1 1 The role of nutricline depth in regulating ocean’s 2 carbon cycle. 3 4 Pedro Cermeño1, Stephanie Dutkiewicz2, Roger P. Harris3, Mick Follows2, Oscar 5 Schofield1 & Paul G. Falkowski1,4 6 7 1 8 Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, 08901, New 9 Jersey, USA. Environmental Biophysics & Molecular Ecology Program, Institute of Marine & 10 2 11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 USA 12 3 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK 13 4 Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Rutgers University, 610 Taylor 14 Road, Piscataway, 08854, New Jersey, USA. Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 77 Massachusetts Ave., 15 16 Carbon uptake by marine phytoplankton, and its export below the 17 thermocline, lowers the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the 18 upper ocean, and stimulates the diffusion of CO2 gas from the atmosphere1. 19 Conversely, precipitation of calcium carbonate by marine planktonic 20 calcifiers such as coccolithophorids increases pCO2, and promotes its 21 outgassing2,3. Over the past ~50 million years, these carbon exchange fluxes 22 between the atmosphere and the ocean have been largely controlled by the 2 1 balance between diatom and coccolithophorid abundance, contributing 2 significantly to the regulation of atmospheric pCO2 and Earth’s climate4,5. 3 Yet, the mechanisms that control this critical balance remain poorly 4 understood. The ecological distribution of these two phytoplankton 5 functional groups has been linked to their distinct abilities to compete for 6 nutrients6. Here we analyse phytoplankton community composition across 7 latitudinal gradients in the Atlantic Ocean to show that the balance between 8 diatoms and coccolithophorids is dependent upon the nutricline depth, a 9 proxy of nutrient supply to the upper mixed layer of the ocean. Coupled 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) predict a dramatic 11 reduction in the nutrient supply to the euphotic layer as a result of increased 12 ocean stratification7-9. Our findings indicate that, by shifting phytoplankton 13 community composition, this causal relationship may lead to a decreased role 14 of the biological pump in sequestering atmospheric CO2, implying a positive 15 feedback in the climate system. These results are fundamental to understand 16 the connection between upper ocean dynamics, the calcium carbonate-to- 17 organic C production ratio and atmospheric pCO2 variations on time scales 18 ranging from seasonal cycles to geological transitions. 19 Diatoms and coccolithophorids are derived from a common Rhodophyte 20 ancestor, yet the evolutionary trajectories have channelled these two 21 phytoplankton functional groups into distinct ecological strategies that have 22 significant biogeochemical implications2,3,4,6,10,11. From an evolutionary 23 perspective, they constitute an example of the classical ecological divergence of r- 24 and K-strategists6. Diatoms, as opportunists, efficiently exploit resources in 25 unstable, rarefied environments6,11,12. Coccolithophorids, possessing high affinity 26 for nutrients and low resource requirements, may grow under quiescent conditions 3 1 characteristic of stratified, open ocean waters11,12,13. The ecological distribution of 2 these two phytoplankton functional groups has been hypothesised to be linked to 3 the mechanisms that supply nutrients into the upper mixed layer of the ocean6,14. 4 Here, we use data of phytoplankton biomass and species composition along with 5 concurrent measurements of hydrographic variables from four Atlantic 6 Meridional Transects (AMTs) (Fig. 1a, see also Supplementary Table 1) in order 7 to elucidate the mechanisms that control the balance between diatoms and 8 coccolithophorids in the ocean and their role in the carbon cycle. 9 Across latitudinal gradients in the ocean, the availability of inorganic 10 nutrients exerts a major control on phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity 11 and community structure15. Typically, high latitude, temperate and upwelling 12 systems receive substantial amounts of nutrients from deep waters by wind-driven 13 vertical mixing and fluid transport along isopycnal layers. In contrast, 14 phytoplankton communities inhabiting low latitude environments, such as 15 stratified, subtropical gyres, largely rely on local recycling and diapycnal nutrient 16 fluxes to sustain their standing stocks. In general, high nutrient conditions 17 enhance diatom productivity. Coccolithophorids, instead, are thought to be more 18 widely distributed in oligotrophic ocean waters. Contrary to conventional 19 wisdom, our data analysis shows that the biomass (and biovolume) of both, 20 diatoms and coccolithophorids, increases consistently from subtropical regions to 21 temperate and upwelling systems in response to increased nutrient supply (Fig. 22 1b). Though both phytoplankton groups exhibited similar latitudinal trends in 23 biomass, our results reveal striking differences in their ranges of variation. 