TITLE: AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RETROSPECTIVE STUDY OF RABIES DIAGNOSIS AND CONTROL IN ISRAEL, 1948-1997 AUTHORS: B. Yakobson*, D. L. Manalo**, K. Bader***, S. Perl*, A. Haber*1, B. Shahimov*, N. Shechat* and U. Orgad* *. Department of Pathology, Kimron Veterinary Institute, Beit Dagan, Israel **. Philippines, International MPH Program, The Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University-Hadassah, Jerusalem, Israel ***. Al Quds University, Palestinian Authority Summary The only rabies diagnostic center in Israel is located at Kimron Veterinary Institute, belonging to the State Veterinary Services. Animal rabies records from the center were analyzed to provide an epidemiological summary of 50 years diagnostic activity. Human post-exposure treatment (PET) data, supplied by the Ministry of Health, were included in this review. A total of 2243 rabies cases were diagnosed between 1948 and 1997. Rabies occurred in almost all parts of the country with an apparent clustering in the North. Monthly or seasonal patterns were not apparent when the data of 50 years were analyzed for all animal species, nor when the data were grouped into ten-year intervals. When farm animals and fox-jackal cases were analyzed separately a pattern did emerge where fox and jackal numbers rose gradually from April to peak in October, followed by a decline and a minor peak in February. Farm animals followed the same pattern with each peak occurring two months after the fox-jackal peaks. Dogs comprised 50% of the animals diagnosed as rabid over the 50 year period, while most of the rabid, dogs were identified before 1958 and were mainly urban. From the mid 1970s, sylvatic rabies supervened, and rabid foxes accounted for 49% of all diagnosed cases between 1988 and 1997, establishing that foxes are currently the main reservoir of rabies virus in Israel. Despite the implementation of rabies control measures, such as compulsory dog vaccination, elimination of stray dogs and cats and quarantine of suspected rabid animals, the prevalence of rabies in domestic animals has remained static over the past 30 years. Three cases of human rabies in 1996 and 1997 have highlighted the risk of virus transmission if contact occurs between peoples and unvaccinated domestic or wild animals. The cost of rabies control activities and post-exposure treatment presents a high financial burden to the state. In Israel control of rabies requires concerted efforts in three areas. Firstly, increasing the vaccination coverage of dogs to over 70%, introducing obligatory cat vaccination and establishing a national register with electronic identification. Secondly, to implement an oral vaccination program for wildlife which would include monitoring fox and jackal populations, and thirdly, to extend the comprehensive rabies control program throughout the region to include Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Introduction Rabies has been described in the Middle East since Biblical times and its Hebrew name, "Kalevet", was coined at the start of this century by the physician, Beham (1), who established the Jerusalem Pasteur Institute in 1913 (2). Its rabies department reported that between 1914 and 1920, 1414 people were bitten (925 by dogs, 197 foxes,188 cats, 6 wolves and 98 others animals) and 198 people received postexposure treatment. On microscopic examination, 26 cases were diagnosed positive for rabies (3). The Central Laboratory of the Department of Health of the Government of Palestine began to keep records on the frequency of the disease in the 1920s and 1930s. These and subsequent data were analyzed by Goor (4), who documented 2207 cases of rabies between the years 1930 and 1947 (annual average of 122) as follows: dogs accounted for 67%, cats 12,1%, jackals 10,2%, horses and donkeys 5%, oxen 3,3% and others 1,7%. Between 1923 and 1946 at least 75 people died from the disease (4). Soon after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, the Kimron Veterinary Institute (KVI) assumed responsibility for rabies diagnosis in animals and subsequently also for the confirmation of fatal human cases. Nobel and Neumann (5), Perl et al. (6), Klopfer et al. (7) and Bader (8) have described epidemiological trends up to 1980. In 1949-1961, dogs and cattle were the most commonly affected domestic animals, and the jackal and mongoose among the wild animals (5). In 1971, foxes replaced jackals as the most commonly affected wild animal (6). Between 1980 and 1994 fox cases reached 45.8%, while dog cases were 28.6% (7). Shimshony has recently reviewed the role of the fox as a vector (9). The epidemiology of rabies and its trends in Israel have changed over the past 70 years. This retrospective analysis of rabies diagnosis deals with the period of 1948 to 1997, looking at case distribution by animal species, geography, and monthly and seasonal variations. Rabies control