FILING - 05/29/2013
Basis and Purpose
Chapter W-2 - Big Game
Basis and Purpose:
These regulations amend Chapter W-2 - Big Game - of the Wildlife Commission regulations and are
necessary to properly manage big game populations in Colorado. They establish limited license numbers
for deer, elk, pronghorn, moose, and black bear during seasons which were adopted in January 2013;
and include licenses for archery, muzzle-loading, early, regular, plains, late rifle and private land only
seasons with respect to each species. Limited license numbers are set for specific game management
units or groups of units. Limited license numbers are established to maintain big game herds at or near
long-term population objectives, and, in the case of antlered deer, antlered elk, buck pronghorn and
moose they are also set to achieve sex ratio objectives. The herd objectives are intended to maintain
healthy populations, provide a diversity of hunting opportunities for residents and nonresidents, allow and
maintain public recreational opportunity, minimize or control local game damage situations on private land
and provide opportunity for landowners to cooperatively manage wildlife with the Division through the
Ranching for Wildlife program. These resulting limited license numbers take into account harvest
estimates and hunter success rates, wildlife counts and surveys, as well as impacts of winter weather and
predation on big game populations. As is the case each year, this effort represents the culmination of
numerous hours of work by various Division employees involved in the accumulation and analysis of data
and a great deal of time spent with interested publics explaining both the recommendations and the
rationale behind them.
Deer
All deer hunting in Colorado is by limited license. In 2012, 160,000 hunters applied for Colorado deer
licenses. Demand for deer licenses has remained steady at that level for nearly a decade. In 2013, CPW
is recommending 82,600 deer licenses, an increase of 2,800 licenses from 2012 (+4%). The predicted
2013 deer harvest from these license recommendations is 32,000. The 2012 harvest estimate was
33,000 deer.
In herds west of I-25, our 2013 license recommendation is 67,700, an increase of 4% from the 65,100
issued in 2012. Of these, 9,500 are antlerless rifle licenses (+8%), 2,800 are either-sex rifle licenses
(+2%), 40,300 are antlered rifle licenses (+3%), 9,800 are archery licenses (+3%), and 6,600 are
muzzleloader licenses (+5%). Antlerless and either-sex license increases are proposed only in those
units that are performing well and above population objective. We are not proposing license increases for
herds in far western Colorado which have been declining in recent years.
In herds east of I-25, our 2013 license recommendation is 15,000, an increase of 2% from the 14,700
issued in 2012. Of these, 5,500 are antlerless rifle licenses (+4%), 1,300 are either-sex rifle licenses
(+8%), 3,800 are antlered rifle licenses (-2%), 3,000 are archery licenses (no change), and 1,400 are
muzzleloader licenses (no change).
To reduce populations of white-tailed deer in some herds, we will continue to offer a limited number of
licenses for white-tailed deer only. This allows us to provide more hunting opportunity for this more
productive species without impacting mule deer populations.
The statewide post-hunt 2012 deer population estimate is 408,000, compared to 418,000 in 2011. The
predicted post-hunt population estimate resulting from the 2013 license recommendations is 414,000, a
slight increase but still far below the current statewide population objective range of 525,000 - 575,000
spanning 55 deer herds. We prioritize and systematically revise herd management plans to align
populations with what the habitat can support. Some management plans have yet to be updated.
Therefore the statewide range still includes herd management plans that were based on outdated
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population models that often overestimated deer numbers and plans that were written at a time when
population sizes were, in fact, larger. Our higher statewide population objective also reflects CPW’s
desire to increase size of deer herds which have experienced recent declines.
The statewide population estimates declined by 10% or more since last year in 7 of 55 deer herds (13%).
Deer in the far western portions of the state experienced the greatest declines, with 5 of the 7 declining
herds located on the Western Slope.
Despite drastically reduced license numbers, some herds continue to decline indicating harvest is not the
primary factor reducing population size. These herds often have below average fawn/doe ratios and fawn
survival, and therefore low recruitment, which results in declining buck/doe ratios and populations.