24 Diatom biomass increased over four orders of magnitude from low latitudes to 25 temperate and upwelling systems, whereas coccolithophorid standing stocks 26 varied by two orders of magnitude (Fig. 1b). These latitudinal variations in diatom 4 1 and coccolithophorid biomass are consistent with their patterns of diversity (Fig. 2 1c). Again, their ranges of variation were remarkably different, with the number 3 of diatom species varying two-fold more than coccolithophorids (Fig. 1c). 4 We found a striking correspondence between the coccolithophorid-to- 5 diatom (C/D) ratio and the nutricline depth (Fig. 2). Specifically, our analysis 6 indicates that, across the entire latitudinal gradient considered, coccolithophorids 7 rapidly rise to dominance relative to diatoms as the water column stratifies and 8 the nutricline deepens in the ocean. 9 When physical mixing increases, the upper mixed layer penetrates the 10 nutricline, thereby providing nutrients to the euphotic zone, and either the 11 nutricline shoals or nutrients become elevated throughout the water column (i.e., 12 zero-depth nutricline in this study). Conversely, when stratification increases, the 13 upper mixed layer is deprived of nutrients, which leads to a progressive deepening 14 of the nutricline. The depth of the nutricline may thus be used as a proxy of 15 nutrient supply into the upper mixed layer of the ocean. In fact, the primary 16 productivity of phytoplankton is negatively correlated with the depth of the 17 nutricline (Supplementary Fig. 1). This inverse relationship suggests a strong 18 coupling between the position of the nutricline in the water column, the rate of 19 nutrient supply into the euphotic layer, and the photosynthetic performance of 20 phytoplankton. 21 Different factors, such as the availability of silicic acid16, the mineral used 22 by diatoms to construct their cell walls, or the saturation state of seawater with 23 respect to calcium carbonate, a key controller of calcification17, have been put 24 forward to explain the distribution of diatoms and coccolithophorids in different 5 1 marine environments. For instance, the low silicate-to-nitrate input ratios 2 characteristic of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are thought to limit diatom 3 productivity and C drawdown in this high nutrient-low biomass ocean region16. 4 Though these factors play a role, our study, covering temperate, upwelling, 5 tropical, subtropical, and equatorial ecosystems, lends weight to the view6 that 6 upper ocean turbulence and nutrient supply dynamics exert a dominant control 7 upon the ecological selection and evolutionary success of these two 8 phytoplankton functional groups in the ocean. In line with this, a suite of 9 competition experiments in chemostats have shown that the population dynamics 10 of diatoms and coccolithophorids can be controlled by simply varying the rate of 11 nitrate supply with the C/D-ratio going up and down in response to steady-state 12 and nutrient pulsing conditions, respectively (unpublished results). Remarkably, 13 the strong linkage between the nutricline depth and phytoplankton community 14 composition reported here arises despite that, in nature, ecological systems are 15 influenced by manifold and ever changing environmental templates and complex 16 biotic interactions. 17 Our field observations illustrate very well how the balance between diatoms 18 and coccolithophorids is primarily driven by variations in diatom biomass and 19 diversity, with coccolithophorids exhibiting comparatively minor response to 20 environmental variability (Fig. 1b,c). But why do these phytoplankton groups 21 exhibit such different ranges of variability? 