activities and their impact on rabies cases were also examined in this study. Legislative rabies prevention and control by the Israel Veterinary Services are based on the Rabies Ordinance 1934 (Ordinance to Provide For the Prevention of Rabies), revised in 1943, 1957, 1991 and 1992 (10). Rabies remains a significant public health concern in Israel. In 1996-97, three humans succumbed to the disease, after 26 years in which no human cases occurred. The economic aspects of rabies and of related control activities were evaluated in 1988 (11). The total nation-wide expense for 1988 was estimated at US$5,225,000, of which 84% was the cost of control activities carried out by municipal veterinary services. The expenses for rabies diagnosis by the Veterinary Services and Animal Health Division were estimated at US$273,000. Livestock vaccination costs were approximately US$190,000 and an additional US$11,000 were attributed to losses from quarantine of suspected farms. The annual cost of post -exposure treatment of humans, carried out by the Ministry of Health was US$ 316,000 in 1988. This figure rose to US$ 3,428,000 in 1997. Recurrence of rabies in people prompted the Ministries of Health and Agriculture and the National Reserve Authority to reconsider rabies as a priority zoonosis. Active and intensive surveillance is being carried out and budgets have been allocated to research on rabies prevention, especially in wildlife. Sylvatic rabies is a serious zoonotic problem in many countries of the world, including Israel. Successful national disease control program require several basic coordinated and scientifically-based operative steps. These include the collection, mapping and processing of epidemiological data with rapid dissemination among veterinarians, public health officials, National Parks Authority personnel, and the general public. These steps are essential for implementing a regional Middle East rabies control in accordance with World Health Organization recommendations (12). Materials and Methods Data were collected retrospectively from the records of Kimron Veterinary Institute’s Pathology department which conducts rabies testing free of charge. The department keeps records of every animal submitted for rabies examination, the species and origin, and, if the animal had bitten, the names of the bite victims and the date of the incident. The records of the positive cases from 1948 to 1997 were entered in MS-Excel and analyzed by SPSS. Distances between the diagnostic center and locations of rabies cases were determined by SPSS analysis of measurements on a 1:500,000-scale map of Israel. Data on rabies control programs and activities were obtained from the Veterinary Services’ annual reports. Data on human post-exposure treatment (PET) between 1963 and 1997 were obtained from the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health (MOH). In Israel, the decision to begin PET is the legal responsibility of MOH district physicians. Persons in contact with suspected rabid animals are referred to district offices and data of each incident are recorded. PET is recommended according to the circumstances of the exposures and MOH guidelines (12). The MOH distributes the vaccine free of charge. The frequency distribution for the past 50 years were determined and grouped into 10-year intervals and proportions were calculated. Results Animal Rabies Cases and Submissions Figure 1 shows the number of animal submissions and confirmed positive cases over the 50-year period. Submissions increased more than thirteen fold between 1948 and 1997, from 200 to 2700, with the greatest annual increases in 1954, 1990 and 1997. The number of animal submissions in 1997 was twice that of the previous year, as a consequence of the deaths in 1996-97 of three people from rabies. Nevertheless, there was no correlation between the increased number of submissions and the number of positive cases. Figure 2 shows the reduction in the positivity rate from 50% in the years 1948-1956 to a current rate of 5%. Figure 1. Animal Submissions and Positive Cases in Israel, 1948-1997 Figure 2. Positivity Rate of Animal Rabies Cases Israel, 1948-1997 Figure 3 shows the distribution of animal rabies cases over five decades. The highest number of cases occurred between 1948 and 1957. Thereafter fewer cases occurred, reaching a minimum in 1968-1977. However, during the last decade a clear increase in the number of rabies cases can be observed, despite a decrease in the positivity rate. Figure 3. Distribution of Animal Rabies Cases, 1948-1997 Figure 4 plots the number of positive animal cases, grouped according to the distance from the rabies diagnostic center. Considering that the positivity rate is about 5%, these results demonstrate that distance does not hinder the submission of animals for diagnosis. Similar results were obtained when the data were analyzed by 10-year intervals. Figure 