in the proportions of prime-aged men who do not work is the exclusive fault of such programs. Falling real wages
have created incentives to search for alternatives to work; among others, the anti-poverty programs have provided such
alternatives. 1 hope I have made the following points: (i) In the abstract, inequality is good, and increasing inequality is not
necessarily bad. (ii) Regarding the past three decades, when wage inequality increased, first, the opportunities created through
expanded education wage premiums have been and continue to be exploited; and second, increasing inequality within groups
distinguished by race and gender coincided with reduced inequality between the same groups. Attempts to ameliorate effects of
declining wages at the bottom of the distribution have created problems of their own, as employment among those with low
wage potential has dropped. These are the behavioral responses that economists are presumably trained to anticipate; they are
what others refer to as “unintended consequences.”
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
6/57
2NC – TERRORIST MODULE
A. Economic growth is critical to preventing WMD terrorism.
Burrows, Director of the Analysis and Production Staff in the National Intelligence Council, 09
(Mathew J. Burrows, Director of the Analysis and Production Staff in the National Intelligence Council, 2009, “Revisiting the Future:
Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” The Washington Quarterly)
In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource
issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and
youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and
scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will
likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups—Inheriting organizational structures, command and control
processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks—and newly emergent collections of the angry and
disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an
economic downturn.
B. Extinction.
Speice, J.D., associate in Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher's Washington, D.C. office, 06
(Patrick Speice, J.D., associate in Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher's Washington, D.C. office, February 2006, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev.
1427, Lexis)
The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of nuclear knowledge and material to terrorist groups that seek to cause mass
destruction in the United States are truly horrifying. A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon would be devastating in terms of
immediate human and economic losses. 49 Moreover, there would be immense political pressure in the United States to discover the
perpetrators and retaliate with nuclear weapons, massively increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale
nuclear conflict. 50 In addition to the threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce
the barriers that states with nuclear ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. 51 This proliferation
will increase the risk of nuclear attacks against the United States [*1440] or its allies by hostile states, 52 as well as increase the
likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
7/57
2NC – ENVIRONMENT MODULE
Economic growth is key to a stable environment – collapse ensures destruction
Theodore Panayotou 2K. Lecturer in Environmental Policy, is a Faculty Associate at the Center for International Development, a
member of Core Faculty of Sustainable Development, and a Faculty Fellow of the Environmental Economics Program at Harvard
University. [“ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT”] http://www.unece.org/ead/pub/032/032_c2.pdf
At the other extreme, are those who argue that the fastest road to environmental improvement is along the path of economic growth:
with higher incomes comes increased demand for goods and services that are less material intensive, as well as demand for improved
environmental quality that leads to the adoption of environmental protection measures. As Beckerman puts it, “The strong correlation
between incomes, and the extent to which environmental protection measures are adopted, demonstrates that in the longer run, the
surest way toimprove your environment is to become rich”.58 Some went as far as claiming that environmental regulation, by
reducing economic growth, may actually reduce environmental quality.59
Each new species extinction risks planetary extinction-evidence is gender-modified
MAJOR DAVID N. DINER, Judge Advocate General's Corps, United States Army, Military Law Review Winter 1994 143 Mil. L.
Rev. 161
Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These
ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist
a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a
simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." n79 By causing widespread extinctions,
humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The
spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what
might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and
intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster.
Like a mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, [hu]mankind may be edging closer to the abyss. ([ ] =
correction
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
8/57
1NC PORK SHELL 1/2
Pork producers are on the brink of collapse
Krohn, 7/12/09 (Tim, Free Press Staff Writer, Pork prices described as crisis: Many producers 'at the absolute edge', Mankato Free
Press, http://www.mankatofreepress.com/local/local_story_193231913.html)
Mitch Truebenbach, like other hog producers, was losing as much as $25 on each pig he sold for more than two years. Early this spring, things started looking a bit brighter.
“Guys
were just starting to break even when the ‘swine’ flu came. Then it just plummeted. The problem is CNN and the national media are all still calling it swine flu. The
exports just dropped. It’s been brutal.” David Preisler, executive director of the Mankato-based Minnesota Pork Producers, said that between one-quarter and one-third of the state’s pork producers
“are on the absolute edge.” On Tuesday, Truebenbach and other producers from across the Midwest are hosting a free pork feed in Mankato for the public and a meeting for producers to discuss the latest
developments in the industry. Lynch Livestock will provide the lunch from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m., serving pork loin, pork sausage and pulled pork outside the Mankato Harley Davidson store off Highway 169 in North Mankato. A
Crisis in the Swine Industry meeting will follow at 1 p.m. at the Best Western. Truebenbach, of Aberdeen, S.D., grew up near Nicollet and operates hog operations in this area and South Dakota. He decided to help organize
the Tuesday event to counter the negative publicity the industry has had because of the so-called swine flu. Many consumers in the United States and other countries have mistakenly assumed pork is unsafe or can transmit the
Government and health agencies have
taken pains to stop referring to the HINI virus as “swine” flu, but the label has stuck with much of the public and news outlets. Preisler
said the flu publicity dried up exports to Mexico, the second largest importer of American pork. While producers expected to be near the breakeven point this year, Preisler
said hog producers in Minnesota alone are now expected to lose some $500 million. Minnesota produces 15 million hogs a year, second only to Iowa. Hog
and other livestock prices have been battered in recent years by high grain prices , which increased feed costs. Grain prices reached record
levels because of increased world demand and more use of corn in ethanol plants. Corn and soybean prices have moderated some
recently. Truebenbach said the high production prices, coupled with the flu scare, have brought the industry to the brink.
“There have been quite a few (producers) going out of business. There’s a lot of them right on the edge and I think the lenders are really going to force
the issue now. A lot of producers are leveraged up,” he said.
virus. But the virus is not a food-borne illness. The virus contains avian and human components and no pig so far has been found ill with the disease.
The poorest consume the most pork ---- the aff causes a decrease in demand
Davis and Lin, 5 (Christopher G. and Biing-Hwan, Economic Research service, USDA, May, Factors Affecting US Pork
Consumption, http://www.thepigsite.com/articles/?Display=1344)
Lower Income Households Report More Pork Consumption In the CSFII survey, households were classified into three income brackets using the Federal poverty guideline. For
reference, the Census Bureau reported that the weighted average poverty income threshold for a fourperson household was $15,961 annually during 1994-96 and 1998, derived from the U.S. Department of Commerce
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2000). The poverty guideline was developed by the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services for the implementation of Federal food programs. Some of these programs, such as the
Food Stamps Program, have used annual household income at 130 percent of the poverty level to determine eligibility. The present study uses 130 percent of the poverty-level threshold to define the low-income category—
About 39 percent of households had income exceeding 350 percent of the poverty level (called highincome), while 42 percent of households had income falling between 130 and 350 percent of the poverty level (middle-income).
The CSFII results indicate that consumers in high-income households consumed less pork per capita, both fresh and processed,
than did those in low- and middle-income households (table 3 and fig. 3). Per capita consumption of fresh pork was highest among low-income consumers, and of processed pork it was
about 19 percent of U.S. households.
highest among middle-income consumers.
Maintaining domestic pork demand is vital to the industry
Jackson, 5/5/09 (Tom is a Senior Economist in IHS Global Insight's Agriculture Group, North American Flu Threatens Pork Demand,
http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspective/PerspectiveDetail16606.htm)
Whether bans on meat trade are legitimate or not, they will likely affect livestock markets, especially hogs. Exports account for an increasing share of annual U.S. pork production, rising from 7% of production in 2000 to 20%
in 2008. Japan has been the leading foreign buyer of U.S. pork for years, and Mexico's purchases have been fairly steady as the second-highest market. Meanwhile, Russia and China have fueled the rise in U.S. pork exports with
their increased purchases. China's increased purchases in 2007 and 2008 were probably based on short-term factors, such as disease in the Chinese hog herd in 2007 and increased pork demand because of the Olympics in
Beijing in 2008; therefore, a decrease in China's pork purchases was already expected for 2009. Reliance on Russia as a meat export market tends to carry an element of risk, especially because it is not yet a World Trade
Organization signatory. Russia maintains quota and tariff systems for meat imports, and the associated rules can be euphemistically described as "variable." Recovering from the loss of Russia as a pork export market for a
the bigger risks to demand for U.S. pork probably lie closer to home
sustained period would be difficult. Beyond the issue of the trade bans,
. Mexican demand for U.S.
pork has been partly fueled by its economic growth, and the potential damage to the Mexican economy from the flu outbreak could reduce its overall food demand. In addition, there is the danger that consumers will stay away
The domestic pork market also may pose a risk if U.S.
consumers shun pork. Although export demand has risen to 20% of total U.S. pork production, domestic demand still accounts for
the remaining 80%. It will take a while to determine whether domestic demand for pork has been significantly damaged. So far, there has been a bit of anecdotal evidence of
consumer wariness of pork in the United States, but experience from other potential meat safety issues, such as mad cow disease and avian influenza,
indicates that on balance, U.S. consumer demand for pork is unlikely to suffer very much because of safety fears over "swine flu."
from pork in droves if they believe that the flu is transmitted by eating pork products, even if their fears are misplaced.
The flu issue is developing quickly, and IHS Global Insight will continue to monitor its effects on the entire economy, including agriculture.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
9/57
1NC PORK SHELL 2/2
The pork industry is key to the economy
PST, 7 (Progressive Swine Technologies, Caring for Our Environment: Economic Impacts of the Pork Industry,
http://www.pstdanbred.com/EconomicImpact.asp)
Pork production is a vital and growing part of the nation's economy and the industry's economic impact on rural America is
especially significant. Annual farm sales usually exceed $11 billion, with the retail value of pork totaling about $30 billion . When
the economic impact of wages and profits spent in other sectors is included, pork producers are responsible for generating more
than $66 billion in total domestic economic activity. Through direct, indirect, and induced effects, the pork industry supports over 600,000 jobs and
adds nearly $27.4 billion of value to production inputs. Efficient production methods keep consumer pork prices in the United States among the lowest in the world. The pork industry
also produces non-food items used in medicines, and cleaning agents. Pharmaceutical by-products include insulin, various hormones, materials used to dress wounds and burns,
and replacement heart valves. Industrial by-products include cleaners, adhesives, proteins, dyes, insulation, crayons, chalk, lubricants, and
leather. The versatility of pork products makes production an appealing and potentially profitable business . The number of hogs produced in the
United States now numbers about 93 million and the number of farms with hogs is more than 157,000 (USDA, December 1996). Pork producers contribute to the economic viability of
rural communities by supporting service and retail businesses from the farm gate to main street. As many small towns experience a
gradual loss in population and tax base, areas that rely on pork production and related businesses often benefit from greater tax revenues,
increased per capita incomes, stronger employment rates, and other factors that build economically stable communities.
Economic decline risks extinction
Kerpen 10/28/08 (Phil, policy director of Americans for Prosperity,
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU=)
It’s important that we avoid all these policy errors — not just for the sake of our prosperity, but for our survival. The Great
Depression, after all, didn’t end until the advent of World War II, the most destructive war in the history of the planet. In a world
of nuclear and biological weapons and non-state terrorist organizations that breed on poverty and despair, another global economic
breakdown of such extended duration would risk armed conflicts on an even greater scale.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
10/57
UNIQUENESS EXT
Pork industry growing now:
Brink --- pork producers are struggling to maintain profits post swine flu scares and high food prices ---they’ll just survive ---- that’s Kohn.
b) Rising pork prices and hog investment
Reuters, 7/16/09 (LIVESTOCK-U.S. hogs up 2 pct to 6-wk high on pork surge,
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSN1629514020090716)
.S. hog futures rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday to a six-week high amid a surge in the wholesale price of pork to the
highest level in eight months. Meat packers reducing the rate of hog slaughter and a pickup in demand have helped to lift the
average pork price by 18.5 percent, or $9.89, since slumping to a six-year low of $53.44 per cwt on June 24. The U.S. Agriculture Department on Wednesday
reported the average pork price rising $3.28 to $63.33 per cwt, its highest since Oct. 28. "Yesterday's pork cash news was bullish
for this market," said James Burns, a hog futures trader. "If they can hold it (cash pork price) over $63, maybe it will give some signs of
recovery. August lean hogs 2LHQ9 closed up 1.200 cents at 65.225 cents and October 2LHV9 was up 1.375 cents at 60.475 cents. August posted a six-week high and October a five-week high. The pork
market had been under a lot of pressure the past couple of months due to the weak economy and H1N1 flu reducing pork exports .
The industry has been paring down the hog herd. Burns noted the advance was limited by the large premium of futures to cash prices and concern there is
still a large amount of meat that has to work through the pipeline while the economy tries to recover from the recession . "We're still a little
apprehensive because we are carrying such a premium to the cash market. "There's still a lot of meat out there," he said. "If this afternoon's product (price) comes out higher again or
steady at worst, I think you could see a little upward continuation here in the August," Burns added.
CHICAGO, July 16 (Reuters) - U
c) Domestic demand and exports
LMDS, 6/26/09 (Le Mars Daily Sentinel, Pork industry fighting back after H1N1 name debacle,
http://www.lemarssentinel.com/story/1550574.html)
The name of the recent H1N1 influenza outbreak seems like a jumble of characters, but it won't send an entire U.S. industry into a
downward spiral. That's what happened to the pork industry when initial press releases about the strain of influenza gave it the name "swine flu," according to Le Mars pork producer Bill Tentinger. Tentinger,
who has been in the industry for 40 years, is also a board member for the Iowa Pork Producers Association. The misnomer came about because the virus is an unique combination of swine and human flu viruses. However,
the virus is not transmitted from pigs to humans, according to the Iowa Department of Public Health. But when the news broke in late April, it was the
shot heard around the world for the U.S. pork industry -- already facing over-supply and a cold shoulder from some foreign markets. John Schneider, who custom feeds hogs in rural Le
Mars, said the poor name choice of the H1N1 flu was "rather devastating" for pork producers. "Pork dropped about $15. That's about $40 per head of hogs," he said. "It hasn't recovered completely
yet." In the United States, pork consumption dropped sharply after the April flu announcement but only stayed down a week and a
half, Tentinger said. The foreign markets, however, have been a different story. China, a top U.S. pork importer, has banned pork products from the U.S. Russia, also in the top 10 for U.S. port imports, banned pork
products from nearly one-third of the states. "We'd really relied heavily on exports. They were tremendous last year. When you start losing that it really hurts," Tentinger said. "This just came out of the dark," he said. "It has
the U.S. market seemed to respond to media reports explaining that H1N1 flu can not be spread through
pork products or from pigs to people, China and Russia reacted the opposite way. "When the CDC's original statement came out misnaming the influenza, countries took advantage of that," Tentinger
really set the pork industry back." While
said. These countries, he said, used the H1N1 flu scare to bolster their own domestic pork products by banning U.S. exports. Dan Casey, of Nor-Am Cold Storage, which ships pork and other meat products abroad and in the
U.S., had a similar view. "It's mostly political," Casey said. "Countries sometimes flex their political muscle and ban imports to hopefully gain some concessions." The U.S., Tentinger said, is viewed as a major competitor to
the industry in these countries. "In China, there's a mindset in the country that they want to be self-sufficient, and part of that is food," Tentinger said. "They won't want to be reliant on another country for their food supply."
According to the Associated Press, the bans in Russia and China cost the U.S. hog industry millions of dollars weekly. Tentinger said he's heard from people who have traveled to Russia to talk about lifting the bans. "They're
There is some good news. While China and Russia are standing their ground, other
nations are not following suit. "Other countries are stepping up their intake of our pork products," Tentinger said. "We've put a
lot of effort in getting the word out, and they're seeing that it's a good time, that pork is a real value right now . They know it's safe."
Japan's import numbers for U.S. pork are up especially, he said. Taiwan is taking in more, too. "Mexico is a strong trade partner, and Mexican exports are
starting to come back," Tentinger said. "They're getting near levels prior to the H1N1 outbreak." Domestically, sales of U.S. pork are also on the rise, especially in the past few weeks, he
said. Casey reported the same increase. His explanation: the sun is out and it's grilling time .
coming back saying the Russians are going to be tough cookies," Tentinger said.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
11/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: ALT CAUSE TO PRICES
Pork exports weren’t too negatively affected by swine flu and the economy
Cattle Network. 7/13/09 (USMEF: Pork, Beef Exports Weathering Influenza, Economic Crises Fairly Well,
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=329774)
While May was expected to be the month in which U.S. pork exports were most affected by A-H1N1 influenza, the impact has
not been as negative as some analysts had predicted, according to an analysis of USDA statistics by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). At the same time, U.S.
beef exports for the first five months of 2009 remain roughly on par with 2008. May pork plus pork variety meat exports totaled 143,682 metric tons (316.8 million pounds) valued at $342.6 million. This is down 9 percent in
spring of 2008 was a historic high point for U.S.
pork exports, and a repeat of those results was not anticipated even before A-H1N1 influenza hampered demand and led to significant market
value and 9.5 percent in volume from April, and down a substantial 24 percent in value and 27 percent in volume compared to May 2008. But
closures for U.S. pork. When compared to May 2007, pork exports in May 2009 actually increased 43 percent in volume and 36 percent in value, and surpassed the volume and value achieved in any single month of that year.
For the first five months of 2009, exports are down 4 percent in volume to 791,745 metric tons (1.7 billion pounds) and 1 percent in value to $1.8 billion from the same period last year. It is also important to note that despite
we don’t like to see a
decline in pork exports for any reason,” said USMEF Chairman Jon Caspers, a pork producer from Swaledale, Iowa. “But considering the blow we were dealt
by A-H1N1 influenza, on top of an already shaky global economy, the May results were not as lackluster as some had feared. But now
speculation about the domestic market absorbing excess pork due to sluggish exports, the percentage of total production exported (23.3 percent) is roughly on pace with 2008. “Certainly
we need to put these trade suspensions and other barriers behind us and work aggressively to ensure that these effects don’t linger.” Some countries either fully or partially closed to U.S. pork during May, and a few markets –
including China – remain closed today. But Caspers was quick to praise the trading partners that lived up to their obligations by remaining open to U.S. pork and worked to dispel misinformation that attempted to connect pork
“USMEF worked very closely with the governments of Mexico, Japan, Korea and many other countries to
keep these markets open and to ensure that their trade policies remained science-based,” he said. “Despite considerable pressure
in some of these countries, most remained fully open. Consumer demand took a hit in the early stages of the outbreak, but seems to
have bounced back fairly quickly as people become better informed about the safety of U.S. pork.” Despite being regarded as the epicenter of the A-H1N1 outbreak and
consumption with A-H1N1 influenza.
enduring a weeklong shutdown of most commercial activity in early May, Mexico performed fairly well for the month. While pork and pork variety meat exports to Mexico declined by about 15 percent from April, volume was
Mexico has increased its imports of U.S. pork by 48
percent in value and nearly 60 percent in volume over the same period last year. It has been the leading volume destination for U.S. pork (211,391 metric tons or 466 million pounds) and trails only Japan in terms of
value ($315 million vs. $695 million to Japan). Japan continues to perform exceptionally well for U.S. pork , with results through the first five months of the year surpassing last year’s
still 18 percent higher than in May 2008, totaling 34,227 metric tons (75.5 million pounds). For the first five months of the year,
record pace by 4 percent in volume (192,050 metric tons or 423.4 million pounds) and 17 percent in value. Japan is still by far the top value destination for U.S. pork, and trails only Mexico this year in terms of volume.
Other bright spots for U.S. pork during the first five months of 2009 include Taiwan ( up 75 percent in volume and 63 percent in value over January-May 2008),
Australia (up 33 percent in volume and 35 percent in value), the Caribbean region (up 56 percent in volume and 53 percent in value), and Central and South America (up 25 percent in
volume and 37 percent in value). Conversely, exports to the Hong Kong/China market have declined by 46 percent in volume and 48 percent in value while Russia has fallen by 34 percent in volume and 35 percent in value.