22 Microbial plankton are ubiquitous in the world oceans. Their global 23 biogeography is determined by local environmental factors that select for a 24 particular species based on its optimal growth potential. According to this 25 ‘universal distribution, local selection rule,’ the patterns depicted here for diatoms 6 1 and coccolithophorids reflect their divergent life histories and survival 2 strategies6,11,12,13. Diatoms, afforded by their high maximum growth rates, luxury 3 nutrient uptake, and ability to store inorganic nutrients in vacuoles, exploit 4 unstable environments where resources are supplied in excess relative to 5 biological demand6,12,14, and diatoms bloom. But adaptation to unstable 6 environments imposes severe nutritional constraints under stable conditions. 7 Prolonged stability, such as increased ocean stratification, drives plankton 8 ecosystems to operate near their carrying capacity (i.e., resource demand-to- 9 supply ratio close to unity) and, under these conditions, ecological selection 10 depends primarily on the ability of each individual species to compete for limited 11 resources18. With the exception of species that migrate vertically and take up 12 inorganic nutrients in the vicinity of the nutricline, or in symbiotic association 13 with nitrogen fixers, diatoms are at a disadvantage under strong resource 14 limitation due to their high nutritional requirements and high half saturation 15 constants12. Consequently, across contrasting marine environments, the 16 distribution of diatoms is inextricably tied to ample variations in biomass and 17 diversity (Fig. 1b,c). In contrast, coccolithophorids have lower maximum nutrient 18 uptake and growth rates12,19. Instead, they possess low half saturation constants 19 for nutrient uptake and small intracellular nutrient quotas (i.e., low nutritional 20 requirements)12. These ecophysiological features allow coccolithophorids to 21 inhabit a broad array of open oceanic environments without succumbing to 22 dramatic variations in standing stocks (Fig. 1b,c). 23 The impact of nutrient limitation on the competitive success of diatoms and 24 coccolithophorids has profound implications. Changes in the C/D-ratio may alter 25 the efficiency of the biological pump by controlling the balance between two key 26 processes, i) export of carbon into the ocean interior, and ii) release of CO2 due to 7 1 coccolithophorid calcification (i.e., ‘alkalinity pump’, each mole CaCO3 2 precipitated results in ~0.7 mole CO2 released, assuming present CO2 3 concentrations, temperature T = 12 C and salinity S = 35) (ref. 3). Consequently, 4 for a given rate of organic productivity, an increase in the C/D-ratio will lead to a 5 decreased role of the biological pump in sequestering atmospheric CO2 (refs. 3, 6 20). Our analysis shows that major changes in the C/D-ratio are linked to the 7 stabilisation-destabilisation of the water column (Fig. 2). Low latitude, stratified 8 ecosystems are dominated by coccolithophorids (C/D-ratio >> 1), and therefore 9 increased stratification bears little effect on the CaCO3-to-organic C production 10 ratio. However, in unstable environments, characterised by a significant 11 contribution of diatoms, the onset of water column stratification (and subsequent 12 nutrient depletion) causes a rapid floristic shift, increases the CaCO3-to-organic C 13 mass ratio, and reduces to a far greater extent the efficiency of the biological 14 pump (Fig. 2). 15 Current evidence and modelling work suggest that climate warming will 16 increase ocean stratification, and hence reduce nutrient exchange between the 17 ocean interior and the euphotic layer7-9. Recent reports highlight that, indeed, 18 these climate driven trends in upper ocean stratification and primary productivity 19 across the central, oligotrophic gyres are already detectable and may be occurring 20 faster than model expectations21. Yet, predicting the impact that these changes 21 may exert on the ecological functioning of marine plankton ecosystems remains 22 elusive22. In order to investigate possible shifts in the distribution of diatoms and 23 coccolithophorids caused by climate warming, we projected our empirical model 24 between the coccolithophorid-to-diatom (C/D) ratio and the nutricline depth onto 25 a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) (see 26 Supplementary information for details). This three dimensional GCM was forced 8 1 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a ‘continually 2 increasing’ CO2 scenario (880 p.p.m.v. in the year 2100). By the end of this 3 century, in this model configuration and CO2 scenario, the increased upper ocean 4 stratification reduces the supply of macronutrients to the euphotic layer, deepens 5 the nutricline and leads to a reduction by 14 % in global oceanic primary 6 productivity (Supplementary Figs. X). The projection of our empirical model 7 shows dramatic increase in the C/D-ratio across vast areas in the North Atlantic, 8 but particularly pronounced in temperate ecosystems (Fig. 3). By the year 2100, 9 the C/D-ratio in the North Atlantic temperate region increases by >80 % relative 10 to year 2000. In both hemispheres, the expansion of subtropical systems into 11 temperate, equatorial and upwelling regions causes striking shifts in ecosystems 12 characterized in the present day by a significant contribution of diatoms (Fig. 3). 