SCALE, HETEROGENEITY AND SECONDARY PRODUCTION IN TROPICAL RANGELANDS Andrew Ash1, John Gross2 and Mark Stafford Smith3 1 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, QLD 4067, AUSTRALIA CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Davies Laboratory, Private Mail Bag, Aitkenvale, QLD, 4814 3 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Centre for Arid Zone Research, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs NT 0871 2 ABSTRACT Tropical rangelands across the world are experiencing land use intensification pressures which are reducing the spatial scale of grazing management units. There are implications of a reduction in scale on environmental heterogeneity and its relationship with secondary production of large herbivores, and on the consequent risks of land degradation. Rangeland managers find it hard to conceptualise these implications, and there has been little research to clarify them in the past. This paper will review our current understanding of scale-related effects on livestock production in tropical rangelands and herbivore-plant interactions at patch to landscape scales. We use published information and results from recent empirical studies in northern Australia and elsewhere to elucidate scale-related effects on secondary production. These results indicate that empirical approaches alone will not provide all the understanding necessary for better management of extensive grazing lands that are undergoing intensification and that modelling approaches are important in helping to understand underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. Such modelling approaches need to encompass rangeland systems as complex, adaptive systems where socio-economic factors are just as important as biophysical understanding. We use a conceptual J-curve model to help explain how fragmentation and intensification affects the socio-ecological dynamics of arid and semi-arid grazing lands. INTRODUCTION Spatial scale and complexity play an important role in the functioning of socio-ecological systems in rangelands. Compared with many landscapes rangelands are often considered to be rather homogenous so fragmentation and its ecological implications may not be viewed as important issues. However, rangelands are diverse, albeit through relatively subtle variations and gradients in soil, vegetation and climate. Any individual landscape element may not appear to be complicated but these individual elements are linked and interact with each other through physical and ecological processes that form a complex ecosystem. Land use intensification throughout the rangelands is fragmenting landscapes into simpler, discrete units. The result is a reduction in the scale of landscape-animal-human interactions. There is evidence that this reduction in complexity has an impact on ecosystem function and system resilience (Behnke & Scoones 1993, Ellis & Swift 1988) which may lead to dysfunction in ecological communities, enterprise economics and social structures. This fragmentation can occur regionally, in the form of altered land tenure and/or enterprise size, and within enterprises, particularly in commercial pastoral operations that seek to intensify production. At the regional scale the fragmentation process can be represented in system dynamics by a J-curve (Figure 1), with the reduction in scale initially focussed on capturing (often but not necessarily by privatising) the higher quality resources (waters, grazing, cropping lands etc). However, at some stage, the history of rangelands in developed countries suggests that this process invariably reverses itself and consolidation of land begins to occur once more (hence the curl of the J). By this stage, the higher-value (usually, most agriculturally prospective) parts of the landscape have been excised and the re-consolidation occurs in the residual rangelands or grazing lands. The hypothesis is that this process is indeed part of the same syndrome, and not disjunct from the descending arm of the ‘J’. Notwithstanding some naturalistic aversion to development, it is important to realise that intensification is not necessarily bad in terms of net regional welfare – there are winners and losers but in most circumstances it is likely that net regional productivity can be increased by subdividing the landscape and specialising the use of different landscape elements. This is indeed the basis on which agricultural areas have developed throughout the world. However, it is a matter of interest to understand these processes because we contend that the point in the trajectory at which systems are at greatest risk of land degradation may be close to the bottom of the curve. If this is so, then understanding where the endpoint of intensification is most likely to be and facilitating the change to this point as efficiently as possible may be an important option for managing the process of intensification. The factors which drive the trade-offs allowing shifts along the curve are a complex mixture of the production and economic benefits of fragmenting the landscape balanced by the costs of acquiring and retaining ownership rights. Once the better lands have been excised, the balance of these factors in the residual rangelands changes again, triggering the tendency to re-consolidate. In short, the challenge is first to identify any marginal cases where continued subdivision really is not regionally beneficial (the trend being driven by inequitable exploitation or political ideology rather than legitimate net benefits), and, for those cases where the trend is warranted, minimise the transient degradation risks. Landscape fragmentation More fragmented More intact land tenure policy Mainly