DRAFT
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in
Uttaranchal State, India
Ulka Kelkar, Kapil Kumar Narula, Ved Prakash Sharma, and Usha Chandna
TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India
Email: ulkak@teri.res.in
Abstract. This research project aimed to use a participatory approach to investigate
vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar
watershed. Highly water stressed micro watersheds were identified by modeling surface
runoff, soil moisture development, lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge. Communitylevel interactions in Lakhwar and Chhotau villages revealed the general perception that
temperature has increased and rainfall has become more erratic over the last 10-15 years,
which was attributed to deforestation and forest fires. In response to changing economic
incentives, cropping pattern has changed from a mix of crops for self-consumption to
predominantly maize, but there is little profit from agriculture due to the fragmentation of
landholdings in the hills, lack of labour due to migration to cities, and absence of irrigation
facilities. While Chhotau lacks even basic amenities, in Lakhwar higher caste households
have been able to benefit from the government’s employment reservation policies for
tribals, and remittance incomes enable villagers to tide over a series of poor crop years.
While acutely feeling the need for water harvesting interventions, neither community sees
agriculture as a viable livelihood.
Keywords: climate change, water stress, agriculture
Background
The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) points out that the greatest vulnerability to climate change will be in
unmanaged or unsustainably managed water systems that are currently water
stressed. It also states with a high level of confidence that freshwater availability is
expected to be highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change. In particular, surface
run-off is expected to decrease drastically in arid and semi-arid India under the
projected climate change scenarios. Climate change is likely to change the volume
as well as temporal distribution of streamflows (IPCC 2001).
India receives an average annual precipitation of about 4000 billion cubic metres
(BCM). The average flow in the river systems of the country is about 1880 BCM.
Though there is abundant water, only a small proportion of it is actually available for
use in the form of surface and underground running water. Surface water and ground
water resources, which can be utilized, are estimated at about 690 BCM and 432
BCM respectively (CWC 1998). As a result of wide fluctuations in the availability
of water, spatially and temporally, water shortage is virtually an annual feature in
several parts of the country. More than 80% of water resources in India is being
utilised for agricultural purposes (Pachauri and Batra 2001). Both surface and
ground water resources are tapped for this purpose. Moreover, acceleration in the
rate of consumption due to an increasing population and changing lifestyles is a
cause for concern for effective sustainable management and utilisation of this
resource. According to United Nations projections, India is estimated to experience
water stress by 2025, and is likely to cross the 'water scarce' benchmark by the year
2050 under the high growth scenario. Water stress and scarcity are defined as
situations where per capita annual water availability is less than 1700 m3 and 1000
m3 respectively.
Specifically for Lakhwar sub-basin, part of the Upper Yamuna sub-basin in
Uttaranchal state, Narula and Bhadwal (2003) found that about 1500 km2 of the
4000 km2 sub-basin receives an annual runoff of less than 1250 mm, and is hence
highly sensitive to increased water stress due to climate change. A decrease of 20%
to 30% in total flows on account of climate change alone was estimated, indicating
that the amount of water available for usage in future would be reduced
substantially. Under the HadRM2 scenario, there is a net decrease in the volume of
rainfall as well as the intensity of rainfall, leading to decrease in the total availability
of water in the region including groundwater recharge. The region is also likely to
experience monsoon rainfall which becomes less intense and more sporadic (Figure
1).
Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over two time periods
180
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Light intensity rainfall that get
lost in satisfying soil moisture
needs as well as in meeting
ET demands increase in
number
Frequency (in days)
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generate runoff reduce in
number
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> 200 150- 140- 130- 120- 110- 100- 90- 80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20 5-10
200 150 140 130 120 110 100
1-5
Rainfall intensity
July (2041-60)
July (1961-98)
2
August (1961-98)
August (2041-60)
<1 0.1
Figure 1. Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over 1961-98 and 2041-60
Source: Narula and Bhadwal (2003)
The potential impacts could include the following.
 Reduced ground water availability - Under the changed climate scenario, since
the total water availability will go down by about 30%, the ground water
recharge will also get reduced, translating into a fall in ground water tables. This
will also lead to increase in the extraction costs because higher capacity
equipment has to be installed to maintain yields.
 Reduced surface water availability – Decrease in total run off levels would
reduce the availability of drinking water for humans and livestock. This would
specifically have seasonal patterns worth studying. In conjunction with reduced
ground water availability, this could lead to increased conflicts over water, and
would certainly increase the burden of water collection on women.
 Declining crop yields - Since the changes in the rainfall pattern will have a direct
impact on the ground water recharge volumes, intensity of irrigation in the
region will get affected. Crops like sugarcane, rice, and wheat that are waterintensive and are grown extensively in the region will be most severely affected.
Restrictions in growth of sugarcane and rice can occur due to changes in mean
temperatures and rainfall patterns (Venkataraman and Krishnan 1992). The start
of the monsoon season is an important factor in rice production. In some cases,
the sowing and harvesting time of these crops may also have to be shifted as
temperatures and humidity levels vary and any change in these conditions would
affect the growth of these crops and reduce yields.
 Reduced water quality - Areas located in the north and north-east parts of the
sub-basin are more vulnerable to climate change impacts since total water
availability is already less compared to other regions of the sub-basin. Such areas
are also susceptible to pollution as economic activities grow and water flows
decline, which would have significant health impacts.
