Constructing Post-Cold War Collective Security Brian Frederking Presented by Kim Yun Kea Supporting Theory: Language Games: Dialogical Analysis of INF Negotiation Gavan Duffy; Brian K. Frederking; Seth A. Tucker Opposing Theory: The False Promise of International Institutions John J. Mearsheimer Summary: Rule-oriented constructivism is built on an interpretive method called dialogical analysis. Dialogical analysis models a linguistic conception of social interaction capable of illustrating constructivist arguments. It assumes the existence of constitutive social rules and communicatively rational agents constructing those social rules through the performance of speech acts. Building on the rule-oriented constructivism, the author posits four social arrangements constituting the security structures on world politics: war, rivalry, collective security, and security community. The dominant post-cold war global security trend is the gradual construction of collective security rules and September 11 did not fundamentally change the exiting world political order; instead, it exacerbated it. Moreover, the Kosovo and Iraq wars are embedded in collective security social arrangement. Q1: Can dialogical analysis effectively explain the international relations? Frederking: Yes. Dialogical analysis models a linguistic conception of social interaction capable of illustrating constructivist arguments. It assumes the existence of constitutive social rules and communicatively rational agents constructing those social rules through the performance of speech acts. The development of interpretive methods like dialogical analysis is important if we are to move beyond epistemological debates between advocates of Science and advocates of AntiScience. (p. 363) Duffy and Tucker: Yes. … It [dialogical analysis] combines linguistics analyses of the discourse contents, argument analyses of parties’ moves and countermoves in this discourse, and logical deductions to test counterfactual hypothesis. By tacking between the negotiation discourse and the (empirically supported) background assumptions that make that discourse comprehensible, dialogical analysis progressively elaborate deeper and more refined understandings of the interaction, … (p. 290) Q2: Does dialogical analysis reflect the existence and importance of social structures such as norms, beliefs, and identities? Frederking: Yes. Dialogical analysis helps make the speech acts constructing post-cold war security intelligible by showing those acts to be logically consistent with the social rules-beliefs, norms, identities-constituting global security structures. (p. 376) Duffy and Tucker: Yes. Game theory provides a powerful set of formal tools for explaining political interactions. Yet the formality of game models sometimes limits their empirical application. Contextual factors generally held exogenous to game models may prove decisive for outcomes. These factors include actors’ belief about the nature of the interaction, their beliefs about other actors’ beliefs, and the means by which actors convey and infer intentions to and from one another. Scholars concerned with the role of norms, beliefs, and identities in social interaction (e.g., constructivists, cognitivists, negotiation theorists, diplomatic historians) could benefit from a model of social interaction that captures these contextual factors. (p. 271) Q3: Are the existence and development of social arrangement rules characterized by multilateralism? Frederking: Yes. Social rules are constantly negotiated and mediated through the actions of many agents. Whether future global security rules are constituted by collective security rules or war rules is always being negotiated and renegotiated. (p. 376) Duffy and Tucker: Yes. They [the INF negotiations] consisted of intentional exchanges of intent as the parties progressively elaborated a largely mutual context that promoted the mutual intelligibility of their utterances. On the constructivist account of global politics, the substantive commitments that accompany such an interaction constitute a regime. If so, then the INF language game helped to transform that regime and, with it, world history. (p. 291) Q4: Are state’s behavior and action determined by the nature of shared understanding regarding norms and identity, rather than materialist concept such as military capability? Frederking: Yes. Norms are shared understandings of appropriate action. Norms guide action and make action possible, enabling agents to criticize assertions and justify actions…. Identities tell agents who they are and who other are; they enable agents to make the actions of themselves and others intelligible… interests stems from a particular, constructed representation of the relationship between self and other… material structures have meanings for human agents only within the context of social rules. For example, a