Decision Analysis Interviews in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course Mika Marttunen1 and Raimo P. Hämäläinen2 1 Finnish Environment Institute P.O.Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, FINLAND E-mail: mika.marttunen@ymparisto.fi* 2 Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory P.O. Box 1100, FIN-02015 HUT, Finland E-mail: raimo@hut.fi Corresponding author: Tel. +358-9-40300516, fax +358-9-40300590 1 Abstract There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes it is possible to work together towards commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we used interactive multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the regulation policy options and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited by the HIPRE software. Altogether 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews, DAIs, were carried out. Our experiences suggest that DAIs can greatly improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, the interactive use of the methods is vital. It is also essential to tightly integrate the approach into the planning and decision-making process. The project's homepages are publicly available at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/. Key words: Multi-criteria decision analysis, decision analysis interview method, public participation, conflict management, stakeholder values, lake regulation, sustainable management 2 1 Introduction The management of natural resources is nowadays a very challenging and multifaceted task. Modern societies are more diverse, environmentally conscious, and the number of stakeholders is greater than a few decades ago (see e.g. Renn and others 1995, Senecah 2004). New legislation and directives, for instance, the EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EU), set more demanding requirements for environmental planning. Different participatory approaches have been used in several hundreds of environmental planning and management projects, particularly in Europe and North America. The lessons learned provide valuable information and insights for planners and managers (see e.g. Chess and Purcell 1999, Duram and Brown 1999, Susskind and others 1999, Wondolleck and Yaffee 2000, Beierle and Cayford 2002, Connick and Innes 2003,). Stakeholder based planning has proved to be a key to a good and successful public involvement process. Due to the positive experiences, stakeholder processes are being developed beyond the traditional format of public hearings and meetings into methods that involve relatively small groups of people in intensive and collaborative processes (Beierle 2002). Typically, these have an active involvement of stakeholders that work together to identify problems, define objectives, share information, and where possible, develop collectively acceptable solutions which can not be solved individually (see e.g. Wondolleck and Yaffee 2000, Daniels and Walker 2001, Nandalal and Simonovic 2003). The underlying philosophy is to explicitly take into 3 account emotions and social factors because these have a crucial systemic impact on the process (see e.g. Fisher and Shapiro 2005). The understanding of the ecological and social impacts of water course management together with the planning tools have also improved considerably. As a result, we nowadays have many mathematical modelling techniques, decision support tools and GIS applications available (see e.g. Hämäläinen and others 2001, Hämäläinen 2004, Nandalal and Simonovic 2003, Mysiak and others 2005, Mustajoki and others 2006). In complex environmental management problems it is typical to have a large amount of impact information and limited ability of decision-makers to absorb and process it. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a way to manage this extensive amount of information and diversity of opinions in environmental planning processes. The MCDA approach has been explored and applied in several water resource planning and management projects (see e.g. Marttunen and Hämäläinen 1995, Keeney and others 1996, McDaniels and others 1999, Keeney and McDaniels 1999, Hämäläinen and others 2001, Bana e Costa and others 2004, Hostmann and others 2005, Marttunen and Suomalainen 2005). MCDA methods help to improve the quality of decisions involving multiple criteria by making the communication and choices more transparent, explicit, rational and efficient. MCDA is also a tool to enhance individual learning and to support group decisions by eliciting, understanding and managing the stakeholders' values and objectives (Gregory and Keeney 1994, Hobbs and Meier 2000, vonWinterfeldt 2001, Belton and Stewart 2002). So far, there are only few reported cases where MCDA 4 tools have been used in a truly interactive way and linked tightly with a real decisionmaking process (Hämäläinen 1991, Marttunen and Hämäläinen 1995, Gregory and Failing 2002, Ananda and Herath 2003, Marttunen and Suomalainen 2005). Our first experiences from decision analysis interviews with real decision-makers date back to the mid 80's related to a nuclear power plant license decision in the Parliament of Finland (Hämäläinen 1988, 1991). There are recent studies where stakeholders have been satisfied with the use of MCDA methods (Hostmann 2005). On the other hand, in some other cases participants have had problems in understanding the MCDA procedures (Corner and Buchanan 1997, Pykäläinen and others 1999, Bell and others. 2001, Sinkko and others 2004, Bojórquez-Tapia and others 2005). Our results show that by carrying out value tree analysis individually and interactively, it is possible to overcome many problems related to weight elicitation, and to improve the participants' understanding and acceptability of the method. This article describes how we applied the decision analysis interview (DAI) method in the collaborative planning process which aimed to develop a sustainable regulation policy for a large regulated watercourse. The study had several objectives related both to the development of the method and to the achievement of the goals set for the collaborative process. The article is structured in a following way. First, we present our case study, the Lake Päijänne regulation development project. Second, we describe why and how the DAI process was undertaken. Third, we synthesize the results of the interviews. Fourth, we analyze how the DAI method supported the 5 group decision-making and the consensus finding process. Finally, we draw conclusions about the use of the DAI method. 