13 Our prognostic analysis indicates that in a climate warming scenario, the 14 progressive stratification of oceanic systems will increase the C/D-ratio, reducing 15 the potential of marine plankton ecosystems to drawdown atmospheric CO2 (ref. 16 20). The model finds that oceanic regions subjected to the influence of the 17 expansive subtropical gyres, such as the North Atlantic drift province or tropical 18 upwelling systems, could be particularly susceptible to this biogeochemical 19 control (Fig. 3). Aside from shifting the C/D-ratio, increased ocean stratification 20 and nutrient limitation may decrease primary productivity and export fluxes7, 21 especially those associated with diatoms23. The efficiency of the biological pump 22 could further change if, as expected, the invasion of anthropogenic CO2 into the 23 ocean alters the rates of coccolithophorid calcification and/or phytoplankton C- 24 consumption (hence deviating the C/N stoichiometry from a static Redfield 25 ratio)24,25. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the biogeochemical control 26 described in this study (positive feedback on climate) could be of magnitude 9 1 comparable, but inverse, to experimentally-observed reductions in 2 coccolithophorid calcification (negative feedback) (Supplementary Fig. X). If, on 3 the contrary, coccolithophorid calcification increases, as recent reports suggest26, 4 the storage capacity of the surface ocean for CO2 would decrease, which, united 5 to the smaller ability of marine plankton ecosystems to drawdown atmospheric 6 CO2, would cause a larger reduction of the biological pump’s efficiency. 7 Margalef’s thesis that external energy input determines phytoplankton 8 community structure6 is empirically demonstrated here. Over the past ~50 million 9 years, diatoms and coccolithophorids have responded incessantly to upper ocean 10 turbulence and nutrient exchange dynamics, contributing significantly to the 11 regulation of atmospheric pCO2 and Earth’s climate4,5,14,27. Consistent with the 12 geological record and the classical ‘Mandala’ of Margalef, our results indicate 13 that the relative distribution of diatoms and coccolithophorids is strongly 14 dependent upon the mechanisms that supply nutrients into the upper mixed layer 15 of the ocean. We suggest that this mechanistic connection is majorly responsible 16 for the ecological succession and long-term regime shifts of these two 17 phytoplankton functional groups in the ocean. If so, these taxonomic shifts, and 18 their associated impacts on net air-sea CO2 exchange, would be linked 19 mechanistically to the seasonal dynamics of the upper mixed layer, interannual 20 variations in climatic forcing22,28, contemporaneous trends in anthropogenic 21 climate warming20,22,27, and the historical climate change14,27,29. 22 METHODS SUMMARY 23 Physical, chemical and biological variables were obtained from four Atlantic 24 Meridional Transect cruises (50N-50S). Micromolar concentrations of inorganic 25 nutrients were determined on fresh samples using standard techniques. For each 10 1 station, the depth of the nutricline was taken to be the first depth where nitrate 2 was detected (> 0.05 μM). Samples for identification and counting of 3 phytoplankton were analysed using an inverted microscope (Utermhol’s 4 technique). Cell numbers were expressed in terms of carbon using biovolume 5 estimates and volume to carbon conversion factors. 6 The potential of marine phytoplankton to drawdown atmospheric CO2 was 7 calculated from the C/D(biomass)-ratio considering the opposing effects of 8 photosynthesis and calcification3. We assumed a fixed CaCO3-to-organic C 9 production ratio in coccolithophorids of 1. The moles of CO2 released by mole of 10 CaCO3 precipitated, also known as ‘Revelle factor’ were calculated from 11 analytical equations3. 