DUE eSurge
Symposium “Towards a Near Real Time Core Storm Surge
Service” (eSurge User Consultation Meeting #3)
Deltares, Delft, 20-21 January 2013
Outcomes and Recommendations
Customer
ESA / ESRIN
Author
NOC/Logica
ESRIN Contract Number
4000103880/11/I-LG - e-Surge
CGI Project Reference
UKEC232223
Document Reference
D300_eSurge_UCM3
Version/Rev
V1.0
Date of Issue
30th January 2015
Prepared by:
Phillip Harwood, CGI
Accepted by
Craig Donlon
ESA Technical Officer
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
CONTENTS
1
1.1
1.2
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 3
Overview .............................................................................................................................. 3
Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 3
KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED .................................................................................... 4
Provision of Satellite Data .................................................................................................... 4
Usage of Satellite Data......................................................................................................... 4
Collaboration between Agencies .......................................................................................... 5
Training and Capacity Building ............................................................................................ 5
Networking and Community Building ................................................................................... 6
Continuation of eSurge Services .......................................................................................... 6
RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................... 8
ANNEX A LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ........................................................................... 9
ANNEX B FINAL WORKSHOP AGENDA ................................................................. 10
ANNEX C PHOTOGRAPHS ........................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
AMENDMENT HISTORY
Version
1.0
Page 2 / 12
Date
30/1/15
Change Description
Author
Initial draft for review by all Phillip Harwood, CGI
participants
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Overview
This is the meeting report for the third eSurge User Meeting (UCM-2), known as
“Symposium: towards a NRT Storm Surge Core Service” which was held at
Deltares’s premises in Delft, Netherlands on 20-21 January 2015.
This report aims to summarise the conclusions of the discussions held at the
meeting, and in particular to capture concrete recommendations endorsed by the
meeting participants.
Slide sets for the presentations given are available at the project website at
www.storm-surge.info/symposium-2015.
1.2
Abstract
Storm surges are a threat to lives and economies worldwide, as has been shown
by events such as Hurricane Sandy, Cyclone Haiyan and the 2013-2014 European
winter storms. Recently there has been much work done to improve surge
models, in particular using new types of satellite data, which show promising
results. The next stage is to use such techniques within near real time forecasting
services.
Both within Europe and worldwide, the state of storm surge forecasting is
extremely variable, with some countries operating sophisticated models and
others having almost no service. This symposium will promote the sharing of
information and experience between countries, as well as looking at the potential
for coordination by international bodies.
Since storm surge warnings are associated with extreme winds and waves, the
surge user community needs should be consistent, and promoted in parallel, with
those for NRT services of winds, waves and surge. This may involve a coordinated
international effort to implement a service portal for NRT measurements and
model data.
The symposium is being organised by ESA’s eSurge project (www.stormsurge.info). During the last few years this project has successfully built a
community for storm surges, providing users with new data through a
consolidated data portal. The project is coming towards the ends of its nominal
lifetime, and a key part of this meeting will be to discuss how the lessons learned
from the project can be applied elsewhere, and how best to ensure continuity of
key eSurge services to users through other means.
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Page 3 / 12
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
2
KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED
This section summarises the results of the discussions help either during the
formal discussion sessions on day 2, or in the question and answer sessions at the
end of each presentation.
It does not minutes of the discussions as they occurred, but instead to pull out the
common themes that emerged, and the conclusions and recommendations for
each theme.
A summary of recommendations is given in section 3.
2.1
Provision of Satellite Data
There was considerable discussion around the needs for providing data to
forecasters. It was agreed early on that this discussion should be more general
than just for storm surges.
There is a clear need to be able to have related products available through a single
portal. This should at a minimum include winds, waves and TWLE. Providing total
inundation is more difficult as it relates to other parameters such as river flow. In
particular for NRT altimetry (TWLE) there is a current gap as it is not clear where
this will be made available from.
Such a combined portal should link to key Copernicus services (Marine Core
Service, Emergency Management Service), though it may have different users and
hence may need to be a separate entity.
In some cases, it is not the parameters directly measured by satellites which are
important, but other parameters derived from these (e.g. pressure). Where
feasible these should also be displayed.