driven by commercial arrangements Unconstrained nomadic systems Privatisation of ‘better’ land as population increases Period of highest degradation risk Consolidation of residual rangelands Permanent excision of higher value land Theorised developmental trajectory over time (What is the appropriate endpoint in different systems??) Figure 1. Hypothesised process of fragmentation and reduction in scale in rangelands. In this paper we wish to focus on the role of spatial scale on landscape-herbivore interactions in tropical rangelands and the implications for system productivity and resilience. The initial emphasis will be on biophysical interactions in commercial pastoral enterprises inasmuch as these contribute an important parameterisation for the drivers of change on the J-curve but we will then consider briefly how these interact with the socio-economic drivers, and the issue of biophysical scale in rangelands. TROPICAL RANGELANDS OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA In common with rangeland regions throughout the world, the tropical rangelands of northern Australia are characterised by nutrient limited soils and a highly variable climate that is unsuitable for intensive agriculture. Pastoralism is the dominant land use, characterised by large-scale enterprises (10,000 to 1,000,000 ha) which generally rely on low inputs and have low outputs per hectare, and which are subject to uncertain markets and variable prices. The variable climate means that is difficult for pastoralists to match animal numbers to forage supply (O’Reagain & Bushell 1999) and there are episodic forage deficits and associated concerns about land degradation. Because individual management units (paddocks) are quite large, uneven utilisation due to landscape heterogeneity and poor distribution of water is common (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996), reducing the average utilisation efficiency of primary production per unit area. Increasing costs of production and relatively stable prices have resulted in a cost-price squeeze and the need for everincreasing efficiencies in production. This continuous cost-price squeeze is forcing many producers to examine ways of increasing productivity and returns and reducing costs. Most properties are relatively efficient, given their current scale and resolution of operation, with limited scope to dramatically reduce costs, so pastoralists are looking to intensify production to increase returns (Ash & Stafford Smith 2002). Many pastoralists have learnt from past attempts at increasing productivity that simply increasing animal numbers can lead to short-term gains, but resource damage and failing economics is the longer-term result (Landsberg et al. 1998). Current attempts at increasing production are focussed on overcoming some of the problems of uneven grazing distribution in large paddocks by increasing fencing and water points and reducing paddock size. These developments are undertaken on the assumption that carrying capacity will be sustainably increased. However, when making these decisions the potential benefits of larger, heterogeneous paddocks in terms of individual animal performance are often overlooked. Large, diverse paddocks can provide spatial buffering for animals during the dry season and during droughts (Scoones 1995) and less diverse, small paddocks may suffer in productivity if resource rich patches are no longer accessible (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996; Boone & Hobbs 2003). There may also be an impact of intensification on biodiversity. We know that increaser species are more abundant near water points and that grazing sensitive, decreaser species may only be found a long way from water where grazing pressure is very light or absent (James, Landsberg and Morton 1999). Provision of extra water points may see further declines in grazing sensitive species unless off-reserve conservation areas or formal reserve areas are increased at the same time. However, all of these effects are context dependent – for example, grazing impacts on preferred vegetation types depend greatly on whether those types are the minority or majority of the landscape, and whether they are more of less resilient than other components. To understand the effects of intensification and a change in scale and heterogeneity on plant-herbivore interactions and its implications for animal production and pastoral management, we therefore need to understand the critical foraging processes and decisions at all spatial scales. The next section of this paper briefly reviews plant-animal interactions at various scales in the context of management implications. SPATIAL SCALE, PLANT-HERBIVORE INTERACTIONS AND SECONDARY PRODUCTION Foraging decisions are made at a range of spatial scales that can be organised in a hierarchical manner (Senft et al. 1987). These spatial scales range from the bite up to the landscape and each scale can be defined according to characteristic behaviours that also involve different time scales (Bailey et al. 1996, Table 1). We now discuss foraging behaviour across these spatial scales and the implications of fragmentation on plant-animal interactions. Table 1. Spatial scale of forage and site selection in rangelands, and potential effects of fragmentation at each scale (modified from Bailey et al. 1996). Space and time scale Bite – 1-2 seconds Patch – 1-30 min Feeding site – 1-4 hrs Camp – 1-4 weeks Seasonal range – month to years Selection criteria Nutrient concentration, biomass density, toxins, bite concentration Forage species, forage abundance, topography Topography, plant community, soil type, forage abundance and phenology Water availability, topography, forage