2 The Lake Päijänne regulation development project Lake Päijänne is the second largest lake in Finland with a surface area of 1 100 square kilometers. The lake has an extensive recreational housing development along its shores and there are tens of thousands of recreational users and recreational fishermen. The River Kymijoki with a length of 120 kilometers originates from Lake Päijänne and flows into the Gulf of Finland. The river has twelve power plants which generate about ten percent of the hydropower in Finland. The fields along the banks of the river are particularly prone to flooding. The lake regulation started in 1964 (Table 1). Initially, the primary goals were to increase hydro power production and to decrease flood damage both along the lake and the river. Since the beginning of the regulation, the recreational use of the water course has increased dramatically. Recreational users of the water course have also become much more aware of the environmental effects of the regulation. The most important concern has recently been the negative impact of the regulation on the aquatic ecosystem and the inappropriate water levels of the lake for recreational use during late spring. Already in the mid 1990s, there was a wide consensus about the need to find opportunities to modernize the regulation policy. Provincial federations, fisheries organizations as well as the holder of the regulation license, the Ministry of Forestry 6 and Agriculture, considered this important. As a result, a large and multi-disciplinary development project was carried out during the years 1995-1999 to re-evaluate the regulation policy of the water course. The project’s aim was to collect new information for decision-making by assessing and synthesizing the ecological, economic and social impacts of water level fluctuations, and to develop recommendations which would reconcile different and partly conflicting interests of water course users. In the beginning of the project, there was a strong mistrust especially among the fisheries organizations towards the project and the administrative bodies responsible for it. These included the National Board of Waters and Environment which later became the Finnish Environment Institute, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, which was the license holder of the regulation at that time. In order to gain public support for the project and to improve opportunities for finding a commonly acceptable new regulation policy, we felt that a systems intelligent (SI) approach (Saarinen and Hämäläinen 2004) was clearly needed and therefore an open and participatory planning process was launched. In the SI approach one acknowledges the fact that we, in this case the project and stakeholders in the steering group, are always in a systemic relationship where the process in which interaction is carried out has an essential impact on the outcome. The requirement for the co-operative consensus seeking process is, in fact, also stated in the Finnish Water Act. However, in the project much more attention was paid to stakeholder involvement and public participation than the Act would require. 7 Postal questionnaires, workshops, public hearings and working groups were among the means to learn the opinions and listen to the local people. There were more than 50 working group meetings and more than 100 different people participated in them. In order to collect opinions from the general public, a postal questionnaire was sent to over 2 000 property owners. The most important forum for the stakeholder involvement was the steering group which comprised eighteen representatives. Both public authorities and different interest groups were included (Table 2). The role of the steering group was to discuss and approve the annual working plans of the project. However, the most crucial task was to develop recommendations which would be approved by all the stakeholders involved. In addition to the DAI method, the work of the steering group was supported by mathematical models used to simulate the lake and river hydrology (Hämäläinen and Mäntysaari 2001). The methods were applied complementarily and each of them had their own role in the planning process. In this article, we focus on the results and experiences of the DA interviews (Figure 1). 3 Phases of the process The process was built on an environmental impact assessment (EIA) approach with two new features. First, there was continuous stakeholder involvement and public participation. This is different from the old EIA tradition where people are heard in the beginning and at the end of the process. Second, participation was tightly integrated into the planning process, and planning and participation were developed in parallel in a closely interconnected way. This reflects our vision that the recognition 8 of the systemic nature of participation processes is of crucial importance. A process oriented SI approach helps to change the mental models of the stakeholders from conflict management to collaborative consensus seeking. The process consisted of four main tasks: 1) Framing the problem, 2) Assessing the impacts of the old regulation, 3) Generation and comparison of the regulation options, and 4) Development of recommendations and follow-up measures. The first three tasks were run partly in parallel. Public involvement was important in each task. 3.1 Framing of the problem The scope of the project and the needs for further data collection were determined in the working groups. We created preliminary regulation options and identified attributes which were used to assess the impacts. The attributes were organized hierarchically in a value tree. The project covered the entire water course affected by the regulation, including both Lake Päijänne and the outflowing River Kymijoki. In addition to the revision of the lake regulation policy, the group also decided to consider different non-hydrological mitigation measures. 3.2 Assessing the impacts of the old regulation The project comprised eighteen subprojects which generated an extensive amount of information on the ecological, social and economic attributes. Field studies, various ecological models and expert judgments were used in the impact assessment phase. Numerical estimates of the impacts were given whenever possible. Furthermore, the 9 studies identified constraints for planning i.e. non-acceptable water levels and flow rates for various uses of the water course. 