HEATHROW THIRD RUNWAY CONSULTATION: MINERALS ISSUES 1 Content of the consultation document 1.1 The presence of minerals in the proposed airport extension area is referred to in four places in the consultation document: 1.2 In Annex B (Impact Assessment) in paragraph 2.33 on page 142, in the discussion of Option 1, the section headed ‘Landscape’ notes that “the land within the extended boundary includes 80ha of sand and gravel deposits”. In the same Annex, on pages 153 and 160, the same point is made (by means of a cross-reference) in the equivalent sections on Option 2 (paragraph 2.71) and Option 3 (paragraph 2.92). Still in Annex B, in the section ‘Sustainable development assessment’ in the sub-section ‘Community Effects Landscape/Townscape/Housing’, paragraph 5.21 states that “Using the indicative plans from BAA we have estimated that the landscape/townscape impacts of the additional runway at Heathrow may lead to the following adverse impacts … the land within the extended boundary comprises 80ha sand and gravel deposits [sic]”. Although the above extracts are included in sections that purport to be “assessments”, no assessment is actually made in the consultation document of the significance (if any) of the presence of a claimed 80ha of sand and gravel deposits within the Heathrow Extension Area. Such an assessment is therefore made in the following paragraphs. 2 Area of sand and gravel deposits within the area of the proposed third runway 2.1 We calculate that the area of sand and gravel deposits within the area of the proposed third runway is about 108.5ha rather than the claimed 80ha. Using the site reference numbers and estimated yields from the Council’s Minerals Background Report [MBR], this total area is made up as follows: Site ref H9 Total site Area Total Est yield area within estimated in (hectares) Heathrow yield Heathrow 30 Extension Extension Area (ha) Area 30 1.8 mt 1.8 mt Notes 16ha of site (est yield 0.75mt) is identified as a proposed Preferred Area in emerging LDF H10 6.7 6.7 0.3 mt 0.3 mt H12 40 40 2.4 mt 2.4 mt Not proposed as a Preferred Area 37ha of site (est yield 2.2mt) is identified as a proposed Preferred Area in emerging LDF H13 5.8 5.8 0.3 mt 0.3 mt H14 30 26 1.8 mt 1.7 mt Not proposed as a Preferred Area 29ha of site (est yield 1.8mt) - of which 26ha (1.7mt) is within the Heathrow Extension Area - is identified as a proposed Preferred Area in emerging LDF TOTAL 112.5 108.5 6.6 mt 6.5mt A total of 79ha within the proposed airport extension Area (est yield 4.65mt) is identified as proposed PAs in the emerging LDF. 2.2 The exact areas in this table would need to be verified, but it seems clear that the consultation paper’s figure of 80ha of deposits within the Heathrow Extension Area is a significant underestimate. The yield figures are acknowledged to be estimates (see MBR paragraph 8.3.1). 2.3 As the details of the proposed Preferred Areas are in the public domain (through earlier LDF consultations), they may be the source of the consultation paper’s figure of 80ha of sand and gravel deposits within the proposed third runway area. But as indicated, the proposed Preferred Areas are not the only remaining deposits within that area. 3 Deposits in the Heathrow Extension Area in relation to the proposed Preferred Areas 3.1 The three sites identified as Preferred Areas above (parts of H9, H12 and H14) are the only sites that are proposed as Preferred Areas in the current iteration of the LDF. They have emerged from a rigorous process of site assessment, as described in the MBR. Their combined area (including land outside the proposed third runway area) is 82ha, with an estimated combined yield of 4.75mt. 3.2 The Preferred Areas within H9 and H12 are wholly inside the proposed third runway area, as is the great majority of H14. In total, 96.3% of the area of the proposed Preferred Areas lies within the proposed third runway area, contributing 97.9% of the Preferred Areas’ estimated yield. 4 Deposits in the area of the proposed third runway in relation to all sand and gravel deposits in Hillingdon 4.1 The studies reported in the MBR identified a total of 278ha of remaining sand and gravel resources within the whole of Hillingdon, with an estimated total yield of 15.33mt (MBR Table 8.1). Of these amounts, 114.4ha, yielding 5.9mt, were considered to be unsuitable for working at any time, barring some unforeseen major change of circumstance, such as a willingness to allow extraction from large areas of public open space (MBR Table 2 and paragraph 8.5.5). A further 24.6ha (est yield 1.26mt) was identified, on an initial assessment, as ‘not favoured’ for extraction because of some significant reservations, as described in MBR Annex 8.1. This left 139ha of deposits, with an estimated yield of 8.17ha, as being ‘possible’ locations for future extraction, on this initial assessment. 