12 The numerical simulation of change in ocean nutrient distribution was performed 13 using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. The model incorporates 14 an explicit C cycle model with a parameterization of the biological export 15 production limited by the availability of light and nutrients. This biogeochemical 16 component follows the fate of a macro-nutrient, dissolved organic matter, 17 alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon. Simulated changes in the nutricline 18 depth enabled to prognosticate the relative distribution of diatoms and 19 coccolithophorids over this century using our empirical relationships. 20 21 1. Volk, T. & Hoffert, M. I. in The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO2: 22 Natural Variations Archean to Present (eds Sundquist, E. T. & Broecker, W. 23 S.) 99–110 (Am. Geophys. Union, Washington DC, 1985). 11 1 2. 2 3 Holligan, P. M. & Robertson, J. E. Significance of ocean carbonate budgets for the global carbon cycle. Glob. Change Biol. 2, 85–95 (1996). 3. Frankignoulle, M., Canon, C. Gattuso, J-P. Marine calcification as a source 4 of carbon dioxide: Positive feedback of increasing atmospheric CO2. Limnol. 5 Oceanog. 39, 458– (1994). 6 4. 7 8 Science 305, 354–360 (2004). 5. 9 10 6. 7. 17 Bopp, L. et al. Potential impact of climate change on marine export production. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 81– (2001). 8. 15 16 Margalef, R. Life forms of phytoplankton as survival alternatives in an unstable environment. Oceanologica Acta 1, 493–509 (1978). 13 14 Archer, D. & Maier-Reimer. Effect of deep-sea sedimentary calcite preservation on atmospheric CO2 concentration. Nature 367, 260-264 (1994). 11 12 Falkowski, P. G., et al. The evolution of modern eukaryotic phytoplankton. Boyd, P. W. & Doney, S. C. Modelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1806– (2002). 9. Sarmiento, J. L. et al. Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 18, GB3003 (2004). 18 10. Smetacek, V. Diatoms and the ocean carbon cycle. Protist 150, 25–32 (1999). 19 11. Reynolds, C. S. Ecology of phytoplankton. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 20 21 Cambridge, 2006). 12. Litchman, E., Klausmeier, C. A., Schofield, O., Falkowski, P. G. The role of 22 functional traits and trade-offs in structuring phytoplankton communities: 23 scaling from cellular to ecosystem level. Ecol. Lett. 10, 1170–1181 (2007). 12 1 13. Iglesias-Rodríguez M. D., et al. Representing key phytoplankton functional 2 groups in ocean carbon cycle models: Coccolithophorids. Glob. Biogeochem. 3 Cycles 16, GB001454 (2002). 4 14. Tozzi, S., Schofield, O., Falkowski, P. G. Historical climate change and 5 ocean turbulence as selective agents for two key phytoplankton functional 6 groups Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 274, 123–132 (2004). 7 15. Longhurst, A. R., Sathyendranath, S., Platt, T. & Caverhill, C. An estimate of 8 global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. J. 9 Plank. Res. 17, 1245–1271 (1995). 10 11 12 13 16. Dugdale R. C. & Wilkerson F. P. Silicate regulation of new production in the equatorial Pacific upwelling. Nature 391, 270–273 (1998). 17. Tyrrell, T. Calcium carbonate cycling in future oceans and its influence on future climates. J. Plank. Res. 30(2), 141–156 (2008). 14 18. Tilman, D., Kilham, S. S. & Kilham, P. Phytoplankton community ecology: 15 the role of limiting nutrients. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Sys. 13, 349–372 (1982). 16 19. Buithenius, E. T., Pangerc, T., Franklin, D. J., LeQuere, C. & Malin, G. 17 Growth rates of six coccolithophorid strains as a function of temperature. 18 Limnol. Oceanogr. 53, 1181–1185 (2008). 19 20. Denman, K., Hofmann, U. & Marchant, H. in Climate change 1995, The 20 science of climate change (eds Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., 21 Callander, B. A., Harris, N, Kattenberg, A. & Maskell, K) (Cambridge Univ. 22 Press., 1996). 23 24 21. Polovina J. J., Howell, E. A., & Abecassis, M. Ocean's least productive waters are expanding. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03618 (2008). 13 1 22. Boyd, P. W. & Doney, S. C. in Ocean Biogoechemistry, The Role of the 2 Ocean Carbon Cycle in Global Change (ed. Fasham, M. J. R.) (Springer- 3 Verlag, Berlin, 2003). 4 23. Bopp, L., Amount, O., Cadule, P., Alvain, S. & Gehlen, M. Response of 5 diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: a global 6 model study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L19606 (2005). 