Sportsmen and women, landowners, and CPW are concerned about declining deer populations in
western Colorado. CPW is in the process of developing a stakeholder process focusing on deer
management. The goal is to expand the state’s comprehensive mule deer management strategy with a
stronger focus on declining deer herds on the Western Slope.
While there’s reason for concern in many western herds, others are performing well. The diversity of deer
habitat types and environmental conditions around the state create considerable geographic variability in
population performance. Most deer herds in the central and northern mountains are performing well, and
population sizes and license numbers are increasing. We are encouraged by increasing buck/doe ratios
post-hunt 2012 in several herds. In 2013, we are starting to restore quotas that we reduced in response to
declines from the winter of 2007/2008 in herds that are recovering and/or are above population and sex
ratio objectives. Examples include D-21, D-22, D-25 in the Gunnison Basin, D-8 State Bridge, and D-9
Middle Park, and D-43 Sweetwater. Additionally, most plains deer populations in the Northeast and
Southeast Regions remained relatively stable and are providing good hunting opportunity.
CPW intensively monitors annual adult doe survival and winter fawn survival in five mule deer herds.
These herds were selected to ecologically and geographically represent mule deer west of I-25. We also
monitor buck survival in two of these herds. Three of the five intensive deer monitoring areas have
experienced declines, and two are increasing. Survival rates from these herds are used in deer
population models for the rest of the herds west of I-25. CPW annually monitors approximately 900 radiocollared mule deer in the five intensive monitoring areas.
CPW conducts post-hunt herd inventories with helicopters to estimate the sex ratios of males/100
females and the age ratios of young/100 females. In addition to survival rates, these ratios are needed to
estimate population size using population models.
The average of sex ratio objectives for deer herds statewide is 30 bucks/100 does. Most deer herds
remain at or near sex ratio objectives. During the post-hunt herd inventories in 2012, biologists classified
69,400 deer and observed an average sex ratio of 30.7 bucks/100 does, compared to 29.3 bucks/100
does in 2011.
Based on these observed post-hunt sex ratios and high hunter success, which was 50% for all rifle
seasons in 2012, overall buck hunting continues to be good. This good hunting even applies to some of
the declining herds where we lowered license numbers to achieve the sex ratio objectives and maintain
the opportunity to harvest mature males.
Elk
Elk licenses in most units in 2013 will include over-the-counter archery licenses [145 of 186 GMUs (78%)]
and over-the-counter second and third season rifle bull licenses [92 of 186 GMUs (49%)]. All rifle
antlerless licenses, muzzleloader, first, fourth, and late season licenses are limited. In 2012, 188,000
hunters applied for Colorado limited elk licenses.
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Total limited elk license recommendations are very similar to 2012, changing less than 1% (-1,100). We
are recommending 138,300 licenses compared to 139,500 in 2012.
Most of the license changes for 2013 are adjustments within herds, such as between GMUs and seasons
to meet demand and management objectives. When herds are at or near population objective, either-sex
licenses are often converted back to male and antlerless specific licenses. This allows us to reduce cow
harvest and increase overall hunting opportunity. The total number of recommended limited either-sex
rifle licenses decreased from 26,800 to 19,400 (-28%). Correspondingly, statewide antlerless licenses
recommendations increased from 75,400 to 77,400 (+3%) and limited bull license recommendations
increased from 14,600 to 23,700 (+62%). Antlerless license numbers increased as a result of an increase
in female harvest objective in herds E-10 and E-14 in the Northwest Region.
This year’s license recommendations are similar to 2012, as they reflect for most of the large herds, a
quota that has been considerably reduced over the last few years. These reductions account for success
in bringing elk populations towards objective and thus a decreasing need for antlerless harvest, aligning
quotas with hunter demand, and responding to impacts of late season youth harvest.
These recommendations and the associated female harvest objectives will place many of our largest elk
herds at or near the bottom of the population objective ranges which were implemented in part
considering drought conditions. Additionally, we have reduced most populations considerably since the
drought of 1999-2003 and antlerless harvest remains substantial in most herds.
