EMBARGO: 14:00 U.S. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, 15 January 2015,
(19:00 GMT (UK), 20:00 CET and 06:00 Australian Eastern Daylight 16
January)
Four of nine planetary boundaries now crossed
KEY POINTS
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The concept of planetary boundaries has been updated with new assessments
and quantifications.
Climate change and biosphere integrity identified as core planetary
boundaries.
Four boundaries are assessed to have been crossed, placing humanity in a
danger zone: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change,
altered biogeochemical cycles (fertiliser use - phosphorus and nitrogen).
Crossing boundaries raises the risks to current and future societies of
destabilising the Earth System – the complex interactions of land, ocean,
atmosphere, ice sheets, life and people.
Internationally agreed upper climate limit of 2 degrees lies beyond the
climate change boundary: which makes 2 degrees a risky target for
humanity, and therefore an absolute minimum target for the global climate
negotiations.
Complementary research published simultaneously charts “The Great
Acceleration” in human impact on the Earth System over the last 60 years.
Four of nine planetary boundaries have now been crossed as a result of human
activity, says an international team of 18 researchers in the journal Science (16
January). The four are: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system
change, altered biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and nitrogen).
The scientists say that two of these, climate change and biosphere integrity, are “core
boundaries”. Significantly altering either of these “core boundaries” would “drive the
Earth System into a new state”.
The team will present their findings in seven seminars at the World Economic Forum
in Davos (21-24 January).
Lead author, Professor Will Steffen from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, at
Stockholm University and the Australian National University, Canberra, said:
“Transgressing a boundary increases the risk that human activities could inadvertently
drive the Earth System into a much less hospitable state, damaging efforts to reduce
poverty and leading to a deterioration of human wellbeing in many parts of the world,
including wealthy countries. In this new analysis we have improved our quantification
of where these risks lie.”
The planetary boundaries concept, first published in 2009, identifies nine global
priorities relating to human-induced changes to the environment. The science shows
that these nine processes and systems regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth
System – the interactions of land, ocean, atmosphere and life that together provide
conditions upon which our societies depend.
Nine planetary boundaries
1. Climate change
2. Change in biosphere integrity (biodiversity loss and species extinction)
3. Stratospheric ozone depletion
4. Ocean acidification
5. Biogeochemical flows (phosphorus and nitrogen cycles)
6. Land-system change (for example deforestation)
7. Freshwater use
8. Atmospheric aerosol loading (microscopic particles in the atmosphere that
affect climate and living organisms)
9. Introduction of novel entities (e.g. organic pollutants, radioactive materials,
nanomaterials, and micro-plastics).
Managing these priorities at safe global levels will enable world development within a
safe operating space on Earth, say the researchers. The new research builds on a large
number of scientific publications critically assessing and improving the planetary
boundaries research since its original publication. It confirms the original set of
boundaries and provides updated analysis and quantification for several of them,
including phosphorus and nitrogen cycles, land-system change, freshwater use and
biosphere integrity. Biosphere integrity relates to the scale and impact of humans on
ecosystems.
As human activity pushes the Earth System beyond planetary boundaries and into
zones of increasing risk, marine ecosystems may change dramatically as a result of
ocean acidification and eutrophication, or temperatures may rise so high as to pose
significant threats to agricultural production, infrastructure and human health. The
paper reports that continuing degradation of biosphere integrity will likely further
erode the provision of ecosystem services on which human societies depend.
“Past a certain threshold, curbing greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, or
land-use change, for example, may not reverse or even slow the trends of Earth
System degradation, with potentially catastrophic consequences,” said Professor
Steffen.
“Planetary Boundaries do not dictate how human societies should develop but they
can aid decision-makers by defining a safe operating space for humanity,” says coauthor Katherine Richardson from the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and
Climate, University of Copenhagen.
This week, co-author Professor Johan Rockström, director of the Stockholm
Resilience Centre, will present the new findings at the World Economic Forum. “In
the last four years we have worked closely with policymakers, industry and
organisations like WWF to explore how the planetary boundaries approach can be
used as a framework for sectors of societies to reduce risk while developing
sustainably.”
