WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
________________
CBS IMPLEMENTATION/COORDINATION TEAM ON
DATA-PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
CBS/ICT/DPFS/Doc. 8
_______
(23.V.2002)
ITEM: 8
MOSCOW, RUSSIAN FEDERATION, 3-7 June 2002
ENGLISH ONLY
TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA-PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and purpose of document
This document information on arrangements for the Technical Conference on
Data Processing and Forecasting Systems to be held in Cairns Australia, from
2-3 December 2002
Action proposed
The meeting is invited to review the issues raised in the document and give its
guidance and/ or take action, as the Chair of the OPAG may deem appropriate.
Appendices: Abstracts received slotted into the four conference topics
TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns Australia, 2-3 December 2002
Background
The conference will be held for the two days prior to CBS-XII in Cairns, Australia, and 2-3
December 2002. Invitation to the Conference and call for papers was issued in February 2002 and
is also posted on the WMO Web site.
The deadline for submission of abstracts of papers related to the four topics of the conference was
1 May 3002. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by 1 July 2002.
Received abstracts
There are 50 abstracts of proposed papers to be presented orally at the Conference. These are
slotted and listed within the relevant four topics as follows as given in the annex
The abstracts available in electronic form clustered into the four conference topics are given in the
appendices. Those abstracts not available in electronic form will be made available to the
conference co-ordination committee.
Selection of papers
The Co-ordination Committee (CC) of the Conference is composed of the Chair of the OPAG on
DPFS as Conference Director and four Conference topic chairs designated by the Chair of the
OPAG on DPFS. The Conference CC will select the papers to be presented and the mode of
presentation.
Organization matters
The CC for the Conference will select four keynote speakers, one for each conference topic either
from proposed submitted papers or by other means. It will establish a conference programme
identifying duration allowed to keynote speakers and other presentations including discussion.
The Conference Director should select four Rapporteurs, one for each topic who in collaboration
with the topic chairs will develop conclusions on each topic for use in integration by the Director of
the Conference as a report to CBS-XII.
It is possible to accommodate 30 oral presentations during the two day event if the CC select four
of those who have submitted abstracts of papers as keynote speakers and that the duration
allowed is 30minutes and that of other presentations is 20 minutes in either case inclusive of
discussions. The CC should therefor select papers base on content, relevance, geographic
representation and time factor as may be decided by the CC.
Resources
Limited are being sought to provide partial support for participation of keynote speakers and a
limited number of developing countries authors of selected papers.
Action
The ICT on DPFS is invited to review the issues raised in the document and give its guidance and/
or take action, as the Chair of the OPAG may deem appropriate.
Annex
WMO Technical Conference on Data-Processing and Forecasting Systems
Proposed papers listed by topic
TOPIC 1: Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
A Model to Generate Stochastic Nowcasts of Rainfall - Allan Seed, Australia
Procedures for the choice of a sub-ensemble with better use for the climate forecasts - Sampio de Oliveira et
al, Brazil
Ensemble approach to detailed statistical forecast of surface air temperature - Valentina Khan et al, Russia
Ensemble global weather forecast at CPTEC - Ont^onio Mendonça et al, Brazil
Operational Ensemble forecasting at the Canadian Meteorological Centre - Richard Verret et al, Canada
Bureau of Meteorology Medium -Range Ensemble Prediction System - Michele Naughton et al, Australia
Ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) - Rationale concept and
Principles - Zoltan Toth et al, USA
The sand storms over China and their monitoring and warning system - Jing Xu et al, China
Ensemble Prediction system at NMC/CMA - Hua Tian et al, China
Short Range Ensemble Forecasting at Meteo France - a preliminary study - Jean Nicolau, France
Ocean and Marine Forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC - Diana Greenslade et
al, Australia
TOPIC 2: Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Ensemble regional model forecasts over West Africa - Mahaman Saloum et al, Niger and USA
Climate prediction at CPTEC : The ensemble prediction systems - Sampio de Oliveira et al, Brazil
Seasonal Climate Prediction at CPTEC - Some examples of User's Experience - Helio Camargo et al, Brazil
The performance of Ensemble Forecast Models in predicting weather over East Africa - Joseph Mukabana,
Kenya
Ensemble Forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) - Operational Applications
- Steve Tracton et al, USA
Evaluation of MM5 NWP model at the Chilean Weather Service in simulation of a precipitation event Ricardo Alcafuz, Chile
Operational Application of the Shenwei Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System - Hengqing Mao et al,
China
The use of Multiple-model Ensemble Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast in the Hong Kong
Observatory - Tsz-Cheung LEE et al, Hong Kong, China
Tornado in the Department of Canelones - Andrés Silva et al Uruguay
Application of a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System for Severe Weather Prediction - Kamal Puri,
Australia
Potential for predicting east African seasonal rainfall by using time coefficients of sea surface temperature Eliphaz Bazira, Uganda
TOPIC 3: User requirements for severe weather forecasting
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Filling the void with "Severe weather Warnings" - Jim Davidson, Australia
Severe weather observation and forecasting system on the territory of Kazakhstan - Olga Abramenko,
Kazakhstan
Severe hydrometeorological events and their fluctuation - Anvar Khomidov, Tajikistan
The role of ACMAD in Training and Capacity Building in NWP in Africa - Ali El Majdoub, ACMAD, Niger
Changing user requirements for severe weather warnings and the response strategies of the Hong Kong
Observatory - Chiu-ying LAM, Hong Kong, China
On some aspects of Nowcasting of severe weather in the context of India - S.R. Kalsi et al, India
Introduction of satellite data in agricultural production campaign - Birama Diarra, Mali
User requirement for severe weather Forecasting - Cloud Burst - Naeem Shah et al, Pakistan
User requirement for severe weather Forecasting - In mano river union countries of West Africa - Alpha
Bockari, Siera Leone
Severe weather forecast as the major requirement for disaster management - Haroun Abdalla, Sudan
User requirements for severe weather forecasting in Uzbekistan - Irina Zaytseva, Uzbekistan
TOPIC 4: Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe
weather situations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Verification and interpretation of short range NWP model forecasts of cool and warm-season tornado storms in
Australia - Graham Mills, Australia
Predictability of seasonal rainfall and the associated flood hazards over the awash catchment - Diriba Korecha,
Ethiopia
Interpretation of hydrodynamic model output to predict severe weather, Marina Zdereva et al, Russia
Quantitative Precipitation Monitoring for Flood Forecasting and Flash Flooding - Shaukat Awan, Pakistan
Use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Products at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for
Forecasting Severe Weather - Denis Bachand et al, Canada
ECMWF forecasting system in support of severe weather prediction in the medium-range - Horst Böttger et
al, ECMWF, UK
Severe Weather forecasting: Post-processing NWP outputs and guidance production at the Canadian
Meteorological Centre - Richard Verret et al, Canada
Classification of severe weather in brazil based on precipitation analysis - Reinaldo Silveira, Brazil
Forecast verification in Khartoum forecast Centre - Sharaf Eldin Hassan Idris, Sudan
Strategies of Nowcasting and forecasting rainstorms in Hong Kong - Edwin LAI, Hong Kong, China
Use of satellite imagery for study of development of thunderstorm complexes in weakly forced environments R.C. Bhatia et al, India
Severe weather forecasting system in Macao - Antonio Viseu et al, Macao, China
Monitoring of extreme weather and climate phenomenon - Regional aspect - Mihail Dardur et al, Republic of
Moldova
Forecasting thunderstorms over Qatar - Ali Hamed Al-Mulla et al, Qatar
Operational, high-resolution prediction of tropical cyclone track and intensity over the western Pacific and
eastern Indian Oceans - Noel Davidson et al
The current State of Severe Weather Forecasting (excluding tropical cyclones) in the tropics - James Arthur
Australia
Small and large-scale flooding scenarios and the methods used in forecasting severe weather -Willness Minja,
Botswana
Appendix I
1. Title: Ocean and Marine Forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology
Research Centre (BMRC).
2. Authors
Ms.
Dr.
Dr.
Dr.
(Family name)
Greenslade,
Wang,
Alves,
Smith,
(First name)
(Country)
Diana
Australia
Guomin
Australia
Oscar
Australia
Neville
Australia
3. Topic
The presentation will probably encompass both ensemble systems and
forecasting for severe weather.
4. Abstract
The Ocean and Marine Forecasting Group at BMRC is involved in several
projects related to ensemble systems and severe weather forecasting. Two
of these projects will be described in this talk.
Coupled models for seasonal forecasting
POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) consists of the
BMRC unified atmospheric model (BAM3), the Australian Community
Ocean Model (ACOM2) and an ocean data assimilation scheme.
Initial conditions for the atmosphere are derived from an NWP model
(NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis in hindcast mode and the Bureau's operational system
GASP in real-time mode). The ocean is initialized from the ocean data
assimilation scheme. Thus the coupled model is given the best possible
representation of the ocean-atmosphere system at the initial time. An
ensemble of ten forecasts, run out to eight months lead-time, is made for
each calendar month by randomly perturbing the initial conditions.
Results from the above coupled model forecasts system will be presented.
Sea-state forecasting
The Bureau of Meteorology runs an operational system to predict sea-state.
The traditional approach towards ocean wave modelling is to force the wave
model with surface winds from an atmospheric model that does not include
any feedback from the sea surface. A more realistic representation of the
momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the surface waves should
include a drag coefficient that is dependent also on sea-state. Steeper
waves provide a rougher surface and hence a larger momentum exchange
between atmosphere and ocean. This is expected to have the largest impact
in rapidly varying conditions such as tropical cyclones. Preliminary
results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean wave model will be presented.
5. Oral presentation preferred.
6. Computer data projection and/or overhead projector will be used.
7. Contact details
Ms. Greenslade, Diana
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
GPO Box 1289K
Melbourne
Victoria 3001
Australia
Phone: 61-3-96694124
Fax:
61-3-96694660
E-mail: dag@bom.gov.au
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper:
A Model to Generate Stochastic Nowcasts of Rainfall ..........................
...................................................................................................................................................
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
1
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Seed ...................... ,Alan ................................ /Australia .......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display2:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)3:
The accuracy of nowcasts based on advecting the observed rain field is limited by the extent to which the
observed field develops during the forecast period. This temporal development can be either decay in
existing rain bands or the development of new rain bands in areas that are currently not raining. A
convenient way of representing this uncertainty in the forecast is to express the forecast as a probability
distribution rather than as an expectation. This paper presents a method to generate a series of stochastic
forecasts that are conditioned on the current rain field. The apparent motion of the field is first estimated as a
field of advection vectors, thereafter the field is disaggregated into a hierarchy of fields, where each level in
the cascade represents features in the rain field over a limited range of scales. The rate of change of the field
at each level is estimated and used to introduce correlated noise at each level which increases in proportion
with lead time, leading to pure stochastic noise after the largest scales in the field have evolved through their
lifetime. The forecast probability distribution is estimated by generating 100 forecast sequences, each
starting with the same observed rain field and for 10 to 90 minute lead times.
1
2
3
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
ANNEX 2, p.7
5. Do you prefer4:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
5
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr Seed ............................................. , Alan ...............................................................
Institution:
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia .........................................................................................
Address:
GPO Box 1289K ....................................................................................................................
Melbourne VIC 3001 .............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+ 61 3 96694591 .......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+ 61 3 9669 4725 ......................
E-mail:
a.seed@bom.gov.au ...............................
Date:
7 May 2002 ...............................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
4
5
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
-8-
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
2. Title of the paper:
ENSEMBLE GLOBAL WEATHER FORECAST AT CPTEC ..........................
...................................................................................................................................................
3. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.6
Mendonça ............. , Antônio Marcos.............. / Brazil ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Bonatti .................. , José Paulo....................... / Brazil ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
4. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display7:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

5. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)8:
The ensemble prediction system of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) was developed using
the initial condition perturbation method created by Zhang and Krishnamurty (1999) for hurricane forecast and from
some modifications suggested by Coutinho (1999). Essentially, the method consists of: 1) to add random perturbations
to traditional initial condition (control); 2) to integrate the model for 36 h starting from the control and from the
perturbed initial conditions, making output of forecast for each 3 h; 3) to construct a time series formed by the
successive differences between forecasts starting from control and perturbed analysis; 4) to perform a empirical
orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the time series of the differences fields over the region of interest in order to
obtain the fastest growing perturbation (considered as the eigenmode associated to the largest eigenvalue); 5) the
ensemble of initial conditions is generated by adding (subtracting) these EOF-based perturbations to (from) the control
analysis. Some characteristics of the method were modified in order to apply it for operational weather forecasting. In
the original version, Zhang and Krishnamurty perturbed the initial hurricane position, however, in the version
implemented in the CPTEC has not been made perturbations in relation the position of meteorological systems. The
region of perturbation used by Zhang and Krishnamurti (1999) was the neighborhood of the hurricane, however,
Coutinho (1999) showed that the use of the region 45.0 S to 30 N and 0.0 E to 360.0 E produces better results than the
use a specific region, such as, a region over the South America. In October of 2001, the CPTEC started operationally
the ensemble weather forecast. In this paper it is evaluated the skill of ensemble mean using anomaly correlations and
investigated the relationship between spread of ensemble and the skill of ensemble mean to summer of Southern
Hemisphere (December/2001, January and February/2002) in a region over South America. The results showed that the
ensemble mean presents better performance than the control forecast, especially for medium range forecast for the time
avarage. The analysis of spread and skill of ensemble mean revealed that the skill of ensemble mean tends to be great
when the spread is small, and the skill tends to be lower when the spread is great. These results suggest that EOF-based
perturbation method can be applied successfully for ensemble global weather forecasting.
6
7
8
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
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5. Do you prefer9:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

7. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

8. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
10
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Mendonça ................................. ,Antônio Marcos ...............................................
Institution:
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) ...................................
Address:
Rodovia Presidente Dutra, Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, 12630-000................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Brazil .....................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+55 12 5608531 ........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+55 12 5612835 ........................
E-mail:
mendonca@cptec.inpe.br .......................
Date:
April 30, 2002 ...........................
Signature: Antônio Marcos Mendonça ....................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
9
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
10
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
3. Title of the paper:
climate forecasts
Procedures for the choice of a subensemble with better use for the
...................................................................................................................................................
4. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.11
Mr. Sampaio de Oliveira
Gilvan
Brazil
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Dr. Satyarmuty
Prakki
Brazil
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
5. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display12:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

6. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)13:
This paper addresses important questions about ensemble climate forecasting system. Given an atmospheric general
circulation model (AGCM) ensemble run with a large number of independent integrations, is there a subensemble
whose mean, in principle, improves the forecast performance? Is there a way to identify a priori (before running the
forecast integrations) a subensemble whose mean can possibly give a performance better or equal to the performance of
the whole ensemble? The model is essentially run in forecast mode with fixed SST anomalies and predicted SST
anomalies using 25 members. To answer the first question a simple method for successive reduction of ensemble size is
developed based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (CCA) between the forecast and the observed fields of
precipitation. This method basically eliminates the member of the ensemble which decreases the spatial correlation
(over Brazil, in the present study) obtained between the subensemble mean and the observations in relation to the
complete ensemble. For all the seasonal forecast runs we found subensembles of 4 to 5 members whose mean
performed better than the mean of the complete ensemble or any other subset of members. In cases where the spatial
CCA of the complete enesemble is around 0,25 the CCAs of the subensemble had a substantial improvement. This tells
us that theoretically a small set of members are sufficient to obtain forecasts as good or better than can be obtained from
a 25- member ensemble. To answer the second question, a subgroup of members with the CCA equal to or greater than
CCA of the complete ensemble during the spin up period are chosen. The mean of the forecasts based on this subset is
found to have a spatial correlation with the observed precipitation of the same order of the complete ensemble. The size
of this subset is found to be around 9 members. This method can be employed as a useful tool for economizing the
computer time and to obtain early seasonal forecasts. The methods employed in this study can be extended to other
regions of the globe, because the best subset and its size can differ from region to region, from season to season and
from year to year.
11
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
13 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
12
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6. Do you prefer14:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

8. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:

Slides
Computer video display

Overhead

9. Personal data of the author:
15
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
Institution:
Address:
Family name,
First name
.Msc. Sampaio de Oliveira
Gilvan
CPTEC (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies)-Brazil
Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 39 - CPTEC/INPE - Cachoeira Paulista - São Paulo - Brazil
ZIP: 12.630-000
Country:
BRAZIL
Telephone:
+55 12 560-8545 ....................... Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+55 12 561-2835 ....................... E-mail:
sampaio@cptec.inpe.br
Date:
01/MAY/2002 ........................... Signature:
................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
14
15
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
4. Title of the paper:
Ensemble approach to detailed statistical forecast of surface air
temperature
5. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.16
Khan ..................... ,Valentina ......................... /Russia ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Tischenko ............. ,Vladimir .......................... /Russia ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Vilfand .................. ,Roman ............................. /Russia ...........................
6. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display17:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

7. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)18:
In this work, we develop an ensemble approach to detailed statistical method for predicting the air
temperature variability within one month in the central Russia. The statistical <segmentary>-linear
scheme for the surface air temperature forecast is based on using relationships between the air
temperature variability within a month on one hand, and the decadal temperature at 850 mb, the sea
level pressure, and H500 in the same month on the other. The global ensemble medium range
forecast (MRF) data used as input in the model after orthogonal transformation were obtained from
NCEP. The output of the constructed statistical model represents the extended ensemble spread
with members which were obtained as calculations with different set of informative predictors. The
forecast quality was evaluated based on the comparison with the air temperature observations in the
central Russia for the period from 2000 to 2001. For comparative study we also used results from a
hydrodynamical GCM developed at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The connection
between the forecast quality and the input ensemble data spread was investigated for some types of
synoptic situations. An objective classification method for the H500 fields served as the principal
predictor is proposed as a means to estimate the probable forecasting skill of the model a priori.
Generally, the forecast quality over study region was relatively low in cases where the circulation in
the northwestern part of the Atlantic ocean was predominantly zonal. In contrast, the model
performed well in cases where the circulation in this area was anticyclonic.
16
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
18 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
17
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7. Do you prefer19:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

9. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

10. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
20
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Khan .......................... ,
Valentina .................................................
Institution:
Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation ........................................
Address:
9-13, Bolshoy Predtechenskiy Pereulok , Moscow ...............................................................
ZIP: 123242 ...........................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Russian Federation.................................................................................................................
Telephone:
(095) 252 09 91.........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
(095) 252 09 91.........................
E-mail:
odpp@hydromet.ru ................................
Date:
April, 23, 2002 ..........................
Signature: Khan .......................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
19
20
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper:
Centre
Operational Ensemble Forecasting at the Canadian Meteorological
...................................................................................................................................................
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.21
Verret .................... ,Richard ............................ /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Houtekamer .......... ,Peter ................................ /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Lefaivre ................ ,Louis ............................... /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Pellerin.................. ,Gérard.............................. /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Klasa ..................... ,Marc ................................ /CANADA .....................
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display22:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)23:
Ensemble forecasts are run at the Canadian Meteorological Centre since 1996, operationally since February 1998, with
outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August 1999 and the
resolution was increased in July 2001. The method of producing the perturbed analyses consists of running independent
assimilation cycles that use perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models, mainly different in
their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is
then used to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble outputs have been used to generate several products. The ensemble
output is also used to feed a Perfect Prog statistical package to forecast probability of precipitation used to construct a
confidence index. Verifications of the ensemble forecasts will be presented with examples of the usefulness of the
technique.
Every day products such as spaghetti plots, 10-day temperature anomaly, calibrated probability of equivalent
precipitation, cumulative precipitation amounts, sea-level pressure centres, maps of 500 hPa geopotential heights,
ensemble spread of trial fields and confidence index are produced.
The ten-day mean temperature forecast is a mean temperature product deduced from the linear regression between
1000-500 hPa thicknesses and surface temperatures. Three class anomaly maps are produced. The ensemble approach is
a natural tool to forecast probability of precipitation (POP), where for a sixteen member ensemble, the classes could be
defined for thresholds of 2, 5 10 and 25 mm of precipitation in a 24 hour period. Reliability diagrams however show
21
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
23 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
22
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that the ensemble method demonstrates significant sharpness, but not enough reliability. Because of that, the POP’s are
calibrated to correct this bias.
Statistical PP 12-h PoP forecasts on each of the sixteen members of the Canadian EPS have been used to study the
spread-skill relationship of the EPS. The choice of the statistical 12-h PoP forecasts as a proxy for confidence index
may seem arbitrary but is justified by the fact that most of the predictors (if not all of them) for the 12-h PoP’s come
from the model mass fields. Consequently, the variance of these statistical forecasts is likely to provide a realistic
estimate of the overall variance amongst the ensemble members. It has also to be realised that the ultimate goal of a
confidence index is to provide users with the level of confidence on public forecasts, and probability of precipitation is
this context appears as the most important and appropriate parameter. It has been shown that a spread-skill relationship
does exist amongst the members of the EPS, and that this relationship is statistically significant at all projection times
out to 240-h. From these results, a confidence index has been developed and validated in cross-validation mode, and the
results appear promising. Further work is needed before such a confidence index is implemented.
5. Do you prefer24:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr25 Verret ........................................ ,Richard ............................................................
Institution:
Canadian Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada ...................................
Address:
2121 North Service Road, Trans-Canada Highway...............................................................
Dorval, Québec ......................................................................................................................
H9P 1J3..................................................................................................................................
Country:
CANADA ..............................................................................................................................
Telephone:
(514) 421-4683 .........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
(514) 421-4657 .........................
E-mail:
Richard.Verret@ec.gc.ca .......................
Date:
May 1, 2002 ..............................
Signature: Jean-Guy Desmarais (for authors) .........
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
24
25
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
5. Title of the paper:
Bureau of Meteorology Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction System
...................................................................................................................................................
6. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.26
Naughton .............. , Michael.......................... / Australia .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Bourke .................. , William.......................... / Australia .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Embery ................. , Gerald ............................ / Australia .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Fraser .................... , James ............................. / Australia .....................
7. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display27:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ...................................................................................... X

User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ...................................
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................
26
27

Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
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8. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)28:
The Bureau of Meteorology Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction System (BoM-EPS) has been running in
research trial mode since May 2000; since 5 July 2001 the BoM-EPS has been run daily as a BoM
operational trial system. The BoM-EPS consists of a 33-member ensemble of 10-day forecasts, based on
the BoM Global Assimilation and Prediction System (GASP). The ensemble perturbation strategy follows the
singular vector approach pioneered in the ECMWF EPS. Perturbations are scaled linear combinations of the
16 fastest growing 48hr T42L19 adiabatic singular vectors, localized to the Southern Hemisphere region
20S-90S.
In July 2001, the BoM-EPS was upgraded from T79L19 resolution with Eulerian advection to T L119L19 semiLagrangian. In December 2001, Northern Hemisphere perturbations were added and the EPS suite was
extended to run twice daily, at 00Z and 12Z; the 12Z run is timed to be available to BoM NMOC and
Regional Office forecasters by around 8am local time to help provide guidance to forecasters in each Region
when the daily medium-range forecast policy is prepared.
A range of EPS products is routinely available to BoM forecasters on the Bureau’s internal web as part of the
operational trial. Products include individual ensemble members charts, animated spaghetti plots, tubing
charts and ensemble significant weather probabilities.
An intercomparison study has been completed of the performance of the ECMWF and BoM ensemble
systems for the Southern Hemisphere over the five-month period April to August 2001. The intercomparison
provides a detailed benchmarking of the BoM-EPS. It demonstrates that the two systems are similar in their
overall ensemble characteristics; the EC-EPS products are generally from 12-36 hours more skillful in the
medium range, which is attributed in large measure to the superior quality of the EC analyses.
28
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
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8. Do you prefer29:
Oral presentation
X
Poster presentation

10. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display
X
Overhead
X
11. Personal data of the author:
30
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
Family name,
First name
Naughton........................ ,
Michael ......................................
Institution:
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre...............................................................................
Address:
G.P.O. Box 1289K, Melbourne 3001 ....................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+61-3-96694411 .......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
..................................................
E-mail:
naughton@bom.gov.au ..........................
Date:
30 April 02 ................................
Signature: Michael Naughton ..................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
29
30
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
6. Title of the paper: Ensemble Forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) – Rationale, Concepts and Principles ......................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
7. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.31
Toth ..................... , Zoltan ............................ / U.S. ............................../
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Tracton................. , M. Steven ....................... / U.S. ...............................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
8. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display32:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ...................................................................................... XX

User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ...................................
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

9. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)33:
Due to initial and model related errors, forecasts in a chaotic system like the atmosphere are
bound to lose skill with increasing lead time. The loss of predictability, however, is not uniform
either in time or space. Advance knowledge on the resulting variations in forecast skill can be
important for the users. Ensemble forecasting, where multiple integrations are carried our with
perturbations introduced in the initial conditions and numerical model that are representative of
the various sources of uncertainty, offers the only practical way of assessing case dependent
forecast uncertainty. In this presentation various aspects of ensemble forecasting will be
discussed, including generation of initial state perturbations, verification and post processing
methods in the NCEP global and regional model based operational forecasting systems.
31
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
33 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
32
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9. Do you prefer34:
Oral presentation
XX

Poster presentation
11. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display X
Overhead X
12. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr35
First name
Toth ...................................... ,
Zoltan ..........................................................
Institution:
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP ........................................................
Address:
5200 Auth Road .....................................................................................................................
Camp Springs, MD 20746 .....................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
U.S. ........................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
301 763-8000 X 7268 ...............
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
..................................................
E-mail:
Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov ..........................
Date:
April 30, 2002 ...........................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
34
35
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
7. Title of the paper:
ENSEMBLE GLOBAL WEATHER FORECAST AT CPTEC ..........................
...................................................................................................................................................
8. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.36
Mendonça ............. , Antônio Marcos.............. / Brazil ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Bonatti .................. , José Paulo....................... / Brazil ...........................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
9. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display37:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

10. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)38:
The ensemble prediction system of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) was developed using
the initial condition perturbation method created by Zhang and Krishnamurty (1999) for hurricane forecast and from
some modifications suggested by Coutinho (1999). Essentially, the method consists of: 1) to add random perturbations
to traditional initial condition (control); 2) to integrate the model for 36 h starting from the control and from the
perturbed initial conditions, making output of forecast for each 3 h; 3) to construct a time series formed by the
successive differences between forecasts starting from control and perturbed analysis; 4) to perform a empirical
orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the time series of the differences fields over the region of interest in order to
obtain the fastest growing perturbation (considered as the eigenmode associated to the largest eigenvalue); 5) the
ensemble of initial conditions is generated by adding (subtracting) these EOF-based perturbations to (from) the control
analysis. Some characteristics of the method were modified in order to apply it for operational weather forecasting. In
the original version, Zhang and Krishnamurty perturbed the initial hurricane position, however, in the version
implemented in the CPTEC has not been made perturbations in relation the position of meteorological systems. The
region of perturbation used by Zhang and Krishnamurti (1999) was the neighborhood of the hurricane, however,
Coutinho (1999) showed that the use of the region 45.0 S to 30 N and 0.0 E to 360.0 E produces better results than the
use a specific region, such as, a region over the South America. In October of 2001, the CPTEC started operationally
the ensemble weather forecast. In this paper it is evaluated the skill of ensemble mean using anomaly correlations and
investigated the relationship between spread of ensemble and the skill of ensemble mean to summer of Southern
Hemisphere (December/2001, January and February/2002) in a region over South America. The results showed that the
ensemble mean presents better performance than the control forecast, especially for medium range forecast for the time
avarage. The analysis of spread and skill of ensemble mean revealed that the skill of ensemble mean tends to be great
36
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
38 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
37
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when the spread is small, and the skill tends to be lower when the spread is great. These results suggest that EOF-based
perturbation method can be applied successfully for ensemble global weather forecasting.
6. Do you prefer39:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

12. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

13. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr40 Mendonça ................................. ,Antônio Marcos ...............................................
Institution:
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) ...................................
Address:
Rodovia Presidente Dutra, Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, 12630-000................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Brazil .....................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+55 12 5608531 ........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+55 12 5612835 ........................
E-mail:
mendonca@cptec.inpe.br .......................
Date:
April 30, 2002 ...........................
Signature: Antônio Marcos Mendonça ....................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
39
40
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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Appendix II
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
8. Title of the paper: Application of a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System for
Severe Weather Prediction .......................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
9. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.41
Puri ....................... , Kamal ............................. / Australia ......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Logan .................... , Les .................................. / Australia ......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Davidson............... , Noel ................................ / Australia ......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Naughton .............. , Michael........................... / Australia ......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof
Weber
, Harry
/ Germany
10. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display42:

1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... X
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ..................................................................................

