European Environment Agency
A project under the Framework contract
EEA/SKI/08/04
SUPPORT TO ANALYSIS OF MEGATRENDS IN THE AREAS OF
NANOTECHNOLOGY,
BIOTECHNOLOGY AND INFORMATION
AND COGNITIVE SCIENCE
Final Background paper
June, 2010
Contact BIO Intelligence Service
Shailendra Mudgal – Arianna De Toni
 + 33 1 53 90 11 80
Shailendra.Mudgal@biois.com
Arianna.Detoni@biois.com
Project Team
Bio Intelligence Service
Shailendra Mudgal
Arianna De Toni
Cécile Ruault
Debora Dias
Alex Thornton
Acknowledgement: A draft version of this report was reviewed by the following experts: Daniel
Andler, Alain Kaufmann, Diane Nicol. Their valuable comments are hereby gratefully
acknowledged.
Disclaimer:
The project team does not accept any liability for any direct or indirect damage resulting from
the use of this report or its content.
This report contains the results of research by the authors and is not to be perceived as the
opinion of the European Environmental Agency.
2
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Contents
1.
Introduction .................................................................................................... 5
1.1.
What is the report about? .................................................................................................... 5
1.2.
Why is this report relevant? ................................................................................................. 6
1.3.
What is the starting point of this report? ............................................................................. 6
1.4.
How is this report structured? ............................................................................................. 7
2.
Mega-trends – conceptual approach to the analysis ......................................... 8
3.
Two interrelated mega-trends in NBIC-technology development .................... 10
3.1.
Mega-trend I: Acceleration of technological change ......................................................... 11
3.1.1.
Nanotechnologies ........................................................................................................................... 11
3.1.1.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................................... 11
3.1.1.2 Acceleration of technological change .......................................................................................... 14
 Current situation ............................................................................................................................ 14
 Nanomaterials in consumer products .......................................................................................... 14
 Long-term outlook .......................................................................................................................... 16
 Nanomaterials for energy and environmental applications ......................................................... 17
 Nanomedicine .............................................................................................................................. 18
 Nanomaterials in food products .................................................................................................. 19
3.1.1.3 Schematic summary ..................................................................................................................... 20
3.1.2.
Biotechnologies ............................................................................................................................... 21
3.1.2.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................................... 21
3.1.2.2 Acceleration of technological change .......................................................................................... 22
 Current situation ............................................................................................................................ 22
 Genetically modified organisms ................................................................................................... 22
 Stem cell research and therapy .................................................................................................... 23
 Biofuels ........................................................................................................................................ 25
 Synthetic biology .......................................................................................................................... 26
 Long-term outlook .......................................................................................................................... 27
3.1.3.
Information sciences ....................................................................................................................... 29
3.1.3.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................................... 29
3.1.3.2 Acceleration of technological change .......................................................................................... 29
 Current situation ............................................................................................................................ 29
 Cloud computing .......................................................................................................................... 31
 Pervasive computing .................................................................................................................... 33
 User-generated content ............................................................................................................... 34
 Penetration to other sectors ........................................................................................................ 35
 Long-term outlook .......................................................................................................................... 36
3.1.4.
Cognitive science ............................................................................................................................. 37
3.1.4.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................................... 37
3.1.4.2 Acceleration of technological change .......................................................................................... 38
 Current situation ............................................................................................................................ 38
 Learning processes and education ............................................................................................... 38
 Neuroimaging and imaging genetics ............................................................................................ 40
 Multilingualism............................................................................................................................. 41
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
3
 Mirror neurons ............................................................................................................................ 41
 Long-term outlook.......................................................................................................................... 42
3.2.
Megatrend II: the convergence of technologies in NBIC will continue ...............................44
3.2.1.
Drivers ............................................................................................................................................. 50
3.2.2.
3.2.2.1




3.2.2.2




Uncertainties................................................................................................................................... 53
Uncertainty in evaluating benefits, risks and impacts ................................................................. 53
Nanotechnologies .......................................................................................................................... 53
Biotechnologies .............................................................................................................................. 55
Information sciences ...................................................................................................................... 58
Cognitive science ............................................................................................................................ 60
Level of public acceptance ........................................................................................................... 61
Nanotechnologies .......................................................................................................................... 61
Biotechnologies .............................................................................................................................. 63
Information sciences ...................................................................................................................... 64
Cognitive science ............................................................................................................................ 65
4.
Benefits and Impacts: increased potential for environmental remediation, increased
environmental risks .................................................................................................. 67
4.1.
4.1.1.
Nanotechnologies ........................................................................................................................... 67
4.1.2.
Biotechnologies............................................................................................................................... 68
4.1.3.
Information science ........................................................................................................................ 70
4.1.4.
Cognitive science ............................................................................................................................ 72
4.2.
Impacts and risks .................................................................................................................75
4.2.1.
Nanotechnologies ........................................................................................................................... 75
4.2.2.
Biotechnologies............................................................................................................................... 76
4.2.3.
Information science ........................................................................................................................ 78
4.2.4.
Cognitive science ............................................................................................................................ 80
5.
4
Long term benefits and opportunities for environment .....................................................67
Implications for policy makers ....................................................................... 82
5.1.
Nanotechnologies ...............................................................................................................82
5.2.
Biotechnologies ...................................................................................................................84
5.3.
Information sciences ...........................................................................................................86
5.4.
Cognitive science .................................................................................................................87
5.5.
Cross cutting issues and conclusions ...................................................................................88
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.
WHAT IS THE REPORT ABOUT?
Globalisation has enhanced the interactions between Europe and other parts of the world,
making Europe increasingly linked with the rest of the world in terms of problems and solutions.
The sciences have reached a turning point where disciplinary boundaries are becoming
increasingly blurred by the cross-fertilisation of technologies, which are developing in an
increasingly inter-disciplinary manner. Further development is foreseen to be based on a holistic
view of science and technology that envisions new technical possibilities, including an increasing
focus on human-technology interactions. Cycles of technology invention, innovation and
diffusion have increased in scope and speed – the pace of technological change has increased
globally.
Converging technologies refer to the synergistic combination of four major fields of science and
technology, each of which is currently progressing at an extremely fast rate. These four fields of
science are together often referred to as “NBIC” (nanoscience and nanotechnology;
biotechnology and biomedicine, including genetic engineering; information technology;
cognitive science)1, 2.
This report starts from a global-to-European perspective with the aim of identifying new
questions concerning long-term future developments, by taking into account the opportunities
that technology megatrends have to offer.
The aim of this report is to provide support for the framing of the SOER 2010 Part A by providing
the EEA with a background report that describes key global technology mega-trends, with a
particular focus on the NBIC-cluster and the environmental opportunities and threats it creates.
A familiar example of converging technologies is the convergence of computing equipment and
domestic consumer electronics, but the term is also used to describe the coming together of
scientific disciplines to solve problems that are common to these disciplines, initially through
interdisciplinary cooperation. If the area of overlap is of a more permanent nature, this
cooperation can develop into a convergence drawing on elements from each of the scientific
disciplines to form a new discipline, or sub-discipline, with its own institutions, infrastructure,
and trajectories2.
1
Schummer, J. From Nano-Convergence to NBIC-Convergence: “The best way to predict the future is to create it”,
2008. Available at: www.joachimschummer.net/papers/2008_Nano-NBIC-Convergence_Maasen-et-al.pdf [Accessed
15/03/2010]
2
Bunge 2003, Doorn 2006 Available at: www.contecs.fraunhofer.de/images/files/contecs_report_complete.pdf;
[Accessed 26/03/2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
5
1.2.
WHY IS THIS REPORT RELEVANT?
A long-term view on global technology mega-trends and their key socio-economic drivers is
critical to better understand how they might impact on Europe's environment, as key aspects of
trend developments will evolve over time and will be shaped by developments outside Europe.
The convergence of sciences and technologies creates many opportunities which have immense
societal and historical implications for human development. Science and technology will
become more and more significant in the future, as population growth, resource exploitation,
and potential social conflict grow and call for new solutions. The development of new ecoefficient technologies is essential in this regard. Technology convergence in the NBIC cluster can
bring about true breakthroughs in new technologies to foster a healthy natural environment
and human health. Yet is also increases the risks of potentially dangerous mis-developments
and accidents that can cause severe harm to humans and the environment.
Given the technological possibilities today, the realisation of the opportunities that these
technologies represent depends mainly on socio-economic and environmental factors, such as
sufficient funding of interdisciplinary collaboration, the interest of consumers, environmental
and health impacts of technologies, etc. With attention to both ethical issues and societal
needs, the result can be a tremendous improvement in human abilities, new industries and
products, societal outcomes, and quality of life, although a number of ethical issues are being
raised at the same time which will be mentioned later in the report.
1.3.
WHAT IS THE STARTING POINT OF THIS REPORT?
There are more than 100 individual technology development and application fields, scientific
areas and research fields, in which convergence is claimed to be under way or where
convergence is expected to take place in the future. Almost all of the research and development
fields related to converging technologies (CT) can be classified in the following eight areas:








Neuroscience and brain enhancement
Physical enhancement and biomedicine
Synthetic biology
Human-machine interface
Artificial sensors
Pattern recognition
Computer-based modelling
Robots and intelligent software and devices
Convergence encompasses the classification of sub-fields and sub-disciplines, and is essential
between all eight fields for the progress of knowledge. The weight of each area is similar and
6
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
the need for interdisciplinary co-operation is considered to be central in all eight fields3. For this
reason, the term ‘converging technology’ is used.
The NanoBiotech-Information-Cognitive technologies are developing at an accelerated rate
compared to other sciences. A good example of the expansion of these emerging technologies is
the rapidly growing number of research papers on nanotechnology. More than 27 000 papers
containing the prefix “nano“ were published in 2005, although the word “nanotechnology” was
only used for the first time in history in 1974. The US National Science Foundation has estimated
that global investments in nanotechnology R&D have been multiplied by almost 10 between
1997 and 2005 (2005: $ 4.1bn)4 .
1.4.
HOW IS THIS REPORT STRUCTURED?
This report presents an analysis of global mega-trends in the area of technology developments.
The first mega-trend this report identifies is that of the increasing speed and scope of
technological change, which has put its mark on the last two decades. Given the strong interlinkages of science and technology in a globalised world it is likely to continue in the future.
However, this trend concerns not only the speed but also the depth of innovation, opening up
completely new areas for science and technology (see section 3. ).
Convergence of technologies is the other mega-trend analysed in this report (see section 3.2. ).
The report covers the following topics:





Characteristics, benefits and opportunities of converging technologies including
environmental remediation (section 3.1.1. to 3.1.4. )
Drivers of converging technologies development (section 3.2.1. )
Uncertainties (3.2.2. )
Impacts and risks related to these technologies, including impacts on environment
(section 4. )
Issues for policy makers (section 5. )
3
Andler et al. Converging Technologies and their impact on the Social Sciences and Humanities (CONTECS): An
analysis of critical issues and a suggestion for a future research agenda. 2008. Available at:
www.contecs.fraunhofer.de/images/files/contecs_report_complete.pdf; [Accessed 26/03/2010]
4
Nanotechnology facts and figures. Available at: www.nature.com/nnano/nanofacts/index.html ; [Accessed 15/ 03/
2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
7
2. MEGA-TRENDS – CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO THE
ANALYSIS
Will be provided by EEA – will be the same for all SOER 2010 Part A Background reports
8
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
This page has been left intentionally blank
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
9
3. TWO INTERRELATED MEGA-TRENDS IN NBICTECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Looking across the complex, interlinked fields of NBIC sciences and technologies, two main
mega-trends are identified in this report to provide an overall framework for analysis.
Mega-trend I: The acceleration of new technology developments will continue, with an
increased pace and frequency of breakthroughs alongside an increasing use of new technologies
in all aspects of life. Examples include smart homes, embedded sensors and biometrics. New
technologies will enhance communication between people, but also communication between
people and applications, and between applications themselves. The NBIC cluster will move more
and more from the innovation phase, where seeds have been planted, over the last two
decades, to the application phase, over the next 20 years.
Megatrend II: The convergence of technologies in NBIC will continue. The technology of the
future will continue to integrate developments from different scientific disciplines in a
“convergence” with profound impacts on society. Basic innovations will give rise to new
industrial sectors and trigger industrial changes in developed economies and developing
economies in a similar fashion. Many observers of science, technology and market
developments speculate that the NBIC cluster is likely to form the backbone of a next long-term
wave of innovation and growth (see section 3.2. ). For instance in the U.S. between 2005 and
2011 the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) will have invested $480 million in research,
while the EU and Member States anticipate spending roughly $100 million (€79 million) through
2010. Estimates for Asian expenditures over the equivalent period are about $65 million—
including China (roughly estimated at $17 million from 2005 to 2008), Japan, S. Korea,
Singapore, and Taiwan combined5.
A key question therefore is to what degree NBIC is likely to form a technology revolution over
the next forty years, which not only leads to the emergence of new products, services, systems
or industries, but affects directly or indirectly almost all every branch of the economy and
society? NBIC are cross-border technologies, the development of which is fraught by many
uncertainties.
5
10
Source: www.cordis.europa.eu/nanotechnology/src/safety.htm; Accessed online the 28/06/2010.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
3.1.
MEGA-TREND I: ACCELERATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
3.1.1. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
3.1.1.1
Definition
Nanotechnology is defined as the field of science or engineering which can manipulate materials
and fabricate devices at the atomic and molecular scale, called nanomaterials (see Box below).
Box 3-1: Terminology

Nanotechnology is the engineering of functional systems at the molecular scale.

Nanoparticles are particles that range between 1 and 100 nanometres (1 nm = 10−9
meter) or that have an aerodynamic diameter6 of between 1 and 100 nm.

Nanomaterials are materials in which one or more properties are determined to a
significant degree by the presence of nanoscale structural features.
Two approaches are possible to manufacture nanomaterials. Top-down approaches start from a
larger unit of material, slicing or milling this bulk material, to obtain smaller units of the desired
shape. Bottom-up approaches arrange smaller sub-units or components (e.g. atoms or
molecules) into larger and functionally richer, complex structures. The colloidal dispersion is an
example of this method. These manipulations of the size and shape of structures, devices, and
systems, produce new structures, devices, and systems with at least one novel/superior
characteristic or property from those expressed at larger scales.
Properties such as colour, conductivity and reactivity can change, and nanomaterials may have a
mechanical strength, a scratch resistance, water repellence, reflectivity or photoactivity that is
modified in respect to the correspondent macro materials. An example of this is the nanosized
particle of gold which appears red instead of yellow and which is much more reactive compared
to the macro-sized gold which is inert. These changes are due to the fact that the surface-tovolume ratio is increased. Many industries use nanoparticles in their products, such as titanium
dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles used in sunscreen and cosmetics, silver (Ag) nanoparticles in
clothing and disinfectants, and cerium oxide (CeO2) nanoparticles used as fuel catalyst.
One of the specific properties of nanoparticles, for example, which is widely used in
commercialised products, is the interface effect. The dimension of the space in between two
materials is an important parameter in determining the physical and chemical interactions
between the materials. In a material consisting of nanoparticles the available surface area and
the area/volume ratio are increased (Figure 3-1).
6
In general, a particle has an irregular shape and a proper density. The aerodynamic diameter is the diameter of a
potential spherical particle having a density of 1 g/cm3 and the same sedimentation velocity as the particle studied.
This aerodynamic diameter is used to quantify the size of an air particle.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
11
Figure 3-1: Relationship between specific surface area (m2 kg-1) of a spherical particle and its size
(diameter in nm) with a density of 1000 kg m-3 as an example. Specific surface area increases as particles
become smaller7.
As a consequence of such an increase in the area/volume ratio, the reactivity of the material is
enhanced. Thus, the interface effect of nanoparticles provides the possibility of creating very
thin layers of coating with specific physical properties (e.g. electrical and thermal conductivity,
mechanical strength, scratch resistance, water repellence, reflectivity, and photoactivity).
Different forms of nanoparticles exist:
 Nanotubes are concentric tubes composed by ultrathin films of random networks with
an internal diameter of one nanometre and a length of a few micrometers (Figure 3-2).
Due to their electrical, mechanical (e.g. flexibility, high mobility, etc.), optical, chemical
and thermal properties, they are used in transparent devices, electronics, sensors, etc8.
Carbon nanotubes can be incorporated into polymeric structures (liquids, solutions,
melts, gels, amorphous and crystalline matrices) to modify their mechanical properties9.
 Fullerenes are spherical nanomolecules consisting of 60 carbon atoms (Figure 3-2).
Spherical fullerenes are also called buckyballs, and cylindrical ones are called carbon
nanotubes or buckytubes. Recent advances in fullerene science and technology suggest
that it may be possible, in the far future, to design and build atomically precise
programmable machines composed largely of functionalized fullerenes. Large numbers
of such machines with appropriate interconnections could conceivably create a material
able to react to the environment and repair itself.
7
Navarro E., et al. Ecotoxicology. 2008;17(5):372-386
8
Cao Q and Rogers JA. Random networks and aligned arrays of single-walled carbon nanotubes for electronic device
applications. Nano Res. 2008; 1: 259 272
9
12
Popov VN. Carbon nanotubes: properties and application. Materials Science and Engineering. 2004; 43:61–102
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Figure 3-2: Models of a fulleren and two carbon nanotubes10




Micelles are spherical nanoparticles with a hydrophobic interior and a hydrophilic
exterior. In general, their diameter measures less than 50 nm. Drugs or contrast agents,
for instance, may be encapsulated within the hydrophobic core or linked covalently to
the micelles surface.
Liposomes are tiny vesicles which have a hydrophilic head and a hydrophobic tail
(Figure 3-3). Liposomes is extensively studied for encapsulation of drugs. When lipid self
assemble to liposomes water-soluble drugs will be trapped inside the liposomal cavity;
fat-soluble drugs are incorporated within phospholipid bi-layer. The lipid bilayer of the
liposome can fuse with other bilayers (e.g. cell membrane), thus delivering the liposome
contents.
Dendrimers are repeatedly branched molecules attached to a central chain of carbon
atoms, having nanometer-scale dimensions (Figure 3-3). Dendrimers are nanostructures
that can be precisely designed and manufactured for a wide variety of applications. As
an enabling technology, dendrimers provide the vehicle — the targeting and delivery
mechanisms — for a vast array of diagnostic and therapeutic products.
Quantum dots are colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals, the diameter of which ranges
from 2 to 10 nm. The most commonly used quantum dots are cadmium selenide (CdSe),
cadmium telluride (CdTe), indium phosphide (InP), and indium arsenide (InAs). In
bioimaging these particles serve as contrast agents, providing a much greater resolution
than existing fluorescent dyes.
10
Swiss Nanoscience Institute – Carbon nanotubes:
www.nanoscience.ch/nccr/information/media/pictures_original/gallery_01/gallery_01_03 [Accessed online
20/01/2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
13
Figure 3-3: Illustrations of a liposome11 and a dendrimer12
3.1.1.2
Acceleration of technological change
 Current situation
Today, an increasing number of consumer products and industrial processes contain
nanoparticles or use nanotechnologies. Several megatrends currently influence and are
expected to influence the research and development of nanotechnologies in the future.
Assuming that consumers want increasingly performing products, nanotechnologies can provide
novel properties to materials, thus creating a vast choice of innovative products. This megatrend
could be even stronger in the future with the entry of a huge quantity of new potential
consumers from emerging economies (e.g. China and India). In fact, materials containing
nanoparticles can add a technological value to certain products and provide significant
functional benefits for the consumer. As a consequence, several categories of products, such as
microelectronics, cosmetics, or pharmaceuticals are now branded with the word ‘nano’.
In the following text the report discusses some example areas of application of nanomaterials.
 Nanomaterials in consumer products
The exceptional electrical, mechanical, optical, chemical, and thermal properties of thin,
nanofilms make them especially attractive for novel multipurpose/multifunctional systems,
where several of these unique properties combine to enable functionalities that are difficult or
impossible to achieve with established materials and which could also permit to reduce the size
of electronic materials.
Other specific properties such as the quantum effect or complexity are also used in
commercialised consumer products. For example, in the microelectronic industry, the use of
nanotechnology to miniaturise the circuit’s elements in order to obtain increasingly complex
systems has been largely applied. Carbon nanotubes, for instance, have been used for nanoscale
transistors with a performance equal to or greater than that of traditional materials13.
11
Wikimedia commons. File: Liposome scheme-fr.svg: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Liposome_scheme-fr.svg
[Accessed online 15/04/2010]
12
Gandini A. The application of the Diels-Alder reaction to polymer syntheses based on furan/maleimide reversible
couplings: www.scielo.br/img/revistas/po/v15n2/a07img08.gif [Accessed online 15/04/2010]
13
DeHon D. Array-Based Architecture for FET-Based, Nanoscale Electronics. IEEE transactions on nanotechnology.
2(1):23-32, 2003.
14
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Thanks to the specific properties of nanoparticles, in addition to electronics, a number of
interesting commercial applications have been developed and will probably continue to be
developed in the future. Some of the most important commercial applications include:





UV protection
Fire protection
Tensile strength
Antimicrobial coating
Easily cleanable
Thus, nanomaterials can be found in a very diverse range of consumer products. For instance,
due to the antimicrobial properties of silver nanoparticles, they are used in household
appliances, toys, food packaging and kitchen utensils. Sunscreens tend to include nanoparticles
of zinc oxide or titanium dioxide that allow the liquid to be transparent, but still effective for
skin’s protection. Sports equipment typically employs carbon nanotubes and their novel
properties of additional strength and reduced weight while clothing, car accessories, cleaners
and coatings exploit the ability of nanostructured surfaces to repel dirt and water. In computers,
nanotechnologies are used to reduce the size of components.
In the packaging industry, the use of nanoparticles is at a more advanced stage than it is in food
production. Nanoparticles are for example used in PET bottles, to improve the protection of
bottles against oxidative agents or to modulate the strength or rigidity of materials14.
An inventory of nanoconsumer products was produced by the Project on Emerging
Nanotechnologies, a partnership between the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars and Pew
Charitable Trusts15. This work demonstrates that even if nanotechnologies are still largely an
emerging field, they are already entering our daily lives through a range of consumer goods and,
today, over 1,000 consumer products have been identified as containing nanomaterials.
Accordingly, the annual global production of nanoparticles was on the order of 103 tonnes in
2004 and is expected to increase further to 104-105 tonnes per year after 201016.
Thus, nanotechnology has helped in the development of novel material and devices and the
constantly increasing interest of the research community on these technologies has resulted in
their huge development (Figure 3-4).
14
Centre for Technology Assessment. Dinner is served! Nanotechnology in the kitchen and in the shopping basket –
Abstract of the TA-SWISS study “Nanotechnology in the food sector”. 2009: www.taswiss.ch/a/nano_nafo/KF_Nano_im_Lebensmittelbereich.pdf
15
Project on emerging Nanotechnologies website: www.nanotechproject.org; [Accessed online 29/04/2010]
16
Science Policy Section. The Royal Society & The Royal Academy of Engineering, London, (2004)
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
15
Figure 3-4: Example of product categories containing nanomaterials 17
 Long-term outlook
In the following section, several nanotechnology applications which are expected to have a
strong development in the future are presented (Box 3-2).
17
PEN, The Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies – Inventories:
www.nanotechproject.org/inventories/consumer/analysis_draft/ [Accessed online 04/02/2010]
16
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Box 3-2: Characteristics of the future nanomaterials18
Predicting the future of nanotechnology is difficult. In general, there often is a tendency to
underestimate the impact of a new technology and the pace of its development. However
some characteristics of next-generation nanotechnology can be drawn and include:

Changes in the materials: a number of nanomaterials in the advanced research stage
are designed to change irreversibly or temporary their characteristics under specified
circumstances. Materials may change in response to an external stimulus, such as
electromagnetic radiation, temperature or changes in pH.