abundance, thermoregulation, plant phenology, predation, competition Water availability, forage quality and quantity, thermoregulation, predation, competition Effect of fragmentation None None to some impact. May limit management options (e.g., burning); may affect patch structure by facilitating intensive management (e.g. reducing patch structure via short-term, intensive grazing) None to large. Restrict access to landscape components, habitats, or preferred areas Potentially large effect if at appropriate scale. Restricted movements and access to landscape elements. Almost certainly large. Fragmentation may prohibit migration, dispersal, or transhumance Plant part and species selection At the finest spatial scales, foraging decisions are made on the basis of plant part (e.g. leaf vs. stem) and plant species. In tropical rangelands, which are dominated by tussock perennial grasses, the bulk of the diet is grass though forbs and shrubs can make significant contributions to the diet (Ash et al. 1995). This selection process can lead to changes in species composition which in turn can have feedback effects on diet selection and forage quality. For example, where the abundance of perennial grasses is reduced by grazing, diet quality can improve if more forbs are made accessible (Ash et al. 1995). However, net primary productivity of forages can be reduced in response to overuse at this spatial scale (Ash & McIvor 1998, McIvor, Ash & Cook 1995). Management does not influence plant-herbivore interactions significantly at this scale, except inasmuch as changes of total grazing numbers and distribution resulting from management changes at the whole paddock scale have an indirect effect on specific locations. Fragmentation of landscapes has relatively little impact on foraging decisions at this spatial scale. Patch scale grazing A distinctive feature of tussock dominated grasslands typical of tropical rangelands is patch grazing (Mott 1987), specifically defined as differentially patterned grazing in otherwise homogenous vegetation. Because of repeated grazing of patches once they are established, patch grazing can lead to localised degradation (Bridge, Mott & Hartigan 1983). The formation of patches can have benefits for animal production with the intake and diet quality of animals that have access to short patches being higher than that of animals grazing a more homogenous sward (Houliston, Ash & Mott 1996 – Table 2, Wilmshurst, Fryxell & Hudson 1995). Table 2. Effect of mown patches (5 patches per paddock, total patch area 16% of paddock) on diet quality, feed intake and foraging behaviour of cattle grazing tropical tallgrass pasture at Lansdown, near Townsville (Houliston et al. 1996). Mown plots were cut to about 10cm to allow regrowth which simulated a grazed patch. Dietary nitrogen (%) Dietary dry matter digestibility (%) Dry matter intake (kg/head/day) Grazing time in patches (%) Unmown Patchy 1.49 49.4 8.5 19 1.59 52.5 9.5 28 Does intensification of pastoral management have an impact on plant-herbivore interactions at the patch scale? As pastoral management intensifies there is scope for more high intensity grazing systems such as cell grazing or short duration grazing where large numbers of animals are used to mob-graze a small paddock and the paddock is then rested for some weeks or months. Such a grazing system has the potential to overcome patch grazing and although there is much anecdotal evidence that more intensive grazing systems achieve more uniform grazing distribution, experimental evidence has proved elusive (Hart et al. 1993). Fire has been used successfully to overcome patch grazing in tropical tallgrass communities (Andrew 1986) through a simple flip-flop burning regime. Fires tend to reset the system such that animals do not revisit old patches in recently burnt country. Such a fire regime is only practical in more intensively managed landscapes where there is good control of fire. Landscape foraging processes It is foraging decisions in landscapes that will be most affected by fragmentation and intensification in pastoral management so it is important that there is a good understanding of plant-herbivore interactions at this scale and their effect on animal production. It is well known that animals use landscapes unevenly, with respect to either distance to water or herbivore preferences for different vegetation communities (Senft, Rittenhouse & Woodmansee 1983, Lange 1985, Stafford Smith 1988, Pickup & Chewings 1988). It is usually the more fertile parts of the landscape (riparian areas, fertile clay soils) that are the focus of much of the grazing pressure (Scoones 1995, Ash et al. 1995). Such spatial selection can accelerate degradation if animals concentrate their grazing close to water or in more fertile pockets of the landscape (Pickup & Stafford Smith 1993). Overutilisation of these favoured areas can have negative feedback effects on forage productivity (Mott et al. 1992, Ash & McIvor 1998) and land condition. As more favoured areas lose productivity and their capacity to support animals, grazing activity is shifted to the next preferred areas and a cycle of sequential degradation across the landscape may result. This phenomenon is one of the main reasons that recommendations on fencing according to land type have been promoted in commercial rangelands. Grazing patterns in large, heterogeneous landscapes can have both positive and negative implications for animal production. The existence of key resource areas in large landscape-scale paddocks can help buffer animal productivity during extended dry seasons and droughts (Scoones 1995, Illius & O’Connor 1999). Studies of African grazing systems have consistently