4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

11. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)43:
Ensemble prediction has become an established part of operational global weather prediction at a number of
operational centres. The centres include CMA (China), CMC(Canada), ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. An
ensemble prediction (EPS) based on the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM’s) operational global model is
currently undergoing trials prior to operational implementation.
Ensemble prediction systems have been used for a wide variety of applications such as providing measures
of predictability and alternative developments; local probabilistic forecasts of weather elements; economic
value of forecasts etc. More recently there has been increasing interest in applying EPS for severe weather
forecasts. For example Puri et al. (2001) have applied the ECMWF EPS for ensemble prediction of tropical
cyclone tracks and have shown that the system has potential in providing information on uncertainty in the
tracks.
Severe weather prediction has been a prime motivation for the development of an ensemble system based on
the BoM’s operational Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS). This paper will describe key features of the
system and present examples of application to severe weather events.
41
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
43 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
42
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Puri,K., J. Barkmeijer, and T.N. Palmer, 2001: Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted
diabatic singular vectors. Q. Jl. R. Met. Soc., 127, 709-731.
10. Do you prefer44:
Oral presentation
X
Poster presentation

13. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display
X
Overhead
X
14. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr45
First name
Puri ............................... ,
Kamal ........................................
Institution:
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre...............................................................................
Address:
G.P.O. Box 1289K .................................................................................................................
Melbourne ..............................................................................................................................
Victoria 3001 .........................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+ 61 3 9669 4433 ......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+ 61 3 9669 4660 ......................
E-mail:
K.Puri@bom.gov.au...............................
Date:
15 May 2002 .............................
Signature: Kamal Puri .............................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
44
45
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper: Ensemble regional model forecasts over West Africa
10. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.46
DRUYAN ,
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
FULAKEZA
,
M.
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
LONERGAN
,
P.
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
SALOUM
/
Leonard M.
, Mahaman
Country
USA
/
USA
/
/
USA
NIGER
11. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display47:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ...................................
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ..................................................................................


4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

12. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)48:
Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the
NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt
regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km
horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary
conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. Random perturbations of surface pressure
bounded by -1.5 hPa and +1.5 hPa were applied to the initial conditions to create four arbitrarily different simulations
which were averaged to create the ensemble. These are not forecasts in the strict sense since they are forced with
ECMWF global analyses, but they do test the forecast skill of the system assuming "perfect" GCM boundary data.
The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave
disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a
secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated
against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of
simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWF initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of
the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation
"forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with
observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days.
The presentation will show the variability of model simulations of circulation and precipitation between the four
ensemble members. It will discuss how the ensemble approach improved results compared with individual simulations.
46
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Please tick "" the appropriate box.
48 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
47
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15. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
50
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
SALOUM
First name
..... ,
Mahaman
Institution:
Direction de la Météorologie Nationale
...............
Address:
B. P. 218 Niamey
Country:
NIGER
Telephone:
227 73 25 17
... Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
227 73 55 12
.... E-mail:
saloum@acmad.ne, sd@acmad.ne
Date:
29/03/2002
.... Signature:
................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
49
50
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
Title of the paper: CLIMATE PREDICTION AT CPTEC: THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
11. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
51
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Sampaio de Oliveira
Msc. Gilvan
Brazil
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Camargo Junior
Msc. Helio
Brazil
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
12. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display52:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

13. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)53:
The Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) has been issuing
experimental seasonal climate forecasts since 1995 using the spectral numerical global circulation model
CPTEC/COLA GCM with T62L28 resolution. This model is a modified version of the spectral COLA GCM,
which was derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). CPTEC's GCM uses a twotier approach of specifying the SST fields for the global oceans. The SSTs are specified in two different ways.
The first one is to persist the SST anomalies of the last month with observations. The second way is to use the
predictions of Tropical Pacific SSTs from the NCEP ocean-atmosphere coupled model and the predicted
Tropical Atlantic SST's from CPTEC Canonical Correlation Analysis, and persisted anomalies elsewhere.
Experimental 6-month lead-time seasonal forecasts are obtained as the average of an ensemble of individual
numerical forecasts (usually an ensemble with 25 members). Each member of the ensemble is a different initial
condition. The technique of ensemble prediction reduces the impact of the initial condition uncertainty on the
final result. Inter-run spread provides a relative measure of reliability of forecasts: low spread may indicate areas
of higher predictability and high spread indicates areas of low predictability. The suitability of the CPTECCOLA GCM as a tool for seasonal forecast has been assessed by running a 9-member ensemble for 10 years
(1982-1991) using observed SST's. Results indicates that the model represents well the main mean climate
features and also the interannual variability. In this paper the ensemble prediction system used at CPTEC is
shown for climate prediction. The present paper presents some results and applications of the climate forecasts
using the CPTEC model.
51
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53 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
52
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12. Do you prefer54:
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
Poster presentation

15. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

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
Overhead

16. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
55
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
Institution:
First name
Msc. Sampaio de Oliveira ......... ,
Gilvan
Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies - CPTEC - Brazil
Address: Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 39 - CPTEC/INPE - Cachoeira Paulista - São Paulo - Brazil
ZIP: 12.630-000
Country:
BRAZIL
Telephone:
+55 12 560-8545 ....................... Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+55 12 561-2835 ....................... E-mail:
sampaio@cptec.inpe.br
Date:
01/MAY/2002 ........................... Signature:
................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
54
55
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Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
9. Title of the paper:
Experience
Seasonal Climate Prediction at CPTEC – Some examples of Users´s
...................................................................................................................................................
12. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.56
Camargo ............... ,Helio ................................ /Brazil ............................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Sampaio ................ ,Gilvan ............................... /Brazil ............................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
13. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display57:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

14. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)58:
The Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) has been issuing experimental
seasonal climate forecasts since 1997. CPTEC's AGCM uses a two-tier approach of specifying the SST fields
for the global oceans. The SSTs are specified in two different ways. The first one is to persist the SST
anomalies of the last month with observations. The second way is to use the predictions of Tropical Pacific
SSTs from the NCEP ocean-atmosphere coupled model and the predicted Tropical Atlantic SST's from
CPTEC Canonical Correlation Analysis, and persisted anomalies elsewhere. Experimental 6-month leadtime seasonal forecasts are obtained as the average of an ensemble of individual numerical forecasts (usually
an ensemble with 25 members). Each member of the ensemble is a different initial condition. Inter-run
spread provides a relative measure of reliability of forecasts: low spread may indicate areas of higher
predictability and high spread indicates areas of low predictability. The suitability of the CPTEC-COLA
AGCM as a tool for seasonal forecast has been assessed by running a 9-member ensemble for 10 years
(1982-1991) using climatological SST's. Results indicates that the model represents well the main mean
climate features and also the interannual variability. The seasonal forecasts are quite useful for user´s
arrangements concerning on what the decisions would be according to the forecasts..
56
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58 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
57
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13. Do you prefer59:
Oral presentation

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
16. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
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
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
Overhead

17. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
60
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Camargo .................................... , Helio................................................................
Institution: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) – National Institute for
Spatial Research (INPE) .......................................................................................................................................
Address:
Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 40 ..........................................................................................
Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo
CEP 12630-000......................................................................................................................
Country:
Brazil .....................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
55 12 5608429 ..........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
55 12 5612835 ..........................
E-mail:
helio@cptec.inpe.br ...............................
Date:
April, 30th , 2002 .......................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
59
60
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Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
10. Title of the paper:
The performance of Ensemble Forecast Models in predicting
weather over East Africa
13. Author (Co-authors):
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.61
Family name
Mukabana,
First name
Joseph
Country
/
Kenya
14. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display62:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective .………..


3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ..................................................................................

4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

15. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)63:
Kenya’s economy largely depends on rain fed activities such as: Agriculture, Hydropower and Water for
domestic and industrial consumption. Severe weather, like flash floods, strong winds, hailstones, lightning
amongst other phenomena, affects the safety of lives and property in Kenya. Lake Victoria, the second
largest fresh water lake in the world, generates its own climate and support a large community of about 35
million in its basin. However, lives are regularly lost in the lake. Flooding is frequent in the river basins and
cities. Skilful prediction of severe weather is therefore important for a country like Kenya, whose economy
cannot handle disasters of large scale, to ensure safety of life and property.
The main objective of the study is to assess the skill of ensemble model forecasts available on the Internet in
predicting weather over Kenya and parts of East Africa. Time series, correlation and variance analyses are
used to verify the models performance.
From the preliminary results, it has been observed that the ECMWF-MRF cumulative precipitation model
has a fairly good forecast skill during the dry season in comparison to the wet season. Generally the
NCEP/COLA MRF model under-predicts the precipitation during the wet and dry seasons. The FSU model
is able to capture deep convection mainly associated with Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and
strong converging systems. The model is not able to pick shallow and middle level convection for example
the morning rains experienced over Central, North Eastern Kenya and parts of East Africa.
61
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63 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
62
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14. Do you prefer64:
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
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
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
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
Overhead

18. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
65
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Mukabana
,..............................
Joseph
Institution:
Kenya Meteorological Department
.
Address:
P. O. Box 30259 Nairobi
.
Country:
Kenya
Telephone:
254-2-567880-5
Telex:
22208
Telefax:
254-2-576955/577373/567888
E-mail:
mukabana@lion.meteo.go.ke
Date:
25th April 2002
Signature: ................................................................
.........
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
64
65
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Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
11. Title of the paper: Ensemble Forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) – Operational Aplications ..........................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
14. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.66
Tracton.................. , M. Steven .................. / U.S. ...............................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Toth ...................... , Zoltan
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
/ U.S. ...............................
15. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display 67:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... XX
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ..................................................................................