Self-assembly and self replication: One of the characteristics of next-generation
nanotechnology is to imitate nature by designing systems and devices that construct
things from the bottom up, (i.e., that make things atom by atom and molecule by
molecule). A number of next-generation nanotechnologies thus include innovative
materials that arrange themselves into complex and active nanoscale structures with
little or no additional manipulation. Self-assembly that leads to the growth of a
nanomaterial with a repeating structure is the simplest form of self-replication.
Engineered molecules and nanoparticles, when mixed together, naturally form into
increasingly complex structures that may result in more energy-efficient manufacturing
and the possibility of designing nanomaterials that can assemble in normally
inaccessible places—such as within the body.
The timeframes within which these innovations will be commercialised will be different for
different innovations. Several estimations exist ranging from 5-10 to 15-50 years. However, the
current global recession will probably delay the commercialisation of new discoveries because
companies and investors have less money and are more risk adverse18.
 Nanomaterials for energy and environmental applications
Semiconductor nanowires exhibit unique electrical, optical, and mechanical properties arising
from their miniaturised dimensions. They can potentially provide a unique advantage due to
their anti-reflective and light trapping properties19. In addition, nanotechnology could be
integrated in solar cells (i.e. coating dye) to improve the transformation of light into energy20.
Thin films of copper quantum dots could be used to soak up the light of different wavelengths,
increasing the efficiency of solar cells, decreasing the quantity of material needed and reducing
18
J. Clarence Davies, Oversight of Next Generation Nanotechnology, 2009.
19
Fan Z., Ruebusch D.J., Rathore AA., et al. Challenges and Prospects of Nanopillar-Based Solar Cells. Nano Res. 2:829
843, 2009.
20
Hett A. from Swiss Re. Nanotechnology Small matter, many unknowns. 2004:
www.swissre.com/resources/31598080455c7a3fb154bb80a45d76a0-Publ04_Nano_en.pdf; Shankar et al. Highly
Efficient Solar Cells using TiO2 Nanotube Arrays Sensitized with a Donor-Antenna Dye. Nanolettres, 2008.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
17
the price21. Nanomaterials could then be introduced to increase the efficiency of some
elementary steps of energy conversion, such as charge transfer, molecular rearrangement,
chemical reactions, etc. 22
The use of nanoparticles to prevent and remove various forms of environmental pollution may
be another possible future application. This is based on their ability to react with chemicals or
contaminating microorganisms present in soil or water. For instance, in wastewater and groundwater treatment nanoparticles could be used to eliminate organic dyes, inorganic compounds
(e.g. nitrates) and to treat refractory organic compounds. In addition, in sewage plants
nanomaterials could avoid the propagation of nanoparticulate contamination emitted from
consumer’s products into the aquatic environment23.
 Nanomedicine
In medicine, nanotechnologies such as nanospheres, nanocapsules or nanosuspensions, could
be used to deliver drugs within human body. Nanomedicine is promising especially in the fields
of molecular diagnostics and cancer therapy, even if many of the applications quoted are still at
the stage of fundamental research. Such technologies will improve human health and well being
with indirect impacts on the environment: people live longer so the figures on population
growth might change slightly with implications for future resource use and environmental
impacts.
The most promising nanoparticle structures for nanomedicine include liposomes, micelles,
dendrimers, quantum dots, iron oxide and carbon nanotubes. The general principle is that the
active molecule is hidden within the nanoparticle. Therefore, the active molecule will not be
recognised by the patient’s immune system and it will be carried until it reaches the target cells
in the target organ. Such nanostructures could be administrated intravenously since they do not
aggregate or settle in the blood. Owing to their small size, nanoparticles could easily penetrate
through biological membranes and cellular pores and accumulate in target cells. As a result,
they could improve the efficiency, reduce the toxicity and enhance the distribution of the active
molecules within the body24.
For example, nanomicelles are stable in blood and they could gradually release drugs in the
target organs and facilitate in vivo imaging. Nanomicelles or other nanoparticles can be also
modified using ligand molecules for targeted delivery to specific cells (e.g. cancer cells)25.
21
Fichtner M. Nanomaterials for Energy Applications - Challenges and Prospects. 2009: www.czechin.org/enf2009/ppt/A3_Fichtner_Y.pdf
22
Institute for Shock Physics – Applied Sciences Laboratory. Energy applications – nanomaterials:
www.asl.wsu.edu/site/research/en_energyApplications_nanomaterials.html [Accessed online 15/04/2010]
23
Narr J., Viraraghavan T., Jin Y.C. Applications of nanotechnology in water/wastewater treatment: A review.
Fresenius Environ. Bull. 2007; 16(4):320-329
24
Ravichandran R. Nanotechnology-Based Drug Delivery Systems Nanobiotechnol. DOI 10.1007/s12030-009-9028-2 www.springerlink.com/content/j64407l7w6232125/ [Accessed online 20/10/2010]
25
Bawarski WE., Chidlowsky, E., Bharali, DJ., et al. Emerging nanopharmaceuticals. Nanomedicine: Nanotechnology,
Biology, and Medicine. 2008;4:273–282
18
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
After decades of work in animal models, a recent study realised in humans showed that
nanoparticles injected into the patients’ bloodstreams can target proteins associated with the
progression of cancer, deliver medication and render those proteins inactive. This study is
preliminary but the findings would improve cancer treatment targeting and going inside tumour
cells in the body. Future developments would be the injection of an imaging agent to monitor
the progression of the tumour through therapy26.
Another application of nanotechnology in medicine is nanosuspension, which may provide
chemically and physically stable aggregates for hydrophobic drugs. Nanosuspensions could be
used with poorly soluble drugs which should have a reduced size and an improved
bioavailability. The major advantages of nanosuspension technology could be its general
applicability to most drugs and its simplicity.
Nanomedicine may also be used for oral delivery of peptides, such as insulin, hormones, growth
factors, clotting factors, and anticoagulants, which have a limited bioavailability, an inadequate
stability, immunogenicity, and a limited permeability across biological membranes.
Nanotechnologies may thus allow increasing gastrointestinal absorption of these peptides.
Another promising future application is the fusion of peptides with implantable, oral, topical,
and transdermal drug delivery systems. Nanochips or implantable devices, for instance, which
use a controlled delivery systems capable of controlling drug administration, may improve
disease management and may potentially be applied as antitumour therapy, gene therapy or
vaccines. Nanochips may even be used to assist in repairing damaged tissue, detecting mutated
genes, or detecting high hormone levels indicative of certain malignancies. They may be capable
of triggering immediate responses to inflamed tissues and simultaneously provide therapy to
these tissues. This kind of implantable devices could avoid the inconvenience of frequent local
injections24. This potential to guide particles precisely to their target cells could revolutionise,
for instance, cancer treatment and related therapies27.
 Nanomaterials in food products
Bioactive compounds (e.g. omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, probiotics, prebiotics, vitamins,
minerals, etc.) that can be found naturally in certain foods have physiological benefits and might
help to reduce the risk of certain diseases, such as cancer. By reducing particle size,
nanotechnology applied to food products could contribute to improve delivery properties,
solubility, and the time of residence in the gastrointestinal tract, and thus facilitate a more
efficient absorption of these bioactive compounds.
26
CNN - Elizabeth Landau. Nanotech cancer treatment shown to work in humans. March 22, 2010:
pagingdrgupta.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/22/nanotech-cancer-treatment-shown-to-work-in-humans/ [Accessed online
23/03/2010]
27
June 2010
Bruce D. Ethical and social issues in nanobiotechnologies. EMBO reports. 2006;7(8):754-758
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
19
In addition, nanoparticles could be used to encapsulate certain vitamins, enzymes, flavours,
nutraceuticals28, or trace elements, which react sensitively to light or oxygen, or are not water
soluble. Therefore these substances, once encapsulated into nanostructures, degrade less
quickly or are absorbed better by the body.
Silicon dioxide particles (as E 551), for instance, are components between 5 and 50 nanometres
in size which prevent moisture’s development. Micelles, like Polysorbate 20 (E432) or
Polysorbate 80 (E433), are spherical-shape structures which can be used to encapsulate
vitamins, omega-3 fatty acids, essential oils, the energy-giving co-enzyme Q10, etc29 as
sheathing for light-sensitive or fast-oxidising substances.
The packaging industry is interested in packaging materials in which nanoparticles could be used
as sensors (e.g. films changing colour according to the degree of ripeness)29.Nanosensors can
also be used to detect food spoilage. For example, nanoparticles may fluoresce in different
colours when in contact with food pathogens: a meat package might have a green sensor that
turns red when it senses the presence of more than a threshold level of harmful bacteria30. Such
nanosensors could then be placed directly into the packaging material31 where they detect
contaminants and help in ensuring food safety.
An additional example of the future use of nanotubes from the milk protein is a-lactalbumin
which are able to increase the viscosity of food products owing to their high surface/volume
ratio providing stiffness to the food product. These high protein-density nanotubes could also
be used as thickeners and have cavities which might enable the binding of food components,
such as vitamins or enzymes. These cavities could also be used to encapsulate and protect
nutraceuticals or to mask undesirable flavour or aroma compounds31.
3.1.1.3
Schematic summary
Various nanotechnology applications presented in the previous section are summarised in Table
3-1.
Table 3-1 : Current and possible future applications of nanotechnologies
Category
Current applications
Future potential applications
Microelectronics
Transparent devices; printable,
flexible electronics; miniaturisation
of circuit’s components;
transistors; semi-conductor
nanowires
Faster and far less power-consuming
computers; reduction of the size of
computer components
28
Nutraceutical is a term combining the words “nutrition” and “pharmaceutical,” it describes a nutritional product
that claims to provide medicinal benefits in addition to their regular nutritional value.
29
Centre for Technology Assessment. Dinner is served! Nanotechnology in the kitchen and in the shopping basket –
Abstract of the TA-SWISS study “Nanotechnology in the food sector”. 2009: www.taswiss.ch/a/nano_nafo/KF_Nano_im_Lebensmittelbereich.pdf
30
Busch L. Nanotechnologies, food, and agriculture: next big thing or flash in the pan? Agric Hum Values.
2008;25:215–218
31
20
Sozer N., Kokini JL. Nanotechnology and its applications in the food sector. Trends Biotechnol. 2009;27(2):82-9
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Category
Current applications
Future potential applications
Energy/ Environment
Thin films of copper nanodots
Cleanup; solar cells; use in charge
transfer, molecular rearrangement,
chemical reactions
Military
Lighter, flexible, more agile and
more resistant military platforms;
light armoured vehicles, tanks,
fighter jets
Sophisticated and discrete sensors;
reduction of the size of armament
subsystems
Assessment of heart rates and
monitoring blood or calories
Deliver drugs; diagnostics; cancer
therapy; implantable devices
including liposomes, micelles,
dendrimers, quantum dots, iron
oxide, carbon nanotubes,
nanosuspensions
Medicine
/
Cosmetics
UV protection; transparency of
sunscreens
Household appliances
Tensile strength; antimicrobial
coating; fire protection; easily
cleanable products; repellence of
dirt and water
Used in toys, kitchen utensils,
sports equipment, clothing, car
accessories, cleaners, coatings
Food
Protection of plastic bottles
Capsules to protect active
ingredients in cosmetics and
nutritional supplements
Improvement of the current
applications
Encapsulation of vitamins, enzymes,
flavours, nutraceuticals or trace
elements; prevention of moisture
development; nanosensors;
thickener
3.1.2. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
3.1.2.1
Definition
Any mention of the word ‘biotechnology’ tends to conjure up visions of genetic engineering and
genetic modification (GM), associating the field with the application of advanced modern
technologies. It may be surprising to realise that biotechnology is one of the oldest ‘industries’
on Earth. Traditional biotechnology finds its origins more than 6000 years ago, with the
discovery of fermentation processes for the production of bread, wine and beer and the control
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
21
of agriculture and livestock through selective breeding32. In its broadest sense, the term
biotechnology embraces all industrial uses of living organisms by human beings.
It was not until the 1960s and 1970s that major innovations in biotechnology allowed the
manipulation of organisms at the micro level as well as at the macro level. This means that it has
only been half a century since scientists have had a sufficient understanding of fundamental
biological processes to be able to manipulate the molecular constituents within cells, or the
building blocks of life. Modern biotechnology thus tends to be more narrowly defined as “the
use of cellular and bio molecular processes to solve problems or make useful products”33.
Biotechnology has been touted as one of the most innovative technologies of the 21 st century,
with a variety of applications across various sectors. In the healthcare sector, modern
biotechnology has brought about the production of a number of new diagnostics, therapies and
vaccines, with several more undergoing clinical trials33. Biotechnology also has important
applications in other fields such as agriculture, food production environmental protection,
industrial production and warfare. In the following section four main areas of biotechnology
advances are presented in greater detail, including genetically modified organisms, stem cells,
biofuels and synthetic biology.
3.1.2.2
Acceleration of technological change
Although the technologies presented hereafter differ in maturity, they illustrate important
examples of biotechnologies application.
 Current situation
 Genetically modified organisms
The modern era of genetics began with the first description of DNA’s double helical structure by
James Watson and Francis Crick in 1953. Since then, scientific advances have made it possible
for entire genomes to be sequenced, and for genetic material to be manipulated. A genetically
modified organism (GMO) is an organism whose genetic material has been altered using genetic
engineering techniques. Transgenic organisms also fall within the umbrella of GMO
classification, although their DNA is altered by the addition of DNA material from separate
species rather than manipulation of their own genetic material.
GM crops were first authorised for marketing in 1994, and since then, production continues to
rise at a significant rate. Between 2006 and 2007, GM crop uptake rose dramatically in some
countries, over 25% in Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay and South Africa, and over 50% in the
Philippines and India. In 2008, the global area covered by GM crops was 125 million hectares
and the total accumulated hectarage exceeded 800 million hectares. It was not until 2005 that
the first 400 million hectares of GM crops was reached, but it took only 3 more years for that
hectarage to double34. GM crop technology is experiencing an unprecedented expansion, now
32
Biotechnology industry organisation: www.bio.org/speeches/pubs/er/timeline.asp [Accessed the 25/01/2010]
33
www.bio.org/speeches/pubs/er/BiotechGuide2008.pdf [Accessed the 25/01/2010]
34
James C, Highlights of the Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops, 2008
22
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
grown in more than 25 countries, with new crops being continuously developed and marketed
worldwide34.
Despite the claims that GM crop uptake has risen rapidly, some question remain about the
accuracy of these figures, which were provided in 2008 but the ISAAA; a group that lobbies for
GM crops. In 2009, the NGO, Friends of the Earth organisation stated that the figures provided
by the ISAAA have been over-estimated, especially in relation to small farmers. ISAAA stated
that the number of biotech crop farmers reached 13.3 million globally in 25 countries, 90% of
which were small farmers. In 2008, approximately 513 million small and medium farmers
holding land below 10 hectars. Therefore, in the global context, only 2.6% of small farmers were
growing GM crops in 200835. Furthermore, with the introduction of Bulgaria into the EU (which
stopped its GM crop growing activities), and the banning of GM crop production in France in
2008, the figures given by ISAAA are likely to be over-estimated for Europe36.
 Stem cell research and therapy
Stem cell research has come a long way since its beginnings in the 1960s. Stem cells are
undifferentiated cells which have the ability to be transformed into particular cell types,
potentially providing materials for research into development, or for regenerative therapies.
Perhaps one of the most controversial areas within the industry, stem cell therapy is a growing
area of biotechnology which promises to revolutionise modern medicine37. Figure 3-5 illustrates
some of those diseases that stem cell therapy could potentially be used to treat or cure.
Box 3-3: Human embryonic stem cells
Embryonic stem cells, are cells derived from embryos. Most embryonic stem cells are derived
from embryos that develop from eggs that have been fertilised in vitro and then donated for
research purposes. They are not derived from eggs fertilised in a woman's body. The
controversy that surrounds their use in research is mainly related to the fact that the
extraction of stem cells from a human embryo requires the destruction of the embryo.
35
Friends of the Earth. Who benefits from GM crops? 2010
Available at: www.foeeurope.org/GMOs/Who_Benefits/who_benefits_full_report_2010.pdf [Accessed online
20/04/2010]
36
Cherry B. Acceptance of GM Crops Exaggerated. 2009.
Avalable at: www.i-sis.org.uk/GMCropsExaggerated.php [Accessed online 20/04/2010]
37
Stem Cell Global Foundation, Stem Cell Treatment of Parkinson’s Disease by SCGF, Mar 06, 2010.
www.prlog.org/10562390-stem-cell-treatment-of-parkinsons-disease-by-scgf.html [Accessed: 13.04.2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
23
Figure 3-5: Potential uses of stem cells38
One way to avoid the destruction of human embryos is through the creation of human-animal
chimeras or cybrids. A chimera is defined as a biological entity composed of genetic material
from members of two distinct species. Chimeras can be created by isolating a gene from one
species and inserting it in the embryo of another species39. Cybrids, or cytoplasmic hybrids, are
created by taking an egg from a non-human animal and removing the nucleus containing DNA.
This leaves only the cytoplasm or ooplasm of the animal egg which contains a small amount of
mitochondrial DNA. Then the nucleus from a human cell or an entire human cell is fused with
the enucleated animal egg to create a cybrid. The resulting cybrid possesses human nuclear
DNA and animal mitochondrial DNA.
The main benefit of chimera and cybrid technology is that adult human cells can be used and
there is no necessity to destroy a human embryo. One of the goals behind the creation of
cybrids and chimeras in stem cell research is for use as models for medical research. Full-term
chimeras and cybrids could also become potential sources of transplantable organs. The benefit
of using them is that the risk of rejection is reduced if the patient’s own DNA is used. In 2007,
the first full term human-sheep chimeras were produced for this purpose. The sheep’s livers
contained up to 15% human liver cells, which formed in clusters. Potentially, these clusters may
be transplanted as auxiliary organs in patients requiring treatment40.
Human-animal cybrid and chimera technology is not without controversy. Such research
inevitably raises the question of what it means to be human, as well as concerns for safety
where stem cells derived from such technology could be used for therapeutic purposes.
However, the impacts of such category of biotechnology on the environment are very indirect,
and would mainly be related to the increase of human health and life expectancy, thus having
an indirect impact on natural resource consumption.
38
Cell Basics: What are the potential uses of human stem cells and the obstacles that must be overcome before these
potential uses will be realised?. In Stem Cell Information World Wide Web site. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of
Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2009. cited Sunday, April 26, 2009 [Accessed 28/01/ 2010]
39
Knowles, L. P.; Ethics of research using hybrids, chimeras and cytoplasmic hybrids, Stem Cell Network, 2009
40
Eberl J. T., and Ballard R. A., Metaphysical and Ethical Perspectives on Creating Animal-Human Chimeras. Journal of
Medicine and Philosophy, 2009, 34: 470 – 486.
24
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
 Biofuels
The rising price of commodities is often closely linked to the price of one major commodity – oil.
Transport, production, and energy are all affected by the price of crude oil, which along with
being volatile, is an unsustainable resource. Concerns over rising prices and cost of
environmental inaction has led to increased policy attention to finding alternatives to oil.
Over the last years, biofuels have become subject of discussion in transport policy. .
Increasingly, countries are beginning to enforce laws which require the incorporation of
bioethanol in fuel products (notable E85). Biofuel production is predicted to grow significantly
within the next few decades.
Although the use of biofuels may experience expansion within the near future due to these
legislative changes, a shift is expected in years to come which may affect its use in land
transportation. In particular a 2009 IEA report predicted that by 2030, transport demand for oil
will fall significantly (by approximately 70%), with road transportation accounting for the
majority of this decrease41. This prediction has been based on a scenario which predicts that
internal combustion engines will account for only 40% of sales by 2030, being displaced plug-in
hybrids or electric vehicles41. This shift will also affect the production of biofuels for road
transportation vehicles. However, the study goes on to assume that biofuels will increase in use
in the aviation sector, where it is likely to have a more significant effect41.
Climate change is also a significant driver for the production of biofuels, which has been firstly
considered as an environmentally friendly solution to crude oil based fuels due to their
significantly lower GHG emissions potential. However, more recent estimations have shown the
mitigation potential of second-generation biofuels to be as high as 60-120%, similar to
sugarcane ethanol which has a mitigation potential of 70-110%42.
Although some figures appear to indicate that the use of biofuels may reduce GHG emissions,
in the case of first-generation biofuels, this hasn’t always been the case. In fact, some studies
claim that the GHG emissions impact from certain biofuels (in particular first-generation
biofuels), can be even higher than fossil fuels43. This appears to be the case where land use
change is taken into account, and depends on the specific biofuel change and kind of land use
change. As well as GHG emissions impacts, many are concerned that crop production will shift
from food supply to the production of biofuels. This is already seen in some countries such as
the U.S.A., where in 2007 over 30% of the maize harvest was dedicated to fuel Sport Utility
Vehicles (SUVs). It is estimated that the amount of maize used to produce enough E85 to fill one
tank of this type of vehicle could be enough to feed one person for a year. When oil prices are
41
International Energy Agency, Wolrd Energy Outlook, 2009
42
IEA Biofuel performance with respect to environmental and other criteria”, In: Biofuel Support Policies: An
Economic Assessment, 2008
43
IEA, Sustainable Production of Second -Generation Biofuels Potential and perspectives in major economies and
developing countries, 2010
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
25
high, biofuels are seen as profitable goods, which could tip the balance between fuel and food
production44. This effect has significant impacts on food prices, resulting in conflict45. Crop
growth also has important implications for water consumption. For example, it is estimated that
each litre of corn-starch based bioethanol produced requires at least 10 litres of water for crop
production44.
n some countries, these concerns are already being discussed and studies on the certification of
biofuels are currently being carried out which aim to determine the potential to curb the
negative impacts of biofuels46, related, in particular, to the scope of such certification (e;g. What
indicators impacts are based on). As of June 2010, the European Commission released two
communications and a decision which provide guidelines for businesses and MS to implement
the Renewable Energy Directive47. These documents also propose sustainability criteria which
should ensure only sustainable biofuels are used, such as second-generation sources. The
Commission also encouraged industry, governments and NGOs to launch voluntary certification
schemes for sustainable biofuels, outlining the standards they must meet to gain recognition in
the EU47.
In addition to proposing mitigation of environmental impacts through certification practices,
alternative crop sources for biofuels are also being considered, such as micro-algae, which
require less land and will likely not impact on global food supply . In addition to reducing land
use impacts of biofuels (linked to the higher impacts of first-generation biofuels), some studies
have shown that genetic modification could also raise the oil content of micro-algae, thereby
making it a more profitable and less impacting method of biofuel production .
 Synthetic biology
Synthetic biology is a relatively new field with important implications in biotechnology research.
It embraces both the design and construction of novel artificial biological pathways, organisms
or devices, and the redesign of existing natural biological systems48. The former uses nonnaturally occurring molecules to reproduce natural biological events, with the goal of creating
artificial life (e.g. biomaterials). The latter involves the extraction of interchangeable parts from
the natural world, which are then assembled into systems that function non-naturally. Synthetic
biology has already resulted in some important advances, especially in the diagnostics field.
Bayer’s assay is an example of a diagnostic tool which was built using this technology and which
is an important part of HIV and hepatitis patient care. Moreover, synthetic biology provides
scientists with valuable insights into the working of biological systems, and could potentially
lead to the ultimate goal of creating a fully functional organism. Synthetic biology marries
44
Italian Biotechnology Directory, Global biotech overview, 2008
45
See article: www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/217/46194.html; [Accessed 09/04/2010]
46
Haussman R., and Wagner R, Certification Strategies, Industrial Development and a Global Market for Biofuels,
2010
47
European Commission, Commission sets up system for certifying sustainable biofuels, In: EUROPA – Press Releases,
10 June 2010.
48
26
www.synbioproject.org/topics/synbio101/definition/ [Accessed the 02/02/2010]
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
principles of the biological, chemical and engineering fields to produce novel biological
functions and systems.
The first self-replicating synthetic organism was reportedly synthesised in May 2010, bringing
with it a series of uncertainties and potential impacts. Recently, the SYNBIOSAFE project was
completed, which aimed at fuelling discussion over the implications of synthetic biology49. The
results of this research have shown that despite the novel nature of this field, the concerns
surrounding its safety may increase within coming years50. In some ways this reflects the path
travelled by the biotechnological field as a whole, which has at times come under the fire of the
public due to concerns over safety and ethics. The SYNBIOSAFE project, however, seems to
indicate that debate is at least underway to determine the safety of such technology, as well as
the ethical concerns that may be raised by the public51.
Regarding the environment, a great deal of uncertainty still surrounds synthetic biology, in
relation to both its impacts, and its benefits. There is currently a movement towards researching
and developing synthetic biological systems which may help combat GHG emissions by CO2
fixation52. Other potential applications of synthetic biological systems in the environmental field
include bio-sensing and bioremediation53. As well as potential benefits, synthetic biological
systems could have environmental implications similar to those of GM crops. One of the similar
uncertainties surrounding this type of technology is whether systems (especially those able to
self-replicate), could break out and proliferate, causing environmental damage and loss of
biodiversity. Using such technology for bioremediation, agriculture and bio-sensing implies that
such systems would be released into the natural environment, increasing the potential for such
systems to become invasive if not carefully controlled53.
 Long-term outlook
In addition to presenting new opportunities and solutions, biotechnological advances also pose
a challenge to policy-makers. While rapid growth of the industry has been accompanied by
some basic knowledge of associated risks, longer term impacts may not be apparent for many
years to come. The challenge for policy-makers is to find an appropriate balance between
fostering innovation in the field, while safeguarding against possible negative impacts, both in
the short and long term. Certain mega-trends are predicted to influence biotechnological
research and development within the near future.