These results are due in part to the trade suspensions imposed as a result of A-H1N1 influenza, but both countries have also been making concerted efforts to bolster domestic pork production and reduce their reliance on
imports.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
12/57
LINK EXT
Low-income individuals consume pork --- higher income persons consume chicken
Guenther, 5 (Patricia M. PhD, RD, Helen H. Jensen PhD, S. Patricia Batres-Marquez MS and Chun-Fu Chen MS, Journal of the
American Dietetic Association, Sociodemographic, Knowledge, and Attitudinal Factors Related to Meat Consumption in the United
States, Volume 105, Issue 8, August, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B758G-4GRH23B12&_user=1458830&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000052790&_version=1&_urlVersio
n=0&_userid=1458830&md5=83513e3bd943a63c4ccae410d669f2d1)
Individuals in higher income households consumed relatively more chicken; those in low-income households consumed more
processed pork products. Those consuming no beef and smaller amounts of chicken had the lowest discretionary fat intakes. Beef
and pork consumers were more likely to think that their diets were too high in fat, but less likely to believe it is important to eat a
low-fat diet. Region of residence affected the probability of consuming most meats. Having a high level of education was
associated with a lower likelihood of consuming beef and pork. Conclusions Sociodemographic factors are strong predictors of the
probability of choosing particular types of meat and of the amounts eaten. Knowledge and attitudes about diet and meat products
also influence choices.
The poor eat more pork than the wealthy
Davis and Lin, 5 (Christopher G. and Biing-Hwan Lin, Economic Research Service, May, Factors Affecting U.S. Pork Consumption,
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/LDP/may05/ldpm13001/ldpm13001.pdf)
What do consumption patterns tell us about the future of the hog industry? Although eaten less frequently than poultry or beef,
pork is and will continue to be an important source of protein for Americans. Using USDA’s CSFII survey data, we described pork
consumption in terms of who eats pork and pork products, along with where and how much. Such information, while useful to
retailers, processors, hog producers, and others investigating the health and structure of the industry, has not been readily available.
Some important findings of this study include: Most of the pork eaten by consumers was purchased at retail stores and
consumed at home. The South had a higher market share of pork consumption than other regions, thanks to its large population
base and its above-average consumption. However, on a per capita basis, Midwest consumers ate 58 pounds of pork, followed by
52 pounds in the South, 51 pounds in the Northeast, and 42 pounds in the West. Black consumers had the highest per capita
pork consumption overall, but other ethnic groups, especially Asians, consumed more fresh pork than others on a per capita basis.
White consumers ate less fresh pork but more processed pork than Hispanics. Higher income consumers ate less pork than lower
income consumers. As eating out has become more popular, higher income consumers have eaten a larger portion of pork away
from home than lower income consumers.
Poor consume comparatively more pork
Davis et al, 4 (Christopher Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, May, Consumption of Pork Products: Now
and to the Year 2020, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/20168/1/sp04da02.pdf)
In the CSFII survey, households were classified into three income brackets using the Federal poverty guidelines. The poverty
guideline was developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for the implementation of Federal food programs.
Some Federal food programs, such as the Food Stamp Program, have used 130 percent of the poverty level as the eligibility
criterion for participation. CSFII data indicate that lower-income consumers ate more pork than their higher-income counterparts.
Individuals in households with income eligible for the Food stamp program consumed about 70 pounds of pork per year, compared
to 68 and 62 pounds consumed in higher income households.
The poor would adopt the same pork consumption patterns of the wealthy
Davis et al, 4 (Christopher Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, May, Consumption of Pork Products: Now
and to the Year 2020, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/20168/1/sp04da02.pdf)
The estimated demand system for pork cuts and the predicted social, economic, and demographic conditions were used to predict
the per capita consumption of the pork cuts. It should be noted that there are key assumptions underlying the predictions. We
assumed that consumers’ preferences for pork and relative pork prices would stay the same throughout year 2020. Over time, as
consumers move from one demographic group to another (such as aging), they would take on the new group’s consumption
patterns. The results indicated that per capita consumption of fresh pork would rise but the consumption of processed pork would
decline over the next two decades. However, the U.S. population is predicted to grow by an estimated 50 million people. As a
result, between 2000 and 2020, the consumption of fresh pork was predicted to grow by 22 percent, followed by a 15 percent
growth in other pork, 12 percent for smoked ham, and 9 percent for lunchmeats, hot dogs, bacon, and sausage.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
13/57
I/L – DOMESTIC DEMAND KEY
Demand drop exacerbates industry’s financial difficulties
Fannin, 9 (Blair, Texas A&M University, “U.S. pork industry important economic driver,” May 1, Southwest Farm Press,
http://southwestfarmpress.com/news/pork-industry-0501/)
Consumers hold the key to how quickly pork prices rebound from the dip they experienced following the current influenza
outbreak, according to a Texas AgriLife Extension Service economist.
Hog prices nationwide had dropped to an average of about $59 per 100 pounds of carcass weight Tuesday morning, down from
about $62 last Thursday, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Seasonal prices for this time of year typically climb past
$70 in late April and May.
"(A lot of this) depends on how consumers react," Anderson said. "If demand for pork declines, they've got to cut production
and it means some hog farmers will go out of business. It all depends on how consumers react and how long the trade bans go on
and how widespread they are in determining if this will contribute to lower prices and how long lower prices last."
Domestic demand key to industry growth
Informa Economics, 5 (The Changing US Pork Industry and Implications for Future Growth, October,
http://www.thepigsite.com/articles/?Display=1571)
US domestic pork disappearance (i.e. total consumption) hit an historic low in 1982 but has since trended higher (Figure 1),
reflecting fairly stable per capita consumption coupled with US population growth. Over the same period, domestic pork
production has increased at an even faster rate, (interrupted only by the normal fluctuations of the US hog cycle) allowing the
United States to become a net exporter of pork products and one of the preeminent suppliers on world markets.
Over the past several decades, US meat consumption (beef, pork and poultry combined) has shown steady growth, from about 150
lbs per capita in 1960 to nearly 225 lbs per capita in 2004 (Figure 2). This reflects both US income growth and improved
production techniques that have generally resulted in lower unit prices and improved quality characteristics. But domestic
consumption of pork has been remarkably stable over the same period, mostly remaining between 50 lbs and 60 lbs per capita, but
closer to 50 lbs per capita since about 1982. On the other hand, per capita beef and chicken consumption have trended in opposite
directions, with strong growth in poultry offsetting steady, slow erosion in beef consumption over most of the same period.
And, price changes alone cannot explain most of these consumption trends, as beef consumption has trended lower despite steady
or modestly declining real prices of beef over much of this period, while consumption of chicken has shown almost consistent
year-over-year increases regardless of price fluctuations. Hence, other factors such as health perceptions, quality and consistency,
convenience of preparation, and marketing/branding strategies have contributed to changing consumption patterns among major
meat groups. Pork demand has shown remarkable stability against these market dynamics.
Historic consumption patterns indicate that the US consumer is willing to consume up to about 53 lbs of pork per capita within the
current price range, so expanding demand beyond that level is mostly uncharted territory. This suggests that continued industry
growth is likely to come mostly through domestic population growth and exports, along with some “targeted” growth in niche
markets that appeal to particular consumer interests, such as perhaps, organic production, heirloom genetics, or production systems
that emphasize specific traits such as antibiotic free, animal welfare concerns, or others.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
14/57
I/L – KEY TO ECONOMY
Pork is critical to the economy
Levy, 8 (Janet is the founder of ESG Consulting, an organization that offers project management, fundraising, promotion, event
organizing and planning services for conservative political causes and issues related to terrorism and national security, Outlawing the
Pig, may 2, http://www.frontpagemag.com/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=30815)
Pork production is a vital part of the U.S. economy, producing more than 22 billion pounds of meat annually, contributing
almost $40 billion to the GNP and employing more than 500,000 workers in pork-industry related jobs. In addition, important pork
co-products include heart valves, skin grafts for burn victims, gelatin, plywood, glue, cosmetics and plastics. At 28% of total world
production, the U.S. is the second largest pork producer after China, which produces close to 50% of the world total. Pork ranks
third in U.S. meat production behind beef and chicken and average yearly per capita consumption is about 50 pounds.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
15/57
2NC CCP STABILIY IMPACT
A strong US industry is critical to Chinese pork exports ---- enables Chinese agricultural investment
Hayes and Clemens, 7 (Dermot J., professor of economics and chair of agribusiness at Iowa State, Roxanne, ISU Meat Export Research Center, March, The Chinese Market for U.S. Pork Exports, Center
for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/97bp14.pdf)
As China’s production costs grow within a protected environment, the U.S. advantage will increase. Although a more formal analysis of these subsidies
would be required to prove a World Trade Organization (WTO) case, U.S. pork producers would benefit from a WTO entry agreement for China prohibiting direct and indirect use of export subsidies. Projections As
mentioned, the Chinese government places a strong emphasis on selfsufficiency in pork. This stance means that China's negotiators at the WTO accession meetings will request permission to maintain the current de facto ban
the U nited S tates is in a position to obtain some concessions from China, and one of these concessions might be to
open China’s pork market. Therefore, two sets of projections—each representing one of the above outcomes—are presented. Both scenarios assume that Chinese pork exports will decrease. In the
on pork imports. However,
selfsufficiency (baseline) scenario, the decrease occurs because internal prices increase. In the WTO concession scenario, the decrease occurs because free trade in pork products precludes subsidized exports. Both scenarios
assume that consumption and production level off for the next two years as the market responds to the current surplus of frozen pork and relatively high production costs (see Figures 1 through 4). After 1998, the WTO
concession scenario shows 4 percent growth in per capita consumption and zero growth in production. (Note that the 4 percent growth figure is lower than the 6 percent figure mentioned earlier to account for the overestimate
of consumption levels inherent in the USDA data.) The selfsufficiency scenario shows 2 percent annual growth in both production and consumption. By construction, the self-sufficiency scenario shows a no-trade situation
The WTO scenario shows a very large import level (exceeding U.S. production). These figures make a simple
point. China is in the process of building a pork industry in the wrong place. Pork that should be produced in grain-surplus
countries will be produced at great expense in a graindeficit country. This misallocation of resources will cause Chinese pork
prices to be much higher than would otherwise be the case and will divert Chinese investment in agriculture away from other,
more lucrative, opportunities.
throughout the projection period.
Investment key to stability
Gilmore, 9 (Yongye Biotechnology International's Larry, VP of Corporate Strategy, April 16, An Interview With Yongye: China's Agricultural Revolution,
http://www.thechinaperspective.com/articles/aninterviewwithyongyechina039sagriculturalrevolution5717/index.html)
Agriculture continues to be a heavily invested sector in China. The news is chalked full stories following big name investors who have confidence in China’s Agricultural strength.
The market volume for agriculture products is huge, both for domestic sales and export and there is no set threshold for foreign investment into the sector as opposed to other industries, such as energy, finance, mining, and
China is the world’s biggest
grower and consumer of grains and yet must boost crop yields by at least 1 percent a year to ensure the country has enough food to
feed its 1.3 billion people according to the Minister of Agriculture, Sun Zhengcai. Additional policy changes will include protecting farmland working to increase rural incomes to retain farming interest. The
goal is to maintain self-sufficiency in food production because no other country can feed the world’s biggest population, Sun said. “Our
telecommunications. This is driven by the growing demand for higher quality food products domestically and international reliance on food products from China. Currently,
strategy must be based on stable farmland, and seeking ways to improve yields,” Sun said in a speech to local officials, outlining the government’s near- and long-term agriculture policy and objectives. China, which harvested
more summer crops, aims also to boost grain and oilseed output this year, Sun said. To ensure next year’s crops, officials must “stabilize” area planted in winter wheat and use idle land in the off season to grow rapeseed, Sun
said. armland in China is owned by the local government, but given to local farmers under 30 year use contracts. With the allure of higher incomes and better living conditions in the city, farmers have abandoned the land and
no others farmers have stepped in to bring it back into production. This has created a shortage of a key raw material in the agricultural supply chain- productive land. The government has acknowledged this issue and recently
enacted a new land use reform policy which liberalizes the exchange of land among the nation’s farmers. This creates a new model for China’s 730 million farmers with the idea being to create more stable farmlands by shifting
the country away from the single household farm plot model to the amalgamation of larger-scale operations which should be more productive due to technology and economies of scale. Farmers will be able to transfer their
Chinese authorities commented that, "Without modernizing agriculture, China
cannot modernize; without stability and prosperity in rural areas, China cannot have stability and prosperity." The changes
are enacted to "ensure national food security and the supply of major agricultural products, and promote increases in agricultural
production, farm incomes and rural prosperity."
land-use rights to others through a new market system for rural land-use rights.
CCP instability causes WMD lashout and extinction
Renxing, 5 (San, The Epoch Times "The CCP's Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War. Hundreds of millions of deaths proposed", 8/5, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html)
A cornered beast is fighting desperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you don’t
passages directly from the speeches
What, then, is the gist of this wild, last-ditch gamble? To put it in a few words:
read
believe me,
some
. We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people
will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its
Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward
fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices
we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and
forever gone! In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the entire
globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a nuclear bondage theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the
security of the entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are
finished, China will be finished, and the world will be finished. It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans.
But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world . We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not
population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities.
want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of
Since the Party’s life is above all else, it
would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life.
The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These
speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate
attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches.
our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Partys life has always been above all else!
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
16/57
2NC NORTH KOREA IMPACT 1/2
The US pork industry is the key exporter to South Korea
Southern Farmer, 6 (Imports of U.S. Chilled Pork a Rising Trend, Jan 11, http://southernfarmer.com/story.aspx?s=8192&c=12)
South Koreans are developing an appetite for U.S. pork. South Korea imported 236,874 metric tons (mt) of pork in the first 11
months of 2005, a 49% increase compared to the same 11 months of 2004. The U.S. pork industry had the largest share (22.5%) of the import
market. The United States also provided a record quantity of U.S. chilled pork (4,131 mt), according to Korean statistics. The
increase in imports of U.S. chilled pork was behind Korea’s percentage of chilled pork imports rising from 1.35% (Jan.-Nov. 2004) to 2.5%. The United
States Meat Export Federation sees an expanding future for chilled pork exports to Korea and is promoting it extensively in
restaurants and supermarkets. Improved packaging technology, longer shelf life and enhanced transportation methods have dramatically increased the
demand for chilled U.S. pork from 2003, when negligible quantities of chilled U.S. pork were exported to Korea. Targeted marketing by USMEF to restaurants and
retail stores has stimulated the rapidly increasing consumption of chilled U.S. pork.
These pork exports are critical to keeping inflation low
Brooks, 7 (Eric J., FEED Business Asia, Inflation, imports or adaptation: Asian hog farmers examine their options, Oct, http://www.efeedlink.com/ShowDetail/e9904c30-d349-4b1d-b109-6b28e23edce0.html )
ASIA's rising demand for animal protein is outstripping its capacity to convert feed grains into livestock. With pork rising from
30.3 percent of Asia's meat output (by quantity) in 1961 to approximately 55 percent today, this widening gap between supply and demand
is felt most acutely in Asia's hog rearing industry. Even as large Asian populations and rising incomes collide with global feed grain shortages, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation
(FAO) states that Asia will account for two-thirds or 2 percent of this year's 3 percent rise in pork production. However, the FAO also expects that resource constraints and higher feed grain prices will soon flatten out Asia's
rising hog production. This last point is particularly important because behind critical hog sector issues such as imports, feed grains or prices, supply chain problems silently lurk in the background. Consequently, Asia's rising
living standards and growing populations are outracing regional swine inventories. This trend is evident in national pork import volumes. In 1980, Asia's hog trade was balanced as it accounted for 24 percent of both pork
. Japan's traditionally voluminous pork imports have
been joined by those of South Korea and China. According to Thomas Lee Bauer, Head, Strategic Advisory & Research at Rabobank International, "US Pork exports to Asia are increasing with
Japan up 8.1 percent and China 51 percent over last year." Similarly, the South Korean government expects pork imports to rise by 50 percent over 2006's
level. On the menu: Inflation or imports? These figures, however, understate the gravity of the situation. Countries with hog inventory
deficits have to choose between demand-pull inflation or the problematic avenue of importing pork. For example, by refusing to cover domestic hog
imports and exports. By 2007, Asia generated only 12 percent of pork exports but consumed 44 percent of global pork imports
supply shortages with a sufficient quantity of imports, China is on route to pork price inflation in excess of 100 percent for this year. Furthermore, despite the strong signals higher prices usually send to hog producers, China's
relatively low hog inventories are responding slowly and weakly. China remains restrictive in its meat importing policies but in an effort to stop a pork price spiral, it opted to import 70,000 tonnes of US pork shortly before
, by liberalising pork imports, South Korea has achieved price stability
this article's publication. On the other hand
but at the cost of imperiling its domestic swine
production. Indeed, China's fear that liberalising pork imports threatens domestic hog production is widely shared throughout Asia. In a public announcement made shortly after banning imports of hogs and pork, Cambodian
prime minister Hun Sen cited disease concerns. However, he also stated that imported hogs and pork, "act as a barrier slowing down the development of pig farming, which plays an important role in poverty reduction."
Even South Korea only liberalised pork imports after overcoming considerable political opposition and formulating a survival
strategy for its hog farmers. Consequently, while Asia's swine sectors vary greatly in income, climate, land or population size, they all
face key issues of unfettered demand, supply chain constraints and the specter of imports. Below, we examine how three Asian
countries managed this complex set of challenges.
Inflation collapses Korea’s economy
Chan, 8 (John, World Socialist Website, South Korean economy faces mounting problems, july 24, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jul2008/kore-j24.shtml)
Andy Xie, former chief Asia economist with Morgan Stanley, pointed out that South Korea is vulnerable to stagflation—economic slowdown combined
with rising prices. “Korea may be experiencing a massive property bubble funded by debt. A decline of asset values and a rise of the
consumer price index (CPI) are a deadly combination.” The country’s top business lobby, the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI), which is composed of major conglomerates such as
Samsung and Hyundai, issued a statement on July 16 declaring that the South Korean economy “has already entered a period of stagflation”. Federation chairman Cho Suck-rai said: “At this point, the government has little
we
should not sit idle while seeing the economy collapse.” The 30 largest Korean corporations have agreed to spend 94.5 trillion won or $94 billion this year to stimulate the economy, up
room to manoeuvre to overcome current economic difficulties.” The statement followed an emergency meeting of the FKI board. It passed a “Resolution to Boost the Nation’s Economy”, which stated: “We agreed that
more than 25 percent from 2007. They also plan to create 39,000 jobs in the second half of the year, in addition to the 42,000 in the first half. The statement came after the release of economic data for May by the National
Statistical Office on July 7, which pointed to decreasing investment and dwindling production as well as weakening domestic demand. Mining and industrial production fell by 0.6 percent from April to May. Consumer sales
shrank by 0.6 percent. Capital expenditure, a key indicator of business confidence, has fallen in four out of the five months from January to May. The Chosun Ilbo pointed out that May, which has several public holidays, is
traditionally a month with high demand for consumer goods. But this year, sales of durable goods such as cars, computers, telecom devices and furniture decreased by 2.2 percent compared to April, with semi-durable goods
such as clothes and shoes down by 0.2 percent. “The consumption trends show that consumers spent only on essentials and refrained from spending on items that were not urgently needed.” Yoo Byung-kyu, a director of the
Hyundai Economic Research Institute told Chosun Ilbo: “As the business outlook is seen as negative by businesses, apprehension took its toll and firms are unable to decide on what and when to invest.” Official statistics
released on July 10 shows the consumer evaluation index in June at 61.3 (compared to a benchmark of 100). The indicator is based on a survey in which respondents are asked if their living standards have worsened compared
to six months ago. The June figure is the lowest since September 2003—just before the credit card crisis that saw millions of people go into default. Inflation in June was 5.5 percent—the highest in more than nine years. The
Man-soo insisted there is no stagflation in South Korea
administration of President Lee Myung-bak has been trying to downplay economic fears. On July 3, Finance Minister Kang
, but
has admitted that the economy “may be heading in” that direction. However, Kang has been under mounting pressure to resign because of his policy of allowing the won to fall in value alongside the US dollar in a bid to keep
the country’s export prices competitive. His weak currency policy has been criticised for stoking inflation via high prices for imported raw materials, especially oil. South Korea recorded its first trade deficit in 11 years in June
. The combination of rising prices and a slowing economy has created a dilemma for the
central bank. After much speculation of rate hikes to curb inflation, the BOK decided on July 10 to hold the rate unchanged at 5 percent for the 11th month in a row. BOK chief Lee Seong-tae told reporters:
“[D]ecision-making is becoming more difficult with high inflation coinciding with an economic slowdown.” Lee warned in particular against the
demands for wage rises: “We are concerned about the secondary effect of rising inflation, such as a wage price spiral, in which inflation may
creep into wages and increase inflation expectation.”
due to soaring oil prices, which cost an estimated record of $10 billion
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
17/57
2NC NORTH KOREA IMPACT 2/2
The impact is regional instability
Ejaz, 98 (Dr. Manzur, Prof Philosophy of U Punjab, Columnist For BBC, The Nation, and The News, “Pakistan Can Learn From
South Korea’s Economic Woes”, 1-5, http://users.erols.com/ziqbal/ jan_5.htm)
The East Asian currencies in general and South Korean in particular have lost about half of their value in the last few months. This means that their exported goods will become much cheaper and the goods produced in Japan
, to
prop up the battered currencies of South Korea and other East Asian countries is vital for the survival of the industrialized world. --The collapse
of South Korean and other East Asian economies will eliminate their ability to import goods from abroad . At present, the US produces high-value goods like
and other industrialized countries will not be able to compete with them. Consequently, several production units in the industrialized countries will cease to produce, leading to layoffs and, hence, recession. Therefore
machinery, airplanes and defense weapons etc. East Asia, having the sizeable economies and high per capita income, is one of the major markets for the US. If US exports suffer, not only its balance of trade will tilt against it-having serious economic implications-- but also its production will suffer giving rise to recession. Of course, US would like to avert such eventuality at any cost. --South Korea owes more than $160 billion to the foreign banks.