Hence, this study aimed to assess vulnerability and adaptive capacity of households
engaged in agriculture in Lakhwar sub-basin to climate variability and water stress.
Recognizing that vulnerability needs to be understood at the local level, and that
households engaged in agriculture employ a variety of measures in response to
changing stresses and incentives, the study complemented watershed modeling with
a participatory approach to gain insights through mutual learning and exchange with
the affected communities. It attempted to address the following specific research
questions:
1. What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current
climatic variability and water stress?
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2. Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would these responses
help households adapt in the long run?
3. What are the possible scenarios of interventions (at different levels - policy,
institutional, technological, community, individual) that can help build adaptive
capacity?
Approach and methodology
This study adopted a place-specific approach to understand vulnerability and
adaptive capacity through mutual learning and exchange with the affected
communities. While choosing a specific watershed as the case study area, the
stresses acting on the exposure unit were studied as part of a larger context, with
external forces acting as both constraints to and opportunities for coping responses.
The working definition of vulnerability adopted for this study is that defined by
Turner et al (2003) as the degree to which a system, subsystem, or system
component is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, either a
perturbation or stress. Various factors shape the differences in vulnerability of
individuals or groups: entitlements, personal heterogeneity, variations in social
obligations, environmental location, livelihood diversification strategies, support
networks, empowerment or power relations, and access to knowledge, information,
and technology (Noronha 2003). A combination of factors may increase
vulnerability or enhance resilience to stresses (i.e. the capacity to cope or respond to
stress in different ways). Within the context of climate studies, the most vulnerable
are considered to be those who are most exposed to perturbations, who possess a
limited capacity for adaptation, and who are least resilient to recovery (Bohle et al
1994).
With this approach the study combined watershed modeling with a participatory
approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and
water stress in the Lakhwar watershed. Water balance modeling for Lakhwar
watershed was carried out using SWAT and MODFLOW models. Areas that would
be most affected due to changes in flows and water stresses were identified, and two
villages were selected for community-level interactions. Group discussions were
held in each village to elicit community perceptions about climatic changes and
learn about factors impacting agricultural livelihoods over time. Semi-structured
interviews were conducted with different types of households to elicit information
on their agricultural practices and non-agricultural responses in the face of water
scarcity. The results of the watershed modelling exercise were shared with the
community to stimulate brainstorming on a possible pool of options that would
enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable households in the long run. A timeline
was developed by the community of key developments in the village, including the
changing water stress situation, extending into future scenarios for water stress and
possible interventions.
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Description of study area
The Yamuna catchment flows through the Punjab-Kumaon Himalayas from Shimla
in the north-west to Mussoorie in the south-east. The river rises from the Yamunotri
springs in the Himalayas. After flowing in the south-westerly direction for about 120
kms, the Yamuna is joined by its principal tributary, the Tons, near Dakpathar. The
Lakhwar sub-basin constitutes the Himayalan reach of the Upper Yamuna basin and
stretches up to the downstream of the Dehra Dun district. This catchment constitutes
about 4000 km2, out of the total catchment area of 12000 km2, which is till Tajewala
(Figure 2). In the upper reach, the Yamuna has a steep bed slope of 1/16 in the first
30 kms and flattens out with a bed slope of 1/500 at Tajewala. The tributaries are
flatter than the main river; the Tons being the flattest. Since in the upper catchment,
the river courses are well defined and confined between high banks, they present no
flood problem.
Rainfall spells in the Yamuna basin are generally associated with monsoon or late
monsoon depressions either from the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea. Normally,
monsoon sets in over the upper catchment by about the end of the third week of June
and withdraws by about the middle or third week of September. Late-monsoon
depressions may form till the end of September or even up to the middle of October.
The Yamuna catchment receives around 120 cm of rainfall throughout the year, of
which 75% is received during the monsoon months. Most of the annual rainfall is in
the months of July and August.
Figure 2. Location of Lakhwar watershed within Upper Yamuna basin
SHI
SHIMLA
UTTARKASHI
#
Simla
#
2
1
Solan
3
#
SOLAN
#
#
Yashwant Nagar
Chakrata
4
##
#
SIRMAUR
Dadahu
#
DEHRADUN
#
5
Koti
#
8
Lakhwar
YAMUNA NAGAR
Tajewala
5
#
Damta
6
##
7
#
Outlets
#
Linking stream added Outlet
Streams
Subbasins
Digitized streams
Yamnotri
#
##
9
#
#
TEHRI GRAHWAL
Mussorrie
Dehradun
0
20
40 Kilometers
Dehra Dun is the state capital of the north Indian state of Uttaranchal. Located at an
altitude of 640 m above sea level, the district is spread over 3088 km2, nestled
among mountain ranges. The mountain slopes in the north and south of the valley
are covered with pure and mixed forests dominated by sal (Shorea robusta), which
covers 51% - 58% of the valley. However, the flat areas in the central part of the
valley are under different land-use practices: irrigated and cultivated agriculture1,
agroforestry plantations, old tea gardens, orchards, urbanized areas, and riverine
scrublands.
Dehradun district has two sub-divisions – Dehradun and Chakrata. The lower half of
Chakrata is called Jaunsar and the upper half (at higher elevation) is called Bawar.
This is difficult terrain, poorly connected by transportation facilities, and generally
neglected when Uttaranchal was part of the large Uttar Pradesh state. The
inhabitants of Jaunsar-Bawar claim descent from the Pandavas of the Mahabharata,
and traditionally practiced polyandry2.