3.3 Generation and comparison of options An evolutionary three-step approach was developed in order to find feasible regulation options. First, each representative of the steering group was interviewed with the DAI method. In the interviews, the data acquired in the environmental impact analysis was combined with the subjective preferences of each participant to evaluate the overall subjective value of each option. The practical implementation and the results of the DAIs are described in sections 4 and 5. In the second step, the consensus finding process was put to the test as the aim was to find generally acceptable objectives in the steering group for regulation policy under the different water scenarios. First, the results of the DA interviews were analysed and discussed in the steering group. These discussions improved the participants' understanding of the other stakeholders' opinions, and also helped to understand the diversity of the opinions. This phase also showed that without a comprehensive analysis which includes all relevant impacts and objectives it was not possible to find a commonly acceptable solution. The first target water levels and flows for Lake Päijänne and the River Kymijoki over the year were determined based on these general objectives. In the third step, a hydrological simulation model was run for the period 1971-1995 in order to study how well the target levels could be achieved during dry, normal and 10 wet hydrological conditions and what kind of ecological, social and economic consequences there would be. The results of each simulation were carefully analysed and targets for water levels and flows were refined if the outcome was not acceptable. The main problem in the development of a feasible regulation policy was to find a balanced strategy which would not cause big losses in hydro power or large increases in flood risks. 3.4 Recommendations and follow-up The most important and challenging task was the composition of a commonly acceptable set of recommendations for the future regulation policy. The analysis of the impacts and the increased awareness of the hydrological dynamics related to the water course regulation provided a very good basis for that. It turned out that the opportunities to diminish the adverse impacts of regulation on the aquatic ecosystem and recreational use were fairly limited. Therefore, we looked for other mitigation measures that could be used. We introduced recommendations about fish stock management, habitat restorations of the shorelines of the lake and rapids in the River Kymijoki and informing of the public. The total number of final recommendations was 31, fifteen of which considered the regulation practice, five dealt with fish stock management, four the restoration of habitats, five the improvements of communication, and two the follow-up of the implementation of the water course regulation and the recommendations. 4 Decision analysis interviews 11 4.1 Objectives and their achievement We had several objectives with the introduction of the DAIs. The most important one was to support the participatory consensus-seeking process by empowering the participants to personally compare regulation options with respect to both intangible and incommensurable impacts. This allowed the stakeholders to evaluate their own priorities and values in this context with the real data. The three main issues addressed were: Which impacts are perceived to be the most important ones? Which are the most preferred and the most disliked components in the regulation strategies? What are the important differences in the opinions between the stakeholders? Furthermore, we had the methodological objective of learning how to avoid behavioral biases (see e.g. Pöyhönen and Hämäläinen 2000, Hämäläinen and Alaja 2003) by a suitable structuring of the problem and description of the impact data. The interviews were preceded by an extensive preparation and testing phase. During this the objectives and attributes were selected, the value tree was structured, the impacts of the regulation options were assessed, and the weighting technique was chosen. Once the preparations were completed the personal and interactive interviews were started. By working individually with each participant, the analyst could ensure that all the issues were clear and no misunderstandings remained (Marttunen and Hämäläinen 1995, Hämäläinen and others 2001). The total number of interviews was twenty and they lasted from three to six hours. The interactive value tree analyses were done with the HIPRE3+ software (www.hipre.hut.fi, Hämäläinen and Lauri 12 1992), the predessor of the WEB-HIPRE software (Mustajoki and others 2004) used in some of the expert group meetings. The structuring of the value tree and the planning of interviews were done in close cooperation with the decision analysis research group in the Systems Analysis Laboratory. For example, there was a separate study on the risks of behavioral weighting biases and on the possible ways to avoid it. We focused particularly on the splitting bias, and how it can be eliminated or reduced by instruction and training (Pöyhönen and Hämäläinen 2000, Hämäläinen and Alaja 2003). Additionally, some preliminary test interviews with a group of people consisting of representatives of the local stakeholders and experts were carried out. Our focus in those preliminary interviews was to ensure that the value tree was adequate and the attributes and the description of the ecological, social and economic impacts were easy to understand. 4.2 Structure of the value tree There are always alternative ways to structure a value tree. We wanted to use a common tree for the analysis of ecological, economic and social aspects for the whole group to facilitate communication of all aspects of the problem. As the structure may have an essential impact on the outcome, we analyzed several value tree options and assessed their applicability before the interviews. The following questions were addressed in particular: How to take into account the fact that hydrological conditions as well as the impacts of lake regulation are very different during the wet and dry years? 