Analysis of Socio-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of Climate Variability of
Indramayu
Prepared by Rizaldi Boer
Introduction
Indramayu is one of regencies in West Java Province, located in the north coastal
area. Indramayu has 28 sub-districts (kecamatan), 8 special villages (kelurahan), and 302
villages (desa). Total area of Indramayu is about two hundred fourteen thousand hectares
consisted of rice paddy field 118.513 ha; fish ponds 16.239 ha; agriculture plantation 6.058
ha, forest 34.307 ha, and others 28,894 ha. Indramayu is quite flat. About 98% of the area
is between 0 and 3 meter above sea level and located mostly at southwest and north.
Elevation of regions in the middle and in the south is between 3 and 100 m above sea level.
Population of Indramayu is about 1.6 million people with mean growth rate of about
1.3% per annum. About 65% of the population depends on agriculture sector. The
contribution of this sector (including forestry, livestock and fishery) to the total gross
regional domestic product (GRDP) is significant, i.e. about 16%, the third rank after oil-gas
mining and oil-gas industry. If oil and gas were excluded, the total contribution of this
sector to the total GDRP became the highest (about 40%).
Based on data from 1999 to 2002, there was an economic improvement of
Indramayu. Based on 1993 constant price, the total GRDP of Indramayu regency in 1999
was 204 million USD (1 USD=Rp8000), and in 2002 it increased to 229 million USD,
while with oil and gas it increased from 559 to 589 millions USD. After the autonomy
system being adopted, the regency is demanded to increase its income from its own
resources called as Regional Indigenous Income called RII (Pendapatan Asli Daerah-PAD).
The regency should be capable of optimizing its RII as a source for governmental cost and
development needs. Therefore, the sources of RII that so far have already been managed
need to be intensified.
Agriculture sector will be one of prioritized sector which is targeted to increase the
RII. However, this sector has been found to be the most vulnerable sector to climate
variability. As an example, when extreme climate events associated ENSO, production of
rice, the main agriculture crop of Indramayu, decrease significantly. As rice crop is the
main agriculture crop in Indramayu, damaging effect of extreme climate events will have
multiplier effect on other economic activities. The following sections discuss briefly, how
the extreme climate events affect other sectors and program being implemented to increase
the farmers’ capacity to adapt to such events.
Impact of Climate Variability on Sectors
Household’s Income. According to the income, household can be categorized into
five groups, namely Pra-KS (very poor/below poverty line in which the level of income less
than regional minimum wage or equivalent to 320 kg rice/annum, not able to send children
to school, to pay for health service from government hospital), KS-1 (income is the same as
regional minimum wage, but still not able to send children to school, to pay for health
service from government hospital), KS II (income is higher than regional minimum wage,
able to send children to school, able to pay for health service from government hospital),
KS III (income is higher than regional minimum wage, able to send children to school, able
to pay for health service from government hospital, has good sanitary system in the house),
and KS IV up (wealthy household). During extreme drought years, the number of Pra-KS
household increased significantly due to harvest failure.
For example, in 2001, total number of household (HH) categorized as Pra-KS was
about 114,862 HH, KS-1 67,154 HH, KS II 80,250 HH, KS III 48703 HH; and KS IV
14,673 HH. In El-Nino year of 2003, the proportion of household with status of Pra-KS
and KS-1 increased, that is from 55% to 69% (Figure 1). This was primarily due to the
devastating impact of drought (prolong dry season) in 2002. From historical experiences,
Indramayu always suffers from drought when El-Nino occurs. Total rice area affected by
drought increase significantly (Figure 2).
Number of Household
180000
2001
2003
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Pra KS
KS I
KS II
KS III
KS IV-up
Income Status
Figure 1. Number of household based on income status in non-El Nino years (2001) and
El-Nino years (2003). Note: Pra-KS and KS1 are household with income below
poverty line
30000
Harvest failure (ha)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
0
Figure 2. Total area of harvest failure at Indramayu from 1990-2003. Reds represent ElNino years, and Blue La-Nina Year, and Black Normal year
Effect on other sectors.
El-Nino and La-Nina events affect not only
production of rice but also other commodities. Manggo, one of important horticulture
commodities at Indramayu, is affected by El-Nino in positive way. During El-Nino years,
production of manggo normally increased by about 15% as well as the quality. At present
total number of manggo tress is about 860.000 trees with average annual production of
about 35.000 tons. Potentially one manggo trees could produce about 400 kg/tree/annum.
Considering a number of productive tress and an average increase of about 15%, during ElNino year the increase of production of manggo at Indramayu could go up 40.000 tons.