4.2 Of the two sites within the proposed third runway area that have not been selected as Preferred Areas for the LDF, Site H10 was assessed as a ‘possible’ site, but Site H13 was regarded as ‘unsuitable’ because of the conflict with existing community/recreational land uses. 4.3 In total, 102.7ha of the ‘possible’ sites, with an estimated combined yield of 6.2mt, lie within the proposed third runway area (i.e. the figures of 108.5ha and 6.5mt from the above table, minus the area and yield of site H13). This amounts to 73.9% of the total area, and 75.9% of the estimated yield, of all the ‘possible’ sites in Hillingdon; or 62.8% of the area, and 65.7% of the estimated yield, of the ‘possible’ and ‘not favoured’ sites combined. This leaves a total of 36.3ha (estimated yield just under 2mt) of ‘possible’ reserves outside the proposed third runway area or 60.9ha (estimated yield 3.23mt) in the ‘possible’ plus ‘not favoured’ sites combined. 4.4 It is stressed that the above are the results of an initial assessment. It is highly probable that it will have correctly identified the resources whose extraction would be subject to strong reservations, but the resultant ‘possible’ areas need more detailed consideration before they can be regarded as ‘realistically workable’, in whole or in part. The results of that further assessment are in the following section of this report. 5 Deposits in the Heathrow Extension Area in relation to realistic future extraction prospects 5.1 Table 8.6 of the MBR analysed the ‘possible’ sites in more detail, as a step in the process of identifying the proposed Preferred Areas. The following table summarises its findings. Sites with an asterisk are wholly or (in the case of H14) partly within the proposed third runway area. Site General Area Est location (ha) yield Finding (mt) H1 S Harefield 1.6 0.1 Potentially harmful to adjacent Conservation Area, H2 S Harefield 3.0 0.15 but may be workable if sensitively designed H5 Cowley 3.9 0.2 No suitable access. Unlikely to be workable. H9* Harm’sworth 30 1.8 Western half unlikely to be suitable for working impact on cultural heritage interests. Eastern half acceptable for mineral working (and proposed as a Preferred Area) H10* Harm’sworth 6.7 0.3 Too small to justify working on its own, but might be workable in conjunction with other nearby sites (e.g. H9) - but to do so would displace an existing business. H11 Harm’sworth 7.4 0.4 As H10, with added reservation relating to impact of mineral working on nearby sensitive computer centre. Unlikely to be suitable for working. H12* Harm’sworth 40 2.4 Suitable for extraction (and proposed as a Preferred Area), apart from small area in NW affected by cultural heritage constraints. H14* Sipson 29 1.8 Suitable for extraction (and proposed as a Preferred Area). H17 Longford 3.9 0.25 Too small to justify working on its own. Potential for working as an extension to H18, but possible nature conservation issues. H18 Bedfont 13.5 0.77 Possible potential for working in the longer term, but not favoured at this time because outside the established A4/M4 area of mineral working. 5.2 This assessment indicates that, apart from the proposed Preferred Areas, there is only one site - H18 - where mineral extraction may be acceptable in future on its own merits. Three other sites - H1, H2 and H17 - are not considered at this stage to be completely unsuitable for working, but significant reservations have been identified at all three which may, in practice, preclude extraction at any time. A fourth site H10 - could only be worked (if at all) in conjunction with other nearby sites, all of which are within the proposed third runway area, as is H10 itself. 5.3 Therefore, outside the proposed third runway area there is an estimated 0.77mt of remaining mineral reserves - all at a single site that are definitely considered to have longer-term potential for extraction, and a total of 1.27mt at this site together with the three others that are not immediately regarded as unsuitable for future working. 5.4 These figures compare with the 4.75mt of reserves within the identified Preferred Areas. If sites within the proposed third runway area were to be ruled out from identification as Preferred Areas, the amount of ‘acceptable’ mineral resources elsewhere in the Borough would not come anywhere near to matching the quantity of reserves that are proposed to be identified as Preferred Areas in the LDF. 6 The significance for Hillingdon of the size of remaining workable reserves 6.1 The size of the total (estimated) reserves within the proposed Preferred Areas was not chosen randomly. Rather, it derives directly from national and London-wide guidance. 