The predicted 2013 elk harvest is 43,000, which is similar to last year’s harvest of 43,500. The harvest is
achieved through the recommended limited licenses and over-the-counter licensed hunting. Bull harvest
in 2012 was nearly identical to 2011 at 22,000. Antlerless harvest was 21,500, which is also similar to the
21,800 harvested in 2011. Note that the statewide antlerless elk harvest from limited licenses is almost
equal to the bull elk harvest, even with over-the-counter bull licenses in many areas. This illustrates the
significant amount of hunting opportunity these license recommendations present. Overall, the predicted
harvest would yield a predicted 2013 post-hunt population of 261,000 elk.
The statewide elk population estimate is 266,000 in post-hunt 2012, compared to 265,000 in 2011. The
current post-hunt population objective range for elk DAUs statewide is 220,000 - 260,000. We continue
to prioritize the revision and implementation of herd management plans, as this statewide objective range
is partially based on historic herd management plans that were written with outdated population models
that underestimated elk numbers. Since season and license setting is designed to utilize antlerless
harvest to bring elk populations to herd objectives, further reductions in antlerless licenses are anticipated
in the future as more elk populations reach objectives.
As we’ve intentionally reduced elk populations to achieve population objectives, hunters and outfitters
increasingly have expressed concern that elk populations are becoming too low in some herds, despite
the fact that 41% of the elk herds are still above their current population objectives. Based on feedback
from the public, CPW gives serious consideration to raising population objectives in herds as herd
management plans are revised. These requests are balanced with landowners’ concerns about game
damage and with information from public land management agencies about habitat condition and
preferences identified by local communities and sportsmen. Past experiencesare informing the upper and
lower social thresholds for elk population size in many herds, which will benefit us greatly in future herd
management planning efforts.
The current average sex ratio objective range for elk herds statewide is 22-26 bulls/100 cows. Most elk
herds are near bull/cow ratio objectives. In 2012, during the post-hunt herd inventories, biologists used
helicopter surveys to classify 76,500 elk and observed a statewide average sex ratio of 23.4 bulls/100
cows, up slightly from the 22.6 bulls/100 cows observed in 2011.
During these surveys over the past few years we’ve observed lower than normal calf/cow ratios in the
southern tier of the state in both the Southwest and Southeast Regions. Some herds have three-year
average calf ratios as
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low as 25 calves/100 cows. The three-year average is 35 calves/100 cows in the Southwest Region and
32 calves/100 cows in the Southeast Region. This is compared to 49 calves/100 cows in the Northwest
Region and 42 calves/100 cows in the Northeast Region. Northern Colorado typically has higher calf
ratios. CPW will continue to monitor calf/cow ratios annually and we expect improvement when the
drought subsides. Further research and management changes may be necessary if the calf production
remains low.
In general the 2013 statewide license recommendations for elk are very similar to the total quota issued in
2012 because many herds are near the desired population size. Having a combination of units that are
limited in all seasons and units that have both limited and over-the-counter hunting seasons allows us to
offer a very wide range of hunting opportunities on one of the nation’s premier elk populations.
Pronghorn
The majority of pronghorn licenses are limited; the exception is over-the-counter archery licenses
available in many herds [131 of 186 GMUs (70%)]. The number of limited rifle licenses recommended for
2013 is 19,000, down from 23,900 in 2012 (-21%). These reductions, primarily in the Southeast Region,
account for recent and successful decreases in pronghorn numbers, issues of over-crowding and low
hunter success, and adjustments of license levels to meet hunter demand and reduce unsold licenses.
Therefore, we are recommending 4,700 (-27%) fewer licenses in the Southeast Region. Of these,
3,100 (-29%) are doe licenses.
In 2010, pronghorn harvest set a record of 12,300. The 2011 pronghorn harvest estimate of 11,700 was
lower, despite issuing more licenses. The 2012 harvest was even lower at 9,900 with similar license
numbers. Harvest is lower because pronghorn populations are smaller. The lowest success rate (48%)
ever observed was last year. Thresholds for licenses and hunter numbers have been reached or
exceeded in several pronghorn herds. CPW staff, hunters, and landowners in the Southeast Region have
expressed concern over hunter density in many areas. This year’s license recommendations are
designed to move populations towards objectives while addressing these types of challenges.