49
Rising concerns for the environment have important implications for biotechnological
research and innovation. Industries are looking towards biotechnology to help improve
SYNBIOSAFE project website: www.synbiosafe.eu [Accessed the 13/03/2010]
50
Torgensen H., Synthetic biology in society: learning from past experience?, Systems and Synthetic Biology,2009,
3:9–17
51
Schmidt M, Special issue: Societal aspects of synthetic biology?, Systems and Synthetic Biology,2009, 3:1-2
52
Zhang Y. P., Artificial Photosynthesis Would Unify the Electricity-Carbohydrate-Hydrogen Cycle for Sustainability,
Nature Precedings, 2010.
53
June 2010
Tucker J. B., and Zilinskas R. A., The Promise and Perils of Synthetic Biology, 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
27
resource efficiency and reduce environmental impacts. Global warming, in particular,
has taken centre stage as one of the most important environmental issues of the 21st
century, and this is likely to be a driver of innovation in the biotechnology industry in
the future. Biotechnology may contribute to reducing global carbon emissions through
such technologies as crop growth (carbon sinks) and production of biofuels.

The impact of pollution on ecosystems and human health is a growing concern which is
now being approached using biotechnology. Novel techniques such as bioremediation
through the use microorganisms or animals are increasingly being viewed as a
potentially viable tool for mitigating the effects of pollution54. With the advent of
synthetic biology, novel organisms or biological systems may also be developed to
tackle environmental pollution55.

Climate change, water scarcity, resource depletion and political conflict are leading to
growing concerns over the stability of food supply, both in the developed and
developing world. Growing demand for food and biofuels is predicted to raise the price
of food over the next two decades56. The agricultural sector will likely become an area
of focus for policy makers, and drive innovation. It is hoped that biotechnologies such as
GM crop production may help to alleviate some of the pressures associated with world
food shortages.

The scourge of disease, particularly global pandemics like HIV/AIDS, malaria,
tuberculosis and new viral infections like bird flu and swine flu are driving the medical
biotechnology industry to develop new therapies and vaccines.

The trend towards an ageing population also has important implications for medical
biotechnology, particularly the increasing demand for therapies to treat common
diseases (e.g. especially diseases of a cognitive nature). A recent OECD report has
predicted that by 2030, the global population over the age of 60 will increase, while the
population of those under the age of 15 will contract. Although this is likely to occur in
both developed and developing regions, this trend will more likely affect developed
countries. In this area, the working population is expected to drop from 63% to 56%.
New therapies and treatment options will need to meet the growing number of ageing
individuals56.

Rapidly increasing demand for biofuels has enhanced the value crops used in the
production of biofuels, paradoxically putting biofuel production in conflict with food
supply. It is hoped that within the near future, biotechnology may provide the necessary
solution to reduce conflict between food security and production and the demand for
biofuels (e.g. culturing microalgae).
54
Gifford S., Dunstan R. H., O’Connor W, Koller C. E. and MacFarlane G. R. Aquatic zooremediation: deploying animals
to remediate contaminated aquatic environments. TRENDS in Biotechnology, 2006, 25(2): 60-65
55
Synthetic biology website: www.syntheticbiology.org/FAQ.html [Accessed the 02/02/ 2010]
56
OECD website: www.puck.sourceoecd.org/vl=3620196/cl=55/nw=1/rpsv/cgibin/fulltextew.pl?prpsv=/ij/oecdthemes/99980088/v2009n3/s5/p51.idx [Accessed the 02/02/ 2010]
28
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends

The rapidly evolving biotechnology research environment will need to adapt to changing
market needs and growing competition, particularly in areas like synthetic biology and
stem cell technology.

There is an increasing trend toward ethical scrutiny of the biotechnology industry, which
could impact the growth of the industry negatively if not given due attention. Genetic
modification of crops and human stem cell research, for example, are two of the most
controversial areas of this field. Such technologies must be adequately and
appropriately regulated to alleviate public concerns.
Although traditionally, the biotechnology field is known for its invaluable presence in the
health care field, more and more this sector is developing solutions for novel issues and
filling new niche markets. Issues such as climate change and growing energy supply
demands are example areas where biotechnology could have a significant impact within the
next decade. With changing attitudes toward the environment and growing concerns over
diminishing resources, biotechnology is likely to become a strong area of development in
efforts to tackle environmental concerns.
3.1.3. INFORMATION SCIENCES
3.1.3.1
Definition
Information science is an interdisciplinary science, primarily concerned with the analysis,
collection, classification, manipulation, storage, retrieval and dissemination of information57.
Information science does not inherently mean the inclusion of technology. However, in the
context of this study, information science will be for all purposes synonymous with information
technology.
Information technology (IT) is the leveraging of computer-based systems in order to apply
information science in a practical manner. IT is truly horizontal and cross-cutting, touching
nearly every European, on a daily basis. IT covers the mobile phone network, television on
demand, e-mail, social networking, and, of course, the previously cited open-source
encyclopaedia, Wikipedia.
3.1.3.2
Acceleration of technological change
 Current situation
The development of Internet in itself must be considered as the dominant megatrend within
information technology, as it is the medium which enables nearly all of the megatrends
discussed here. However, as the Internet functions as an umbrella term for other, more specific
technologies to be discussed below, it will not be discussed further.
57
Hawkins, Donald T. Information Science Abstracts: Tracking the Literature of Information Science. Part 1: Definition
and Map. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology. 2001.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
29
There are two types of megatrends involving IT:

Developments in the technology used, such as advances in computer hardware, systems
integration, and software techniques, most often due to market demand. Often these
developments also act as drivers.

New or growing areas applying IT, such as business, health, science, energy, and
environment
These two types can be demonstrated with the evolution of Wikipedia. Before Wikipedia
became the world’s largest encyclopaedia, the wiki software was first developed. Seen by itself,
wiki software is part of a megatrend that is changing the face of the Internet, in which the
power to create content is being given to users. However, applied to the idea of encyclopaedias,
the wiki software became Wikipedia and completely revolutionised the way in which people
obtain simple information, whether for a serious scientific study or to settle an argument among
friends.
Another example could be that of robotics, which combine the disciplines of information
technology with biotechnology and cognitive science. Increases in computing power and
decreases in size have been applied to medicine to create advanced robotic devices that can
mimic human body parts, and even communicate with the brain.
The following sections summarise the main megatrends within the immense field of information
technology. Ubiquitous broadband access is a megatrend that provides the infrastructure which
enables many of the other megatrends, most notably cloud and pervasive computing. New
methods of information retrieval are revolutionising the way people obtain knowledge. Usergenerated content enables lay people to exchange ideas instantaneously, posing a problem to
the traditional business model of for-pay professionally created content. Because of the
advances within information technology itself, it is being applied to many other unrelated
sectors. Lastly, the distant future promises an upheaval of the internal infrastructure of the
computer in an attempt to perform computation using bio-, photonic, and quantum means.
One major umbrella megatrend is the constant evolution of IT and computing infrastructure. In
contrast to other technologies, IT hardware and software has experienced an extremely short
development period. According to Moore’s law58, processing power doubles every 18 months.
With processing power increasing exponentially, new methods and applications for using this
power emerge. It must be noted that with this increase in power, so generally goes the energy
consumption of the information technology sector as a whole. This rapid increase is indeed a
cause for major concern.
58
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors
that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. It is named
after the co-founder of Intel, who described the trend. Source: Wikipedia, www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law,
[Accessed 09/04/2010].
30
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Currently, over 93% of EU-25 residents have access to broadband Internet59. It is expected that
access will become universal within the next ten years. A megatrend in itself, ubiquitous
broadband access is also the driver for many of the other megatrends, providing the
infrastructure needed in order to implement revolutionary new information technology
solutions. Nearly all other megatrends rely on this connectivity in order to create an impact.
 Cloud computing
Cloud computing is a megatrend in the way computer processing and information storage is
handled. Traditionally, powerful user-owned computing devices would perform tasks and store
data locally, with software installed directly on the device. The Internet would be accessed
occasionally when using email services, or within the confines of the web browser or instant
messaging program. However, the vision of the future is that Internet services will be accessed
using lightweight, low-power devices. The majority of computing power will be delivered from a
“cloud” of large data centres, which share the load of storing and processing user data 60 (Figure
3-6).
59
Europe’s Digital Competitiveness Report, Volume 1: i2010 – Annual Information Society Report 2009,
Benchmarking i2010: Trends and main achievements. COM(2009) 390. European Commission. 2009.
60
Dikaiakos M.,et al. Cloud Computing: Distributed Internet Computing for IT and Scientific Research. IEEE Internet
Computing. September/October 2009.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
31
Figure 3-6: Cloud computing architecture61
Relying on the ubiquitous broadband access, cloud computing uses the end-user device as a
facade to present information that comes from the cloud. “A cloud is a type of parallel and
distributed system consisting of a collection of interconnected and virtualised computers that
are dynamically provisioned and presented as one or more unified computing resources” 62.
By abstracting the computing core from the end-user experience, cloud computing is highly
scalable and can shift resources in order to respond dynamically to the computing needs of the
user. Because of the scalability of cloud computing, computing products are beginning to be
offered as a service, most notably through Software as a Service (SaaS), Infrastructure as a
Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). Selling these products as a service lowers costs,
as multiple users can share a singular product, and it also removes the need for onsite technical
expertise. All computing needs can be outsourced to a specialised cloud operator.
In addition, cloud computing allows multiple devices to access the same backend data. Thus, the
information available on a home desktop PC can be the same as that available while using a
laptop at the workplace or a mobile phone anywhere in the world.
Considering that replacing an individual user’s need for high power computing with efficient and
centralised data centres, cloud computing theoretically could reduce the overall energy
61
www.bostoninteractive.com/newsletter/images/cloud.gif [Accessed the 01/02/2010]
62
Buyya R. Et al. Market-Oriented Cloud Computing: Vision, Hype, and Reality for Delivering IT Services as Computing
Utilities. 10th IEEE International Conference on High Performance Computing and Communications, 2008.
32
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
consumption of IT equipment. However, data centre expansion is happening at such a quick rate
that energy consumption continues to increase.
 Pervasive computing
Pervasive computing takes the idea of cloud computing one giant step further by improving the
traditional screen/keyboard/mouse interface and adding integrated devices and sensors that
are constantly in contact with the network. This technology disappears to the user as it passively
forms the link between the user and communication network without any explicit user input.
Rather than specifically providing input via a designated device, pervasive computing promises
to interpret normal user actions and assist during operation, creating an intelligent
environment. This intelligent environment often contains63:

Traditional input devices, such as mice or keyboards, and output devices, such as
speakers or light-emitting diodes

Wireless mobile devices, such as pagers, personal digital assistance, cell phones,
palmtops, etc.