Cultivation is done mainly in narrow patches of terraced fields cut into the hill
slopes. About half of all landholdings are less than 0.5 hectares in size, and 70% are
less than a hectare. Tenant farming and sharecropping are not common. As pointed
out by Sati (2005), geography and culture (way of life in the hills) have created a
relatively equitable, if impoverished, land distribution in Uttaranchal.
The total water requirement for Uttaranchal state (including human consumption,
animal consumption, agriculture, and industry) is estimated as only 3% of the annual
precipitation received. However, rainfall is available for only 100 days, and flows
out swiftly from the steep slopes constituting the major part of the state. The
cultivable command area (excluding forestland, populated land, and non-irrigable
land) of the state is 1.14 million ha, of which 0.55 million ha remains unirrigated
and falls primarily in the hilly areas of the state. In the hill districts of Uttaranchal,
irrigated area is merely 14%, compared with 46% in the foothills and plains. The
1 North India has two agricultural seasons. Rabi is the winter season and the rabi crop is harvested
in April. Kharif coincides with the monsoon or the rainy season. Wheat is an important rabo
crop while paddy is an important kharif ccrop.
2 Majumdar (1962) termed the practice of fraternal polyandry with multiple wives as
“polygynandry”.
6
draft water policy for Uttaranchal states that “It is a paradox that the local people of
the state and their lands are facing shortage of water for domestic consumptive uses
in the remaining period of the year.”
Uttaranchal (and its neighbouring state Himachal Pradesh) have had a tradition of
water harvesting (Table 1). Water for household use was obtained from springs,
mountain streams, or man-made rainwater harvesting structures. Open ponds and
tanks provided water for animals, irrigation, and washing. For human consumption,
water was tapped from underground seepages (in baoris / naulas) or springs (dharas).
Terrace fields were irrigated by diverting water (using boulders and branches) from
nearby mountain streams through small gravity flow channels known as guhls.
Typically a farmer floods his field and then removes a stone plug at the outside edge
of the field so that water can flow to the next terrace below. Some channels also
provide hydropower for gharats (water mills). All these structures were usually
common property resources, which were largely owned, used, and maintained by
local communities. However, an increasing number of guhls have been taken over
by state government agencies, and fallen into disrepair due to lack of responsibility
(PSI 2003).
Table 1. Traditional water harvesting structures in central western Himalayas
Structure
Chaal / khal / chuptyaula
Naula / baori
Dhara
Guhl
Hauzi
Gharat
Chappri / talaai / talaab
Baori / khatri
Naun
Chharedu / panihar / nahun
Kuhl
Gharat
Use
Animal consumption
Domestic water use
Drinking water, occasionally irrigation form
large dharas
Irrigation and operating gharats (watermills)
Irrigation
Milling
Water for livestock and irrigation
Domestic water use
Bathing and washing clothes
Bathing and drinking water
Irrigation and operating gharats
Milling
State
Uttaranchal
Uttaranchal
Uttaranchal
Uttaranchal
Uttaranchal
Uttaranchal
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Source: PSI (2003)
The mid-Himalayan ranges are dry, with small streams fed by winter snow.
Agriculture in Jaunsar-Bawar is characterized by natural irrigation i.e. no lift
irrigation, no tubewells/ borewells, only guhls. Sati (2005) cites a 1996 study which
found that in about half of Uttaranchal’s villages, springs had either ceased to yield
water, or did so only during rainy season, calling this the “too little – too much
syndrome”. There has been a decrease in spring discharge ranging from 25 to 75%,
and this has resulted in a considerable decrease in water flow; estimated to be
around 30 to 40% in the last decade or two.
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Against this background, the draft water policy for the state notes that production of
food grains has increased from around 0.5 million tonnes in the 1950s to about 1.79
million tonnes in 1999/2000, but stipulates that this will have to be raised to around
2.5 million tonnes by the year 2025.
Water balance modeling for Lakhwar watershed
Two widely used models viz. SWAT3 and MODFLOW4 were used to evaluate
water resources for the Lakhwar watershed. While SWAT models the land and water
phase of the hydrological cycle that includes surface runoff, soil moisture
development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge or baseflows (Box 1),
MODFLOW models the groundwater movement.
Box 1. Brief description of SWAT model
SWAT is a continuous time model that operates on a daily time step at basin scale.
The objective of such a model is to predict the long-term impacts in watersheds/
river basins of management and also timing of agricultural practices within a year
(i.e., crop rotations, planting and harvest dates, irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticide
application rates and timing). It can be used to simulate at the basin scale water and
nutrients cycle in landscapes whose dominant land use is agriculture. SWAT uses a
two-level dissagregation scheme; a preliminary sub-basin identification is carried
out based on topographic criteria, followed by further discretization using land use
and soil type considerations. The physical properties inside each subbasin are then
aggregated with no spatial significance.