The predicted 2013 pronghorn harvest is 9,400 with a predicted 2013 post-hunt population of 65,000.
The estimated statewide post-hunt pronghorn population is 67,000 in 2012, down from the peak of 79,000
in 2010. The statewide population objective range for hunted pronghorn herds is 66,000 - 74,000.
The population reduction is attributable to increased doe harvest, List B licenses, and late seasons
designed to achieve population objectives in the Southeast Region. Additionally, drought conditions have
negatively impacted populations by reducing fawn production and recruitment.
The pronghorn population estimate in the Southeast Region is 30,000, which is nearing the upper
population objective range of 25,000 to 29,000. Northwest and Southwest Region pronghorn population
estimates went down slightly and many of those herds, also impacted by drought, are not performing well.
Most populations are stable in the Northeast Region but we have observed lower fawn/doe ratios there as
well.
During pre-hunt herd surveys in 2012, conducted with helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft, biologists
classified 16,500 pronghorn. The average observed pre-hunt ratio of bucks/100 does was 45 bucks/100
does compared to 43 buck/100 does in 2011.
The 2013 reduction in pronghorn license recommendations reflect that we have reduced many herds in
the Southeast Region and that thresholds of hunters afield have been exceeded. Regardless, Colorado
still offers some premiere hunting for one of North America’s iconic animals.
Moose
All moose licenses will remain limited. For 2013, we are recommending 228 moose licenses.
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License demand far exceeds allocation, with 16,500 applicants for 219 moose licenses in 2012.
Statewide moose harvest was 185 in 2012, compared to 152 in 2011.
Moose populations continue to do well throughout the state. We are fortunate because most other states
are experiencing declines in their moose populations. With a new season in 2013 for the M-6 White River
herd resulting from transplant efforts, we now have moose hunting in 39 GMUs. The estimated statewide
post-hunt moose population in herds open to moose hunting is 2,300 in 2012, compared to 2,000 in 2012.
The current population objective range for all moose herds is 1,700 – 2,200.
Bear
Eight bear management areas (B-2, B-3, B-4, B-5, B-6, B-7, B-17, and B-18) are governed by the
strategic goals and objectives contained in their revised plans which were approved in 2011 and 2013.
License recommendations are aimed at achieving the strategic goals and harvest objectives of these
management plans. In most plan areas the goals are to continue bear population reductions, while in B-3
and B-13 the goal is to stabilize bear populations at about current levels.
The remaining management areas have plans that were completed in 2000. Their objectives were
determined by average harvest and mortality amounts documented during the years 1994-1999. These
antiquated objectives are not applicable to current bear and human population levels, constrain harvest
management, and thus don’t provide the flexibility to deal with current conditions. Based on the following
analysis and information we recommend license allocations and harvest objectives for the 2013 seasons
that will continue stabilizing or decreasing bear populations. These recommendations necessitate the
Parks and Wildlife Commission supersede the harvest objectives in the following management areas: B1, B-10, B-11, B-12, B-15, and B-16, replacing them with harvest objectives outlined in the attached 2013
Black Bear License Recommendation Analysis table. We propose leaving the harvest objectives in B-14
and B-19 at status quo for 2013.
In 2013 the statewide harvest objective is 1,795 and the statewide total mortality objective is 2,153. The
sum of license allocations for all bear management areas is 21,167 licenses, a 20% (3,563 licenses)
increase from the 2012 allocation. The predicted harvest with the approved license allocations is 1,373
bears. Female bears are expected to comprise about 42% to 45% of the harvest and we expect greater
than 55% of the female bears will be adult bears. The predicted harvest is lower than the harvest
objective because of adjustments in participation rates and anticipated hunter success rates.
Nevertheless, these license levels and estimated harvest amounts appear to be accomplishing our
management goals of stabilizing or reducing black bear populations.