Smart devices, such as intelligent appliances, floor tiles with embedded sensors, and
biosensors
One of the most common early implementations of pervasive computing is radio frequency
identification (RFID). RFID allows simple, short distance communication between an embedded
chip and a receiving device, and is commonly used in applications such as transportation
systems, key cards for doors, and shipping logistics.
The structural framework of pervasive computing can be seen in Figure 3-7. As illustrated, every
element of the system is pervasive, or ubiquitous, in order to achieve constant communication
between the parts. Pervasive devices sit with the user and communicate with applications
through networking and middleware.
63
June 2010
Saha D. and Mukherjee A. Pervasive Computing: A Paradigm for the 21st Century. Computer, 36: 25-31, 2003.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
33
Figure 3-7: Pervasive computing framework (Saha et al., 2003)
As will be described in more detail shortly, pervasive computing can be applied horizontally to
many sectors in order to make “smart” systems. In particular, this is expected to have a large
impact on energy and the environment, as extensive sensing networks will allow for the detailed
collection of data. Such data can be analysed to pinpoint improvements to reduce energy
consumption and environmental impact.
 User-generated content
The Internet is the first media in which users can create content and distribute it
instantaneously to billions of other people for almost no cost. Professionally generated content
dominated previous forms of media, such as books, radio, television, and software. However,
the rise of user-generated content has created a major disruptor of the previous trends and
promises to revolutionise the way people share ideas.
The Internet was born with the intention of giving people the ability to share ideas quickly and
easily64. In the 1990s, the trend shifted towards large corporations producing static websites.
However, after the dot-com bubble of 2001, the Web 2.0 rose from the ashes, built with the
user in mind and enabling easy sharing and collaboration. Amazingly popular websites, such as
YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, eBay, and Wikipedia, are all members of the Web 2.0 revolution and
focus on user-generated content.
In addition, traditional businesses have begun to integrate user-generated content into their
core operations. CNN asks users to submit “iReports”, or amateur perspectives on news from
around the world, which are then displayed on the website and on television. Amazon.com
64
Kaplan, A.M. and Haenlein, M. Users of the world, unite! The challenges and opportunities of Social Media.
Business Horizons, Volume 53, Issue 1, pp. 59-68, 2010, 2009.
34
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
allows users to write detailed reviews of products in order to share opinions with other
potential buyers.
Open source software is another revolutionary aspect of user-generated content. Often
competing directly with fee-based software such as Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Office, and
Adobe Photoshop, open source software is a user created solution that provides a free
alternative such as Linux, OpenOffice, and Gimp, respectively. Just as with web content,
traditional companies are embracing the open source trend as a means for saving money, and
even building new products: IBM is reported to have spent over $1 billion in 2001 on open
source projects65.
 Penetration to other sectors
Information technology has grown into a horizontal technology that affects nearly all sectors.
There are very few industries that have not been transformed by the digitisation of documents,
access to the Internet, ability to apply sensors to traditional operations, etc. Very few
technology developments have such widespread integration as information technology. While
not independent of the other megatrends presented here, IT is penetrating sectors that were
previously untouched.
In conjunction with concern over global warming and fuel costs, IT is being increasingly applied
to energy and environmental issues in order to ensure transparency and control. The electric
grid is becoming the “smart” grid, which means a network that transports not only electricity
but also information. Software is being developed to help track carbon emissions and other
environmental impacts. In addition, IT is being touted as a tool for energy efficiency by
“dematerialising” other sectors66.
In addition, IT is playing a greater role in the health field. Hospitals are becoming digital and
paperless, improving services and cutting costs. For example, researchers have shown that
computerised automation of notes and records can lead to a 15% decrease in likelihood that a
patient will die while hospitalised, among other benefits67. Complex devices such as artificial
body parts, including hearts, eyes, and limbs, are being developed by combining the fields of
biotechnology, information technology, and robotics. IT is also assisting a rapidly ageing general
population to prevent Alzheimer’s disease and remain mentally active68.
65
Lerner J. and Tirole J. The Economics of Technology Sharing: Open Source and Beyond. Journal of Economic
Perspectives. American Economic Association, 19:99-120, 2005.
66
BIO Intelligence Service. Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency. European
Commission DG INFSO. September, 2008. ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/sustainable-growth/ict4eefinal-report_en.pdf [Accessed the 02/02/2010]
67
Lund, A. Patients Benefit from “Paperless” Hospitals. Journal of American Dentistry Association, Vol 140, March
2009.
68
Cabrera, M. and Malanowski, N. Information and Communication Technology for Active Ageing, Opportunities and
Challenges for the European Union. Volume 23 Assistive Technology Research Series, 2008.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
35
Increasingly applied to administration procedures, IT can replace paper and thus making
processes more efficient, transparent, and more environmentally friendly. The effect of IT can
be seen in “paper-less” offices, health care systems, and e-voting systems, among many others.
However, in many cases, the Paperless Office Paradox can be seen, in which increased use of ICT
leads to an average of a 40% increase in paper use69. This increase is due to the ubiquity of
printers, which facilitate paper consumption with digital material. To bridge the gap between
theoretical dematerialisation potential and the Paperless Office Paradox, further effort needs to
be placed on the utility and economic savings of going paperless.
IT opens up access to time-value information to the public. For example, a major shift has
occurred as the average person can now trade stocks from his home computer, rather than
have to rely on a professional service to do so. This shift is extending to other sectors such as
energy, as consumers demand more refined information and take control of the decisions they
make.
Information technology has clearly changed the way people retrieve information. “Google”, the
name of the most popular search engine, has even become a commonly used verb70.
Information is being obtained in drastically different ways than it was even ten years ago.
Wikipedia has become the world’s largest encyclopaedia, as well as being free and user-created.
All information is indexed and searchable, thus changing the definition of an “expert”, as nearly
all people have easy access to infinite and free information71.
 Long-term outlook
The development of new computing processing infrastructures is an emerging trend that is
attracting significant interest from the scientific community. Although they are still many years
from widespread use, bio-, photonic, and quantum computing may revolutionise the building
blocks of computers, shifting away from the almost ubiquitous medium of electricity.
Photonic computing replaces electricity with light, thus allowing for a quicker transfer of
information, using less energy. In addition, photonic computing is more scalable than traditional
processors. This is because as computing power increases, more electricity is needed, causing
significant problems with heat. This issue is solved by using light, which produces negligible
amounts of waste heat. Optical solutions are already being implemented within high bandwidth,
long distance networks, such as with fibre optic broadband.
Quantum computing is the least developed but most promising of the new computing
infrastructures. Also called quantum information processing (QIP), quantum computing uses
69
York, R. Ecological Paradoxes: William Stanley Jevons and the Paperless Office. Human Ecology Review, Vol 13, No
2, 2006.
70
From wiktionary, en.wiktionary.org/wiki/google, [Accessed the 02/02/2010]: to google (third-person singular
simple present googles, present participle googling, simple past and past participle googled); (transitive) To search for
(something) on the Internet using Google™.
71
36
Carr L. and Harnad S. Offloading Cognition onto the Web. TBA. University of Southampton.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
quantum mechanics for information storage, communication and computation. Theoretically,
quantum computing could enable huge improvements in computational efficiency and
communication security by exploiting certain peculiarities of quantum mechanics, such as the
spin of sub-atomic particles.72
In the long term, the expectation is that new computing technologies will blend with pervasive
computing devices and ubiquitous broadband in order to create a truly “connected” society,
with information constantly being sensed, saved, and accessible. This level of connectivity is
beginning to be seen with the rapid rise of smart mobile devices that function as phones,
cameras, music players, and computers which can browse the internet. These devices will shrink
in size and contain more power and functionality, eventually replacing non-electronic items
such as wallets (by allowing access to money, photos, business cards, etc).
The trend in pervasive computing is clearly moving towards the integration of all aspects of life,
creating smart environments. The beginning of this trend can be seen with the rise of the
“smart” grid, but also in traffic congestion management systems in which vehicles are
automatically charged when they enter a city, e.g. London. These sensory systems can also be
applied on the personal level to constantly assess personal health, for example. As new
computing technologies develop and computing power increases, device size will shrink, thus
further increasing levels of connectivity.
3.1.4. COGNITIVE SCIENCE
3.1.4.1
Definition
Cognitive science is the integrated interdisciplinary study of the mind and the brain, defined as
the function of processing information, in the double sense of computation (the formal
dynamics of information processing) and the structure (the physical mechanisms which underlie
the dynamics at the neural level), respectively. In recent years, due to the increasing role of
neuroscience, the field is often referred to as ‘Cognitive neuroscience’ (which is a misnomer
insofar as parts of it are not directly related to neuroscience); again, some writers have wished
to stress the plurality of disciplines and paradigms involved, and have proposed to speak of the
cognitive science in the plural form (on the model of ‘the social sciences’ or ‘the life sciences’).
However ‘cognitive science’ remains the preferred, most neutral label. Thus, cognitive science
can be defined as an assemblage of studies having in common a notion of an informationalcomputational system73. Understanding the relationship between brain and mind requires an
understanding at different levels of this function/structure interface and involves a large range
of disciplines such as psychology, neuroscience, evolutionary biology, linguistics, philosophy,
anthropology and other social sciences, in addition to formal methods from computer science,
mathematics and physics. Such contributions from multiple disciplines have allowed the
72
Knill, E., Laflamme, R., Milburn, G.J. A scheme for efficient quantum computation with linear optics. Nature,
Volume 409, 2001.
73
June 2010
Andler D. Cognitive science. Key Technologies for Europe - Brussels, 2005.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
37
development of new methodologies which have made it possible to overcome some of the
drastic limitations of the traditional programmes in scientific psychology. Cognitive science
covers a very broad range of themes including memory, problem solving, categorisation, but
also emotions, social cognition, linguistic competence, perception, action, selfhood,
consciousness, etc.: in short, every process or state which is part of the mental life of humans
(and other animals), whether consciously experienced or not, whether abstract and detached,
or particular and engaged, falls in the domain of cognitive science. The current development of
cognitive science allows this discipline to be exploited and/or enriched by other knowledge
fields such as social sciences, education, computer sciences, health sciences, etc73. In the
following sections some examples of cognitive science applications are provided, as well as
applications involving inter-linkages with other sciences and technologies and overall long term
trends. In addition, the main issues and uncertainties related to this field will be discussed.
Importantly, through influencing social and political processes, cognitive science can also have
indirect benefits/impacts on the environment. These aspects are discussed in section 4.
3.1.4.2
Acceleration of technological change
In the following paragraphs some relevant examples of cognitive science applications are
provided.
 Current situation
 Learning processes and education
Among the functions of the human brain, the ability to learn is one of the most characteristic
aspects of human kind and is strictly associated with the definition of human intelligence and its
evolution. Learning is the key to advanced cognitive abilities such as those of the human being
and it is itself a enabling ability, which is part cognitive (in the sense of involving computational
and representational processes of the functioning, developing mind/brain), part architectural
(i.e. due to the initial structuring of the brain, which encodes innate ‘knowledge’). Thus from the
earliest beginnings of cognitive science, learning has been a key area of investigation.
 Computational approaches
A better understanding of learning processes can be used to develop computational
approaches. ‘Smart’ machines (computers, robots) depend on learning, just as children do,
because it is impossible to ‘spoon-feed’ them everything they need to know in order to deal
efficiently with the ever-changing situations which they encounter in a complex world. There
exist a wealth of models of machine learning, from symbolic learning to formal learning theory
(initially developed in order to account for first-language acquisition), to neural nets (based on
an idea developed by Hebb, a Canadian psychologist, in the 1950s) and to PAC learning, which is
a statistically-inspired model developed by theoretical computer scientists.
PAC stands for ‘Probably Approximately Correct’ and is a model for a probabilistic framework
for the study of learning. In PAC model, the concept of learning is formally defined using
probability theory. In practice, if a large enough sample of randomly chosen tasks is presented
to a neural network, then it should be likely that, after learning, the neural network will perform
38
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
additional tasks in an approximately correct way. Two main aspects of the PAC learning theory
are currently debated: the question of how many tasks should be used to efficiently train the
artificial neural network, and the question of whether learning can be achieved using a fast
algorithm. These are known, respectively, as the sample complexity and computational
complexity problems74.
 Neuroscientific approaches
The brain, unsurprisingly, exhibits a remarkable capacity to adapt in response to external
circumstances. This capacity appears at different levels, from entire areas of the brain
undergoing a global reallocation of function, following a lesion, a traumatic event, or intensive,
expert-level training (this is known as the plasticity of the brain), to the cellular level, where
neuronal ensembles undergo synaptic changes which result in learning appropriate responses to
certain classes of stimuli, with intermediate scales where complex skills and information get
‘stored’ in predetermined areas of the brain. The time scales also vary, from the very short-span
memorising of a non-conscious stimulation to the life-long functional structuring of the brain.
 Psychological approaches
Psychological approaches are the oldest set of approaches, which study the way in which people
(and animals) actually learn various skills, including language, and have benefited from a close
contact with the two previously mentioned approaches. We now have a much better
understanding of how people learn, how much and how fast, during which periods of their
development. It turns out that learning is, for the most part, a specialised business: the
processes underlying first-language acquisition are separate from those which lead to, for
instance, mathematical knowledge, or mastery of tennis, etc.
 Implications for education
New findings in cognitive science are challenging the basis of traditional school education,
including the definition of intelligence and ability. In particular, a better understanding of
learning impairments facilitates the development of ad hoc educational tools. Moreover, a
better knowledge of the learning processes in normal individuals plays a crucial role in the
development of innovative teaching methods75. In this context, several research themes
involving cognitive science are currently a priority in the field of education, including: genetics
and cognitive development, memory, emotional development, acquisition and regulation of
social competences, the acquisition of communication in school, strategies of the teacher in
situations of interaction, from lay to scientific knowledge, development and learning of artistic
activities and perceptions, etc 76.
74
Anthony M and Biggs N. Computational Learning Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2000.
75
The Jossey-Bass Reader on the Brain and Learning (Paperback), by Jossey-Bass Publishers and Michael Fullan, 2006.
76
www.groupe-compas.net; [Accessed 22/03/2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
39
 Neuroimaging and imaging genetics
Neuroimaging refers to the diverse techniques for visualising the brain and its activity. The main
purpose of neuroimaging is to find out where in the brain the various cognitive tasks are
performed, and in what order. Basically, neuroimaging permits to discover the “information
flow” corresponding to various tasks (Figure 3-8).
The most popular techniques include computerised tomography (CT) scanning and magnetic
resonance imaging (MRI). Both create complete 3D images of the brain by performing layer-bylayer scans. The CT scanner uses x-rays, while MRI creates an image on the basis of the
hydrogen concentration. The overall image is reconstructed by computer processing. The
knowledge thus acquired concerns both the normal and the lesioned or otherwise
malfunctioning brain, and can lead to a deep understanding of the normal and abnormal mind,
with applications to rehabilitation, the prevention or proper care of Alzheimer and other
neurogenerative diseases, etc.
At the intracellular level, imaging genetics has emerged as a powerful and sensitive approach to
the study of functional genetic variations and brain responses in psychiatric and neurologic
disorders. These techniques present several advantages and are widely recognised as effective
in vivo tools to measure the effects of genes on different parts of the brain involved in specific
moral, emotional, cognitive functions, resulting in certain behavioural patterns. For instance,
the application of imaging genetics on neurodegenerative diseases may provide precious
information to predict, and consequently to prevent certain diseases (e.g. cognitive aging) and
risky behaviour77. Thus, the approach of imaging genetics now allows to link complex
behavioural patterns and predispositions to psychiatric syndromes with functional brain
differences at the intracellular level, and to explain these from a biological perspective78.
77
Mattay et al. Neurobiology of cognitive aging: Insights from imaging genetics. Biological Psychology, 79, 2008.
78
Hariri AR and Weinberger DR. Imaging genomics. British Medical Bulletin, 65, 2003.
40
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Figure 3-8: The auditory cortex in the brain79
 Multilingualism
Understanding the development and functioning of human language is a complex issue that
needs the contribution of several disciplines included in or interacting with cognitive science,
such as linguistics, psychology, anthropology, basic neuroscience, etc. The process of language
production, use, the inter-linkages between thought and languages, the relationship within the
linguistic function and the brain structure, are the processes studied by cognitive science. One
example of cognitive neurosciences application in this field is for instance the study of the brain
functioning of bilingual and multilingual individuals. Cognitive neurosciences try to answer to
questions such as defining which brain areas are activated during the use of each language by a
multilingual speaker or what the impacts of learning an additional language at different ages on
brain representation. The understanding of such mechanisms, despite the progresses made, is
still in its infancy, and a better understanding will be extremely useful in developing appropriate
educational plans and to answer questions such as: how can people acquire a multilingual
ability? Do they perceive and express emotions similarly or differently in their respective
languages? Does the first language remain forever the language of the heart? Answering these
questions is particularly important in the constantly increasing number of multilingual
individuals in Europe and in the world80.
 Mirror neurons
Humans and primates in general are very sensitive to the action of others, to learn and to
organise social interaction. In particular, a neurophysiological mechanism, the mirror-neuron
mechanism, appears to play a fundamental role in the understanding and imitation of actions,
as well as language. Mirror neurons are neuronal cells firstly discovered in monkeys. Such
neurons are electrically active when monkeys perform certain tasks (such as reaching out to a
peanut), but also when monkeys watch another individual performing the very same task. The
discovery of mirror neurons is one of the major discoveries in the last decade for neuroscience,
since their existence is also present in humans and could explain some human characteristics:
mirror neurons are often thought to be the natural basis of social cognition, humans’ (and to a
limited extent, other primates’) capacity to interact with conspecifics, to interpret and predict
their intentions and the meaning, the goal of their behaviour81. Moreover, damages in these
79
Source :www.images.google.fr/imgres?imgurl=http://www.ascdeaf.com/blog/wpcontent/uploads/2006/09/brain%25202.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ascdeaf.com/blog/%3Fp%3D122&usg=__67t9x8
1S1G9DfiQv27AJsBdSSo=&h=313&w=466&sz=16&hl=fr&start=22&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=7EislFAwPkYvqM:&tbnh=86&tbnw=128&pre
v=/images%3Fq%3Dstimulated%2Blanguage%2Bareas%2Bbrain%26start%3D21%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dfr%26sa%3DN
%26rlz%3D1R2SKPB_frFR328%26ndsp%3D21%26tbs%3Disch:1
80
Lasagabaster D and Huguet A. Multilingualism in European bilingual contexts: language use and attitudes.
Multilingual matters, 2007.
81
June 2010
Rizzolatti G and Craighero L. The Mirror Neuron System. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 27, 2004.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
41
cerebral structures can be responsible for mental deficits such as autism, where the primary
characteristic is a very impoverished communication with others.
 Long-term outlook
The field of cognitive science is one of the most challenging scientific enterprises of this century.
The scientific community is constantly debating to what extent this discipline will meet its goals
and the quantity and quality of the knowledge produced. The current scientific developments
make society expect innovative societal and economic applications. The future potential
applications cover a vast range of sectors ranging from medicine, pedagogy, communication and
decision-making tools (Box 3-4).
Box 3-4: Neuroceticals
Neuroceticals are an example of the new products that generate new states of being and
thinking. These products will be available on the market thanks to the development of
cognitive science. They are molecules that act as highly efficient neuro-modulators and have
negligible side effects. They can be divided in:

cogniceuticals, which focus on decision making, learning, attention and memory
processes

emoticeuticals, which influence feelings, moods, motivation, and awareness,

sensoceuticals, which could help in restoring and modify our sensorial capacities82.
Moreover, the impacts on socio-cultural aspects, perception of self, policy, economy and ethics
should also be considered. The fact that cognitive science is a well-connected network of
interdisciplinary research programmes makes it possible for this discipline to be particularly
effective for exploitation by other scientific and technological fields, such as computer sciences,
law, social sciences, trade, etc. For instance, as brain imaging advances, neuro-marketing will
become a significant growing sector that will use such technologies to gain a better
understanding of how and why people react to specific marketing campaigns. Neuro-education
will also emerge as a discipline teaching individuals how to take neuroceuticals to improve their
cognitive skills, thus enabling people to learn and retain information faster82.
In the future, a cluster of long term trends are expected to influence the development and
utilisation of cognitive science, either alone or in combination with other scientific and
technological disciplines. Some examples are given in section 3.2.
Such long term trends include:

82
42
Globalisation, defined as growth in economic and societal activities that crosses national
and regional borders. This will lead to stronger competition for innovative products in
general, including applications of cognitive science.
Lynch Z. Neurotechnology and society (2010-2060). Annals New York Academy of Sciences, 1013, 2004.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends

The ageing society, leading to a change in the composition of the population, which will
be at the origin of greater demands in several areas, including health and mental care
(e.g. to cure cognitive deficiencies).

A dominance of information or knowledge functions, characterising the knowledge or
information society. In politics, business and public institutions, knowledge and
information, as well as access to them, have become a factor of power and a
competitive parameter. This will probably lead to an important increase in cognitive
science-based applications aiming at improving human cognitive skills and access to
information.

Security, in its many different forms, will become a matter of ever greater importance,
with the increasing prosperity in the wealthy parts of the world. This includes military
and terrorist threats as well as security for the individual in the form of e.g. surveillance
and alarm systems. Such an aspect could be at the origin of an important development
of cognitive science technologies for defence purposes.

Increasing demand for entertainment and exciting experiences, as a result of increasing
prosperity in the wealthier parts of the world. A very strong entertainment economy is
currently developing in rich areas of the world. Moreover, there is a need to integrate
the increasing high-tech development with more human aspects, such as art and
spirituality. A better understanding of the inter-linkages between the brain and the
mind, and of emotions and motivations, will be provided by cognitive science (allied to a
newly formed federation of disciplines known as ‘affective sciences’). This is expected to
be promoted in order to develop increasingly versatile devices.

Need for better life-spaces, intended as the interplay between physical space and social
processes, is constantly increasing. There is an ever-growing demand for life-spaces that
are arranged to meet people’s needs. Cognitive science can contribute to the
development of technologies for the optimisation of how people experience living space
and how they move in it.
For these reasons, both the more developed and the developing countries are increasly
investing in this area. In the long term, cognitive science represents an important challenge for
Europe at the scientific and socio-economic level.
The main issue for Europe will be not only to invest in this field and develop innovative
applications, but also to define its role as a main actor in such a revolutionary attempt to
describe mind and brain inter-linkages. As has already occurred in other scientific fields, an
underestimation of the means needed, leading to an exclusion of Europe from the scientific
debate, would encourage the best scientists to leave Europe and/or to give up in their efforts.
Following the example of Japan, China and now India are in the process of developing a strong
infrastructure in neuroscience, animal labs, robotics and other technology-intensive tools for
cognitive science, both fundamental and applied. They are well-prepared to take over Europe in
basic research, which remains ahead, but not for long, if the required effort is not made soon.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
43
3.2.
MEGATREND II: THE CONVERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN NBIC
WILL CONTINUE
Each of the previously mentioned converging technologies can be applied in a vast range of
applications involving other converging technologies, and, at the end, a variety of products and
processes can be developed (Table 3-2 and Figure 3-9).
Table 3-2: Table summarising the existing and possible inter-linkages among converging technologies
Nanotechnologies
Biotechnologies
Biotechnologies
Nanomedicine
IT
Health care IT
systems
Monitoring of
biological indicators
Nanomaterials
containing biological
components
AntibodyNanoparticle
modelling
Nanobiosensors
IT
Computer nanochips
and processors
Bioinformatics: Proteomics,
Genomics, Metabolomics,
Transcriptomics
Biocomputing
Cognitive science
Nanobiochips
GM animal models
Artificial
Intelligence
Nanoscale multispectral sensors
Nanoelectronic neuroimplants
44
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Molecular tools to study brain
cells
Speech recognition
devices
Immunohistochemistry used in
neurosciences
Prosthetic limbs
GM animal models and used in
neurosciences (e.g. humanmouse neural chimeras),
neuroendocrinology and
neuropharmacology
Brain-machine
interfaces
Figure 3-9: Facilitation among converging technologies: arrows represent positive interactions which
favour technology development.
As information technology penetrates nearly every other sector, there are many, obvious interlinkages with the other converging technologies. Nearly all researchers rely on IT to search for
articles, write reports, and store results. Moreover, in many scientific areas (e.g. molecular
biology) the ICT are an indispensable tool of progress and to some extent they can replace
human researchers. Most experiments rely on IT in order to obtain data, for example when
studying the human brain. In addition, nearly all electronic devices use nanotechnology within
computer chips, which contain the processing power of the device. However, this overview will
neglect these inter-linkages because of their very general nature.
In this context it is useful to stress the inter-linkages between cognitive science and information
sciences in neuroengineering. Neuroengineering is defined as a field in which engineering and
computational approaches are applied to create interfaces between the brain and a machine.
Such interfaces can be applied at the periphery of the central nervous system (e.g. prosthetic
limbs) or at its core (e.g. directly in contact with the brain).
Of course the development of neuroengineered interfaces, namely brain interfaces, speech
recognition technologies, artificial neural networks, and robotics, depends on research work on
the interaction between neuronal cells and microelectronic devices, which has to be compatible
with signal transduction within the body and non-invasive83.
Such a relationship is particularly relevant for cognitive science, because it allows theories on
brain functioning to be tested in a different model in addition to experimental, observational
and deductive models. Thus, computer modelling can be an important tool to test cognitive
theories. In this case, we talk of cognitive robotics. Cognitive robotics are also the main link
between cognitive science and the applied industrial R&D and help in developing the presence
of research in the society.
Therefore, with the development of pervasive computing, the human-machine interface is
becoming ever more important. Pervasive sensors and devices do not have traditional input
devices, but rather interpret the actions and intentions of the user, almost as if they could read
the user’s mind. In this case we talk of Artificial Consciousness (A.C.). The final objective of A.C.
development is to obtain a scientific definition of consciousness in order to model it and use it
as a basis of cognitive architecture. The possibility to create an artificially conscious entity has
83
Donoghue JP. Connecting Cortex to Machines: Recent Advances in Brain Interfaces. Nature, Neuroscience
Supplement, 5, 2002; Musallam S, et al. Cognitive Control Signals for Neural Prosthetics, Science 305, 2004.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
45
been present in human imagination since the ancient times, the promethean myth being the
most ancient and the creatures of science fiction movies the most recent73.
Artificial intelligence uses information technology to mimic human thought. While often the
antagonist in works of science fiction, artificial intelligence is in fact an extremely useful
technique to solve and automate previously complex problems in various sectors. For example,
artificial intelligence is being applied to the quickly growing field of photovoltaics in order to
improve design considering weather, location, and sizing needs84.
Cognitive science and biotechnology find links most readily in the neurobiology field. For
decades, the biotechnology field has aided in deciphering the development and diseases of the
human brain, as well as creating therapies for cognitive diseases (e.g. neuropharmacology). One
example of an overlap between the two technologies is the creation of neural human-mouse
chimeras. The mice, in this case, have a brain that is composed of both human and mouse
neuronal cells. This allows for researchers not only to look at the development of connections
between brain neurons, but also to take a closer look at degenerative diseases, such as
Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s diseases85.
Other examples of cognitive robotics include for instance hybrid bionic systems, such as
prostheses like artificial retinas, intelligent optical sensors that have the capacity to process
images and stimulate the optic nerve. This technology could then be used to help in the
treatment of sight degradation pathologies where the photoreceptors in the eye are destroyed
while the ocular nerve remains intact. In fact, the field of artificial implants and limbs combines
information technology with biotechnology and cognitive science in an ever evolving pursuit of
artificial body parts that accurately mimic those of the human body. Artificial body parts take
signals from nerve endings, nearby muscles, and the human brain in order to give the user
greater control than ever before.
Similarly, speech recognition devices can convert a speech signal into a text message. The
challenge is to make speech recognition systems robust, irrespective of the surrounding
acoustics, so that they also function in noisy environments. A range of signal-processing
methods for speech enhancement, noise removal, speaker normalisation, and feature
normalisation have been proposed to solve the problem86.
The recent neurotechnology wave will also accelerate thanks to the development of
nanobiochips that will increase the accuracy of neurological analysis and will permit to perform
the analysis of neuro-molecular level in a faster and more efficient way.
With progress in nanoinformatics, these implants could approach the smallness and capabilities
of natural systems126. In addition, the recent neurotechnology wave will also accelerate thanks
84
Mellit A. and Kalogirou S.A. Artificial intelligence techniques for photovoltaic applications: A review. Progress in
Energy and Combustion Science, 34:574-632, 2008.
85
Source: www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B8G3V-4PGR3WF2&_user=10&_coverDate=09%2F13%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_s
earchStrId=1190752469&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=f7
739082e3f5c6115ba0071c7cbba873 [Accessed the 05/02/2010]
86
46
Malanowski N and Compano R. Combining ICT and cognitive science: opportunities and risks. Foresight, 9, 2007.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
to the development of nanobiochips that will increase the accuracy of neurological analysis and
will permit to perform the analysis of neuro-molecular level in a faster and more efficient way87.
Through nanotechnology applications in biotechnology and molecular biology, several devices
based on the functional structures of living organisms can also be developed. Therefore, basic
components of living systems, such as lipid bilayers, proteins, and membrane-bound organelles
are employed as engineering materials88 together with nanoparticles. This, combined with
genomics and proteomic methods, will potentially lead to new therapeutic agents of greater
specificity and safety.
Nanobiotechnological devices are used to diagnostic genetic abnormality of foetuses, for
molecular cloning, as sensors, and drug delivery89. Nanobiotechnology can also be applied to
develop nanoimplants useful to monitor biological indicators of disease in real time, such as
blood sugar levels in diabetics27. Research is going on to study tissue and organ substitution
through nanoimplants that are potentially able to restore human sensory functions or to
complement them in artificial sense organs90 creating direct connections between machines and
the human nervous system (e.g. cochlear or retina implants).
Drug delivery is set to be revolutionised by the combination of nanotechnology and
biotechnology. In a recent example, researchers were able to use synthetic biology techniques
to combine an antibody molecule with tumour killing nanoparticles. As a result, specific tumours
could be targeted by the antibody, and upon contact, the tumours targeting nanoparticles were
able to destroy cancer cells91. Finally, nanotechnologies could be applied in nearly all electronic
devices to reduce the size of components.
Biotechnology can also be combines with IT, either alone or with nanotechnologies.
Bioinformatics is the study of molecular biology using information technology. IT was essential
in large-scale DNA sequencing, and is often employed in other areas for data analysis and
management. For example, the success of biotechnology is owed in part to advances in the
information sciences sector. Bioinformatics involves a combination of biotechnology and
information sciences, where computer, database and software technologies are used to manage
biological information92. Two important areas that rely on bioinformatics are genomics and
proteomics. Genomics refers to the analysis of genomes, which involves the sequencing and
87
Lynch Z. Neurotechnology and society (2010-2060). Annals New York Academy of Sciences, 1013, 2004.
88
Choi HJ., Wendell D., Montemagno CD.. Advances in nano biotic/abiotic hybrid systems: protein-based engineered
devices. Nanobiotechnol. 2007;3:66–75
89
Lee SC., Bhalerao K., Ferrari M. Object-oriented design tools for supramolecular devices and biomedical
nanotechnology. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2004;1013:110-123
90
Tiefenauer LX. Ethics of Nanotechnology in Medicine, Challenges and Promises. Nanobiotechnol. 2006;2(1-2):1-3
91
Source:
www.medgadget.com/archives/2009/01/scientists_create_antibodynanoparticle_constructs_that_target_cancer_cel
ls.html [Accessed the 05/02/2010]
92
June 2010
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/About/primer/bioinformatics.html [Accessed the 05/02/2010]
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
47
analysis of all of these genomic entities, including genes and transcripts, in an organism.
Proteomics, on the other hand, refers to the analysis of the complete set of proteins or
proteome, including both structure and function. In addition to genomics and proteomics, there
are many more areas of biology where bioinformatics is being applied (e.g., metabolomics,
transcriptomics). As well as managing information, bioinformatics has made it easier for this
information to be disseminated and shared among experts. However, making sense of the
massive amount of data provided by biotechnology’s powerful research tools and techniques is
still a challenge that many researchers face.
Biocomputing merges the fields of biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology
to perform computer-like operations using biologically derived molecules. Binary operations can
be conducted utilising naturally occurring biological phenomena within the most basic parts of
cells. Considering the human brain as the pinnacle within the field, biocomputing offers an
immense potential as an alternative computer infrastructure.
48
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
3.2.1. DRIVERS
The table below provides an overview of the main drivers for each of the four areas of the NBIC cluster.
Social
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
ICT