13 How to structure the value tree so that the weight elicitation will be easy and the risks of biases are low? How to structure the value tree so that it would best facilitate the consensus finding process? How to describe and combine the impacts in the lake and in the river? The impacts of the regulation depend on the overall water conditions. For instance, in a wet year, due to flood risks the regulation lowers the highest water levels in Lake Päijänne and the highest outflows in the River Kymijoki. On the other hand, during a dry summer, the lowest water levels are raised in Lake Päijänne. In the interviews, one of our aims was to explicitly discuss the consequences of different hydrological conditions. Therefore, the analysis was performed separately for normal, dry and wet water conditions. If this had not been done, the comparison of the impacts of different options would not have been meaningful. Clarity of the analysis was considered to be very important in order to improve the participants' overall understanding of the regulation problem, and to create a basis for the improved communication in the collaborative process. Two alternative approaches were identified for the structuring of the value tree. The first one was a water course focused value tree in which Lake Päijänne and the River Kymijoki were considered separately in different branches (value tree 1, Figure 2). The structure of the first value tree reflected the way many local people saw the problem. They considered the impacts on Lake Päijänne and the River Kymijoki separately. In the second approach (value tree 2, Figure 2), the impacts related to the lake and the river were aggregated. This tree reflected the views of the water 14 authorities who were responsible for the operative implementation of the regulation. In their integrative perspective, there was no difference, for instance, in what part of the water course flood damages occurred. Only the total amount of damages counted. We chose to work with value tree 2 because we wanted to avoid the risk that the structure of the value tree would have become a source of confrontation between stakeholders living around the lake and those along the river. The final value tree is shown in Figure 3. 4.3 Attributes and options A water course regulation has far reaching and multifaceted impacts. To keep the analysis tractable, there was a need to focus only on the most important impacts. Furthermore, the value tree needed to be such that it would be easy to make trade-offs between the economic, social and environmental attributes with a minimal risk of weighting biases (Pöyhönen and Hämäläinen 2000, Hämäläinen and Alaja 2003). The attributes used and their indicators are described in Table 3. Flood damage to houses, agriculture and industry were considered separately. The attribute industry was divided into three subattributes: hydro power production, timber-floating, and the water supply of one paper mill in the lower reach of the River Kymijoki. Commercial recreational activities included rafting and fishing. Recreational use included a number of factors: the usability of the shoreline and piers at summer cottages, swimming on public beaches, usability of harbours, and conditions for boating as well as for recreational fishing. Additionally, the 15 attractiveness of the landscape was included in the recreational attribute. The attribute for recreational use was a monetized measure of the decrease of the usability caused by the deviation of the shoreline from the optimum zone. This zone was defined as the minimum and maximum water levels between which there was no harm to the different uses of the shore. The impacts of the regulation on the ecosystems of the lake and river are quite different. Hence, there were separate attributes for Lake Päijänne and for the River Kymijoki. Extensive field research carried out in Lake Päijänne during the project allowed the use of direct indicators. However, in the River Kymijoki we needed to use proxies, such as flow data on given seasonal dates which were correlated with the ecological impacts. The flow parameters were based on the known or assumed effects on hydrological conditions and river biology (Hellsten and others 2002) In Lake Päijänne, the main impacts were on the zoning of shallow water vegetation, reproduction of northern pike and whitefish, and the nesting of black-throated diver. The studies undertaken in the project showed that the old lake regulation has adverse impacts on all of these species. It was assumed that the harm to fish stocks was adequately compensated by existing fish stockings. However, the attribute "reproduction of fish” was included because the successful natural reproduction is important for many people. In the River Kymijoki, the main ecological attributes were the reproduction of salmonid fish, zoobenthos in the rapids, and shallow water vegetation. These impacts were estimated from seasonal flow rates. 16 We developed three different regulation options for the interviews and they were called Recreational, Ecological and HydroFlood. The old regulation policy was used as a reference in the measurement of the impacts. In the Recreational option the water level of Lake Päijänne was kept as stable as possible over the whole year. In the Ecological option water levels were managed in such a way that the harmful ecological impacts were minimized. This option resembled the original natural water level fluctuations. In the HydroFlood option the primary objectives were the maximization of hydro power generation and minimization of flood risks. These options were thought to cover the range of possibilities and thus they provided a good basis for discussion in the steering group. These initial options were somewhat exaggerated and they were not feasible as such. 4.4 Performance of options and attribute weighting In the interviews the same value tree was applied for the normal, dry and wet water year . The analyst described the impacts of various regulation options and the impacts of the options were discussed. The participants had an opportunity to change these ratings if they thought that the ratings did not match their views. This opportunity led to differences particularly in the ranking of the options with regard to recreational use. Some participants emphasized the importance of spring water levels as they have caused widest dissatisfaction among the users. For them the best option with respect to recreational use was the Ecological option. On the other hand, many participants thought that water levels during summer are most important as the number of active recreational users is high and also because the summer period is longer than the spring period. In their ranking the Recreational option was the best one. 17 After analyzing and refining the ratings, the relative weights of the attributes were elicited. We used the SWING procedure (von Winterfeld and Edwards 1986) where the most important attribute is given 100 points and the other attributes are given lower points reflecting their relative importance from the viewpoint of the participant (Table 4). The last phase of the interviews was the evaluation of the results. Following the interviews and analysis of the results, a steering group meeting was arranged where all the preference models of stakeholders were analyzed and the differences were discussed in collaboration with the stakeholders. 