Similarly, El-Nino also has positive impact on salt production, as the length of dry
season will be longer than normal years. The longer the dry season is, the more salt
production is. In the opposite, La-Nina will have negative impact on salt production.
Impact of EL-Nino and La-Nina on shrimp production is negative. Long dry season
due to El-Nino will cause a shortage of fresh water for ponds and this will increase the salt
concentration or salinity of ponds water. According to one NGO, Greenland, during ElNino the salinity of pods water could be more than 40, while the ideal salinity was between
28 and 30. In addition, water temperature also increased up to 30oC. The ideal temperature
for shrimps is between 20o and 28 oC. AT higher temperature, the shrimps bacame
sensitive to diaseses. In 2002 for example, long dry season has forced farmer to harvest
their shrimp earlier than normal, so that the price of the shrimp decreased from Rp65.000,per kg to Rp35.000,- per kg.
La-Nina, which normally follow by heavy flood, also destroy many ponds. Impact
of flood on fish farmers will be more severe than that on rice farmers. If flood occurs, fish
farmer will not get any yield since all of their fishes or shrimps in their ponds will be
flashed away to the ocean. But rice farmers, may still get yields as after the flood some of
the crops can recover.
Farmer Survey at Sliyeg sub-district
To better capture farmers’ condition and impact of climate variability on farming
activities, a discussion with a group of farmers at Sliyeg sub-district was conducted. In the
survey four main questioned being asked. The questions and the respond of farmers to the
question are discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.
1. What is major climate Related Problems?
Drought is the main climate-related problem. Total vulnerable area to drought is
about 4,000 ha (60% of the total rice paddy area). The crop suffers from drought during
dry season planting (2nd planting), in particular if first planting delays to December. Crop
panted in December will be harvested in March/April where rainfall already decreases.
Since 1997, farmers at Sliyeg sub-district got drought experience 5 times, i.e. in 1997,
1999, 2000, 2002, and 2003. In 1999 and 2000, the level of drought severity were mild, so
that farmers still got yield but much lower than normal yield. Based on farmers’
observation the length of rainy season in the last 6 years were mostly between 3-4 months,
while before 1997 it was between 5-6 months. The rice paddy area often hit by drought is
area that receives irrigation water at scheduling-3 (first irrigation water is normally in 15
November). At resent, total rice paddy area at Sliyeg Sub-district is 5200 ha, and it is
divided into 3 irrigation scheduling areas:
1. Irrigation scheduling-1: 100 ha (1st irrigation 15 October)
2. Irrigation scheduling-2: 3700 ha (1st irrigation 1 November)
3. Irrigation scheduling-3: 1500 ha (1st irrigation 15 November)
Source of irrigation water is from Rentang-Dam (Note: Climate Field School is
implemented in sub-districts where the sources of irrigation water are from Jatiluhur Dam
local water sources).
2. What are the options to cope with the climate-related problems?
There are a number of ways to escape from drought. First is by accelerating 1 st
planting using direct seeded system (Gogo Rancah system). Farmers at Irrigation
scheduling 2 and 3 has started planting on mid or late of October. However, only 20% of
farmers in this water scheduling systems practice direct seeded. Actually this system had
been practiced since long time ago and stopped practicing about 20 years ago. Farmers still
hesitate to practice the technology, as the cost required is higher. This system requires
more labors (in particular for land preparation and weeding), and yield is relatively lower.
Demonstration Plot at Santigi village showed that by applying herbicide before planting
could reduce cost for weeding, and the yield difference with transplanting system was not
significant. The second is using ‘Culik’ system. In this system farmers prepare seedling
for 2nd planting two weeks before harvesting the first crops. Thus, 2nd planting can be done
right after 1st harvesting. With this system, it is expected that the drought risk could be
reduced. Third is preparing pumping irrigation (only in limted area). Fourth is by
changing crop from rice to upland crops or vegetables such as mungbean, cucumber, long
beans, water melon, terong and blewah and fifth fallowing. Area of paddy field used for
these secondary crops is about 56 ha. Farmers prefer planting rice.
As most farmers do not practice the above technologies in drought years (between
50% and 60%), they normally suffer from drought. Most of these farmers change their
profession temporarily to be labors for construction either outside Indramayu or in
Indramayu, or work for other farmers in other village, or become ‘becak’ (bicycle
transportation) biker.
3. How you will use climate forecast information?
If the drought forecast can be informed at the right time (1 or 2 months before
planting), farmers can implement the above technologies (direct seeded, ‘culik’ system,
change rice crop or fallowing). In order to successfully applying gogo rancah system,
facilities should be made available in particular hand tractor for cultivation and guidance
from extension.
