International Tropical Timber Organization INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS CENTER,5TH FLOOR, PACIFICO-YOKOHAMA1-1-1, MINATO-MIRAI, NISHI-KU, YOKOHAMA, 220-0012, JAPAN FACSIMILE ++81-45-223-1121 Tropical Timber Market Report 1 - 15th September 1998 Contents International Log Prices Domestic Log Prices International Sawnwood Prices Domestic Sawnwood Prices International Ply and Veneer Prices Domestic Ply and Veneer Prices Other Panel Product Prices Prices of Added Value Products Rubberwood and Furniture Prices p1 p3 p3 p5 p6 p7 p7 p8 p8 Report From Japan Report From Korea Report From China An Update on the UK Report from North America p9 p10 p10 p13 p15 World Value of the US Dollar Abbreviations ITTO Fellowship Grants p19 p19 p20 Appendix: Tropical Timber Product Price Trends Last week Malaysia formal announced that the economy was in recession as economic growth fell by 6.8% in the second quarter of 1998. The government hopes the new currency regulations will bring more money into the domestic market to boost growth. The steps are a reversal of a policy that favoured controlling the exchange rate by austerity measures and a tight monetary policy. The new currency controls threw financial markets into confusion, and foreign exchange trade came to a virtual halt as dealers scrambled to come to grips with the situation. International Tropical Log Prices Sarawak Log Prices On the 2nd September Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara, announced that the exchange rate for the ringgit will be set at 3.80 per US dollar for an indefinite period. Apparently there will be no value attached to the ringgit outside Malaysia after Oct. 1. All Malaysian currency overseas will have to be brought back to the country. The ringgit has lost nearly 40 percent of its value against the US dollar since the Asian crisis broke in July 1997. Sarawak Log Export Prices (FOB) per Cu.m Meranti SQ up US$115-120 small US$85-90 super small US$55-60 Keruing SQ up US$120-130 small US$90-100 super small US$70-75 Kapur SQ up US$110-120 Selangan Batu SQ up US$125-130 Solomon Islands 1 Forestry Department Indicative FOB Prices and forecast price trend Forestry Department Indicative Price Forecast per Cu.m Movement Group 1A Kwila Group 1B Palaquium Planchonella Calophyllum Pometia Gonostylus Schizomeria US$120 no change US$ 95 '' '' '' Mod. fall Mod. fall Mod. fall Mod. fall Mod. fall Mod. fall '' Group 2 Canarium Burckella Terminalia US$ 80 '' '' Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Group 3 Dillenia Celtis Alstonia Dysoxylum Eugenia Endospermum Vitex Amoora US$ 75-80 US$ 75-80 '' '' '' '' US$120 US$90 Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Signif.fall Group 4 Campnospermum US$75-80 Parinari US$70 Marathes '' Mixed white '' Mixed red '' Low Grade Logs US$70 70cm+ LM-C 80cm+LM-C 80cm+LM-C 70cm+LM-C Logs Teak 3rd Grade 4th Grade SG-1 Grade SG-2 Grade SG-3 Grade SG-4 Grade per Hoppus ton FOB July August US$3289 US$2958 US$2883 US$2122 US$2141 US$1648 US$1589 US$958 US$993 Padauk Assorted Pyinkado Gurjan Hnaw Sagawa Pyinma Thigadu Thitya US$201 US$168 US$287 US$259 US$171 - US$577 US$196 US$124 US$270 US$245 US$207 US$130 US$232 Hoppus ton equivalent to 1.8 Cu.m. Teak 3-4th Grade for sliced veneer. Teak grade 1-4 for sawmilling. SG Grade 3 3ft - 4ft 11" girth, other grades 5ft girth minimum. Papua New Guinea no change no change no change no change no change no change Cameroon Log Prices FOB N'Gollon Ayous Sapele Iroko expected to improve. Average prices for the most recent Tender Sale held by the Myanma Timber Enterprise on the 24th August are given below. per Cu.m FFR 1350 FFR 1000 FFR 1650 FFR 1650 FOB Group 1 Taun Calophyllum Group 2 Amoora, Hopea Group 3 Celtis, Watergum Group 4 Mixed Reds/Whites Myanmar Domestic Log Prices Hardwood log prices are moving down but demand for Teak is firm and prices are Brazil per Cu.m US$70-73 US$71-75 US$50-55 US$47-50 US$40-45 2 IBAMA is continuing inspection of forest management plans in Mato Grosso and has revealed that some timber companies are not properly implementing their forest management plans. Some companies have lost their harvesting licenses. The Timber Industry Association of Mato Grosso is promoting a Seminar in Cuiaba (Mato Grosso State). The seminar will be held in 17 and 18 th September, and will focus on the contribution of the timber industry to the social and economic development of the western part of the Amazon region. Logs at mill yard Mahogany Ist Grade Ipe Jatoba Guaruba Mescla(white virola) per Cu.m US$340 US$68 US$44 US$35 US$42 Indonesia Domestic log prices Plywood logs Face Logs Core logs Sawlogs (Merantis') Falkata logs Rubberwood Pine Mahoni per Cu.m US$60-70 US$35-4 US$50-65 US$40-45 US$26-28 US$50-55 US$330-350 Malaysia Logs Domestic (SQ ex-log yard) DR Meranti Balau Merbau Peeler Core logs Rubberwood Keruing per Cu.m US$120-130 US$115-120 US$140-145 US$60-65 US$23-23 US$120-125 per Cu.m Caoba (Swietenia macrophylla) US$227 Capirona (Calycophylum spruceanum) US$33 Catahua (Hura crepitans) US$15 Cedro (Cedrela odorata) US$110 Estoraque (Miroxilon balsamun)US$40 Huayruro (Ormosia sp) US$48 Tornillo (Cedrelinga catenaeformis) US$59 International Sawnwood Prices Brazil The Asian crisis, and now the Russia crisis, is having a strong impact on the Brazilian economy. Brazil lost around US$6 billion in foreign reserves during August. Reserves dropped US$10 bil. to US$59 bil. over the past two weeks and the government has increased interest rates to a massive 49% in an effort to stem any further