Consumer demand
for new innovative
products
Health care
improvements


Consumer demand
Ageing population strives for
higher quality of life
Potential for job creation
increases social demand
Global pandemics requiring for
new therapeutic tools



Cognitive sciences
Thirst for new products and
access to free information
Job creation prospects
Quality of life – information
sharing (video-conferences,
blogs, social networks etc).
Political transparency and
participation








Technological


June 2010
Development of
innovative devices
Demand for
decreasing size of
technological
applications

Improved gene sequencing
technologies

Advances in molecular biology

Need for GM models for
medical and biological
research

Need for new active molecules






Improved processing power
Decreased device size
Decreased cost of computing
components
Ubiquitous broadband
Wireless networks
Increased device complexity/
multifunctional devices






Globalisation in societal activities
(education)
Ageing of population (increase of
mental illnesses)
Internationalisation of crime
increases felt needs for security
Need for better living spaces
Development of individual and
collective decision making
processes
Changes in educational approaches
Education of neuro-impaired
people
Human appetite for innovation and
information
Developments of ICT miming human
brain
Increased diffusion of technology
Development of knowledge society
Need for better prostheses and
ortheses
Development of robotics
Development of transportation
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
50
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
ICT
Cognitive sciences
in pharmaceutics

Economic


Environmental
Political



June 2010
Commercial
expectations and
growth potential of
NBIC markets
(household
products,
pharmaceuticals,
industrial goods,
agrifood sector, etc.)
Competitiveness
concerns and
opportunities
Prospects for
environmental
remediation, such as
wastewater
treatment, energy
storage, decrease of
volume of discarded
devices

New military
devices, monitoring
systems, and
surveillance systems
Competitiveness


Need for new molecular tools
for bio-medical research
Changing demands and
growing competition in a
globalised economy
Increasing production costs/
price of oil and other
resources (biofuels et al. as
substitute)
devices




Increased productivity due to
ICT - increased corporate
demand
Competition for new users
increases
Switch to service-oriented
economy continues
Global outsourcing continues in
an globally integrated economy



Globalisation in economic activities
Development of entertainment
industry and innovative medical
devices
Consumer’s choice

Need for increased food
production

Increasing healthcare costs

Need for flexibility

Growing concern over the
stability of food supply,
climate change, water scarcity
& resource depletion
Better knowledge of the decision
making processes toward
environmental friendly actions
Prospects for innovative tools
for soil protection, waste
reduction, treatment and
reduction of use of
agrochemicals
Rising concerns about food
and energy security
Political pressure to support
biofuels
Ethical scrutiny and demand
Global warming
Energy efficiency
Renewable energy
Dematerialisation
Environmental transparency








Regulations requiring
transparency
Security
New social movements
facilitated by ICT


Needs of increased security
Development of individual and
collective decision making processes
Assessment, comparison and
aggregation of beliefs, norms,





European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
51
Nanotechnology
concerns and
employment
prospects push
governments to
action
52
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
Biotechnology
for social responsibility will
grow
ICT
Cognitive sciences
values and preferences
June 2010
As can be deduced from this table, a number of social, technological, economic, environmental
and political drivers are at the origin of each of the technologies presented. Some of these
drivers are specific to the considered technology, while others are common. Most of the
common drivers are socio-economic and are based on the human need for a constant
development. Thus, among the main drivers we can distinguish a need for an ever increasing
quality of life, a general intention to ameliorate human conditions by alleviating both physical
and psychological suffering, but also through providing new tools to improve human
performance again both at the mental and physical levels. These social drivers interact among
them in a context of extremely fast development of the knowledge society and trigger economic
expectations based on the commercial potential of these technologies which could provide
consumers with a better and larger choice of products, eventually resulting in an improvement
of the competitiveness of European industry. This future vision is of course based on the
assumption of an ever increasing globalisation of markets. The globalisation is not only expected
to increase at the economic level, but also at the environmental level, making some important
issues, such as global warming and waste production, two of the main environmental drivers for
the development of converging technologies, which could partly contribute to attenuate such
problems.
3.2.2. UNCERTAINTIES
3.2.2.1
Uncertainty in evaluating benefits, risks and impacts
 Nanotechnologies
One of the main uncertainties concerns the risks associated to nanotechnologies. Knowledge on
health and environmental impacts is sparse and testing methods to better understand and
measure the toxicology of nanoparticles are still lacking93. Few models exist to predict the
toxicity of many nanoparticles and the majority of the existing work for ecotoxicology has been
performed on standard animal models, which are in general small aquatic organisms (e.g.
daphnids). The toxic potential in humans is not sufficiently well known to extrapolate health
effects94,95, even if it has been observed that many nanoparticles can pass through the skin or
lungs, involving potential health effects.
The lack of standardised testing procedures, methods and approaches for nanotoxicology lead
to varying interpretations of the results, and the studies are not comparable. New methods and
equipments are required in order to adequately detect and measure the concentration of
93
Dhawan et al. Nanomaterials: A challenge for toxicologists. Nanotoxicology, 2009, Vol. 3, No. 1, Pages 1-9.
94
Baun A., et al. Toxicity and bioaccumulation of xenobiotic organic compounds in the presence of aqueous
suspensions of aggregates of nano-C(60). Aquat Toxicol. 2008;86(3):379-387
95
Renn O., Roco MC. Nanotechnology and the need for risk governance. Journal of Nanoparticle Research.
2006;8(2):153-191
53
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
nanoparticles96 in the environment. For this reason, there is no published comprehensive work
on nanoparticle concentrations in environment. A number of problems need to be solved
before these measurements can be performed by the scientific community. For example one of
the main difficulties in measuring nanoparticles in natural compartments (e.g. water), is due to
the high background associated to natural colloids with similar composition. For this reason, the
routine monitoring of nanoparticles concentration for regulatory purposes is still not feasible.
The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is used to evaluate the impacts of products on the
environment throughout their entire life cycle, from the extraction of resources to the end-oflife. For nanoparticle-containing products, this methodology is difficult to apply, due to the
scarce availability of environmental data. Since nanotechnologies are a recent innovation, only a
few LCA have been performed for nanoproducts, and no user-friendly tools for eco-design
screening have been developed for nanotechnologies97.
In regulation, uncertainties also exist. The terms ‘nanoparticle’ or ‘nanomaterial’ are not
definitely characterised and the existing rules are not adapted to the specificity of
nanomaterials (size, produced volume, etc.). This could be a cause of confusion in the
application of the current (e.g. REACH) and future legislation requirements98.
As the toxicity of nanotechnologies is unknown, these nanotechnologies could lead to socioeconomic problems, e.g. if for instance the nanomedicines used in the treatment for cancer
provoked any side effects. In the future, industries which commercialise products containing
nanotechnologies could go bankrupt if the production of these products was suddenly stopped
because of the toxicity of products or for any other reason. Moreover, nanotechnology in
medicine raises many ethical questions. In particular, if, owing to nanoscale analytical
techniques, the genomic sequence could be described in a better and quicker manner, and
adapted treatments with specific drugs could be delivered, at the same time, the right to access
the acquired information should be defined considering the protection of privacy and the right
of ignorance. If no adequate treatment is available, will the diagnosis of a defect gene or a
severe disease be communicated? Which recommendation can be given after a diagnosis?
However, those ethical issues are not specific to nanotechnology but are the consequence of
the improvement of diagnostics of genomic markers using nanotechnology. In addition,
nanotechnology could increase the speed and the number of different available diagnostics and
also contribute to decrease the price of a single analysis and make it more widely available
directly to the consumer. However, if costs of nanomedicine increase they will involve
inequalities within advances societies as well as between those and developing countries.
It can be asked how far human beings can, should, or want to go in remodelling the human
body, in particular with neuro-implants, and to what end this should or could be done. Can a
boundary be set between the reparation of damage and the enhancement of the body?
96
The Australia Institute What you should know about nano Policy brief n°8 November 2009
97
Seager TP and Linkov I. Uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment of Nanomaterials. Springer, 2009.
98
Choi et al. The Impact of Toxicity Testing Costs on Nanomaterial Regulation. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2009, 43 (9), pp
3030–3034
54
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
Many aspects of nanotechnology are unknown, therefore it is difficult to predict its future.
Figure 3-10 proposes two extreme representations of possible nanotechnology developments
until 2015 with drivers, barriers and effects. The best development scenario includes
investments and technology breakthroughs to involve nanotechnology in many devices, but
research and developments costs, applicability, complexity, accessibility and social acceptance
may hinder this growth. Another scenario supposes that technological evolution will concern
smaller, faster and cheaper systems but will not develop new innovations99.
Figure 3-10 : Range of possible future developments and effects of nanotechnology 99
 Biotechnologies
One of the greatest uncertainties in the field of biotechnology is that of health and
environmental risk. In the healthcare context, although drugs must undergo intensive screening
and safety trials, long term effects remain uncertain. In the case of stem cell research, there are
some reservations in relation to the safety of using human-animal chimeras and cybrids. Stem
cells derived from these types of cells are not entirely human, and therefore, questions arise as
to the safety of such technology in the therapeutic context. At present, chimeras are only used
for research purposes, but the possibility of using chimeric stem cells for therapeutic purposes
may become an issue for discussion in the future.
Although GM crops have now been grown for well over a decade, there are still uncertainties
with regard to the risks related to GM crop production, both to human health and to the
environment, and there is a continual need for adequate risk analysis. In recent years, some of
the focus has pointed towards the development of technological mechanisms to test for
99
Adapted from: Anton PS et al. from RAND National Defense Research Institute. The global technology revolution Bio/nano/materials trends and their synergies with information technology by 2015, prepared for the National
Intelligence Council, 2001.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
55
GMOs100. Qualitative testing may be employed to discriminate between authorised and
unauthorised material. Quantitative testing can be used to test for compliance with legal or
contractually agreed thresholds. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, testing may also play an
important role in the analysis of the risks of growing and consuming GM crops (e.g. genetic
pollution). With differing regulatory requirements across different countries, the significance of
GMO detection is likely to grow within the next few years.
In the area of GM crop technology, intended or unintended release of GMOs into the
environment may result from closed experiments carried out in research laboratories or
through open growing of GM crops. These releases may pose significant risks to human and
animal health and the environment, although at present the long term effects are still uncertain.
There is a clear need for safety testing and detection technology to identify unauthorised
GMOs. At present this technology is in the process of undergoing improvement101.
The issue of ownership of intellectual property rights also continues to raise concerns in the
field of biotechnology 102. The stated purpose of patents and other intellectual property rights is
to encourage innovation. Owners of patents are provided with a period of market exclusivity,
enabling them to recover research and development costs and profit from their innovations.
Patents are seen as crucial business assets for many participants in the biotechnology industry.
As the modern biotechnology sector is relatively new, there are still some uncertainties in laws
and practices relating to intellectual property, especially in relation to patents over GMOs and
gene sequences.
In the agricultural context, concerns have been raised that owners of such patents exert too
much control over the supply of GMO seeds, particularly if they require farmers to purchase
seeds for every sowing season. It has been argued that this could, paradoxically, affect food
security103. Added to this, technology now exists to ‘shut off’ a plant’s ability to breed, making
seed saving impossible. International organisations argued that privatisation of plant genetic
resources could put agricultural research in developing nations at a disadvantage, and may even
threaten the livelihood of small farmers in developing countries who depend on seed saved
from one crop to sow the next103.
Intellectual property rights may also create problems in the search for novel treatment for
debilitating diseases such as HIV. There is some concern that owners of patents claiming human
genes could block other research and development. Although gene patents have been granted
100
Holst-Jensen A. Testing for genetically modified organisms (GMOs): Past, present and future perspectives.
Biotechnology Advances, 2009.
101
Holst-Jensen A. Testing for genetically modified organisms (GMOs): Past, present and future perspectives.
Biotechnology Advances 27(6):1071-1082, 2009.
102
Ganguli P, Khanna R, Prickril B, Defining the Future: Emerging Issues in Biotechnology, Intellectual Property Rights
and Technology Transfer, In: Technology Transfer in Biotechnology. A Global Perspective, 2009
103
UN Chronicle, Biotechnology -- A Solution to Hunger?, 2009,
www.un.org/wcm/content/site/chronicle/cache/bypass/lang/en/home/archive/Issues2009/pid/5084;jsessionid=79C
17373C9D2B47187E823B8A75ACBE5?ctnscroll_articleContainerList=1_0&ctnlistpagination_articleContainerList=true
[Accessed the 06/02/2010]
56
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
by patent offices around the world for a number of years, their validity remains uncertain. Gene
patents have attracted most controversy in the context of genetic screening and testing for both
rare and common chronic diseases104.
In March 2010, a judge in the federal district court of Manhattan (U.S.) rejected patents for two
genes that are strongly associated with breast and ovarian cancer (BRCA1 and BRCA2)105.
Women who wished to be tested for cancer markers within these genes could only get tested
through companies that owned these genes. As genes are deemed a product of nature, they
cannot be patented. As of late March 2010, an appeal is being prepared to overturn this ruling.
The outcome of this appeal may have significant implications for the future of gene patenting in
the U.S. Litigation of this nature may also become more common in future as ethical concerns
rise over the ‘ownership’ of natural material.
Conversely, there is also a fear that gene patenting could slow down progress in the medical
diagnostics field. Patents claiming drugs also continue to attract controversy, particularly in
relation to access to essential medicines in developing and least developed countries for the
treatment of such diseases as HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
Despite arguments over the safety and ethics surrounding the biotechnology sector, it is
generally accepted that biotechnology could be a significant tool for improving public health,
general quality of life and sustainability. Some believe it is an indispensible tool, as an ageing
and ever-growing population could put increasing pressure on natural and economic resources.
The proliferation and growing presence of biotechnology in everyday life could have significant
effects on the global population over the next few years106. While debate continues on the
safety and ethics of older advances (such as genetic engineering), novel technologies coming
into the fore may also face the same path as their predecessors (such synthetic biology).
Figure 3-11 shows the range of possible future developments in the biotechnology field up to
2025. Investments in technology, especially GM technology and stem cell research, could be a
significant driver within the next 15 years. Although biotechnology is a much more established
field in comparison with younger technologies (such as nanotechnology), there is still room for
significant growth and development. With pressures from rising costs and growing population,
investors could continue to see the biotechnology field as a viable market. However, as
reflected during the 2008 financial crisis, investors still view biotechnology as a high risk
investment area. Coupled with ethical concerns, potential property rights litigation, and the
relatively slow progress of research and development, some investors may hold back, especially
in the area of medical biotechnology. However, the use of biotechnology in the industrial and
environmental fields could become increasingly attractive for investors due to both rising costs
and rising public environmental awareness and concern.
104
Chandrasekharan S., and Cook-Deegan R. Gene patents and personalized medicine - what lies ahead?, Genome
Medicine, 2009, 1:92
105
Dwyer J, In Patent Fight, Nature, 1; Company, 0, available at:
www.nytimes.com/2010/03/31/nyregion/31about.html [Accessed 31/03/2010]
106
June 2010
Fukuyama F., Rosenthal J. H., Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution, 2003
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
57
Figure 3-11: Range of possible future developments and effects of biotechnology 99
 Information sciences
With a revolutionary force such as information technology comes a break from traditional
practices, thus driving change and innovation. With change comes fear of uncertainty as new
techniques and methods are being tested out.
The traditional economic model for many types of businesses has been broken with the dawn of
user-generated content. Free, open source software dominates many market sectors, beating
professionally developed products in fields such as web servers, where 67% use open source
web server software called Apache, and 23% use an open-source operating system called
Linux107, directly challenging the Microsoft powerhouse. However, the adoption of open source
software is still uncertain, as loyalties still remain to traditional software. In addition, the level of
adoption of software corresponds to an enterprise’s IT capabilities, as open source software
often does not come with technical support108.
In addition, as computing power shifts into the cloud, the market for computers is destined to
change. Rather than sold as a product, software and infrastructure are expected to be sold as a
widely distributed, flexible service, much like utility electricity. However, as illustrated in Figure
107
Lerner J. and Tirole J. The Economics of Technology Sharing: Open Source and Beyond. Journal of Economic
Perspectives. American Economic Association, 19:99-120, 2005.
108
Katsamakas E. & Xin M. An economic analysis of enterprise adoption of open source software. Working Papers 0529, NET Institute, revised Oct 2005.
58
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
3-12, it is uncertain which entity will provide the customer-facing facade, behind which all other
computing technology sits, as well as control the market of exchanges in computing power109.
Figure 3-12: Various paradigms promising to deliver IT as services109
Because of the ubiquity of IT, concerns have risen over privacy. Voluntarily or not, the daily life
of many people is being documented through Facebook updates, RFID chips in transport cards,
and personal information being stored in the cloud. RFID is one of the more worrying issues, as
the collection of personal information can be achieved by both authorised and unauthorised
parties. Privacy violations in RFID can fall into one of two categories110:

Tracking: actions of individuals are recorded and future behavioural patterns inferred