If it defaults on its payments and goes bankrupt, many banks in Japan, US and other western nations will get into a serious crunch: many may burst. Although, it is claimed that US banks have not a major exposure in this
US government officials are
anxious to forestall a South Korean default because they fear it would cause a further loss of confidence in other emerging market
economies, conceivably leading to worldwide recession. Further, US multinational corporations are major players in the world economy and a deterioration of the
emerging markets can lower their profits triggering a downward spiral of the US stock and bond markets. East Asian crisis has already started
showing its negative impact on the Wall Street: US stocks market has already lost about 8% to 10% of its value in the last few months. --The South Korean economy has to be propped up
because North Korea is still conceived to be a potential threat to American interests. Commenting on this aspect US Treasury
Secretary Robert E. Rubin argued, "If you have economic instability [in South Korea], you run the risk of political and social
instability there, and that can have all kinds of national security implications."
situation but active maneuvering by the six US largest banks to get this package approved shows that the world banking system has very high stakes in this crisis. --
Extinction
Chol, 2 – Director Center for Korean American Peace
10-24, http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html
Any military strike initiated against North Korea will promptly explode into a thermonuclear exchange between a tiny nuclear-armed North Korea and
the world's superpower, America. The most densely populated Metropolitan U.S.A., Japan and South Korea will certainly evaporate in The Day After scenario-type
nightmare. The New York Times warned in its August 27, 2002 comment: "North Korea runs a more advanced biological,
chemical and nuclear weapons program, targets American military bases and is developing missiles that could reach the lower 48
states. Yet there's good reason President Bush is not talking about taking out Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. If we tried, the Dear Leader would bombard South Korea and Japan with never gas or even nuclear warheads, and
(according to one Pentagon study) kill up to a million people." Continues… The first two options should be sobering nightmare scenarios for a wise Bush and his policy planners. If they should opt for either of the scenarios,
The North Koreans will use
all their resources in their arsenal to fight a full-scale nuclear exchange with the Americans in the last war of [hu]mankind. A nuclearthat would be their decision, which the North Koreans are in no position to take issue with. The Americans would realize too late that the North Korean mean what they say.
armed North Korea would be most destabilizing in the region and the rest of the world in the eyes of the Americans. They would end up finding themselves reduced to a second-class nuclear power.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
18/57
1NC TEST SUBJECTS SHELL 1/2
A. Poverty causes pools of potential test subjects
Dani Veracity, journalist for Natural News, 06 (3/7/06, <http://www.naturalnews.com/019193.html>)
During the Holocaust, the Nazis confined the marginalized sectors of society -- Jews (including children), gypsies, homosexuals,
the mentally ill and the mentally retarded -- into camps that became human guinea pig-filled laboratories for IG Farben's
experimental drug studies. Today, marginalized populations still make up a large portion of experimental drug test subjects;
however, socioeconomic factors, rather than concentration camp authorities, make them more likely to sell their bodies to Big
Pharma. It's no accident that SFBC, the largest experimental drug testing center in North America, is located in Miami.
According to the St. Petersburg Times, Miami-Dade County "is the only county in the country where more than half the residents
are foreign-born." After immigrants come to Miami from countries like Cuba, Colombia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Jamaica, Argentina
and Mexico, they need money, yet experience the employment limitations that little or no fluency in English, little education,
unfamiliarity, prejudice and, in some cases, lack of a work permit brings. With few other options available, these immigrants find
one of the few legal jobs that doesn't require any amount of English proficiency or education and may even accept forged social
security cards: Professional guinea pig. Many immigrants participate in multiple, simultaneous drug studies. Combining these
experimental drugs is a recipe for disaster "because researchers don't know how the different chemicals interact or what side
effects the mix may have on a person," according to the Bloomberg article "Miami Test Center Lures Poor Immigrants as Human
Guinea Pigs". However, given the fact that some studies only pay $25 per day, what else are the truly marginalized subjects
supposed to do? "It's not the job I would choose, but financial circumstances require you to do it sometimes,'' Venezuelan
immigrant Oscar Cabanerio told Bloomberg.
B. More test subjects improve medicine, which is key to pharma
Dute et. al, Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Health Law, Tort and insurance Law, 04, The Netherlands, 2004, Liability for
and Insurability of Biomédical Research with Human Subjects in a Comparative Perspective p. 229)
In order to improve medicine, it will be necessary to engage test subjects in research. This may always involve the risk for these
test subjects to be exposed to injuries. This is problematic all the more so now that biomedical research is not, at least not merely
and not in the first place, in the interest of the test subject. It always involves other interests as well. namely the public interest of
progress of medicine or medical science, and in addition, the interests of the researcher, the institution for scientific research and
the (pharmaceutical) industry. On account of structural third-party presence at biomedical research involving human subjects,
protection of the test subject against (possible) injury deserves special legal attention. The potential of the injury-causing nature
of biomedical research can be legally mitigated in two ways. On the one hand, by limiting the risks involved with research to a
minimum on the other hand by seeing to it that if an injury does indeed manifest itself with the test subject, this is to be
compensated as adequately as possible. The statutory regulation of Biomedical Research Involving Human Subjects in the
Netherlands intends to offer adequate protection to the test subject in both ways. At the centre of the Dutch legal test subject
protection system is the Biomedical Research Involving Human Subjects Act, applicable to all biomedical research. The
statutory framework is described in paragraph 1.3. The act does not contain any specific liability regime (i.e. liability rules based
on fault are applicable), but does contain an obligation for the sponsor of the research to take out insurance. Liability and
insurance within the framework of biomedical research involving human subjects will be extensively dealt with in Parts II and
III. Critical observations will be added there and the insurance regulation practice will be the subject of extensive discussion as
well. A few more views of the insurance regulation in the light of the objections observed follow in Part N First, however, the
matter of intemational legislation affecting legal protection of the test subject will be briefly discussed (paragraph 1.2).
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
19/57
1NC TEST SUBJECTS SHELL 2/2
C. The Pharmaceutical Industry is key to preventing bioterrorism
Washington Post ‘1 (Justin Gillis, 2001 "Scientists Race for Vaccines," lexis)
U.S. scientists, spurred into action by the events of Sept. 11, have begun a concerted assault on bioterrorism, working to produce
an array of new medicines that include treatments for smallpox, a safer smallpox vaccine and a painless anthrax vaccine. At least
one major drug company, Pharmacia Corp. of Peapack, N.J., has offered to let government scientists roam through the confidential
libraries of millions of compounds it has synthesized to look for drugs against bioterror agents. Other companies have signaled that
they will do the same if asked. These are unprecedented offers, since a drug company's chemical library, painstakingly assembled
over decades, is one of its primary assets, to which federal scientists usually have no access. "A lot of people would say we won
World War II with the help of a mighty industrial base," said Michael Friedman, a onetime administrator at the Food and Drug
Administration who was appointed days ago to coordinate the pharmaceutical industry's efforts. "In this new war against
bioterrorism, the mighty industrial power is the pharmaceutical industry."
One example of the new urgency is an initiative
launched by Eli Lilly & Co. One of the company's infectious-disease experts, Gail Cassell, realized during the anthrax scare that
her company had three drugs that might work as treatments for smallpox, even scarier than anthrax as a potential terrorist weapon.
In a matter of days Cassell, a Lilly vice president, tore through paperwork that normally would have taken months, put samples
of the drugs on a plane and flew them to government laboratories in the Washington area to be tested against smallpox. It's not
clear yet whether the drugs will prove effective. "We all have to think of the situation as being rather urgent," Cassell said.
"You're kind of waiting for the next shoe to drop, given the events of the last two months." Researchers say a generation of young
scientists never called upon before to defend the nation is working overtime in a push for rapid progress. At laboratories of the
National Institutes of Health, at universities and research institutes across the land, people are scrambling. "This has been such a
shock to so many people," said Carole Heilman, a division director at NIH, which is paying for much of the bioterror research.
"People aren't sleeping anymore. Everybody is working as much as they possibly can. Bureaucracy is not a word that's acceptable
anymore." But the campaign, for all its urgency, faces hurdles both scientific and logistical. The kind of research now underway
would normally take at least a decade before products appeared on pharmacy shelves. Scientists are talking about getting at least
some new products out the door within two years, a daunting schedule in medical research. If that happens, it will be with
considerable assistance from the nation's drug companies. They are the only organizations in the country with the scale to move
rapidly to produce pills and vials of medicine that might be needed by the billions. The companies and their powerful lobby in
Washington have been working over the past few weeks to seize the moment and rehabilitate their reputations, tarnished in recent
years by controversy over drug prices and the lack of access to AIDS drugs among poor countries. The companies have already
made broad commitments to aid the government in the short term, offering free pills with a wholesale value in excess of $ 1
billion, as well as other help. The question now is whether that commitment will extend over the several years it will take to build
a national stockpile of next-generation medicines. "This is a time of crisis," Friedman said. "I think the industry is going to be very
patient and going to be making a long-term commitment. It's the right thing to do."
Biological terrorist attack would cause extinction
Steinbruner, ‘97 (John, Sr. Fellow @ Brookings institution, “Biological Weapons: A Plague upon All Houses”, Foreign Policy,
Winter 1997-1998, p. 85-96, JSTOR)
Ultimately the world's military, medical, and business establishments will have to work together to an unprecedented degree if the international community is to
succeed in containing the threat of biological weapons. Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear explosives and lethal
chemicals as potential weapons of mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally important difference: Pathogens are alive,
weapons are not. Nuclear and chemical weapons do not reproduce themselves and do not independently engage in adaptive behavior;
pathogens do both of these things. That deceptively simple observation has immense implications. The use of a manufactured weapon is a
singular event. Most of the damage occurs immediately. The aftereffects, whatever they may be, decay rapidly over time and distance in a reasonably
predictable manner. Even before a nuclear warhead is detonated, for instance, it is possible to estimate the extent of the subsequent
damage and the likely level of radioactive fallout. Such predictability is an essential component for tactical military planning. The use of a
pathogen, by contrast, is an extended process whose scope and timing cannot be precisely controlled. For most potential biological agents,
the predominant drawback Biological Weapons is that they would not act swiftly or decisively enough to be an effective weapon. But for a few pathogens
ones most likely to have a decisive effect and therefore the ones most likely to be contemplated for deliberately hostile use-the risk
runs in the other direction. A lethal pathogen that could efficiently spread from one victim to another would be capable of initiating
an intensifying cascade of disease that might ultimately threaten the entire world population. The 1918 influenza epidemic demonstrated the
potential for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
20/57
UNIQUENESS – PHARMA UP
Despite the recent economic downturn U.S. pharmaceutical companies are still experiencing high growth
Reuters ‘9 (May 13th 2009, Reuters, ‘Learns about the U.S. pharmaceutical Industry Report, 2008-2009,
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS140811+13-May-2009+BW20090513)
The United States has the largest pharmaceutical industry in the world. In 2007, its pharmceutical revenue totaled at US$ 315 billion.
In the past decades, the structure of American pharmaceutical industry has changed dramatically caused by the aging of population,
the emerging of bio-pharmaceutical technology and fierce global competition. The key players in the United States including Pfizer,
GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, etc. American pharmaceutical companies paid great attention to R & D due to the free
market competition and patent protection of new medicines in the US. Since the year of 2000, the pharmaceutical R & D expenditure
has been maintaining an increase, even in 2008, impacted by the global financial crisis, the pharmaceutical R & D expenditure totaled
at US $65.2 billion, up 3.16% of last year.
Despite marginally slower growth, the U.S. pharma industry is still a cornerstone of the economy
EATG ‘9 (European Aids Treatment Group, 1/12/09, ‘2009 world pharma sales top 820 billion’, http://www.eatg.org/eatg/GlobalHIV-News/Pharma-Industry/2009-world-pharma-sales-forecast-to-top-820-billion)
Initial expectations for growth in the US market of 4%-6% have been revised downward because of the economic climate, and also
reflect continuing patent expiries and fewer new product launches this year. Nevertheless, the healthcare industry “continues to be
a star in the US economy,” says NAPRx, which is the largest US trade association for pharmaceutical salespeople.
U.S. pharmaceutical companies are still reporting higher profit margins
Business Wire ‘9 (May 4th 2009, ‘McKesson Reports Fiscal 2009 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results’,
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3216979)
(Source: Business Wire)McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) today reported that revenues for the fourth quarter ended March 31,
2009 were $26.2 billion compared to $26.2 billion a year ago. Fourth-quarter earnings per diluted share was $1.01 compared to $1.05
per diluted share a year ago. Last year's earnings included one cent per diluted share from discontinued operations. Fourth-quarter
earnings were impacted by a non-cash, pre-tax impairment charge of $63 million ($60 million after-tax), or approximately 22 cents
per diluted share. The charge, which is recorded within the Distribution Solutions segment, is primarily related to our 39% equity
investment in Parata Systems, LLC. For the fiscal year, McKesson had revenues of $106.6 billion versus $101.7 billion a year ago,
and earnings per diluted share of $2.95. Earnings per diluted share was impacted by a pre-tax charge in the third fiscal quarter of $493
million ($311 million after-tax) for the AWP litigation. Excluding the AWP litigation charge, and the prior year Securities Litigation
credit, McKesson's earnings per diluted share from continuing operations for the full year was $4.07 compared to $3.31 a year ago.
"Our results in the fourth quarter capped off another solid full-year financial performance. Throughout the year, we demonstrated
strong execution in the face of the challenging economy," said John H. Hammergren, chairman and chief executive officer.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
21/57
LINK – POOR PEOPLE = TEST SUBJECTS
Poor people are willing test subjects
Katie Garey, SSU researcher, 98 Katie Garey, SSU researcher, 1998, American Drug Industry Uses the Poor as Human Guinea Pigs
<http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/articles/13-american-drug-industry-uses-the-poor-as-human-guinea-pigs/>
Over 40,000 human guinea pigs participate in drug testing experiments run by huge pharmaceutical companies in the United
States annually. Most of these people are poor and “down-and-outers,” who need the money drug testing provides. Ever since the
mid-1970s, when the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) issued stricter rules on informed consent, high compensation has been
necessary to attract research subjects for pharmaceutical tests. This generally means that the lowest income people in the U.S. are
the ones who participate, since few people with comfortable financial circumstances volunteer to be guinea pigs for the drug
companies. The nation’s drug testing processes seem to be based on the exploitation of America’s lowest classes. Last fall, The
Wall Street journal published an article that reported Eli Lilly, maker of Prozac, uses homeless people to test drugs for FDA
approval. The Eli Lilly program, which pays $85 per day, is reportedly famous “through soup kitchens, prisons, and shelters
from coast-to-coast.” A nurse at the Lilly clinic in Indianapolis told the Journal that the majority of participants in the Phase I
testing programs are alcoholics, although heavy drinkers and drug users are supposed to be excluded from experimental
programs because the presence of alcohol or other drugs in the body compromises test results. Participation in drug and medical
studies is a serious gamble. No one knows the long-term side effects of the drugs volunteers take. Animal drug testing, however,
the mechanism that is supposed to minimize the danger to volunteers of drugs that have never been tested on humans, is
unreliable. For example, in the early 1990s, the FDA approved fialuridine for healthy human volunteers after it proved non-toxic
to dogs. Dogs, however, have an enzyme that neutralizes the drug, which humans apparently do not. Five Phase II patients died
after taking fialuridine. Even Princeton University’s highly rated program raises questions about the ethics of drug testing. The
Princeton site makes participation especially alluring to the poor. The unit runs a courtesy van for easy access to the facility.
There is a bank within walking distance, and the unit gives volunteers a letter to guarantee they won’t have problems cashing
their checks. Screening participants enjoy a free, all-you-can-eat lunch. Once admitted to the study, they get free meals, shelter,
cable TV, and a video library. The nation’s big drug companies have never been known for high-minded ethical standards.
Before 1900, orphans and street urchins were used as control groups in drug experiments. Testing remained informal in the early
part of the twentieth century, as companies issued experimental drugs to doctors to try out on sick patients. But after the
thalidomide scare of 1962, Congress passed laws to standardize drug testing procedures. Animal tests were then required for all
new drugs, followed by experiments on healthy human subjects, who were most often prisoners.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
22/57
IMPACTS – BIOTERROR
Strong pharma industry solves bioterror attack
Warrick ’8 (Joby Warrick, Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, November 30,
2008; http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/11/29/AR2008112901921.html)
Seven years after the 2001 anthrax attacks, a congressionally ordered study finds a growing threat of biological terrorism and calls for
aggressive defenses on par with those used to prevent a terrorist nuclear detonation. Due for release next week, a draft of the study
warns that future bioterrorists may use new technology to make synthetic versions of killers such as Ebola, or genetically modified
germs designed to resist ordinary vaccines and antibiotics. The bipartisan report faults the Bush administration for devoting
insufficient resources to prevent an attack and says U.S. policies have at times impeded international biodefense efforts while
promoting the rapid growth of a network of domestic laboratories possessing the world's most dangerous pathogens. The number of
such "high-containment" labs in the United States has tripled since 2001, yet U.S. officials have not implemented adequate safeguards
to prevent deadly germs from being stolen or accidentally released, it says. "The rapid growth in the number of such labs in recent
years has created new safety and security risks which must be managed," the draft report states. The report is the product of a sixmonth study by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism, which Congress created last
spring in keeping with one of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. Drafts of chapters pertaining to bioterrorism were
obtained by The Washington Post. The document cites progress in many areas of biodefense since the deadly anthrax attacks of 2001,
including major investments in research, stockpiling of drugs and development of a network of sensors designed to detect airborne
viruses and bacteria. The Bush administration has spent more than $20 billion on such countermeasures, far more than any of its
predecessors. But the report says the next administration must do much more to prevent dangerous pathogens from falling into the
wrong hands in the first place. While politicians often warn about the dangers of nuclear terrorism, a serious biological attack would
be easier to accomplish and deserves a top priority, it says. "The more probable threat of bioterrorism should be put on equal footing
with the more devastating threat of nuclear terrorism," the draft states. It calls on the Obama administration to develop a
comprehensive approach to preventing bioterrorism and to "banish the 'too-hard-to-do' mentality that has hobbled previous efforts."
Some bioweapons specialists have argued that it is practically impossible to prevent a biological attack, because lethal strains of
anthrax bacteria and other deadly microbes can be found in nature. But the report argues that it would be far easier for bioterrorists to
obtain the seeds of an attack from laboratories that have ready supplies of "hot" strains. U.S. officials think an Army biodefense lab
was the source of the anthrax spores used in the 2001 attacks that killed five people. The biodefense research industry that sprang up
after 2001 offers potential solutions to a future attack, but also numerous new opportunities for theft or diversion of deadly germs, the
report says. Today, about 400 research facilities and 14,000 people are authorized to work with deadly strains in the United States
alone, and several of the new labs have been embroiled in controversies because of security breaches, such as the escape of lab
animals. No single government agency has authority to oversee security at these U.S. labs, most of which are run by private
companies or universities. Such facilities in the United States "are not regulated" unless they obtain government funding or acquire
pathogens from the government's list of known biowarfare agents. Because of this gap, labs can work with "dangerous but unlisted
pathogens, such as the SARS virus," which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, without the government's knowledge.
