Talking Points & Story Pitch: Graduation Rates
You may use these talking points to pitch story ideas to local reporters or to respond to queries
from local media outlets. You may supplement the information provided here with data from
your own school district. AASA grants permission to AASA members to use and reproduce this
material, in whole or in part and by any means, without charge or further permission.
The pitch: There’s a lot of talk nowadays about graduation rates. What’s interesting is that all
the numbers are just estimates—nobody knows for sure who’s graduating nationwide or even
statewide. What really matters? Here’s [your district]’s local graduation rate and what we’re
doing to make sure this year’s freshman class graduates on time.
The talking points:
 National graduation rate estimates range from 70 percent to 82 percent, and estimates for
minority student groups range from less than 50 percent to 75 percent.
 State and national graduation rate numbers are just estimates.
 We need better data to tell us who is graduating from high school and when.
 Confusing graduation numbers can lead to confusing policies for high schools.
 Debating the graduation rate doesn’t tell us much about what we need to do to help
students get the tools they need to succeed in life.
The data context:
Graduation rate estimates are all over the map. Here’s an explanation of some of commonly
quoted estimates:
 Claim of 70 percent graduation rate from Christopher Swanson of Education Week and
Jay Green of the Manhattan Institute:
o Estimates graduation rates as low as 50 percent in low-income urban areas, 55
percent for African-American students, and 53 percent for Hispanic students
o Based on state diploma records and National Center for Education Statistics data
o Uses questionable estimate of 9th graders and who graduated four years later
o Doesn’t account for the so-called “9th grade bulge” thought to be caused by 9th
graders repeating or dropping out after the 9th grade.
o Doesn’t account for student mobility and other changes to the cohort
 Claim of 74 percent graduation rate from NCES:
o Estimates the 4-year graduation rate
o Includes state diploma information as reported to the federal government
o Based on the Local Education Agency Universe Survey Dropout and Completion
Data File and the State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary
Education
o Doesn’t account for fifth- and sixth-year graduates
o Doesn’t account for student mobility
o Uses questionable estimate of 9th graders and who graduated four years later;
doesn’t account for the “9th grade bulge”
 Claim of 80 percent graduation rate from NCES:
o Includes 18-23 year-olds
o Based on GED testing service, Current Population Survey
American Association of School Administrators ● Back-to-School Toolkit ● Aug. 1, 2006 ● www.aasa.org
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o Includes self reported data
Claim of 82 percent graduation rate from Lawrence Mishel and Joydeep Roy of the
Economic Policy Institute:
o Estimates 74 percent to 85 percent graduation rate across racial groups
o Based on census data, NELS (longitudinal data on cohort – class of 1992),
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Current Population Survey
o Census includes self-reported data; people might overstate education levels.
NELS is just one cohort.
“9th grade bulge” makes estimates more complicated
o It is a challenge to get an accurate estimate of the number of true, and not
retained, 9th grade students
Transfers from private to public schools, and vice versa, make estimates more
complicated
Challenge of tracking 5th and 6th year graduates makes estimates more complicated
American Association of School Administrators ● Back-to-School Toolkit ● Aug. 1, 2006 ● www.aasa.org