outflows of capital. The higher interest rates will be an added burden to the timber industry. Export Sawnwood per Cu.m Mahogany KD FAS FOB UK market US$990 Jatoba Green (dressed)US$460 Asian Market Guaruba no business Angelim pedra no business Mandioqueira no business Pine (AD) US$145 Peru Peru Domestic Log Prices Pucallpa 3 Export Sawnwood FOBCallao/Lima per Cu.m Caoba (Mahogany) US$950 Cedro (Red Cedar) US$508 Cumala (Virola) US$206 Guyana Guyana continues to feel the impact of the South East Asian crisis, export markets are depressed and producers are supplying more timber to the already depressed domestic market. More recently, a cause for concern is the increasingly depressed market in North America, which is a major market for Guyana’s plywood (in 1997, 69% of plywood exports went to North America). On August 14, 1998, the Forest Products Association (FPA) of Guyana issued a press statement concerning the state of the forest industry, in which it requested the government to assist the industry to cope with the crisis. Among other things the FPA asked the government to review the exchange rate mechanisms and to consider financing a kiln drying facility. In the light of the changing market conditions, the Guyana Forestry Commission is currently undertaking a review of the industry so as to formulate policy options to address industry concerns. Length 1.8m&up mostly 3-4m per Cu.m Air Dry DM310-350 Kiln Dry DM390-500 Wawa Square Edged AD Lumber Squares 23x23mm up to 75x75mm Boards 100mm & up width 0.9m&up Length DM300-505 Wawa Square Edged KD Lumber range DM400-600 Plantation Teak per Cu.m Flooring Specs for Hong Kong and Macau US$630-700 Garden Furniture blanks for UK US$900-1200 Malaysia Sawn Timber Export(FOB) per Cu.m Dark Red Meranti (2.5ins x 6ins & up) GMS select & better (KD) US$425-435 Seraya Scantlings (75x125 KD) US$540-550 Sepetir Boards US$180-190 Perupok (25mm&37mm KD) US$690-700 K.Semangkok (25mm&37mmKD) US$690-700 Ghana Rough Sawn Prices FOB Niangon for France 25 x 100 mm 32 x 100 mm Lengths 1.5m - 4.0m per Cu.m DM730 Afzelia per Cum 31 x 81mm and 105mm AD DM840 KD DM960 Wawa Boules, FOB For Germany, France,UK and Italy Thicknesss 16-100mm Width 100mm and up Taiwan Province Imports Rubberwood 25mm boards 50-75mm squares per Cu.m US$230-240 US$285-295 4 75-100mm squares US$340-350 Sepetir GMS (AD) Ramin less than 2 ft. greater than 2 ft. Oak 25mm boards Maple Cherry US$195-200 US$510-525 US$610-620 US$840-850 US$1400-1500 US$1400-1500 (Calycophylum spruceanum) Catahua (Hura crepitans) Cedro (Cedrela odorata) Huayruro (Ormosia sp) Shihuahuaco (Dipterex sp) Tornillo (Cedrelinga catenaeformis) Copaiba (Copaifera) US$106 US$64 US$339 US$145 US$141 US$198 US$120 Ghana Domestic Sawnwood Prices Brazil In the domestic market lumber from the Amazon is gradually loosing out to eucalyptus. In order to keep their market share producers in the north are reducing prices. There is information that some sawmills, that used to export to Asia, are selling sawn LKS in the domestic market at prices as low as US$120 per Cu.m, this price is lower than that of pine. Sawnwood (Green ex-mill) Northern Mills per Cu.m Mahogany US$710 Ipe US$390 Jatoba US$320 Southern Mills Eucalyptus AD US$150 Pine (KD) First Grade US$135 Dahoma, Chenchen, Antiaris per Cu.m Mill Run 50x150mm US$95-125 50x100mm US$72-105 50x50mm US$105-150 25x300mm US$72-105 Mixed Redwood 40x300x3.6m US$105-240 Indonesia Sawn timber Domestic construction material Kampar AD 6x12-15x400cm KD AD 3x20x400cm KD Keruing AD 6x12-15cmx400 AD 2x20cmx400 AD 3x30cmx400 US$220-230 US$310-330 US$310-320 US$390-400 US$190-200 US$200-210 US$220-230 Malaysia Peru Caoba (Swietenia macrophylla) Capirona per Cu.m US$593 Sawnwood per Cu.m Balau(25&50mm,100mm+) US$160-170 Kempas50mm by (75,100&125mm) US$120-130 Red Meranti (22,25&30mm by180+mm) US$210-220 Rubberwood 25mm & 50mm Boards US$150-160 50mm squares US$195-200 75mm+ US$210-215 5 Myanmar Pine Veneer (C/D) US$165-185 per ton (1.4Cu.m) Sawn 6 ft. and up length Teak Kyat 70,000 Pyinkado Kyat 60,000 Padauk Kyat 60,000 Gurjan Kyat 35,000 Mixed Species Kyat 25,000 Mahogany Veneer 0.7mm per Sq.m US$2.50 International Plywood and Veneers Prices Indonesia Plywood (export, FOB) MR, Grade BB/CC 2.7mm 3mm 6mm Plywood FOB White Virola (US Market) 5.2mm OV2 (MR) US$280 15mm BB/CC (MR) US$260 For Caribbean countries White Virola 4mm US$360 9mm US$300 Pine USA market 9mm C/CC (WBP) US$240 15mm C/CC (WBP) US$230 Malaysian Plywood per Cu.m US$275-280 US$245-255 US$200-210 Ghana Rotary Cut Veneer FOB per Cu.m Face Veneer 1-1.6mm Ceiba US$245 Koto 30% jointed allowed US$510-520 Plywood 1220 x 2440mm Grade c/c WBP FOB Ceiba for the German market per Cu.m 4mm DM735 6mm DM623 9mm DM613 12mm DM600 15mm DM587 18mm DM573 Brazilian Plywood and Veneer Veneer FOB per Cu.m White Virola Face 2.5mm US$200-260 The timber industries are experiencing price increases for freight containers, particularly for European ports. Container charges are also increasing for other routes and, in addition, there is a shortage of containers. The shortage of containers is due to the imbalance of cargo movements as, for the past few months, imports have dropped drastically as a result of the economic situation in Malaysia. Malaysia experienced a trade surplus for the past few months averaging some RM2.0 billion (US$525 million). In August the trade surplus was about RM2.7 billion (US$710 million). The trade surplus is likely to continue as Malaysian manufacturers are currently very competitive in the international market. MR Grade BB/CC FOB