4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

16. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)68:
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) runs operationally an ensemble system with its
Global Medium Range Forecast model for medium-range (3-14 days) predictions (MREF) and a regional
model based ensemble with its Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for short ranges (0-3 days)
over North America. While the fundamental principles and concepts of ensemble forecasting apply equally
well to both systems, medium and short-range forecast problems are different with regard to time and spatial
scales of interest. In medium-range forecasting the phenomena of interest are the larger scale, longer-lived
circulation systems and associated weather, whereas at short ranges focus is on the mesoscale details of
weather systems and associated sensible weather. Together, MREF and SREF can be viewed as integral in a
“seamless suite” of products that enable estimates in the forecast confidence of specific weather threats, first,
in the context of the requisite larger-scale circulation pattern at longer ranges and, then, in the details of the
relevant weather system and associated sensible weather in the short range. This paper, through examples
and case studies, will address some of the key issues in regard to operational applications of the ensembles
in short to medium ranges. These issues include: 1) the design and display of “forecaster friendly” ensemble
products, 2) approaches for conveying to users information on the nature and implications of the
uncertainties in forecasts, and 3) training and education of forecasters and users in the concepts and
principles
relevant
to
operational
applications
of
ensemble
prediction.
66
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Please tick "" the appropriate box.
68 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
67
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15. Do you prefer69:
Oral presentation
XX
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
18. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

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XX
Overhead
XX
19. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
70
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr Tracton ....................................... , M. Steven .......................................................
Institution:
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) .......................................................
Address:
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, MD 20746 .....................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
U.S. ........................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
301 763-8000 X 7222 ..............
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
..................................................
E-mail:
steve.tracton@noaa,gov .........................
Date:
April 30, 2002 ...........................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
69
70
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Please underline the appropriate title.
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Appendix III
Comment: See fax copy for update!!
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1.Title of the paper: Severe weather observation and forecasting system on the territory of
Kazakhstan
15. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.71
Abramenko
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Ivkina
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
First name
Country
Olga
Kazakhstan
Natalya
Kazakhstan
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
16. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display72:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. V
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

17. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)73:
One of the most important and crucial tasks assigned to the Hydrometeorological service of Kazakhstan is
severe weather forecast. Especially this concerns the dangerous phenomena such as strong wind, squall, dust
storm, frost, icing, drought and flood, avalanche and mudflow. The consequences of these phenomena are
rather various. Many of them lead to the destruction of people dwellings, pollution of water and infection of
food that result in occurrence of the problems related to the human health. They render an adverse influence
on the industrial and economic activity of the society and often result in the loss of life. In Kazakhstan,
where the climatic conditions are subject to large fluctuations, the damage may reach 80-85 %. Therefore,
the awareness of the natural phenomena represents the special interest for us, as assist to develop the
effective strategy on reasonable combination of severe weather forecast information and measures on
prevention its consequences. For study of the phenomena the reliable observation system is required. The
climatic data for long periods allow to estimate scales and frequency of the extreme phenomena and to show
quantitatively a potential danger of each of them. At present in Kazakhstan a number of manuals on
observation for the dangerous and hydrometeorological phenomena and their warning are developed. The
criteria of severe weather are established, on getting which the storm warning on the beginning of
phenomenon is sent. Each step towards to reduction of consequences of the severe weather is a stage in the
direction of increasing the public safety and reaching the sustainable development.
71
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Please tick "" the appropriate box.
73 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
72
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16. Do you prefer74:
Oral presentation
V
Poster presentation

19. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display
V
Overhead

20. Personal data of the author:
Family name
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr75
First name
Abramenko
Olga
Institution:
Republican State-owned Enterprise “KAZHYDROMET”
Address:
32, Abay Ave, 480072, Almaty
Country:
Kazakhstan ...........................................................................................................................
Telephone:
(007) 3272 54 22 70..................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
(007) 3272 69 65 00..................
E-mail:
abram@nursat.kz.................................
Date:
08 April 2002
Signature:
................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
74
75
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Please underline the appropriate title.
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CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING, CAIRUS,
AUSTRALIA, 2ND TO 3RD DECEMBER 2002
TITLE: POTENTIAL FOR PREDICTING EAST AFRICAN SEASONAL RAINFALL BY USING TIME
COEFFICIENTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
BY
MR. ELIPHAZ BAZIRA
DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL
P.O. BOX 7025, KAMPALA, UGANDA
ABSTRACT
This study was done over East Africa, which consists of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania
located within latitudes 5°N and 12°S and longitudes 29°E and 43°E.
Spatial patterns of rotated Principal Components of season rainfall were used to delineate
East Africa into 36 regions. Time coefficients of seasonal rainfall were generated from
each region up to the fourth component. Time coefficients were also generated from
Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Stepwise regression equations were developed by
using the time coefficients.
Regression results indicated that during the season of December to February the second
and third modes of Indian Ocean as well as first and second modes of Atlantic Ocean
showed significant correlation with seasonal rainfall over southern Tanzania. The first,
second and fourth components of Pacific Ocean also showed significant correlations.
During the season of March to May, Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean modes explained
maximum variances of 11.6,11.7 and 11.7 respectively. During the season of June August all Atlantic Ocean modes explained maximum variance of 10.0 over northern
Uganda and 11.4 over coastal regions of Indian Ocean.
During the season of September to November all Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean
modes explained maximum variances of 11.4,11.4 and 11.3 respectively while all Oceans
explained a maximum variance of 34.0 over the same season. Ocean modes, therefore,
have a potential for predicting seasonal rainfall over East Africa.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
12. Title of the paper:
Africa.
The role of ACMAD in Training and Capacity Building in NWP in
16. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
76
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
First name
Country
EL MAJDOUB ..... ,Ali ................................... /Niger .............................
17. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display77:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. X(*)
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

18. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)78
The ACMAD programme, which started in 1992 at the inception of the Centre at Niamey, Niger has
involved more than 1500 meteorologists from about 50 Member States, in capacity building activities
in Climate Information and Prediction, Medium Range Weather Guidance and New Technologies of
Information and Communication. About 40 percent of them were trained in NWP Unit. The Medium
Range Weather Guidance was achieved by the interpretation of products from Global Modelling
Centres. The Centre issued daily significant weather forecast for media, 5-day guidance bulletins on
specific days of the week and specific sub-regional bulletins as needed. These activities continue to
date.
During the Core Demonstration Programme there was clearly need to do more at ACMAD in the area
of Numerical Weather Prediction, from the mere use of NWP products developed elsewhere, to the
acquisition of know-how, and to facilitate the participation of ACMAD and NMHSs scientists in the
generation of NWP products for use by its forecasters. This need arose from several considerations
such as relevant experience which existed in some African countries, the success of the FIRMA
research programme of ACMAD, the wish of many meteorologists expressed through many fora,
including those that had passed through ACMAD, the existence of ‘portable’ workstation models
(such as ALADIN, ETA or the NCEP RSM).
In view of the above considerations, ACMAD acted to answer those concerns by starting a
consultative process with its member states and co-operating partners, with a view to initiating an
ACMAD Strategy in Numerical Weather Prediction, using the ACMAD approach ... building things
together, which had proven a success in climate prediction.
(*) Please note that this paper does not coincide exactly with any of the four proposed topics. However, it
goes with **************************
76
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Please tick "" the appropriate box.
78 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
77
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17. Do you prefer79:
Oral presentation
X

Poster presentation
20. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:

Slides
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X
Overhead

21. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
80
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr EL MAJDOUB .......................... ,
Ali
Institution:
African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) .....................
Address:
2, Avenue des Ministères, B.P. 13184, Niamey -
Country:
NIGER
Telephone:
+227 73 49 92 / 72 31 60 ..........
Telefax:
+227 72 36 27 / 72 28 94 ..........
elmajdoub@hotmail.com ................................
Date:
15th April 2002 ..........................
Telex:
E-mail:
elmajdoub@acmad.ne or
Signature:
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
79
80
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
13. Title of the paper:
Filling the void with “Severe Weather Warnings” .................................
...................................................................................................................................................
17. Author (Co-authors):
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.81
Family name
Davidson........ ,
First name
Jim .................. /
Country
Australia .............
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
18. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display82:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. x
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

19. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)83:
Some years back, the Queensland Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology commenced an
operational trial of a new “Severe Weather Warning” service. It was specifically designed to provide
a means of alerting the public-at-large to a range of weather hazards, typically produced by
wintertime east coast lows and ex-tropical cyclones. These systems are poorly captured by the
suite of traditional warning services. For weather events of this type, forecasters may be required
to warn land-based people of simultaneous threats from a number of hazards including high winds,
torrential rain, flash flooding, dangerous surf and elevated sea levels.
⌂Since the trial commenced, Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for upwards of 20
separate events, thereby raising the Bureau’s operational profile in Queensland. The conference
paper will address both the practical and scientific aspects of providing the service, including the
interpretation of model forecast guidance. It will also discuss the merits of developing a “Severe
Weather Outlook” service and a complementary pictorial product.
81
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
83 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
82
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18. Do you prefer84:
Oral presentation
x
Poster presentation

21. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display
x
Overhead

22. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
85
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Davidson ................................... , Jim................................................................
Institution:
Queensland Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology ..........................................................
Address:
GPO Box 413.........................................................................................................................
Brisbane .................................................................................................................................
Queensland 4001 ..................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+ 617 3239 8739 .......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+ 617 3221 4895 .......................
E-mail:
j.davidson@bom.gov.au.........................
Date:
9 May 2002 ...............................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
84
85
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
WB/DP/CONF-DPFS, ANNEX 2
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/wvvw/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc)
1. Title of the paper: Severe hydrometeorological events and their fluctuation
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.1 Khomidov ,
Anvar..
/ Tajikistan
Co-author Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof. Asanova ,
Valentina
/ Tajikistan
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display 2:
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ................................................................. II
4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page) 3:
Severe hydrometeorological events and their fluctuation
Particular synoptic processes and orography of this region determine distribution of severe hydrometeorological events
in Tajikistan. Interrelations of moisture-laden stream with complex landscape determine high spatio-temporal
fluctuation of these events.
Last achievements in the area of forecasting usually provide us 3-5 day of warning time.
National hydrometeorological service of the Republic of Tajikistan is responsible for informing of following events:
 Storm warning
 Thunderstorm
 Strong wind
 Strong precipitation
 Rapid temperature increase/decrease
 Soil and weather frost
 Fog
 Ice-crust
 Avalanche
 Floods
 Shearing of Medveji glacier
All these forecasts are made for 12-48 hours advance time.
Used methods of forecasting floods allow giving forecasts with 60-70% reliance and for 12-48 hours.
It should be noted that this method of ice surge is developed for Medveji glacier only. There is no such method for other
ice surges.
Extreme value of meteorological values and events in Tajikistan were a subject to change. This led to increased
number of days with the temperature of 40 0 and higher, increase of days with fogs, floods and avalanches.
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ANNEX2,p.2
5. Do you prefer4:
Oral presentation U
Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides
7. Personal data of the author:
D
Computer video display 
Family name,
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr5
Khomidov
Overhead U
First name
Anvar
Institution:
Main administarion of hydrometeorology and environmnetal monitoring
Address:
47 Shevchenko street
Country:
Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Telephone:
+992 372 231821
Telex:
Telefax:
+992 372 215522
E-mail: meteo@tjinter.com
Date:
24.04.02
Signature: Khomidov A.
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002 by the
Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION World
Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department P.O. Box 2300 CH1211 GENEVA 2 Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021 E-mail:
mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
4
5
Please tick">/" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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Appendix IV
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
14. Title of the paper: The current State of Severe Weather Forecasting (excluding tropical
cyclones) in the tropics ............................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
18. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr
ARTHUR.............. ,James ............................... /AUSTRALIA ...............
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
19. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display86:
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2. Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ...................................
3. User requirements for severe weather forecasting ..................................................................................
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. .......................................................................................................................................... 
20. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)87:
The current state of forecasting severe weather (excluding tropical cyclones) in the tropics is examined. It is
concluded that there is little skill at present. Reasons for the difficulties, using examples from various parts
of southeast Asia and the western Pacific are discussed. The current state of NWP and its usefulness in the
tropics is considered. Ways forward are suggested.
86
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
87
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19. Do you prefer88:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation
22. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides
Computer video display