Recommendation to change rice crop to other crops as ways to escape from drought
is hardly followed by farmers. Farmers still prefer to plant rice. There are a number of
reasons why farmers do not want to change their rice crop:
 Water in their field is still abundant after first crop is harvested and farmers always
speculate that rainy season will not end soon or irrigation water is still available for
their crops.


Rice has important value for farmers even though they know they will get low yield.
They see rice as saving money. They can store it for long period, or consumed it while
other crops such as vegetables or some other upland crops have to be sold right away
after harvesting.
Price of rice is more stable than vegetables or other crops and it also easy to be sold.
Changing crop from rice to vegetables sometime is not beneficial, as during harvesting
time, price of the vegetable normally decreases.
4. What do you need to increase farmers’ adoption to climate information?
Farmers’ adoption to climate information can be increased through the following
programs:
 Program for capacitating farmers to use climate (forecast) information through Climate
Field School. Farmers’ believe that the program is very essential for them. Through
this program, farmers will understand concept of climate variability, and the ways to
use climate information for application. With this program, farmers will be able to cope
with climate extreme events betters.
 Program for stabilizing price of crops. In order to encourage farmers to change rice
crop to other crops such as vegetables, government is expected to provide market for
their product and to guarantee stable price. At present price of non-rice crops is very
unstable.
 Strengthen farmers groups and coordination with farmers group from other villages.
Sometime, farmers do not properly receive climate information, and in most cases they
do not receive the information, particularly if the member of farmer group is not from
the same village. For example ‘Tambi’ Farmer Group has area of 80 ha, and farmers in
this village only owned 2 ha while others owned by farmers from other villages. These
farmers normally meet during planting time or if the regular meetings, only the
cultivator farmers were presence while owner of the land who have decision to plant or
not plant were not presence.
Interview with Other Farm Actors
Other farm actors such as (i) money lender, (ii) farmer agribusiness entrepreneur,
and (iii) retailer of agriculture inputs may also affected by drought. During long dry
season, number of farmers that borrow money from the money lender will increase as they
do not get any income from their rice field. However, at Sliyeg farmers who still borrow
money from money lenders are not too many, i.e. about 10%-15% since government
offered a number of credit scheme programs. The system used by the moneylender is that
if farmers borrow money equivalent to 100 kg of rice, they have to pay at harvesting time at
about 150 kg of rice. This means that in 4 month, farmers have to pay the interest at about
50 kg of rice (50%). Thus the interest rate is about 12.5% per month.
Credit scheme programs offered by the governments consists of five types: (i)
BPLM (Bantuan Pinjaman Langsung Masyarakat, Direct Loan for Farmers), (ii) PPAP
(Program Pengembangan Agribisnis Pedesaan, Farmers Agribusiness Enterprise), (iii)
PKPP (Pengembangan Kelembagaan Pangan Pedesaan, Development Program for Food
Village Institution), (iv) PKP (Program Ketahanan Pangan, Food Security Program), (v)
Lumbung Desa (Village Storage), and (vi) PMI (Peningkatan Mutu Intensifikasi,
Improvement of Intensification). In principle, loan system offered by the programs are the
same. At present, number of farmers groups covered by the program is about 119 groups
(equivalent to about 10,000 ha) and total amount of funding is about 10 billion rupiahs (1.2
million USD). In these systems, Government through BNI (Indonesia National Bank)
provide credit scheme to farmer groups. Each farmers could borrow Rp600,000.00 per ha
(for buying seeds and fertilizers) and pay back through the farmers group. Thus farmers
will not deal directly with the BNI. The interest is 18% per year where 12% for the bank
interest, 2% for technical support, and 4% for the farmers group.
Farmers agribusiness enterprise is developed in order to develop the
entrepreneurship of the farmers group. Activities of this entity is not limited to food crops
but also other commodity such animal husbandry, fishery, perennial crops. Interview with
Mr. Nurdin (Leader of Hanura Agribusiness Enterprise) indicated that capacitating this
enterprise on the use of climate information would be very effective not only for increasing
adoption of farmers to climate information but also to assist the enterprise to set up better
strategy. Members of this Enterprise are well organized and they normally follow the
direction provided by the Enterprise. It would be very potential to develop a program like
Farmers Field School but the target participant is the staff of the Enterprise. The program
may be called as ‘Development of Local Institution for Climate Risk Management’.