Internationally, the challenges are even greater. While the U.S. government continues to spend billions of dollars to secure Cold-Warera nuclear stockpiles, similar efforts to dismantle Soviet bioweapons facilities have been scaled back because of disagreements with
the Russian government, the report notes. The only global treaty that outlaws the development of biological weapons has no
mechanism for inspections or enforcement. Efforts to strengthen the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention were dealt a symbolic
blow in 2001 when the Bush administration withdrew its support for a new accord that had been under negotiation for six years.
Meanwhile, the growth in biodefense research seen in the United States has spread to dozens of countries, including developing
nations such as Malaysia and Cuba that are investing heavily to develop world-class biotech industries. One of the fastest-growing
technologies is DNA synthesis, which offers new capabilities to alter the genes of existing pathogens or synthesize them artificially.
While governments, trade groups and professional organizations are experimenting with various voluntary controls over such new
capabilities, the United States should lead a global effort to strengthen oversight and clamp down on the unregulated export of deadly
microbes, the panel said. "Rapid scientific advances and the global spread of biotechnology equipment and know-how are currently
outpacing the modest international attempts to promote biosecurity," the report says.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
23/57
2NC ECONOMY MODULE
Maintaining Big Pharma key to econ
Fishman, staffwriter for the NYT, 05 (Ted C. Fishman, staffwriter for the New York Times, Jan 9 2005 LN, <
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/09/magazine/09COUNTERFEIT.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1>)
The threat to American interests is not hard to identify. According to the Milken Institute, Big Pharma employs 400,000
Americans directly, creates another 2.7 million jobs and contributes $172 billion to the U.S. economy. It is one of the most
important engines of the knowledge economy; in 2003 the pharmaceutical industry invested $33.2 billion in drug research. That
does not include the nearly $30 billion spent on life sciences by the publicly financed National Institutes of Health, which pays
for research that leads to commercial drugs. Weaken the drug industry and you weaken one pillar of the U.S. economy.
Global nuclear war
Mead ‘9 (Walter Russell Mead the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations,
“Only Makes You Stronger”, The New Republic, February 4, 2009)
History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring
messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the
Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the
American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of
financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned
German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts
might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if
we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
24/57
2NC – HEG MODULE
Pharma innovation key to comeptitiveness
Marketwatch, 12-15-08, Online
"It has become increasingly clear that continued leadership in medical innovation has a direct correlation to job growth and U.S.
competitiveness, as well as the health of all Americans," said Former Congressman Dick Gephardt, who moderated the discussion.
"This region is home to some of the country's most innovative universities and biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies who
together employ hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians - making it an ideal place to discuss how we can ensure continued health
and economic security through medical innovation."
That’s key to hegemony.
Adam Segal, 2004, (Is America Losing its Primacy? Foreign Affairs)
The United States' global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new technologies and industries faster than anyone
else. For the last five decades, U.S. scientific innovation and technological entrepreneurship have ensured the country's economic
prosperity and military power. It was Americans who invented and commercialized the semiconductor, the personal computer, and the
Internet; other countries merely followed the U.S. lead.
Today, however, this technological edge-so long taken for granted-may be slipping, and the most serious challenge is coming from
Asia. Through competitive tax policies, increased investment in research and development (R&D), and preferential policies for
science and technology (S&T) personnel, Asian governments are improving the quality of their science and ensuring the exploitation
of future innovations. The percentage of patents issued to and science journal articles published by scientists in China, Singapore,
South Korea, and Taiwan is rising. Indian companies are quickly becoming the second-largest producers of application services in the
world, developing, supplying, and managing database and other types of software for clients around the world. South Korea has
rapidly eaten away at the U.S. advantage in the manufacture of computer chips and telecommunications software. And even China has
made impressive gains in advanced technologies such as lasers, biotechnology, and advanced materials used in semiconductors,
aerospace, and many other types of manufacturing.
Although the United States' technical dominance remains solid, the globalization of research and development is exerting considerable
pressures on the American system. Indeed, as the United States is learning, globalization cuts both ways: it is both a potent catalyst of
U.S. technological innovation and a significant threat to it. The United States will never be able to prevent rivals from developing new
technologies; it can remain dominant only by continuing to innovate faster than everyone else. But this won't be easy; to keep its
privileged position in the world, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home.
Nuclear war
Khalilzad ’95 (Zalmay, director of Strategy and Doctrine Program at RAND, US ambassador to Afghanistan; “Losing the moment?
The United States and the World after the Cold War,” Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995, p. ln)
Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to
multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not
as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the
global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law.
Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear
proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude
the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the
attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a
bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
25/57
2NC – INFECTIOUS DISEASES MODULE
Pharma Industry is vital to combat the mutation and creation of infectious diseases
I.F.P.M.A. 3 (International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Associations – non-profit, NGO representing more than 60
national industry organizations, Dec., “Neglected Diseases and the Pharmaceutical Industry”
http://www.ifpma.org/Documents/NR235/Brochure_Neglected%20Diseases.pdf)
Nevertheless, neglected diseases definitely require adequate actions and solutions. These diseases impose a great social burden on the
poorest populations, impairing their already very low economic productivity. Consequently, we should all argue for a solution that
would best utilise the existing capacities and mobilise all the stakeholders. The pharmaceutical industry, as a unique source of new
medicines, has initiated and participated in numerous programmes and partnerships aiming at improving health outcomes in
developing countries. These initiatives can serve to develop an adequate approach to tackle the problem of neglected diseases. They
are briefly discussed below. The pharmaceutical industry is an unquestionable pillar of the medicinal innovation. Over decades, it has
discovered and developed treatments for all major diseases affecting the world’s population. Infectious diseases have always been one
of the key components of pharmaceutical companies’ R&D budgets. Because of new infectious diseases emerging and old ones
mutating, the pharmaceutical industry has never stopped its R&D efforts to discover and develop new needed treatments.
Millions die of disease every year
OECD Observer, 03 (OECD Observer, 4/25/03 http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/996)
However, so far at least, SARS is still an emerging disease with relatively modest impact on human life. And to the extent that
health authorities worldwide mostly have responded quickly to the challenges thrown at them – thanks in no small amount to
WHO’s surveillance networks – we can take heart in the fact that our global defense systems can work.But this is by no means so
for all emerging infectious diseases. Worldwide, infectious diseases remain the leading cause of mortality, with 17 million deaths
each year. Since the 1970s at least 30 new infectious diseases have emerged for which no effective treatment exists. And in this
modern world, diseases can spread further and faster than ever before, threatening our lives, societies, and economies.
Causing extinction
Steinbruner 98, [John D., Senior Fellow @ Brookings Institution “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses.” Foreign Policy
Winter97/98 Issue 109, p85, 12p//EBSCOhost]
It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a key to our survival that, so far, the main lines of defense against this threat have not
depended on explicit policies or organized efforts. In the long course of evolution, the human body has developed physical barriers
and a biochemical immune system whose sophistication and effectiveness exceed anything we could design or as yet even fully
understand. But evolution is a sword that cuts both ways: New diseases emerge, while old diseases mutate and adapt. Throughout
history, there have been epidemics during which human immunity has broken down on an epic scale. An infectious agent believed to
have been the plague bacterium killed an estimated 20 million people over a four-year period in the fourteenth century, including
nearly one-quarter of Western Europe's population at the time. Since its recognized appearance in 1981, some 20 variations of the
HIVvirus have infected an estimated 29.4 million worldwide, with 1.5 million people currently dying of aids each year. Malaria,
tuberculosis, and cholera-once thought to be under control-are now making a comeback. As we enter the twenty-first century,
changing conditions have enhanced the potential for widespread contagion. The rapid growth rate of the total world population, the
unprecedented freedom of movement across international borders, and scientific advances that expand the capability for the deliberate
manipulation of pathogens are all cause for worry that the problem might be greater in the future than it has ever been in the past. The
threat of infectious pathogens is not just an issue of public health, but a fundamental security problem for the species as a whole.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
26/57
2NC – AIDS MODULE
Big pharmaceuticals key to solve AIDS—investment
EFPIA, 2K (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Association, 2K, <http://www.efpia.org/2_indust/pharmainnovation.pdf>)
Several responsible AIDS activists have become concerned that the attacks against the industry – including the intellectual
property foundation of its drug development – threaten to discourage new investments, as survey data suggest that after a
substantial rise through most of the past decade in the number of anti-retroviral drug compounds in development for the potential
treatment and possible cure of HIV/AIDS, there has been a steady decline in the number over the past three years –
corresponding to the period of growing attack on IP rights linked to AIDS medicines.
AIDS causes extinction
Mathiu, Africa News writer, 2K Mutuma Mathiu, Africa News, July 15, 2000
Every age has its killer. But Aids is without precedent. It is comparable only to the Black Death of the Middle Ages in the terror it
evokes and the graves it fills. But unlike the plague, Aids does not come at a time of scientific innocence: It flies in the face of space exploration, the
manipulation of genes and the mapping of the human genome. The Black Death - the plague, today easily cured by antibiotics and prevented by vaccines - killed
a full 40 million Europeans, a quarter of the population of Europe, between 1347 and 1352. But it was a death that could be avoided by the simple expedient of
changing addresses and whose vector could be seen and exterminated. With Aids, the vector is humanity itself, the nice person in the next seat in
the bus. There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. Every human being who expresses the innate desire to preserve the human genetic pool through the
natural mechanism of reproduction is potentially at risk. And whereas death by plague was a merciful five days of agony, HIV is not satisfied until years
of stigma and excruciating torture have been wrought on its victim . The plague toll of tens of millions in two decades was a veritable holocaust,
but it will be nothing compared to the viral holocaust: So far, 18.8 million people are already dead; 43.3 million infected worldwide (24.5 million of them
Africans) carry the seeds of their inevitable demise - unwilling participants in a March of the Damned. Last year alone, 2.8 million lives went down the drain, 85
per cent of them African; as a matter of fact, 6,000 Africans will die today. The daily toll in Kenya is 500. There has never been fought a war on these shores
that was so wanton in its thirst for human blood. During the First World War, more than a million lives were lost at the Battle of the Somme alone, setting a
trend that was to become fairly common, in which generals would use soldiers as cannon fodder; the lives of 10 million young men were sacrificed for a cause
that was judged to be more worthwhile than the dreams - even the mere living out of a lifetime - of a generation. But there was proffered an explanation: It was
the honour of bathing a battlefield with young blood, patriotism or simply racial pride. Aids, on the other hand, is a holocaust without even a lame or
bigoted justification. It is simply a waste. It is death contracted not in the battlefield but in bedrooms and other venues of furtive
intimacy. It is difficult to remember any time in history when the survival of the human race was so hopelessly in jeopardy.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
27/57
1NC POPULATION SHELL
A. Unique Link – Ecological collapse is on the brink, but poverty now checks the impact
Ehrlich, Ph.D. from the University of Kansas - President, Center for Conservation Biology
Bing Professor of Population Studies at Stanford, 2008 Paul, Environment 360/Yale University, “Too Many People, Too Much Consumption,” 04 Aug
2008, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2041, accessed 7/11/09, AJF
The dominant animal is wasting its brilliance and its wonderful achievements; civilization’s fate is being determined by decision makers who
determinedly look the other way in favor of immediate comfort and profit. Thousands of scientists recently participated in a Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment that outlined our current environmental dilemma, but the report’s dire message made very little impact. Absent attention to that
message, the fates of Easter Island, the Classic Maya civilization, and Nineveh — all of which collapsed following environmental degradation —
await us all. We believe it is possible to avoid that global denouement. Such mobilization means developing some consensus on goals —
perhaps through a global dialogue in which people discuss the human predicament and decide whether they would like to see a
maximum number of people living at a minimum standard of living, or perhaps a much lower population size that gives individuals a
broad choice of lifestyles. We have suggested a forum for such a dialogue, modeled partly on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but with more
“bottom up” participation. It is clear that only widespread changes in norms can give humanity a chance of attaining a sustainable and
reasonably conflict-free society. How to achieve such change — involving everything from demographic policies and transformation of planet-wide energy,
industrial, and agricultural systems, to North-South and interfaith relationships and military postures — is a gigantic challenge to everyone. Politicians, industrialists,
ecologists, social scientists, everyday citizens, and the media must join this debate. Whether it is possible remains to be seen; societies have managed to make
major transitions in the recent past, as the civil rights revolution in the United States and the collapse of communism in the Soviet
Union clearly demonstrate. We’ll continue to hope and work for a cultural transformation in how we treat each other and the natural systems we depend upon.
We can create a peaceful and sustainable global civilization, but it will require realistic thinking about the problems we face and a new mobilization of political will.
B. Extinction
Brown, 06 professor of physiology at West Virginia University (Paul, Notes from a Dying Planet, p. 3-4)
The threats we face stem from overpopulation and environmental degradation. The resulting climate change and mass extinctions are
leading to ecological collapse, in which the once-robust tapestry of interrelationships among living creatures, climate, and our physical environment has been weakened and is
starting to unravel. Clinical indicators of our planet’s serious illness are illustrated in the graph. I’ve adjusted the vertical scales for population, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, temperature,
and extinction of species per year so they all have a common minimum and maximum. All the minima occurred tens of thousands of years BC, and all the maxima are now. The state of the
We’re consuming the world’s resources faster than they can be restored. The world’s population is now doubling in less than fifty years.
must start to decline before
2050 if we are to survive. The upper limit, to put it simply, will never be reached because we would all die first.
Because of population growth
Earth today is unique.
Around mid-century the world’s population is expected to level off at eight to twelve billion people. The lower number is far too high: population
and increasing consumption, concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane in our atmosphere are the highest in human history, as are global temperatures. This is not
The rate of species extinctions is comparable to mass extinctions that have
occurred only five times before, and is likely to exceed those . The total decline of species since the Industrial Revolution will soon be worse than the mass extinction
normal climatic fluctuation, as fossil-fuel industry shills would have you believe.
caused by the asteroid impact sixty-five million years ago off the Yucatan peninsula, which wiped out 83% of species including the dinosaurs. Before we came along, species evolved and
went extinct for billions of years, creating and filling a diversity of ecological niches. Organisms used energy from the sun to grow and reproduce, recycling the materials needed for life
through an interdependent worldwide ecosystem. Mechanisms existed to maintain ecological stability, ensuring that the environment didn’t change too fast for evolution to keep up. Our
Today’s ongoing
catastrophe may eliminate all but the smallest and simplest of life forms.
Our species has flourished, but without realizing it we’ve
changed our environment too fast for other species to adapt. A system’s stability can only be eroded so far, after which it becomes unstable. We’re
approaching a point where the world’s ecosystem will change too fast even for us to adapt. We will become extinct . It’s already too late for
biosphere recovered from calamitous events like asteroid collisions, even though only a minority of species made it through some of those catastrophes.
us to return to the world as we found it or even as it was ten years ago. We’ve wiped out too many species. But we can protect the remaining fragile stability. In a word, we must seek
sustainability, which means consuming resources only as fast as they’re replenished. All the trends on our graph have to be reversed, until they’re all back to pre-industrial levels or lower. This
doesn’t mean returning to a pre-industrial quality of life – in fact, we should all be able to live much better once there are fewer of us. But
we have to take effective action very
soon, before it’s too late.
C. Linear impact – every life saved now means ten dead in the future
Ehrlich, 74 – Professor of Biology @ Stanford (Paul, New York Times)
Furthermore, there are other pernicious fallacies in the “what we as Americans can do about the world population program” game. Let’s start with a fallacy that the
authors helped to create-the idea that we might successfully pressure governments of developing countries into launching effective population control programs. In the
first edition of our book “The Population Bomb,” it was suggested that the United States try to use its food aid as a lever to get recalcitrant governments moving on
population control programs. The logic then (as today) was impeccable. If you deluded people into thinking that either the U.S could ( or
would) supply food in perpetuity for any number of people, you were doing evil. Sooner or later, popualation growth would completely outstrip the
capacity of the United States or any other nation to supply food. For every 1,000 people saved today, perhaps 10,000 would die
when the crunch came. Simply sending food to hungry nations with population explosions is analogous to a physician prescribing
aspirin as a treatment for a patient with operable cancer-in deferring something unpleasant, disaster is entrained . Yes, send some good- but insist
that population control measure be instituted. But despite the logic, no one in the U.S. Government paid the slightest heed to that suggestion ( or to related proposals by
William and Paul Paddock in their 1968 book, “Famine-1975!”) , and the point is now moot, since we have no more surplus food.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
28/57
2NC OVERVIEW
DA outweighs and turns the case
1. Extinction --- overpop causes ecological destruction and extinction through resource exploitation, that’s Brown.
2. Linear impact. We’re straight-turning their systemic impacts -- every life saved now means ten people die in a population
crunch, that’s Ehrlich.
3. Environmental collapse outweighs and turns war
Cairns, 4 - Distinguished Professor of Environmental Biology Emeritus, Department of Biology and Director Emeritus, University
Center for Environmental and Hazardous Materials Studies @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (John Cairns Jr,
“Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethics,” Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics,
http://ottokinne.de/esepbooks/EB2Pt2.pdf#page=66)
Wars between humans are devastating, but the human war being waged on the environment will have a far greater effect on
humankind. Peace for humankind is a superb vision. However, if humankind does not cease making war (i.e., destroying) on Earth’s
ecological life support system and the species that comprise it, peace will be built on a foundation of sand. Paul R. Ehrlich (Professor of population studies at Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA) notes: “We’re waging a war on the environment, a very
successful one” (quoted in The Guardian, Friday, October 24, 2003). If natural capital is destroyed or impaired, ecosystem services
will be lost (e.g., maintaining atmos- pheric gas balance). This loss will reduce the planet’s carrying capacity for humans and per
capita resources. The inevitable result is resource wars. Exponential population growth reduces per capita resources such as water,
forests, croplands, etc. Another cause for concern is mass migration from countries that have exceeded their carrying capacity to
countries where resources appear to be more abundant.
Individuals who believe that humankind is immune from natural law need only become informed about the recent effects when
Hurricane Isabel hit the 100+ miles of barrier islands (the “Outer Banks”) on the east coast of North Carolina, USA. The hurricane
washed out much of the main road for the islands, destroyed motels and million dollar houses, and even divided one island into several
islets. A whole town, Hatteras Village, was cut off, temporarily at least, from the mainland.
One persistent belief, especially in the United States, is that nature can be vanquished. At the core of this belief is a conviction that
there are no limits to growth. Proponents of unlimited growth consider certain ideas subversive: that limits exist, that finite limits exist
on a finite planet, and that humans are subject to a finite carrying capacity (as with any other species). Peace is more than the absence
of war. The probability of peace will be dramatically increased if Earth’s life support systems are nurtured and natural capital is not
squandered, thus markedly reducing the likelihood of resource wars. If humankind’s war on nature continues, humankind will suffer
grievous harm.
D. Turns Case: Overpop overwhelms social services
Evans, 7 – Ph.D. Comp Sci @ University of Glasgow, over 15 years of experience in the technology and start-up industries (James
Huw, “World Overpopulation Killing Earth,”
http://environmentalism.suite101.com/article.cfm/we_are_the_environmental_problem)
If we are to effectively deal with the planet-wide challenges of the 21st century (global warming being the most well-known), we have
to address the issue of how many people the planet can effectively support. Overpopulation can lead to epidemics, overwhelmed
social services (health, education, law enforcement, and more), and strain on the ecosystem from abuse of fertile land and production
of high volumes of waste (Malcolm Potts, Popul Dev Rev 1997;23: 1-40, cited in BMJ 2006 article).