The time step for the simulation can be daily, monthly or yearly, which qualify the
model for long-term simulations. The hydrologic cycle as simulated by SWAT is
based on the following water balance equation.
t
SWt = SWo +  (Rday – Qsurf – Ea – Wseep – Qgw)
i=1
where SWt is the final soil water content (mm H2O), SW0 is the initial soil water
content on day i (mm H2O), t is the time (days), Rday is the amount of precipitation
on day i (mm H2O), Qsurf is the amount of surface runoff on day i (mm H2O), Ea is
the amount of evapotranspiration on day i (mm H2O), Wseep is the amount of water
entering the vadose zone from the soil profile on day i (mm H2O), and Qgw is the
3 Neitsch S L, Arnold J G, Kiniry J R, Williams J R. 2001. Soil and Water Assessment Tool –
Theoretical Documentation - Version 2000. Blackland Research Center – Agricultural Research
Service, Texas, USA.
4 McDonald M G and Harbaugh A W. A Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow
Model.
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amount of return flow on day i (mm H2O). The subdivision of the watershed enables
the model to reflect differences in evapotranspiration for various crops and soils.
Runoff is predicted separately for each HRU and routed to obtain the total runoff for
the watershed.
In SWAT model, the approach followed is that as precipitation descends, it may be
intercepted and held in the vegetation canopy or fall to the soil surface. Water on the
soil surface will infiltrate into the soil profile or flow overland as runoff. Runoff
moves relatively quickly towards a stream channel and contributes to short-term
stream response. Infiltrated water may be held in the soil and later evapotranspired
or it may slowly make its way to the surface-water system via underground paths.
Data requirements and synthesis
SWAT being a spatial model, is dependent on spatial data sets. The climatic
variables required by SWAT consist of daily precipitation, maximum/minimum air
temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity. The model allows
values for daily precipitation, maximum/minimum air temperatures, solar radiation,
wind speed and relative humidity to be input from records of observed data or
generated during the simulation.
Data requirement for the watershed modelling can be categorised into two types.
1. Databases such as climate data with regard to temperature, precipitation and
humidity; river gauge data for river flow; groundwater data, socio-economic
data, census data
2. Maps such as landuse, soil, elevation (topography), hydrogeology, stream
network, slope, aspect, and village boundary
The input data required for the model analysis was area differentiated for the entire
basin using a working scale of 1:50000. The data base was built from topical
climatic, pedological, geological, topographical, hydrological and demographic data
(maps) as listed in Table 2, which were supplied by various Central and State
government bodies. Point-related data measured at runoff gauges in order to verify
the model results with reference to sub-areas of the basin were made available by the
Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water Resources, and by institutions of the
state agricultural boards bordering on the river basin. The modelling, analysis and
cartographic representation were carried out embedded in the Arc/Info and
ARCVIEW geographic information system (GIS). Spatial analyst and 3D analyst
were used in addition to the above.
Table 2 Input data sets of the water-balance models for the river basin
Subject area
Basic data
Data basis
Boundaries of the river basin administrative boundaries
flowing waters, lakes, village boundary and name
9
Source
Survey of India
Central Pollution Control Board
Climatic data
Soil-physical data
Land use data
Hydrogeological data
Topographical data
Gauge data
Daily precipitation, daily temperatures (mean, minimum and
maximum), Mean annual precipitation in the hydrological
winter months; mean annual precipitation in the hydrological
summer months; mean annual potential evaporation
Soil characteristics (% silt, sand and clay)Effective root
penetration depth useful field capacity capillary elevation
influence on groundwater or perched aquifer
Ground cover
Groundwater-bearing lithologic units
Mean slope; mean slope exposure
MQ, MNQ
Indian Meteorological Department
National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use
Planning
SoI, Satellite Imageries, State Agricultural Board
Geological Survey of India (GSI)
SoI
Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water
Resources, Government of India
The following digital maps and datasets were prepared for the watershed.
1. Landuse/ land cover map
2. Topography map
3. Village map
4. Soil map
5. Hydrogeology map
6. Drainage/ streams map
7. Climate data sets – daily rainfall, daily minimum and maximum temperature,
humidity
8. Crop data sets
9. Irrigation data
10. Groundwater level data – depth to water table (mean sea level)
11. Strata charts – lithologs/ borelogs
12. Village level socio-economic data and census data sets
Appendix 1 presents the input maps and necessary data sets for model applications.
Following data synthesis SWAT and MODFLOW models were applied in an
integrated manner to study the land and water phase of the hydrologic cycle and
hence arrive at the water balance of the watershed and micro watersheds including
groundwater flow. Net water balance was achieved through an application of these
spatial models. Total runoff was modeled as a function of the regional interaction of
the site conditions, climate, soil, geology, topography and land use. The total runoff
was separated into the direct runoff (interflow and surface runoff) and groundwater
runoff (base flow), depending on certain site conditions (for example, geology,
depth of groundwater table). In this way the regional dominant runoff components
were identified. The model results were validated by comparing the calculated
runoff values with measured data from sub-basins for groundwater and surface water
flows.
Limitations
The demand side element could not be incorporated into this model due to the lack
of spatial data on water use. The relevant water departments of the Uttaranchal
10
Government do not measure or estimate water use or demand, but only use
minimum per capita requirements or benchmarks for planning purposes. The most
detailed database available was the minor irrigation census, but this only gives the
number of schemes, without information on where the water is being drawn from.
Instead, using GIS tools and less detailed data available, digital maps and datasets
were prepared for the watershed for irrigation and for landuse (including
orchards/pastures and rainfed cultivation of winter wheat).
Output and results
The hydrological model results for the Lakhwar watershed show that the average
daily surface runoff (water yield) is very high. The peak flows are in the range of
600 to > 1000 cumecs. The average daily flows are in the range of 80 – 120 cumecs.
