BORTAS B (2011)
BORTAS Meteorological and Air Quality Forecast for Halifax region (Boundary
Layer and Free Troposphere)
Issued: Thursday, July 21, 2011 AM/PM: AM
Issued by: David Waugh
Valid Today, Tonight and Friday with an outlook for Saturday
Quick overview: Moderate to high boreal biomass CO decreasing to low
tonight and then increasing Friday night to high. Moderate potential LRT
aerosols becoming high tonight and dropping to moderate Friday afternoon.
Synopsis/Synoptic Discussion:
NRCan website shows a more concentrated area of fires continuing ovr NWrn Ontario.
Scattered fires in coastal Carolinas, Nrn Florida, with larger fires in New Mexico – a
few in Arizona and Utah and SW corner of S Dakota. NOAA’s HMS indicates broad
smoke plume from eastern MB and NW ON flowing SE and covering most of srn ON
New England and Southern Maritimes.
At 500 hPa broad upr low over nrn BC to nrn MB – weak ridge from Gt Lks ovr NW
ON. Upr Low ovr Nrn QC movg East. Flo nearly zonal currently and remains so thru
into Sat.
At surface weak frontal system and line of instability E-W across central Mrtms
currently shifts E to lie S of NS and over Ern tip of NL on Friday afternoon. SW flo tdy
at sfc stngthns overnight then decreases Fri.
GEOS-5 output based on 21th 00UTC run has moderate to high CO below 4 km
currently decreasing this afternoon and overnight to Low. Low on Friday increasing to
moderate to high below 4 km Friday night.
GEM-MACH has increasing to moderate potential LRT anthropogenic aerosols today
then increasing to high tonight and dropping to moderate on Friday afternoon.
Lightning – Currently offshore S of Nfld and an area SW of Quebec City - these areas
will shift E today with development over NB this afternoon, pushing across NS
overnight. Some S of NS on Friday.
Today:
Increasing cloud this afternoon with patchy coastal fog. Moderate to high boreal
biomass CO below 4 km decreasing this afternoon. Moderate potential LRT aerosols.
Tonight:
Mainly cloudy with coastal fog. Scattered showers and risk of a thundershower later
this evening and overnight. Coastal fog patches. Becoming Low potential boreal
biomass CO. Low potential LRT anthropogenic aerosols.
Friday:
A mix of sun and cloud. Scattered evening shower or thundershower. Low potential
boreal biomass CO. High potential LRT anthropogenic aerosols becoming moderate in
the afternoon.
Outlook for Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High boreal biomass CO below 4 km.
Low potential LRT of anthropogenic aerosols.
Contact: David Waugh
Contact number: 426-9136 / 292-2972