Risks to Murray-Darling Basin Water Resources Program
Project Summaries
Project code:
CD2C
Project title:
Potential Water Quantity and Quality Impacts in the Murray-Darling
Basin from Communities and Industries Responding to Climate Change
Project timeline:
March – October 2010
Contractors:
Centre for Water Economics, Environment and Policy, Australian
National University
Report Authors:
Quentin Grafton (ANU), Chris Miller (Flinders University), William
Nikolakis (ANU), Fiona Verity (Flinders University)
Project objectives:
The objective of this project is to prepare a full synthesis report on the potential direct effects of climate
change on the MDB’s people, communities and industries. This should include:
1. the impact of climate change on people and communities in terms of demographic characteristics,
community viability and resilience, community vulnerability and adaptive capacity, cultural
values, social cohesiveness and capital, and economic development including public
infrastructure;
2. the impact of climate change on people and industries including agriculture (irrigated and
dryland), forestry, aquaculture, food and fibre processing and value adding, construction,
transport, tourism, and public and private sector service provision;
3. examine these in 3 regions/communities dependent on water supplies beyond those used for
human consumption, and three non water-dependent regions/communities; and
4. consider potential impacts on, and any particular needs of, indigenous communities within the
Basin.
Methods:
The methods employed in the various parts of the study differ. Quantitative modelling is used to
provide a comparison of what may happen to key industries under different climate change scenarios.
These results provide a reference point for the use of social methods to engage with communities to
understand their willingness and ability to adapt, and what may be constraining their adaptation. This
engagement involved community facilitations in six communities as well as interviews with 30
Indigenous community leaders across the Basin.
The authors clearly state what they define ‘adaptation’ to be and how ‘climate adaptation’ represents
the individual, business and community responses to climate change. This is important, as the
quantitative and qualitative information that is provided focuses on the ability of people to respond to
changes as determined by their ‘adaptation capacity’. The capacity to adapt depends on multiple
forms of capital (human, social, natural, physical and financial), that varies over time. The authors
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CD2C Project Summary
also highlight the importance of understanding that an individual’s or community’s adaptive capacity
represents the potential to respond to change, but that the actual responses may be less than what is
possible depending on institutional constraints, lack of information, or policies that promote existing
practices and activities that are ill-suited to a changed climate.
The quantitative and qualitative methods employed by the research team are described in detail in the
Final Report and are replicable. Together, the modelling of industry impacts and the community
engagements provide a sound basis for longitudinal research and guidance for the MDBA in terms of
its role in managing and responding to climate risk in Basin communities.
Summary of key results:
Three reports are provided for this project - a detailed Final Report, Literature Review and Summary
Report. The Summary Report is excellent and much of what it contains is repeated here. For more
detail the other two Reports are good references, with the Literature Review providing an overview of
the theories and ideas around ‘climate adaptation’, predicted climate driven changes in the MDB, and
the likely impacts this will have on different parts of the Basin, industries and communities. The
overall results of the work are organised against three objectives as follows:
1.
a quantitative analysis of the possible effects on dryland (wheat yields and dryland property
values) and irrigated agriculture (water use, net profits, land use and employment) under
various climate-change scenarios based on CSIRO sustainable yields regions and a Basinwide review of possible impacts on other industries (tourism and forestry);
Mathematical programming for irrigated agriculture and econometric techniques for dryland agriculture
were used to provide a picture of the exposure of regions and communities to climate change. The agreed
Risk Assessment Program portfolio climate change scenarios were used:

A ‘most favourable 2030 scenario’ that is based on a continuation of the long-term
(1895 to 2006) averages for rainfall and runoff across the MDB,

A ‘medium 2030 scenario’ that is based upon the medium global warming scenario and
associated rainfall and runoff described in the CSIRO report Water Availability in the
Murray–Darling Basin of October 2008, and

A ‘least favourable 2030 scenario’ that is based upon the actual climate of the MDB in
the period 1997–2006 (this includes 15% less rainfall and 50% less runoff in the
southern MDB when compared with the long-term average).
To these three was added one more:

A ‘driest 2030 scenario’ that is the water availability of the driest year in the least
favourable 2030 scenario.
