REPORT of FIRST STAHY-IAHS Workshop “New Statistical Tools in Hydrology”
October 13-14, 2008 - Capri, Italy
The Workshop, included in the Symposium “The role of hydrology in water resource
management“, was characterized by 15 oral contributions and 21 posters (listed at the end of the
report).
Each contribution had available 20 minutes while poster contributions had 3 minutes of oral
introduction.
All the authors showed interesting presentations underlined by a rich discussion.
Among several topics, particularly interesting appeared to be the speculation on climate change
where Demetris Koutsoyiannis explained the critical role of statistical approaches that should be
used in identifying the stationarity of the series and the long persistence. His suggestion to apply
non-static statistics (Kolmogorov-Hurst-Statistics) to analyze possible effects of climate change on
meteorological and hydrological time series seems to be of great importance for the ongoing
discussions in this field. The many facets of hydrological applications of statistics and the
innovative character of hydrological research in this field became especially evident in two
contributions: Simon-Michael Papalexiou introduced a new distribution for IDF curves and Alberto
Montanari described the uncertainty of hydrological forecasting proposing a procedure to identify
the distribution of errors. Many other presenters showed interesting applications using e.g. copula
functions and others sophisticated methods. The applications were dedicated to regionalization,
inference procedures on distribution functions useful for hydrological applications, multifractal
measures, bayesian and bootstrap approaches.
A video with the presentation of the first day and some picture of the oral session of the second
day are available on the website: www.stahy.org .
At the end of the workshop was planned a meeting in order to fix details of future activities of the
working group.
Among participants (around 25) there were the following IAHS bureau officers:
Andreas Schumann, Demetris Koutsoyiannis and Salvatore Grimaldi
During the meeting were approved the following initiatives:
- Short course “Copula Function: Theory and practice” Columbia University, Polytechnic Institute of
New York Universities, New York City, July, 18-25 2009;
- next official STAHY Workshop that will be held in May 2009 in Catania organized by Antonio
Cancelliere;
- to include in the STAHY website activities the following topics identifying also some people
responsible for collecting materials:
Copula (Salvatore Grimaldi, Francesco Serinaldi, Tomas Bacigal, Emna Gargouri)
Time Series Linear Modelling (Marcella Corduas, Antonio Cancelliere)
Distibution Function (Francesco Laio, Ronald van Nooijen, Alla Kolechkina Mauro Naghettini,
Iwona Markiewicz, Valerio Noto).
All people present the meeting gave their availability to help the Working Group in the webportal
creation.
All people present at meeting hope also that other scientists that have already given their
availability to the Working Group, but not present in Capri, will actively contribute to STAHY
activities proposed and approve during the meeting.
Capri, October 15, 2008
Salvatore Grimaldi
Andreas Schumann
LIST of oral and poster contributions
Opening Lecture
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
“From climate certainties to climate stochastics”
THE USE OF MODEL SELECTION TECHNIQUES FOR IMPROVING DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION
Francesco Laio, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Alberto Montanari
ON SEASONAL APPROACH TO NONSTATIONARY FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
Witold Strupczewski, Krzysztof Kochanek, Wojciech Feluch, Stanislaw Weglarczyk, Vijay P. Singh
FITTING THE GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION ON ROUNDED-OFF RAINFALL TIME SERIES
Roberto Deidda, Michelangelo Puliga
DISPERSION MEASURES FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
Iwona Markiewicz, Witold Gustaw Strupczewski
ONE WAY OF MODELLING NON-EXCHANGEABLE RANDOM VARIABLES
Tomáš Bacigál, Radko Mesiar
SHOULD PARAMETRIC OR NON-PARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP BE PREFERRED FOR ESTIMATING
UNCERTAINTIES IN EXTREME VALUE MODELS?
Jan Kysely, Jan Picek
INVESTIGATION WITH KENDALL- PLOTS AND REGIONALIZATION OF INFILTRATION INDEX –
MAXIMUM RAINFALL INTENSITY RELATION BY KENDALL’S TAU
Emna Ellouze-Gargouri, Zoubeida Bargaoui
COMPARISON OF REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS APPROACHES BASED ON L-CV CONFIDENCE
INTERVALS
Alberto Viglione
ANALYSIS OF A REGIONAL SYSTEM OF RIVER FLOWS BASED ON COORDINATED APPLICATION
OF VARIOUS CLASSES OF MODELLING PROCEDURES.