state’s military capability has different meanings depending on whether it belongs to an ally or an enemy. (p. 365) S. D.: Yes. Why are Iraq, Iran, and North Korea dangerous to America? Table 1: The World’s Nuclear Arsenals Country Suspected Strategic Nuclear Weapon China France India Israel Pakistan Russia United Kingdom United States 250 350 60 100-200 24-48 ~6000 180 8,646 Suspected NonStrategic Nuclear Weapons 120 0 ? ? ? ~ 4000 5 2,010 Source: CDI: Nuclear Issue. Last updated February 4, 2003 http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukearsenals.cfm Iraq: 0 (Jehl, 2004) Iran: 0 (Smith, 2004) North Korea: 1 - 8 (Edward qtd. in excerpts in New York Times) Table 2: Military Budget (1995) Country Military Budget (in Billion) China $29 France $41 India $8 Israel $7 Pakistan $4 Russia $63 United Kingdom $35 United States $254 Iraq $3 Iran $2 North Korea $6 Prepared by Center For Defense Information. Sources: IISS, DOD, CDI http://www.cdi.org/dm/dm/images/country.gif Suspected Total Number of Nuclear Weapons 400 350 60+? 200+? 24-48 ~10,000 185 10,656 Q5: Are the international involvement, legitimacy, and justification ground important in institutionalizing the collective security arrangement? Frederking: Yes. Collective security orients agents to act with a sense of duty to generate rules of peaceful behavior and punish those who break the rules. Through the explosion of multilateral treaties, Security Council resolutions, UN peacekeeping missions, and nongovernmental organizations, agents have been slowly institutionalizing a global collective security arrangement in the postcold-war world… A collective security enforcement may enforce only the rule of state sovereignty, or it could enforce rules regarding weapon of proliferation, terrorism, human rights, and so on. (p.368) S.D.: Yes. Kosovo war is embedded in collective security. NATO spokesman Jamie Shea: Serb forces were holding 700 Kosovo-Albanian boys prisoner, using them as “blood banks” for injured troops, and using Kosovo Albanians as human shields, forcing them to stand in front of Serb tanks for two days, and upwards of 100,000 Albanian men of fighting age were unaccounted for in Kosovo, more than 3,500 had been executed. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/324173.stm With a NATO cease-fire in place, the U.N. Security Council gave its backing Thursday on a NATO-led force that will enter Yugoslavia as peacekeepers while Yugoslav troops withdraw from Kosovo… As the cease-fire was announced, the vanguard of a 50,000- strong peacekeeping force – dubbed KFOR – prepared to move into Kosovo. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9906/10/kosovo.05/ 4/20/99 06/10/99 The U.N. war crime tribunal indicted the former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic and his four aides: the president of Serbia, the Yugoslav deputy premier, Serbia’s interior minister, and the head of Yugoslav army. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9906/03/kosovo.peace.06/ 5/27/99 Q6: Can it be assumed that in war social rule, state’s sovereignty is not recognized and its survival is determined by military capability? Frederking: Yes. In war, agents identify each other as enemies (rule 1), perhaps even an enemy that threatens their existence. Agents do not recognize the autonomy of others or perhaps even the right of others to exist (rule 2). Survival demands a military capability greater than one’s immediate enemies (rule 3) because the military capabilities of others are interpreted as a threat to one’s existence. The directive rule in war is to surrender (rule 4), supported by the commitment to attack until the other does surrender (rule 5). Because others are enemies with the military capability to threaten one’s existence, the use of force is considered inevitable, necessary, and appropriate (rule 6). S.D.: Yes. At dawn of World War II, Japan invaded Manchuria and Germany acquired Czechoslovakia and Poland respectively by force. During the course of the war, nine formerly independent states had submitted to the domination of Berlin in various guises, ranging from outright annexation in the case of Austria to a fictitious independence in the case of the Vichy regime in France. The remaining nations of the continent had become either military allies or economic vassals of Germany except Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden that managed to cling to precarious neutrality. In Asia, the Western colonial possessions such as Singapore, the Philippines, Malaya, Indochina, most of the Dutch East Indies, and Burma had come under Japanese military occupation, while Thailand became the subservient client state of Tokyo. The war was brought to an end when the ally army captured Berlin and two nuclear bombs were dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki of Japan, forcing Germany and Japan unconditionally