In terms of availability, for use in forecasting generally the sooner the data can be
made available to users the better. Ideally data would be available 4-6 hours after
acquisition. It is noted that this should be global, not just over priority areas such
as Europe. There should also be some means to show forecasters that such data is
due to be acquired, and when they can expect it.
Several speakers emphasised the importance of being able to visualise satellite
data, and in particular to overlay different products and to display them alongside
model data (see also section 2.2). Several different visualisation approaches are
available (e.g. the eSurge tools, EUMETSAT’s ePort service, tools for individual
organisations).
2.2
Usage of Satellite Data
Several presentations addressed the best way to use satellite data for storm surge
modelling and forecasting once it was available, whether in NRT or post-event.
Marco Bajo of ISMAR showed results integrating scatterometry and altimetry,
with scatterometry in particular being useful for forecasts.
Page 4 / 12
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
A particular promising use of altimetry is the blending approach presented by
Kristine Madsen of DMI. There is strong interest in extending this approach
further, for example to the Adriatic sea (or even to the whole Mediterranean sea).
Even where satellite data are not currently used in forecasts, they have a vital role
to play in model validation. This was discussed for example during the
presentations of the UK and Dutch models by Rachel Furner and Firmijn Zijl.
Visualisation of the data was again emphasises in the context of data use. This can
be an important factor in deciding how much weight to give a model prediction
during a live event. This was especially emphasised during the presentation of the
Danish forecasting activity by Marianne Palzer of DMI. Wind direction and
altimetry are particularly important here, as well as ‘traditional’ satellite products
such as visual images.
For altimetry, and in particular coastal altimetry, there have been many key
examples of how this can be applied to storm surges, as was presented by Paolo
Cipollini of NOC. However there is a feeling that there is still more that could be
done, and that users would like to make more use of altimetry but do not know
how. It was recommended that consideration be given as to how altimetry could
be made operational over the next 2-3 years.
2.3
Collaboration between Agencies
Two presentations, by Martin Verlaan and Alessandro Annunziato, looked at
global surge models. These have the potential to benefit many regions where
there is no surge warning at present. However where there are existing national
agencies with a mandate to provide surge warnings, such services are only
unofficial.
Alessandro Annunziato of JRC raised the question of providing an integrated surge
bulletin for Europe, or regions within Europe. JRC are already providing such a
bulletin experimentally1, in collaboration with several European agencies. In the
short term it was agreed that such an initiative was very useful, to investigate how
best information can be shared. In the longer term however there is an issue
around who has a mandate to issue official warnings. If a coordinated bulletin is to
be taken forward then it is best addressed through existing collaborations such as
NOOS2 or EUROGOOS3, or through WMO initiatives.
Building networks between existing agencies was discussed (see section 2.5).
2.4
Training and Capacity Building
It was strongly agreed by all participants that Capacity building in storm-surge
research and applying Earth Observation data to modelling and forecasting should
continue. This is partly linked to community building (section 2.5) but also has a
1 http://webcritech.jrc.ec.europa.eu/StormSurgeWeb
2 http://www.noos.cc
3 http://www.eurogoos.eu
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Page 5 / 12
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
more formal element of providing training, along the lines initiated by the eSurge
project4.
Training needs to satisfy a variety of audiences, from modellers to operational
forecasters, at a variety of different levels of expertise (e.g. from beginners guide
to modelling to advanced interpretation and applications). Trainers should consult
the audience they are attempting to teach during the definition phase of their
course design (e.g. ask people what they need to learn). There are particular
needs
Overall, academia and research organisations should provide the training, with
resources and leadership provided by international organisations (WMO, ESA,
EUMETSAT, etc) and with training definition and design provided by both experts
and potential student audiences (e.g. using networks such as those discussed in
section 2.5).
2.5
Networking and Community Building
A dedicated discussion session was held on day 2, looking at how much user
support exists continuing networking initiatives with respect to storm surges, of
the sort that eSurge has tried to pioneer5, and to identify potential avenues for
the networks established through eSurge to continue.
It was recognised that there are many key criteria which contribute towards the
success of networks, including that they should address a clear user need, be
focused on clear goals, and have clear Terms of Reference. Communication is
important if the group is to act as a real network, including regular meetings as
well as means for online discussions and communications through a variety of
channels. Strong leadership is important, and the effort required to support this
should not be underestimated.