identified the importance of large-scale movements to sustaining both domestic and wild herbivores during droughts (Homewood & Lewis 1987; Walker et al. 1987; Coughenour et al. 1985). Analysis of mortality patterns has shown that despite a high annual variation in precipitation and plant production, mortality is related to both animal density and to access to variability in available grazing areas (Homewood & Lewis 1987; Desta & Coppock 2002; Walker et al. 1987). These empirical results are supported by recent efforts to simulate broad-scale dynamics of plant-herbivore systems, and they emphasize the dangers of fragmenting highly variable systems (Illius & O’Connor 1999, 2000). Anecdotally, pastoralists in black clay landscapes of northern Australia prefer a mix of heavy clay country and lighter red soils for animal production because of the different forage growth responses to rainfall on these two soils (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996). However, animal performance in large paddocks may suffer where there is poor water distribution. Hart et al. (1993) demonstrated this in temperate rangelands where the liveweight gain of cattle grazing a large paddock with water at one end of the paddock was significantly inferior to that of cattle grazing smaller paddocks where distance to water was 1.0-1.6 km. Clearly, intensification of grazing can have a major effect on plant-herbivore interactions and animal production. For most pastoral enterprises intensification is not just about increased infrastructure in the form of fences and/or water points to improve grazing distribution, but also usually includes decisions on stocking rate and carrying capacity. It is therefore important to look at the interaction of spatial scale and stocking rate when considering animal production in fragmented landscapes. At small spatial scales a linear decline in animal performance with increasing stocking rate has been clearly demonstrated in rangelands (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996). However, it is unclear whether this relationship Animal production/head can be extrapolated to landscape scale paddocks. If spatial buffering is occurring in heterogeneous paddocks then the stocking rate – animal performance relationship may not be a linear decline. We hypothesise that animal performance per head may decline slowly with increasing stocking rate until a critical threshold is reached, such as the depletion of key pockets of fertility, which is then followed by a rapid decline in animal performance (Figure 2). There is remarkably little empirical evidence to support this hypothesis. One grazing trial in northern Australia investigating stocking rate impacts on animal performance does have paddocks that are reasonably large (400ha – 1200ha) and in this study there has been very little effect of stocking rate on individual animal performance (N. MacDonald pers. comm., Figure 3). This result contrasts with an analysis of a large number of small spatial scale stocking rate studies in rangelands where there was on average a 20-25% decline in animal performance with a doubling in stocking rate (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996). However some caution needs to be exercised in inferring the results of the large scale grazing trial as strongly supporting our hypothesis of stocking rate- animal production relationships in landscape paddocks as it is a single study and the majority of the years in the experimental study were well above average in terms of rainfall and pasture growth. Large, heterogenous Homogenous Stocking rate Figure 2. Hypothesised stocking rate – animal production relationship in relation to scale and landscape complexity. If there is a significant difference in the nature of these stocking rate – animal performance relationships at different spatial scales then it is important to take this into account in the context of landscape intensification. For example, smaller homogenous paddocks may provide the opportunity to increase stock numbers because of better water distribution. Hart et al. (1993) found individual animal performance may be improved by modifying cattle distributions to prevent over-utilisation of areas close to water and underutilisation of areas distant from water. However, there may be a trade-off in the performance of individual animals if a reduction in paddock size is accompanied by a reduction in landscape and dietary diversity. This context-specific issue has not been adequately addressed in the rangelands and it has important implications for rangeland management. For example, is it possible to achieve the benefits of more even utilisation provided by increased water points and also the potential benefits of increased dietary diversity provided by large heterogeneous paddocks by increasing water points in large paddocks rather than sub-dividing them? This can also have benefits for pastoral management in reducing fencing costs, which is a major expense in any intensification of rangeland enterprises. The effects of scale on plant-herbivore interactions and the most appropriate management response will be very much dependent on how synchronous or asynchronous forage production and quality is between landscape elements, as well as the resilience or susceptibility to herbivory of different vegetation units (Ash & Stafford Smith 1996). These interactions and their management implications can be expressed in a simple matrix (Table 3) which in effect provides some simple rules of thumb for incorporating into decisions on intensification. To help answer these questions of landscape diversity, water points and subdivision and their interaction with foraging behaviour and animal production two new field studies in northern Australia have commenced (Hunt et al. 2003 – this volume) that should provide empirical data to support or reject the hypotheses raised in this section. 