per Cu.m 2.7mm US$275-285 3mm US$245-255 3.6mm US$210-220 9-18mm US$180-190 6 Domestic plywood 3.6mm 9-18mm US$215-220 US$210-215 Domestic Plywood Prices Export Prices Blockboard 18mm White Virola Faced B/C Brazil Rotary Cut Veneer (ex-mill Northern Mill) White Virola Face White Virola Core per Cu.m US$150 US$118 Plywood (ex-mill Southern Mill) Grade MR 4mm White Virola 15mm White Virola 4mm Mahogany 1 face per Cu.m US$510 US$360 US$1,080 Indonesia Domestic MR plywood (Jarkarta) 9mm 12mm 15mm 18mm dumping tariffs, related to the individual producer (for companies not participating in the investigation the tariffs were fixed under the heading "other"): Brazilian Duratex SA. 23.1% (other 28.2%). per Cu.m US$220-235 US$205-215 US$190-200 US$175-185 Other Panel Product Prices Brazil per Cu.m US$230 Domestic Prices Ex-mill Southern Region Blockboard 15mm White Virola Faced 15mm Mahogany Faced Particleboard 15mm per Cu.m US$390 US$810 US$230 Indonesia Other Panels per Cu.m Export Particleboard FOB 9-18mm US$80-95 Domestic Particleboard 9mm US$130 12-15mm US$115 18mm US$100 MDF Export (FOB) 12-18mm US$115-120 MDF Domestic 12-18mmUS$160-170 Anti-dumping tariffs for hardboards According to recent press releases in August, and following the application by 8 EU hardboard producers, the EUCommission imposed anti-dumping tariffs on imports of raw and processed hardboard from Brazil, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Russia. These preliminary anti-dumping tariffs are calculated from the net-prices free EUborder, prior to customs-clearance. The dumping price gaps were calculated in per cent, based on the price CIF EU-border. The Commission fixed the following anti- Taiwan Province of China, Imports MDF Domestic Prices 3mm thick 16-18mm x 4' x 8' per Cu.m Particleboard 12-18mm (4x8) per Cu.m US$130-140 US$225-235 US$175-185 7 Ghana Malaysia Particleboard (FOB) 6mm & above Domestic 6mm & above per Cu.m US$100-105 US$120-125 MDF (FOB) Less than5mm Greater than 6mm per Cu.m US$160-165 US$120-130 Domestic Price US$155-160 Wawa 10mmx23mmx2.16m - 2.45m per Cu.m some black spots allowed DM 900 Finger jointed mouldings DM 850 With 30% Filled holes DM 550 5mmx24mmx2.43m DM1200 Dahoma Blanks KD 20% No defects 25mmx90mmx510, 533, 1000, 1273 1800 Stg505 Albizzia Blanks 25mmx90mmx510, 533, 1000, 1273 1800 Stg505 Odum Blanks KD 14% PAR 25,28x66, 90x674,728,762 Stg660-780 (for the Irish market) Prices of Added Value Products Furniture and Rubberwood Parts Indonesia Malaysia Mouldings Ramin casings per Cu.m (for the Italian market) US$680-690 Laminated Scantlings US$330-340 Laminated Boards Falkata wood US$250-265 Red Meranti Mouldings 11x68/92mm x 7ft up Grade A US$570-590 Grade B US$450-460 Finger jointed laminated boards top grade Malaysia Brazil Mouldings (FOB) per Cu.m Selagan Batu Decking US$530-540 Laminated Scantlings 72mmx86mm US$480-490 Red Meranti Mouldings 11x68/92mm x 7ft up Grade A US$620-630 Grade B US$500 per Cu.m US$515-530 US$590-600 Dining table Solid rubberwood laminated top 3' x 5' with extension leaf US$28-30ea Windsor Chair US$8.0-8.5ea Colonial Chair US$10.0-11.0ea Queen Anne Chair (with soft seat) without arm US$15.5-16.5ea with arm US$21-22ea Edge Glued Pine Panel for Korea 1st Grade Last price US Market per Cu.m no business US$570 US$490 8 Taiwan Province of China Taiwan P.o.C is expected to post its worst economic growth for years in 1998 but, even at the current rates, the island remains one of the bright spots in Asia where countries are reeling from economic crises. The island's GDP is expected to grow 4.9% in 1998 and 5.2% in 1999. Exports, the previous 'engine' of growth, are declining as Asian markets crumble, however, strong private investment and accelerated public works activity is sustaining growth. Furniture Dining suite (FOB) Oak Veneered MDF tables and chairs (6 per set) 4ft dia. US$110-120per set Occasional table Cherry veneer top 2ftx4ft US$20-25ea Report From Japan Unstable Currencies Fluctuating world currencies are affecting wood products imports into Japan. The problems in Russia will certainly impact producers in Russia and this casts dark shadow over future supplies of logs for Japan. Meanwhile, the Malaysian government revalued the ringgit which could push export prices higher. In Japan, the rate of the yen against the dollar soared more than 10 points during the past week. These erratic currency rate changes make future dealings extremely uncertain. Theoretically, the devalued rouble should encourage exports but log supply is extremely tight with very few offers available. The CIF price for Red pine for 22-36cm by 4 metre jumped from $95 to $103 per Cu.m. Larch prices moved from $85 to $90 per Cu.m CIF. Whitewood prices are getting close to $80. Traders complain that prices are moving without logs being available. In Malaysia export prices for logs and plywood are moving up. Meranti regular (SQ up) FOB price was US $110 –115, per Cu.m and is now around US$120. Plywood prices are also moving up by around US$15 to 20, per Cu.m with concrete formboard at US$220-230 per Cu.m FOB. Due to the depressed plywood market in Japan even previous offers were not acceptable so these new offers make much more difficult for Japanese importers. The Japanese yen gained about 7% on the dollar but the increases in export price in Malaysia makes the cost higher for Japanese importers. Some buyers are shifting to Indonesia as prices are US$230-235 per Cu.m C&F (almost same as Malaysian FOB) however prices are not low enough to correspond to current market expectations. Japanese