Most of the projected extra 3 billion people will be born in less developed regions which don't yet have the social infrastructure to
cope with such an increase. Many people may have a life of unemployment and poverty, without access to a good education. They
may starve. In a world of plenty, it is morally and ethically unacceptable to be condemning so many people to death. It is economic
genocide.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
29/57
TURNS CASE – RACISM
Population crunch causes xenophobic takeover and widespread racism
Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 90 - *Professor of Population Studies and Professor of Biological Sciences @ Stanford and **Senior
Research Associate in the Department of Biological Sciences @ Stanford
(Paul and Anne, “The Bang, the Whimper, and the Alternative,” http://www.ditext.com/ehrlich/9.html)
There remains the problem that, as the world gets further and further out of control, crazies on both the left and the right may exert
increasingly xenophobic pressures on national governments. The rise of fundamentalism in both East and West is a completely
understandable but not at all encouraging sample of what the future may hold in terms of conflict. Those struggling to achieve a
permanently peaceful world still have much work to do, especially as growing and already over-populated nations struggle to divide
up dwindling resources in a deteriorating global environment.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
30/57
TURNS CASE – DEMOCRACY
Population pressures undermine democracy
Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 90 - *Professor of Population Studies and Professor of Biological Sciences @ Stanford and **Senior
Research Associate in the Department of Biological Sciences @ Stanford
(Paul and Anne, “The Bang, the Whimper, and the Alternative,” http://www.ditext.com/ehrlich/9.html)
We can't foretell precisely where the "if current trends continue" scenario will lead us. But one thing seems safe to predict: starvation
and epidemic disease will raise death rates over most of the planet. Another is that social problems will proliferate with population
growth, and that democracy as a form of government will be at risk. A recent study by former Ambassador Marshall Green and
Patricia Barnett compared measures of population pressures and the political stability of nations. They found that, in general, rapid
population growth, particularly in nations with sharp ethnic divisions, "places enormous strains on political institutions." It threatens
political stability by promoting rapid urbanization, increasing the proportion of youths in the population, and expanding labor forces
more rapidly than jobs are created.4 The study found that "only a handful of countries with serious demographic pressures managed to
maintain stable constitutional governments with good records on civil and political rights."
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
31/57
2NC – RESOURCE WARS MODULE
Scarcity causes resource wars – those are most probable
Cairns, 4 - Distinguished Professor of Environmental Biology Emeritus, Department of Biology and Director Emeritus, University
Center for Environmental and Hazardous Materials Studies @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (John Cairns Jr,
“Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethics,” Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics,
http://ottokinne.de/esepbooks/EB2Pt2.pdf#page=66)
The most probable cause of this curious position is humankind’s obsession with growth. On a finite planet with finite resources,
continued growth induces scarcity. Then, scarcity leads to resource wars, mass migration, political instability and, arguably most
importantly, competition for increasingly scarce resources (e.g. oil). Equitable and fair sharing of resources, including those needed to
maintain the planet’s ecological life-support system, will require both sharing and population control. Humankind is rapidly
approaching the time when it will be attempting to manage the entire planet for sustainability.
Half the world’s human population is living marginally or worse, and yet Renner (2003a) reports that military expenditures are on the
rise. In 2001, a conservative estimate of world military expenditures was US$839 billion, of which the United States spends 36% and
those states considered hostile to the United States spend 3% (Renner, 2003a). Even so, expenditures for the military are expected to
continue rising (Stevenson and Bumiller, 2002; Dao, 2002). Even 25% of these funds would provide a much needed programme to
develop alternative energy sources, which would also diminish the perceived need for resource wars.
Renner and Sheehan (2003) state that approximately 25% of the 50 wars and armed conflicts of recent years were triggered or
exacerbated by resource exploitation. Hussein persisted as a political leader by using resource money (in this case, oil) to maintain
power by a variety of methods, including murder. The use of resource funds to maintain power is all too common (e.g. Le Billon,
2001). Ending such misuse of power and the resultant conflicts has proven impossible because it is difficult to displace the power elite
(e.g. United Nations Security Council, 2002).
Resource wars cause extinction
Heinberg, 4 – Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, faculty @ New College of California (Richard, “Book Excerpt:
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World,” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/2291)
Last One Standing – The path of competition for remaining resources. If the leadership of the US continues with current policies, the
next decades will be filled with war, economic crises, and environmental catastrophe. Resource depletion and population pressure
are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. The political elites, especially in the US, are incapable of dealing with the
situation. Their preferred “solution” is simply to commandeer other nations’ resources, using military force.
The worst-case scenario would be the general destruction of human civilization and most of the ecological life-support system of the
planet. That is, of course, a breathtakingly alarming prospect. As such, we might prefer not to contemplate it – except for the fact that
considerable evidence attests to its likelihood.
The notion that resource scarcity often leads to increased competition is certainly well founded. This is general true among non-human
animals, among which competition for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour.
Iraq is actually the nexus of several different kinds of conflict – between consuming nations (e.g., France and the US); between
western industrial nations and “terrorist” groups; and – most obviously – between a powerful consuming nation and a weaker,
troublesome, producing nation.
Politicians may find it easier to persuade their constituents to fight a common enemy than to conserve and share.
War is always grim, but as resources become more scarce and valuable, as societies become more centralized and therefore more
vulnerable, and as weaponry becomes more sophisticated and widely dispersed, warfare could become even more destructive that the
case during the past century.
By far the greatest concern for the future of warfare must be the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The US is conducting research into
new types of nuclear weapons—bunker busters, small earth-penetrators, etc. Recent US administrations have enunciated a policy of
nuclear first-strike.
Chemical and biological weapons are of secondary concern, although new genetic engineering techniques may enable the creation of
highly infectious and antibiotic-resistant “supergerms” cable of singling out specific ethnic groups.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
32/57
2NC – PEAL OIL MODULE
Peak oil coming now – production maxed out in 1970 and all sources agree
Grant, 7 - writer on population and the environment, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Environment and Population
Affairs (Lindsey, “Peak Oil Prospects - Are We There Yet?” Social Contract Journal, Volume 18, Number 1, Fall 2007,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_18_1/tsc_18_1_grant.shtml)
In the 1950s, Shell Oil geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States would peak about 1970 and
thereafter inescapably drift downward. He was generally derided, but production did indeed peak in 1970. After that several other
petroleum geologists applied “Hubbert’s curve” to world recoverable oil resources, and many of them arrived at a peak sometime
between 2005 and 2025. They were dismissed shrilly by the oil companies and others who have a stake in more or less perpetual oil
supplies, but their predictions are looking better and better. Now, a new report by a Dutch study group shows that the peak may
have passed already.1 It cites the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) as showing conventional world crude oil production
peaking at 74.27 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May 2005. For all liquid fuels, EIA puts the peaks at 85.38 mb/d in May 2005 and
85.54 mb/d in July 2006.2 (That includes crude oil plus heavy oils and tar sands, natural gas liquids, coal-based liquids, gas-based
liquids and even biofuels—the proposed substitutes for crude oil.) The International Energy Agency (IEA) puts the peak for all forms
of liquid fuels at 86.13 mb/d in July 2006. By August 2007 output was 1.2 percent below the 2006 peak. Oil production has been on a
plateau since 2004, with signs of decline just appearing. That follows an era of remarkable growth. Consider these figures for oil:
1960: 20.97 mb/d. 1970: 45.89. 1980: 59.56. 1990: 60.49. 2000: 69.37. 3 The evidence is more convincing because it comes from two
groups that have resisted the very concept of peak oil. The EIA has heretofore based its projections on demand rather than supply, and
thereby regularly made serious errors.4 The IEA in July for the first time concluded (reluctantly?) that the oil market will be
“extremely tight” by 2012, though it was silent about the longer term. 5 One peak is not necessarily a proof. The peak we have seen
may reflect transient factors or voluntary restraints on oil output by OPEC, but OPEC production has reflected its capabilities more
than OPEC quotas, and the Saudis’ claim of excess capacity beyond current output is suspect.
Need to keep the US population in check to avoid the worst impacts
Erickson, 6 – Minnesota State Director of the Izaak Walton League and Minnesotans for Sustainability
(Dell, “A Sustainable U.S. Population: When?” The Social Contract Journal, Volume 17, Number 1, Fall 2006,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_17_01/tsc_17_01_erickson.shtml)
Above all else, an energy policy is a population policy. Populations grow by increasing energy consumption. Unless the U.S. population
and economic growth reach a plateau, increasing demands for oil and natural gas will continue even as supply diminishes. As energy resources
fall, the population must decline in lockstep. Thus, either immigration must stop and total fertility fall or the United States will experience a continually
deteriorating economy and environment. The two primary sources of energy for industrialized societies are oil and natural gas. The world’s production of oil is now
peaking and will soon begin its inexorable decline. The arrival of Peak Oil signals the end of the brief cheap petroleum era. The world’s reliance on
cheap oil implies that almost every sector of every society will be affected —everything from transportation to electricity to food production and clothing
and plastic products. Contrary to those declaring the world is running out of oil, there remains to be extracted about as much oil as has been consumed through all of
history. Thus, there is time, a little, to adjust. The remaining oil however, will be increasingly costly, more difficult to extract, and due to lower quality,
require increasing processing. In addition, the world is using substantially more oil every day than in any previous era. World production of conventional oil peaked
in December 2005 and U.S. production of oil and natural gas peaked in the early 1970s.11 Expensive non-conventional sources and imports make up the difference.
Beginning in another two years or so, perhaps sooner, the world will begin to experience irreversible 2-3 percent annual declines in oil.12 According to Chevron-Texaco,
33 of the 48 major oil-producing nations are currently in production declines. Russia, Mexico and OPEC account for almost 60 percent of world oil production
and will have a plunge of over three million barrels per day within three years. A significant exporter to the U.S., Mexico’s Cantarell reservoir is dropping 1
percent per month after peaking in late 2004. One result is that Mexico will also cease oil exports to the U.S. and likely become an oil importer within three
years.12,13 Moreover, worldwide discovery peaked in the mid 1980s and despite the best available exploration technology, today only about a single barrel of
oil is discovered for roughly every four or five extracted.14 With many now in decline, the major reservoirs were discovered more than fifty years ago in the
1960s. The North Sea and the North Slopes of Alaska were discovered thirty years ago and today are in significant production declines. The consumers of this oil are
increasing, yet, as stated previously, population levels follow energy.
Extinction
Campbell, 99 – partner with Petroplan, a consultancy that specialises in petroleum forecasts and depletion analysis
(C.J, “The extinction of Hydrocarbon Man?” Times Higher Education Magazine http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storyCode=160650&sectioncode=34)
The oil age is 150 years old and now just about half over. We have consumed about 820 billion barrels of the 1,800 billion readily available to us.
The great social struggles of capitalism, socialism and communism that sought an equitable reward from this abundant energy have run their course, leaving a global
economy seemingly bent on concentrating wealth. It may turn out to be virtual wealth as the fuel that drives it becomes first expensive and then in short supply. We
are now on the cusp , as oil production peaks. Population, too, may peak not long after oil for not wholly unrelated reasons, agriculture being
heavily dependent on petroleum for synthetic nutrients and water supply. What goes up must come down, and in the 21st century we will have to deal
with the downside. It is logical for environmentalists to predict apocalypse. Yet there is much that we could do to ameliorate the transition to a
leaner economy based on renewable energy. These two books in their different ways will help us understand our predicament.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
33/57
2NC MORAL OB.
Need to let some people suffer now – it’s a prerequisite to their ethics
Elliott, 97 – Professor Emeritus of Philosophy @ University of Florida
(Herschel, “A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons,” http://dieoff.org/page121.htm)
Human beings are in a unique and fortunate position among all living things in that they have language, memory, and intelligence.
These abilities allow them to accumulate factual knowledge. And this knowledge, in turn, makes it possible for them to break out the
patterns of behavior normally determined by habit, culture, religion, and genetic endowment. When knowledge of the structure and
limits of the Earth's biosystem is gained and acted on, it can lead people to live as sustaining members of the Earth's biotic community.
People can maintain a limited, stable population; they can minimize their use of physical and biological resources. There is, however,
no assurance that people will allow ecological knowledge to direct their moral behavior rather than let it be controlled by a priori
assumptions or appeals to habit and tradition. Nevertheless the challenging possibility exists: moral behavior can avoid the tragedy of
the commons even while it is directed, secondarily, to the task of steadily improving the quality of human life.
As in Hardin's original essay, the general statement of the tragedy of the commons also demonstrates that ethical behavior requires
holistic or societal control. In the case of many nations, the most effective means for them to learn the need for societal constraint
may be for others to do nothing but stand back and watch. Just as a good parent may let a child fall down and get up and fall again as
it learns to walk, so, too, many nations may only discover the need to reduce their populations and to limit their use of natural
resources by allowing their people to suffer through the task of learning to live within the carrying capacity of their nation's
boundaries.
The means which Hardin recommends, for protecting the commons is deliberate, societal coercion. Preferably it is mutual restraint,
mutually agreed on, and mutually enforced. Furthermore, knowledge of the most effective and humane means of societal coercion is
empirical knowledge. And like all empirical knowledge, it requires constant experimentation, revision, and correction. As such, it can
never be certain; it can never be final. And since final truth concerning matters of morality is impossible, the moral choice, as Hardin
has so aptly emphasized, can never be between perfectly just coercion and none at all for then people will be free to cause the collapse
of the environmental commons and the end of nature's experiment with human kind. Clearly imperfect forms of coercion are
preferable to none at all. They are like mistaken theories in science -- at some future time they can be refuted and corrected or
discarded. Imperfectly just coercive measures can be improved indefinitely. Thus it is important to note that the need for control does
not make any claim about the type of coercion that different societies must practice. The moral challenge is to make the coercion as
painless, as humane, and as unobtrusive as possible as long as it accomplishes the necessary holistic goal: it must prevent the tragedy
of the commons and preserve the dynamic stability of the Earth's system of living things. And after this primary goal is secure, the
secondary moral goal can be addressed -- that of improving the quality of life as people learn to unfold the evolving potential of being
human. There is, however, no assurance that people have the will and the intelligence to live within the necessary limits of nature. To
do so is the difficult but challenging task of ethics.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
34/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: POPULATION INCREASING
1. Direction of population growth is irrelevant – aff increases quality of life and consumption and overshoots the limits of
growth, that’s Ehrlich.
2. And, linear DA – every added person causes ten deaths in a population crunch, that’s Ehrlich.
3. We also control both sides of uniqueness – even if population is increasing, poverty checks the impact
Elliott, 97 – Professor Emeritus of Philosophy @ University of Florida
(Herschel, “A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons,” http://dieoff.org/page121.htm)
Now, for the first time in the world's history, a single species -- man -- has developed the technological and economic means to exploit
the resources of all the Earth's ecosystems at once. Human beings can watch the gradual destruction by simplification of the Earth's
biosystem. Some tell-tale signs of this global process appear as deforestation, desertification, pollution, climate change, and the rapid
extinction of species. Others appear as shortages of land, water, and biological resources. All over the world, scarcity is driving people
away from the countryside and out of the regions and nations that can no longer support them. Some make up the flood of political or
economic refugees. Others migrate to cities where they cause urban sprawl and an intractable scarcity of jobs, sanitation, housing, and
the necessary infrastructure. Even now in the megacities of the world, various forms of natural control are working to reduce the
size of the human population and its excessive environmental demands. They include parental neglect, disease, unemployment,
hopelessness, drug abuse, gratuitous violence, starvation, ethnic conflict, terrorism, and warfare. This kind of empirical evidence
supports the generalization that human beings are now stressing the world's ecosystems.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
35/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: NO CRUNCH
1. Direction of population growth is irrelevant – aff increases quality of life and consumption and overshoots the limits of
growth.
2. This is our argument – poverty checks the impact – that’s Ehrlich, and the aff creates an incentive for fertility by increasing
perceived income.
Embar, 2 – information technology and programmer/analyst, winner of the Pulitzer Center of Crisis Reporting monthly prize in
March 2008 (Ravi, http://www.helium.com/items/871886-overpopulation-why-we-must-act-now) **note: no official date appears on
the publication; helium.com began publishing articles in the year 2002
The overpopulation problem has been festering for many decades and has not been adequately addressed with conviction and courage
by cowardly politicians. In many developing countries, the overpopulation is mainly due to the increase in family size of
economically and socially disadvantaged persons.
Many of these people do not have the financial or the nurturing capacity, not only to bring children into this world but also to assure
them a healthy, happy and hopeful future, but they are however having more and more children.
The effects of this are a strain on the social services, as many of these larger families depend on state welfare to provide them with
services that they should be providing for themselves in an ideal situation.
Making a decision on having and caring for a child is the greatest decision most people will make in their lifetimes. Unfortunately,
with the growing number of children having children, poor families with increasing offspring, unwanted and abused children, it seems
that many people do not put too much long-term thought or appreciate the awesome responsibility of bringing another life into this
world.
3. Yes crunch – psychological factors influence their authors
Duncan, 7 - Ph.D., electrical engineer, Director of the Institute on Energy and Man
(Richard C, “America: A Frog in the Kettle Slowly Coming to a Boil,” Social Contract Journal, Volume 18, Number 1, Fall 2007,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_18_1/tsc_18_1_duncan.shtml)
Reese R. Raybon, a finance and psychology graduate, recently described a highly relevant and very timely theory that—in my
judgment—helps explain the great resistance to Peak Oil and the Olduvai Theory. His words follow.
“People’s reluctance to accept or adopt the warnings of Olduvai Theory is best explained by basic human psychology. People don’t
want to hear bad news and in the case of the Olduvai Theory, bad news has some really bad consequences for the world, as we
currently know it.
When people hear news that’s in conflict with a belief or an existing idea they develop an uncomfortable feeling or a dissonance and
when people have two or more thoughts which are inconsistent with each other they take on a state of cognitive dissonance or clashing
thoughts (Leon Festinger, 1957) and people in this state of mind will be motivated to reduce these uncomfortable thoughts.
In the case of the Olduvai Theory and the negative future it presents, people will reduce their cognitive dissonance by either taking the
warnings to heart and plan for a future of reduced oil availability or by simply ignoring it to a state of blissful ignorance. …
In Adam Smith’s words from The Theory of Moral Sentiments (III.4.6) it may be due to our inability to see ourselves from the
perspective of an indifferent spectator or from the outside: “This self-deceit, this fatal weakness of mankind, is the source of half the
disorders of human life.…
How we manage this gift of oil, the finite energy bank account, known as the World’s Oil Reserves, will determine our future. Now is
the time to wake up to the fact that we need an oil age end-game strategy!” (Raybon, 2007)
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
36/57
UNIQUENESS – SPECIES EXTINCTION
Species extinction is 1,000 times the normal rate – we are witnessing a mass extinction.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
Rates of species extinction, which appear to be accelerating, (UNEP 2002:298) have been described by leading scientists as
“appalling” (WS 1997). On one estimate, one species extinction occurs every 20 minutes (Levin and Levin 2002:6). The background
(“normal”) rate of species extinction, estimated from fossil records, is thought to be about [ONE] 1 bird or mammal species lost every
500-1000 years (UNEP 2002:121). “Estimates of present extinction rates range from 100 to 1,000 times normal, with most estimates
at 1,000. The percent of bird (12), mammal (18), fish (5) and flowering plant (8) species threatened with extinction is consistent with
that estimate. And the rates are certain to rise–and to do so exponentially–as natural habitats continue to dwindle” (Lovejoy 2002:70).
The extinction rate for some organisms may be 1,000 to 10,000-times faster than background rates (Pimentel et al 1999:30).
Ecologists estimate that half of all living bird and mammal species will be gone within 200 or 300 years (Levin and Levin 2002:6).
These exceptional losses qualify the present as an era of “mass extinction” (Levin and Levin 2002:6). As “vast tracts of wilderness”
vanish in the “not-so-distant future,” the “alteration and fragmentation of existing habitats ensures that any future radiation of
mammals, for instance, will not include large forms such as rhinoceroses, apes and big cats....Human activities will likely increase
[primate] rates of extinction....Such a wholesale shift in earth’s biota will impoverish the planet for many millions of years to come”
(Levin and Levin 2002:7-8).
And only sustaining poverty levels solves the impact – that’s Ehrlich.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
37/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
1. Just gives us a brink
2. The illegal immigration surge is permanently OVER – boarder patrol and declining Mexican birth rates.
Michael Barone (Staff Writer) 9/3/2009: New Facts Undercut Old Positions on Immigration.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/09/03/new_facts_undercut_old_positions_on_immigration_98143.html
But there's another reason why Congress and the administration would be unwise to revive the 2006-07 legislation. The facts on the
ground have changed. The surge of illegal immigrants into the United States, which seemed to be unrelenting for most of the last two
decades, seems to be over, at least temporarily, and there's a chance it may never resume.