Information leak: personal or intimate information stored in RFID tags is revealed
without the consent of the owner
These and other privacy concerns are valid in a society in which it is becoming increasingly more
difficult to remain anonymous.
Some people have voiced concerns about increased levels of electromagnetic fields (EMF) due
to ubiquitous wireless permeating our bodies. Some studies have linked EMF to a wide variety
of health issues depending upon the intensity and frequency of the field. However, the results
are still inconclusive about the direct links with EMF, and research in the field is ongoing.
In addition, the increased use of information technology devices has created an electronic waste
stream that creates significant health and environmental risks. If not properly treated,
hazardous substances within the electronic devices have been linked to the formation of
109
Buyya R. Et al.Market-Oriented Cloud Computing: Vision, Hype, and Reality for Delivering IT Services as Computing
Utilities. 10th IEEE International Conference on High Performance Computing and Communications, 2008.
110
Roussos G. and Kostakos V. RFID in pervasive computing: state-of-the-art and outlook. Pervasive and Mobile
Computing, 5:110-131, 2008.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
59
dioxins, a human carcinogen that is created when these substances are burned. Small, pervasive
computing devices such as RFID pose a risk of becoming embedded in previously recyclable
materials, thus rendering them environmentally harmful.111
The entire information technology sector is quite uncertain as it is still in its infancy. Entering
the mainstream only twenty years ago, IT has already come a great way since its inception.
According to Moore’s law, computer processing power more or less doubles every 18 months.
Because of the astonishing rate of change already inherent in the sector, even the next five
years are uncertain.
 Cognitive science
Since the technologies related to cognitive science are in their beginnings, the long-term
economic dimension of these converging applications is not clear. A number of socio-economic
issues and uncertainties are related to their development, concerning mainly health and safety,
economic, policy, legal, and ethical aspects. These issues and uncertainties are at least partly
related to public acceptance, societal economic potential, the constantly increasing need for the
improvement of life quality, but also to the non-acceptance, economic risks and technological
abuse. Some of the uncertain aspects include for instance whether there are a sufficient
number of scientists and private companies that have an R&D capable of developing brain and
machine interfaces in Europe, the relative role played by multinational and SMEs, the role of
public funding, and, of course, the level of public acceptance86.
Also the ethical dimension is crucial in determining the uncertainty related to the development
of cognitive science112. This development raises legal and philosophical issues regarding human
inviolability, dignity, and autonomy. For instance, in the case of artificial intelligence, one may
wonder if this will lead to the ‘end of nature’ or the final conclusion that a world that is entirely
under human control is merely an illusion. Another main ethical uncertainty is to define the
priority actions to be taken if such invasive technologies cause brain damage, whether and, if so,
in which specific cases such damages could be ethically acceptable, and how to involve all the
concerned stakeholders in the debate86.
Thus, due to the high specificity characterising these ethical issues, the necessity to develop a
specific ethical field for cognitive science involving different disciplines, has recently been
proposed. We talk in this case of neuroethics. Neuroethics are concerned with two main series
of issues: (1) what can and ought to be done as far as neurological interventions (whether
pharmaceutical or neural) on humans go? (2) what are the consequences of the development of
a neuroscientific image of man with regards to our traditional self-image (as free and
responsible agents, in particular, as conscious beings, as unified persons, etc.).
Therefore, long-term moral and legal questions arise regarding, for instance, the legal status of
artificial neural networks or to build up a legal and political framework to control the
111
Roussos G. and Kostakos V. RFID in pervasive computing: state-of-the-art and outlook. Pervasive and Mobile
Computing, 5:110-131, 2008.
112
Knoll, A. and de Kamps, M. Roadmap of neuro-IT development v2.0, 2006. Available at: www.neuroit.net/NeuroIT/Roadmap
60
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
development of neuro-products and applications that are capable to influence the reorganisation of our society. Thus, for instance, a debate on the new contexts of work generated
by the application of some neurotechnologies (e.g. speech recognition), will be necessary to
have a first idea of how social life and privacy could change.
Regarding health care systems, the question of whether and how the neurotechnologies will
contribute to find efficient solutions to public health issues is still open. Of course the way in
which the main function of the public health system, including the economic management of
resources, human resources, services provision, financing, etc., will be adapted to the arrival of
the new technologies is another uncertainty. The management of human resources, their
training, and the investments in research and technology development will determine which
sector will be the first in developing a new health care system based on these new
technologies113.
3.2.2.2
Level of public acceptance
 Nanotechnologies
The public, being aware of the current and potential future growth of nanotechnologies, claims
to know more about nanotechnologies. Publics perception is one of the most important factors
that will affect the future development of this converging technology.
Modern industrialised societies increasingly tend to consider new technologies critically in terms
of ‘risks’. In the same way as for genetically modified foods, consumers tend to judge the
benefits and risks of nanotechnology derived foods on the basis of information provided by the
media. It is likely that some of the products engineered with nanotechnology will be accepted
by the public more easily than others. For instance, in the food industry, nanotechnologyderived packaging was perceived as being more beneficial than nanotechnology-engineered
foods. These results also supported the hypothesis that nanotechnology is perceived as less
acceptable in a food than in other products. This is probably due to the fact that ingesting
nanoparticles is perceived as more dangerous for human health that releasing them into the
environment in the form of food packaging waste.
A recent study114 has shown that people have different perceptions of nanotechnology
depending on their cultural background. For example, people from a cultural background
characterised by a more individualistic approach tend to neglect the environmental risks related
to nanotechnology, because they think that acknowledging such hazards would threaten the
autonomy of markets and the authority of social elites, whereas people characterised by an
egalitarian and communitarian cultural background, as defined by the authors, take
environmental risks more seriously. They perceive the risks of nanotechnology as greater and
the benefits smaller than people in the first category.
113
Tairyan K and Illes J. Imaging genetics and the power of combined technologies: a perspective from neuroethics.
Neuroscience 164, 7–15, 2009.
114
Kahan DM., et al. Cultural cognition of the risks and benefits of nanotechnology. Nat Nanotechnol. 2009;4(2):87-
90
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
61
In addition, there are significant differences in the level of acceptance between people who are
aware of nanotechnology as an emerging technology and those who are not. In a survey
conducted in 2005 in the U.S., 55 % of subjects who were informed about nanotechnology
supported it, compared to only 28% of the uninformed people. Similarly, 49% of the subjects
who were aware of nanotechnology supported the idea of increased financial support for
nanotechnology research, compared to 22% of those unaware. According to the authors, this
favourable attitude toward nanotechnology could be due to a more optimistic view of the
potential positive effects of nanotechnology. In fact, two-thirds to three-quarters of subjects
who are aware of the issue of nanotechnology agreed that nanotechnology has potential
benefits in the areas of medicine, environmental policy, and national defence, while only about
half of unaware subjects agreed with this assessment115. In a recent poll, for instance, the
perceived opportunities and threats of nanotechnology applications in the health care system
were assessed. Public expectations focussed on more effective diagnostics and improved
therapies, especially for cancer and viral diseases. Some concerns have indeed been addressed
about nanotechnology associated toxicity, and about the potential loss of privacy and the
autonomic decision-making of patients. In sum, polled people do not want nanotechnologies to
be imposed, but want to choose and to have equal access to the expected benefits (Box 3-5).
To date, several militant actions involving concerned public have been recorded, such as, for
instance, the blocking of the construction of the Minatec Centre for nanotechnology for several
weeks by an activist group, Pièces et Main d’Oeuvre (PMO)116. Nevertheless, for the moment,
nanotechnology is not an issue in the public sphere and, as a consequence, no real fear of
nanotechnology has been observed. This perception could change very quickly depending on
any accident or failure to regulate the potential risks116.
To date, more than one hundred participatory technology assessments on nanotechnology have
been organised worldwide. This kind of approach is useful to obtain a feedback on public
concerns and allows communication between the public and members of the scientific and
policy elites117.
115
Scheufele DA., Lewenstein BV. The public and nanotechnology: How citizens make sense of emerging
technologies. Journal of Nanoparticle Research. 2005; 7: 659–667
116
Personal communication Dr. Alain Kaufmann
117
Joly PB., Kaufmann A. Lost in translation? The need for ‘upstream engagement’ with nanotechnology on trial.
Science as culture, 2008;17(3):225-247
62
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
Box 3-5: Concerns commonly expressed by participants in participatory processes 118

Who is in control of the technology development?

Where can I obtain trustworthy information?

On what terms is the technology being introduced?

What risks apply, with what certainty, and to whom?

Where do the benefits fall?

Do the risks and benefits affect the same people?

Who takes responsibility for resulting problems?
According to a participatory procedure conducted in 2006 by TA-SWISS, the majority of
participants feel the need for a labelling requirement for nanoparticle containing products, as
well as more research and a harmonised European regulation framework116.
Thus, in general, a perceived benefit combined with low perceived risks will promote
nanotechnology applications. Of course, the level of public acceptance is strongly influenced by
the media. Exposure to science and technology news in newspapers, on television, and on the
web had a consistent significant positive impact on public attitudes toward nanotechnology. The
media, as well as scientists and engineers, who constantly highlight the fact that
nanotechnology will solve human problems119, emphasise the potential benefits of
nanotechnology, often without mentioning the potential impacts115.
 Biotechnologies
Deciphering and manipulating the very basic components of life is fraught with controversy.
There are genuine concerns about the safety of the technology and deep-seated moral concerns
about its implications. Some individuals find it difficult to accept that certain biotechnological
innovations should be allowed to proceed, especially those that have implications for human
health and society. Genetic manipulation of human DNA, cloning, stem cell research, synthetic
biology, human-animal chimeras and cybrids and GM crop production have not escaped such
controversy. There have been particularly emotive responses to human embryonic stem cell
technology, because the harvest of these cells requires the destruction of fertilised human
embryos. Opponents of human embryonic stem cell research take this position because they
believe that human life begins as soon as an egg is fertilised, and consequently consider a
human embryo to be a human being. Any research that necessitates the destruction of a human
embryo is therefore considered by them to be immoral.
118
Personal communication Dr. Alain Kaufmann
119
Felt U., and Wynne B, 2007. Taking European knowledge society seriously – Report of the expert group on science
and governance to the science, economy and society directorate, Directorate-General for Research, European
Commission. 2007
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
63
Many of the concerns about the developments in biotechnology focus around the fear that
biotechnologists are ‘playing God’ by interfering in the development of living organisms,
including human beings. GMOs, in particular, are seen as unnatural, and therefore morally
unacceptable. This view is most strongly expressed by anti-GMO associations and websites such
as ‘Say no to GMOs’120. It should not be forgotten, however, that other non-GMO, non-organic
foods may be just as unnatural, because they may have been subject to fertilisers, pesticides,
hormones and antibiotics.
One area that is of particular concern to the general public is the genetic modification or
selection of human beings. The catch-phrase ‘designer babies’ has become a household
expression. In vitro fertilisation and genetic testing have made it possible to screen for genetic
malformations, therefore allowing parents to filter out embryos with genes for heritable
diseases. There is some fear that such technology could result in parents screening for desired
traits, rather than just filtering out those embryos likely to develop life threatening medical
conditions.
Another area that elicits a strong visceral reaction from the public is that of cloning and the
creation of human-animal chimeras and cybrids. In 2006 public outcry in the UK urged
legislators to draft a bill to make the creation of human-animal cybrid embryos an illegal activity
121
. However, in 2008 UK legislators agreed to amend the Human Fertilisation and Embryology
Act to legalise the creation and development of human-animal hybrid embryos for up to 14
days. Subsequent polls show that there was still public opposition to this type of research, with
general consensus that it is morally wrong, except in the context of medical research and
development122. Public attitudes towards biotechnology vary significantly, depending on the
technology sector. A 2006 Eurobarometer study, which assesses opinions of citizens on
biotechnology, has shown that confidence in biotechnology has been growing since 1999123.
This is especially true for medical applications which provide benefits to human health, but also
for industrial application of biotechnology. However, despite a positive attitude of some policy
makers, EU citizens’ opinions of GM foods appeared to be less positive. According to the study,
only 27% of respondents believed that technology used in the production of GM foods should
be encouraged. In fact, out of those respondents who gave an affirmative answer to the survey,
58% opposed, and 42% support GM food production. Much more effort is still needed to
educate and include the public within discussions about this technology. As an area that elicits
strong passions on both sides, moral and ethical arguments will always need to be considered,
more so as public knowledge of the subject grows.
 Information sciences
120
www.saynotogmos.org [Accessed the 8/02/2010]
121
Hopkin M., UK set to reverse stance on research with chimeras Nature Medicine, 2007, 13:890 - 891
122
Jones D. A., What does the British public think about human–animal hybrid embryos?, Journal of Medical Ethics ,
2009;35:168-170
123
European Commision, Eurobarometer Study 64.3 - Europeans and Biotechnology in 2005: Patterns and Trends,
2006
64
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
Public acceptance has generally been universally quite high for information technology
applications. IT offers to solve problems and improve everyday operations, which most people
can agree with and relate to. As stated many times already, IT has already penetrated nearly
every facet of life.
However, some groups of people are worried about the health impacts of electromagnetic fields
(EMF) which are developed during the use of some IT applications. Self-reported symptoms,
also called ‘electromagnetic hypersensitivity’ are symptoms defined on the basis of the
experience reported by individuals afflicted by EMF. To date, no study supports a causal
relationship between ELF fields and self-reported symptoms, such as fatigue, headache,
concentration difficulties, nausea, heart palpitation, dermatological symptoms such as redness,
tingling and burning sensations, etc. In some EU countries, hypersensitivity has been indeed
recognised as an area where more scientific research is needed.
 Cognitive science
Everyone has a stake in understanding how the brain works. Neuro and cognitive scientists are
now facing an important challenge that will be even more important if these disciplines develop
in the future as expected. The understanding of the brain and the mind is going to be deeper
and deeper, but of course such a development, as has previously been seen, is prompting
several ethical, social, moral and spiritual questions. In fact, scientists are increasingly being
pushed to confront with the general public and to communicate their findings in an easy
language that is understood by everybody. Communication between the neuro-cognitive
scientific community and the public is thus very important to determine the level of public
acceptance and, finally, influence policy makers. Precaution should be taken regarding the way
in which this communication is performed. Often the media contribute to the misunderstanding
of the newest discoveries of neuro and cognitive science, through sensational headlines
announcing the discovery of the ‘gene of intelligence’ or miracle cures. Of course, such an
attitude of the media can strongly influence a public who is in general interested in brain
diseases and cures and does not have sufficient background knowledge to critically evaluate the
given information124. A misperception of neuro and cognitive science by the public can be
accompanied by a misperception of policy makers leading them towards unfruitful decisions, or
common-based decisions rather than scientifically-based decisions, finally resulting in cultural
resistance and in the worst scenario in an ‘intellectual war’ between humanities and cognitive
science3.
Indeed neuro and cognitive science present some specific communication challenges, including:
124
June 2010

Complex information

Different conceptions of mind and brain depending on personal, philosophical and
religious aspects

Difficulty to deal with the concept of “biologically induced behaviour” which can
challenge the definition of the self and of the moral responsibility
Illes J, et al. Neurotalk: improving the communication of neuroscience research. Neurosciences 11, 2010.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
65