Magdalena Komornikova, JOZEF KOMORNÍK, Danuša Szökeová
IMPROVED MOMENT-SCALING ESTIMATION FOR STATIONARY MULTIFRACTAL MEASURES
Pierluigi Furcolo, Daniele Veneziano
SPACE-TIME MODELLING OF HOURLY PRECIPITATION USING AN ALTERNATING RENEWAL
MODEL WITH MULTI-SITE POSTERIOR RESAMPLING FOR DERIVED FLOOD FREQUENCY
ANALYSIS
Uwe Haberlandt, Anna-Dorothea Ebner von Eschenbach, Imke Buchwald
UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT IN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING THROUGH A STATISTICAL
APPROACH
Alberto Montanari, Giovanna Grossi
ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF INLAND FLOODING IN A TIDAL SLUICE REGULATED CACHMENT
USING MULTI-VARIATE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
Dan Rosbjerg, Maria Antonia Sunyer Pinya, Henrik Madsen
AN ATTEMPT TO RECONCILE THE PMF CONCEPT AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS THROUGH
THE JOINT USE OF NON-SYSTEMATIC FLOOD INFORMATION AND AN UPPER-BOUNDED
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, WITHIN A BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK.
Wilson dos Santos Fernandes , Mauro Naghettin, Rosângela Helena Loschi
POSTERS
THE USE OF CLASSICAL EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN PROCEDURES FOR COMPARING HYDROLOGICAL
MODELS
Robin Clarke
ESTIMATING AND REPORTING MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN DISCHARGE AND WATER
QUALITY DATA
Daren Harmel, Doug Smith, Kevin King, Raymond Slade
GLUE BUGS
Francesco Viola, Valerio Leonardo Noto, Marcella Cannarozzo
SUBDEFINITE COMPUTATIONAL MODELS AS A NEW TOOL FOR HYDROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
Vladimir Tarasevich
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES FOR TOTAL RISK CALCULATION FOR GROUPS OF SITES
Boris Gartsman, Ronald van Nooijen, Alla Kolechkina
ANNUAL RUNOFF FREQUENCY ANALYSIS IN SICILY
Marcella Cannarozzo, Leonardo Valerio Noto, Sergio Salemi, Francesco Viola
ESTIMATING EXTREME FLOODS OF LOW PROBABILITIES BY A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF FORMATION COMBINED WITH A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR
Lev Kuchment Gelfan Alexander
AN ALGORITHM TO FIT GIVEN SITES INTO INTUITIVELY DETERMINED MAXIMUM RUN-OFF
CATEGORIES
Ronald van Nooijen, Tatiana Gubareva, Alla Kolechkina
PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF RAINFALL INTENSITY AT MULTIPLE TIMESCALES
Simon-Michael Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis
PROBABILISTIC CRITERIA IN THE DIFFERENTIATED APPROACH FOR EARTHQUAKE SWARMS
TOMOGRAPHY: IMPLICATION FOR THE FAULT ZONE IN CENTRAL JAPAN.
Tatyana Smaglichenko
THE UNSAFETY OF THE SAFE YIELD: THE STUDY CASE OF NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL
José Nilson Campos, Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart, Juliana Pontes de Machado de
Andrade, Luís Fernando Neris
PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHT PROPERTIES THROUGH COPULAS
Francesco Serinaldi, Brunella Bonaccorso, Antonino Cancelliere, Salvatore Grimaldi
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTHERN EUROPE – MODERN AND
FUTURE CHANGES.
Lev Kitaev, Alexander Kislov
MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE PRECIPITATIONS EFFECTS
Dana Cristina Toncu, Alina Barbulescu
MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE PRECIPITATIONS EFFECTS
Alina Barbulescu
SIMULATION OF LONG-TERM CONTINUOUS RAINFALL-RUNOFF SERIES
Pavel Fošumpaur
UATSA: AN ACADEMIC SOFTWARE FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Julio Cañón Juan Valdes, Javier Gonzalez
TESTS ON TAIL INDEX
Jan Picek, Jana Jureckova
A HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL APPLIED TO THE DAILY SPRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE DANUBE
BASIN
Constantin Mares Ileana Mares, Heike Huebener, Mihaela Mihailescu, Ulrich Cubasch, Petre
Stanciu
ON THE VARIABILITY OF SHORT DURATION PRECIPITATIONS WITH ELEVATION
Paola Allamano, Pierluigi Claps, Francesco Laio
AQUAGRID: ONLINE PROBLEM SOLVING PLATFORM FOR GROUNDWATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT
Giuditta Lecca, Fabrizio Murgia, Riccardo Biddau, Luca Fanfan