buyers are now watching to see if the yen will continue to strengthen which may make these prices acceptable. Imports of Forest Products Down Forest products imports for the first half of this year totalled 564 billion yen a drop of 43% compared to the same period last year. The amount of imported logs and lumber declined to a historically low level down 50% in value terms and down 37% in terms of volume. The biggest losers are North American and European lumber down 60% in value terms and 58% in volume. Softwood plywood imports from North America dropped 60% being able to compete with S.E. Asian products. Total plywood imports fell by 1.1 mil. Cu.m compared to the same period last year. Log, Lumber and Panel Prices Logs For Plywood Manufacturing CIF Price Yen per Koku Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) Medium Mixed 5,500 Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) STD Mixed 5,600 Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) Small Lot (SM60%, SSM40%) 4,600 Taun, Calophyllum (PNG) 9 and others Mix Light Hardwood (PNG G3-G5 grade) Okume (Gabonese) Keruing (Sarawak) Medium MQ & up Kapur (Sarawak) Medium MQ & up 4,600 3,800 6,500 7,500 Particle Board 12mm x 4'x8' 15mm x 4'x8' 18mm x 4'x8' W6,900 W7,300 W8,900 5,800 Sawnwood Logs For Sawmilling FOB Price Yen per Koku Melapi (Sarawak) Select 9,500 Agathis (Sarawak) Select 8,500 Lumber FOB Price Yen per Cu.m White Seraya (Sabah) 24x150mm, 4m 1st grade 170,000 Mixed Seraya 24x48mm, 1.8 - 4m, S2S 38,000 Red Oak 5/4x6 ins and wider FAS (US East Coast) 125,000 Report from Korea Domestic wholesale prices per Cu.m Sarawak Meranti regular W333,000 Solomon Taun regular W233,100 Solomon Taun Low grade W149,850 Solomon Dillenia regular W233,100 Solomon Dillenia Low gradeW173,160 Low grade Calophylum W183,150 NZ Radiata 11m W139,860 Price of Panels: ex factory per piece Combi-Plywood 12mm x 4'x8' T-1 12mm x 3'x6' T-1 12mm x 4'x8' T-2 12mm x 3'x6' T-2 W14,500 W 8,500 W13,000 W 7,500 Meranti S4S 40mm Meranti Rough Sawn 45mm per cu.m W540,000 W480,000 Report From China Competition Fiercer As a consequence of the rapid development of China's economy, the growing rate of home ownership and the start-up of major infrastructure projects, demand for timber is increasing. At the same time, competition between products is becoming fiercer, particularly in Shanghai, which ranks first in consumption of imported timber. Over recent months the trade has witnessed several trends: Firstly, the imports of Douglas fir, Spruce, Hemlock from the US has declined sharply and these timbers did feature prominently in the consumption of imported timbers. On the other hand imports of Oak, Maple, Cherry, Beech and other hardwoods from North America and Europe (France, Germany and Italy) have increased gradually to meet the demand for high grade decorative timber. In order to meet the domestic demand for high grade furniture, doors, windows, flooring and decorative veneer, imports through the border trade of high value species such as teak and pterocarpus represents a rising trend. Tego Plywood 12mm x 4'x8' Tego 12mm x 3'x6' Tego W23,000 W12,500 Okoume log imports from West Africa for plywood manufacture have weakened because prices for imported plywood from 10 Indonesia and Malaysia have fallen sharply as a result of the SE Asian financial crisis. It is reported that the price of the plywood has fallen to the current of 1600 yuan per Cu.m from a high of 2500 yuan. Timbers including Ash, Oak and Pinus sylvestris imported from Russia and Korea sell well because of their moderate price and good quality. Pinus sylvestris logs of good quality and straight grain from Russian natural forests, for example, sells at a price of only 800 yuan per Cu.m while the US Douglas fir log from forest plantations sells at a much higher price of 1350 yuan per Cu.m. Increase in Plywood Transit According to recently released statistics from the government of Hong Kong Special Zone, the transit of Indonesian and Malaysian plywood from Hong Kong to mainland China increased to 200,000 cubic metres the first quarter of this year, a rise of around 75% over the same period last year The reason for the rapid increase in the transiting of plywood from Hong Kong to mainland China was due to Indonesian and Malaysian plywood becoming more price competitive, this gave more traders in Hong Kong better opportunities to sell through wider networks on the mainland. The government of China encourages plywood imports as a priority since domestic plywood supplies cannot meet the demand in mainland China. According to news coming from Hong Kong timber dealers, the price for Indonesian and Malaysian plywood to Hong Kong is US$ 280 per Cu.m, down by 20% over the same period of last year. The price quotation for some plywood is less than US$250, down 30%. Some traders are complaining that the quality of plywood is hard to guarantee at these prices. It is apparent that, in 1998, demand for timber for agriculture, infrastructural works, interior decoration and furniture has increased considerably in Guangdong, especially at Guangzhou and its adjacent markets. At present, prices at Guangdong timber market are rising. Chinese red pine logs 4 metres length and with a diameter of 1828 centimetres are selling at a price of 550 yuan per Cu.m at the forest site and at 710 yuan per Cu.m in the consumer market. The rapid development of construction in Guangdong province and growing exports has promoted a rise in timber consumption. Timber stocks appears low currently. Stocks in forest