For this particular watershed the Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water
Resources, Government of India, has maintained a flow monitoring station and
hence the observed and model simulated flows could be compared. As seen in
Figure 3 the simulated results are in good agreement with the observed flows.
Date
simulated
observed
Figure 3 Daily runoff (in cumecs) for Lakawar watershed – simulated and observed runoffs
Based on the above outcome the watershed was classified in terms of water stress
measured on a relative scale of micro watersheds within the Lakhwar watershed.
Figure 4 shows the distribution of micro watersheds based on the relative water
stress. As can be seen in the figure micro watershed 1 followed by 2 are much more
water stressed when compared to other micro watersheds.
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1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
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Flow (cumecs)
Flows at Lakhwar - calibrated
Figure 4. Distribution of micro watersheds based on relative water stress
The overall water balance of the watershed is presented in table 3 which shows that
surface runoff is a major component of the hydrological cycle for these micro
watersheds.
Table 3 Water balance of Lakhwar watershed
Period of simulation
Average precipitation (mm)
Actual evapotranspiration loss (mm)
Recharge (mm)
Surface runoff (mm)
Water balance of Lakawar
5 years
1848
663
144
1041
As % of precipitation
36%
8%
56%
Values (mm)
A comparative analysis was done for four major variables in the SWAT model:
1. Precipitation (mm) – PRECIP,
2. Water yield (mm) that translates into runoff - WYLD
3. Groundwater recharge (mm) – PERC
4. Actual evaporation loss (mm) - ET
Figure 5 shows that water yield that translates into runoff is the most important
component for this watershed.
1000.000
950.000
900.000
850.000
800.000
750.000
700.000
650.000
600.000
550.000
500.000
450.000
400.000
350.000
300.000
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Figure 5. Comparative analysis of major components of water balance
This has important implications for the nature of interventions that could be
beneficial for this watershed. Suitable interventions could include:
 capturing surface runoff through catchment level rainwater harvesting
and local check dams
 enhancing gravity schemes for water supply to villages
 desilting and management of local ponds at the village level
The modelling results were shared with a local NGO partner, the Society for
Motivational Training and Action (SMTA), to ground-truth the analysis and to
identify villages in the stressed areas. It was learnt that while Area 1 in Figure 4 is
the most water stressed, a dam is being constructed there. Hence, one village in Area
1 and another in Area 2 were considered for the field case studies.
A tale of two villages: preliminary observations from case studies
Amartya Sen’s entitlements and capabilities approach gives emphasis to differential
access, or “entitlement” to resources, as a determinant of household / individual
vulnerability. To explore factors influencing vulnerability of agricultural households
over time, and coping measures employed by different types of households, case
studies were carried out in two villages – viz. Lakhwar in Area 1, which is
characterized by purely rainfed farming, and Chhotau in Area 2, which has a mix of
irrigated and rainfed farming. This section reports insights gained through group
discussions and individual interviews in the two villages.
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Lakhwar and Chhotau: socio-economic profiles
Lakhwar is a dense cluster of villages comprising Lakhwar, Dhanpau, Bisnau,
Mistau, Jakhnau, and Sawda, about 60 km from Dehradun. The total cultivated and
uncultivated area of Lakhwar village specifically is 72 ha. The patwari had a record
of 47 households (5 with medium landholdings, 15 with small landholdings, and 27
with marginal landholdings), of which we surveyed 30 (5 with medium land
holdings, 9 with small land holdings, and 16 with marginal land holdings). Many of
the farmers lost irrigated fields during the construction of the Lakhwar dam5, and
received compensation from the government.
Chhotau village is about 100 km from Dehradun and 10 km from Chakrata town,
and is at a height of about 1500 metres above mean sea level. The total number of
households is 38, of which we interviewed 32. Chhotau can be accessed only by a
1.5 km steep downhill walk. It lacks basic amenities such as electricity, drinking
water, toilets, health centre, road connectivity, telephones, and education beyond the
primary school level. Houses are made of mud, stone, and wood, and poor indoor air
quality due to the use of traditional cookstoves is visible. Only one house in the
village has a toilet. The nearest primary health care centre is in Chakrata and the
nearest hospital is in Dehradun. After the fifth standard, students have to 6-7 km by
foot to Puroli or Nagau. There is no cooperative society in the village.
Perhaps the defining trend for this region is the massive migration to cities. The
entire Jaunsar-Bawar area was notified as a tribal area in 1968, making its
inhabitants eligible for the Government’s promotional schemes for tribals. However,
Jaunsari society is caste stratified, with Brahmin and Rajput families holding most
of the land (Figure 6). It is the upper caste Brahmin and Rajput “tribals” who have
gained the most from these policies, while the lower caste Harijans have been unable
to get either education or employment benefits and continue to live in marginalized
and even ghettoized conditions.
Brahman,
0.000
Harijan, 5.331
Hindu, 0.951
Vaishya,
0.800
Harijan, 8.774
Rajput,
68.692
Joshi,
19.6182
5 Work on Lakhwar dam on the Yamuna river started in 1976, but was halted due to the high cost
of production.