5 Results of the decision analysis interviews The value tree interviews produced a large amount of information. Since the data was in a structured format it was easy to use in the further analysis. However, there were many ways to do the analysis. We tried to present the results so that this would support the learning and consensus seeking process in the steering group. We illustrated the differences and similarities in the stakeholders' opinions by presenting both the individual weights for each stakeholder as well as the average weights for each stakeholder group. We also identified common interests or shared modes of thinking by grouping the participants' opinions into three categories. There were several reasons why we did not calculate the average preferences of all the participants. We wanted to emphasize the subjectivity of the preferences and show that there were variations in the weights even between people belonging to the same stakeholder group. In the analysis of large data sets, one is often tempted to aggregate 18 data by taking averages. Using average weights distorts the information. For example, if one stakeholder group has assigned a very high weight (0.7) and another a very low weight (0.1) to an attribute, the average of these two weights (0.4) would not represent the opinion of either stakeholder group. One important reason for not using the averages was that, in the steering group, different stakeholder groups were not represented in a balanced way. There were six representatives of fisheries and only one representative of agriculture. Taking an average of the individual weights would have meant that the opinions of the representatives of fisheries would have been six times more important than the opinions of the representative of agriculture (see Table 2). The Ministry of Forestry and Agriculture had been responsible for the nomination of the steering group. Several representatives from the fisheries organizations were invited as they were recognized to be key stakeholders having both power and familiarity with the problem. In the past they also had been very active proponents of development of the old regulation policy. The stakeholders perceived the importance of ecological, social and economic impacts in very different ways. For instance, in the case of a normal water year the weights given to the attribute aquatic ecosystem varied from 0.1 to 0.65 (Figure 4). The lowest weights were given by representatives of the power companies, agriculture and the permit holder of the regulation license. Differences in the attribute weights between the stakeholder groups and even within one stakeholder group were also considerable. We divided the stakeholders into three groups based on the weights given to the attributes for the normal water year (Table 5). There were big differences in the 19 attribute weights of different groups (Figure 6). However, the attribute weights between different groups had similar trends. In each group, the wetter the water conditions were in the spring, the higher weights were given to flood prevention and hydro power generation (Figure 7). In the wet spring the weight of these objectives were about two times higher than in the dry spring. These results suggested that the strongest disagreements were associated with the normal and slightly wet springs. The differences in the priority scores of the regulation options were considerably smaller than the variation in the attribute weights (Figure 5). In a normal water year, the Ecological option was the most preferred one for most of the stakeholders. This can be explained by the fact that the objectives of the attributes in terms of water levels and flows were somewhat aligned. For instance, in the wet water year hydro power, flood prevention and recreation all have the same objective: to decrease the highest water levels and flows. Hence, different combinations of these attribute weights resulted in almost the same overall priority scores for the options. The results of the DAIs were discussed in the steering group. The most important objectives for the development of a new regulation strategy were identified under different water scenarios based on these discussions (Table 6). Furthermore, these prioritizations were used to set targets for water levels and flows over the year. The development of sustainable regulation policy was a laborious process as described in section 3.3. Many options were developed and analysed before a balanced strategy was found. A hydrological simulation model was applied to get a good understanding of the impacts in different hydrological conditions. 20 6 Discussion 6.1 The DAI method The DAIs were tightly integrated into the planning procedure and into the work of the steering group. The interviews were carried out when most of the impact assessment studies were completed as we wanted to efficiently utilize and process the results of the field studies and other surveys. We paid special attention to the process and the timing of the DAIs. We thought that it was important to foster the participants' learning before starting the discussions about new regulation policy options. The feedback questionnaire and discussions in the steering group suggested that the method improved the stakeholders' understanding of the problem in several ways. It provided a systematic framework for analysis and discussions. The method encouraged stakeholders to study their own values and preferences and helped them to understand the key trade-offs. Moreover, they learned a lot about the objectives and preferences of the other stakeholders'. Thus, the DAIs enabled the participants to consider the situation from a broader perspective. In our complex case it was especially important that all the stakeholders started to share the need to consider the impacts in the whole water course. A common value tree was successfully established even though the stakeholders' concerns were very different. We believe that the careful development of the value tree and the consideration of the different water conditions greatly increased the stakeholders' learning. 