regions are said to be down by 8% over the same time of last year. Over the whole of Guangdong province log stocks have fallen by nearly a half compared to the same period of last year and sawnwood stocks are reportedly down by about a third. As to domestic available resources, these are becomes fewer and fewer. The measures introduced to protect the natural forests this year have influenced the timber market in Guangdong. It is forecast that little timber will enter the Guangdong market from near-by timberproducing provinces of Guangxi and Guizhou. Boost to Housing Starts China will boost investment in residential housing construction in an effort to help reach the targeted 8% GDP growth this year. The country plans to build 105.5 million square metres of low-cost housing in the remaining months of this year, according to Vice Minister of Construction, Song Chunhua. Overall, China's state-owned companies had began 366 million square metres of residential housing construction in the first seven months of this year, up 16% form the year-earlier period. Demand in Guangdong 11 The new low-cost housing will involve total investment of 80.58 billion yuan ($9.73 billion), of which 30.05 billion yuan will reportedly come from state commercial banks, local governments and real estate companies. The government has doubled its housing construction investment targets of the year. Investment in commercial building increased 22% to 77.52 billion yuan in the period January to July. Guanzhou Lauan Log Keruing log White oak 2 ins sawnwood Canadian sawnlog length: 4m+ US maple Lumber 2 ins Teak sawlog 4 m+ Sawlog from SE Asia 1300 1800 9000 2300 12000 6500 3000 Wholesale Prices Indonesian and Malaysian plywood 3mm 1220x2440 yuan per Cu.m Shanghai Radiate pine log length:6m, dia. 26cm+ Douglas fir log 28cm Lauan lumber ( mixed) White oak lumber 2 ins Canadian sawlog 4m+ US maple lumber 2 ins Teak sawlog 4 m+g SE Asian Sawlog Beijing Lauan log ( mixed) Teak sawlog 4m+ 900 1200 1200 11000 1500 11000 8000 1450 yuan per Cu.m 2450 9500 Qindau Luan Log (mixed) White oak lumber 2 inches thick Keruing log 1200 9000 900 yuan per sheet Beijing 35 Shanghai 27.5 Harbin 40 Shenyan 28 Zhengzhou 29.5 Lanzhou 36 Shijiaozhuang 35 Yingchuan 35 Xian 30 Jinan 38 Hefei 37 Qindau 40 Chongqing 26 Chengdu 26 Nanjing 29 Hangzhou 30 Wuhan 26 Changsha 31.5 Guanzhou 25 From Europe an Update on the UK Nanjing Douglas fir log Lauan log Teak sawlog 4 m+ Sawlog from SE Asia American maple lumber 2 inches Hangzhou Douglas Fir sawlog length: more than 4m Lauan log Keruing log Canadian sawlog 4m+ Teak sawlog 4m+ SE Asian Sawlog 1450 1800 9000 3200 11000 1600 1450 1500 1250 8500 3700 In 1997 the UK production of kitchen furniture was worth ECU 941.3 million. In the same year, consumption of kitchen furniture was ECU 953.7 million (with the UK accounting for 10.6% of total European consumption). Exports were worth ECU 64.3 million, while imports were ECU 76.7 million. Forest Fencing Ltd, the largest UK wooden garden products manufacturer, has been taken over by a group of managers through a buy-in-buy-out arrangement. Forest Fencing operates five production plants and is estimated to have 12 a 20% share of the wooden garden products sector in the UK. The company is now planning to buy businesses in related areas of manufacturing. From February to April 1998 the output of sawmilling and planing firms increased in the UK by 17.6% compared to the same period of 1997. The output of furniture (excluding kitchen furniture) fell by 11%. In May the factory gate prices of UK producers of wood and wood products registered a 0.3% decrease compared with May 1997. Manufacturer's Prices Wooden Windows Upper Price Hardwood 120x135cm Sterling, 301.15 Medium Price Hardwood 120x135cm Sterling 244.75 Lower Price Softwood 120x135cm Sterling 115.20 Solid Wooden Doors Upper Price Meranti (new range) 76.2x198.1x3.5cm Sterling 351.00 Medium Price Sapele 76.2x198.1x3.5cm Sterling 142.20 Lower Price Veneered 76.2x198.1x3.5cm Sterling 49.00 Kitchen Chair Upper Price Solid Oak Sterling 333.00 Dining Chair Upper Price African Mahogany Sterling 333.00 Medium Price African Mahogany Sterling 224.00 Dining Table Upper Price African Mahogany 80x160cm Sterling 1134.00 Medium Price African Mahogany 80x160cm Sterling1006.00 Lower Price African Mahogany 80x160cm Sterling 693.00 Furniture and Components Wardrobe Door Lower Price 50x180cm Sterling 63.15 Kitchen Cabinet Door 71.5x49.5cm Medium Price Oak Sterling 19.90 Drawer Front Upper Price Melamine Faced Particleboard 100x10cm Sterling 0.77/pc Medium Price Melamine Faced Particleboard 100x10cm Sterling 0.62/pc Lower Price Melamine Faced Particleboard 100x10cm Sterling 0.55/pc Sawnwood Prices in the UK FOB plus Commission Teak 1st Quality 1"x8"x8' per Cu.m Stg2650 Brazilian Mahogany FAS 25mm Tulipwood FAS 25mm Cedro FAS 25mm Stg694 Stg245 Stg408 DR Meranti Sel/Btr 25mm Keruing Std/Btr 25mm Stg260 Stg225 Sapele Iroko Khaya Utile Wawa Stg310 Stg355 Stg330 Stg395 Stg190 FAS 25mm FAS 25mm FAS 25mm FAS 25mm No1. C&S 25mm Plywood and MDF in the UK CIF Brazilian WBP BB/CC 6mm " Mahogany 6mm Indonesian WBP 6mm Eire, MDF BS1142 12mm per Cu.m US$450 US$1290 US$350 per 10 Sq.m Stg33.50 Manufactured Items 13 CIF Carolina Door US$25.50 Directors Chair US$9.00 8" Salad bowl Stg2.00 Wholesale Stg34 Stg9.00 Stg5.00 Other News from Europe In the first six months of 1998 the French group Seribo (manufacturer of furniture and parquet), achieved a turnover of FFr 593 million, registering a 4.4% increase over the same period of 1997. In order to