95 170 90 160 85 150 80 140 75 130 70 120 65 110 Reproduction Annual liveweight gain of steers (kg) 180 Weaning percentage 100 Steer gain 60 100 7.5 10 15 Stocking rate (head per sq km) Figure 3. Effect of stocking rate on animal performance in a tropical savanna environment in northern Australia where paddock sizes ranged from 400 ha to 1200ha. Based on unpublished data of Neil MacDonald, Northern Territory Department of Business, Industry and Development, Katherine, NT. Table 3. Relationships between forage production and quality at the landscape scale and likely implications of fragmentation for production and management (after Ash & Stafford Smith 1996). Forage growth and quality between landscape elements Asynchronous Preferred vegetation units Impact on animal production & vegetation Effects of fragmentation Resilient Potential loss of animal productivity because heterogeneity cannot be exploited Asynchronous Susceptible Enhanced animal production, vegetation stable through time Enhanced animal production but preferred areas at significant risk of degradation Synchronous Resilient Synchronous Susceptible Little production advantage in trying to exploit diversity, vegetation stable through time Little production advantage in trying to exploit diversity, preferred areas at risk of degradation Loss of heterogeneity may be deleterious for animal production but, because parts of the landscape are susceptible, subdivision may make it easier to manage degradation risk Fragmentation has little effect on animal production or management – these landscapes are already likely to be smaller scale in both size of enterprise and paddock size Fragmentation has little effect on animal production and in fact maybe desirable from a management perspective so degradation-prone landscape elements can receive more focussed management. Given the complexity of plant-animal interactions at the landscape scale, experimental or experiential evidence may identify patterns, but the identification of common patterns, by itself, is unlikely to advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving the observed changes. Development and application of rangeland systems models is thus likely to be a necessary component in the evaluation of conceptual models, as hypotheses, of how these systems operate and how various forms of fragmentation and/or intensification will influence their dynamics, including productivity, resilience, and sustainability. MODELLING PLANT-ANIMAL INTERACTIONS IN COMPLEX LANDSCAPES An understanding of plant-animal interactions is a key foundation for constructing models of rangeland systems that incorporate spatial heterogeneity. As stated earlier, herbivores respond to heterogeneity at scales from individual bites to major landscapes components, such as vegetation types, major topographic features, or microclimates (Senft et al. 1988; Coughenour 1991; Bailey et al. 1996), and there are important feedbacks between consumers and producers at all scales. Given the importance of these interactions, has simulation modelling improved management of grazing systems? Most studies of plant-animal dynamics in rangelands have been at smaller scales, and we now have a firm understanding of processes that regulate short-term intake rate of herbivores (Laca, Ungar & Demment 1994, Spalinger & Hobbs 1992, Ungar & Noy-Meir 1988)) and experimental data that support process-based models across a broad range of herbivore species (Gross et al. 1993). These studies have provided a direct link between the mechanics of feeding and the response in intake rate, and this mechanistic link permits the broad application of these models across plant types, feeding habits, and body sizes. Insights from the development of fine-scale, mechanistic models have been key to understanding system dynamics of species that are tightly coupled to relatively homogeneous food resources at small spatial scales (e.g., Illius et al. 1995) and for predicting gain functions of animals in intensively grazed grasslands (usually in temperate environments). They appear to be far less applicable to, for example, tropical systems where there is extreme heterogeneity in the structure, quality and quantity of forages on offer within a paddock or feeding area. In this situation, tradeoffs between quality and intake rate greatly complicate diet selection, and our ability to predict either intake rate or gain is limited. The major challenge to extrapolating small-scale processes to the larger scales more relevant to extensive grazing systems is the large effect of animal behaviour. Mechanistic models can accurately predict intake rates of hungry animals over small spatial and temporal scales, but selectivity, movement patterns, social interactions, memory, and environmental factors clearly influence the spatial distribution of herbivores and their subsequent use of forages at paddock and landscape scales (Senft et al. 1988; Coughenour 1991; Bailey et al. 1996). At the largest scales, both statistical and process-based models have successfully reproduced observed patterns of landscape-scale habitat use by domestic and wild herbivores. When animal movements are largely unconstrained by fences or other barriers, spatial patterns of habitat use by herbivores can often be explained using relatively simple algorithms based on forage quality, topography, snow depth, or other factors that are, in general, relatively intuitive (Stafford Smith 1988; Turner et al. 1993; Gross et al. 2001). In arid areas, water is clearly