21 Before participating in this process it was common that people criticized the existing lake regulation policy either from the perspective of Lake Päijänne or from that of the River Kymijoki only. It was also usual to take into account only very few impacts. Many stakeholders said that, after the interviews, they no longer had an anchoring to their previous rigid opinions because of the wider understanding and trust generated by the process. Naturally, this is a precondition for reaching a compromise solution. On the other hand, there is also a risk that participants anchor the results of the MCDA analysis. This phenomenon was not recognized in our case. We believe that this was due to the DAIs being undertaken in the middle of the four years project and with preliminary options. Consequently, there was sufficient time for discussion and reflection after the DAIs. The personal DAIs were a good learning process also for the analyst himself helping him to understand the problem as a system consisting of people with different opinions, interconnections, and preferences. Furthermore, it helped him to clearly understand the thinking and needs of the stakeholders. It was obviously not enough to focus on the environmental, social and economic data only. Thus, the DAIs helped the analyst to bear in mind different viewpoints and to include them when the proposals for regulation recommendations were developed. The interviews were also helpful for the analyst in getting familiar with the participants and building trust in the steering group. This can be the most important factor contributing to the success of the whole project. For similar conclusions see e.g. McDaniels and Trousdale (1999). When the project manager also works as the analyst he or she must be able to remain and refrain 22 from showing personal opinions regarding the importance of the impacts of the options. Otherwise the trustworthiness of the process can be lost. 6.2 The influence of the DAIs on the outcome of the project The participants evaluated the role of the DAIs very positively. The questionnaire showed that almost all, 86 %, of those participants who answered (n=13) agreed fully or almost fully that the interviews improved their overall picture of the problem. There was also almost unanimous agreement that the HIPRE analysis helped stakeholders to express their own values and preferences (93 % of the participants). The method was also considered simple and transparent. People understood well both the method and the results presented by the HIPRE software (93 % of the participants). From the participant's points of view a great advantage of the interviews was that it gave an equal opportunity to express his/her opinions to each representative of the steering group. The careful discussions during the DAIs and instant feedback of model results were also considered very important. Our observations in the steering group supported these positive findings. However, reaching a consensus on commonly accepted regulation policy in the steering group was not easy. It required intense discussions during which some representatives emphasized the importance of the DAIs as a way of softening their strong stands and opening opportunities for compromises. These opinions supported our own observations that the DAIs improved the stakeholders' ability to understand better the problem and to see the situation through the eyes of the other stakeholders, too. 23 In Finland the Environmental court confirms all revisions in the existing regulation license. In this case the court received only one objection regarding the proposed revision of the regulation policy. This is quite exceptional and a very good result as water course regulation projects typically are very controversial. The Environment court process generally lasts a long time. It took five years before the final approval was given from the Supreme Administrative Court. No changes to the proposed regulation scheme were made during the court process. This suggests that the collaboration process accommodated well the different interests. The successful outcome was the consequence of several positive elements in the planning process supporting participation, social learning and building of trust. Here the DAIs were in important role. The decision-making was based on a comprehensive set of data due to the exhaustive impact assessments. The trust toward the neutrality of the project was confirmed among local stakeholders during the project due to its openness. The long and interactive process helped the participants to give up narrow and single-minded goals, and it also supported the participants' commitment to the joint problem solving. They recognized that there are possibilities for joint gains in the development of the lake regulation. Our experiences suggest that the quality of the planning process had an essential influence on how acceptable the outcome is from the stakeholders' point of view. After the collaborative process they were willing to accept the outcome which did not meet all their hopes. 7 Conclusions 24 In this article we have presented a collaborative and structured approach for developing a sustainable regulation policy to a large water course. The decision analysis interview method, as described in this paper, is an efficient tool in collaborative planning processes. In our case, the aim of the DAIs was to create and support a joint consensus-seeking process for finding a good ecologically and socially feasible regulation policy. The interviews generated structured information about the stakeholders' values and preferences. This information was later used when the objectives in the different water conditions were prioritized. This allowed us to develop a balanced regulation policy which fulfilled these objectives. Our experience suggests that the DAI method can support and improve the quality and efficiency of participation by enhancing the integration of the stakeholders' values into the planning process, facilitating discussions, improving transparency and aiding learning. In our case, all these factors strengthened the stakeholders' commitment to the whole process. The DAIs also improved the stakeholders' ability to understand the problem better and helped to see the situation through the eyes of the other stakeholders. The DAI method lets every participant have a voice and involves them explicitly. It was probable that this produced the positive systemic effects on the stakeholder group as a whole. They understood the problem as a complex whole with physical, environmental, social and emotional elements, as well as their own role in it. Thus the method represented a systems intelligence approach to participation (see Saarinen and Hämäläinen 2004). We believe that it is important for the environmental management community at large to learn to design and implement such interaction processes. 