The facts are in some dispute, as is inevitably the case, since available statistics are subject to error. The Pew Hispanic Center reported
in July that the flow of immigrants from Mexico -- by far the leading source of illegals -- has declined sharply since mid-decade and
that from spring 2008 to spring 2009 only 175,000 Mexicans entered the United States, only about one-quarter as many in 2004-05.
The number of Mexican natives in the U.S. has declined slightly this year. But, Pew concludes, there is no evidence of an increase in
the total returning to Mexico.
The Center for Immigration Studies had a different interpretation in its July report. It tried to distinguish legal and illegal immigrants,
and found no decline in legal immigrants. But it estimated that the number of illegals in the U.S. dropped from 12.5 million in summer
2007 to 10.8 million in spring 2008 -- a decline of 14 percent. It found that the illegal population declined after July 2007, when the
immigration bill died in the Senate, and then fell off more sharply with the financial crisis in fall 2008. It estimated that 1.2 million
illegals returned to Mexico between 2006 and 2009, more than twice as many as in the 2002-05 period.
From this evidence, I draw two conclusions. First, stricter enforcement -- the border fence, more Border Patrol agents, more stringent
employer verification, and state and local laws -- has reduced the number of illegal immigrants. Second, the recession has reduced the
number of both legal and illegal immigrants.
CIS explicitly and Pew implicitly conclude that immigration will rise again once the economy revives. I'm not so sure. At least some
of the stricter enforcement measures will continue. And the reservoir of potential immigrants may be drying up. Birth rates declined
significantly in Mexico and Latin America circa 1990. And as immigration scholars Timothy Hatton and Jeffrey Williamson write,
emigration rates from Mexico and Latin America -- the percentage of the population leaving those countries -- peaked way back in
1985-94.
Moreover, people immigrate not only to make money but to achieve dreams. And one of those dreams has been shattered for many
Latino immigrants. Most housing foreclosures have occurred in four states -- California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida -- and about
one-third of those who have lost their homes are Hispanic. Immigration is stimulated by the reports of success that immigrants send
back home. It may be discouraged by reports of failure.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
38/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: AGRICULTURE SOLVES
AGRICULTURE CAN’T RESOLVE POPULATION PRESSURES.
(A.) CAUSES DEFORESTATION WHICH CRUSHES GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
Most of the degraded agricultural land has been replaced by removing forests. Agriculture accounts for 60% to 80% of deforestation
(Pimentel et al 1997:10). A CIA assessment of long-term demographic trends (which was based on an October 2000 conference of
experts from academia, business, and the intelligence community), noted that “Tropical forests are vanishing at the rate of 250 acres
per minute”(CIA 2001:77). Further, nearly half of the world’s original forest cover has been lost in the last 50 years, and each year
about 16 million hectares of virgin forest are “cut, bulldozed, or burned”(CIA 2001:77). Since about 60% of the world’s population
growth this decade will occur in countries with tropical forests, the report expects this population pressure to produce “accelerating
destruction of forests” (CIA 2001:76). A combination of demand for wood for cooking and heating, a need for more crop land, and demand for wood in
developed countries ensure that “forests will continue to be destroyed at an alarming rate”(CIA 2001:77).
Deforestation is a major threat to biodiversity. It is worth repeating the RAND 2000 projection that current rates of forest clearing would destroy one-quarter
of all species on Earth within the next 50 years.” Tropical rainforests are a particularly significant loss, because they contain anywhere from half to 90% of all terrestrial
species (UNPD2001a:21). Species are also being lost because of pollution, pesticide use, urbanization, and other human activities: “Environmental pressure from the
human population is the prime destructive force on earth and is the primary cause of reduced biodiversity” (Pimentel et al 1999:30).
(B.) RELIES ON FOSSIL FUELS WHICH ARE UNSUSTAINABLE.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
In developed countries, intensive farming techniques require massive amounts of fossil energy for fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and
machinery. In developing countries, fossil energy is used primarily for fertilizers and irrigation (Pimentel et al 1997:11). In 1991,
the US Dept. of Energy projected at (then) current pumping rates the US would exhaust its oil reserves in 15-20 years (Pimentel and
Giampietro 1994:3; Pimentel et al 1997:11). The world oil supply has been projected to last about 50 years at (1994) current
pumping rates (Pimintel et al 1999:7). Oil production is expected by some experts to peak about 2004,21 unless new reserves are
discovered (Pimentel et al 1999:27). This means prices will rise, with serious implications for developing countries which rely
heavily on fossil energy for fertilizer and irrigation (Pimentel et al 1997:12).
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
39/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: AQUACULTURE SOLVES
AQUACULTURE IS UNSUSTAINABLE – WE’RE ON THE BRINK OF COMPLETE FISHERY COLLAPSE.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
The FAO also acknowledges that environmental factors are expected to limit the supply of fish, because by 2000 “three-quarters
of ocean fish stocks were overfished, depleted or exploited up to their maximum sustainable yield”(FAO 2002). However, they
expect aquaculture to continue to grow rapidly (FAO 2002). Aquaculture is also being promoted by the Malaysia-based WorldFish
Center and the International Food Policy Research Institute, which issued a report on declining fish yields in preparation for a
conference (“Fish for All Summit”) in November, 2002 (World Fish Center 2002). 20 Ecologists, however, have questioned the
sustainability of aquaculture (Rees 2002:29-31). Although bland accounts of declining fish yields might suggest a limited period of
conservation can restore “fish stocks,” a major study directed by Dr. Daniel Pauly of the University of British Columbia Fisheries
Center (the Sea Around Us project), concluded that the North Atlantic ocean is heading towards a “fisheries collapse”- in effect,
losing its ability to sustain further catches. Over the past 50 years catches of cod, tuna, haddock, flake and flounder have fallen by
more than half (Pauly 2002). The research reports are available at http://www.saup.fisheries.ubc.ca/publications/reports.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
40/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS SOLVE
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY FLAWED – FOUR REASONS.
1) PREMODERN SOCIETIES DISPROVE, 2) WEALTHY COUNTRIES RELY ON EXPLOITING OTHER COUNTRIES FOR RESOURCES AND EXCESS
POPULATION, 3) OVERPOPULATION BUILDS ON EACH OTHER/CAN’T STOP ITSELF, 4) AID DESTROYS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
BROWN, PhD, 6
Paul, NOTES FROM A DYING PLANET, page 133
Although there was no reason to assume that this was universally applicable, the assumption that improving the quality of life
would stabilize population levels strongly influenced population policies. Unfortunately, four facts ruined that prospect. First,
many “pre-modern” societies were already devastated by overpopulation. Second, the increased quality of life in Europe was
maintained partly by exporting its surplus population to colonies around the world, and exploiting the natives and their
resources. Third, left to itself an overpopulated, underdeveloped country can neither support its existing population nor slow its
growth, so its quality of life can only decline. Fourth, if outside assistance takes the form currently called “free trade” or
“globalization” the country loses the last of its self-sufficiency, its economy collapses and its population continues to explode.
AFRICAN POPULATION GROWTH DISPROVES THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.
HARDIN, Professor @ UC-Santa Barbara, 1
Garrett, Ecologist, The Social Contract, Fall, http://www.thesocialcontract.com/cgi-bin/showarticle.pl?articleID=1026&terms=
Reasoning by analogy, some optimists in the twentieth century have argued for a laissez-faire approach toward population
growth. They postulate a "demographic transition" process that automatically stops population growth before it hurts. Since
European fertility fell as Europeans became richer, it was argued that all we need to do to help today's poor countries is to try to make them rich. The past halfcentury has shown that a laissez-faire approach toward population growth fails. The needy poor greatly outnumber the
charitable rich, and the poor breed faster. Africa's numbers are increasing more than ten times as fast as Europe's.
The argument that greater prosperity produces lower fertility has some support in rich countries, where the industrial-ized, urbanized way of life leads many couples to
prefer a better automobile to another child. In poorly industrialized, rural nations, an increase in income translates into more medicine,
less infant mortality, and a faster rate of population growth. The ancient saying, "The rich get richer and the poor get
children" has more wisdom in it than does the demographic transition theory.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS IRRELEVANT – WE HAVE ALREADY PASSED CARRYING CAPACITY, EVEN IF
WE REACHED ZERO POPULATION GROWTH WE’D STILL NEED COERCIVE POPULATION REDUCTION.
WOOLDRIDGE, teacher and author of Immigration’s Unarmed Invasion: Deadly Consequences, September 16th 2K5
Setting The Stage For America's Disaster - Part 1 of 2, The Official News Paper, http://news.baou.com/main.php?action=recent&rid=20515
Even if we attained zero population growth today, our own population momentum would add 40 million people to the USA
giving us 335 million.The world already manifests itself in diseases such as two million deaths from TB annually worldwide, one
third of the world’s people do not have access to clean drinking water, species extinction tops 2,500 plants and animals in the
USA every decade from human population encroachment on wild life habitat, growing acid rain, global warming, and the poor of
America suffering more and more from legal and illegal immigration and dozens of other consequences—what else is there to
argue about immigration?
POPULATION WILL NOT SLOW DOWN BY ITSELF – NATURE SELECTS FOR FERTILITY.
HARDIN, Professor @ UC-Santa Barbara, 1993
Garrett, Living Within Limits, 160-161
Suppose, following Godwin, that the natural fertility of our species evolves almost all the way to zero . Then what? Initially, fertile
individuals might be but a tiny minority of the whole; but, over time, selection would ensure the dominance of the fertile fraction. If there were even the
slightest genetic basis for fecundity in human beings (as indeed there is in other animals) then fertile human beings would in
times replace the infertile. To postulate a selection for universal sterility (as Godwin’s scheme would require) is to perpetrate an
oxymoron. Nature does not work with oxymorons.
We who are alive now are the descendents of an unbroken line of fertile ancestors. This line extends back millions of years to the first
humanoids—indeed, billions of years to the beginning of sexual life of any kind. Powerful though she is, Nature cannot create a self-sustaining,
totally infertile, sexual species. (Nonsexual, vegetative reproduction is common among plants, of course, but not many people are interested in promoting
that.) The history of population disputes is a long litany of attempts to evade problems rather than solve them. This books began with
a demonstration that population problems cannot be solved by fleeing to the stars. Escaping biology here on earth is equally, impossible.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Poverty is Good
41/57
UNIQUENESS – AT: FERTILIZERS SOLVE
FERTILIZERS CANNOT COUNTER POPULATION PRESSURES – DESTROYS BIODIVERSITY AND DISRUPTS THE
GLOBAL NITROGEN CYCLE ACTUALLY REDUCING SOIL FERTILITY.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
Fertilizer is used to compensate for eroded topsoil. However, field tests have found that beyond a certain limit, the use of
nitrogen fertilizer stresses crop plants and causes yields to decline. Thus, “crop yields can not continue to increase in response
to the increased applications of more fertilizers and pesticides”(Pimentel 2000:421). Further, increasing reliance on fossil energy
inputs.... increases stress on the environment and is unsustainable (Pimentel and Giampietro 1994:11).Heavy use of pesticides and
nitrogen fertilizer is a significant source of water pollution, soil erosion, and loss of biodiversity (Pimentel and Giampietro
1994:12). The 2001 CIA report warns, “with continued population growth, the amount of biologically available (“fixed”)
nitrogen...may double over the next 25 years, increasing the current excess. Over the past 50 years, excessive nitrogen, principally
from fertilizers (some 86%), human sewage, and the burning of fossil fuels began to overwhelm the global nitrogen cycle, with a
range of ill effects from reduced soil fertility to eutrophication in lakes, rivers, and coastal estuaries....”(CIA 2001:79).
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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UNIQUENESS – AT: FREE MARKET SOLVES
MARKET ECONOMIES AND COMPLEX SYSTEMS CREATE DISCONTINUITIES THAT RISK EXTINCTION.
DOBKOWSKI, Prof Relig. Studies @ Hobart & William Smith AND WALLIMANN, Prof Sociology, Economics & Social Policy
@ U. of Applied Sciences, Finland, 2
Michael & Isidore, ed, On The Edge of Scarcity, Syracuse Univ. Press , p. xxvii-xxviii
It seems evident now that there will he a temporal conjunction of four sizable bottlenecks: population, land, energy, and
environmental carrying capacity. All of them are so intricately related that they form a system complexity whose very balance
has never been so delicate vet so important to our survival. Therefore, we must also distinguish between bottlenecks that present
continuous hut stable challenges and the ones that represent discontinuous and unstable challenges. Population growth, for example, is
a challenge with great continuity. However, as we approach the question of energy and land, particularly if environmental
pressures are included, we can increasingly expect challenges characterized by discontinuity. Even though energy resources may
not be depleted, the supply of energy could for technological or political or economic reasons become highly discontinuous.
Agricultural land may increasingly go out of commission in a discontinuous way, be it because of events such as droughts, floods,
erosion, or drastic overuse. As the system reaches an ever greater complexity, and as survival hinges ever more and with small
margins on this complexity, any jolt to the system is bound to make survival more immediately a matter of life and death.
Furthermore, the jolts emitted by the economic system are also of importance, for production factors such as population, land,
energy, as well as many environmental constraints are mediated and coordinated by markets. Markets, however, are also
known to have a great deal of discontinuity owing to the anonymous number of their participants and the unforeseeable
outcome produced by their myriad market interactions. Thus, the capitalist market, the very technique chosen to manage
survival, is itself a threat to survival, as is exemplified by speculation, recessions, and depressions, booms and busts. Market
dynamics themselves upset the delicate balance among land, energy, population, and the environment, and thereby directly
determine survival and death rates.
Additionally, techniques to ensure continuity in a world of random but significant disturbances may break down. Already
insurance companies suspect that a number of weather-related events may have ceased to be sufficientlv random or insignificant or
both to be insured. The private market insurance system may soon prove unable to ensure against certain ecosystem risks. The
instability would thereby increase, leaving politics as the last potential guarantor of continuity and stability, as is already the case with
atomic power plants, where no private insurer is willing to cover the entire risk, nor could such risk be covered. However, how many
big risks, should the event and the scarcity associated with them occur, can the political system handle before solidarity breaks
down, instability increases, conflicts grow, and massive death results?
EVEN ASSUMING EVERY COUNTRY ADOPTED FREE MARKET POLICIES AND THOSE POLICIES SUCCEEDED
IN PROMOTING ECONOMIC GROWTH WE WOULD STILL NEED FIVE ADDITIONAL EARTHS TO MAINTAIN
RESOURCE DEMANDS.
KATES, Professor of Philosophy @ Ithaca College, 4
Carol A., REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION, Environmental Values 13:1 February, http://www.ithaca.edu/hs/philrel/replib.pdf
The second objection is that even if every nation on the planet rapidly adopted “efficient” free market and free trade policies,
and even assuming such policies “worked” to accelerate global economic growth, the result, given current and, certainly, projected
population levels, would be an impossibly large ecological deficit. Humanity’s ecological footprint has been estimated to exceed longterm global carrying capacity as much as 40% (Rees 2002:40).16 Humanity currently appropriates an unsustainable 25-35% of coastal
shelf primary production (Rees 1996:198), and over 50% of the Sun’s energy captured by the entire plant biomass on Earth each year (
Pimentel et al 1999:30). William Rees estimated that if the world population of 5.8 billion (in 1996) lived at unsustainable North
American consumption levels, two additional planet Earths would be required to accommodate the ecological load. With a
population of 10 or 11 billion, 5 additional Earths would be needed simply to maintain the present rate of ecological decline
(Rees 1996:210).
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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UNIQUENESS – AT: SPACE SOLVES
1. DOESN’T SOLVE THE IMPACT –
(A.) TIMEFRAME DIFFERENTIAL – EVEN IF IT WAS POSSIBLE TO COLONIZE SPACE, IT WOULD TAKE
HUNDREDS OF YEARS – WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE DEADLY EFFECTS OF SCARCITY – IMPACT OCCURS
BEFORE WE CAN GET OFF THE ROCK.
(B.) CAN’T GET PEOPLE OFF THE PLANET FAST ENOUGH TO RESOLVE POPULATION PRESSURES.
HARDIN, 1993
GARRETT, LIVING WITHIN LIMITS, Oxford University Press
For interstellar migration to prevent an increase of population on earth, people would have to be exported as fast as the world's
population is increasing. (Worse: if we agree that the world is already overpopulated, people would have to be shipped off faster than
this. But let us take a sunny view of things and ignore the possibility that the earth is already overpopulated.)
2. WE STILL WIN A SIZABLE IMPACT – THE DEATH OF OUR HOME WORLD WOULD BE KIND OF A DRAG –
EVEN IF WE MAKE IT TO SPACE, BILLIONS WOULD STILL DIE ON EARTH – SURVIVAL WOULD BE PRETTY
UNBEARABLE AFTER ALL THAT ANYWAY.
3. SPACE IS IMPOSSIBLE
(A.) NO INHABITABLE PLANETS, IF THERE ARE THEY’RE TO FAR AWAY AND ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IS
A PREREQUISITE TO SPACE TRAVEL.
DALEIDEN, 1999
The American Dream: Can it survive the 21st Century?, Prometheus Books, New York. p64-98,
http://www.mnforsustain.org/pop_issues_policies_2_2_daleiden_j.htm#Space%20Colonization
One final note: some wild-eyed optimists believe that after filling the earth to capacity we will just move to other planets, sort of
like the Europeans who moved to the new world of the Americas. We already know, however, that there are no inhabitable planets
in our own solar system. (Of course we could build some ecopod to house a few dozen or perhaps even a few hundred people on a
barren and inhospitable moon or perhaps Mars, but only at a huge cost.) To find a livable planet, we need to travel to other solar
systems, and there is the rub. As Garrett Hardin explains, the nearest star to the earth is Alpha Centauri which is four light years
away.* Traveling at the present rate of space speeds ―about twenty-five thousand mph― it would take 114,000 years to get to
Alpha Centauri. Even assuming we could boost the speed to twenty-two million mph ―which may or may not be theoretically
possible― it would take 125 years for the trip, i.e., four to five generations. And at the present birth rate, to keep the population of
the earth from increasing further we would have to send off a quarter million people a day! Considering that it costs about $1
billion to build a submarine to house 140 sailors for a year, the cost of just one vehicle to house and support a quarter million
people for 125 years is almost unimaginable. Even with economies of scale, one trillion dollars per spaceship would seem a bargain.
And we would need to build one a day!89 * There is no evidence that Alpha Centauri has any planets ―in fact the odds are
against it. The closest star with planets appears to be over eight light years away, and the likelihood that those planets are inhabitable
is extremely small. Moreover, what if we discover there is already intelligent life on another planet? Does that give us the right to
invade and conquer the indigenous people (assuming we could) so that we can export our surplus population? It never occurs to
science fiction writers that from the perspective of any other planet with an indigenous population, we would be the space aliens.
Perhaps only Native Americans can appreciate this irony. Finally, during those five generations of space travel, the voyagers
would have to limit their population to replacement levels only (i.e., births - deaths = zero). But if we can get to zero population
growth on the space vehicle, why not do it here on earth in the first place, saving all that absurd effort? It should be obvious to
all but the most obtuse that the notion of populating distant solar systems to solve the earth's population problem is preposterous.
Nevertheless, some people will clutch at any solution, no matter how absurd, to avoid taking the necessary actions dictated by
circumstances.
(B.) COSMIC RAYS MAKE SPACE COLONIZATION IMPOSSIBLE AND DESTROY SUPPORT FOR NASA.
NEW SCIENTISTS, SEPTEMBER 20TH 1997
Then there’s the problem of how to predict just how nasty cosmic radiation might be. At the moment, estimates are based on
what is known about the effects of the body of gamma rays and X-rays. But the real risk from cosmic radiation could be
higher or lower by as much as a factor of fifteen says Dicello. And cancer may not be the only side effect of radiation exposure. For
example, practically nothing is known about how the nervous system will withstand a three-year cosmic ray shower-it would
not look good if the crew developed a mysterious dementia when they got back home.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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UNIQUENESS – AT: EMPERICALLY DENIED
PRIOR FALSE PREDICTIONS DON’T DENY OUR DISAD – YOU CONFUSE FREQUENCY WITH PROBABILITY.