7 24. Zondervan, I. Zeebe, R. E., Rost, B. & Riebesell, U. Decreasing marine 8 biogenic calcification: a negative feedback on rising atmospheric pCO2. 9 Global Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 507-516 (2001). 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25. Riebesell, U. et al. Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean. Nature 450, 545–548 (2007). 26. Iglesias-Rodríguez M. D., et al. Phytoplankton calcification in a High-CO2 world. Science 320, 336–340 (2008). 27. Falkowski, P. J. & Oliver, M. J. Mix and match: how climate selects phytoplankton. Nature Rev. Microbiol. 5, 813–819 (2007). 28. Antia, A. et al. Basin-wide particulate carbon flux in the Atlantic Ocean: 17 Regional export patterns and potential for atmospheric CO2 sequestration. 18 Glob.. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 845-862 (2001). 19 20 29. Archer, D. Winguth, A., Lea, D. & Mahowald, N. What caused the glacial/interglacial pCO2 cycles? Revs. Geophys. 38, 159-189 (2000). 21 22 Supplementary Information is linked to the online version of the paper at 23 www.nature.com/nature. 14 1 Acknowledgements We thank all those who participated in the collection of data, in particular D. 2 Harbour for microscopy analyses, and S. Costas, A. Kahl, E. Marañón and Y. Rosenthal for 3 discussion and comments on the manuscript. E. M. provided access to his primary productivity 4 data. Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) data collection was supported by the UK Natural 5 Environmental Research Council through the AMT consortium (NER/O/S/2001/00680). P.C. was 6 supported by Marie Curie Outgoing International Fellowship from the European Union. 7 Author Contributions P.C., O.S. & P.G.F. designed the research. R.P.H. managed the 8 phytoplankton database. P.C. conducted the analysis of phytoplankton data. S.D. & M.F. 9 performed the modelling section. P.C. wrote the paper. 10 Author Information Reprints and permissions information is available at 11 www.nature.com/reprints. The authors declare no competing financial interests. Correspondence 12 and requests for materials should be addressed to P.C. (pedro@marine.rutgers.edu) or P.G.F 13 (falko@marine.rutgers.edu). 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 15 1 Figure Legends 2 Figure 1. Phytoplankton distribution in the Atlantic Ocean. a, AMT cruises 3 track overlain on an annual climatology of chlorophyll showing high values 4 where surface nutrients are elevated. b, Latitudinal distribution of biomass 5 of diatoms (blue) and coccolithophorids (red). c, as b but for number of 6 species. Solid lines in panels b and c are biomass and number of species 7 averaged each 5 of latitude. Dashed lines are the range of data values. 8 Figure 2. Nutricline depth controls the coccolithophorid-to-diatom (C/D) 9 ratio. Data points are 5 zonal averages of C/D-ratio and nutricline depth 10 from four Atlantic latitudinal transects (solid circles) and two coastal 11 stations (open circles, see supplementary information). The left Y-axis is 12 represented on a log-scale in order to highlight the rapid shift from diatom 13 to coccolithophorid dominance in response to the onset of water column 14 stratification. Colour lines are the least square linear regression models: 15 [C/D (biomass) = 0.14 + 0.14 * ND, r2 = 0.78, p < 0.0001], and [C/D 16 (diversity) = 0.55 + 0.03 * ND, r2 = 0.83, p < 0.0001]. Changes (%) in the 17 biological potential for atmospheric CO2 sequestration were estimated 18 from the model equation considering the opposing effects of 19 photosynthesis and calcification (thick solid line, see Supplementary 20 information for details). Confidence intervals were obtained from the range 21 of data values (as shown in Fig. 1b, thin solid lines). Note that major 22 changes are associated with the stabilisation/destabilisation of water 23 column. Reduction in pump’s efficiency considering changes in the 24 buffering capacity of the ocean’s carbonate system in a future, high CO2 25 scenario was also displayed (dashed line, see Supplementary 26 information). 16 1 Figure 3. Projected changes in the distribution of diatoms and 2 coccolithophorids over this century. a, Coccolithophorid to diatom (C/D) 3 biomass ratio in year 2000. b, as a but for 2100 (assuming IPCC IS29 CO2 4 ‘continually increasing’ scenario). 5 6 17 1 a 2 b c 3 4 5 6 Figure 1. 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Figure 2. 19 Figure 3.