Assessing agriculture-water links at basin scale: hydrologic and economic models
of the São Francisco River basin, Brazil.
Marco Maneta, Marcelo Torres, Stephen A. Vosti, Wesley W. Wallender, Summer Allen,
Luís H. Bassoi, Lisa Bennett, Richard Howitt, Lineu Rodrigues and Julie Young
Abstract
This paper describes a basin-wide hydrologic model and uses it and a basic
characterization of agriculture to assess the hydrologic and economic effects of an
expansion of agriculture in the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil. The paper
then introduces a basin-wide economic model of agriculture and uses it to examine
the effects of implementing water use regulations. Preliminary results suggest that
substantially expanding agriculture would put pressure on some of the river’s
environmental flows, at least seasonally; agricultural GDP and rural employment
would increase, though not in spatially uniform ways. The economic model of
agriculture demonstrates how cropping area, crop mix, and production technology
simultaneously respond to water shortages. The paper concludes by assessing the
implications of model results for rural welfare.