return to profits and to boost business development, the German Alno, kitchen furniture producer based in Pfullendorf, will cut about 200 jobs by next year. The company will also invest DM 42 million to modernise an assembly plant: this will reduce the assembly time for a cupboard by 50%. In 1998 the furniture market in Hungary is expected to grow in real terms by between 5-10% over 1997, when it reached Ft 4550 billion; these figures do not include the office furniture market, which was worth about Ft 18 billion last year. In 1998 imports should benefit from the expected domestic market growth, in 1997 imports registered a 10.3% increase to US$ 192.1 million. In 1997 the French furniture industry reported a turnover of FFr 66 billion. In the same year, furniture imports were worth FFr 18.3 billion, compared to FFr 16.8 billion in 1996. Exports grew from FFr 10.2 billion in 1996 to FFr 11.3 billion in 1997. The French furniture manufacturers announced, during the last congress of Unifa (the French association of furniture firms), that they aim at doubling their export sales by the year 2005. The Finnish Kontiopuu, a kitchen furniture producer, has been taken over by the Russian Voltrade. Following this change of ownership, Kontiopuu's products will be sold in outlets to be set up in Moscow. Sales in the Russian market are expected to reach several million Finnish marks a year. Preparing for the Euro Businesses preparing financial systems for a smooth changeover to the Euro can now consult practical guidelines published by the European Commission. Although companies in non-participating Member States will be affected less by the introduction of the Euro, the guidelines state that they should be prepared to deal with transactions denominated in Euros. Copies of Preparing Financial Systems for the Euro can be downloaded from the Internet at http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg15 or ordered by post from: Unit DG XV.D.3, C107 02/57, European Commission, 200 rue de la Loi, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium, Fax: 00 32 2 299 4745. Report from North America The American economy is still strong. New and existing housing sales are healthy and consumer confidence is at a 28-year high. Inflation appears to be under control and the Federal Reserve Board appears ready to lower interest rates. There are some signs, however, that the US economy may cool down during the second half of this year and into 1999. Many indicators point to a less vibrant business environment. Similarly, the lumber business is showing signs of weakness and prices are generally lower. After two hectic years, the hardwood market has definitely stabilised in recent months according to AKTRIN the N.American market research institute. 14 Some inventory reduction has been going on in the furniture and secondary wood product manufacturing segments. While this is partially due to the ready availability of lumber from producers, it is also an indication of smaller order-book positions of manufacturers. Summer is traditionally a slow season as many logging operations and sawmills are closed for vacations or maintenance. The demand for lumber by manufacturers is subject to the same cyclical influences, infact, lumber production frequently outproduces market demand in the summer months. Apart from seasonal factors, declining exports to many Asian destinations are a serious drag on sawmills production. Unfortunately the days have gone when lower export shipments happily coincided with a very strong US economy. The excess lumber from sagging exports can no longer be absorbed entirely by domestic users. While there has been a recent increase in exports to China and Taiwan, the Far Eastern markets are in a state of chaos that will continue well into the next year. On a more positive note, the summer vacation lull in Europe came to an end and shipments to that region should improve soon. The Mexican market is performing well and the outlook for the next few months should remain fairly positive. Profit margins for most hardwood suppliers are shrinking. This is the direct result of slower sales, sawmills' limited control over their raw material costs, and the competitive business climate. In anticipation of slower sales, most sawmills are not increasing their output. Thus, there is not much over-production at this time, preventing any major price erosion for most lumber items. Some sawmills have reduced their inventory levels in order to improve their profitability. Many mills are taking steps to create additional revenues to remain viable. Increasingly, mills are using lower grades to produce crating, pallets, and dimension goods. In some cases these products are for specialised industrial niches. Similarly, dry kiln operators are attacking the profitability dilemma by improving quality and reducing drying degrade. The hardwood industry has become more astute in locating alternative opportunities in order to counter an erosion of their core business. As is normal in times of slower sales, buyers are becoming more demanding. Downstream product manufacturers are asking for "just-in-time shipments" from hardwood suppliers, allowing them to reduce their own investments in lumber inventories. Users of hardwood lumber are also asking for special qualities such as no mineral in the wood, colour selection, special widths, lengths and grades. Selling lumber is no longer a simple process where salesmen have only one price for each species, grade and thickness. US domestic demand for hardwood lumber will be