Overhead
23. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
Mr89
First name
ARTHUR .................................................... ,James ...............................................................
Institution:
Australian Bureau of Meteorology ........................................................................................
Address:
PO Box 40050, Casuarina NT 0811 ......................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
61 8 8920 3801 .........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
..................................................
E-mail:
j.arthur@bom.gov.au .............................
Date:
15 May 2002 .............................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
88
89
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
15. Title of the paper: Operational, high-resolution prediction of tropical cyclone track and
intensity over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans
19. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.90
Davidson............... , Noel ................................ /Australia .......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Weber ................... , Harry .............................. /Germany .......................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Puri ....................... , Kamal ............................. /Australia .......................
20. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display91:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations.
>>>>>>>>>

21. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)92:
From southern summer 1999-2000, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has produced operational, highresolution TC forecasts with the BMRC Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System, TC-LAPS, over
the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. The system has 5 basic components: 1. Data assimilation to
define the large-scale environment (LSE) and outer structure of the storm; 2. Vortex specification to
construct a vortex consistent with the past motion, intensity and size of the TC; 3. High-resolution objective
analysis to merge the vortex at the observed location into the LSE; 4. Initialisation using diabatic, dynamical
nudging to balance the vortex and insert satellite-observed convective asymmetries; and 5. Prediction with
the BMRC Limited Area Prediction Model, which contains advanced numerics and sophisticated physical
parameterisations.
Track verification statistics are rather encouraging. Mean track error at 48-hours is ~ 230 km. There are also
promising signs for intensity forecasting. Over the northwest Pacific in 2001, RMS central pressure error at
48-hours for 89 forecasts was ~ 17 hPa, with a forecast-minus-observed bias of ~ 10 hPa. The system
however displays some systematic errors, which will be described. Planned improvements to each
component of the system, to reduce these errors will be discussed.
90
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
92 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
91
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20. Do you prefer93:
Oral presentation

>>>>
Poster presentation

23. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

>>>>
24. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
94
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Davidson ................................... , Noel................................................................
Institution:
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre...............................................................................
Address:
PO Box 1289K .......................................................................................................................
Melbourne 3001 .....................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
613-9669-4416 ..........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
613-9669-4660 ..........................
E-mail:
n.davidson@bom.gov.au ........................
Date:
21 May 2002 .............................
Signature: N.E. Davidson ........................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
93
94
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper: Using physic-statistical interpretation of hydrodynamical atmosphere
model to medium-term prediction of severe weather on Ural-Siberian region .....................
...................................................................................................................................................
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.95
Zdereva ................ ,
Marina ................... /
Russia .................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Tokarev................ ,
Victor .................../
Russia ..................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display96:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

97
4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page) :
Development of numerical modelling led to sucsessfull forecasts of synoptic scale weather systems on several days in
advance. Useful prediction of concrete weather elements or phenomenons is more difficult because local scale factors must
take in account. One of the approaches to solve this problem is interpretation hydrodynamic model output. This direction
is widespread in Siberian Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute. So methods to predict minimal and maximal
temperature, amounts of precipitation, prevailing velocity of wind and other elements on period from 1 to 5 days have been
developed for the region from Ural to East Siberia. In the last years we are studying possibility using this approach to
predict severe weather. The basic information is forecasts of baric fields near the Earth and at the AT-500, and temperature at
the AT-850, obtained from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast.
The choice of affecting factors is produced on the base physical and synoptical conditions of origin of dangerous weather
events. To build informative vector-predictors we apply variable statistical instruments (regression or discriminant
analyses, function of distribution probabilities and other) and empirical researching results. Hydrodynamic initial forecasts is
used as "Perfect Prediction" (PP) conception or as "Model Output Statistics" (MOS) conception. At the present time
methods and models to predict strong winds, snow-storms, high snowfall, early and late frosts from 1 to 5 days advance have
been created. Algorithms of putting data into operation and dissemination results are added.
All schemes are realized on super-computer CRAY-EL.
The most of this research projects have been estimated and now are using in operative synoptic work on Ural-Siberian
region. Positive perspectives in this branch of research are improvements in the field hydrodynamic modelling of
atmosphere, turning on exceeding quality and reduction spatial-time resolution in output.
95
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
97 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
96
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5. Do you prefer98:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
99
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Zdereva ........................... ,
Marina ...................................
Institution:
Siberian
Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute .........................................
Address:
Sovetskaj 30, Novosibirsk, 630099 ............................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Russia..................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
7-3832-222-530 ......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
7-3832-226-347 ......................
E-mail:
sant@meteo.nso.ru .............................
Date:
4 april 2002 .............................
Signature: Zdereva...................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
98
99
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper:
..................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.100
Zdereva ................ ,
Marina ................... /
Russia .................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Tokarev................ ,
Victor .................../
Russia ..................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display101:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................
4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)

102
:
Development of numerical modelling led to sucsessfull forecasts of synoptic scale weather systems on several days in
advance. Useful prediction of concrete weather elements or phenomenons is more difficult because local scale factors must
take in account. One of the approaches to solve this problem is interpretation hydrodynamic model output. This direction
is widespread in Siberian Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute. So methods to predict minimal and maximal
temperature, amounts of precipitation, prevailing velocity of wind and other elements on period from 1 to 5 days have been
developed for the region from Ural to East Siberia. In the last years we are studying possibility using this approach to
predict severe weather. The basic information is forecasts of baric fields near the Earth and at the AT-500, and temperature at
the AT-850, obtained from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast.
The choice of affecting factors is produced on the base physical and synoptical conditions of origin of dangerous weather
events. To build informative vector-predictors we apply variable statistical instruments (regression or discriminant
analyses, function of distribution probabilities and other) and empirical researching results. Hydrodynamic initial forecasts is
used as "Perfect Prediction" (PP) conception or as "Model Output Statistics" (MOS) conception. At the present time
methods and models to predict strong winds, snow-storms, high snowfall, early and late frosts from 1 to 5 days advance have
been created. Algorithms of putting data into operation and dissemination results are added.
All schemes are realized on super-computer CRAY-EL.
The most of this research projects have been estimated and now are using in operative synoptic work on Ural-Siberian
region. Positive perspectives in this branch of research are improvements in the field hydrodynamic modelling of
atmosphere, turning on exceeding quality and reduction spatial-time resolution in output.
100
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
102 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
101
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5. Do you prefer103:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
104
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Zdereva .......................... ,
Marina ...................................
Institution:
Siberian
Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute .........................................
Address:
Sovetskaj 30, Novosibirsk, 630099 ............................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Russia..................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
7-3832-222-530 ......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
7-3832-226-347 ......................
E-mail:
sant@meteo.nso.ru .............................
Date:
4 april 2002 .............................
Signature: Zdereva...................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
103
104
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
16. Title of the paper: PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL RAINFALL AND THE
ASSOCIATED FLOOD HAZARDS OVER THE AWASH CATCHMENT
...................................................................................................................................................
20. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.105
Mr. Korecha
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Diriba
Ethiopia
21. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display106:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations.
x
22. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)107:
Predictability of seasonal rainfall and the associated flood hazards over the Awash Catchment
Diriba Korecha
E-mail: dirbab@hotmail.com
National Meteorological Services Agency, P.O. Box 1090, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Abstract
In Awash catchment, like in many parts of Ethiopia, a significant proportion of rainfall variability is associated with regional as well as
global weather phenomena. Significant, physically based lag relationships exist between an index of the ocean/atmosphere ENSO
phenomenon and future rainfall amount and temporal distribution in the upper and middle regions of the Awash catchment. Over the
lower lying portions of the catchment, inter-seasonal and inter-annual rainfall variability is so high that few parameters are identified as
potential predictors. A skilful seasonal climate forecast provides an opportunity for farmers, power generating company and water
reservoir to better management decisions to season ahead.
Timing and frequency of future rainfall events strongly influence the social, economical and physiological activities of the catchment. For
a forecast to be effective, such decision making, ultimately has to improve the long-term performance of flood protection, drought
hazards or power shortage. To be most effective, the approach shown here deals with the predictability as well as understanding of
rainfall patterns of the catchment and lesson learnt so far.
105
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
107 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
106
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21. Do you prefer108:
Oral presentation
Poster presentation
x

24. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides
Computer video display
x