POSNER, Former 7TH Circuit Judge and Published expert on shit from Environmental analysis to Anti-Trust Law, 6
Richard, Should We Worry about Overpopulation?, http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2006/10/should_we_worry.html
Concerns about overpopulation are ridiculed by conservatives because of the mistaken predictions by Paul Ehrlich (not to
mention Thomas Malthus!) in his book The Population Bomb and by other anticapitalists since the first Earth Day (1970), and have
spread to liberals because the only way to slow or stop the growth of the U.S. population is by curtailing immigration (e.g., the
"fence"). Although I have been strongly critical of the shoddy arguments of Ehrlich and other doomsters (in my book Public
Intellectuals), I believe that overpopulation is a serious issue and deserves dispassionate analysis. Just because the problem of
overpopulation has been exaggerated in the past doesn’t mean it is not a problem today. The future may not resemble the past.
The belief that the mistakes of Malthus, Ehrlich, and other past prophets of doom show that current concerns with
overpopulation are unfounded is on a par with the belief that we shouldn't worry about terrorism because many fewer Americans
have been killed by terrorists than in automobile accidents. Such arguments confuse frequencies (the past) with probabilities (the
future).
MALTHUS IS MORE RELEVANT THAN EVER – UNIQUE COMBINATION OF MORE AVAILABLE PUBLIC
HEALTH SERVICES AND AGRICULTURE MAKE A MASSIVE POPULATION CRUNCH INEVITABLE.
BYRANT, professor in the Department of Developmental and Cell Biology @ Berkley, 5
Peter J. (P.H.D), “BIODIVERSITY and CONSERVATION”, Hypertext Book, University of California, http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/bio65/lec24/b65lec24.htm
Worries about human population growth are not new. Over 200 years ago (1798) Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the
Principle of Population. In this book he pointed out that the human population tends to grow geometrically, while the resources
available to support it tend to grow arithmetically. Under these conditions the population must inevitably outgrow the supply of food
that is available to fulfill its needs. He postulated that population growth was already outpacing the production of food supplies in
18th-century England. He predicted that population growth would lead to degradation of the land, and eventually massive famine,
disease and war. Malthus presented his theory in response to optimists of his day who thought that mankind's ability to master the
environment was limitless. Improvements in agriculture and the industrial revolution postponed the disaster that Malthus thought was
imminent. But his ideas are even more applicable today.
Especially since 1960, several developments have dramatically reduced infant and child mortality throughout the world: the
use of DDT to eliminate mosquito-borne malaria; childhood immunization programs against cholera, diphtheria and other often-fatal
diseases; and antibiotics. During the same period, the "Green Revolution" greatly boosted food output through the cultivation
of new disease-resistant rice and other food crops, and the use of fertilizers and more effective farming methods. These changes
have contributed to a dramatic increase in human population growth rates.
The Earth's population reached 6 billion in September, 1999 (Updated total). It will increase this decade by another billion, the
fastest population growth in history. It was only 2 billion in 1930, so today's older generation was the first in history to see a tripling of
the Earth's population during their lifetimes! Every second, three people are added to the world; every day a quarter of a million (2
times the population of the city of Irvine) are added. Every year, about 87 million people (about the population of Mexico, or 3x the
population of California, or the combined populations of the Philippines and South Korea) are added to the world. During the next 2.5
years, the equivalent of the U.S. population will be added to the planet. During the coming decade the increased population of one
billion people is the equivalent of adding an extra China to the world's population. A recent joint statement by the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences and the British Royal Society finds that population is growing at a rate that will lead to doubling by 2050.
Obviously the earth cannot continue indefinitely to sustain population growth at the current rate. How many people can it
support?
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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2NC LINK WALL 1/2
1. Maintaining current poverty rates is key to solve the resource crunch and ecological collapse – that’s Ehrlich, prefer our
evidence, he’s a professor of population studies at Stanford, which means he studies statistics every day and has the best access
to real data – he’s also President at the Center for Conservation Biology, means you give us full weight of the environment
impacts.
2. Poverty’s a key check on population growth
Elliott, 97 – Professor Emeritus of Philosophy @ University of Florida
(Herschel, “A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons,” http://dieoff.org/page121.htm)
Now, for the first time in the world's history, a single species -- man -- has developed the technological and economic means to exploit
the resources of all the Earth's ecosystems at once. Human beings can watch the gradual destruction by simplification of the Earth's
biosystem. Some tell-tale signs of this global process appear as deforestation, desertification, pollution, climate change, and the rapid
extinction of species. Others appear as shortages of land, water, and biological resources. All over the world, scarcity is driving people
away from the countryside and out of the regions and nations that can no longer support them. Some make up the flood of political or
economic refugees. Others migrate to cities where they cause urban sprawl and an intractable scarcity of jobs, sanitation, housing, and
the necessary infrastructure. Even now in the megacities of the world, various forms of natural control are working to reduce the
size of the human population and its excessive environmental demands. They include parental neglect, disease, unemployment,
hopelessness, drug abuse, gratuitous violence, starvation, ethnic conflict, terrorism, and warfare. This kind of empirical evidence
supports the generalization that human beings are now stressing the world's ecosystems.
Bolstered by the a priori, human-centered ethical doctrines of the monotheistic religions, everything that directs human behavior -cultural and legal traditions, genetic determinants, the free-market economic system, and the material demands of industrial
production -- all reinforce each other in producing a steady growth in population and consumption. Indeed as people all around the
world go about the business of daily life, they demand more land, fuel, water, timber, and food. It is possible, however, that significant
changes can be made in the complex of causes presently directing human activity which can put an end to the steady growth in
population and to the constant increase in the production and consumption of goods and services. Nevertheless, if appropriate causal
forces cannot be found to maintain human environmental demands in a sustainable equilibrium, then the step-by-step destruction of
the Earth's ecosystems will remain the persisting -- and eventually tragic -- characteristic of human activity.
Ecosystems have their own dynamic structure. Feedback mechanisms have evolved to maintain their stability. For example, one
species may become dominant and take over much of the land and most of the biological resources in some ecosystem. And continued
growth may have no destabilizing effects for quite some time. But as more and more of the system's biological wealth is concentrated
in the bodies and artifacts of an exuberant species, other species evolve the means to utilize the abundant food source. Then as the
newly adapted predators increase in number, they reduce the population of the prolific species. If, however, such controls should fail,
the continued growth of any organism at some point will begin to stress the ecosystem which sustains that organism. Finally the
additional stress of continued growth will make the system collapse, suddenly and apparently without warning. Nature does control
any exuberant species either by drastically reducing its population or by its extinction.
This sequence of biological events is of decisive importance for ethics. It proves that the two opposing theories of ethics which
presently vie for acceptance both lead to tragedy. Both an ethics grounded in a self-centered individualism and an ethics which builds
on the need for a self-sacrificing altruism have the same inherent defects. Both have inbuilt, positive feedback mechanisms which
cause a steady increase in the human exploitation of the Earth's biological resources. All such material demands, however, are
constrained by the limited resource use which the biosystem can sustain. Exceeding this carrying capacity will cause that system to
collapse into a simpler state which is incapable of supporting civilization in its present form and perhaps most of the complex forms of
mammalian life as well. This is the tragedy that awaits mankind, if people do not begin to live as responsible members of the Earth's
system of mutually sustaining life forms.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
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2NC LINK WALL 2/2
3. They cause an increase in fertility
Embar, 2 – information technology and programmer/analyst, winner of the Pulitzer Center of Crisis Reporting monthly prize in
March 2008 (Ravi, http://www.helium.com/items/871886-overpopulation-why-we-must-act-now) **note: no official date appears on
the publication; helium.com began publishing articles in the year 2002
The overpopulation problem has been festering for many decades and has not been adequately addressed with conviction and courage
by cowardly politicians. In many developing countries, the overpopulation is mainly due to the increase in family size of
economically and socially disadvantaged persons.
Many of these people do not have the financial or the nurturing capacity, not only to bring children into this world but also to assure
them a healthy, happy and hopeful future, but they are however having more and more children.
The effects of this are a strain on the social services, as many of these larger families depend on state welfare to provide them with
services that they should be providing for themselves in an ideal situation.
Making a decision on having and caring for a child is the greatest decision most people will make in their lifetimes. Unfortunately,
with the growing number of children having children, poor families with increasing offspring, unwanted and abused children, it seems
that many people do not put too much long-term thought or appreciate the awesome responsibility of bringing another life into this
world.
4. Social services overshoot the limits of growth. The impact is environmental collapse and extinction – voting neg is the only
ethical option
Elliott, 97 – Professor Emeritus of Philosophy @ University of Florida
(Herschel, “A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons,” http://dieoff.org/page121.htm)
Almost everyone recognizes that we must preserve our national heritage -- our parks and wildlife, our farms, our wetlands and forests.
And few dare to doubt that equal justice and universal human rights are essential axioms of morality. Simultaneously people accept
the necessity of protecting the environment and they also assume the moral obligation that every human being has an equal right to
health, education, and employment, regardless of where a person is born or from where that person is fleeing hardship or persecution.
To satisfy these demands it becomes a moral necessity to create more jobs, to build more housing, to expand the infrastructure, to
produce more food and water, and to provide more sanitation, health care, and educational facilities. The only problem is that
success in attaining these worthy goals is possible only in an infinite world where no conflict need ever arise between individual,
societal, and environmental needs.
Only stubborn and muddled thinkers, however, can make believe that the world is infinite. The delusion of its infinity blinds them
to the fact that all human activity must take place within the narrow range of resource use that the Earth can sustain. The ethical
implications of the Earth's finitude are made clear in one of the world's great essays.
The author conducts a simple-seeming thought experiment in which he proves that any ethics is mistaken if it allows a growing
population steadily to increase its exploitation of the ecosystem which supports it. Such an ethics is incoherent because it leads to the
destruction of the biological resources on which survival depends; it lets people act in ways that make all further ethical behavior
impossible. The essay in which this fundamental flaw in modern Western moral thinking is demonstrated is Garrett Hardin's "The
Tragedy of the Commons" (1968).
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
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AT: NO THRESHOLD
The threshold is extinction. We can choose to leave the path at any time, but until then, we resign ourselves to extinction
Clugston, 6/11 – analyst @ Energy Bulletin (Chris, “Humanity’s Choice: A Series of Exits—Not a Fork in the Road,” The Energy
Bulletin, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49200)
It would be more accurate to portray humanity’s recent evolution as a journey on a highway that offers ever-increasing wellbeing
along the way—as our population and material living standards diverge increasingly from sustainable levels—and that culminates in
societal collapse at the end—when Nature can no longer support the ever-increasing natural resource and natural habitat
overexploitation that enable our ever-increasing wellbeing.
Along the highway are a series of exits—say 100 exits for the sake of argument—any of which will return us to a sustainable
existence, but each of which involves increasingly severe lifestyle disruptions—population level and material living standard
reductions—as we proceed on our evolutionary journey.
Humanity’s Evolutionary Journey
Homo sapiens entered the highway approximately 10,000 years ago, when our ancestors began to abandon their essentially sustainable
hunter-gatherer lifestyle paradigm in favor of an “improved” but unsustainable agrarian lifestyle paradigm. During the 10,000 years of
our increasingly agrarian existence, as our population level increased and our average material living standards improved, we passed
approximately the first ten exits.
Had we chosen to exit the highway during our agrarian epoch, we would have experienced relatively minor population level and living
standard reductions as we transitioned back to a sustainable hunter-gatherer existence. We chose instead to remain on the highway and
to continuously increase our population level and improve our material living standards.
During the 18th century AD, the first of today’s “developed” societies embarked upon its industrial revolution—from that point
forward both our population level and our average material living standards exploded at historically unprecedented rates to historically
unprecedented levels, as we blew past exits at an ever increasing rate!
Humanity’s Unenviable Choice
Today we find ourselves passing exits numbered in the 90s, as we rapidly approach the end of the highway. The historically abundant
and cheap natural resources that have enabled our industrialized way of life are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive—a trend
that will continue going forward until available resource supplies become insufficient to support our hopelessly overextended
population level and living standards.
We can still choose to exit the highway, thereby partially mitigating the apocalyptic lifestyle disruptions that await us if we choose
instead to experience societal collapse at the end of the road. But we can no longer exit at Exit 10, or Exit 50, or even Exit 90—we
passed those exits in our unceasing quest to improve the material living standards associated with our ever-increasing population.
The choice facing humanity today: do we get off at Exit 95, or Exit 96, or Exit 97 and mitigate to some extent the lifestyle disruptions
that lie ahead if we remain on the highway until the end; or do we simply drive on for possibly another 5, 15, or 25 years until we
reach the end of the road, and let Nature take its course?
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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U.S. KEY – POPULATION
US key – resource consumption
Bartlett, 5 – Ph.D. and Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado
(Albert A, “Is There a Population Problem?” The Social Contract Journal, Volume 16, Number 1, Fall 2005,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc1601/article_1344.shtml)
1) Where on Earth is the population problem the worst? It is my opinion that the world's worst population problem is right here in the
United States. This is because of our high per capita resource consumption. It has been estimated that a person added to the population
of the United States will have 30 or more times the impact on world resources as will a person added to the population of an
underdeveloped nation. Indeed, resource consumption in North America is roughly the same as resource consumption in the entire rest
of the world.
2) Where should we apply our efforts to have the most beneficial effect in helping to solve the population problem? The answer is,
right here in the U.S.
For many people, the population problem is a problem of "those people," in distant undeveloped countries. In early 1997, many people
successfully lobbied Congress to restore family planning assistance in the U.S. foreign aid programs. This was a great victory, but it
treats "those people" as though they were the big problem. As one member of Congress said,
Unchecked population growth in the Third World means depletion of water resources. It means famine. It means suffering. It pushes
popu-lations to clear rainforests. It pushes populations to go out and graze on land that cannot sustain cattle, and that leads to
expansion of deserts worldwide. We all have a stake in the global environment.(6)
It is so easy to blame the problem on others and to identify what other people should do to solve the problem, while we ignore our
own responsibilities and avoid doing anything to reduce the population problem in the U.S. We need to work to stop population
growth in the U.S.
We’re on the brink – must stop population growth regardless of numbers
Lee, 6 – Staff Writer @ the San Diego Tribune (Mike, “America: Taking It to the Limit?” August 6th, 2006,
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20060806-9999-1n6pop.html)
“It’s really not a scientific question,” said Jim Baird, director of sustainability education at the Izaak Walton League of America, a
national conservation group based in Gaithersburg , Md.
“The number of people the U.S. can ‘hold’ is ultimately a question of balancing quality and quantity,” he said. “It is a choice—or
many choices —based on values rather than a formula. Our numbers impact the land and its resources, but so does the way we choose
to live.”
Doomsayers have long predicted that the world’s use of raw products will outstrip its resources and lead to massive human suffering.
That doctrine was popularized in the late 1960s by Paul Ehrlich, a Stanford University professor famous for his books on the
ecological dangers of the population boom. At the time—the start of the modern environmental movement—such thinking was in
vogue among conservationists and others. “No substantial benefits will result from further growth of the nation’s population, rather...
the gradual stabilization of our population through voluntary means would contribute significantly to the nation’s ability to solve its
problems,” John D. Rockefeller III wrote to President Nixon and Congress in a landmark 1972 report by the Commission on
Population Growth and the American Future. Since then, the nation has grown by roughly 100 million people. However, technological
advances that help clean the air, conserve water and grow more food on less farmland have helped to mitigate or delay predicted
population-induced disasters.
Ehrlich’s recent writings express doubt that the United States or the world is making progress on population challenges. “We are
losing the struggle to create a sustainable society,” he wrote in a 2003 article in the journal Conservation Biology.
No impact to other countries
Bartlett, 5 – Ph.D. and Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado
(Albert A, “Is There a Population Problem?” The Social Contract Journal, Volume 16, Number 1, Fall 2005,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc1601/article_1344.shtml)
2) The negative effects of runaway population growth in an underdeveloped country are generally felt only in that country and in its
immediate neighbors. The negative effects of population growth in the U.S. are felt throughout the entire world, because of our
enormous per capita consumption of resources. Indeed, one of the aims of the many free-trade agreements about which we currently
hear so much, is to open up the world's resources for consumption by consumers in the U.S.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
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U.S. KEY – AT: OTHER COUNTRIES
China and Russia have population checks, we don’t
Erickson, 6 – Minnesota State Director of the Izaak Walton League and Minnesotans for Sustainability
(Dell, “A Sustainable U.S. Population: When?” The Social Contract Journal, Volume 17, Number 1, Fall 2006,
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_17_01/tsc_17_01_erickson.shtml)
By the year 2050, within the lifetime of current school-age children, the U.S. population is projected to nearly double again, reaching
more than 500 million. Those with good genetics born soon could live in a land of 1.3 billion Americans by the end of the current
century (US Census Bureau 2004, update). The U.S. is now the third largest nation and heading pell-mell for today’s population of
China or India . Unlike those two nations, there is no program in place to slow, stop, or reduce the U.S. population to a sustainable
number. This Third World growth rate is the highest rate of any developed country.
All other developed countries cut populations
Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 9 - *Professor of Population Studies and Professor of Biological Sciences @ Stanford and **Senior Research
Associate in the Department of Biological Sciences @ Stanford
(Paul and Anne, “The Population Bomb Revisited,” The Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development (2009) 1(3),
http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Population-Bomb-Revisited-Paul-Ehrlich-20096.pdf)
World-renowned scientist James Lovelock, whose invention of the apparatus that allowed discovery of the threat to the ozone layer
and saved humanity, recently stated: “We have grown in number to the point where our presence is perceptibly disabling the planet
like a disease.”9 When The Population Bomb was written, there were roughly 3.5 billion people in the world. Four decades later there
are 6.7 billion people (Population Reference Bureau 2008), meaning that the world population has nearly doubled since The Bomb
rolled off the presses. Despite this growth, there have been some remark- able advances on the population front. Birthrates have
dropped in most of the world, partly in response to government-sponsored programs in education (especially of women), giving
women job opportunities, making contraceptive information and materials accessible – and to economic factors.
Some of the lowest birthrates are now found in the rich, fully industrialized nations of Europe and in Japan. That’s fortunate in one
respect because it is the high- consuming rich nations that place the greatest pressure on humanity’s staggering life-support systems
(Ehrlich and Holdren 1971, Ehrlich and Ehrlich 2005). The big exception is the United States, which is a center of overconsumption and whose population continues growing because of a relatively high birthrate (average family size about 2.1 children,
compared with 1.4 in Italy and pain and 1.3 in Germany and Japan) and high immigration rate (4 per thousand, with Italy the same,
Spain 7, Germany 0, and Japan 0). The nation has recently been in the strange position of debating immigration policy without ever
discussing population policy.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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U.S. KEY – ENVIRONMENT
1. U.S. overpop accesses our environment scenario
Erickson, 6 – Minnesota State Director of the Izaak Walton League and Minnesotans for Sustainability (Dell, “A Sustainable U.S. Population: When?” The Social
Contract Journal, Volume 17, Number 1, Fall 2006, http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_17_01/tsc_17_01_erickson.shtml)
The energy, environmental, economic, and social concerns now present will be intensified and increasingly intractable as the nation
moves to the right side of the graph. For a nation interested in a sustainable economy and environment, this is the worst possible
scenario. Tightening resources and the decline of eco-systems, loss of wildlife, biodiversity, and natural areas, increasing pollution,
and sprawling cities,5 have already reached serious conditions because of the immigration-driven U.S. population.
Land use and development decisions are being driven by population pressures. Most of the original U.S. wetlands have been drained
and turned into farmland or have been developed and those that remain are under unrelenting pressure. Already rivers and lakes are
overused and groundwater use exceeds recharge by 25 percent, with a critical situation in the southwest states. United States
population growth results in an annual loss of approximately three million acres of natural areas and farmland. Most of the original
U.S. mixed species (old growth) forests have been logged and only small parcels remain—in museum-like fashion. Only miniscule
remnants of native tall grass prairies have not met the fate of the plow or livestock ranching.
It is policy. Change U.S. population policies soon and these frightening projections do not happen.
2. United States overpop destroys wetlands
Lee, 6 – Staff Writer @ the San Diego Tribune (Mike, “America: Taking It to the Limit?” August 6th, 2006,
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20060806-9999-1n6pop.html)
Most academic efforts to study the environmental impact of population growth focus on the global scale. More than 98 percent of the
world’s population growth is occurring in developing countries, Markham said. There are more than 6.5 billion people worldwide.