14
(a) Lakhwar village
Average landholding size 2.5 ha
(b) Chhotau village
Average landholding size 0.8 ha
Figure 6. Distribution of landholdings (ha) by caste in (a) Lakhwar and (b) Chhotau villages
As mentioned before, these communities have traditionally had a polyandrous
patriarchal system, but the practice has declined over time. The generally trend
towards break-up of the joint family system is observed here also, and has impacted
landholdings, particularly the irrigated patches of fields. The average household size
was found to be 7.5 in Lakhwar and 8.3 in Chhotau.
Basu (1993) estimated that Jaunsar-Bawar has a literacy rate of 45.79 per cent for
men and 15.26 per cent for women. While many households interviewed in Lakhwar
and Chhotau had members who had bachelor’s or even master’s degrees, these were
all from upper caste families. No Harijan had a college education; only 1 person of
this caste in each village had actually completed high school, while the majority
dropped out at the primary and middle school levels.
Climate variability and water stress: community perceptions
Almost all the households interviewed in the two villages felt that rainfall has
declined in quantity and that they can no longer rely on the timely onset of the
monsoon (Table 4).
Table 4. Community perceptions about rainfall variability
% of respondents
Rainfall has declined over the last 10-15 years
Onset of rainfall has become late
Onset of rainfall has become erratic
Lakhwar
90 %
65 %
32 %
Chhotau
87.5 %
25 %
69 %
There seems to have been a decrease in scattered light rainfall useful for percolation,
and an increase in intense rainfall which destroys crops and runs off. Some of the
indicators mentioned by Lakhwar community members were:
 Earlier one could not see the stars throughout the month of shravana
(July/August).
 A few days ago temperature touched 38ºC which was unthinkable earlier.
Fans were never needed till 2-3 years ago.
 Mosquitoes have become a problem in the last 10 years, although this is not
just because of temperature rise but also due to poor drainage and sanitation.
 It used to rain a lot when I came to the village as a young bride. These days
the sunshine has more heat.
 Around 1984, rainfall would come in the second week of May but now it
tends to be delayed by a month.
15



Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the rains have
been coming late every year
We remember lush yields when we would get tired harvesting the crop. Now
it does not rain on time – what will grow in the fields?
Groundwater has been declining. There is acute lack of water in streams in
the lean season.
In Chhotau the more obvious indicator was the decline in snowfall.
 When we were children the December snow would stay on the roofs till
March, forming layers of frost and ice.
 During the annual fair in April in Chakrata Bazaar, the military would have
to push the snow to the sides of the road. Now you don’t find snow even on
Deoban (at a higher elevation).
 But for many years there has been no snowfall in December. There is late
snow in January-February when temperatures are already rising> it melts
away and does not feed into the streams.
 As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the livestock from
the hilly slopes, to save them from being drowned. Now the streams are all
dry.
 35-40 years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when livestock were
kept in the house and men would stay indoors and play cards. The snow was
like manure – knee deep snow that covered the ground and retained soil
moisture underneath.
 It should rain in vaisakha – jyaishtha (i.e. April/May) but the rains are
delayed by two months. This year the gagli and ginger crop have all dried up
because of poor monsoon rain, otherwise they would have been waist high
by the beginning of July.
There was concern that rainfall is lost to surface runoff, streams and springs are
drying up, and soil moisture has declined.
Many people linked these climatic changes to deforestation and forest fires. A
farmer remembered collecting wood as a young boy from thick forests in the 1960s.
Now there are eucalyptus plantations that soak up water excessively. Deforestation
in Uttaranchal has its roots in the expansion of the British empire in India – the
growing demand for sleepers by the railways, timber and fuel for new emerging
cantonments and hill stations – and reached a peak during the Second World War
(Dangwal 2005). The traditional forests in the hills were replaced by commercial
monoculture plantations of pine trees for railway sleepers and turpentine, which had
a negative impact on the soil texture (Furtado pers comm). However, at present the
tendency is to cut trees indiscriminately for timber and firewood, and to start forest
fires to encourage regrowth for cattle fodder. There are no joint forest management
programme or awareness initiatives in this region. Without individual ownership,
there is no incentive to protect common lands.
16
Changes in cropping patterns and agricultural practices
The traditional cropping pattern in the region was called “barahnaj”, literally
“twelve seeds”6 that were grown together to optimize productivity and soil fertility,
ensure food security, meet diverse household needs, and minimize expenses on
agricultural inputs like seeds and manure (Sati 2005). However, farmers have
responded to migratory stresses and price incentives by changing the cropping
pattern towards maize and cash crops that require less effort and yield higher
returns. But they continue to depend heavily on rainfall, and hence the challenges
they face are two-fold.
1. Economic pressures
The fragmentation of land holdings in the hills prevents economies of scale and
creates challenges for irrigation and pest management. With poor road connectivity
and frequent landslides during the rains, the lack of transportation, storage, and
marketing facilities is obviously a prohibitive barrier. Farmers do not consider it
worthwhile to transport their small quantities of produce to distant markets where
the price may be higher. As more and more land is brought under vegetable
cultivation, oversupply combined with the absence of cold storage facilities and the
high price of seeds means that farmers become price takers. Aspirations for city
living standards and lack of other economic opportunities in the villages have meant
that the younger generation no longer considers agriculture as a viable livelihood.