4. Comparison of the Number of Positive Animal Cases with the Distance from the KVI Rabies Diagnostic Center (Beit Dagan) Geographical Distribution of Animal Rabies 1948-1997 From the cumulative data of 50 years, Zefat district had most (10%) of diagnosed positive animals. However, when the data were analyzed in decade, different districts predominated at each interval, and no single district predominated in the number of cases. In the first decade, Hasharon, which is located in the center of Israel, had the most diagnoses, accounting for 13% of the total cases. In the last decade, Beer Sheva, a district in the South, had the highest number of cases, 22.3% of the diagnoses. Monthly and Seasonal Variation of Rabies No monthly or seasonal pattern emerged from the cumulative data of 1948 to 1997, ever when the cases were grouped in 10 year intervals. However, a pattern did emerge when farm animal and fox-jackal cases were analyzed separately for monthly variation (Figure 5) The number of rabies cases in wild living carnivores (foxes and jackals) increased from April to a peak in October with a following decline and small increase in February. In farm animals and humans the increase starts in June peaks in December with following sharp decline and a second peak in May. The difference of two months in peaks from vector animals to farm animals reflects the mean rabies incubation period. Dogs and cats are not represented in this calculation as a major change occurred during last 50 years from non-vaccinated and non-controlled stray animals to mainly vaccinated and owned pets. Figure 5. Frequency of Monthly Distribution of Positive Rabies Cases in Wild and Farm Animals (Israel, 1948 - 1997). Animal Species Distribution of Rabies The distribution of rabies cases by animal species between 1948 and 1997 is shown in Figure 6. Dogs accounted for almost 50% of all cases while cattle predominated among farm animals. Figure 7 presents the distribution statistics for 1977-97, and shows a transition from urban to sylvatic rabies. In the last 20 years foxes accounted for 48% of positive cases thereby becoming the major reservoir and vector. Figure 6. Species Distribution of Rabies in Animals, 1948-1997 Figure 7. Species Distribution of Rabies in Animals, 1977-1997 The species trends in rabies cases showed an exponential growth in the number of wild foxes, (Vulpes vulpes) and jackals, (Canis aureus) with rabies during 1985-1997. The trend in rabid dog numbers did not change during the same period, although an exception was observed during 1991-1992 (Figure 8). Figure 8. Species trends in Rabies cases (Israel 1985-1997) The distribution of rabies among wild species, including the mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon ichneumon), badger ( Meles meles canescens), wolf ( Canis lupus), striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena) and stone marten (Martes foina syriaca) is presented in Table 1. Table 1. Rabies in wildlife species (Israel, 1948-1997) Species No. of Cases % Fox 386 69.2 Jackal 146 26.2 Badger 10 1.7 Wolf 9 1.6 Mongoose 5 0.9 Hyena 2 0.3 Marten 1 0.1 Total 557 100 Control Programs The rabies control program in Israel comprises: 1. Rabies surveillance through diagnosis of animal and human cases 2. Animal vaccination 3. Elimination of stray animals 4. Quarantine of suspected rabid animals Table 2. Rabies Control Activities, (Israel). Activity Submission for diagnosis Year 1948-1997 Dog vaccination 1976-1997 Annual Mean Std. Deviation Range Min Max 115 1656 676 363 94414 23029 68179 135587 Cattle Vaccination 1978-1997 36437 23000 4245 72508 Vaccination of other animal 1976-1997 7853 6334 81 20467 Dog elimination 1976-1997 18320 2966 13109 22541 Elimination of other animals 1976-1997 7844 2058 4747 13522 Quarantined animals 1976-1997 4908 1636 2987 8609 Table 2 shows statistics for rabies control activities in Israel. The average annual number of vaccinated of dogs was 94,414, cattle 36,437, and other animals - 7,853. The number of vaccinated dogs increased between 1978 and 1997 (Figure 9), with the highest increase occurring in 1991, i.e., 37% more than the previous year. The number of vaccinated cattle also increased between 1978 and 1997. Cats and horses were the only other animals vaccinated in the vicinity of rabies outbreaks, their numbers reaching an average of 8000, which was about 5.5% of all animals vaccinated annually in Israel (Figure 9). Figure 9. Number of Vaccinated Animals (Israel 19781997) Figure 10. shows the number of animals euthanized from 1976 to 1997. There was no significant change in the number of animals destroyed over this period, however since 1991 the seems to be in decline. On average 18,322 dogs were eliminated each year. (Table 2). Figure 10. Number of Animals Destroyed (Israel 19761996) The number of animals quarantined by government and municipal veterinary services are shown in Figure 11. The number of