Overhead

25. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr109
Mr. Korecha
First name
Diriba
Institution:
National Meteorological Services Agency
Address:
P. O. Box 1090
Country:
Ethiopia
Telephone:
251-1-615779.......................... Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
251-1-517066.......................... E-mail:
dirbab@hotmail.com
Date:
30 March 2002 ...................... Signature:
Diriba korecha
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
108
109
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
Title of the paper:
Quantitative Precipitation Monitoring For Flood Forecasting And
Flash Flooding
21. Author (Co-authors):
Author: Mr,
Family name
AWAN.......... ,
First name
SHAUKAT........... /
Country
PAKISTAN .........
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
22. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display110:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

23. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)111:
Doppler weather radar (X-Band) plays a significant role in tracking down the tropical storms and
depressions. Since its effective hydrological range is 240 Km as such atleast 1 to 2 days in advance
the information with specific direction of movement and internal structure of the clouds embedded
with heavy precipitation are obtained. The intensity of the rainfall as depicted quantitatively through
decibel variations with Pseudo colouring technique can pinpoint the areas of intense rainfall, and
with appropriate software CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plain Position Indicator) the volumemax
Analysis over a particular place (determined through Echotop capability) and its intensity value
provides a time lapse and cumulative information in three dimensions which is extremely important
for Hydrological/Flood Forecasting. It was used during the Monsoon season of 2001 for
determination of flood peak due to heavy rainfall events in Indus river basin particularly in the
rivers Ravi & Sutlej the flood peaks calculated & forecast issued for evacuation of people & cattle
in the river bed two days in advance. Various agencies e.g. District management, Relief & general
public were informed & timely action saved huge loss to life & property establishing credibility of
severe weather forecast it issuance & dissemination.
110
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
111
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22. Do you prefer112:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

25. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

26. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
113
Mr
First name
AWAN ......................... ,
SHAUKAT ................................
Institution:
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ..........................................................
Address:
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION ..................................................................................
46-JAIL ROAD, LAHORE-54000 ........................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
PAKISTAN............................................................................................................................
Telephone:
00-92-42-9200208 ....................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
00-92-42-9200209 ....................
E-mail:
nffb@paknet4.ptc.pk ..............................
Date:
15-04-2002 ................................
Signature:
Sd/- ......................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
112
113
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
(
1.
Title of the paper: Use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Products at the Canadian
Meteorological Centre (CMC) for Forecasting Severe Weather
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.114
Bachand
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Biron
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Mailhot
, Robert
Co-author: Mr.
Chen
, Peter
, Denis
. , Henri-Paul
Country
. / Canada ......................
. / Canada ......................
. / Canada ......................
/ Canada
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display115:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................
4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)116:

Abstract
Quality forecasts of high impact weather are of prime importance to ensure the safety of the population when such weather conditions
are expected. In Canada, numerical models provide the basic guidance used by forecasters throughout the country to forecast
hazardous weather conditions. In addition, the public faces numerous non-meteorological hazards which depend, and some critically,
on meteorological conditions which of themselves may not be hazardous. At the CMC, we produce forecasts of objective parameters,
based on model outputs, as guidance to the regional forecast offices who have the responsibility for forecasting and issuing warnings for
summer and winter severe weather, as well as providing meteorological services to agencies that are responsible for public safety or
authorities on these other hazards (e.g. fires, floods, infestations, etc.). This paper deals with CMC’s role in forecasting severe weather.
During the summer, severe weather in Canada is typically related to convective phenomena. Hence the CMC provides forecasts of
parameters such as the high and low level maximum wind positions, humidity variables and various instability indices such as the Lifted
Index. Direct output variables, mainly from our GEM Regional Model, such as the QPF resulting from the model convection scheme,
are also commonly used.
In winter time, weather in Canada is essentially associated with synoptic scale features. The main hazards are related to precipitation
amounts and types (rain, freezing rain, snow) and wind, especially under very cold temperatures or snow (wind-chill, blizzard). Again,
model outputs and derived objective parameters such as precipitation type and wind-chill factor, are the basic tools used by
meteorologists to forecast these adverse conditions.
At the CMC, we had established, on a trial basis, a “hazards desk” to develop a procedure to focus our routine evaluation of NWP and
analyses on the quality of the outputs in relation to severe weather. The results of this trial have been incorporated into the routine shift
duties. We will present examples showing how we use numerical model outputs and derived products to forecast both summer and
winter severe weather.
(25April 2002)
114
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Please tick "" the appropriate box.
116 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
115
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5. Do you prefer117:
Oral presentation


Poster presentation
6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
118
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Bachand ................................. , Denis ..............................................................
Institution:
Canadian Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada ..................................
Address:
2121 North Service Road, Trans-Canada Highway...............................................................
Dorval, Québec,
H9P 1J3
Country:
CANADA
Telephone:
(514) 421- 4633
Telefax:
(514) 421-4679 .........................
Date:
25 April 2002
E-Mail: denis.bachand@ec.gc.ca
Signature: (P. Chen for authors) .........................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
117
118
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
17. Title of the paper: ECMWF forecasting system in support of severe weather prediction
in the medium-range .................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................
22. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof119
Böttger .................. ,Horst ................................ECMWF, U.K. ................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof
Lalaurette .............. ,François ............................ECMWF, U.K. .............../
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof
Marbouty .............. Dominique .........................ECMWF, U.K. ................
23. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display120:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................
24. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page):

ECMWF forecasting system in support of severe weather prediction in the medium-range
Horst Böttger, François Lalaurette and Dominique Marbouty
The ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been running at the Centre for nearly ten years providing the
Member States and Co-operating States with complementary forecast guidance in addition to the products from the high
resolution forecast system (currently T511, 40km reduced Gaussian grid). The EPS provides the tools for estimating
quantitatively the probability of the occurrence of weather events, thus giving early warnings also of severe weather
well in the medium range. The deterministic forecast at the higher resolution is more likely to capture the intensity and
the timing of the event.
The Centre recently started an experimental programme to evaluate the optimal configuration of the
forecasting system in support of severe weather forecasting. Initially, the EPS and the high resolution forecast were run
twice daily from 12 UTC (operations) and from 00 UTC (severe weather test suite) to facilitate early detection of severe
weather. An additional research programme was launched to study the impact of resolution and ensemble size on severe
weather forecasting.
In liaison with its Member States and Co-operating States, the Centre is in the process of developing a range of
new products aiming at the provision of forecast guidance for various applications, such as forecasts of severe storms or
heavy precipitation, i.e. events for which official warnings need to be issued. Forecasts of prolonged periods of
precipitation are of particular interest to hydrologists who need such information typically in the medium-range to
estimate the precipitation fluxes over river catchment areas.
The Centre also plans to provide soon a first set of global probabilistic forecast guidance for strong wind and
heavy precipitation events to the NHMSs of the WMO in support of severe weather forecasting.
23. Do you prefer121:
119
120
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
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,
Oral presentation


Poster presentation

26. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display


Overhead
Powerpoint
27. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
122
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Böttger ................................. , Horst................................................................
Institution:
E C M W F.............................................................................................................................
Address:
Shinfield Park ........................................................................................................................
Reading/Berks. ......................................................................................................................
RG2 9AX ...............................................................................................................................
Country:
United Kingdom ....................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+44 118 9499060 ......................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
+44 118 9869450 ......................
E-mail:
H.Boettger@ecmwf.int ..........................
Date:
29 April 2002 ............................
Signature: ................................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
121
122
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
1. Title of the paper: Severe Weather Forecasting: Post-processing NWP outputs and
guidance production at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. ..............................................
...................................................................................................................................................
2. Author (Co-authors):
Family name
First name
Country
Author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.123
Verret .................... ,Richard ............................ /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Desautels .............. ,Gilles ............................... /CANADA .....................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
Bergeron ............... ,Alain ................................ /CANADA .....................
3. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display124:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

4. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)125:
The Canadian Meteorological Centre routinely produces a suite of guidance products resulting from the application of
post-processing algorithms on NWP model outputs. Specific products have been designed to help meteorologists
address forecast problems related to severe weather both in summer (mainly related to deep convection) and in winter
(mainly driven by synoptic scale systems).
Most of the fields included in these packages are well known. In summer time, in addition to several stability indices
such as the lifted index, forecasts of the buoyant energy field are routinely produced. This field is potentially superior to
other instability indices since all model levels are considered in its calculation. Helicity charts are also produced from
the operational regional model outputs; the use of this field indicating the presence of strong rotation (and related to the
occurrence of tornadoes in scientific literature) has been documented in the scientific community. Post-processing on
the full 3D datasets of a prediction model could be used as a potential indicator of the likelihood and severity of
atmospheric structures in the model representing conditions required for the development of this type of severe weather.
In winter time, forecast temperature profiles and determination of the positive and negative energy areas on forecast
thermodynamic diagrams are used to derive precipitation types charts. Positive energy is defined as the area on a
tephigram where the temperature is above 0C, which is proportional to the available energy to melt frozen hydrometeor
falling through that layer. Conversely, negative energy is the area on the tephigram where the temperature is below 0C.
Negative energy is an indication that liquid water droplets can freeze. It is the energy element that is compared to
reference values to determine the precipitation type to forecast. Several other products are also generated from the NWP
outputs and used by operational meteorologists to assist in severe weather prediction.
123
Please underline the appropriate one.
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
125 If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
124
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In this paper, we will review the underlying concepts and methodologies used to generate the suite of products and
fields routinely produced from the GEM regional forecast model at the CMC.
5. Do you prefer126:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

6. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

7. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr127 Verret ....................................... ,Richard ............................................................
Institution:
Canadian Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada ...................................
Address:
2121 North Service Road, Trans-Canada Highway...............................................................
Dorval, Québec ......................................................................................................................
H9P 1J3..................................................................................................................................
Country:
CANADA ..............................................................................................................................
Telephone:
(514) 421-4683 .........................
Telex:
................................................................
Telefax:
(514) 421-4657 .........................
E-mail:
Richard.Verret@ec.gc.ca .......................
Date:
May 1, 2002 ..............................
Signature: Jean-Guy Desmarais (for authors) .........
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later than 1 May 2002
by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
126
127
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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World Meteorological Organization
CBS Technical Conference on Data Processing and Forecasting Systems
Use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Products at the Canadian Meteorological
Centre (CMC) for Forecasting Severe Weather
Denis Bachand, Henri-Paul Biron, Robert Mailhot, Peter Chen
Operations Branch, CMC
Abstract
Quality forecasts of high impact weather are of prime importance to ensure the safety of the
population when such weather conditions are expected. In Canada, numerical models provide the
basic guidance used by forecasters throughout the country to forecast hazardous weather
conditions. In addition, the public faces numerous non-meteorological hazards which depend, and
some critically, on meteorological conditions which of themselves may not be hazardous. At the
CMC, we produce forecasts of objective parameters, based on model outputs, as guidance to the
regional forecast offices who have the responsibility for forecasting and issuing warnings for
summer and winter severe weather, as well as providing meteorological services to agencies that
are responsible for public safety or authorities on these other hazards (e.g. fires, floods,
infestations, etc.). This paper deals with CMC’s role in forecasting severe weather.
During the summer, severe weather in Canada is typically related to convective phenomena.
Hence the CMC provides forecasts of parameters such as the high and low level maximum wind
positions, humidity variables and various instability indices such as the Lifted Index. Direct output
variables, mainly from our GEM Regional Model, such as the QPF resulting from the model
convection scheme, are also commonly used.
In winter time, weather in Canada is essentially associated with synoptic scale features. The main
hazards are related to precipitation amounts and types (rain, freezing rain, snow) and wind,
especially under very cold temperatures or snow (wind-chill, blizzard). Again, model outputs and
derived objective parameters such as precipitation type and wind-chill factor, are the basic tools
used by meteorologists to forecast these adverse conditions.
At the CMC, we had established, on a trial basis, a “hazards desk” to develop a procedure to focus
our routine evaluation of NWP and analyses on the quality of the outputs in relation to severe
weather. The results of this trial have been incorporated into the routine shift duties. We will
present examples showing how we use numerical model outputs and derived products to forecast
both summer and winter severe weather.
(25April 2002)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
18. Title of the paper: Classification of severe weather in Brazil based on precipitation
analysis
...................................................................................................................................................
23. Author (Co-authors):
KS {D:\106741781.doc}
Family name
First name
Country
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Author: Dr
Silveira.................. ,Reinaldo .......................... /Brazil ............................
24. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display128:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in severe weather
situations. ..........................................................................................................................................

25. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)129:
The identification of severe weather, according to the amount of accumulated precipitation on the
ground, is a challenge task for a forecaster, especially at large continental and tropical areas, as in
Brazil. This paper outlines a simple but efficient procedure to help on tackling this task. The
observed rainfall fields were analysed with hazardous situations for some locations within the
country and the calculated correlation against soil type, draining coefficient, water storage was
estimated, building up a matrix with coefficients of severe or not severe situations. The results will
show, as expected, that 24-hr accumulated precipitation causes adverse impact over different
locations. Besides, the procedure produces a risk index for the region, which is (not) flagged if a
severe situation is (not) observed. The advantage over a simple precipitation map risk is that this
procedure can optimise civil defence actions, by including other parameters which taken into
account further stages of the precipitation cycle.
128
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to attach also an
English translation of the abstract.
129
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24. Do you prefer130:
Oral presentation

Poster presentation

27. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display

Overhead

28. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
First name
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr131 Silveira .................................... , Reinaldo
Institution:
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET .........................................................................
Address:
Eixo Monumental – via S1
Brasilia - DF ..........................................................................................................................
70680-900 ..............................................................................................................................
Country:
Brazil .....................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
+55613431779 ..........................
Telex:
...............................................................
Telefax:
+55613431487 ..........................
E-mail:
rsilve@inmet.gov.br ...............................
Date:
30-04-2002................................
Signature: RBS ........................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later
than 1 May 2002 by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
130
131
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
Please underline the appropriate title.
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CBS TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING
SYSTEMS
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
FORM FOR SUBMISSION OF ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS
( http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/DPFS-TECO-2002/Submission-form.doc )
19. Title of the paper: Verification and interpretation of short range NWP model
forecasts of cool and warm-season tornadic thunderstorms in Australia.
24. Author (Co-authors):
Author: Dr.
Australia
Family name
Mills
First name
Country
Graham ............ /
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
Co-author: Mr, Ms, Dr, Prof.
.............................. , ...................................... / ...................................
25. Topic under which the paper is proposed for presentation/poster display132:

Application of ensemble forecasting systems to real situations: a user perspective ................................... 
User requirements for severe weather forecasting .................................................................................. 
1. Ensemble forecasting - the scientific approach ......................................................................................
2.
3.
4. Approaches used in forecasting severe weather - Use and interpretation of forecast guidance in
severe weather situations. .................................................................................................................... Yes
26. Abstract of the paper (should not exceed half a page)133:
Two severe thunderstorm guidance products based on operational mesoscale NWP
forecasts are provided to forecasters in Australia. The cool season tornadic thunderstorm guidance
(Hanstrum et al 2002), is designed to predict cool season environments in which low-topped
tornadic thunderstorms may occur in southern Australia. The "thunderstorm decision tree"
(Colquhoun and Mills, 1998) is more complex, and aims to discriminate the potential for
thunderstorms to be severe, supercellular, or tornadic, and is more appropriately used in warmer
season, high buoyancy environments. In each case a series of threshold criteria must be satisfied in
order for a "hit" to be forecast at a gridpoint, and both the areas of hits and the contoured fields of
buoyancy, shear, helicity etc which are used in the decision process are also displayed to aid the
forecaster.
Both from an interpretation and a verification perspective, it must be noted that these are
short-range (12-24 hour) forecasts of the environments in which such storms may occur. While it
is clearly desirable to have forecast a hit when, say, a tornado does occur, a forecast is not
necessarily in error because a tornado is not reported, or because a forecast area is much larger
than the area affected by the most damaging storms. A more appropriate verification strategy is to
verify the ingredients, such as buoyancy and shear, which are used in the decision tools against
independent observations. In this case the independent observations are the Australian radiosonde
network.
Examples of the forecast products, their performance in known tornado outbreaks in
132
Please tick "" the appropriate box.
If the abstract is submitted in Russian or Spanish language, the author(s) is (are) kindly requested to
attach also an English translation of the abstract.
133
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recent years in Australia, and their verification against radiosonde data will be presented. As part
of these verifications, the stregths and weaknesses of both the NWP forecasts and the radiosonde
data will be discussed.
Hanstrum,B., G.A.Mills, A.Watson, C.Doswell, and J.Monteverdi, 2002: The cool-season
tornadoes of California and southern Australia. Wea. And Forecasting, in press
Mills,G.A., and J.R.Colquhoun, 1998: Objective prediction of severe thunderstorm environments :
linking a decision tree with an operational regional nwp model. Wea and Forecasting 13, 10781092.
25. Do you prefer134:
Oral presentation
Y
Poster presentation

28. Do you require audio-visual means for your presentation3:
Slides

Computer video display
Y
Overhead
Y
29. Personal data of the author:
Family name,
135
Prof., Dr, Ms, Mrs, Mr
First name
Mills........................................ ,Graham ............................................................
Institution:
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre ..............................................................................
Address:
Box 1289K .............................................................................................................................
Melbourne. 3001....................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................
Country:
Australia.................................................................................................................................
Telephone:
61 3 9669 4582 .........................
Telex:
...............................................................
Telefax:
61 3 9669 4660 .........................
E-mail:
g.mills@bom.gov.au ..............................
Date:
13 May 2002 .............................
Signature: G.A.Mills .................................................
********************
Please, return the completed form as soon as possible so that it will be received not later
than 1 May 2002 by the Secretariat at the following address:
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
World Weather Watch-Basic Systems Department
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 GENEVA 2
Switzerland
Telefax: (+41 22) 730 8021
E-mail: mlaki_m@gateway.wmo.ch
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CBS Technical conference on Data Processing and Forecasting Systems
Cairns, Australia, 2 to 3 December 2002
Small and large-scale flooding scenarios and the methods used in forecasting severe weather -Willness
Minja, Botswana
Abstract
Botswana is a land-locked country in southern Africa. It lies approximately between latitudes 18 and
27ºS and longitudes 20 and 29ºE, a region covered by approximately 582,000 square kilometers with a
population of 1.7 million people (2001 population census).
Botswana’s climate is mainly semi-arid to arid due to its position at the verge of both the tropical and
subtropical weather systems in what is commonly referred to as the horse latitudes. Almost all the
rainfall occurs during the summer months from November to March. Much of the rainfall occurs in
spells of 2 to 4 days with occasions of heavy rainfall amounts accounting for the bulk of the rainfall.
Botswana is therefore prone to a number of weather disasters, particularly droughts but occasionally
floods, veldt fires, epidemics, and pest infestations, among others. Due to the intensity of the rainfall,
flash floods are commonly experienced on small scale but occasionally wide spread flooding at
national scale occurs. For example, a tropical low in early February 2000 and a tropical depression later
that month resulted in floods that ravaged the southern African sub-region, including Botswana. In
Botswana extensive damage occurred to infrastructure, private and public property and the
environment. This disrupted normal family life. Thirteen people lost their lives, while 106,776 were
displaced. The damage to property was estimated at 1.1 billion Pula (US $ 209 million).
In this paper a brief account of both small and large-scale flooding scenarios is highlighted. An account
of the methods used in forecasting severe weather is discussed, which is mainly centered on subjective
analysis of weather charts that are complemented with satellite imagery and numerical products from
advanced satellite and NMHSs of WMO Member countries respectively. Improvements achieved
through regional and global initiatives, such as the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(SARCOF) are emphasized. Interpretation and use of global products, such as those produced by the
European Cetre for Medium Weather Forecasts and the National Center for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) are highlighted. Lastly efforts underway to improve short-term and eventually go to mediumterm weather forecasting are given.
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