the dominant influence on movements of domestic livestock. The selection of habitats by domestic herbivores and large-scale patterns of defoliation and ecosystem modification can be largely accounted for by the location of water (Andrew 1988; Hodder & Low 1978; James et al. 1999). At an intermediate scale (500-20,000 ha), it has proved to be much more difficult to predict the spatial distribution of grazing in many situations. It is essential to understand plant-animal interactions at this scale because it is at this scale that fragmentation is occurring in many rangelands, at both enterprise and paddock scales. Regression models have provided some insight to factors that can influence the spatial distribution of animals (e.g., Senft et al. 1983), but these are highly situation-specific and they cannot be easily generalized to handle conditions outside the range of the input data. At one level this would appear to limit the utility of simulation models. However, the wisdom of only trying to precisely manage the spatial distribution of grazing effects, rather than manage for whole-paddock condition, should be questioned in the highly variable environments typical of rangeland systems. At the whole-paddock scale, a variety of models has been usefully applied to guide management (e.g., GRASP (Littleboy & McKeon 1997), SPUR (Foy et al. 1999)). At larger scales, habitat use and feedbacks between vegetation and herbivores have been incorporated into models with a spatial representation of the landscape. Illius & O’Connor (2000) developed a very parsimonious model that simply represented the landscape as dry and wet season range, without inferring an explicit spatial structure, and making various assumptions about their characteristics which mean the model deals only with one of the combinations in Table 3. Simulations were designed to address on-going controversy on livestock population controls in semi-arid rangelands, and model results importantly showed how environmental degradation could be more likely in systems with higher environmental variability, in contrast to widely held predictions based on more qualitative arguments (Ellis & Swift 1988; Behnke & Scoones 1992). The widespread acceptance of a conceptual model of rangeland disequilibrium, where degradation is unlikely in highly variable systems, has had a huge impact on international development efforts, and model results that refute this hypothesis are important to opening this debate. Illius and O’Connor’s model epitomized the use of a very simple model for addressing an important conceptual issue. However, their model is not suitable for simulating any particular location due to its generality and broad assumptions. More detailed models have addressed needs to support decisions on paddock or landscape-level management of large herbivores. At large spatial scales, simulation models have made important contributions to evaluating management of grazing lands where competition between domestic and wild herbivores is important (Weisburg et al. 2002), and they have been an integral component of large-scale research in pastoral landscapes (Coughenour et al. 1985). Results from simulation models have supported the hypothesis that environmental heterogeneity has important consequences for large herbivores (Turner et al. 1993; Boone & Hobbs 2003). Rangeland models have thus far focused on representing the dynamics of the biophysical system, although some models have integrated or been linked to relatively simple economic models. If the issue of intensification in arid and semi-arid landscapes is to be properly understood then it is essential that both biophysical and socio-economic aspects are considered (cf. Stafford Smith & Reynolds 2002, on related issues to do with degradation). In the future, decisions on policy and high-level management recommendations will be enhanced by support from models that represent rangeland systems as complex adaptive systems, where both the biophysical system and the institutions (people, policies, governance structures) are coevolving. The conceptual basis of these models is still in its infancy, although early efforts are promising and new tools provide a means for efficiently constructing integrative models (Janssen et al. 2000; Walker & Abel 2002). To support decisions on important rangeland policies and programs, such as those that promote or discourage intensification, we need a toolkit that provides credible insights to systems dynamics – systems that consist of intricately linked biophysical, socio-economic and institutional components. The J-curve of Fig.1, to which we now return, represents one conceptual example of such linkages. OTHER SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS IN THE J-CURVE INTENSIFICATION TRADEOFF Trends towards increasing fragmentation depicted by the downwards component of the J-curve in Fig. 1 are generally associated with privatisation in developing nations. However, these trends actually apply in any intensification process and may simply reflect more fencing in developed nations (although historically this has also usually been associated with the break-up of large properties into smaller units). Intensification is driven by the balance between the costs of controlling the smaller or excised units and the benefits received from that control. Where the trend is from low-density nomadic pastoralism to greater settlement, fragmentation is usually focused initially around water sources and better soils for agriculture. It becomes more feasible for individuals to control these resources (Demsetz 1967, Behnke 1985) as communal institutions break down, tenure rules change to permit privatisation, and the day-to-day costs