In contrast, Markham ’s center has zeroed in on the United States as the only industrialized nation whose population is growing
significantly. Countries in Europe , along with Russia and Japan , have shrinking populations because births aren’t keeping pace with
deaths. The governments of several of those nations are trying to reverse the pattern with public outreach campaigns and financial
incentives for couples to reproduce. “America’s relatively high population growth and high rates of resource consumption and
pollution make for a volatile mixture resulting in the largest environmental impact per capita ... in the world,” read a report by
Markham’s center that’s scheduled for release in September. The San Diego Union-Tribune previewed the document. The study,
which gathered existing research from hundreds of sources to highlight population-related trends, makes no policy
recommendations.
Among its findings: • Americans occupy about 20 percent more developed land per capita for housing, schools,
shopping, roads, and other uses than they did 20 years ago. That’s partly because the average number of people per household has
dropped while the average size of homes has swelled. The increasing sprawl tends to boost vehicle use and petroleum consumption. •
About 40 percent of the nation’s rivers and 46 percent of its lakes are too polluted for fishing and swimming. Wetlands, the biological
filters for water pollution, are shrinking by 100,000 acres a year, mainly because of development. • Roughly 6,700 species in the
country are at risk of extinction, most often because of habitat loss. • Half of the continental United States no longer supports native
vegetation, largely because people have altered the terrain significantly. More than half the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of
the coast, Markham ’s report stated. That density can damage seaside ecosystems such as wetlands, the report said, and continuing
coastal development is expected to increase the pressure.
3. Extinction
RCW, 96 (Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, with Dr David Stone, funded by the World Wide Fund for Nature, Ramsar Convention,
October 1996, http://www.ramsar.org/about/about_biodiversity.htm)
Wetlands - including (inter alia) rivers, lakes, marshes, estuaries, lagoons, mangroves, seagrass beds, and peatlands - are among the most precious
natural resources on Earth. These highly varied ecosystems are natural areas where water accumulates for at least part of the year. Driven by the
hydrological cycle, water is continuously being recycled through the land, sea and atmosphere in a process which ensures the
maintenance of ecological functions. Wetlands support high levels of biological diversity: they are, after tropical rainforests, amongst the richest
ecosystems on this planet, providing essential life support for much of humanity, as well as for other species. Coastal wetlands, which may include
estuaries, seagrass beds and mangroves, are among the most productive, while coral reefs contain some of the highest known levels of biodiversity (nearly one-third of
all known fish species live on coral reefs). Other wetlands also offer sanctuary to a wide variety of plants, invertebrates, fishes, amphibians,
reptiles and mammals, as well as to millions of both migratory and sedentary waterbirds. Wetlands are not only sites of exceptional biodiversity,
they are also of enormous social and economic value, in both traditional and contemporary societies. Since ancient times, people have lived along water
courses, benefiting from the wide range of goods and services available from wetlands. The development of many of the great civilisations was largely based on their
access to, and management of, wetland resources. Wetlands are an integral part of the hydrological cycle, playing a key role in the provision and
maintenance of water quality and quantity as the basis of all life on earth. They are often interconnected with other wetlands, and they frequently constitute rich
and diverse transition zones between aquatic ecosystems and terrestrial ecosystems such as forests and grasslands.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
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AT: DEMOCRACIES SOLVE THE ENVIRONMENT
No link between democracy and environmental benefit – their authors draw the assumption without prior analytical support
Humphrey, 2 – School of Politics @ University of Nottingham
(Mathew, “Ecology, Democracy, and Autonomy: a Problem of Wishful Thinking,”
http://www.essex.ac.uk/ECPR/events/jointsessions/paperarchive/turin/ws10/Humphrey.pdf)
I will argue in this paper that the positing of a necessary relationship between green politics and democracy is mistaken, and
constitutes an example of wishful thinking on the part of ecological political theorists. By his I mean that an understandable desire to
pursue two political goods simultaneously has resulted in an attempt to forge a noncontingent link between these two goods when such
a link is neither necessary nor plausible. The research question is ‘how can I forge a non-contingent link between ecology and
democracy’ rather than ‘how is the relationship between ecology and democracy best understood’ and in that sense constitutes an
example of (attempted) wish fulfillment, placing the cart of substantive outcome before the horse of analytical enquiry. In the process
certain political concepts are made to lie on a procrustean bed where they are stretched or truncated in order that they will support an
‘appropriate’ answer. In relation to eco-democracy, this fate has particularly befallen the concepts of autonomy, communication, and
rights. In order that they can be used to bolster an argument for anon-contingent relationship between ecology and democracy, these
concepts have to be stretched and decontested in new ways. This is not in itself necessarily problematic, but it can be when, as a result,
concepts are denuded of the very elements that make them morally interesting. The problem then is that the resulting argument stands
as enervated as the nature of the concepts used to support it – i.e. the resulting argument lacks moral force. This paper will focus on
the concept of autonomy, with later work looking at communication and rights to basic liberties.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
52/57
AT: TECH SOLVES 1/2
1. Tech doesn’t solve – star this card!
Homer-Dixon, 1 – Assistant Professor at University College, University of Toronto, and Coordinator of the College's Peace and
Conflict Studies Program (Thomas F, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Fall 2001, p. 76-116)
Historically, cornucopians have been right to criticize the idea that resource scarcity places fixed limits on human activity. Time and time again, human beings
have circumvented scarcities, and neo-Malthusians have often been justly accused of "crying wolf." But in assuming that this
experience pertains to the future, cornucopians overlook seven factors. First, whereas serious scarcities of critical resources in the
past usually appeared singly, now we face multiple scarcities that exhibit powerful interactive, feedback, and threshold effects. An
agricultural region may, for example, be simultaneously affected by degraded water and soil, greenhouse-induced precipitation
changes, and increased ultraviolet radiation. This makes the future highly uncertain for policymakers and economic actors;
tomorrow will be full of extreme events and surprises. Furthermore, as numerous resources become scarce simultaneously, it will be
harder to identify substitution possibilities that produce the same end-use services at costs that prevailed when scarcity was less
severe. Second, in the past the scarcity of a given resource usually increased slowly, allowing time for social, economic, and
technological adjustment. But human populations are much larger and activities of individuals are, on a global average, much more
resource-intensive than before. This means that debilitating scarcities often develop much more quickly: whole countries may be deforested
in a few decades; most of a region's topsoil can disappear in a generation; and critical ozone depletion may occur in as little as twenty years. Third, today's consumption has far greater momentum than in the past, because of the size of the consuming population, the sheer quantity of material
consumed by this population, and the density of its interwoven fabric of consumption activities. The countless individual and corporate economic
actors making up human society are heavily committed to certain patterns of resource use; and the ability of our markets to adapt may be sharply
constrained by these entrenched interests. These first three factors may soon combine to produce a daunting syn drome of environmentally induced
scarcity: humankind will face multiple resource shortages that are interacting and unpredictable, that grow to crisis proportions rapidly, and that will be hard to address
because of powerful commitments to certain consumption patterns. The fourth reason that cornucopian arguments may not apply in the future is that
the free-market price mechanism is a bad gauge of scarcity, especially for resources held in common, such as a benign climate and productive
many such resources seemed endlessly abundant; now they are being degraded and depleted, and we are learning that
their increased scarcity often has tremendous bearing on a society's well-being. Yet this scarcity is at best reflected only indirectly
in market prices. In addition, people often cannot participate in market transactions in which they have an interest, either because they lack the resources or
seas. In the past,
because they are distant from the transaction process in time or space; in these cases the true scarcity of the resource is not reflected by its price. The fifth reason is an
extension of a point made earlier: market-driven adaptation to resource scarcity is most likely to succeed in wealthy societies, where abundant reserves of
capital, knowledge, and talent help economic actors invent new technologies, identify conservation possibilities, and make the transition to new production and
consumption patterns. Yet many of the societies facing the most serious environmental problems in the coming decades will be poor;
even if they have efficient markets, lack of capital and know-how will hinder their response to these problems. Sixth, cornucopians have an anachronistic faith in
humankind's ability to unravel and manage the myriad processes of nature. There is no a priori reason to expect that human scientific and
technical ingenuity can always surmount all types of scarcity. Human beings may not have the mental capacity to understand
adequately the complexities of environmental-social systems. Or it may simply be impossible, given the physical, biological, and social laws governing
these systems, to reduce all scarcity or repair all environmental damage. Moreover, the chaotic nature of these systems may keep us from fully
anticipating the consequences of various adaptation and intervention strategies.76 Perhaps most important, scientific and technical
knowledge must be built incrementally—layer upon layer—and its diffusion to the broader society often takes decades. Any
technical solutions to environmental scarcity may arrive too late to prevent catastrophe. Seventh and finally, future environmental
problems, rather than inspiring the wave of ingenuity predicted by cornucopians, may instead reduce the supply of ingenuity
available in a society. The success of market mechanisms depends on an intricate and stable system of institutions, social relations, and shared
understandings (the ideational factors in Figure 1). Cornucopians often overlook the role of social ingenuity in producing the complex legal and
economic climate in which technical ingenuity can flourish. Policymakers must be clever "social engineers" to design and implement
effective market mechanisms. 77 Unfortunately, however, the syndrome of multiple, interacting, unpredictable, and rapidly changing
environmental problems will increase the complexity and pressure of the policymaking setting. It will also generate increased
"social friction" as elites and interest groups struggle to protect their prerogatives. The ability of policymakers to be good social
engineers is likely to go down, not up, as these stresses increase.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
53/57
AT: TECH SOLVES 2/2
2. Innovation already peaked – it’s rate will decline even as population increases
Adler, 5 – science writer and author @ New Scientist
(Robert, “Entering a dark age of innovation, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7616)
But according to a new analysis, this view couldn't be more wrong: far from being in technological nirvana, we are fast approaching
a new dark age. That, at least, is the conclusion of Jonathan Huebner, a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center
in China Lake, California. He says the rate of technological innovation reached a peak a century ago and has been declining ever
since. And like the lookout on the Titanic who spotted the fateful iceberg, Huebner sees the end of innovation looming dead ahead.
His study will be published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. It's an unfashionable view. Most futurologists say
technology is developing at exponential rates. Moore's law, for example, foresaw chip densities (for which read speed and memory
capacity) doubling every 18 months. And the chip makers have lived up to its predictions. Building on this, the less well-known
Kurzweil's law says that these faster, smarter chips are leading to even faster growth in the power of computers. Developments in
genome sequencing and nanoscale machinery are racing ahead too, and internet connectivity and telecommunications bandwith are
growing even faster than computer power, catalysing still further waves of innovation. But Huebner is confident of his facts. He has
long been struck by the fact that promised advances were not appearing as quickly as predicted. "I wondered if there was a reason for
this," he says. "Perhaps there is a limit to what technology can achieve." In an effort to find out, he plotted major innovations and
scientific advances over time compared to world population, using the 7200 key innovations listed in a recently published book, The
History of Science and Technology (Houghton Mifflin, 2004). The results surprised him. Rather than growing exponentially, or even
keeping pace with population growth, they peaked in 1873 and have been declining ever since (see Graphs). Next, he examined the
number of patents granted in the US from 1790 to the present. When he plotted the number of US patents granted per decade divided
by the country's population, he found the graph peaked in 1915. The period between 1873 and 1915 was certainly an innovative one.
For instance, it included the major patent-producing years of America's greatest inventor, Thomas Edison (1847-1931). Edison
patented more than 1000 inventions, including the incandescent bulb, electricity generation and distribution grids, movie cameras and
the phonograph. Medieval future Huebner draws some stark lessons from his analysis. The global rate of innovation today, which is
running at seven "important technological developments" per billion people per year, matches the rate in 1600. Despite far higher
standards of education and massive R&D funding "it is more difficult now for people to develop new technology", Huebner says.
Extrapolating Huebner's global innovation curve just two decades into the future, the innovation rate plummets to medieval levels.
"We are approaching the 'dark ages point', when the rate of innovation is the same as it was during the Dark Ages," Huebner says.
"We'll reach that in 2024."
3. Tech decreases long-term carrying capacity – it’s only a temporary offset on population
Heinberg, 4 – Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, faculty @ New College of California (Richard, “Book Excerpt:
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World,” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/2291)
Our real problem is that we are trapped in a perpetual growth machine. As long as modern societies need economic growth in order
to stave off collapse, we will continue to require ever more resources on a yearly basis from our already overtaxed earthly
environment. But the Earth has limited resources; even renewable like resources like trees and rainfall are replenished only at a certain
rate. The energy conundrum is thus intimately tied to the fact that we anticipate perpetual growth within a finite system.
Our predicament is not entirely reducible to the fact that we are now starting to run out of the cheap energy sources on which we have
become dependent. The predicament is broader and deeper. The crisis we face is essentially a particularly nasty instance of the
universal ecological dilemma of population pressure, resource depletion, and habitat destruction.
We have, at least temporarily, increased the human carrying capacity of our environment by hundreds of percent. But avoiding
population pressure has predictably resulted in resource depletion and habitat disruption. While short-term carrying capacity has
doubled, redoubled, and doubled yet again, it appears that we are in fact degrading the long-term carrying capacity of our
environment to a level far below its status at the time we began the exercise.
Every time we humans have found a way to harvest a dramatically increased amount of food or fuel form the environment, we have
been presented with a quantity of energy that is, if not entirely free, at least cheap and abundant relative to what we had previously.
Each time, we have responded by increasing our population, and correspondingly, the load on the environmental systems that sustain
us.
The same pattern plays out with other species whenever they discover a significant temporary food subsidy. The behaviour has been
observed so many times, in so many species and human societies, that it really has to be considered a standard response.
If we refuse to power down, then nothing will help. After a while we will simply have no choice: we will compete for what is left
(whether for oil, natural gas, water, or phosphates) or we will die. Plan Snooze simply leads us back to Plan War.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
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AT: EFFICIENCY SOLVES
Efficiency only solves in the short-term
Cairns, 4 - Distinguished Professor of Environmental Biology Emeritus, Department of Biology and Director Emeritus, University
Center for Environmental and Hazardous Materials Studies @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (John Cairns Jr,
“Eco-Ethics and Sustainability Ethics,” Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics,
http://ottokinne.de/esepbooks/EB2Pt2.pdf#page=66)
An era of dwindling oil energy supplies, resource wars, economic collapse, and fragmentation of globalization is shocking. The
global human population is expected to double in 50 years, and the population of the largest energy consumer, the United States, is
expected to double in 70 years. All societal activities require energy, so a combination of conservation plus development of sustainable energy sources is essential. The societal consequences of lower energy availability could be devastating—food shortages,
reduced and more expensive transportation, and less heating, cool- ing, and lighting. Energy efficiency should help on a short-term
basis, but improving efficiency yields ever diminishing returns (i.e. vigorous and perpetual growth). Efficiency will not prevent longterm shortages. Unless alternative sustainable energy sources are developed, future resource wars are quite likely, which will further
reduce energy available for civilian use.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
55/57
AT: POPULATION GROWS LOGISTICALLY
Population grows exponentially
Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 91 – Professor of Population Studies and Professor of Psychological Studies and Professor of Biological
Sciences at Stanford University – Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and the Center for Conservation of Biology at
Stanford University – 1991 (Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, “The Population Explosion”, p. 16)
The last decade or two has seen a slight slackening in the human population growth rate-a slackening that has been prematurely
heralded as an "end to the population explosion." The slowdown has been only from a peak annual growth rate of perhaps 2.1 percent
in the early 1960s to about 1.8 percent in 1990. To put this change in perspective, the population's doubling time has been extended
from thirty-three years to thirty-nine. Indeed, the world population did double in the thirty-seven years from 1950 to 1987. But even if
birthrates continue to fall, the world population will continue to expand (assuming that death rates don't rise), although at a slowly
slackening rate, for about another century. Demographers think that growth will not end before the population has reached 10 billion
or more. So, even though birthrates have declined somewhat, Homo sapiens is a long way from ending its population explosion or
avoiding its consequences. In fact, the biggest jump, from 5 to 10 billion in well under a century, is still ahead. But this does not mean
that growth couldn't be ended sooner, with a much smaller population size, if we—all of the world's nations—made up our minds to
do it. The trouble is, many of the world's leaders and perhaps most of the world's people still don't believe that there are compelling
reasons to do so. They are even less aware that if humanity fails to act, nature may end the population explosion for us-in very
unpleasant ways-well before 10 billion is reached.
Population is growing exponentially now
Tobias, 98 – ecologist – 1998 (Michael Tobias, “World War III: Population and Biosphere at the End of the Millennium”, p 229- 230)
It is estimated that every second more than twenty-eight people are born and ten die; that every hour nearly eleven thousand newborns
cry out. Each day more than one million human conceptions are believed to come about, accompanied by some 150 thousand
abortions. Among those newborns, every day thirty-five thousand will die by starvation, twenty-six thousand of them children.
Meanwhile, every twenty-four hours the pace of war against the planet increases, sometimes in major affronts, other times
imperceptibly, at least by our limited perceptual standards. That war includes the loss of fifty-seven million tons of topsoil and eighty
square miles of tropical forest and the creation of seventy square miles of virtually lifeless desert every day. At current birth and death
rates, the world is adding a Los Angeles every three weeks. If average human growth rates were to continue at their present course
(the so-called "constant fertility variant" or rate of natural increase) the world's population would reach at least ten billion by the year
2030, twenty billion by 2070, forty billion by 21 10, and eighty billion by the year 2150. Most social scientists believe the figure will
be, at worst, between eleven and twelve billion. But some have not ruled out a population between fifteen and twenty billion.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
56/57
AT: EHRLICH INDICT
THE EHRLICH'S MESSAGE ABOUT WORLD POPULATION GROWTH IS STILL VIABLE
Kim Renee Callesen, POPULATION BOMB BY PAUL EHRLICH, June 10, 1997, p. http://www.tamucc.edu/whatley/padm5370/readO3e.htm
Although this article was written in 1971, it brought out many concerns which are . still viable today. The author, Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich,
gives us a glimpse of how our world population has exploded over the past 8,000 years. He discusses the doubling time necessary for
the world population and how this will keep increasing unless something is done about it.. He then continues on by discussing the
potential world population 900 years from now if the population growth continued at it's present rate. The population would be
6,000,000,000,000,000. Sixty million billion people. According to British physicist, J. H. Fremlin, as stated in Elrlichs' article, we
would need a housing project with 2,000 continuous stories covering all the surface of the world including land and sea. Fremlin states
that the top 1,000 stories would be just for running the entire place. About half of the bottom 1,000 floors would contain all the wiring,
electrical and so on. The remaining floors would be for the population.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Poverty is Good
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AT: OPOP GOOD
Population growth good arguments are flawed
Grant, Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Environment and Population, 92
(Lindsey, The Cornucopian Fallacies, Carrying Capacity Network, http://www.dieoff.org/page45.htm)
For the employer seeking assurance of cheap labor or the businessman hoping for the larger market, it is comforting to be told that
more immigration and population growth are good things. The idealist, eager to help hungry fellow humans and fearful that pleas for
lower fertility are a cover for racism, is just as likely to be beguiled by the message, unless he or she has come to realize that laudable
purposes sometimes conflict with each other. One could hardly object to having a couple of cornucopians urging people to be of good
cheer and stout heart, were it not for the danger that may convince some citizens and policy makers not to worry about some pressing
problems that urgently need attention. The cornucopians' argumentation, however, is seriously flawed as a tool for identifying the real
and important present trends. There is an asymmetry in the nature of the arguments of the environmentalists and the cornucopians. The
environmentalist—the proponent of corrective action—is (or should be) Simply warning of consequences if trends or problems are
ignored; he or she does not need to predict. The cornucopian, on the other hand, must predict to make his or her case. He must argue
that problems will be solved and good things will happen if we let nature take its course. Since nobody has yet been able to predict the
future, cornucopians are asking their listeners to take a lot on faith. They say, in effect, "Believe as I do, and you will feel better."
Simon says explicitly that his conversion to his present viewpoint improved his state of mind. The cornucopians have made
assumptions and chosen methodologies that simply ignore or dismiss the most critical issues that have led the environmentalists to
their concerns: The cornucopians pay little attention to causation and they project past economic trends mechanically. They casually
dismiss the evidence that doesn't "fit."They employ a static analysis that makes no provision for feedback from one sector to another.
They understate the implications of geometric growth. They base their predictions on an extraordinary faith in uninterrupted
technological progress.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program – Bob Wells