Item 3.3 Atmospheric transport model products
Purpose
This document presents the progress made by the CBS Emergency Response Activities Coordination Group
(ERA-CG) with respect to its work plan adopted at the last CBS (Dec 2000). The ICT is invited to review
the document and consider aspects which require additional measures for coordination and implementation.
Prepared by Peter Chen, Chair ERA-CG; 16 May 2002.
Reference
a. CBS-XII Geneva, 29 November- 8 December 2000, abridged final report and recommendations; general
summary paragraphs 6.3.37 - 6.3.49 and Recommendation 6 (CBS-XII)
b. Final report of the CBS Meeting of the Emergency Response Activities Coordination Group,
Washington, 10-14 September 2001
(new page, core of document)
1.
Introduction
1.1
The designation of WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with activity specialization
in Atmospheric Transport Model Products for Emergency Response has been in existence for about a
decade. Today there are eight designated RSMCs (Bracknell, Toulouse, Washington, Montreal,
Melbourne, Tokyo, Obninsk, Beijing) that are operationally prepared to provide specialized atmospheric
dispersion model products to authorized requests. In addition, the RTH Offenbach provides the
telecommunications link for notification by the IAEA’s Emergency Preparedness and Response Unit
(EPRU) to the WMO Members. The RTH Offenbach receives messages from the ERPU and loads them on
to the GTS. This notification of the WMO is a provision of the UN Convention on Notification for Nuclear
Accidents and Radiological Emergencies. Various NMHSs have participated in discussions, training
sessions, and numerous exercises, to ensure operational procedures are known and understood to activate
and to receive the specialized products and to use them in their respective national emergency response
context. While the primary focus of these RSMCs have been to provide specialized products to support
nuclear emergency response, and organized to provide global coverage, these Centres have provided
support for other kinds of emergency responses based on atmospheric transport modelling technologies, e.g.
wildfires smoke dispersion, airborne volcanic ash and gases, airborne diseases, etc.
1.2
The role of RSMCs in providing atmospheric transport modelling products is foremost a
commitment of the WMO to the IAEA under two UN Conventions, for Notification and for Assistance for
Nuclear Accidents and Radiological Emergencies. More recently, technical cooperation is sought between
the WMO and the UN Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Organization (CTBTO), where an exchange of
observational data, and the provision of meteorological analyses and services are proposed, as well as
exploring the use of specialized atmospheric transport modelling tools for the CTBT Verification régime
(e.g. geo-location of source based on monitoring network data). An operational framework for this
cooperation is being explored. The ICAO participates in its interest in aircraft avoidance of airborne
hazards (e.g. volcanic ash, airborne radioactivity). More localized applications of atmospheric transport
models are also of interest (e.g. accidental spills of hazardous materials). The Emergency Response
Activities reinforce the elevated importance of operational meteorological systems and capabilities in 24/7,
real-time and time-critical applications for safety and security of citizens around the world.
1.3
The WMO Technical Note No. 778 is the single source of information with respect to the WMO
Emergency Response Activities. It contains background, definitions, regulatory materials for the
operational standards, procedures and forms, important scientific notes, and annexes that describe each of
the RSMCs. Updates and additions are encouraged and are incorporated from time to time. Each RSMCs
host Websites that contain a wide range of information on their respective activities.
1.4
The present ERA-CG is a standing expert group consisting of members representing each of the
RSMCs, RTH Offenbach, NMS (Kazakstan), the IAEA, the CTBTO, the ICAO, and the WMO Secretariat.
The collective operational capability of these RSMCs and the RTH under the present arrangements and
procedures is quite substantial, while some areas will require continuing attention to ensure that
preparedness and response are up to standards and expectations, for global coverage. At the same time,
RSMCs are encouraged to apply these specialized modelling tools and expertise to emerging areas of
applications and requirements.
1.5
The CG last met 10-14 September, 2001, in Washington, USA.
2. Current Activities
2.1
The key area of expertise and services associated with the Emergency Response Activities is that
of the basic operational atmospheric transport modelling capability for nuclear emergency response that is
provided on a request by a pre-designated requesting authority (Delegated Authority). The atmospheric
dispersion model products are the generated and sent to the pre-designated operational point at the NMS of
the requesting country. Numerous exercises or responses to real incidents help operational units to identify
weakness and to improve their ability to fulfill the RSMC commitments and as well bring forth
recommendations to clarify and to improve the procedures and standards associated with these specialized
services. The collaborating RSMCs that share responsibility for specific Regions are encouraged to
routinely exercise procedures that are prescribed for Joint Response. For example, for RA IV and RA V,
the RSMCs conduct monthly testing using hypothetical incident scenarios. It is encouraged that NMHS be
included to participate in organized exercises, whether they be limited, Regional, or Global.
