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CLIMATE DIAGNOSTIC
BULLETIN FOR AFRICA
N° 3
March 2014
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE
MONITORING
&
PREDICTION
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1
SUMMARY MARCH 2014
In February 2014, above normal to well above normal precipitations over the Gabon, Congo, DRC, Rwanda,
Uganda, western Kenya, Angola, Zambia, Tanzania, Lesotho, central South Africa and Madagascar. This
situation caused flood over Rwanda. Well below normal precipitations were observed over northern Africa
counties, Sahel, GoG, southwest Namibia and South Africa.
From January-February-March 2014, Well above normal precipitations were observed over southern
Nigeria, border between CAR and DRC and border border between Namibia and Botswana. Well below
normal rainfalls were observed over northern Ethiopia, Djibouti and bordering areas of Ethiopia, Kenya
and Uganda.
Positive temperature anomalies in March, 2014 greater than 20k were observed over northeast Egypt and
border between Egypt and Sudan. Negative anomalies of about 2°C were observed over southern border
Mauritania and Mali, central Namibia, Mozambique and Madagascar.
However, positive Seasonal temperature anomalies ranging between 1.5 and above 3.5 in for JanuaryFebruary-March 2014 were observed over central Mauritania, northern Algeria, northeast Mali, eastern
Niger, northern Burkina Faso and Nigeria, and border between Sudan and Egypt. Negative anomalies of
about 2°C were observed over central Namibia.
Below average precipitation is very likely over coastal zone of Gulf of Guinea area from April to June 2014.
Above average near surface air temperature is very likely over most much of Algeria, Tunisia, western
Libya, northern Niger and northwestern Chad from April to June 2014.
1. SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR MARCH 2014
This section shows the intensity of pressure centers, the circulation and its anomalies at 850 hPa, the wind
direction and speed in the middle and higher levels, thermal regimes at upper high level, relative humidity
at 850hPa and 700 hPa levels, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation
(ENSO).
1.1 Pressure Centres:
Figure 1 below states the locations and status of the surface pressure systems:

The Azores high of 1026 hPa weakened by 2hPa compared to the previous month. The centre
was located at about 32ºN/29ºW over North Atlantic Ocean.

St. Helena high of 1026 hPa strengthened by 5hPa compared to the previous month. The centre
was located at about 34ºS/12°W over South Atlantic Ocean.

Mascarene high of 1022 hPa strengthened by 2hPa compared to the previous month. Its centre
was located at about 35ºS/96ºE over southern Indian Ocean.