steady for the next few months followed by a slight export induced upswing in the fall. Supply of most hardwood species is anticipated to be adequate to meet the demand. Under this scenario, the outlook for the balance of 1998 and early 1999 is fair and prices for most species and grades should not decline much further. Outlook by Region Northern Region: The order backlog for lumber producers is good. Some sawmill operators shortened or eliminated their traditional shutdown during the vacation period. Appalachian Region: With the end of the vacation period, most sawmills are operational again and business is picking up where it left before the holiday. In some areas, shipments have been delayed 15 due to transportation problems. In West Virginia, rail car shortages as well as truck availability has been poor. The rail car shortage is in large part due to many rail lines having been abandoned or taken over by short-lines with limited services. Southern Region: The volume of lumber moving from Southern producers to Mexico is quite strong. This, coupled with a steady increase in shipments to the West Coast and strong moulding demand, has left most producers with good order book positions. Unusually dry weather has resulted in most mills having a normal supply of logs. Outlook by Species The following reviews the trends for various species. All prices refer to 1000 board feet (MBF, 1-inch thick, top quality. Imported lumber prices are at West Coast port of entry. Approximately $ 50.00 will have to be added for East Coast ports. Mahogany: The steep price increases for Mahogany last year have come to an end. Since the beginning of this year, prices have remained remarkably stable, nevertheless, the price of the timber is still 7% higher than one year ago. Mahogany (at West coast port of entry) KD US$2885 No change AD US$2525 No change Meranti: Prices for the different kinds of Meranti have remained stable since December 1997. However, prior to that date, Meranti was subject to significant inflationary pressure. Today's prices are almost 4% above those paid in July of 1997. Meranti (at West coast port of entry) Clear, dark red KD US$2385 No change Clear, light red KD US$2220 No change Red Oak: Sales of Red Oak are quite strong as manufacturers of cabinets, furniture, flooring and other secondary wood products have excellent order backlogs. This applies in particular to the Northern and Southern growing regions. Summer is the prime drying season for Red Oak. Much lumber is coming onto the market which will prevent prices from rising in the coming months. The demand for common grade lumber, as well as for thick stocks, may slow slightly, but prices may decline only marginally, if at all. Housing starts are still good in the US, thus flooring Oak prices will remain firm. Red Oak Northern Region KD US$1608 US$5 AD US$1290 No change Southern Region KD US$1323 US$10 AD US$1025 US$5 Appalachians KD US$1488 US$5 AD US$1160 US$5 White Oak: The White Oak market suffers under sluggish export sales. The demand for common grade White Oak is particularly slow and intense competition has resulted in a softening of prices in overseas markets. The domestic market has absorbed some of the export shortfall, but a build-up of excess inventory could not be prevented. Exports of White Oak to Europe should improve this fall. The Spanish White Oak market remained relatively good. White Oak Northern Region KD US$1330 No Change AD US$945 US$10 Southern Region KD US$1210 US$40 AD US$920 No Change Appalachians KD US$1393 No Change AD US$1018 US$5 Hard Maple: After two years of record summer output, the market for Hard Maple has softened noticeably and prices are lower in all regions and for all quality grades. With winter-cut lumber gradually being used up, it is possible that prices will strengthen slightly this fall. 16 Hard Maple Northern Region KD US$1825 AD US$1335 Appalachians KD US$1725 AD US$1245 US$50 US$50 US$50 US$65 Soft Maple: Recently, the demand for Soft Maple has been fair at best. Sales of Soft Maple may increase in the coming months as many buyers will use Soft Maple as an alternative species for Cherry. Prices of Soft Maple may follow in the wake of the steady price increase of Cherry. Soft Maple North Region Appalachian KD US$1228 No Change AD US$890 US$5 KD US$1288 US$5 AD US$940 US$5 Cherry: The lumber and veneer markets for Cherry is booming and the common grades of the wood are also in strong demand. During the next few months Cherry production will be at its seasonal low. Supply is likely to fall short of demand, resulting in further price increases. Some manufacturers have started to switch to alternative species such as Alder and Soft Maple. Cherry Appalachians KD US$2705 US$20 AD US$2235 No Change Walnut: Walnut prices came under some pressure during summer, however, sales have improved recently. There is a renewed demand from European as well as domestic markets, which may further strengthen in the next few months. Analysts expect to see some firming in Walnut prices, first in the upper grades, then followed by the common grades. Walnut Appalachians Yellow Birch: Yellow Birch prices have remained steady. With a good demand for white cabinets and furniture, Birch should continue to enjoy a favourable market position. Birch is often used as a substitute for higher priced species, such as Hard Maple and Cherry. Ash: The demand for the mid- and lower grades of Ash has been on the increase over the last few months, but the upper grades have been slow to follow. The traditional export markets for