6.2 Local authorities with sand and gravel deposits are expected to make a contribution to meeting society’s needs for these minerals. National guidelines setting out the levels of aggregates provision expected in each region (including London) are issued by central government, and are then included (following appropriate testing) in regional spatial strategies (or in London’s case, the spatial development strategy - i.e. The London Plan). These regional documents also subdivide the expected levels of provision down to sub-regional level. Outside London, this breakdown or ‘apportionment’ is usually taken to the level of counties and unitary authorities. Within London, because of the pattern of distribution of sand and gravel within the Boroughs, the apportionment divides the London-wide figure into separate figures for East London and for West London. 6.3 In The London Plan (incorporating the Early Alterations adopted in 2006), London’s agreed level of provision for sand and gravel is set at 1.0mt/year, and this is apportioned evenly between West and East London. In West London the main minerals-bearing Boroughs are Hillingdon and Hounslow, and it is therefore these Boroughs that are looked to provide the bulk of the West London provision of 0.5mt/year. 6.4 In the emerging LDF, Hillingdon has indicated a preparedness to seek to account for 50% of the required level of provision in West London that is, a figure of 250,000 tonnes per year. Taking account of the amount of sand and gravel in Hillingdon for which planning permission already exists, the MBR calculates (paragraph 4.4.4) that an additional 4 million tonnes of reserves need to be identified in the Borough if this level of provision is to be maintained until 2023. 6.5 To allow for a degree of flexibility, and for possible overestimation of the yield from individual sites, mineral planning documents generally look to identify sites containing somewhat more than the minimum amount of mineral needed to maintain the required level of provision. In Hillingdon’s case, the three potential Preferred Areas identified in the MBR are estimated to contain 18.75% more than the minimum ‘requirement’ - i.e. 4.75mt rather than 4mt. This is considered by the Borough to provide an acceptable degree of flexibility in the Plan. 6.6 If the sites within the proposed third runway area were no longer available for extraction, however, it is clear that the remaining realistically available reserves in the Borough could not between them provide for the extraction of 4mt over the period to 2023, let alone any higher figure designed to allow flexibility. The 0.77mt of material in the one site considered to have definite potential represents under a fifth (19.25%) of the 4mt ‘requirement’, while the 1.27mt in this site and the three others not immediately regarded as unsuitable represents under a third (31.75%) of that figure. 6.7 Put another way, the 0.77mt at Site H18 represents provision equivalent to about 3 years’ worth at the level accepted by Hillingdon (250,000tpa), and the 1.27mt at sites H1, H2, H17 and H18 together represents provision for just over five years. Permitted reserves in the Borough at the start of 2004 were estimated at 1mt; at the 250,000tpa rate (MBR paragraph 4.4.4), these reserves would be exhausted by the end of 2007. 6.8 Therefore, if reserves in the proposed third runway area were to be unavailable, the remaining acceptable or ‘possibly acceptable’ mineral resources in the whole of Hillingdon would be the finite limit of potentially workable mineral resources in the Borough without breaching major planning constraints; and they would only be sufficient to last for 3-5 years. This compares with a requirement in national policy (MPS1) that local authorities should aim to maintain a stock of permitted reserves which, at any one time, is the equivalent of seven years’ worth of production at the relevant ‘apportionment rate’. 6.9 If Hillingdon were required to maintain an annual level of provision equivalent to 250,000tpa over the period to 2023, it would be necessary to identify a minimum of about 3 million tonnes of resources from sites outside the ‘not immediately unacceptable’ sites in the Borough. This would inevitably mean having to give mineral extraction priority over some highly valued constraints relating to the safeguarding of archaeology and the protection of conservation areas, and/or the protection of residential areas from heavy traffic; and/or it could mean having to sacrifice established areas of public open space (such as perhaps Lake Farm Country Park in Hayes, or Cranford Park) for mineral extraction. 7 The wider significance of the size of remaining workable reserves in Hillingdon 7.1 The finite nature of the mineral reserves in Hillingdon is recognised in the MBR (paragraph 8.3.2 and paras 8.5.7 to 8.5.9). At the 250,000 tpa rate, the ‘possible’ reserves were calculated to last about 32 years. Although not a long period of time, this was not considered to create an immediate issue that needed to be addressed either within the Borough (e.g. in the LDF) or in wider forums (e.g. in the discussions of the London Aggregates Working Party, or in the content of The London Plan). 