2. Climatic and ecological stresses
Although Chhotau has some irrigated fields7, the river dries up in the summer. Crops
like potatoes, peas, gagli, and ginger have all been damaged in the last 5-10 years
due to late rains. The availability of fodder goes down in the summer, livestock
ownership is also reduced, and with it milk production and manure availability
declines. Millets like mundhwa and todiya, and pulses like urad that grew on
residual soil moisture after the maize crop can no longer be cultivated8. The winter
rains are also delayed, and the wheat crop has been very poor for the last 10-15
years. About 15-20% of the agricultural land is left barren.
Women’s role in agriculture
Women bear the major burden of performing agricultural operations and gathering
supplies for household needs. Time accounting exercises showed that they spend 14
6 Mandua (finger millets), ramdana/chua (amaranthus), rajma (common kidney beans), ogal
(buckwheat), urad (green gram), moong (black gram), naurangi (mix of pulses), gahath
(horsegram), bhat (soybean), lobiya (French beans), kheera (cucumber), bhang (cannabis) and
other crops.
7 About 10-15% of the cultivated land is river irrigated, while fields on higher slopes are rainfed.
8 Chopra and Pasi (2002) have highlighted the impact of this trend on protein intake and food
security.
17
hours a day working in the fields, and gathering fodder and firewood, preparing
manure, collecting drinking water, ropemaking, haymaking, etc (Figure 7). Agrawal
(2002) points out that men tend to perform agricultural operations where they have a
dominant role involving animals or tools, whereas women’s jobs depend on manual
labour, and hence have a lower status.
Figure 7. Women’s time accounting: Lakhwar and Chhotau
Coping measures
Households engaged in agriculture can employ a range of strategies in responding to
water scarcity (Narain 2003):
 by improving their access to available water (e.g. makeshift storages, digging
deeper tubewells, exchanging irrigation timeshares, buying groundwater, and
engaging in water theft)
 by reducing their demand for water (e.g. switching to less water consumptive
crops, adopting more efficient irrigation practices, and altering dates for
agricultural operations)
 by coping with the adverse impacts of periodic drought (e.g. credit, sale of
valuables and livestock, use of stored seeds and foodgrains)
 by diversifying their sources of livelihood (e.g. alternative employment
opportunities, migration).
18
Take loans,
10
Plant less
waterintensive
crops, 10
Leave village,
0
Irrigate fields,
2
Find other
jobs, 17
Sell land, 1
Sell
Sell livestock,
valuables, 0
1
Figure 8. Coping measures reported by farming households in Lakhwar village
Figure 8 shows coping options employed in Lakhwar village. However, closer
analysis reveals that it is the Rajput families who have responded positively to the
“take loans’ option. They have also reported “other” options such as “buying food
from market”, “son sends cash”, or “help from brother”. The lower caste farmers
have no option but to find other labour related jobs. The average annual income
reported by Harijan households was Rs 18,200 (about USD 428), while that by
Rajput households was Rs 69,000 (about USD 1621) with agricultural income
supplemented by income from service, pension, and money sent by family members.
In Chhotau the picture is more “equitable, if impoverished” with Joshi (Brahmin)
families reporting an average annual income of USD 408 and Harijan families
reporting USD 380. When the river starts drying up in the summer, farmers take
turns to flood their fields and stay up all night till the fields slowly fill up. People
keep fewer livestock, and the quantity of milk is reduced.
Traditional money lending charges interest of Rs 5 per month per Rs 100, i.e. 60%
per annum. Commercial banks charge 10-12 or 18% but there is cumbersome
paperwork involved and suspicious wariness due to poor understanding of terms and
conditions. Reciprocal exchange of cash, produce, and most importantly, labour is a
common coping strategy in the hills, particularly in the face of manpower shortages
(Agrawal 2002).
Scenarios and interventions
19
The timeline exercises presented in Appendix 2 allowed the community to trace key
developments that have taken place in the village over the last 50 years, and have
impacted their lives and livelihoods. They helped stimulate discussion about future
changes and possible adaptation interventions, which are summarized in Table 5.
Table 5. Adaptation interventions identified by village comunities
Coping with
current water
levels
Enhancement
of water supply
Alternatives to
agriculture
Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural
households in Lakhwar
Grow pulses for self consumption and enhancement of soil
nitrogen
Make and sell organic manure like Dhanpau women’s society
Grow fruit-bearing trees (e.g. reetha which doesn’t need much
water but has commercial value for soaps and shampoos) on
barren land
Resume cultivation of mundhwa which can be used in baby
food and wine, and jhangura which is used in pillows
Teach agriculture, horticulture, and dairy farming in high school
Extension workers should visit to provide expert advice e.g.
farmers could grow 2-month hybrid maize instead of 3-month
maize to cope with the late onset of the monsoon
Reforestation of the hills following the example of Mussoorie.
Incentives to village panchayats in the form of recognition or
rewards for reforestation or preventing forest fires.
Rainwater harvesting to serve needs in pre-monsoon months
Completion of the Lakhwar dam will not bring irrigation to the
village but will raise the water table, enhance soil moisture, and
rejuvenate forests
Consolidation of land is essential for commercial plantations
and fruit orchards that are key to the prosperity of Himachal
Pradesh
Primary education standards need to be drastically improved;
the key issue is regular attendance of teachers who are
unwilling to live in remote areas.