Ash have not been active, and little improvement is expected in the next few months. It is possible that we will see an increased domestic demand and firmer prices in the fall. Basswood: Basswood is widely used for wooden blind and shutters. With new housing starts at high levels and remodelling business good, Basswood demand should remain steady for a while. However, the increased use of substitute species such as Ramin from South East Asia and Poplar are causing stiff competition for Basswood and this will prevent prices from rising much above present levels. Poplar: The demand for Poplar is primarily domestic, although some shipments go to Mexico and China. Sales of upper grade Poplar are steady, but sales of the common grades are only fair. Sawmills have not increased the production of Poplar lumber this spring and summer as better returns can be obtained for veneer grade Poplar logs. Some steadying in Poplar prices may be possible this fall. Compiled by AKTRIN from various sources including Hardwood Review, www.Hardwoodreview.com KD US$1903 US$20 AD US$1385 No Change 17 If any of your colleagues would like to receive an E-mail copy of our twice monthly market report, please send their E-mail address to: mjadams@itto.or.jp 18 World Value of the US Dollar 11 September 1998 Australia Dollar 1.6715 Indonesia Rupiah 11,575.00 Austria Schilling 11.8995 Ireland Punt 0.675 Belgium Franc 34.9 Italy Lira 1670.75 Bolivia Boliviano 5.56 Japan Yen 130.95 Brazil Real 1.179 Korea, Rep. of Won 1366 Cambodia Riel 4015 Liberia Dollar 1 Cameroon C.F.A.Franc 567 Malaysia Ringgit 3.8 Canada Dollar Myanmar Kyat 6.3071 Central African Republic C.F.A.Franc 567 1.5112 Nepal Rupee 67.925 China Yuan 8.279 Netherlands Guilder 1.9083 Colombia Peso 1508 New Zealand NZ Dollar 1.9247 Congo D.R New Zaire 175.09 Norway Krone 7.568 Congo, People's Rep. C.F.A.Franc 567 Panama Balboa 1 Cote d'Ivoire C.F.A.Franc 567 Papua New Guinea Kina 2.2753 Denmark Krone 6.438 Peru New Sol 3.069 Ecuador Sucre 5555 Philippines Peso 43.7 Egypt Pound 3.4038 Portugal Escudo 173.37 Fiji Dollar 2.04 Russian Fed. Ruble 11.428 Finland Markka 5.1508 Spain Pesata 143.5 France Franc 5.67 Sweden Krona 7.9499 Gabon C.F.A.Franc 567 Switzerland Franc 1.3865 Germany Mark 1.6913 T hailand Baht 40.7 Ghana Cedi 2325 T ogo, Rep. C.F.A.Franc 567 Greece Drachma 292.22 T rinadad and T obago Dollar 6.2415 Guyana Dollar 152.3 United Kingdom Pound 0.593 Honduras, Rep. Lempira 13.5 Venezuala Bolivar 587.275 India Rupee 42.501 EU Ecu 1.1601 Abbreviations LM FOB SSQ AD Boule Loyale Merchant, a grade of log parcel Free-on-Board Select Sawmill Quality Air Dry A Log Sawn Through and Through the boards from one log are bundled together BB/CC Grade B faced and Grade C backed Plywood MBF 1000 Board Feet Sq.Ft Square Foot FFR French Franc Koku 0.278 Cu.m or 120BF Cu.m SQ KD FAS Cubic Metre Sawmill Quality Kiln Dry Sawnwood Grade First and Second WBP Water and Boil Proof MR Moisture Resistant pc per piece ea each BF Board Foot MDF Medium Density Fibreboard F.CFA CFA Franc Price has moved up or down 19 ITTO FELLOWSHIP PROGRAMME GRANTS ITTO offers grants for training and technology transfer through its fellowship programme to promote human resource development, development of downstream timber industries and institutional strengthening in the forestry sectors of member countries. The priority areas are: Forest Industry; Economic Information and Market Intelligence; and Reforestation and Forest Management. Grants are provided for a variety of activities including: study tours of forests, mills and research institutions; participation in conferences, workshops and training courses; including Ph.D.; postgraduate programmes (partial tuition grants), not short-term research; technology transfer to tropical producer member countries; and preparation of technical documents. Applications are required to conform with ITTO’s general objectives in respect of sustainable forest management, utilisation and trade and, in particular, the Year 2000 Objective. The grant is a maximum of US$12,000. Only nationals of ITTO member countries are eligible to apply. A Fellowship Selection Committee appraises applications at the ITTO Council Sessions in May and November/December each year. Applicants should note that grant funded activities should not start until at least one month after the relevant Council Session. The next deadline for applications is 10th March 1999 and this is for activities that can begin in June 1999 at the earliest. Further details and application forms (in English, French or Spanish) are available from: Dr. Chisato Aoki, Fellowship Programme, ITTO, E-mail itto@mail.itto-unet.ocn.ne.jp Appendix 1 Tropical Timber Product Price Trends 20 Tropical Hardwood Log FOB Price Trends 1997-98 110 90 70 50 1997 Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct July Aug Sept 30 1998 Meranti SQ & Up African Mahogany L-MC Sapele L-MC Calophyllum Keruing SQ & Up Obeche L-MC Iroko L-MC Tropical Sawnwood FOB Price Trends 1997-98 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1997 Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug 40 Jul Price Index (Jan 1997 = 100) Price Index (Jan 1997 = 100) 130 1998 Meranti Brazilian Mahogany Sapele Iroko khaya Utile Wawa 21 Tropical Plywood FOB Price Trends 1997-98 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1997 Aug July Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug 30 July Price Index (Jan 1997= 100) 120 1998 Indonesian 3mm Indonesian 6mm Brazilain Virola 5.2mm Brazilian Pine 9mm Malaysian 3mm Malaysian 9mm 22