The information and data gained from ongoing efforts to improve bear management have been applied to
the 2013 bear license recommendations. Specifically, the age and gender composition of harvest derived
from tooth cementum aging methods and the harvest composition data that is examined in 3-year running
average intervals have been incorporated. The cumulative data from 2009-2011 show that adult males
comprised 22% of harvest, females comprised 37% of all harvest, and 53% of all females harvested were
adult females. These composition data suggest that the black bear population in Colorado is stable or
slightly decreasing. Preliminary examination of the 2012 harvest composition data shows the continued
signs of retarding bear population growth in that females comprised 41% of all harvest and 58% of those
females were adult animals. Both of these values are indicative of a decreasing bear population.
CPW also estimates bear population densities using genetic mark-recapture survey methods conducted
in initially 3, and now 6 different sites, which are then used to extrapolate likely population size in the 17
managed bear DAUs. Data analysis has indicated that considerably larger bear populations exist in
Colorado (16,000-18,000 conservatively projected) than were previously projected. Qualitatively, hunter
success rates have remained much higher (2 to 6 percentage points higher) over the past 5 years than
historic long-term averages, regardless of annual forage conditions. Hunter success rates held steady in
most DAUs or very slightly decreased in the face of poor natural forage conditions. During poor fall
forage conditions we expect bears to be much more vulnerable to hunter harvest. Therefore, absence of
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a spike in success rates, or a decrease as was seen in several bear management areas points toward a
decreasing bear population trend.
From 2002 through 2012, social metrics have revealed increasing levels of: human-bear conflicts, nonhunt bear mortality, non-compensable losses to non-agricultural personal property, frequency of injuries
inflicted on humans, and concern expressed by local and municipal governments and elected bodies
about bear populations and management. This information suggests that bear populations remain in
excess of human community tolerance thresholds in most bear habitat in Colorado. Information and
education campaign actions by CPW personnel and volunteers to mitigate and prevent human-bear
conflicts are exceptional and aggressive. During high conflict years Regional personnel may spend
nearly 60% of all regional staff time on the various aspects of conflict management. Historically, high
conflict years occurred about once every 10 years. Yet, from 2000-2012 high conflict years have
occurred once every 3 years on average across extensive geographic areas. Average annual reported
conflicts now equal or exceed the peak numbers of conflicts reported 10-15 years ago.
Forage conditions in 2012 were exceptionally poor across all of Colorado, except for the SE Region
where conditions south of Colorado Springs were about average. Elsewhere, spring and summer
temperatures were above average and spring/summer precipitation was below average. Fall forage
conditions tended to follow a similar pattern. Where fall forage conditions were poor we expect hunter
success rates to be high because bears are more mobile in search of food and thus more vulnerable to
harvest. Our data also show increased non-hunt mortality during years with poor natural forage
production. This held true in 2012 with a record 628 bears succumbing to non-hunt mortality factors.
Current black bear research in the Durango area is comparing the demographic attributes of bears that
utilize urban environments with those that are primarily wild-land inhabitants to quantify the effects of
human foods on bear population performance.
The preponderance of information and data available indicate Colorado’s black bear populations remain
robust and appear to be stable if not slightly decreasing, as intended. CPW will continue the bear density
hair surveys across various bear habitat types to inform and refine our black bear population projections.
Monitoring and evaluating mortality with age and gender composition data derived from tooth cementum
allows management flexibility to implement bear plan objectives while assuring population persistence.
Finally, research objectives are aligned with management needs in determining the long term effects of
human food availability on bear reproduction and survival rates.
The primary statutory authority for these regulations can be found in § 24-4-103, C.R.S., and the
state Wildlife Act, §§ 33-1-101 to 33-6-209, C.R.S., specifically including, but not limited to: §§ 33-1106, C.R.S.
EFFECTIVE DATE - THESE REGULATIONS SHALL BECOME EFFECTIVE JULY 1, 2013 AND
SHALL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT UNTIL REPEALED, AMENDED OR SUPERSEDED.
APPROVED AND ADOPTED BY THE PARKS AND WILDLIFE COMMISSION OF THE STATE OF
COLORADO THIS 9th DAY OF MAY, 2013.
APPROVED:
John W. Singletary
Chairman
ATTEST:
Mark Smith
Secretary
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