quarantined animals has been decreasing since 1978. The annual average of quarantined animals was 4,908 (Table 2). Figure 11. Number of Quarantined Animals (Israel 19761996) A positive correlation was observed (r=0.8648, p<0.0005) between the number of positive animals and numbers of dogs vaccinated, but no correlation was found between the number of positive cases and dogs eliminated (r = - 0.4445, p=0.38). The eliminated animals were mainly dogs and cats. Table 3. Human Exposure to Rabid Animals (Israel, 1948-1997) Year No. of Positive cases No. of Humans exposed (%) Involvement 1948-1957 940 682 72.6 1958-1967 358 166 46.5 1968-1977 149 44 32.1 1978-1987 205 15 7.3 1988-1997 591 119 20.1 Total 2243 1026 48.4 Table 3 shows that human exposure was registered in about 50% of animals diagnosed as rabies positive. The highest rate of involvement occurred in 1948-1957 (72.6% of positive cases). Subsequent there were decreases in both the number of submissions of animals and the degree of human involvement. In 1997, following the death of 3 people from rabies, the number of people who consulted and received treatment for possible rabies exposure increased by a factor of 2.3. However the percentage of those treated remained at 10 %. The Ministry of Health reported that 4400 of the 5000 people who received post-exposure treatment in 1997 had been exposed to dogs and cats ( Figure 12). Figure 12. Reported Number of Human Post-exposure Treatments (Israel, 19911997) Discussion This report analyses data of animal rabies records obtained from passive rabies surveillance. Domestic animals submitted for rabies examinations have usually bitten, scratched or attacked humans. Wild animals, mostly foxes and jackals, with unusual behaviour are brought to the diagnostic center by National Reserve Authority personnel. The total number of submissions for rabies diagnosis has increased tenfold since 1948. This is probably due to the increase in local human and animal populations, increased public awareness and the fact that rabies diagnosis is free of charge. The Rabies Diagnostic Center at Kimron Veterinary Institute is located in the center of the country and is easily reached. Our records show that geographic distance has not prevented submission of animals. The positivity rate, which is the proportion of rabies-positive submissions within the total number of animals submitted for diagnosis, is not indicative in the current study; it is the absolute number and distribution of positive cases by animal species which reflects the epidemiological situation. The highest number of cases was registered during the first decade (1948-1957). Dogs were the most commonly affected animals and this held true until the third decade, a situation still existing in neighboring Jordan (13). Studies of rabies in the USA also indicated that dogs constituted the majority of the cases in the early 1950s (14,15). The implementation of the Rabies Ordinance, mass poisoning of jackals throughout the country, and compulsory vaccination of dogs initiated in 1957, resulted in a 62 percent decrease in the number of cases during the subsequent ten years. The Rabies Ordinance legislates compulsory vaccination of animals, elimination of stray animals and quarantine of suspected rabid animals. From the mid 1970s a major transition from urban dog rabies to sylvatic fox rabies occurred and the total number of positive cases increased significantly (7). In 1991 there was a high percentage of dog rabies (73.5%) in Israel, probably due to the Gulf War in January 1991, when many residents of the metropolitan Tel Aviv area evacuated their homes and abandoned their pets, resulting in a large stray dog population and a resurgence of urban rabies (9). Intensive control measures were then implemented (16), the number of vaccinated, eliminated and quarantined animals increased and urban rabies was successfully eliminated within several years. In the last quarter of 1996, the first human case for 26 years occurred. Media coverage increased awareness of the disease and the number of submissions in 1997 rose sharply. Public awareness and fear, improved accessibility to veterinary and public health services, and free-of-charge diagnosis resulted in many submissions that were not backed by substantial clinical evidence. These included submissions of caged pet mice, hamsters, guinea pigs, and young kittens that had scratched or bitten young children. Consultations and treatment for possible rabies exposure increased by 2.3, however the number of people who received treatment did not change. Between 1976 and 1997, foxes accounted for 46% of rabies cases whereas jackals accounted for only 4%. The increase of disease in foxes is probably the result of human intervention. In the late 1950s the jackal population was decimated by countrywide poisoning, and the fox population replaced the jackal. This has been proposed as the reason