surrender to the U.S. and ally force. (Keylor, 2001:137247) Q7: Is the international security system constituted by the rules of social arrangement? Frederking: Yes. These social arrangements [war, rivalry, collective security, security community] constitute global security in the way that the rules of chess constitute chess; participants use them to “go on” and act in intelligible ways. Sometimes one social arrangement is more institutionalized than the others; sometimes the social arrangements are more institutionalized in different geographical areas. (p.367) Mearsheimer: No. The international system is portrayed as a brutal arena where states look for opportunities to take advantage of each other, and therefore have little reason to trust each other. Daily life is essentially a struggle for power, where each state strives not only to be the most powerful actor in the system, but also to ensure that no other state achieves that lofty position. (p. 9) Q8: Are genuine cooperation and global peace feasible in the international politics? Frederking: Yes. In security communities, agents identify each other as friends committed to the peaceful resolution of conflict (rule1). Agents in security communities have a strong consensus about the obligation to follow the rules of their community (rule 2) and they engage in peaceful, multilateral decision making to ensure security through political relationships (rule 3). The directive rule to follow the rules of community does exist in security communities (rule 4), but enforcement does not include the possibility of force (rule5 and 6). (p. 368-9) Mearsheimer: No. Genuine peace, or a world where states do not compete for power, is not likely... state inherently possess some offensive military capability, which gives them the wherewithal to hurt and possibly to destroy each other. States are potentially dangerous to each other. A state’s military power is usually identified with the particular weaponry at its disposal, although even if there were no weapons, the individuals of a state could still use their feet and hands to attack the population of another state…state can never be certain about the intention of other states. Specifically, no state can be certain another state will not use its offensive military capability against the first… they may miscalculate from time to time because they operate in a world of imperfect information, where potential adversaries have incentives to misrepresent their own strength or weakness and to conceal their true aims. (p. 9-10) Q9: Is the relationship between agents and social structures a two-way relationship? Frederking: Yes … agents and structures construct each other. Rules make agents and agents make rules. The (social) world is made by people, who in turn are made by that (social) world. (p. 364) Mearsheimer: No … those rules reflect state calculations of self-interest based primarily on the international distribution of power. The most powerful states in the system create and shape institutions so that they can maintain their share of world power, or even increase it. In this view, institutions are essentially “arenas for acting out power relationships.” … In short, the balance of power is the independent variable that explains war; institutions are merely an intervening variable in the process. (p. 13) Q10: Is it likely that state’s self-interest and freedom of actions are limited by the shared responsibility? Frederking: Yes. In collective security arrangements, agents [states] are citizens whose sovereignty is limited by obligation to follow community rules and to use multilateral military force to ensure compliance with those rules. (p. 369) O.D.: No. Table 3: Wars 1990-2002 Countries Type of war United Kingdom Site of war War began Interstate clashes Regional civil war Iraq 1998 Northern Ireland 1969 Interstate war Kuwait / Iraq 1991 Intervention in Sierra Leon 2000 Combat status 2002 Continuing Suspended by agreement 1994 Suspended by agreement 1991 Withdrew United States Sierra Leon Intervention in Afghanistan Interstate clashes Interstate war Afghanistan 2001 2001 Continuing Iraq 1998 Continuing Kuwait / Iraq 1991 Interstate war Yugoslavia 1999 Intervention in Afghanistan Afghanistan 2001 Suspended by agreement 1991 Suspended by agreement 1999 Continuing (Smith, Dan. 2003) Q11: Can the types of social rules be detected by looking at the validity claims that the disputing parties assert and challenge? Frederking: Yes. In the post-cold war construction of collective security, the meaning of the use of force is defined by how agents understand the act. How will the international community interpret the use of force? Does it invoke collective security rules or war rules? In both the Kosovo and Iraq debates, both sides asserted the validity of collective security rules but differed on whether U.S. use of force actually invoked