7.2 7.3 7.4 1 However, if the remaining resources within the proposed third runway area are taken out of the equation, Hillingdon’s ‘acceptable’ resources 1 will only last for 3-5 years. This gives rise to a very serious and immediate concern, in an area of planning where a minimum timehorizon is set at seven years, and where national and regional/Londonwide policies cover the period to 2016 (with the national policies expected to be extended shortly - see paragraph 9.13). One way in which (it might be thought) this issue could be addressed would be for other West London Boroughs to agree to increase their contributions towards the overall West London provision of 0.5mt/year, with a corresponding reduction in Hillingdon’s contribution from the currently-accepted figure of 250,000tpa. Reducing Hillingdon’s contribution to 100,000tpa would in theory allow the ‘acceptable’ resources to last for between 8 and 13 years - still a very short period, and still giving rise to an issue that would need to be addressed urgently within the forums referred to in paragraph 9.1, but not quite such an immediate problem. (Reducing the figure below 100,000tpa is considered unrealistic, since this is the minimum output that may reasonably be expected from a single sand and gravel working.) However, there is no reason to think that the other West London Boroughs have the mineral resources to enable them to increase their levels of provision to compensate for any enforced reduction in Hillingdon’s. Hounslow is believed to be the only other major mineralbearing Borough in West London, though there are may be some additional resources in Richmond and in Ealing. It is understood that Hounslow are currently carrying out an exercise which will allow them to estimate the size and suitability for working of their own mineral resources. At the moment, there is some doubt as to whether they have sufficient ‘acceptable’ resources to enable them to provide the greater part of the balance of 250,000tpa between Hillingdon’s proposed contribution to meeting the West London apportionment figure, and that total figure of 500,000tpa. If this proved to be the case, a consequence might be that pressure would be put on Hillingdon to increase its share from its proposed contribution of 250,000tpa. If sites in the proposed third runway area were excluded from consideration, this would not realistically be possible. But for Hounslow or the other West London Boroughs to contemplate increasing their contribution above their present assumed figure of 250,000tpa would, in these circumstances, be equally unrealistic. Wherever this term is used in this report, it should not be taken to mean that all the resources referred to will necessarily prove to be acceptable for future working once detailed assessments have been made by mineral operators, or once the environmental implications of mineral working at each site have been considered in greater detail. 7.5 Unless the other West London Boroughs were able to absorb any reduction in Hillingdon’s contribution of 250,000tpa, the only ways of accommodating such an enforced reduction - or an enforced curtailing of the period over which that level of provision could be sustained would be either by a move away from the 50:50 split of the London apportionment between West London and East London (i.e. requiring East London to accept an apportionment figure in excess of 500,000tpa), or by a reduction in the total level of primary aggregates provision expected from London. The latter in turn could necessitate a possible consequential increase in the levels expected from other regions. 7.6 Both these options would require discussions in wider forums - in the London Aggregates Working Party, in discussions between the mineral-bearing Boroughs, in discussions with the GLA, and in discussions with DCLG (who are ultimately responsible for the issue of the guidelines at regional level - although these are subject to testing at the more local level before being incorporated into RSS/SDS). 7.7 The construction of proposed third runway would represent a demand for aggregates on a scale that was not foreseen when the present national and regional guidelines were drawn up. It should therefore be accounted for in new national guidelines, rather than by trying to fit it in with the existing guidelines (which date from 2003). 7.8 To take a substantial proportion of the available material from within London for use, in effect, as a borrow pit on a single construction project raises issues about the continuing availability of resources for these more general purposes.