of defending the resource (e.g. fencing and guarding) decline as a result of technology or the availability of labour, or even changing levels of public law enforcement. In developed nations, greater subdivision has been driven by similar political imperatives and subsidies, but also by the declining real costs of fencing and artificial waterpoints for animal control. The desirable extent of subdivision is determined by a balance between the production responses discussed in earlier sections, and the economic and social issues touched on here. The rising arm of the J-curve is presumed to apply to the residual grazing lands once the higher value land has been effectively excised from the landscape. Obviously in agriculturally-dominated districts the residue is very small, so this discussion is of interest primarily where only a small proportion of the landscape is thus excised. Notably, the excised areas will invariably include critical water resources or the better soils, so their excision is likely to have a significant effect on the capacity of the remainder of the landscape to produce. The reconsolidation of management units is again driven by changing patterns of costs and benefits; however, it usually a phenomenon of management rather than animal behaviour, in the sense that properties are amalgamated, but management is used to control animal movement around the expanded area rather than the removal of fencing. Furthermore, although a single person may buy up many properties, it is also possible to gain greater scale through commercial arrangements such as agistment, sub-leasing, and many others that can be found among pastoralists in the Australian rangelands. Thus the tenure system, usually very important on the downward arm, becomes less important in reconsolidation. The forces driving ‘consolidation’ are partly economies of scale, and partly enabling managers to access a greater diversity of landscape resources, including even, where the properties are spatially separated, climatic patterns. In a few cases, where management is aimed at sustaining wildlife diversity through natural processes rather than achieving maximal animal production per se, internal fences may actually be removed. In the celebrated commercial game ranch example of Kruger National Park in South Africa, even boundary fences were removed when this trend occurred in private ranches alongside the park. The detailed process of consolidation thus depends in part on the land use purpose, but also on the fine-scale landscape processes described earlier. If the landscape types are such that it is more efficient to have small paddocks, then consolidation will simply be a matter of owning more land. If the landscape processes (and land use purposes) are such that landscape selection by herbivores is important, then fencing may actually be removed, as in the example of game ranches, some pastoral needs and even grouse moors in Scotland. On the other hand, if the issue is simply that of spreading climatic risk (and animals can be easily trucked between localities), then even properties at some distance can be combined operationally. In short, that part of consolidation which is driven by more efficient use of spatial diversity rather than simple economies of scale may be responding to a number of different processes, themselves operating at different scales. Why does any of this matter? In some landscape types, at least, it is around the point of greatest fragmentation that degradation seems most likely to occur. This may be hypothesised for degradation relevant to landscape productivity within management units or paddocks, but also at a more regional scale in terms of impacts on public values such as biodiversity (James et al. 1999). The rationale for these assertions is that, at the point where the better landscapes are being excised for other uses, the residual rangelands are most over-fragmented in comparison to the best cost-benefit level of fragmentation. Given the effects of discounting on human behaviour and inevitable lags in recognising the problems (Stafford Smith et al. 2000), yet the greatest degree of subdivision and grazing pressure on the land, the environment is most at risk in its most fragmented state. The level of risk differs greatly between environments with different environmental and socioeconomic contexts, but will consistently be higher at this point than at other stages in the process. In summary, it seems conceivable that we could move towards a complete theory of the trade-offs involved in this Jcurve of intensification and extensification, which may help explain the rate at which a socio-ecological system evolves through the putative changes. The biophysical factors discussed in the earlier part of this paper, together with socioeconomic drivers, may also determine how likely it is that substantial degradation may occur at different stages in the process, and consequently whether policy mechanisms should seek to take the system evolution through these risk points quickly. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper (like the symposium in which it was presented) is dedicated to the memory of Dr Jim Ellis, chief investigator and driving force behind the US National Science Foundation Biocomplexity project known as SCALE. The authors of this paper had many stimulating discussions with Jim Ellis over a number of years about many of the ideas and hypotheses expressed in this paper and we are extremely grateful for the encouragement he provided in pursuing these ideas. We all miss Jim’s intellect, drive and commitment to rangeland ecology, and his friendship. REFERENCES Andrew MH 1986. 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