Results showed that those industries most affected by climate change, such as agriculture, are already
adapting to a changing climate. The ability to trade water and appropriate price signals about water
scarcity has allowed many farmers to effectively respond to much-reduced water availability. Such
adaptation at a Basin scale, however, hides some large regional changes that have arisen due to the recent
drought. Relatively moderate changes Basin wide would be expected to occur except in the most
extreme, dry scenario for 2030. However, even moderate changes at a basin scale mask substantial
negative effects on some regions in the south of the Basin in an extreme, dry scenario. Some of these
regions are predicted to suffer large reductions in dryland property values and also profits and
employment in irrigated agriculture. In less extreme scenarios, including projections based on the 19972006 climate, the effects would be much less pronounced Basin-wide, and also regionally.
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CD2C Project Summary
Negative impacts of climate change are also likely to be regionally focused, especially in terms of
infrastructure-based tourism. It is possible that overall tourism impacts may be moderate in the Basin as a
whole, but some locations will likely suffer reduced visitation rates if there are major declines in the
quality of key assets such as lakes and wetlands. Policies to sequester carbon, if implemented, are likely
to increase the forest cover within the Basin. Should this occur, it will reduce end-of-catchment flows in
a substantial number of catchments, and across the Basin as a whole by as much as 19% by 2050. The
negative effects of afforestation suggest that owners of newly planted forests should be forced to acquire
water entitlements equal to the amount of the expected reductions in flows, so as to ‘internalise’ the cost
of their plantings in terms of water availability.
Overall, the results stress that some parts of the Basin, especially some of the upper and southern
catchments, are much more exposed to climate change impacts than others. The authors suggest that
regional/catchment based initiatives must complement any general, Basin-wide strategies to assist
exposed industries (agriculture, tourism and forestry) to autonomously adjust to climate change.
2.
Overviews of six (three water-dependent and three non-water-dependent) communities in the
Basin and outputs from facilitations and dialogues within these communities;
Using regional results from the dry extreme scenario series as a starting point, a set of community
facilitations and public forums were conducted in six Basin communities (Narrabri and Tamworth;
Shepparton and Euroa; Renmark and Pinnaroo). The consultations represented a dynamic, field-based
and replicable approach to understanding community options and challenges of climate change and
their possible responses. Indexes were used to describe the six communities that formed part of the
field research, and results showed substantial socio-economic and demographic differences across the
six communities. Of interest, was that although different in terms of the measurement indexes, the six
communities are much more similar in terms of their views and possible responses to climate change.
An important finding from this research was the overall low level of community adaptability and
resilience in relation to long-term climate change. Some factors contributing to this situation include a
depleted resource base in terms of social, human and financial capital (for example, losing young
people from regions) as well as a low level of trust in government and its agencies. There is also
prioritisation of what are perceived as immediate and pressing concerns, and insufficient agreement or
consensus that long-term climate change is an urgent issue demanding transformative change.
Sixteen key messages arise out of the consultation process, and many of these are repeated in the final
set of recommendations. The messages relate to adaptation responses, actions, capacities and
constraints. Of great importance is the first key message that found participants struggled to focus on
challenges of long-term climate change, with a sense of anxiety and resignation over pressing
demands that threaten their livelihoods. These immediate concerns, the authors argue, undermine
participant’s ability to consider longer term, proactive adaptation to climate change. Other messages
related to the need for greater leadership, co-ordination and improved communication between
institutions such as the MDBA, State and Regional organisations. To date, the Basin Plan consultation
process has not been well received and work is required to rebuild trust between the MDBA and the
Basin community it works within. Also significant is the final message that highlighted all is not
‘doom and gloom’, and that there are many ideas for adaptation within Basin communities that, if
properly tested and supported, could assist in community adjustment to climate change.
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CD2C Project Summary
3.
Evaluation of impacts and responses to climate change from a Basin-wide engagement with
key representatives from Indigenous communities
The Indigenous component of this study considered the potential impacts of climate change on, and
any particular needs of, Indigenous communities within the Basin. The 30 diverse Indigenous nations
of the MDB hold unique legal, customary, spiritual and economic rights and interests to water that are
recognised by some States and in national water reform. It is argued that Indigenous nations
themselves are best placed to manage and direct water to places of cultural significance, and to ensure
habitats have water in the right season for harvesting flora and fauna. The term ‘cultural flows’ is
increasingly being used to describe a water access entitlement owned by respective Indigenous nations
communally to further their objectives, be it spiritual or economic, ecological or social in nature.