25 Our results show that by carrying out value tree analysis individually and interactively it is possible to overcome many problems related to weight elicitation, and to improve the participants' understanding and the acceptability of the method. The interactive approach enabled the analyst to ensure that attribute weights given by stakeholder were in accordance with his/her real opinions lowering the risk of biases (Hämäläinen and Alaja 2003). The opportunity to evaluate and analyze the outcome immediately fostered learning and made the analysis more interesting for the stakeholders. It also improved the participant's satisfaction and trust toward the method. Stakeholders do not trust processes where they have limited or no chance to analyze how their inputs affect the subsequent results. In many environmental management projects, public involvement, planning and decision-making have remained separate processes and therefore data and knowledge gathered during the projects have not been utilized efficiently enough. We believe that the DAI method is a very useful tool in order to facilitate information exchange between experts and stakeholders, and to narrow the gap between participatory and planning processes. We also think that in complex environmental projects the steering groups are ideal forums for applying the method. The steering group has a great need for support in its task to systematically structure and process large amounts of information and stakeholder values. The participants are often also committed and highly motivated to use new methods in order to clarify their own values and preferences and to assess how these can affect the desirability of different options. Today we still lack experts and consultants in the field of water resources management who can professionally use MCDA methods. The publication of 26 successful real-life applications and learning experiences are needed to promote the use of these methods in practice. The interactive implementation of the MCDA approach is fairly laborious and demanding. Therefore, we strongly emphazise that the users of the MCDA methods and experts of these methods should work in close co-operation. Collaboration with an MCDA expert is always valuable for the project manager for continuously improving and developing his skills. The following conclusions summarize our major findings: The full potential of the MCDA methods has thus far not yet been recognized sufficiently among the researchers and practitioners of environmental management and public participation. 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The weights of the "ECO"-alternative in the normal water year. Figure 6. The average weights for main attributes in the different groups (normal water year). Figure 7. The proportion of the weights for the hydro power and flood protection attributes in various water years. 35 Public participation EXPRESSED NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES Impact assessment COLLABORATIVE LEARNING PROCESS CONSENSUS SOLUTION VALUE TREE ANALYSIS Methods supporting multi-objective decision making Figure 1. 36 VALUE TREE I LAKE PÄIJÄNNE ATTRIBUTES ALTERNATIVES GOAL RIVER KYMIJOKI ATTRIBUTES VALUE TREE II ATTRIBUTE 1 LAKE PÄIJÄNNE ALTERNATIVES GOAL ATTRIBUTE 2 RIVER KYMIJOKI ATTRIBUTE 3 Figure 2. 37 Figure 3. 38 E2 E1 E3 C E2 C R U 6 5 4 3 2 1 E1 C SH R U AT N AT N VI N O PR VI N O PR VI N O PR FI SH FI SH FI SH FI SH FI SH W ER FI PO R I R BE M AG 5 R AT E 4 3 R AT E R 2 R AT E AT E 1 R AT E TI W W W W W AF M M N C E2 N C E3 N AT U R E1 N AT U R E2 VI PR O H 6 H 5 H 4 H 3 H 2 H 1 N C E1 VI PR O VI PR O FI S FI S FI S FI S FI S FI S ER R R I BE W PO TI M AG ER 5 ER 4 AT W AT W ER 3 ER 2 AT W AF ER 1 AT W AT W Weight 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Figure 4. 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Figure 5. 39 0,45 GROUP1 GROUP2 0,4 GROUP3 0,35 0,3 Weigth 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 FLOOD DAMAGE INDUSTRY ENTERPREUNERIAL ACTIVITY RECREATIONAL USE AQUATIC ENVINRONMENT Figure 6. 80 GROUP1 70 GROUP2 GROUP3 Proportion of total weight (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DRY SPRING NORMAL SPRING WET SPRING 40 Figure 7. 41 TABLES Table 1. The milestones of Lake Päijänne regulation. Time Event 1910-1950 The planning of the lake regulation starts. Several alternative regulation schemes were considered. 1956 The permit for Lake Päijänne regulation was confessed. 1964 The regulation of Lake Päijänne started. 1970-1980’s There were diverging opinions concerning the compensation of the losses for fisheries and relatively strong disagreements between regional water authorities regarding regulation policy during flood events. 1994 Revision of the Finnish Water Act enabled the revision of old regulation policies having significant adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystem or its use. 1994-1995 Permit holder of the regulation license, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, started a development project to find out possibilities to improve the regulation policy. Fisheries organizations made an initiative that new rules of the Water Act should be applied in that project. 1995-1998 18 subprojects to assess the ecological, social and economic impacts of the regulation were undertaken. 1997 20 members of the steering group were interviewed with the help of HIPRE model. 1999 Over 30 recommendations to mitigate the harmful impacts of regulation were formulated and accepted unanimously in the project's steering group. 