Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE NZQA Approved Internal Assessment Resource Economics Level 2 This resource supports assessment against: Achievement Standard 91228 version 2 Analyse a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models Resource title: The global financial crisis and its impact on the New Zealand economy 4 credits This resource: Clarifies the requirements of the standard Supports good assessment practice Should be subjected to the school’s usual assessment quality assurance process Should be modified to make the context relevant to students in their school environment and ensure that submitted evidence is authentic Date version published by Ministry of Education February 2015 Version 2 Quality assurance status These materials have been quality assured by NZQA. To support internal assessment from 2015 NZQA Approved number: A-A-02-2015-91228-02-5488 Authenticity of evidence Teachers must manage authenticity for any assessment from a public source, because students may have access to the assessment schedule or student exemplar material. Using this assessment resource without modification may mean that students’ work is not authentic. The teacher may need to change figures, measurements or data sources or set a different context or topic to be investigated or a different text to read or perform. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 1 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Internal Assessment Resource Achievement Standard Economics 91228: Analyse a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models Resource reference: Economics 2.7A v2 Resource title: The global financial crisis and its impact on the New Zealand economy Credits: 4 Teacher guidelines The following guidelines are designed to ensure that teachers can carry out valid and consistent assessment using this internal assessment resource. Teachers need to be very familiar with the outcome being assessed by Achievement Standard Economics 91228. The achievement criteria and the explanatory notes contain information, definitions, and requirements that are crucial when interpreting the standard and assessing students against it. Context/setting This assessment activity requires students to write a report analysing the impact of the global financial crisis on the New Zealand economy, integrating economic concepts and models into their explanations. It is expected that students will have already covered the following topics prior to commencing this assessment: the economic concepts involved with the business cycle, and circular flow model (covering all sectors and money flows), changes in injections and leakages and the effect on the business cycle. Conditions You will need to determine how long students need to complete each task and what processes they will follow. These will need to be clearly outlined in the student instructions following. The research component can be conducted with a group, but the writing of the report must be completed individually. Resource requirements Students will need access to the Internet to do their research and in order to contact businesses by email. Teachers may wish to create an answer book of lines and resources for students to draw the circular flow model and a business cycle. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 2 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Students should refer to sources such as newspapers, journals, magazines, books, and email responses and non-print media sources such as TV, radio, interviews, and Internet chat sites for the research and report components of this assessment. Additional information None. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 3 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR STUDENT USE Internal Assessment Resource Achievement Standard Economics 91228: Analyse a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models Resource reference: Economics 2.7A v2 Resource title: The global financial crisis and its impact on the New Zealand economy Credits: 4 Achievement Analyse a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models. Achievement with Merit Achievement with Excellence Analyse in depth a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models. Analyse comprehensively a contemporary economic issue of special interest using economic concepts and models. Student instructions Introduction This assessment activity requires you to write a report which analyses the causes and impact of the global financial crisis on the New Zealand economy, incorporating changes shown on economic models into your explanations. The context of this activity could be changed so it could be used with another current contemporary issue. The student’s report could also be presented as a poster, a PowerPoint presentation, or a movie presentation. The thoroughness of your comparison of the causes and impacts of the global financial crisis, and the extent to which you integrate changes shown on economic models into your explanations, will determine the overall grade. The research component of the task may be conducted as a group, but your report needs to be written individually. You have [insert time] weeks of in- and out-of-class time in which to complete this task. Task Using Resource A as a guide, research the causes of the global financial crisis. Write a report analysing the causes of the global financial crisis and its impact on the New Zealand economy. In your report you need to: Compare the identified causes of the global financial crisis and explain the relationships between them, and explain how and when this event first impacted on the NZ economy. Use a circular flow model to illustrate and explain the flow-on impacts to various This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 4 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR STUDENT USE sectors of the NZ economy. Explain how the global financial crisis caused changes in our national economic activity and analyse the relationships between these changes, using the money flow components. Link your explanations to the business cycle. Compare how different sectors were affected and explain why the impacts of the financial crisis were not equally felt by all NZ society. As you write your report, take care to refer to appropriate economic concepts and models in your explanations. When you have completed your report, hand it in to your teacher. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 5 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR STUDENT USE Resource A Use the following guideline to help you focus your research: Research: financial crisis and the business cycle financial and corporate bailouts. Research the following causes of the global financial crisis: sub-prime lending in the US the Credit crunch and ensuing global financial crisis the bailouts of banks and other corporations in the US, EU, and UK over-borrowing by consumers. Research the impacts of the global financial crisis on: housing prices in the US, UK and New Zealand the New Zealand Government Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme New Zealand consumption, production, savings, investments, government spending trends since 2008. Identify key causes and effects of each of your research topics and take note of the source. Useful links: Reserve Bank Bulletin (See http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bulletin/): – “Lessons from previous US recessions and recoveries” by Satish Ranchhod (March 2010) – “The crisis and monetary policy: what we learned and where we are going.” by Alan Bollard and Felix Delbrück (March 2010) – “The financial crisis: whodunnit?” by Howard Davies (Sept 2009) – “Economic recovery” by Alan Bollard (Sept 2009) – “Financial crises, sound policies and sound institutions: an interview with Michael Bordo” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bailout http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/ – Interest rates – Economy – Confidence – Prices http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0090630.html http://www.treasury.govt.nz/. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 6 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Assessment schedule: Economics 91228 The global financial crisis and its impact on the New Zealand economy Evidence/Judgements for Achievement The student has identified and explained some causes of the global financial crisis, and how and when it first impacted on the NZ economy. The student has explained the impacts of the global financial crisis on some sectors of the NZ economy, and has created a circular flow model, to illustrate the flow-on effects of these impacts (see Appendix A). The student has explained a change in our national economic activity, showing the effect of the global financial crisis on the NZ business cycle, to support their explanation (see Appendix B). Example of student response: New Zealand banks were affected by the crisis that hit many overseas financial institutions. Overseas governments had to bail out many of these institutions. In New Zealand, the government offered deposit guarantees so consumers would still give their savings to our banks. A major reason was human greed because some investment bankers and financial advisors behaved fraudulently or deceitfully, and some consumers wanted it all now so they borrowed money for goods and services. IMPACTS ON SECTORS: As income fell households reduced savings and will pay less tax, through reduced expenditure. Firms who produce luxury goods experienced the biggest fall in This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Evidence/Judgements for Achievement with Merit Evidence/Judgements for Achievement with Excellence The student has provided a detailed explanation into the causes of the global financial crisis, identifying relationships between them, and how and when this event first impacted on the NZ economy. The student has explained in detail the different impacts of the global financial crisis on sectors of the New Zealand economy, and has created a circular flow model, using the money flow components (G, T, I, C, S, Y, X, M), to explain the flow-on effects of the global financial crisis on most sectors (also see Appendix A). The student has provided a comprehensive explanation into the causes of the global financial crisis, explaining the relationships between them, and how and when these events first impacted on the NZ economy. The student has comprehensively explained the different impacts of the global financial crisis on each sector of New Zealand society, and has integrated the circular flow model, using the money flow components (G, T, I, C, S, Y, X, M) to explain the flow-on effects of the global financial crisis on each sector (also see Appendix A). The student explains how the global financial crisis caused changes in our national economic activity by using the money flow components and has linked the explanations to the business cycle (also see Appendix B). The student comprehensively explains how the global financial crisis caused changes in our national economic activity and analyses the relationships between these changes by using the money flow components and has linked the explanations to the business cycle (also see Appendix B). Example of student response: From 2003, in the US, banks and mortgage companies lent money to people who bought houses and lots of consumer goods on an interest (mortgage) rate that was much lower than the normal rate for a fixed term rate of time (between 2-5 years). This was called the sub-prime rate. LINK Because of this many people bought houses and the prices went up because of this excess demand. When the fixed term interest rate period expired, interest rates were much higher than the original rate, and homeowners couldn’t afford to pay the mortgage, or sell their houses, because so The student has analysed the impacts of the global financial crisis by comparing how different sectors were affected and explained why the impacts were not equally felt by all NZ society. Example of student response: (from an international and a New Zealand perspective): The crisis was initially attributed to the sub-prime mortgage market in the U.S., which involved largely unregulated mortgage brokers, lending to Page 7 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE demand, things like expensive cars and hotels. Firms who produce the basic necessities were more able to cope with the recession because consumers still have to buy their products, things like food and petrol. Some firms have had to make people redundant and so the unemployed have less income to spend, also the government has to pay more in benefits, and spending to try and stimulate the economy, but is receiving