The worry of the public regarding diseases involving the nervous system (e.g.
neurodegenerative diseases, mental illness, etc.)124.
Several models exist to foresee the future development of new technologies entering the
market. Such approaches, based on economy, and mainly built for more classical informatics
applications, have shown that the success of a given technology depends on both the nature of
the technical innovation and broader shifts in society125. These more classical models, owing to
the convergences between informatics and cognitive science, could also be used for the
appraisal of socio-economic impacts of at least some of the applications of cognitive science.
125
Freeman, C. and Perez, C. Structural crises of adjustment: business cycles and investment behaviour, in Dosi, G.,
Freeman, C., Nelson, R., Silverberg, G. and Soete, L. (Eds), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter Publishers,
London, pp. 38-67. 1988.
66
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
4. BENEFITS AND IMPACTS: INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION, INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
4.1.
LONG TERM BENEFITS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENVIRONMENT
4.1.1. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
At present nanotechnology is in many areas still in the phases of development, thus we can only
speak of nanotechnology’s potentials for the environment126. Nanotechnologies could allow
saving resources, reducing the incidence of environmentally detrimental by-products, improving
the efficiency of energy transformation, reducing energy consumption, and eliminating
ecologically deleterious materials from the environment126. Nanotechnology is an opportunity
to improve environmental performance realising more efficient energy production, conversion
and storage (e.g. more energy-efficient nanodevices), as well as develop innovative energy
sources. Moreover, nanotechnology may offer new manufacturing techniques requiring fewer
raw materials and producing less toxic waste. Through reduced weight emissions of greenhouse
gases could be reduced20.
For instance, the unique and tunable properties of carbon-based nanomaterials enable new
technologies for identifying and addressing environmental challenges. Carbon-based
nanomaterials can contribute to a broad range of environmental applications, including:
sorbents, high-flux membranes, depth filters, antimicrobial agents, environmental sensors,
renewable energy technologies, and pollution prevention strategies127.
Several natural and engineered nanomaterials have antimicrobial properties through diverse
mechanisms including photocatalytic production of reactive oxygen species that damage cell
components and viruses (e.g. TiO2, ZnO and fullerol), compromising the bacterial cell envelope
(e.g. peptides, chitosan, carboxyfullerene, carbon nanotubes, ZnO and silver nanoparticles
(nAg)), interruption of energy transduction (e.g. nAg and aqueous fullerene nanoparticles
(nC60)), and inhibition of enzyme activity and DNA synthesis (e.g. chitosan)128.
Thus, the quick progress of the nanotechnology and advanced nanomaterials production offers
significant opportunities for a wide range of applications for detection and remediation of a
broad range of environmental contaminants. The convergence of analytical techniques and
nanotechnology provides attractive possibilities for development of miniaturized, rapid,
126
Grunwald A. Nanotechnology – A New Field of Ethical Inquiry? Science and Engineering Ethics. 2005;11:187-201
127
Mauter M and Elimelech M. Environmental Applications of Carbon-Based Nanomaterials. Environ. Sci. Technol.,
2008, 42 (16), pp 5843–5859.
128
Li et al. Antimicrobial nanomaterials for water disinfection and microbial control: Potential applications and
implications. Water Research, Volume 42, Issue 18, November 2008, Pages 4591-4602.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
67
ultrasensitive and inexpensive methods for in situ and field-based environmental monitoring
devices129.
Nanotechnologies improve the capacity of electronic compounds and the speed of machines
and daily, all consumer goods like toys, sport equipment, kitchen utensils, cosmetics, etc. take
advantages of nanotechnologies due to their antimicrobial properties, strength, reduced weight,
etc.
Nanoparticles could be used to introduce a health-promoting substance into the food without
modifying the texture or the flavour. In developing countries, nanoparticles could be used to
fortify basic foods such as rice with iron, zinc, vitamin A or folic acid14 and could help to fight
against malnutrition.
Finally, bionanocomposites for food packaging could protect food and increase its shelf life,
being biodegradable. Thus, they could reduce the requirement of using plastics as packaging
materials which, in most cases, are made from non degradable materials that increase
environmental pollution.
All these applications can have indirect effects on the environment, reducing for instance, the
overall weight of disposable products, or helping in the optimisation of agricultural resources
through the production of more nutritive foods.
4.1.2. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
In the near future, biotechnology might provide some solutions to existing and potential
environmental issues. It also has the potential to reduce levels of pollution, decrease energy and
material resource consumption, and minimise waste generation (e.g. through production of
biodegradable materials). Biotechnology is also providing alternatives to fossil fuels (e.g. oils
extracted from microalgae), not only decreasing the consumption of a diminishing material, but
also potentially reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The environment may also benefit from the
reduced use of pesticides and fertilisers in the growth of GM crops, which could help preserve
soil health and integrity. Bioremediation may also benefit the environment. Recent examples
include deploying pearl oysters to remove metals and nutrients from aquatic ecosystems and
harvesting of fish to remove polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from the Baltic Sea130. Both
practices have been shown to significantly reduce the presence of toxic chemicals in waterways,
thereby safeguarding against aquatic ecotoxicity.
In the chemicals industry, a 2003 report estimated that biotechnology could be used in the
production of 10 to 20% of all chemicals by 2010131. Biotechnology is currently applied to many
aspects of chemicals production. For example, to decrease costs, resource consumption and
129
Andreescu at al. JEM Spotlight: Applications of advanced nanomaterials for environmental monitoring. J. Environ.
Monit., 2009, 11, 27 – 40.
130
Gifford S., et al. Aquatic zooremediation: deploying animals to remediate contaminated aquatic environments.
TRENDS in Biotechnology, 2006, 25(2): 60-65
131
68
EuropaBio, White Biotechnology: Gateway to a More Sustainable Future, 2003
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
environmental impacts, enzymes have been employed in the textiles sector to replace chemicals
in washing and finishing stages.
Finally, biotechnology could have profound beneficial effects on the fight against climate
change. For example, it is now possible to use the technology to increase the extraction of oil
from plant sources by up to 90%. These efforts could contribute to the increased production of
biofuels without the need for increased plant cultivation. Furthermore, efforts are being made
to optimise the growth and extraction of oils from microalgae for the same purpose. This would
ensure that in the future there is less competition for crops in the production of biofuels, which
could conflict with the demand for food. Currently, research is also focusing on the
development of second generation biofuels and technologies for their extraction, which are
reportedly more efficient than their first generation counterparts132. However, commercial
production of second generation biofuels isn’t yet underway, and their environmental and
socio-economic impacts are still uncertain.
Biotechnological advances are also expected to have a significant impact on a number of
industry sectors, although to date it is only in the agricultural sector that biotechnology has had
a significant industrial-scale economic impact. A recent study carried out over a period on 12
years measured some of the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of GM crop
technology133. The study found that the economic performance and environmental impacts of
GM crop cultivation are largely subject to variations at the local level. The study found that in
general biotechnology has had a significantly positive economic impact on farms. In 2007, the
direct global farm income benefit from GM crops was estimated to be EUR 7.5 billion,
equivalent to adding 4.4% to the value of global production of soybeans, maize, canola and
cotton crops. Since 1996 when cultivation began, income on farms was estimated to have
collectively increased by over EUR 32.8 billion, EUR 16.4 billion of which was gained in
developing countries, mainly derived from GM cotton and GM soybean cultivation134.
As mentioned in previous sub-sections, the issue of food availability is one of growing concern,
especially in countries where water is scarce and distribution is uneven. Food shortage can have
devastating effects on different populations, resulting in conflict in the most extreme cases.
Proponents of GM crops believe that by using this technology, world hunger and food shortages
could be dealt with135. They suggest that the use of this technology will result in bigger harvests,
although it is uncertain whether such a technology would be successful in ensuring food
security.
132
OECD, Sustainable Production of Second-Generation Biofuels, 2010
133
www.biologs.bf.lu.lv/grozs/Mikrobiologijas/Uzturzinatne/2009_global_impactstudy.pdf [Accessed the 06/02/
2010]
134
Based on an exchange rate of USD 1.00 = EUR 0.7440584684, as of June 2007
135
UN Chronicle, Biotechnology -- A Solution to Hunger?, 2009, available at:
www.un.org/wcm/content/site/chronicle/cache/bypass/lang/en/home/archive/Issues2009/pid/5084;jsessionid=79C
17373C9D2B47187E823B8A75ACBE5?ctnscroll_articleContainerList=1_0&ctnlistpagination_articleContainerList=true
[Accessed the 06/02/2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
69
Although there is still much uncertainty surrounding the safety and environmental impacts of
GM crops (see section 4.2.2) a recent review, carried out over 10 years, appears to suggest that
no evidence exists to show that GM crops can cause environmental harm136. In some
circumstances, GM crop cultivation can have a positive impact on the environment. For
example, pesticide use on Bt cotton is significantly lower than on conventional varieties and
toxic and persistent herbicides used on soybeans have been substituted by less toxic chemicals.
In the healthcare sector, biotechnology has been responsible for the introduction of some new
treatments and diagnostic tools and some improvements in palliative care. More healthcare
improvements are promised in the future, particularly through stem cell therapy. In 2008, stem
cell technology made it possible to engineer a successfully transplanted human trachea137. It is
hoped that within the near future, this type of technology will be used to cure some of the most
traumatic and debilitating conditions, such as spinal cord injuries and other neurodegenerative
diseases138,139.
4.1.3. INFORMATION SCIENCE
Information technology has been noted for its potential as a tool in the fight against global
warming. While also a significant consumer of energy, IT promises to increase the efficiency of
existing systems, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), as well as to
dematerialise traditionally physical items, such as paper, thus reducing environmental
impacts140.
As Figure 4-1 shows, the greatest gains can be made in applying IT to HVAC and lighting systems
in buildings. These gains are most often due to more refined control of the building system
components. For example, a ‘simple’ thermostat lacking IT would maintain the building
temperature at all times, unless manually adjusted by a building manager. By including IT, a
smart thermostat can be programmed to turn off at night and on at the weekend depending on
when people are not occupying the building, thus saving significant amounts of energy from
heating and cooling systems.
Additionally, IT can be used for gathering and analysing resource consumption data, offering
new support to new participatory processes of environmental decision-making. This analysis of
data can help identify the exact points of improvement for a system on a cost-effective basis. A
common phrase in the energy efficiency measure is, ‘You can’t save what you can’t measure’.
136
Sanvido O, Romeis J, and Bigler F. (2008) Ecological impacts of genetically modified crops: ten years of field
research and commercial cultivation. Advances in biochemical engineering/biotechnology, 2007;107:235-78.
137
ScienceDaily, 2008, Adult Stem Cell Breakthrough: First Tissue-Engineered Trachea Successfully Transplanted
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081119092939.htm [Accessed the 06/02/2010]
138
Mathai K. I., et al. Stem cell therapy for spinal cord injury - A plea for rationality, Indian Journal of Neurotrauma,
2008, 5(1): 7-10
139
www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/01/fda-approves-em/ [Accessed 06/02/2010]
140
BIO Intelligence Service. Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency. European
Commission DG INFSO. September, 2008. ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/sustainable-growth/ict4eefinal-report_en.pdf [Accessed the 02/02/ 2010]
70
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
While not to be taken as a strict rule, data driven energy efficiency analysis is the equivalent of
turning on a light in a dark room – previously unidentified opportunities for economically saving
energy reveal themselves.
ICT sector electricity use and energy saving potential
1000
BAU-scenarios
Eco-scenarios
Consumer electronics
500
TWh
0
-500
ICT
sector
Efficient
motors
Energy
Grids
Dematerialisation
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
HVAC and
lighting
Figure 4-1: ICT sector electricity use and energy saving potential140
One of the most significant benefits of information technology thus far has been in the area of
information retrieval. By liberating access to information that had previously been located
within expensive books or the heads of well-trained experts, web searches have democratised
the idea of knowledge. Open information is perhaps the biggest promise of the web, providing a
greater equality than the physical world can offer. This has enormous social and economic
significance. For example, a child living in an impoverished area with poor schools can still
access high-level information on any subject of his choosing, with the click of a mouse. In the
future, efforts will continue to expand the amount of information available, but also the way it
is retrieved. Experts from around the world use Wikipedia as a model to test new querying
techniques, which offer improved accuracy of responses141.
As device size shrinks and network connectivity improves, the opportunities to integrate
information technology into daily life increase. Already playing a significant role in fields like
logistics, pervasive computing is expected to become increasingly important in the 21st century.
Logistics operations utilise RFID technology in order to accurately track the location and status
of cargo, greatly improving efficiency and reducing logistics costs. In addition, software
programs and extensive databases tied with geographical location services allow for supply
chain optimisation, greatly reducing not only costs but also environmental impacts by
optimising load and product sourcing. Environmental factors, such as greenhouse gas emissions
and water usage, are beginning to be integrated into major software packages to ease a
transition to carbon management. Technology of this form is expected to trickle into other, less
141
Medelyan, O., et al. Mining meaning from Wikipedia. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, Volume
67, Issue 9, pp. 716-754, 2009.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
71
commercial aspects of life also. RFID chips are included in many world passports. Even smaller
devices, such as those that can be interwoven with the fabric of clothing, are currently being
devised. These devices could, for example, monitor body temperature and automatically control
room temperature accordingly. In addition, RFID can be used in secure environments in which
they are used to grant entry to certain users.
Information technology is penetrating other sectors, making the world around us ‘smarter’. The
current benefits are beginning to be seen in the field of health care with the development
robotic limbs that can communicate with the brain, and programmes meant to slow down
mental ageing. Smart automated systems are used in order to provide factory metrics and give
managers an idea of productivity and system efficiency. Electricity is the next industry that is
getting smarter. The smart grid of the future promises to decrease energy demand, improve the
integration of renewable energies, and increase reliability and stability by integrating
information technology into the grid infrastructure. IT devices embedded within the system
improve real-time monitoring and control, allowing a two-way flow of electricity.
4.1.4. COGNITIVE SCIENCE
A number of scientific institutions are enthusiastic regarding the possible applications of
converging technologies, including cognitive science, whether alone or in combination with
other technologies, since they believe that these applications can contribute to find a solution
to many problems, notably by improving neuronal and cognitive human performance142.
Moreover, cognitive science has accumulated considerable knowledge about social interactions,
effective communication, etc. In terms of biomedical research, the application of neuroimaging
and imaging genetics techniques to the human brain will permit to perform an early
identification of individuals with neurologic or psychiatric health risks. This will be significant not
only at the individual level but also for public health, both in local and global communities. Such
changes in the diagnostic power will change many different determinants of population health,
defined in the public health literature to include individual, environmental, behaviour and
lifestyle factors, as well as access to health services143. This will finally contribute to the
development of a society with increasingly well- informed consumers that are motivated to seek
preventive, clinical and social services144.
The development of new neurotechnologies will allow individuals to understand how their
emotions influence their decisions (e.g. financial decisions), they will become more competitive
and obtain a neurocompetitive advantage. Thus, for instance, neurotechnologically improved
traders will be provided with a neuro-feedback in real time, allowing them to control their
emotions better and more immediately82.
142
Roco MC and Bainbridge WS. Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Integrating From the
Nanoscale. Journal of Nanoparticle Research, 4, 2004.
143
Merson M., et al. International public health: diseases, programs, systems and polices. Sudbury, MA: Jones &
Bartlett Publishing, 2006.
144
Tairyan K and Illes J. Imaging genetics and the power of combined technologies: a perspective from neuroethics.
Neuroscience 164, 7–15, 2009.
72
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
In addition to the direct benefits that the development of cognitive science can provide to our
society, there are several indirect benefits, mainly linked to the development of associated
disciplines (e.g. linguistics). For instance, the study of some aspects of brain functioning
constitutes an important challenge for the development of new mathematical models.
Computer sciences development also needs a better knowledge of neural and cognitive
processes (e.g. memory, choice, language processing, etc.) to create programmes that are
capable of simulating human skills73,145. For instance, speech recognition devices are very
promising technologies since they will have enormous implications for the future organisation
of work86.
In brief, the brain, being the most complex and flexible of all systems known, constitutes a
source of novel ideas for this discipline.
Social sciences are and will also be significantly affected by future developments in cognitive
science. In fact, several areas of social sciences dealing with mental aspects, such as social
psychology or cognitive economics and cognitive sociology are strictly linked to cognitive
science. As a consequence, regarding the environment, the benefits associated to the
development of cognitive science are mainly related to a better knowledge of decision making
process.
Through influencing social and political processes, cognitive science can also have indirect
benefits/impacts on the environment. For instance, a better use of the environment (less
waste, better use of available resources, sound practices, proper evaluation of disutility and
hidden costs) partly depends on decision making processes which could lead to environmentfriendly outcomes or not. Thus, cognitive science, as a discipline which studies people's actual
decision-making processes and the legal and moral grounds underlying them, could play a role
in improving and favour environmental friendly decisions (e.g. less waste). Few research works
are currently following this logic and have shown interesting results. It has been demonstrated,
for instance, that people's decisions are more sensitive to normative information concerning
what people do (social norms) than to normative information concerning the environment. So,
for example, the standard "save water and preserve the environment by reusing your towel"
hotel instruction doesn't work nearly as well as the modified prompt: "Most guests in this hotel
reuse their towel so as to save water and preserve the environment"146.
145
Bibel, W. Information Technology, March 21st 2005 report, European Commission, Directorate-General for
Research Directorate K, Key technologies for Europe. 2005.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
73
Figure 4-2: Towel reuse rates as a function of sign in hotel room146.
Thus, cognitive science can strongly influence social psychology, clarifying the processes
underlying the emergence of norms, their implementation, their dynamics, interactions etc.,
finally helping to understand an essential part of collective behaviour, policy setting, attitude
towards rules and practices.
Moreover, when cognitive science combines with information sciences, we get the added
dimension of information gathering and the delivery of contextual information and instructions.
For a simple example, mobile phones are already transforming the way environmental issues
such as water availability, forest fires, crops, etc. are handled on a daily basis. Therefore, the
cognitive scientific dimension has not huge direct environmental impacts, but when cognitive
science intervenes in more complex situations such as education, then, combined with ICT, it
can indirectly bring about vast changes on the environment.
In addition, a better understanding of the underpinnings of the sense of well-being performed
through cognitive science can lead to more efficient use of available resources. As an example, if
we gain an understanding of the thirst for big cars, large living spaces etc., which lead to
sprawling suburban landscapes in the US and elsewhere, it might be possible to satisfy the
underlying need at a fraction of the present environmental and social cost.
It appears therefore that there is a path from cognitive science to social and political processes,
and that these in turn impact upon the environment in very strong ways, albeit indirectly, via
human attitudes and actions.
146
Cialdini RB, Basic Social Influence Is Underestimated, Psychological Inquiry 2005, Vol. 16, No. 4, 158–161.
Glodestaien NJ et al. A Room with a Viewpoint: Using Social Norms to Motivate Environmental Conservation in
Hotels. Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 35, 2008.
74
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
4.2.
IMPACTS AND RISKS
4.2.1. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
While nanomaterials and nanotechnologies are expected to yield numerous benefits, they may
also have adverse effects on health and the environment. The main concern is nanoparticles
which are so small that they are able to penetrate cell membranes, to enter the blood stream,
to pass through biological membranes, and move throughout biological systems (skin, lungs, the
digestive tract, the blood/brain barrier, etc.)148. Manufactured nanoparticles are particularly
dangerous because they are not fixed in a material so they can move around in the air and
could, depending on their size, enter the living organisms via inhalation, the digestive system
and the skin. If the immune system does not block them, they can persist in the body147.
Moreover, consequences of the accumulation of nanoparticles in the body are unknown20. Even
though nanomaterials are not toxic on their own, they possess the capacity to bind and carry
other chemicals with them, which could potentially be of concern (e.g. metal catalysts used
during metal production). Moreover, nanomaterials could also catalyse reactions involving
other chemicals and potentially produce toxic substances (e.g. free radicals). It has been
observed, for instance, that carbon nanotubes can cause inflammation and granulomas (scarlike lesions), which precede the development of cancers such as mesothelioma, and that they
are genotoxic (toxicity that includes damage of DNA)148. In some articles149, nanotubes are
compared to asbestos fibres in form and size. Therefore the potential harmful of nanotubes
could be similar to those of asbestos and risk may be chronic rather than acute20.
In the food industry, although nanomaterials from food packaging are not intentionally ingested
or inhaled by consumers, they could migrate into food products and the risk could be greater
when the food is in direct contact with the packaging containing nanoparticles14. For example,
metallic or mineral nanoparticles are found in PET bottles or in foil wrapped around chocolate
bars. Concern has been raised regarding the fact that consumers could ingest the released
nanoparticles but, for the moment, this risk cannot be precisely evaluated, since the
circumstances under which nanoparticles can pass through plastic and permeate foods is
unknown14.
The opportunity of better health care and diagnostics that nanotechnologies provide, improving
quality of life and prolonging life span, may therefore be attenuated by undesirable side effects.
In addition, it should be taken into account that an extended individual life span could have
strong impacts on society, modifying the financial equilibrium of health care systems,
retirement plans or social compensation.
147
Centre for Technology Assessment, TA-Swiss. Public reaction to nanotechnology in Switzerland, Report on
publifocus discussion forum “Nanotechnology, health and the environment”: www.taswiss.ch/a/nano_pfna/2006_TAP8_Nanotechnologien_e.pdf
148
Small Sizes that Matter: Opportunities and Risks of Nanotechnologies, Joint report of the Allianz Center for
Technology and the OECD International Futures Programme, ed. Dr. Christoph Lauterwasser, OECD, 2007.
149
Pacurari M., et al. Single- and multi-wall carbon nanotubes versus asbestos: are the carbon nanotubes a new
health risk to humans? J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2010 ;73(5):378-95
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
75
Concerning impacts on the environment, nanoparticles can be released into the air and water
easily during different steps of the life-cycle of nanoparticle-containing products (production,
use, transport, incineration, etc.) and ultimately contaminate the groundwater and the soil.
Manufactured nanoparticles enter the environment through intentional releases as well as
unintentional releases such as atmospheric emissions and solid or liquid waste streams from
production facilities. Release of nanoparticles can be due to their use to remediate
contaminated soils including the use of nano-iron used to remediate groundwater or to
filtration processes. In addition, nanoparticles in paints, fabrics, and personal health care
products, including sunscreens and cosmetics, enter the environment proportional to their
use150. Once in ecosystems, nanoparticles can accumulate in living organisms (animals and
plants) and be transported through the food web to humans, with potential deleterious impacts
on both humans and the environment. Moreover, as nanoparticles are present in many objects,
they become waste after their use.
Particles in solid wastes, wastewater effluents, direct discharges, or accidental spillages can be
transported to aquatic systems by wind or rainwater runoff. In aquatic systems, colloid is the
generic term applied to nanoparticles. The natural NM fraction has been identified as being of
particular concern because of the changes that occur in this size range. Aquatic colloids
comprise macromolecular organic materials, as well as colloidal inorganic species. Their small
size and large surface area per unit mass make them important binding phases for both organic
and inorganic contaminants. In the case of aquatic ecosystems, for instance, since available
standard wastewater treatment methods are poorly suited to the capture of nanoparticles,
nanoparticles have often been found in the output of water treatment plants. Specific steps
such as pre-coagulation or filtration are generally necessary to remove nanoparticles from
waste waters, but they are not always performed96. The behaviour and the persistence of
nanoparticles is unknown, thus the environmental pollution of nanoparticles cannot be
anticipated.
4.2.2. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
As one of the most controversial fields of biotechnology, GM crop cultivation has been the
subject of much speculation over its effects on human and environmental health, as well as the
economic impacts. In recent years evidence has been gathered that points to stagnating or even
decreasing yields in the long term151. In the case of insect resistant crops, it is still uncertain in
some cases whether planting of GM crops will result in a proliferation of insects which harbour a
resistance for the toxins in the plant. This would result in an advantage for insects carrying this
trait as toxins may have rid them of competing organisms (such as non-target arthropods), and
it may be increasingly difficult to manage pests, potentially requiring more insecticide to be
used. Although there is much debate surrounding this issue, pest resistance to some GM crop
150
Klaine et al. NANOMATERIALS IN THE ENVIRONMENT: BEHAVIOR, FATE, BIOAVAILABILITY, AND EFFECTS.
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Vol. 27, No. 9, pp. 1825–1851, 2008.
151
Eyhorn F, et al. The viability of cotton-based organic agriculture systems in India. International Journal of
Agricultural Sustainability, 2007.
76
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
defences (such as those in Bt cotton crops) has been confirmed in some cases152. Others studies
also show, however, that even resistant individuals, although able to survive, are still subject to
detrimental effects of exposure, and thus cannot grow and reproduce at the same rate as they
would if feed on non-GM crops153. As mentioned earlier, GM crops may have an effect on nontarget insects, which may suffer population decline due to toxins in plants. In the case of
monarch butterflies, lab studies showed that if fed significant amounts of Bt corn pollen,
monarch butterfly caterpillars are subject to extreme toxicity and die as a result. In field,
however, some studies indicate that the effect of Bt corn on local monarch populations is
negligible154. However, this aspect of GM crops continues to be investigated, in some cases
providing inconclusive results155.
There is also some concern over the proliferation of GM crops. If crops such as these are able to
overcome natural pests, they may have a competitive advantage over local wild plants. As a
result, GM crops could spread into wild areas, thus affecting local biodiversity. In addition to
this, there is some concern that genetically modified crops may hybridise with wild plants, to
produce herbicide resistant weeds156. Although reproduction is inhibited in some GM crops,
there is still some concern over the possibility of horizontal gene transfer, whereby
microorganisms such as bacteria and viruses are able to ‘sequester’ genes in GM plants, and
spread these to other types of plants. However, some studies have shown that there is a
negligible risk of stable gene transfer, and therefore a low risk of horizontal spread of active
genetic material to other organisms157. The results of these studies still require ongoing
investigation, as there is still a significant amount of uncertainty in relation to the environmental
impacts of GM crop cultivation.
Although zooremediation can be employed to restore a contaminated area, paradoxically, it can
also result in harm to ecosystems. There is a risk that introducing alien species to a habitat could
potentially result in invasion of these habitats. Efforts must be made to ensure that the
introduction of exotic species does not upset the balance of certain ecosystems, and does not
have a negative effect on local biodiversity158.
152
University of Arizona, First documented case of pest resistance to biotech cotton, 2008
www.physorg.com/news121614449.html [Accessed the 08/02/2010]
153
Carrière Y. et al. Effects of Resistance to Bt Cotton on Diapause in the Pink Bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella,
Journal of Insect Science, 47(9): 1-12, 2008.
154
Sears M. K., et al. Impact of Bt corn pollen on monarch butterfly populations: A risk assessment, Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2001: 98 ( 21): 11937-11942.