EUMETSAT (represented at the symposium6) supports and leads a number of
ocean and meterological working groups and networks. With regards to the Storm
Surge Network established through eSurge, it was agreed that the eSurge team
should engage with EUMETSAT to identify where might be a suitable home for
this within EUMETSAT’s supported networks, and to identify the steps required to
successfully migrate the network to its new home.
2.6
Continuation of eSurge Services
A key part of this meeting was to discuss how best to ensure continuity of key
eSurge services to users through other means.
Generally it was agreed that the training, networking and community building
aspects should be dealt with separately, possibly through linking to EUMETSAT,
4 http://stormsurge.ucc.ie/training
5 https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Storm-Surge-Network-5051187
6 See presentation given by Julia Figa, online at
Page 6 / 12
www.storm-surge.info/symposium-2015.
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
and that the current need was to look at service continuation. The key question
raised was, who will complain if the service is turned off?
It was also emphasised that it is important for users to know what ESA’s plans are
for the service. Several users would like to use the data and services provided, but
the lack of clarity around their future availability means that it is not possible to
include these in users’ future work plans.
The eSurge Live service has already been integrated into the GDACS storm surge
model7, as shown in the presentations given by Phillip Harwood and Alexessandro
Annunziato. This allows the data provided by eSurge to be included in the JRC’s
own storm surge model, and to be made available to GDACS’s nearly 22,000
users. Early results of this collaboration were presented at the GDACS annual
meeting in November 2014, and were well received by the participants. Many of
the GDACS users are part of the humanitarian aid community, who had not
previously been aware of such data.
Ultimately, it would make sense for a continuation of the eSurge Live service to be
made directly part of GDACS itself. This will also allow future integration of
Sentinel services. However for this to occur there will need to be an extension of
the service, and the meeting made a strong recommendation to ESA that they
provide for such an extension. This extension should also consider some of the
In addition to the continuation of the service, there are other aspects of the
eSurge project which are worthy of further work. In particular, the blending
method developed by DMI shows promise, and there is high interest in extending
this to other areas, such as the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas. The eSurge (and
eSurge Venice) project teams are encouraged to look for other means to pursue
this, for example through H2020 funding.
7 www.gdacs.org
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Page 7 / 12
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
3
RECOMMENDATIONS
This section presents the recommendations that emerged from the discussion
sessions on day 2 of the symposium. A description of the discussions that led to
these recommendations is given in section 2.
For each recommendation, the organisation that is the subject of the
recommendation is listed in bold.
1. That ESA provide funding to ensure a continuation and updating of eSurge
services (in particular of the eSurge live NRT service) in order to allow a
smooth transition to an operational service potentially hosted by JRC.
2. That ESA should consider how best to work towards an integrated wind,
wave and altimetry portal, focussed on forecasters but more generally
than just for surges, and in particular considering future Sentinel data.
3. That the eSurge team should engage with EUMETSAT to identify where
might be a suitable home for network and community building activities
within EUMETSAT’s supported networks, and to identify the steps
required to successfully migrate the network to its new home.
4. That international organisations such as WMO, ESA and EUMETSAT should
ensure the continuation of training (online courses, training events), using
community networks to identify the most urgent requirements for
training.
5. That the eSurge team should investigate other funding opportunities, such
as Horizon 2020, in order to continue the work performed in this project.
6. That ESA (and other interested parties) should clarify their intentions for
eSurge continuation as early as possible, to allow users to include this in
their work plans.