2.2
The RTH Offenbach provides a telecommunications link for the relaying of IAEA notification
messages from their Emergency Preparedness and Response Unit (EPRU) to the WMO dissemination
system (GTS). An adjusted scheme has been proposed to accommodate a change in the IAEA notification
structure for nuclear emergencies, within the newly introduced Joint Radiation Emergency Management
Plan of the International Organization (IAEA, December, 2000). A limited test is planned in the late May
time frame to confirm that the new procedures are appropriate.
2.3
Since the first days for RSMC operations, the use of facsimile transmission is still the official
method for the distribution of specialized RSMC products. The RSMCs are exploring improved
distribution/access methods to share information, in particular the Web-based constructs and Internet
access, while recognizing the time-critical and in some instances security-sensitive nature of the data and
information that has to be protected. The use of Web-based approaches has been successfully demonstrated
and as a result the CG agreed to develop standards and a framework for improved operational exchange and
distribution of specialized products, with password protected access. While some RSMCs have adopted
this approach as the standing method for Joint Response, all RSMCs are encouraged to adopt the standards
and implement the Web access. This approach is seen also to potentially provide greater flexibility for
access to additional products, updated products, and standing products (e.g. in preparedness mode), as well
as meteorological analysis and forecast products that would assist in the interpretation of the associated
atmospheric transport model outputs. The next steps could include the option for NMSs to acquire the
standard products via the Internet.
2.4
National radioactivity monitoring data are often made available to the country’s NMHS, as a
matter of routine with in national plans and arrangements. Further work is needed to define ERA
requirements for acquiring and exchanging additional observations (meteorological and radiological) in the
event of a nuclear incident and to examine possible options for improving RSMC model predictions and
advice.
2.5
An information document was prepared by RSMC Melbourne on “The critical role played by the
NMHS in environmental emergency response from an Australian perspective.” (September, 2001). This
document describes how NMHS provide for general support functions as well as specialized services to
ensure efficient and effective response. The document will be incorporated into WMO Technical Note 778
on Emergency Response Activities.
2.6
While an organization-to-organization agreement is effectively established between the WMO and
the CTBTO (WMO EC: June 2001; CTBTO Preparatory Commission: November 2000), technical
discussions and activities continue to take place to explore areas of interest and requirements as well as a
framework for operational cooperation. In experimental mode, data collected at the CTBTO International
Monitoring Network are to be uplinked to the GTS, while global meteorological data sets are to be made
available to CTBTO. Atmospheric transport modelling techniques are being explored to understand better
both the capabilities and the requirements for the CTBT Verification Régime. A joint workshop is
proposed for October 2002. It is anticipated that meteorological support to the Treaty’s Major Program for
On-Site Inspection (OSI) will be a subject of joint discussion and exploration in the coming months.
2.7
While a number of NMCs have been designated as ICAO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres with
responsibilities which support aircraft operations, the volcanic ash hazard is also a concern of general public
safety. Few NMS provide specific public warnings of imminent volcanic ash hazards: Japan, the
Anchorage office of the US NWS have establish such operational programs. The RSMCs are encouraged
to continue to explore modelling techniques (e.g. moveable windows, fine scale models) that could provide
rapid analysis and forecasting volcanic ash and gases to enhance public safety programs.
2.8
Other business
2.8.1
The RSMCs are considering to undertake a more organized approach to verification of the
atmospheric transport models. The U.S. NOAA has developed a data base of long-range tracer
experimental data, meteorology, and statistical anaylsis procedures in a common non-proprietary format for
public distribution. The RSMCs will participate in the demonstration of the use of this data base. A model
evaluation exercise will be conducted and the results will be reported. Standards will be considered for
baseline model verification , for example to be applied to new atmospheric transport models.
2.8.2
While improved methods for product distribution/access are being explored (see above), Web
based approaches could also offer exchanges of products that could facilitate an ensembles approach to
atmospheric transport modeling, whereby confidence of forecasts, and objective probabilistic estimates
might be computed. Several Centres expressed interest in exploring this approach.