Agenda 15 January 2009
1. The overall plan and scope
 Do anomalies for significant events over the Midwestern United States similar
to that conducted for eastern and western United States
 eXcel 65K line need to break in half for eXcel.
2. The current data and methods to process
 need to load into some sort of database or system to sort and query
o loaded data into eXcel split data January 2009done.
o Binning Mark has the air files done, will do air,hgt,q, and pwat
o Suzanne will do u,v winds.
o Barb will do MSLO  note PWAT and MSLP is not used in MTOTAL
o Format for top 10 events need dates/times 00Z01JAN2009
 need stats and return periods via eXcel.
 Rich can make images if files provided with GrADS date
o 00Z01JAN2009  HHZDDMONYYYY
3. Case and event identification from the data
 use the bigger MTOTAL cases to identify the events. make images of the events
 You could also use COOP and other data to ID snow and rain events
 Could just search from big Midwestern storms in the research and then check out
the anomalies.
 Storm data and Google events by date.
 For rain events could make maps from UPD data and/or COOP data.
o Post 2003 could use stage-IV data to add to cases
 For cold/warm events could use COOP disk and COOP data over eastern US.
 Suzanne may take lead in researching significant weather events from web and
journals.
4. Problems areas and Timeline
 Logistically files still small enough to email around. Rich might not be able to
access the server when metdat server is used to store the data.
 Time line:
o download data for analysis  Jan
o Abstracts for WAF due January.
o mid-Feb all MTOTAL and ranked Feb
o Then need to start on images/pre-prints  April.
o Cases from literature and storm data  Feb-May
 Will big severe events fall out of the data? I think some will
5. Time line/Progress/Goals
 Next meeting Follow-up call in mid-late Feb based on progress.
 Conference papers/abstracts May/Jan respectively
 list to share/report findings and developments

Links:
o Midwest floods: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/Junker-Bodner-Grumm/
o Case data http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/MidWest/
Utilizing standardized anomalies to assess synoptic scale weather events in the
central United States
Barbara E. Mayes
National Weather Service Forecast Office, Omaha/Valley, NE
Mark O’Malley
National Weather Service Forecast Office, Pleasant Hill, MO
Richard Grumm
National Weather Service Forecast Office, State College, PA
Anomalous synoptic weather events produce memorable and even historic weather
impacts. Because of the potential for high impact weather as well as the visibility of
these events, it is crucial for forecasters to be able to anticipate significant or rare events.
Hart and Grumm (2001) focused on the eastern United States, while Graham and Grumm
(2006) investigated the western U.S.; this study will apply an objective classification
method for synoptic systems occurring in the central U.S. between the Rockies and the
Appalachian Mountains.
Following the methodology presented by Hart and Grumm (2001) and Graham and
Grumm (2006), synoptic scale events in the central United States will be ranked
objectively based on standardized anomalies. The study will rank anomalies of wind,
geopotential height, temperature, and moisture utilizing a standardized anomalies method
of pressure weighted anomalies for each variable. The results will allow the ranking of
past events, with a summary of the top 10 events for each variable as well as for all
variables combined. By providing a guideline of anomalies for previous events,
forecasters will be able to place forecasted events in a historical context.
Standardized anomalies were computed from NCAR/NCEP global reanalysis data for the
period of 1 January 1948 through 31 December 2008, focused on a domain from 82°W to
110°W and from 26°N to 55°N. The computations were done in 6-hour increments with
anomalies computed for heights, temperatures, winds, specific humidity at mandatory
levels, as well as surface variables such as mean sea level pressure and precipitable water.
The base climatology for the means and standard deviations was computed for the 30
year period of 1971-2000. Results will be sorted by anomalies in order to objectively
rank past events by their departure from climatology, providing a context for forecasted
events based on standardized anomalies.