Output for a modelling system for Latvia The component 1 of the project fiche stipulated that the twinning objective was to select and/or develop the best suitable models for Latvian conditions which ensure assessment of impact of different diffuse and point source load to surface water quality. The first step of this project was to develop a framework for a modelling system for Latvia with the aim of building a comprehensive framework to link data as a basis for modelling in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. This first report outlines the rationale for the framework we developed and which serves as a basis for project. Several issues and challenges had to be taken into account: 1. From the WFD point of view There are two main objectives: i) assessment of aquatic ecosystem functioning and ii) protection and restoration of water quality. Several questions are still pending because of the lack of sound scientific knowledge. Therefore they need to be addressed carefully because there is not yet any scientific consensus on them. Assessment of aquatic ecosystem functioning o What is a healthy ecosystem? Beside the WFD definition, there is a lot of controversy on how to define a healthy ecosystem both in terms of pertinent indicators (see below) and the timeframe of analysis. o What is a reference site? The challenge here is to find sites which are in a healthy status within an ecoregion and socio-economic context because they should constitute the target objective of restoration measures. o What are the pertinent indicators of functioning? Most of the indicators focus on rather descriptive (geochemistry) or integrative (biodiversity) parameters, but none of them really addresses the ecosystem functioning per se. Moreover, the monitoring time and space frames are not easy to set up since most of these indicators naturally vary both in time and space. Protection and restoration of water quality o Resistance and resilience of the ecosystems These fundamental concepts are crucial for our understanding of the reaction of ecosystems to perturbation, both in term of resistance to disturbance and trajectory of recovery after the disturbance has stopped. River management plan Implicitly this requires to understand or at least to be able to forecast both the resistance and resilience of river ecosystems under the pressure of several types of disturbances and under climate change. 2. From the modelling point of view No model can do it all There is a need to find the most suitable model depending on the objective, the expected output and the required/available data. Trade-off between complexity of model and data requirement Deterministic models (process oriented) need a high level of data both in terms of diversity and quantity but can tackle high level of complexity, while empirical or 1 statistical models only provide trends out of a black box type of model; yet they do not require the same level of data. 3. From the Latvian situation point of view Physical, biological and economic characteristics of Latvian aquatic ecosystems Several natural features should be considered, including, high natural concentration of organic carbon, sensitive water bodies to eutrophication (mires, shallow lakes and gulf of Riga) and pick flood events driven by snowmelt. Moreover, there have been significant land cover and land use changes since 1990. Availability of data Analysis of data quality (type of measurements) and quantity (space and time) has to be done (see report on assessment on data availability and quality). The framework for the modelling system for Latvia has been considered and elaborated based on the above-mentioned issues. Modelling, although not specifically stipulated in the WFD, is often suggested as a powerful tool to fulfil these analyses. This is particularly relevant for Article 5 of the WFD “Characteristics of the river basin district, review of the environmental impact of human activity and economic analysis of water use”. It is clear that modelling cannot replace monitoring since reliable data are necessary to adapt/test the model to local conditions. However, models can help reduce the overall monitoring effort, or provide knowledge on monitoring methodology. Spatially, models can forecast water quality and fluxes in non-monitored sites under similar conditions. Temporally, models can forecast trends at a more accurate time scale than the monitoring. Figure 1: Framework of a modelling system for Latvia in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. Texts in red refer to compulsory requirements of the WFD. Numbers are explained in the text below. Arrows symbolise the flow of data. Blue lozenges represent the required models. 2 Assessment and restoration measures required by the European WFD can both benefit from modelling tools (Figure 1). A combination of hydrological and coefficient export models (Figure 1, n°1) can help designing the operational monitoring (Annex II of the WFD): These models will provide an analytical tool for surveillance monitoring data (Annex II §1.3.1 & §2.4.1 of the WFD). They will also contribute to the selection of operational monitoring sites (Annex II §1.3.2 & §2.4.2 of the WFD). Ecosystem process models (Figure 1, n°2) will offer a mechanistic understanding of the investigative monitoring sites (Annex II §1.3.3 of the WFD). They can also help to determine the natural buffering capacity of aquatic ecosystems, which is the underlying process of resistance of ecosystems to disturbance. Water quality models (Figure 1, n°3) will analyse the spatial and temporal trends required in the Article 4 “Environmental Objectives” of the WFD. These models will also constitute a support for public awareness required in Article 14 “Public information and consultation” and reporting (Article 15). Finally, spatially-distributed processed based models (Figure 1, n°4) will propose interactive modelling tools for management plan analysis and scenarios analysis under human impact as stipulated in article 13 “River basin management plans” of the WFD. The model selection and their implementation/customization have to be done in the context of the existing and foreseen data, database and geographic information systems. These elements are elaborated in the report on “Assessment of data availability and quality” and in the report on “Applicable models and recommendations”. 3