those rules. (p. 376) O. D.: No. Iraq war is not embedded in collective security rule. Charles A. Duelfer: Mr. Hussein ended his nuclear program in 1991, and there was no evidence he tried to restart it… Activities at a storage depot cited by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell at the United Nations Security Council were not related to chemical weapons… Iraq’s last banned weapons facility, a biological weapons plant called Al Hakam, was destroyed in 1996. (qtd. in Jehl, 2004) Amnesty International has said the terms of the Iraqi special tribunal needed to be changed. The statute, it said, did not prevent arbitrary arrest or the torture of detainees to extract confessions. It also suggested there was a lack of expertise among Iraqi judges in tackling cases involving human rights and crimes against humanity. Other human rights groups noted there is no requirement for proof beyond a reasonable doubt. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0702-02.htm 08/02/04 Q12: Can it be assumed that the global security rule is unlikely to be changed by single event such as a terrorist one? Frederking: Yes. … a terrorist event, even a horrific one, cannot automatically change the rules of global security. Even U.S. foreign policy, although tremendously important, cannot unilaterally construct a war social arrangement through declarations of a “war on terrorism” or even by invading Iraq. (p. 376) O.D.: No The Pearl Harbor attack Second World War Nagasaki. (Keylor, 2001) September 11 events U.S. declared war on terrorism Grand strategy Shatter old world order New world order: rivalry or war? Albania Algeria Afghanistan Azerbaijan Australia Austria Bahrain Bangladesh Belgium Bosnia Egypt Eritrea France Germany India Countries Where Al Qaeda Has Operated Iran Saudi Arabia Ireland Somalia Italy South Africa Jordan Sudan Kenya Switzerland Kosovo Tajikistan Lebanon Tanzania Libya Tunisia Malaysia Turkey Mauritania Uganda Netherlands United Arab Emirates Pakistan United Kingdom Philippines United States Qatar Uzbekistan Russia Yemen http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/terrornet/12.htm American full-fledged intervention in the two nuclear bombs dropped in Hiroshima and 10/8/2004 Jorge Castaneda, Mexico’s former foreign Minister: The change came with the Sep. 11 attacks. My sense is that Mr. Bush lost and never regained the gift he had shown for making you feel at ease. He became aloof, brusque, and on occasion abrasive. The brusqueness had a clear message: the United States is at war, it needs everybody’s support and that support is not negotiable. (quoted in Cohen, 2004) Between 1985 and 2000 US military spending decreased. Since 11 September 2001 it has increased dramatically, and is projected to rise by about 12 percent annually. By 2003 US military spending will be 40 percent of the world total, and equal to the next 15 largest defense budget combined. (Smith, 2003) The continuing growth of unilateralism in US public opinions and its policy after 11 September On the question of whether in responding to international crises the United States should or should not take action alone if it does not have the support of its allies, the proportion saying the United States should take action alone, rose from 21% in 1998 to 34% in 2002. Even though a clear majority (61%) says the United States should not take action alone, this number is down from 72% in 1998. http://www.worldview.org/.../graphs/Chap4_1.gif - US withdrawal from ABM treaty in 2001 - US rejection of Kyoto protocol on Global Warming - UN-unauthorized wars in Afghanistan and Iraq References: Cohen, Royer; David E. Sanger and Steven R. Weisman. 2004. “Challenging Rest of the World With a New Order.” New York Times CLIV… 53,000, October 12. Duffy, Gavan, Brian K. Frederking, Seth A. Tucker. 1998. “Language Game: Dialogical Analysis of INF Negotiations.” International Studies Quarterly 42, (2): 271-293. Edward, John qtd. in “ Excerpts From the Debate Between the Vice Presidential Candidates in Cleveland.” 2004. New York Times CLIV…, 52, 994, October 6. Frederking, Brian. 2003. “Constructing Post-Cold War Collective Security.” American political science review 97, 3: 363-378. Jehl, Douglas. 2004. “U.S. Report Finds Iraqis Eliminated Illicit Arms in 90’s.” New York Times CLIV…, 52,995, October 7. Keylor, William R. 2001. “The Twentieth – Century World” An International History.” Oxford University Press. Mearsheimer, John J. 1994-1995. “The Fall Promise of International Institutions.” International security 19, 3: 5-49. Smith, Craig S. 2004. “Iran Moves Toward Enriching Uranium.” New York Times CLIV…, 52,980, September 22. Smith, Dan. 2003. “The Penguin Atlas of War and Peace.” Penguin Group, New York. Tyler, Patrick E. 2004. “The reach of war: Diplomacy: U.N. Chief Ignites Firestorm By Calling Iraq War ‘illegal’.” New York Times. September 18