for the reemergence of the fox as the reservoir and vector of rabies in Israel. However, it is possible that the apparent absence of rabies in foxes between 1949 and 1970 was a result of misclassification of foxes as jackals. Urbanization and agricultural development have resulted in increase in untreated garbage dump, which are a food source for wild canidae, whose population density has increased as a result of the enhanced carrying capacity of their habitats. This animal overload is a major factor in the incidence of rabies in Israel. The close contact between the habitats of humans, foxes and jackals is a major factor in transmission of the disease to domestic animals. Cattle are the major domesticated species of economic importance affected by rabies. In Israel rabies transmission often involves a carnivore-bovine link. Voluntary immunization of cattle against rabies started in 1970; in 1997 the number of vaccinated animals reached 72,000, which is 25% of the Israeli cattle population. The Israel rabies control program is comprehensive compared to its neighbors. In the West Bank and Gaza there is no active dog vaccination program (8); the only control measure is stray dog removal conducted in response to complaints of residents It is well documented that vaccination of pets is perhaps the most effective measure to control rabies (17-20). Dog vaccination coverage in Israel is estimated at 60% (9) which falls short of the WHO required recommended vaccination coverage of at least 70%. The number of vaccinated dogs has increased from 1976 to 1997. However, there is a positive correlation between the number of positive cases and the number of vaccinated dogs as most positive cases of rabies are in wild animals, and oral vaccination of foxes and jackals has not yet been implemented. The Rabies Ordinance (10) requires that an animal that has bitten a person be quarantined for ten days. If the animal shows clinical signs of rabies, it must be euthanized and the brain submitted for laboratory diagnosis. Stray dogs or unvaccinated dogs aged six months and older in areas of an outbreak must be destroyed (21). Smith has stated that the removal of stray animals is an effective way to control rabies (22). In Israel, between 1976 and 1996, the number of dogs removed was negatively correlated to the number of animal rabies cases. Monthly or seasonal patterns were not evident when cumulative data encompassing all species were summarized, nor when the data were grouped in ten-year intervals. When data for foxes and jackals were analyzed as a group, a monthly pattern did emerge. Seasonal variation has been reported in Europe; cases increased during the winter when foxes breed (23) and during summer when they migrate to new habitats (24). During these seasons contact and fighting among animals increase the transmission of rabies virus. In summer there is also an increase in the young fox population, that is more susceptible to infection (25). In Alaska, Canada and Russia, rabies only occurs during the winter (26). Rabies is endemic in some districts of Israel. In the first three decades, the majority of cases were found in the north and west of the country. In the last decade, 19881997, rabies predominated in the southern part of the country (27). Since 1948, rabies has been diagnosed throughout the country with annual clusters of cases in certain areas. For the last 20 years the densely populated and urbanized coastal area has been almost rabies free, with the exception of 1991-1992. The proportion of people who started PET was positively correlated with the number of animal rabies cases (r=0.6699, p<.0005). Only 10-15% of the people consulted for possible rabies exposure were advised to undergo PET which indicates that people have developed a high rabies awareness and seek consultation following any sort of animal contact. Ministry of Health regulations strictly conform to WHO PET guidelines. The decision to treat a person exposed to a suspected rabid animal is made by of the government physician. In Israel PET is free of charge which allows the patient to receive full treatment if needed without any financial constraint, unlike in some developing countries were the high cost of PET may be a limiting factor. Treatment of people for rabies in Jerusalem began in the 1920s (2, 3). The first human rabies vaccine used in Israel was grown in nervous tissue. It was replaced by the duck egg vaccine in the 1970s, which caused minor anaphylactic reactions (28). In the 1980s, the PDEV vaccine was replaced by a highly antigenic rabies vaccine grown in human diploid cells (HDCV) and known to be safe and effective in eliciting protective antibodies (29,30). The rabies immunoglobulin used in Israel is of human origin, it is costly and available only through regional health officers. Acknowledgment We would like to thank Prof. A. 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