Vocational training
Promotion of tourism
Adaptation interventions identified by
agricultural households in Chhotau
Cultivation of medicinal / aromatic plants,
horticulture on barren patches
Rainwater harvesting storage tank
(This can be supplemented by constructing
irrigation channels, check dams, and
percolation ponds)
“Education and employment”
Vocational training – sewing, needlework
Matchstick factory
Value addition enterprises (like packaging,
juicemaking, processing of medicinal plants)
In general, the richer discussions in Lakhwar reflect the higher education levels and
relatively more comfortable economic status of this community. Both villages,
however, were similar in their belief that agriculture in its present form is simply not
a viable livelihood for future generations. Despite concern about unemployment
(“crime will rise and we will get the same atmosphere as in the plains”), the
discussions focused less on interventions related to water resources and more on
alternative livelihood opportunities. There was a sense that one cannot go back to
the old way of life due to changing economic structures, tastes, and aspirations.
20
Many of the desired interventions are highly ambitious and require not just technical
inputs but demand surveys and a reliable raw material sourcing and marketing chain.
However, harvesting interventions are clearly feasible, and are being promoted by
the Government of Uttaranchal, albeit in a top-down manner without always
understanding the ground situation. One of the success stories reported by the
Watershed Management Directorate of Uttaranchal is waterharvesting in village Kui
in Nir micro-watershed. The village, with 31 households, had only a pipeline with
scanty and irregular flow, 1 km below the habitation. 28 roof harvesting tanks were
constructed, with the villagers being responsible for the purchase of collection pipes.
There was a positive impact on agriculture, hygiene, and women’s daily burden.
While earlier the villagers grew few vegetables (potato, garlic, coriander) in the
rainy season in their homestead to meet their household needs, they could now grow
onion, green pea, and carrot, and increase the production of potato, garlic, and
coriander, making a profit of Rs 587 – 1030 per household. Hygiene too improved
with availability of water allowing regular bathing, washing of clothes and of
animals. Time spent by women on collecting water also reduced considerably
(Watershed Management Directorate Uttaranchal 2004).
Discussion of participatory approach
The study was formulated as a pilot case for the application of a participatory
approach, whereby insights can be gained into vulnerability and adaptive capacity
through mutual learning and exchange with the affected communities. The
interactions with communities acutely highlighted the mismatch between top-down
policy recommendations and ground-level needs and aspirations. It is difficult to
reconcile a situation where there is severe lack of water and near abandonment of
farming as a livelihood, with the new National Water Policy that lays emphasis on
the sale of water, and the right of the government or gram sabhas to sell excess
water.
The sharing of modeling results with the community, however, can benefit through
the presentation of more dynamic information. The replication and refinement of the
study methodology can held develop a programme of participatory research on
adaptation responses to water stress that are evolved by the affected communities
themselves. Such a programme can help policymakers more effectively target
resources to minimize the adverse effects of current and future water scarcity.
Box 2. Voices from the hills: individual narratives
Deepika and her mother are the only surviving members in the village of a large
family. They tend to the fields, but face an acute shortage of manpower. A share of
the produce has to be given to a wide range of people – labourers, temple priests and
drummers, the guard for the government owned water channel, etc. Deepika’s
21
brother decided to look for a private teaching job in the city after seeing the financial
condition of the family.
Beena, the woman employed to clean the temple area, has four daughters aged two
to eight, and hopes for a son. Her husband is an electrician. She said that girls in this
village are highly educated but sitting at home in hope of a good marriage. They do
not work, and do not look for private jobs. Her sister is an officer in the sales tax
department.
Rekha Chauhan, wife of a better-off farmer, talks of the need for cooperative action
without waiting for government support. She cites the example of nearby Dhanpau
village where women have started making and selling organic manure. But men in
Lakhwar don’t encourage such initiatives. In Luhan village (on the road up to
Nagthat) because of the availability of irrigation, farmers sold chilies and gagli
worth Rs 50,000 (roughly USD 1000) and have formed a cooperative society.
Namrata, Neha, Nupur, and Isha come from a relatively well-off family. Their
grandfather held the title of Rai Saheb, and there is a picture of him with Jawaharlal
Nehru taken at the Chakrata Dak Bangla. They are enrolled in a Dehradun college
but most girls in the village seem to go to the city only to appear for examinations,
while working on the fields the rest of the year.
A Lakhwar village elder remembered that in 1966, only one person had a bank job,
while the others were totally dependent on agriculture. Lakhwar had a self-sufficient
economy: people ate at home, took packed food when they traveled to buy supplies.
But now the situation is transformed. The last 2-4 years particularly have witnessed
a cash crop revolution – potatoes, ginger, gagli, and tomatoes are grown. This had
not happened earlier due to lack of information and experience e.g. inability to
choose seeds, or to understand fertilizer or pesticide requirement. But the future of
agriculture here is dark. Those with some education leave and only those with old
thoughts and attitudes stay behind in the village.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global
Environmental Change, a program funded by the David and Lucille
Packard Foundation and coordinated by START in partnership with IIASA. The
authors would like to thank the Institute’s faculty, mentors, and supervisors,
especially Ms Barbara Huddleston, retd FAO, Ms Preety Bhandari, TERI, and Dr
Frank Biermann, Potsdam Institute, for their valuable comments at different stages
of the study. We would like to express our appreciation to SMTA staff and advisors,
and particularly to its Director Mr Ruben Furtado for facilitating our interactions
22
with the communities of Jaunsar-Bawar. Our deepest gratitude is to the people of
Lakhwar and Chhotau villages for sharing their time and thoughts with us.
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