155
Aviron S., et al. Case-specific monitoring of butterflies to determine potential effects of transgenic Bt-maize in
Switzerland, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 131(3-4): 137-144, 2009.
156
Source: www.springerlink.com/content/761378n0w4480165/ [Accessed online the 02/02/2010]
157
Kellya B.G., et al. Gene transfer events and their occurrence in selected environment. Food and Chemical
Toxicology. 47(5): 978-983, 2009.
158
Gifford S., et al. Aquatic zooremediation: deploying animals to remediate contaminated aquatic environments.
TRENDS in Biotechnology, 2006, 25(2): 60-65
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
77
The use of novel biotechnologies in medical treatment can also have both positive and negative
consequences. For example, for the last two decades, researchers in the biotechnology field
have been struggling to produce positive results from the application of gene therapies in
humans. Human gene therapy involves the introduction of new genetic materials into the cells
of living human beings for the treatment of such diseases as cystic fibrosis. In 1999, the first
death occurred during a gene therapy trial. Since then, similar events have taken place,
prompting regulators and ethics committees to treat gene therapy trials with extreme
caution159. It has also caused further debate about the ethics of biotechnology and of
biotechnology researchers. In some circumstances, the researchers involved in clinical trials may
have a financial interest in successful trial outcomes, raising concerns that this could create a
conflict of interest with their obligations to trial participants. While such conflicts of interest are
of serious concern, it is difficult to divorce biotechnology research entirely from commercial
involvement and profit motives. Almost invariably products will only be brought to the market if
there is some prospect of profitability.
4.2.3. INFORMATION SCIENCE
Because of the rapid adoption of information science, the electrical consumption of the IT
sector is rising at an alarming rate. Already consuming 8% of the EU-27 electricity use, IT devices
and consumer electronics are expected to account for nearly 11% of EU-27 electricity use in
2020160. This rise is in direct conflict with the EU climate and energy goals of a 20% reduction in
energy consumption by 2020. Figure 4-3 displays the energy increase by product type. Because
of the rise of pervasive, ubiquitous computing that connect to the cloud, the electricity
consumption of servers and data centres is expected significantly increase almost 330%, from
29 TWh/a in 2005 to 96 TWh/a in 2020. Many voluntary initiatives have been started in order to
combat this increase, such as the ICT4EE Forum161 and the Green Grid162, in addition to
regulations such as Ecodesign and Energy Star. However, these initiatives are just in their infant
stages and have not yet produced significant results.
159
Keim B., Gene Therapy: Is Death an Acceptable Risk?, 2007
www.wired.com/medtech/genetics/news/2007/08/gene_therapy [Accessed the 08/02/2010]
160
BIO Intelligence Service. Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies on Energy Efficiency. European
Commission DG INFSO. September, 2008. ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/sustainable-growth/ict4eefinal-report_en.pdf [Accessed the 02/02/2010]
78
161
www.ict4ee.eu [Accessed the 02/02/2010]
162
www.thegreengrid.org [Accessed the 02/02/2010]
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
BAU Scenario Annual Electricity Consumption of ICT (in TWh/a)
450
400
Cellular Phone Network
Annual Electricity Consumption in TWh
Telecom Core Network
350
Servers/Data Center
Mobile phones
300
Broadband Modems
Fax Machines
250
Smart Phones
DECT Phones
200
Set-Top-Boxes
VHS/DVD Player
150
Audio Systems
Televisions
100
Imaging Equipment
Mobile Devices
50
Computer/Monitors
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 4-3: BAU Scenario Annual Electricity Consumption of ICT in TWh/a (EU-25)
In addition to energetic environmental concerns, widespread use of IT hardware poses the
problem of electronic waste (e-waste). Despite regulations such as the Restriction of Hazardous
Substances (RoHS) and Waste Electronic and Electrical Equipment (WEEE) Directives, electronics
still incorporate many hazardous or suspected hazardous substances, such as heavy metals and
flame retardants. In many cases, waste disposal takes place in developing countries with few
environmental and health regulations, passing the burden from the consumer to the disposer.
It is well-known that electronic components use a variety of precious metals, such as gold,
silver, platinum, palladium, and iridium. Because of the scarce quantities of these elements,
there could be a resource conflict as the consumption of electronic IT hardware continues to
rise. Alternatives to these materials are being researched but are still elusive in implementation.
Information technology has already had a significant impact on society. The vast majority of
Europeans have access to a computer, as well as devices such as mobile phones and media
players. These devices have become connected to the Internet with almost ubiquitous access to
broadband. The social and economic impacts are far-reaching. For example, the way people
communicate has completely changed in less than twenty years. Taking the place of physical
mail, landline phone calls, and personal visits, communication media such as email, text
messaging, and video calls have emerged. Some would argue that this has caused society to
become more isolated because of lack of physical contact with others, while others would assert
that society has become more connected because of the ease of communication and constant
availability. In either case, the behavioural shift has been widespread and rapid. Connectivity
has even reached a point in which society sometimes need to address an “addiction” to
connectivity, with many people needing to make an effort in order to unplug and disconnect for
a small period of time.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
79
Information technology has been a disruptive force to many traditional business models, most
notably the music and film industries. High speed broadband with a closely connected online
community led to the emergence of content piracy, or the illegal downloading of copyrighted
material. Music and film industries have yet to adjust to the digital age.
4.2.4. COGNITIVE SCIENCE
Most of the impacts of cognitive science applications are effects expected in the future, and not
currently affecting our society, since the great majority of applications in this field are still not
available for the general public. Thus, most of the impacts are hypothetical in the long term and
have not yet been proven, and their occurrence will depend on the uncertain factors mentioned
before, since where there is opportunity, there also is risk, and risks can materialise into
negative impacts. Also, in the specific case of cognitive science, the main long term impacts are
expected to be on the social and economic spheres rather than on the environment. Indeed, as
we have seen in section 4.1.4. cognitive science can have important indirect benefits for the
environment.
Additional socio-economic impacts can arise if the economic risk taken to invest in these
promising technologies which could result in an economic failure. However, impacts can also
arise if consumers accept the new technologies unconditionally, without considering their
potential consequences. A scenario could be that an increasing number of decisions are
delegated to machines. This could be done for the sake of convenience or security to begin with,
but could ultimately end up in a loss of knowledge and skill, and a surrender of autonomy and
responsibility. One can imagine that an uncontrolled development of cognitive science could
finally contribute to the success of a view conceiving the world as a huge computational
machine in which human beings are simply another component. This view could have strong
impacts on the concepts of self-identity, freedom, morality, choice, etc.
Moreover, impacts due to an eventual misuse of these technologies cannot be excluded. The
misuse of these technologies could have dramatic impacts in some cases such as the cognitive
science applications developed for domination in war situations (e.g. modification of soldiers’
emotions). New military threats and the perception of these may decrease stability and
endanger international security. Also, many of these technologies, once misused, may
undermine and jeopardise the international law of warfare. It could be imagined that individuals
possessing enhanced mental skills would be valued and dominate society. The benefits could
also be countered by the potential use of neurotechnologies for coercive purposes or for
neuroweapons that selectively erase memories82. Moreover, some impacts could arise if
disabled people did not want to benefit from the cure and if a social pressure existed to induce
individuals to be mentally upgraded.
80
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
This page has been left intentionally blank
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
81
5. IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS
5.1.
NANOTECHNOLOGIES
In 2004, the European Commission (EC) proposed a European Strategy for nanotechnology in
which the importance of developing an ’integrated, safe and responsible approach’ was
stressed163. The objective of this common strategy is to straighten the EU’s leading position and,
at the same time, to consider the associated environmental and health issues.
More recently the EC aims has presented a new strategy taking into account society
expectations and concerns, ensuring protection and safety, through significant innovation for
enhanced industrial competitiveness. In the coming Action Plan, the societal dimension will be
addressed by developing an appropriate system of proactive governance. For instance, public
consultations on the revision of the EC code of conduct for nanoresearch, and on the new
Action Plan are planned. A Survey on Knowledge, Attitudes and Opinions across EU Youth is also
undertaken164.
In parallel the EC has developed a specific strategy for public communication about
nanotechnology for the period 2009-2011. The document, "Communicating Nanotechnology:
Why, to Whom, Saying What and How?", examines, in detail, the current EC strategy for
communicating nanotechnology, and lays out a roadmap for the future. The current program
targets young people and general public through audiovisual, press and web media. Business,
scientists, nongovernmental organizations and policy makers will also be addressed via
participatory events, workshops, videos and publications165.
One of the aspects to consider is that nanotechnology combined with information and
communication technologies may lead to new technological tools, which, deployed under the
guidance of cognitive science, could deeply change our daily lives, the structure of professions,
or the political structure of society. Mobile phones, surveillance cameras, drones, etc., are
already changing the rules of communication in society, and ultra-miniaturisation might amplify
this trend considerably166.
Nanomaterials pose a considerable governance challenge as many regulations are not easily
applicable to nanomaterials. This is the case of REACH167. REACH is the regulation on the
163
Towards a European Strategy for Nanotechnology, COM(2004)338
164
Document available at :
www.ec.europa.eu/nanotechnology/index_en.html ; [Accessed online the 28/06/2010]
165
Document available at :
www.ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/nanotechnology/docs/communicating-nanotechnology_en.pdf
82
166
Personal communication, Prof. Daniel Andler.
167
Lacourt S. L’incertitude : un défi supplémentaire pour la régulation des nanotechnologies. 2009.
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals168. The main objective of
REACH is to ensure a high level of protection of human health and environment during the life
cycle of chemicals. To achieve this aim, the risks of all the chemicals of which over one tonne
per manufacturer or importer is produced or imported every year will have to be assessed by
their manufacturers or importers, and adequate safety information will have to be provided to
users. In REACH the legislative text contains no reference to the size, form, and fabrication
process. Moreover, the threshold of 1 tonne given by the REACH regulation is not applicable to
nanoparticles because in most of cases less than 1 tonne is produced and in the regulation, the
requests for data have been formulated taking into account only macro or micro quantities of
materials but not nanoquantities169.
In France, the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (AFSSET) give
advice on the implementation of the precautionary principle on nanotechnology issue, owing to
the conclusion that data on nanoparticle associated hazards are not sufficient to evaluate the
risk170.
Similarly, safety limits for particles in the air (e.g. in workplace environments) are generally
based on mass concentrations per volume. These approaches do not take into account the
characteristics of surface area and surface chemistry of nanoparticles that have been suggested
as particularly relevant to determine their toxicity.
An additional issue for policy makers is that no labelling is required to indicate whether a
product contains nanomaterials. Therefore, some products containing nanomaterials are
labelled as such, while others are not. This is due to the fact that manufacturers of nanoparticle
containing products do not know if this labelling would be beneficial or detrimental to product
sales96. With the future development of such products, specific legislation concerning
consumers’ information through labelling should be considered.
As has been seen, the current lack of methods to characterise, detect and measure
nanomaterials is a serious inhibitor towards ensuring the protection of health and the
environment, and for the elaboration of a quantitative risk assessment. Moreover, the
development of processes to efficiently remove nanoparticles from waste (e.g. water) is
necessary to avoid the contamination of the environment with these potentially persistent and
toxic pollutants.
Thus, for the moment, current regulatory systems and safety limits are not adequate to take
into account nanoscale pollutants. Science and policy are two intersecting and co-evolving
domains which can interact with each other. To face the potential environmental and health
168
Document available at:
www .ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/chemicals/documents/reach/index_en.htm [Accessed online the 28/06/2010]
169
Nanoquantities refer to parts per billion (ppb) which corresponds to a ratio of 10-9, such as 1µg/kg.
170
Farcy L. Nanomatériaux: l’Afsset prête à aller jusqu’à l’interdiction. Sciences et Avenir. 25/03/2010:
tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualites/sciences/fondamental/20100325.OBS1021/nanomateriaux_lafsset_prete_a_all
er_jusqua_linterdictio.html [Accessed online 26/03/2010]
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
83
risks posed by nanoparticles and to decrease the associated uncertainty, a number of scientific
and regulatory actions can be initiated by policy makers, despite the lack of knowledge.
A homogeneous methodology for the risk assessment of nanotechnologies could be developed
at international level and could be defined as mandatory at an early stage of the development
of new nanotechnologies.
In this context, the eventual negative impacts of exposure should be prevented by appropriate
precautionary measures or regulations on production processes, as well as on the use and
disposal of nanoparticle containing products and on nanotechnology based processes.
To help policy makers grasp the issues of nanotechnology, public engagement is important and
should be taken into account in debates and consensus conferences where experts are not the
only people present, and where the audience could interact with speakers (scientists, policymakers, stakeholders, etc.). Nevertheless the main difficulties are to translate the outcomes of
these meetings into action. Moreover, public engagement alone cannot impact research
policies; it needs to be integrated in the expertise process and not just used to legitimate policy
decisions. Policies should take into account social mobilisation and the opinion of emerging
concerned groups during the innovation process171.
However, more communication on the subject and further education of populations would be
necessary to get a better understanding of the key stakes involved in nanotechnology.
Concerned groups could be involved in the negotiation and construction of socio-technological
actions.
5.2.
BIOTECHNOLOGIES
There are significant challenges for policy makers when dealing with biotechnological
developments. One of the greatest is perhaps keeping abreast of new technological
developments, not only those that are economically beneficial, but also those which have the
potential to provide assistance in such areas as environmental protection and human health. It
is important also to be aware of changes in public attitudes towards biotechnology.
Developments in biotechnology are creating challenges concerning funding, oversight, and
regulation of novel technologies and their applications. Human stem cell research, for example,
has been one of the most controversial. It holds great promise for the development of medical
therapies, but the link between human reproduction and research on embryonic stem cells has
resulted in heated debate and opposition. Efforts to promote research and commercialisation
needs to be matched with appropriate regulatory controls, designed to protect society from the
actual and potential risks associated with the technology and to alleviate pubic concerns about
the technology. Often, the technology moves ahead of policy making, forcing governments to
play ‘catch-up’ in their policy development work.
171
Kaufmann A., et al. Why enrol citizens in the governance of nanotechnology? M. Kaiser et al. (eds), Governing
future technologies, Sociology of the sciences Yearbook 27. 2010: 201-215
84
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
Ethics committees may help resolve ethical conflicts, and provide advice to policy makers. Often
such groups bring together experts from several areas, and may include government officials. In
the biotechnology field, they can have significant importance due to the continuously evolving
nature of the field.
As well as tackling national concern over these types of technologies, international variations in
laws regarding biotechnology may also be a source of challenges for policy makers. In 2003, for
example, a case was filed at the World Trade Organisation against the EU’s moratorium on the
introduction GMO crop technology. In July of the same year, the EU drafted new regulations on
the labelling of foods containing ingredients derived from GMOs. In 2006, the WTO panel issued
a report stating that the moratorium on GM products between 1999 and 2003 was in fact
unlawful and a barrier to international trade. Moreover, the panel found that several EU MS had
banned GM products which had already received approval by the EU, seemingly without
scientific basis. This presents an example of where national political interests conflict with the
ever-growing trend for globalisation172.
One of the issues with GM crop regulation is that environmental risk assessment studies vary
significantly in method, at times in direct conflict with one another173. Homogenisation of risk
assessment methods may be required to determine the long term effects of GM crops both in lab
based experiments and in the field.
These differences are not only to be observed across the international playing field – biotech
policies often also differ among MS in the EU. In Germany and Italy for example, policy makers
have remained cautious in relation to the adoption of GMOs in agriculture and medical
biotechnologies. However, in the UK, although GMO technology is also approached with
caution, policy makers in this country appear to be more permissive towards embryonic stem
cell research and other biomedical research173.
Legislation related to stem cell technology also differs greatly across different areas and nations.
In Europe for example, the Council of Europe states under Article Number 13 of the European
Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine (ETS No. 164) that “an intervention seeking to
modify the human genome may only be undertaken for preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic
purposes and only if its aim is not to introduce any modification in the genome of any
descendants”. It also states that the creation of human embryos for research purposes is
prohibited. This legislation could in effect ban the creation of human-animal hybrids and chimeras.
However, in the UK, where the Convention has not been signed, the laws governing the legality of
using such technology differ somewhat from those in the Convention174.
To date, limited consensus has emerged on how to achieve uniformity across governments in
controlling the application of biotechnology.
172
Jasanoff S., Trading uncertainties: the transatlantic divide in regulating biotechnology, CESifo DICE Report, 2008
173
Johnson K. L., et al. How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis? Trends in
Plant Science. 12(1): 1-5, 2007.
174
Krepelka F., European Union and Controversial Biotechnologies – Technology, Economy, Ethics, Politics and Law in
United Europe, Journal of International Biotechnology Law. 2008, 5(5):211–220
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
85
5.3.
INFORMATION SCIENCES
The large energy consumption and the even larger opportunity for savings with IT have become
fully recognised and have become subject to different legislative efforts , such as Ecodesign
regulations175 and Codes of Conduct176. In addition, a recent voluntary initiative entitled
ICT4EE177 brings together international organisations in the IT industry, including Digital Europe,
the Japan Business Council in Europe, TechAmerica Europe, and the Global e-Sustainability
Initiative, in order to decrease the energy consumption of IT and promote its use in encouraging
energy efficiency.
The rise of information technology, and particularly the Internet, has ushered in the age of
globalisation. Online commerce has emerged as a strong competitor to traditional, brick and
mortar shops. Items can be purchased from the other side of the world and then shipped to
your doorstep. This has posed problems for import and export legislation, forcing regulators to
reconsider the application of taxes and tariffs to online commerce.
Import and export legislation also plays a role when considering the issue of electronic waste (ewaste), which is rapidly growing with the increased use of IT devices. Often times, industrialised
countries consume electronic products which are then transported to developing countries with
more relaxed environmental, health and safety legislation. The toxic materials are often not
properly disposed of, causing environmental and health concerns in these regions.
Privacy is a particularly difficult subject for policy makers. As more information becomes
digitised in the cloud or in RFID devices, the risk increases for identity theft, or the stealing of
personal information for malicious purposes. Credit card information is frequently stolen and
used in order to purchase items over the Internet. Policy makers have implemented regulations
in order to ensure that companies handle personal information with care. Law enforcement has
also prosecuted people who have committed web crimes. However, they must continue to
make advances with a combination of technical and regulatory solutions in order to keep certain
information in the private domain.
Copyright issues also continue to pose a significant problem to policy makers. The illegal
downloading of copyrighted material has not abated, despite efforts from the industry and law
enforcement. Many enterprising companies are attempting to provide a legal alternative to
piracy, but regional and antiquated copyright laws and a stubborn industry have presented
barriers to entry. Policy makers and the industry must work together in order to remove the
barriers and ensure that copyrighted material can be legally downloaded in digital form.
175
Products studies or in progress: simple set-top boxes, computers and displays, imaging equipment, televisions,
standby and off-mode losses, battery charges and external power supplies, complex set-top boxes, sound and
imaging equipment, electric motors, water pumps, networked standby
176
Codes of conduct for: standby, data centres, digital TV services, broadband communication equipment, external
power supplies, uninterruptible power supplies. Available at:
www.re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/energyefficiency/html/standby_initiative.htm [Accessed online 21/04/2010]
177
Digital Europe website: www.ict4ee.eu [Accessed online 21/04/2010]
86
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
The EU already recognises the importance of information technology by designating the
European Commission DG Information Society to manage the subject. DG INFSO works on many
of the issues already discussed, such as increasing broadband penetration and ensuring privacy
in digital issues178.
The information technology industry has typically been self-regulated, developing with
standards bodies formed with the main players in the sector and following opportunities in the
market in order to continue developing. This trend is expected to continue into the future, with
limited involvement from policy makers. However, policy makers should remain abreast of
developments within information technology in order to apply it appropriately while solving
problems in other areas.
5.4.
COGNITIVE SCIENCE
Policy makers have a crucial role to play in order to help in the clarification of the civil and
societal benefits of the technologies associated to neuro-cognitive science and to evaluate the
tools to eventually foresee their integration into the present and future social dynamics. It
would be important to build these assessment tools (e.g. environmental risk assessment
models) to take the precautionary principle into account appropriately and to ensure its
effective application in R&D and environmental policy approaches179. Policy makers can also
contribute to develop a European vision, which would be very important, especially because the
management of the potential impacts evoked could require the existence of one or several
supra-national entities to monitor and verify the technological developments and set up a
legislative and ethical framework for their application.
In addition, policy institutions will have the role of setting up the legal framework to regulate
the testing conditions and the applications of these technologies, and will contribute to building
a constructive debate on the related issues inviting different stakeholders from all the
disciplines involved (e.g. environmental scientists, social scientists, psychologists, economists,
educators, philosophers) as well as ensuring a high level of public participation.
Concern exists among the science and policy communities regarding the fact of governing in an
anticipatory manner, which implies paying attention to all points of view and relevant trends,
which could be crucial in environmental policy. The field of cognitive science and converging
technologies in general is expected to produce major confrontations with respect to values and
normative orientations and is, therefore, one of the main focuses of anticipatory governance
within contemporary science and environmental policy.
Europe could be pushed to take an anticipatory role in proposing policy solutions for this
technology field, due to the presence of an ageing population who will be more concerned by
178
Europe’s Digital Competitiveness Report, Volume 1: i2010 – Annual Information Society Report 2009,
Benchmarking i2010: Trends and main achievements. COM(2009) 390. European Commission. 2009.
179
Mali F. Bringing converging technologies closer to civil society: the role of the precautionary principle. InnovationThe European Journal of Social Science Research, 22, 1, 2009.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
87
new cognitive science applications, and to the existence of excellent scientific teams in the field.
Some barriers are specifically present in Europe, such as competition between branches within
cognitive and neurosciences, a reluctance towards interdisciplinary work, and in general, some
difficulties in the implementation of innovative environmental policies3.
Therefore, policy-makers should promote fundamental research in cognitive science to ensure
Europe’s scientific position in this field, and to verify a correct development of the related
applications in order to sustain durable applications, especially in the field of environment.
Cognitive science presents both old and new challenges for knowledge politics, in view of their
uncertain development and inherent risks, but also in view of the philosophical agenda and
ethical implications for the environment.
5.5.
CROSS CUTTING ISSUES AND CONCLUSIONS
As it can be deduced from the previous sections of the report, a number of social, technological,
economic, environmental and political drivers are at the origin of each of the technologies
presented. Therefore, based on these drivers, which basically reflect the common expectations
concerning the development of converging technologies, some common benefits can be
identified. These benefits include a larger range of available products, such as increasingly
sophisticated technological devices which can contribute to improve human health, human
performance, and participate in a more sustainable management of resources.
Converging technologies can in fact accelerate the already ongoing process of dematerialisation
and improve the efficiency of decision makers, which could evidently have beneficial effects on
the environmental field (e.g. through cognitive sciences). Globally, through, for instance, a
faster and easier retrieval of information, converging technologies can contribute to the
increase of global human knowledge, in both science and humanities.
While converging technologies are expected to yield numerous benefits, they may also have
direct adverse effects on health, environment and society. As was discussed in each of the
previous sections, some of these impacts are only suspected while others have been confirmed.
In addition to direct negative impacts on the environment, such as nanoparticle
bioaccumulation, or waste production (e.g. IT), indirect impacts can also result from the
application of converging technologies. This is the case, for instance, of cognitive science.
Indeed, through influencing social and political processes, cognitive science can have indirect
impacts on the environment. For instance, a better use of the environment (less waste, better
use of available resources, sound practices, proper evaluation of disutility and hidden costs)
partly depends on whether the decision making processes lead to environment-friendly
outcomes or not. Moreover, impacts due to an eventual misuse of these technologies cannot be
excluded. The misuse of these technologies could have dramatic impacts in some cases (e.g.
modification of soldiers’ emotions) or in the case of medical applications, if disabled people do
not wish to benefit from the cure and if social pressure exists to induce individuals to be cured.
Common patterns of uncertainty can also be recognised for the four converging technologies
discussed here. Major worries are again attributed to the unknown health, environmental and
88
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010
societal impacts. A lack of knowledge often underlies such worries. Thus, for instance, in the
case of nanotechnologies, a better development of testing and measurement methods, as well
as the development of standardised testing procedures is needed to face the uncertainties. In
particular, there is frequently a lack of results on long term exposure to potential pollutants
derived by converging technology (e.g. electromagnetic fields for IT, GMO for biotechnologies,
etc.). Such scientific uncertainties are of course reflected in legislation and socio-economic
issues. Therefore, legislation is still not adapted to the fast-evolving dimension of these
technologies and various issues concerning definitions, intellectual property, environmental
emissions, monitoring, exposure threshold and privacy emerge. These issues and uncertainties
are also partly related to public acceptance, societal economic potential, the constantly
increasing need for the improvement of life quality, and to non-acceptance, economic risks and
technological abuse. Regarding public acceptance, participatory processes should be set up.
However, participatory procedures are often only an instrument of political legitimisation, since
there is no obligation to entail such a process. The opportunity that public participation
represents in terms of collective learning and democratisation in the field of environment and
environmental health should therefore be considered. In order to be effective, the participatory
processes should be inter-linked with the most commonly performed procedure of expertise
and be flexible enough to include emerging concerned groups of the public180. Moreover, the
ethical dimension is crucial in determining the uncertainty related to the development of
converging technologies in the future. Thus their development raises new legal and
philosophical issues (Figure 5-1).
180
Kaufmann A et al. Why enrol citizens in the governance of nanotechnology? In Governing Future Technologies,
Sociology of the Sciences yearbook, 2010.
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
89
Figure 5-1: Graphical representation of cross-cutting issues common at the converging technologies
June 2010
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
90
91
European Environment Agency
Technology megatrends
June 2010