FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORE TO THE
EUROPEAN UNION: DIMENSION AND FEATURES OF INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATORY FLOWS AND IMMIGRANT POPULATIONS
by Alessio Cangiano° and Salvatore Strozza°°
° University of Rome “La Sapienza” - Department of Demography
Tel. (+39) 0649919511 – E-mail: alessio.cangiano@uniroma1.it
°° University of Naples “Federico II” - Department of Statistics
Tel. (+39) 0812537468; E-mail: strozza@unina.it; salvatore.strozza@uniroma1.it
Over the past two decades, international migrations patterns in Europe have undergone
considerable changes. These are basically due to the changing role of some Southern European
countries (Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal) - transformed from sending to receiving countries - to
the decline of migrations within the European Union, to the increase of immigration coming from
Less Developed Countries (LDCs) and, more recently, to the emerging of significant migration flows
from Eastern Europe after the fall of the communist regimes.
Within the European migration system the Mediterranean basin represents a geo-political region
of crucial interest. Aim of this paper is to provide an overall picture of the migratory movements
which occurred from the Mediterranean Southern and Eastern shore to countries of the European
Union in recent years, trying to focus on the socio-economic imbalances which may have acted as
determinants of these population movements. The work is organized into three subsequent sections.
First, we provide a descriptive picture of recent migration trends to the European Union using the
different kinds of available statistical data. Secondly, we try to set the population movements at issue
in a more global context, considering demographic and socio-economic imbalances between origin
and destination countries. Finally, we address the issue of detecting the possible factors acting at a
macro level as determinants of the observed migratory flows.
The time perspective is limited. Only recent trends are covered, that is the period since 1980 or
1985 – depending on data availability. In a first level of analysis, the geographical focus of the study
is on the whole area surrounding the Mediterranean Basin from which migratory flows directed
towards the European Union originate. Three major regions – and some sub-regions – are
considered:
 the European Union, with the further distinction between old and new immigration countries –
the latter being Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece;
 the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), excluding the Russian Federation and the other ex-soviet
republics and including Albania, the countries of the Former Republic of Yugoslavia and the nine
Eastern European candidates;
 the Third-Countries of the Mediterranean (TCM), comprising Turkey, the Middle-East countries
of emigration (excluding Israel and including Iran and Iraq) and Northern Africa.
1. Recent migration trends from CEE and TCM countries to the European Union
In general, since the sending countries suffer from a lack of reliable statistical information, the
use of data collected in the receiving countries is an inescapable choice, even though these data too
are not exempt from problems of coverage and reliability. This study relies primarily on data from
two international sources: the Eurostat’s New Cronos Database and the OECD-SOPEMI report.
Where important data were missing from these sources, we tried to collect them from national
sources or used other authors’ estimates. The criterion of citizenship remains a common denominator
offering a basis for comparison of migration data in Europe, although access to citizenship varies
significantly across countries. However, because of the wide differences among data collection
systems at national level, a comparative analysis of the information provided by the available data
sources represents the essential precondition for the use of international migration statistics. A brief
overview of the main problems of comparability – arising from the different data collection
techniques employed at national level – is provided, using as the basis for the discussion the results
of the Eurostat MED-MIGR programme and some well-known reviews of sources, concepts and
definitions [Salt et al., 1994; Bilsborrow et al., 1997].
Despite the above-mentioned limits, which remain important, official statistics enables us to draw
an overall picture of recent international migration trends. The combined analysis of foreign
population stocks and flows allows to stress the main characteristics of regular migrations. The main
recent evidences are briefly discussed in the text:
 All EU-countries have become immigration countries. For most of them the annual gain due to
the net migration is much higher than the natural increase, that in some cases has a negative sign.
 In addition to the positive net migration inflows, other important factors to explain the growing
number of foreigners are the higher fertility of most groups compared to the nationals and their
young age structure, which involve a surplus of the number of births of foreign citizens relative to
the number of deaths.
 The high number of naturalisation – partly due to permissive laws – involving some groups of
foreigners in the old immigration countries (e.g. Maghrebian in France, Moroccan and Turkish in
the Netherlands) determines a reduction in the overall number of foreigners de iure. More
recently, also some countries which in the past adopted restrictive criterions in the acquisition of
citizenship approved more permissive norms (e.g. Germany), with possible future reduction
effects on the stock of foreigners.
 The distribution of visas by reason of entry is rather uneven across European countries. As a
consequence of more stable settlements and of restrictive labour migration policy, family
reunification has become the most important reason of entry in the old immigration countries, and
is growing of importance in the new ones.
 After the tightening of the asylum rules by the national authorities, the share of asylum seekers on
the total inflows declined sharply (from 25% in the beginni9ng of the 1990s to 15% in 2000).
Their distribution is highly concentrated in a limited number of member countries. Three quarters
of them can be found in Germany, the UK (more recent), the Netherlands and in Belgium.
 European countries show a very different “geography” in the origin of immigrants. As a general
rule, immigration from Mediterranean countries is of growing importance. Despite of most
predictions emigration from Central and Eastern Europe, although significantly increased, has not
taken the form of the frightened “invasion”. The increasing number of origins and destinations
seems to imply a reduction in the importance of the historical, political and economic links
between origin and destination areas related to the colonial heritage of the immigration countries.