less taxes like PAYE, GST, and company taxes, so has gone into a budget deficit. Export receipts have also fallen because the recession is global and consumers overseas are not buying NZ products, just like we are buying less imported goods and services. Banks have struggled to provide investment funding to firms because households are saving less, and it is more difficult to get overseas funds as well, because of the financial crisis in the USA and Europe. IMPACT ON BUSINESS CYCLE: The trend shown on the diagram shows that while a peak or boom is usually followed by recession, because of the global financial crisis which hit us around Oct 2008 we have stayed in recession or a trough phase much longer than usual and the recovery from mid to late 2009 is weak. This means we have had decreased and even negative growth as the GDP figures have shown. many people had taken on these types of loans. So overall house prices went down. From October 2008 until about July 2009, a number of the very large banks expected a lot of their customers to be unable to repay their loans as the mortgage interest rates in the United States had been low for a very long time. LINK Because of this, banks became much more cautious about their lending and stopped lending funds, or charged a very high rate of interest. Businesses stopped being able to access overdraft facilities, and this meant that businesses started to go into liquidation. LINK Some of the worst affected economies were G7 countries. Australia and New Zealand were also been affected by the rapid devaluation of bank assets held by overseas financial institutions. IMPACT This meant that New Zealand and Australian banks were unwilling to increase their lending to homeowners or businesses in New Zealand which reduced the amount of expansion by firms and reduced the demand for purchasing houses. This resulted in an excess supply of houses for sale. Businesses also reduced their demand for employees, and this increased unemployment. Governments around the world have had to protect potentially failing banks, such as the bailout by the US government $700 Billion bailout package for the financial sector. Banks were worried that people would withdraw their money from the banks and banks would not have cash reserves. IMPACT In New Zealand and Australia the government put into place the New Zealand Deposit Guarantees Scheme, so customers of banks and some finance companies felt safer with their savings. The decrease in the demand for commodities in This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 higher risk clients. Later the credit re-rating pushed down the price of bonds and other financial assets, and the losses were too large for the U.S. financial system to cover because it didn’t have enough capital. This triggered panic among U.S. consumers that many of these institutions would become bankrupt, so consumers stopped investing. Because of a collapse in economic confidence and then a collapse in economic growth, weakening business and consumer confidence led to a collapse of economic growth in New Zealand. The collapse was more severe because of overpriced assets like the housing market, funded by readily available credit from banks, which consumers kept borrowing against. When house prices fell again, borrowers started defaulting on their loans. This also happened in New Zealand. Consumers went on a borrowing binge because credit was so easily accessible, companies also borrowed (for leverage), so debt in relation to GDP grew to huge levels. This is also true of consumption in New Zealand. Loose fiscal (such as tax cuts) and monetary policy and low interest rates led to easy and relatively cheap borrowing, so consumers were not saving in the U.S., or the U.K. New Zealanders were not good savers either. After the collapse around Oct 2008, governments increased fiscal spending (such as housing insulation grants in New Zealand) to try and stimulate their economies and some had to bail out their financial institutions. The New Zealand government offered deposit guarantees to add stability and security, and encourage investment to continue. Page 8 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE countries like US and the UK because businesses were unsure of the future IMPACT meant that New Zealand producers were unable to increase their sales overseas and this meant that some households suffered unemployment. IMPACTS ON SECTORS: The government sector is receiving less tax revenue but is spending more to stimulate the economy, see http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/arc hive for the facts and figures of their expenditure, the government is spending to stimulate the economy; this is the (G) in the circular flow model and is an injection of money into the producer and household sectors. This happens via the subsidies and projects; households benefit from (G) spending by encouraging them to increase consumption, the (C) part of the circular flow model. The financial sector has been forced to reassess their financial position as they were faced with a rapid devaluation of their assets. They have been slow to lower their interest rates, the argument being that they have to keep domestic interest rates up to attract depositors, and they are also faced with higher rates from overseas financial markets, who they borrow from due to the shortage of savings locally. Banks are lending against property, viewed by them as safer assets, but are hesitant to lend to businesses, threatening our economic growth due to lack of investment. The financial sector has injected some money into the economy through lending against property and providing investment to some businesses. This is the (I) part of the circular flow model. They are maintaining higher domestic interest rates to attract depositors, which would be the leakage or withdrawal from the economy that comes from both the household and producer sectors, and is This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 [Source: US information simplified from article by Howard Davies. Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 3, September 2009.] IMPACTS ON SECTORS: The government sector is receiving less tax revenue but is spending more to stimulate the economy, see http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/arc hive for the facts and figures of their expenditure, the government is spending to stimulate the economy; this is the (G) in the circular flow model and is an injection of money into the producer and household sectors. This happens via the subsidies and projects; households benefit from (G) spending by encouraging them to increase consumption, the (C) part of the circular flow model. The financial sector has been forced to reassess their financial position as they were faced with a rapid devaluation of their assets. They have been slow to lower their interest rates, the argument being that they have to keep domestic interest rates up to attract depositors, and they are also faced with higher rates from overseas financial markets, who they borrow from due to the shortage of savings locally. Banks are lending against property, viewed by them as safer assets, but are hesitant to lend to businesses, threatening our economic growth due to lack of investment. The financial sector has injected some money into the economy through lending against property and providing investment to some businesses. This is the (I) part of the circular flow model. They are maintaining higher domestic interest rates to attract depositors which would be the leakage or withdrawal from the economy that comes from both the household and producer sectors, and is the (S) part of the circular flow model. They need savings so they can lend it back out into the Page 9 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE the (S) part of the circular flow model. They need savings so they can lend it back out into the economy as (I). The household and producer sectors have many of the impacts mentioned in Appendix A, but there are signs that consumption is increasing again with the government using expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate the economy via injections into the producer and household sectors, such as subsidies and projects that create employment and enable households to benefit from government spending, for example, the insulation scheme available to homes built before 2000. The producers also gain from the increased (C) demand which provides them with revenue (Y), and creates more employment, which also provides more income (Y) for households, so more (C) creating a positive cycle. The (X) receipts are down due to lack of overseas demand and a higher New Zealand dollar, so net export (X-M) income is down. IMPACT ON BUSINESS CYCLE: The global financial crisis has negatively impacted on consumption because consumers have less income due to increased unemployment. Unemployment has risen due to redundancies and business closures, so total demand has fallen further than we would normally see in the New Zealand business cycle due to decreased income and lack of available capital. Investment is needed to keep businesses afloat in this time of deepened recession or extended downturn in the business cycle. Banks are not loaning to small- and medium-sized businesses. With decreased investment, there is little or no growth in productive capacity due to lack of investment, banks are mainly loaning against safer assets like property, which doesn’t increase productive capacity. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 economy as (I). The household and producer sectors have many of the impacts mentioned in Appendix A, but there are signs that consumption is increasing again with the government using expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate the economy via injections into the producer and household sectors, such as subsidies and projects that create employment and enable households to benefit from government spending, for example, the insulation scheme available to homes built before 2000. The producers also gain from the increased (C) demand which provides them with revenue (Y), and creates more employment, which also provides more income (Y) for households, so more (C) creating a positive cycle. The (X) receipts are down due to lack of overseas demand and a higher New Zealand dollar, so net export (X-M) income is down. COMPARING IMPACTS: The impacts felt by producers differ to consumers because producers are concerned with producing final goods/services and keeping people in jobs, productivity, and maximising profits. Consumers are more concerned about meeting their basic needs, keeping their jobs, and increasing their personal wealth and assets. These two sectors are interdependent to fulfil these needs/wants. Unfortunately, due to the global financial crisis, many businesses had to close or downsize, which meant many consumers lost jobs and their main source of income, which therefore reduces total demand for final goods/services, and jeopardises their assets. Producers lose profits through reduced output and decreased productivity. Producers rely on the overseas sector for imported raw materials and to export final goods/services for income. The global Page 10 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Because this is a global financial crisis, there has also been a negative effect on net export income. This has meant further job losses in tourism and other export/import businesses. The government has increased spending to try and minimise the negative impact of this global financial crisis, and to stimulate the economy by injecting money into it through various projects. They have also provided tax cuts, which have increased disposable income for many consumers in a bid to try and increase consumption, and increase total demand to create an upturn or a recovery in the New Zealand business cycle. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 financial crisis has meant decreased demand for tourist activities and for New Zealand goods. The weak U.S. dollar has had a negative impact on our exporters’ income, but will help the income of U.S exporters. Imported goods/services become cheaper though and this will assist producers who use imported raw materials in production. Producers need the financial sector for investment purposes to increase productive capacity and create economic growth for an economy. Both are concerned with making profits and protecting their business interests. Banks see many businesses as risky ventures in the financial crisis and prefer to loan against safer assets like property, which is fine for consumers who want to increase wealth, but not great for businesses who need the finance to keep their businesses afloat or to expand. The government is concerned with the economy and uses fiscal policy to maintain economic stability. It has used expenditure to stimulate consumption through tax cuts, and subsidies that assist producers who are part of the industries involved in the funded projects. This also creates employment. The government needs tax as revenue to spend and the financial crisis has meant a smaller tax take, so they are running a budget deficit, which tax payers will have to fund longer term. However, not all New Zealanders have experienced hardship, as many consumers did not have deposits in finance companies or banks in financial trouble, and have retained their usual employment, so for these people life is pretty much the same as before or better as interest rates came down, lowering mortgage repayments. The wealthier or older members of our society have been more affected and may have lost life savings or investments, and banks faced devaluation of assets and have lost profits, but I Page 11 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE would say overall NZ has not been as badly affected as some of the other bigger economies; this is largely due to our tighter banking regulations, and more conservative approach to lending. IMPACT ON BUSINESS CYCLE: During an upswing in our normal business cycle, investment increases as producers undertake new investment to meet growing demand. However, producers eventually have in place the investment they need and so they slow or stop new investment. This slowing in investment means that there is a reduction in total demand in the economy. AD = C + I + G + (X – M), when I falls. Therefore, incomes start to fall and consumption spending (C) so total demand (AD) in the economy falls. For example, workers in the investment industries such as building industry employees, start to lose their jobs. Firms now reduce their output because of falling demand. This process stops when investment, employment, and growth are at a minimum. Extra investment is needed at this point to maintain production because of depreciation, etc., and so the next upturn or recovery is created. However, with the impact of the financial crisis, the upturn never happened and the recession period in New Zealand deepened, worsened by banks not supplying the investment needed to keep small and medium businesses afloat. Unemployment has risen due to redundancies and business closures, so total demand has fallen further than what we would normally see in the New Zealand business cycle due to decreased income and lack of available capital. Because this is now a global recession, it has also negatively affected net export income. This has created further job losses in tourism and other export/import businesses. The This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 12 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE government has increased spending to try and minimise the negative impacts of the financial crisis, and stimulate the economy by injecting money into it through various projects. They have also provided tax cuts, which has increased disposable income for many consumers in a bid to try and increase consumption and lead the country into a recovery period. Final grades will be decided using professional judgement based on a holistic examination of the evidence provided against the criteria in the Achievement Standard. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 13 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Appendix A: Oct 2008–2009 Impacts of Global Financial crisis on New Zealand sectors – Solid arrows (Money flows) Impacts on Financial Sector Rapid devaluation of bank assets. Harder & costlier to obtain funds from overseas financial Impacts on Overseas Sector – markets. Bad debts due to unpaid loans and bankruptcies. Mortgagee sales. Less (S) – – Fewer loans Less consumption, so less demand for New Zealand goods. Higher unemployment, so less income. Less holidays being taken, so less tourists to N Z. Consumer spending decreased, so Redundancies as producers cannot continue in business or have had to downsize. Households who invested in failed companies have lost a lot of their wealth and assets. Households who have to sell property as they can’t service the home loans due to reduced income or equity as the value of their property decreased. First home buyers are finding it tougher to get home loans from banks. Many families struggle to meet their basic needs, as unemployment rises. Less (C) Less (Y) wages/salary Impacts on Government Sector Less PAYE (T) Less (X) receipts Impacts on Producer Sector Impacts on Household Sector Less (M) payments Less (I) producers’ sales and profits decreased. Due to the strengthening Kiwi dollar, our exporters have suffered losses. Banks have become hesitant about lending money to businesses, so capital formation has been hindered. Investors have become wary of investing in the share market, which means less investment in New Zealand companies. Less GST & (T) Less GST receipts due to lower consumption. Less PAYE Less PAYE as workers are made redundant. Increase in transfer payments for increasing More (G) spending unemployment. This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 14 of 15 Internal assessment resource Economics 2.7A v2 for Achievement Standard 91228 PAGE FOR TEACHER USE Appendix B: Oct 2008 - 2010 Economic Activity Oct ’08- We were already in a technical recession, but the global financial crisis deepened our recession period, and it has resulted in no economic growth till June ’09 which saw a 0.1% growth, which carried onto a slow economic recovery into 2010. Trend growth path ‘08 ‘09 June ‘10 Time Appendix B: Economic activity fell by 0.2% in the September 2010 quarter, below market expectations of a small rise. This was the first fall in real GDP since the economy exited recession in the June 2009 quarter and follows growth of only 0.1% in the June 2010 quarter. While some of the slowing in growth reflects disruptions from the Canterbury earthquake, the economic recovery clearly lost momentum over the middle of 2010 as domestic demand remained subdued and business confidence softened. Highlighting the slow and patchy nature of the recovery, real GDP still remains 1.8% below its December 2007 peak. http://www.dol.govt.nz/lmr/lmr-economic-growth.asp This resource is copyright © Crown 2015 Page 15 of 15