The Thermal Low of 998 1007 hPa filled weakened by 2hPa compared to the previous month. Its
centre was located at 11°N/18°E over Chad.
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Figure 1b : Anomaly sea level pressur March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
Figure 1a: Mean sea level pressure March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
1.2 Wind Anomalies (m/s) at 850hPa
Figure 2 below shows the Wind anomalies at 850 hPa level
The strong westerly wind anomalies with speed
greater or equal to (≥ 4m/s) observed over south
to central Niger, bordering with Mali, Chad
across border with Sudan and southern
Mozambique.
Figure 2: Wind anomalies (m/s) at 850 hPa March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
1.2 Thermal Index (TI) at 300 hPa
The Thermal Index at 300 hPa level (figure 3a) for the month of March had isotherm value of 242°K over
southern part of GoGs countries, central African countries, most part of eastern African countries extending
over northern and southern African countries with peak of 243°K over Gabon and western Zambia
expected over Lesotho and South Africa.
The figure 3b shows temperature negative anomalies between -4.5 to -0.5°K over the bordering areas of
Algeria-Morocco-Mauritania-Mali-Libya while where positive anomalies (0.5 to 4.0°k) were observed over
the rest of the continent.
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Figure 3a : Thermal Index at 300hPa March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
Figure 3b : TI Anomaly at 300hPa March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
1.3 Relative Humidity (RH) at 850 hPa
The high RH (≥60%) at 850 hPa (figure 4a), was observed during the month of March 2014 over northern
border of Morocco-Algeria-Tunisia, southern part of GoGs countries, central African counties, most part of
eastern African countries and southern African countries except over Sudan, Eretria, eastern Somalia, border
area between Namibia and western South Africa.
The RH values were greater than the mean 2002-2011 over most of the continent except Morocco
bordering areas with Mauritanian-Algeria-Tunisia, Gambia, southern Mali border areas with SenegalGuinea-Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana-Burkina Faso, border areas of Sudan- Eretria-Ethiopia, eastern Somalia,
Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, western Angola, southeast South Africa and Madagascar where negative
anomalies were observed (Figure 4b).
Figure 4a : Relative humidity at 850hPa March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
Figure 4b : Relative humidity anomaly at 850hPa March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
1.4 Relative Humidity at 700 hPa
The high RH values (≥60%) in figure 5a, were observed over southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, central
Africa Republic, eastern and southern African countries. The regions with RH ≥60% were very favorable for
deep convection that generated heavy precipitation with high impact.
The RH values in figure 5b were above less than the normal (2002-2011) over most of the continent except
over GoG countries, western of the Sahel, North Africa, northwest central Africa countries, northeast and
southeast Africa parts no the border between Niger and Nigeria, bordering areas of Chad-CAR-Sudan85, Avenue des Ministères BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
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Ethiopia-Somalia-Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda-Burundi-DRC-Zambia-Tanzania-Angola-Namibia-Botswanasouthern South Africa and Lesotho where RH values were less than the normal (2002-2011).
Figure 5a: Relative humidity at 700hPa March 2014.
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
Figure 5b: Relative humidity anomaly at 700hPa March 2014.
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
1.5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Neutral to cool conditions were observed over the Equatorial Pacific. Warm conditions persisted over North
Atlantic Ocean at the coastal zone of central Africa, whereby moderate to cool conditions prevailed over the
north. The SST in the Mediterranean Sea observed warm and neutral conditions, while neutral to positive
anomalies exist over the southern and equatorial part of the Indian Ocean with neutral to cool conditions
over the north. Neutral to warm conditions persisted over South Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 6: Sea Surface Temperature August 2013 (source: IRI)
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2. CLIMATOLOGICAL SITUATION AND IMPACTS DURING FEBRUARY 2014
This section states the general climatological situation and its impact covering two major parameters, the
temperature and precipitation.
2.1 Precipitation
2.1.1
Monthly Precipitation
The precipitations for the month of February, 2014 (Fig. 7a) showed above normal to well above normal
precipitations over the Gabon, Congo, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, western Kenya, Angola, Zambia, Tanzania,
Lesotho, central South Africa and Madagascar. This situation caused flood over Burundi. Well below normal
precipitations were observed over northern Africa counties, Sahel, GoG, southwest Namibia and South
Africa.
2.1.2 Seasonal Precipitation
Figure 7b indicates seasonal precipitation in percentage (January-February-March 2014). Well above normal
precipitations were observed over southern Nigeria, border between CAR and DRC and border border
between Namibia and Botswana. Well below normal rainfall was observed over eastern/northern Ethiopia,
Djibouti and bordering areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.
Figure 7a : Monthly Precipitation in percentage for March 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
Figure 7b : Seasonal Precipitation for JFM 2014
(Source : NOAA/NCEP)
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2.2
Surface Temperature
2.2.1 Monthly Temperature Anomalies
Positive temperature anomalies in
March, 2014 (figure 8) greater than 20k
were observed over northeast Egypt
and border between Egypt and Sudan.
Negative anomalies of about 2°C were
observed over southern border of
Mauritania and Mali, central Namibia,
with peaks over southern Mozambique
and central Madagascar.
Figure 8 : Temperature anomaly March
2014, (Source : NOAA/NCEP)
2.2.2 Seasonal Temperature Anomalies
Seasonal
temperature
anomalies
ranging between 1.5°C and above for
January-February-March 2014 were
observed over central Mauritania,
northern Algeria, northeast Mali,
eastern Niger, northern Burkina Faso
and Nigeria, and border between Sudan
and Egypt. Negative anomalies of about
2°C were observed over central
Namibia.
Figure 8 : Seasonal temperature anomaly JFM
2013-2014, (Source : NOAA/NCEP)
3. OUTLOOK
Figure 9 and 10 shows Predicted Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and the future
characteristics of ENSO. The precipitation outlook for the coming month is also provided.
3.1 El Niño/La Niña
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Figure 10 shows the forecast of dynamic
and statistical models over Niño 3.4 (5°N–
5°S, 120°W–170°W).
In mid-March 2014, majority of the
dynamic and statistical models predicted
warm northern Oscillation (ENSO)
situation for April-May-June 2014.
Figure 10 : Ensemble multi model forecast
March 2014 (Source : IRI)
3.2 Seasonal Precipitations forecast issued on March 2014 for the period AMJ 2014
For April, May and June (AMJ) 2014 (figure :
11)
Below average precipitation is very likely
over coast of Gulf Guinea area from April to
June 2014.
Figure 11 : Seasonal precipitation forecast for AMJ
3.3 Seasonal temperature forecast issued on March 2014 for the period AMJ 2014
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SEASONAL 2M TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2014
ISSUED ON MARCH 26, 2014
The following outlook has been issued for
April, May and June (AMJ) 2014.
40
40
20
30
20
Above average near surface air temperature
is very likely over most much of Algeria,
Tunisia, western Libya, northern Niger and
northwestern Chad from April to June, 2014.
10
0
50
30
20
-10
-20
20
40
40
-30
-40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Figure 12: Temperature forecast for April-May-June 2014.
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