In this perspective, it is interesting to assess to what extent the consolidation of the relationships
between the EU and its Mediterranean partners could influence the amount and direction of
migratory flows.
 As a consequence of closing the legal gates on the way to Europe the importance of the
unauthorized migration is increasing. This especially holds true for the new countries of
immigration, as showed by the regularisation programmes in Italy, Spain and Greece. Most of
unauthorized migrants come from Morocco, Albania and other Mediterranean and Eastern
European countries in pursuit of a job in a well established informal economy.
2. Demographic and socio-economic imbalances between the European Union and the
Mediterranean sending countries
In order to understand properly the forces determining the strong migratory pressure on the
European Union boundaries, it is advisable to examine these population movements within the
scenery where they originate. The different stages of development reached by origin and destination
countries can not be ignored if we want to evaluate the role of international migration within a larger
framework, characterized by dramatic changes in the economy and the society of sending and
receiving countries.
With the aim of comparing the economic and demographic situation in the region of origin an
destination and following a macro approach, a set of indicators considered in two different periods
(the early 1980s and the end of 1990s) has been selected. They are assumed to be suitable to
represent the stage of development from the demographic (e.g. total fertility rate, life expectancy at
birth, the percentage of urban population, the annual growth rate of working age population, ecc.),
social (participation of women in the labour market, average years of schooling, per capita number of
televisions ecc.) and economic points of view (the percentage of workers in agriculture, the per
capita Gross Domestic Product in dollars, the share of trade and foreign investments on GDP, ecc.).
The source for the statistical material can be found above all in the United Nations [2002],
International Labour Organization [1997] and World Bank publications. Indicators have been
selected also considering the immediateness to find, into international databases, the correspondent
values for all analyzed countries in both examined periods.
The resulting picture shows a net contrast between the Northwest and the Southeast with regard
to economic wellbeing. In a demographic perspective, the Mediterranean basin represents a highly
heterogeneous area in which the various countries are characterised by different stages reached
throughout the long road of demographic transition. The countries on the northern shore are
experiencing for years life expectancies higher than 75 years and fertility rates below the
replacement level (2.1 children per woman), so that their population is ageing and will soon decline.
The countries on the southern and eastern shores are still behind in the transition process, though at
different stages. Their population-growth rates, though falling, are still around 1.5-2.5 per cent a year
(with populations doubling every 30-45 years) and their labour force is growing fast and very young,
both for a demographic surplus and for the increasing female labour participation.
Economic differences are not less striking. Just to make some examples, the average disposable
income per person in France or Italy is more than six times that in Morocco, Egypt, Syria or Jordan.
Real wage differences are of the order of tenfold. Unemployment, which in the 1960s was not much
different from European levels, has been increasing and is forecast to increase further – moreover, in
countries without a welfare system. Furthermore, all these push factors operating in the sending
regions are associated with quantitative and qualitative needs emerging on our own labour markets,
characterized by the disappearance of traditional jobs, the expansion of the services sector, a strong
demand for low-level vocational qualifications and the growth of informal-labour markets.
3. The macro determinants of international migrations across the Mediterranean: an empirical
approach
In substance, there seems to be no doubt that economic and demographic-related variables play a
vital role in the international migration scenario. The classical pull and push factors retain their
importance. On the one hand, there is a high labour demand, especially in the services sector, due to
the segmentation of the labour market in the developed countries with low population growth. On the
other hand, the growing and considerable labour supply due to demographic (because of a past with
very high fertility), economic (with the modernization of agriculture) and social reasons (with the
new status of women) of many developing countries.
In the last section of this paper, analysing the relationships between net migration rates and a set
of selected indicators mirroring the demographic, social, political and economic situation of sending
and receiving countries, we intend to make a contribution to the empirical knowledge about the
macro determinants of international migration in the Mediterranean area. Our empirical approach
will be based on the econometric studies using aggregate data reviewed in Bauer and Zimmermann
[1995] and on the more recent works by Rotte and Vogler [1998; 1999] and Hatton and Williamson
[1998; 2001].
The kind of data analysed (panel data, i.e. a combination of cross section and time series data)
entails using a regression model whose form (OLS, Fixed effects, Random effects) will be specified
with the support of statistical tests for panel data (Hausman, Breusch-Pagan). Explanatory variables
will be selected looking at the theoretical and empirical results of the literature on the causes of
international migration [Massey, 1993], as well as on the basis of the analysis developed in the
previous section. The main assumption that we intend to test is the existence of an inverse u-shaped
relationship between development and migration.
Sources
EUROSTAT, New Cronos Database, Luxembourg
OECD (various editions), Trends in international migration, SOPEMI annual report, OECD, Paris.
UNITED NATIONS, World Population Prospects, the 2002 revision, Washington
WORLD BANK, World Development Indicators, Database on CD-ROM
INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE (1997), Economically Active Population 1950-2010, Geneve
US CENSUS BUREAU, on-line international database at: www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html
BARRO R.J. and LEE J.W. (2000), “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and
Implications”, Working Paper n.42, Centre for International Development at Harvard University,
Cambridge, USA.
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