This part of the research involved in-depth, semi-structured interviews with representatives from the
Murray Lower Darling River Indigenous Nations and the newly formed Northern Basin Aboriginal
Nations in April and May of 2010. These initial contacts were then used to access elders and other
individuals with authority and expertise on climate change in communities. In total, 30 Indigenous
people were interviewed across the northern and southern MDB with visits to leaders in Dubbo,
Albury, Brewarrina, Weilmoringle, Denniliquin, Sydney and Brisbane. Four findings from the
consultations are provided in the Summary Report:
i.
Communities have already dealt with variability in the environment and their culture, but are
troubled by anthropogenic-caused climate change. Climate change is seen as an added pressure
on weakened social and ecological resilience amongst Indigenous people in the MDB.
ii.
Indigenous participants view climate change as a threat to their way of life, culture and customary
aspirations, and are concerned about its impact on the movement of their people from traditional
lands.
iii.
Indigenous participants are concerned that their communities may be ignored in policy responses
and measures to deal with climate change. They also have a view of disempowerment among
their communities, and expressed their concern that their customary (non market) values are
overshadowed by economic imperatives.
iv.
Some Indigenous participants saw opportunities for climate change to enhance the value of
Indigenous observations and traditional ecological knowledge in dealing with impacts (such as the
creation of a “Cultural Flow” for water). Opportunities with climate change will likely require a
negotiation of the role of Indigenous people in adaptation and natural resources management.
Importantly, engaging Indigenous peoples on the effects of climate change and building awareness in
a meaningful and relevant way was seen as important to build adaptive capacity and support informed
consent among MDB Indigenous groups
Comparisons with other projects:
This project’s findings about the potential effects on water resources of extensive carbon sequestration
plantings are in general agreement with those of project CP1. This topic should be re-assessed if and
when the pricing of carbon becomes clearer.
The project also complements the work of CD1 that assessed responses to drought amongst different
stakeholder groups in the MDB with a view to providing insights into how communities will respond
to climate change and the introduction of the Basin Plan. Many of the views and opinions expressed
in the case studies and interviews in this project are mirrored by findings in CD1 which also undertook
extensive interviews.
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CD2C Project Summary
Knowledge gaps identified:
This work did not highlight specific ‘knowledge gaps’ but demonstrated the importance of looking to
the past to understand why things are happening the way they are in the present. There is a wealth of
knowledge about how to engage communities, build and foster adaptive capacity, and communicate in
meaningful and relevant ways. What this project has shown is that, unfortunately, the policy and
process pathways being used to ‘deliver’ the Basin Plan are failing to connect with the communities
they are impacting upon.
In terms of climate change, the findings in the report are consistent with work undertaken through
scoping work by the Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries (CCRSPI) consortium
work that found similar fears and anxiety about climate change in some industries, while less in others.
This is explored in detail in this Report and there is a lot of information that other organisations
working in related climate change initiatives would be very interested in accessing.
Implications for policy:
Based on the work undertaken through this project, the researchers provide several insights for the
MDBA in its possible future interventions. First and foremost is the finding that adaptation is not
simply about responding to external climate effects, but is about supporting individuals and
communities in their responses to a range of shocks, anticipated and otherwise. Future engagement by
the MDBA will be most needed in the southern and upper catchments of the Basin that face greater
exposure to climate change. The nature of this engagement must focus on rebuilding trust, delivering
a clear, co-ordinated and consistent message about what is required and which organisations are
available to assist communities in adapting to change, and tailoring information and engagement
processes so that they are relevant and meaningful for the community concerned – a one size fits all
approach is inappropriate. Effective engagement by outside agencies such as the MDBA will require
support for processes that promote information exchange, knowledge creation, and actions across
multiple scales and stakeholders within and across communities.
To build community adaptive capacity, climate change needs to be seen as a whole of community
issue. This requires a process of on-going community engagement to include previously excluded
groups. Engagement should begin with current circumstances in communities, especially the levels of
individual, family and community stress. There is also a need to support current leadership from
different domains within each community and enable them to work better together. Adaptation
support, the authors suggest, should be underpinned by an evaluative research framework to ensure
that learning and good practice can be transferred elsewhere.
Recommended Communication Approach:
All three Reports (Final, Literature Review and Summary) should be made available on the MDBA
website with the content pages hotlinked. The Summary Report is worthy of professional editing and
production as it contains a great deal of interesting and insightful information. Ongoing dissemination
of the findings through workshops and other public fora would also be beneficial, ideally focusing on
policy audiences in the Federal, State and Regional scales discussed in the report.
There may also be opportunities for this work to be presented at forthcoming climate change events.
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CD2C Project Summary