2001 Based on these recommendations Regional Environment Agency of South Eastern Finland submitted an application to the Water Court in order to revise the regulation license. 42 2002 Water Court made a decision where the application was accepted without any major changes. All in all five appeals against the decision of Water Court. Most of them considered compensation of fish stocks and hydro power losses. There were one appeal toward the proposed new regulation policy. 2004 Court of Appeal made a decision which did not change the proposal for the new regulation policy. The obligation of monitoring the harmful impacts of regulation was added. Due to the appeals the process was taken to the Supreme Court of Finland. 2006 Supreme Court of Finland gave its decision. The appeals of hydro power companies were rejected. The new regulation policy was put into action. Table 2. The list of the organizations represented in the steering group. Organization Abbreviation Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (1 representative) MAF Water management authorities: Regional Environment WATER1-5 Centres of Central Finland, South-Eastern Finland, Birka land (5 representatives ) Provincial federations of Central Finland, South-Eastern PROVINCE1-3 Finland, Päijät-Häme (3 representatives) Timber Floating Association (1 representative) TIMBER Hydro power companies: Regulation Committee of Lake POWER Päijänne (1 representative) The Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest AGRI Owners (1 representative) 43 Fisheries authorities: Development Centre of Employment and Economic FISH1-2 Häme and Central Finland (2 representatives) Recreational fishermen association (1 representative) FISH3 Local fisheries organization: North and South Päijänne FISH4-5 fisheries areas (2 representatives) Päijänne Nature Centre (1 representative) NATURE1 The environmental protection authority of Heinola town (1 NATURE1-2 representative) 44 Table 3. The attributes and their minimum and maximum values in different water conditions. 1 Flood 1a Agriculture: Damage (€) 1b Building and other structures: Damage (€) Criterion Dry spring (min/max) Normal year (min/max) Wet spring (min/max) 1a 0/0 0/70 000 0/200 000 1b 0/0 0/220 000 0/126 000 2 Industry 2a Hydro power: Difference in value of electricity produced compared to non-regulated status (1000 €) 2b Timber floating: Number of days when the flow is inappropriately high (days) 2c: Water supply: Number of days when the flow is less than the critical level of Sunila paper mill (days) Criterion Dry spring (min/max) Normal year (min/max) Wet spring (min/max) 2a 100 /1 250 2 120 / 3 430 -200 /630 2b 51/51 0/31 0/0 2c 0/0 0/20 0/0 3 Entrepreneurial activity 3a Professional fishing: Winter draw-down (m) 3b Rafting: Number of days when the flow is inappropriately low (days) Criterion Dry spring (min/max) Normal year (min/max) Wet spring (min/max) 3a 0.08/0.50 0.15/0.42 0.26/0.58 30/30 3b 102/142 0/41 4 Recreational use 4a Lake Päijänne: Negative impacts caused by changes in water level (1000 €) 4b River Kymijoki: Negative impacts caused by changes in water level (1000 €) Criterion Dry spring (min/max) Normal year (min/max) Wet spring (min/max) 4a 150 /300 235 /420 400 /780 4b 140 / 265 140 /220 210 /230 5 Aquatic environment 5a Lake Päijänne 5aa Macrophytes: Area of dense reed vegetation (km2) 5ab Fish: Reproduction of pike, number of recruits compared non-regulated status (%) 5ac Birds: Percentage of nests of black-throat diver damaged by a raising water level (%) 5b River Kymijoki 5ba Macrophytes (area): Difference between max. and min. flows during growing season compared to non-regulated status (%) 5bb Zoobenthos (species richness): Minimum flow during the growing season compared to non-regulated status (%) 5bc Salmonids (reproduction): Decrease in the flow during the egg hatching time compared to non-regulated status (m3/s) Criterion Dry spring (min/max) Normal year (min/max) Wet spring (min/max) 5aa -/21/30 -/5ab 55/87 26/48 83/122 5ac 100/100 99/55 0/51 45 5ba 5bb 5bc -/-/81/112 53/113 79/95 0/425 -/-/34/94 46 Table 4. Example of the information about the impacts and weight elicitation procedure presented in the material which was sent to the stakeholders before the interviews. Maximum value Minimum value Range of impact Agriculture, damage (€/year) 70 000 0 70 000 Buildings, damage (€/year) 130 000 0 130 000 Question: In which criterion the range of impact is more significant? Give 100 scores to criterion which you evaluate more important. Assess the importance of less significant criterion by giving scores between 0-99. 50 means that the importance of the criterion is half of the more important criterion. If you consider that the impact ranges of both attributes are of equal importance, then give score 100 to both criteria. Your score Agriculture Eg. 40 Buildings Eg. 100 47 Table 5. The division of stakeholders into three cluters based on their opinions of the significance of the impacts in the normal water year. Cluster 1 Cluster 2 General Emphasis on the original Emphasis description of objectives environmental and recreational the group (flood prevention, hydro of regulation Cluster 3 on the Emphasis on environmental values and hydro power values of Lake Päijänne power) Opinions on Benefits regulation Lake regulation has significant Lake the much more important than harmful impacts on aquatic significant its harmful impacts environment and recreational disadvantages. impacts of the of regulation regulation has both advantages and use in spring. The level of flood prevention and hydro power production can be diminished. Opinions on Old regulation relatively Ecological was Alleviation of harmful impacts the regulation good, preferred to old regulation both of old regulation only to level alternatives improvements only in the in the normal and dry years. which does not significantly opportunities to option dry years reduce the benefits of regulation Stakeholders 4 stakeholders (permit 7 stakeholders (fisheries 4, 7 belonging to holder of the regulation regional authority 2, water authority group license, authority) 3, regional authority, association, floating agriculture, water authority) stakeholders (water fisheries 2, nature protection authority) Table 6. The prioritization of objectives set for the regulation practice in different water conditions. The most important objectives are darkest. 48 Objectives Dry spring Normal Spring Wet spring Hydro power Flood prevention Recreational use Environment Fisheries Timber floating 49 50