Page 8 / 12
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
ANNEX A LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
Name
Annunziato, Alessandro
Arabini, Elena
Aramuge, Aderito
Bajo, Marco
Buckman, Lora
Byrne, David
Cipollini, Paolo
de Nunes Caires, Sofia
Donlon, Craig
Driesenaar, Tilly
Due, Enrico
Figa Saldana, Julia
Furner, Rachel
Gautier, Caroline
Harwood, Phillip
Madsen, Kristine
Muis, Sanne
Patzer, Marianne
Philippart, Marc
Pickering, Mark
Riazannoff, Sergio
Scarrott, Rory
Snaith, Helen
Stoffelen, Ad
Verlaan, Martin
Villars, Nicki
Zidjerveld, Annette
Zijl, Firmijn
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Organisation
JRC
University College Dublin
Universidate de Aveiro
ISMAR
Deltares
Univ. Liverpool
NOC
Deltares
ESA
CGI
UNIFE
EUMETSAT
Met Office
Deltares
CGI
DMI
VM University Amsterdam
DMI
Rijkswaterstaad
Univ. Southampton
Visioterra
CMRC
NOC
KNMI
Deltares
Deltares
Deltares
Deltares
Page 9 / 12
Country
Italy
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
NL
UK
UK
NL
NL
NL
Italy
Germany
UK
NL
UK
Denmark
NL
Denmark
NL
Uk
France
Ireland
UK
NL
NL
NL
NL
NL
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
ANNEX B FINAL WORKSHOP AGENDA
Tuesday 20th January
10:30-11:00 - Registration and Coffee
11:00-11:30 - Introductions and Welcome
Craig Donlon, ESA; Martin Verlaan, Deltares; Phillip Harwood; CGI
Session 1: Global Surge Forecasting
11:30-12:00 - The ESA DUE eSurge project and its legacy
Phillip Harwood, CGI
12:00-12:30 - Development of a global tide and storm surge model and
forecasting system
Martin Verlaan, Deltares
12:30-13:00 - Storm surge modeling at JRC and Data Requirements for the GDACS
System
Alessandro Annunziato, JRC
Session 2: National Storm Surge Services
14:00-14:30 - Forecasting and Modelling in the Adriatic Sea and Venetian Lagoon
Marco Bajo, ISMAR
14:30-15:00 - UK Storm Surge Forecasting Current system and future plan
Rachel Furner, UK Met Office
15:00-15:30 - A new Kalman Filter for Operational Storm Surge Forecasting in The
Netherlands
Firmijn Zijl, Deltares
Session 3: Towards an Operational service
16:00-16:30 - Wind and Waves NRT Services and User Requirements
Ad Stoffelen, KNMI
16:30-17:00 - EUMETSAT experiences in responding to the requirements of
Operational users
Julia Figes Saldana and Mark Higgins, EUMETSAT
17:00-17:30 - Discussion: coordination of national services
Wednesday 21st January
09:30-10:00 - Storm surge forecasting at DMI and perspectives on the use of Earth
Observation
Marianne Patzer, DMI
Session 4: Outputs of the eSurge project; New techniques
10:00-10:30 - Application of coastal altimetry to storm surges
Paolo Cipollini, NOC
Page 10 / 12
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Ref: D300, eSurge_UCM3, v1.0
10:30-11:00 - Assimilation of blended Altimetry and Tide Gauge Measurements in
the DMI Sea Level model
Kristine Madsen, DMI
11:30-12:00 - The eSurge Venice project
Stefano Zecchetto, CNR (presented by Marco Bajo, ISMAR)
12:00-12:30 - Leaving an eSurge legacy: training and community building
Rory Scarrott, CMRC
12:30-13:00 - How can the legacy of eSurge project be maximised
Rory Scarrott, CMRC
Session 5: Future Directions and Recommendations
14:00-15:20 - Discussion: towards a consolidated NRT portal for winds, waves and
surges
Led by Ad Stoffelen, and covering:
 Noted gaps in worldwide surge monitoring and forecasting, and
suggestions for amendment
 Need for improved user access, including ease of access to critical
data
 Capacility building, reflecting in particular recent
EUMETSAT/NOAA/WMO/IOC wind and wave training workshops
 Key recommendations to ESA, EUMETSAT and other agencies
15:50-16:00 - Closing remarks
Craig Donlon, ESA
Presentations are available at www.storm-surge.info/symposium-2015.
<End of Document>
© 2015 CGI Ltd.
Page 11 / 12
Company Address:
CGI Ltd.
Keats House
The Office Park
Springfield Drive
Leatherhead
Surrey
KT22 7LP
Contact person:
Phillip Harwood
eSurge Project Manager
P: +44 (0) 1372 759793
E: phillip.harwood@cgi.com