Drought will affect the activities of the Enterprise. Most of the resources of the
Enterprise will be used for supporting rice-farming system during drought years so that
other activities of the Enterprise will be affected such as trading activities. During this time
the Enterprise will not have resources to buy rice from farmers. In normal years the
Enterprise makes contract with Dolog (Local Logistic Agency) or other entities for trading
rice. Thus the member of the Enterprise and also other farmers will sell their rice to the
Enterprise and the Enterprise makes deal with Dolog or other entities through contractual
agreement. With this system it is expected that the bargaining position of the farmers will
increase and they will get good price.
At Indramayu, retailers for agriculture inputs consist of three levels, i.e. Retailer-1
(R1), Retailer-2 (R2) and Retailer 3 (R3). By regulation only Retailer-1 can deal directly
with distributor and cannot trade directly with farmers. Retailer-3 can trade directly with
farmers. The fertilizer distributor should drop the fertilizers at the Retailer Shop at a price
of Rp1010 per kg. However, if the transportation system disturbed for example during
Lebaran where the road is block for truck for six days, the retailer has to buy the fertilizers
to the distributor directly. In this case they will requires additional cost for transportation,
labors and other transaction cost. The additional cost is about Rp40,- per kg, this the price
will go up to Rp1050,- per kg. Under this condition the retailer sell the fertilizer at price of
Rp1060-1070,- per kg. Thus the margin is between Rp10,- and Rp20,- per kg. Under this
circumstances, the R-3 also can buy directly to the distributor with recommendation from
head if sub-district. In the case, where the fertilizer price in other locations (other subdistricts or other villages) is higher, the distributors or retailers sometime do not sell the
fertilizer to the right sub-districts or villages but they sell it to other sub-district or villages
with higher price. To avoid this practice, the head of the district has issued a regulation
where the retailers can buy the fertilizers directly to the distributors only with
recommendation from head of the Indramayu districts. With this regulation, the head of the
district will know the volume of trading between the distributors and retailers. If in certain
villages or sub-district were reported there were fertilizer scarcity problem, the head of the
district can detect easily which retailers do not sell their fertilizer to the right sub-district or
village. If this is known, the head of the district could ask the distributor for not selling the
fertilizers to the retailers. At present the total number of R-3 at Indramayu district is about
300 kiosks. In 1993, it was only 50 kiosks.
Some retailers also provide loan for farmers. However during peak of planting
season, the Retailers only provide fertilizer to farmers who can pay in cash. In dry season,
the Retailers also assist farmers in providing pumping facility and loan for farmers to buy
fertilizers. If farmers borrow fertilizer from the Retailer for about 100 kg, the farmers
should pay back at harvesting time with 110-115 kg of paddy (1 kg paddy is about
Rp1250,- per kg). Kiosk Chi-Put owned by Haji Nono can serve about 2400 ha per season,
and he provide loan to about 600 farmers (equivalent to 600 ha). According to him, if
drought is predicted to occur next year, he will reduce the number of farmers who get the
loan. Of the 600 ha, only 300 ha that may be affected by drought since the other 300 ha
normally can escape from drought using pump irrigation water. Thus he will provide loan
to farmers who can get yield in that drought years (~ 300 ha).
Climate Forecast Delivery
To assist farmers activities, BMG is now providing climate forecast using old
forecast regions (DPM) every month and using new forecast regions every four months.
Under the CFA project, BMG has detailed the climate forecast region of Indramayu from
two DPMs to six DPMs. BMG provides the forecast in 10-days basis. For the six DPM,
BMG provided forecast using 1 year lead time. In July 2004, BMG provided rainfall
forecast for the six DPMs for August 2004 up to June 2005.
It was forecasted that in DPM 4 and 5 where the three-sub districts where CFS is
implemented (Kadanghaur, Juntinyut and Losarang), the onset of dry season would occur
earlier than normal between one to two decades (Prediction of season onset is estimated in
ten-day (decade) periods) and the characteristic of the rainfall would be below normal. The
amount of rainfall in the two DPMs would be between 66 and 72% of the normal. While
the onset of rainy season of 2004 will not change from normal, i.e between Nov. II and
Nov. III and the amount of rainfall would be between normal and above normal (between
106% and 117% of normal).
At present, modules for CFS for the second phase is being prepared. The CFS
participants expect that the new modules will be available before wet season planting is
started. They hope that through the CFS process, the better planting strategies for the
2004/2005 season could be set up. From the meeting made in the first week of October
2004, for the second phase, the new modules being agreed to be produced were:
1. Understanding ENSO
2. How ENSO information is used to set up planting strategies
3. Understanding market behavior in connection with climate variability
4. How to choose the right commodity for the second and third planting considering
market behavior
5. Improvement of the modules produced in the first phase, i.e. understanding probability
concepts, how to assess economic value of the climate forecast information
Inputs from ADPC and IRI is highly expected, particularly for the third and the fourth
modules.