“It is obvious that different societies over time have contributed very differently to the
current state of the earth. The world has a tremendous opportunity this year to address
global risks, and do it more equitably. In September, nations will agree the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals. With the right ambition, this could create the
conditions for long-term human prosperity within planetary boundaries,” he said.
Eight of the nine planetary boundaries have been quantified (see table at end). With
climate change, for example, the team argue that carbon dioxide levels should not
cross 350 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere. “This boundary is consistent
with a stabilisation of global temperatures at about 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels,” said Professor Rockström.
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently about 399ppm (December
2014) and growing at about 3ppm per year.
In December 2015, nations will meet in Paris to negotiate an international emissions
agreement to attempt to stabilise temperatures at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
“Our analysis suggests that, even if successful, reaching this target contains
significant risks for societies everywhere. Two degrees must therefore be seen not
only as a necessary but also a minimum global climate target,” said Professor
Rockström.
The planetary boundaries research coincides with a second analysis, also led by
Professor Will Steffen, that charts “The Great Acceleration” in human activity since
1950. The paper, “The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration”,
focuses on a planetary “dashboard” of 24 social, economic and environmental
indicators. The assessment concludes that the global economic system is the prime
driver of change of key components of the Earth System, supporting the need for a
precautionary approach to transgressing planetary boundaries.
Notes to editors
Planetary Boundaries
(Red indicates a boundary has been transgressed)
Planetary
Boundary
Control
Variable(s)
Boundary
The value in brackets
indicates the estimated
zone of uncertainty
Current
Value
Climate
change
Atmospheric
CO2
concentration,
ppm
350 ppm CO2 (350-450
ppm)
396.5 ppm
CO2
Energy imbalance: +1.0 W
m-2 (+1.0-1.5 W m-2)
2.3 W m-2
(1.1-3.3 W m2
)
Energy
imbalance at
top-ofatmosphere,
(Watts per metre
squared, Wm-2)
Change in
biosphere
integrity
Genetic
diversity:
Extinction rate
Functional:
diversity:
Biodiversity
Intactness Index
(BII)
Stratospheri Stratospheric O3
c ozone
concentration,
depletion
Dobson Units
Ocean
acidificatio
n
Biogeoche
mical
flows:
(Phosphoru
s and
Nitrogen
cycles)
Carbonate ion
concentration,
average global
surface ocean
saturation state
with respect to
aragonite
(Ωarag )
Phosphorus
cycle:
Global:
Phosphorus flow
from freshwater
systems into the
ocean
Genetic: less than 10
extinctions per million
species-years (E/MSY),
(10-100 E/MSY)
Functional: Maintain the
Biodiversity Intactness
Index at 90% (90-30%) or
above, assessed
geographically by
biomes/large regional
areas (e.g. southern
Africa), major marine
ecosystems (e.g., coral
reefs) or by large
functional groups
<5% reduction from preindustrial level of 290
Dobson Units (5%–10%),
assessed by latitude
≥80% of the pre-industrial
aragonite saturation state
of mean surface ocean,
including natural diel and
seasonal
variability ( ≥80%– ≥70%)
Phosphorus cycle:
Global: 11 Tg P yr-1 (11100 Tg P yr-1)
100-1000
E/MSY
84%, applied
to southern
Africa only
Only
transgressed
over Antarctica
in Austral
spring (~200
DU)
~84% of the
pre-industrial
aragonite
saturation state
~22 Tg P yr-1
Regional:
Phosphorus flow Regional: 6.2 Tg yr-1
~14 Tg P yr-1
from fertilizers
mined and applied to
to erodible soils erodible (agricultural) soils
(6.2-11.2 Tg yr-1).
Boundary is a global
average but regional
distribution is critical for
Nitrogen cycle: impacts.
Global:
Industrial and
62 Tg N yr-1 (62-82 Tg N
~150 Tg N yr-1
-1
intentional
yr ). Boundary acts as a
biological
global ‘valve’ limiting
fixation of
nitrogen.
Landsystem
change
Freshwater
use
Atmospheri
c aerosol
loading
introduction of new
reactive nitrogen to the
Earth System, but regional
distribution of fertilizer
nitrogen is critical for
impacts.
Global: area of
Global: 75% (75-54%)
62%
forested land
Values are a weighted
as % of original average of the three
forest cover
individual biome
boundaries and their
uncertainty zones
Biome: area of
Biome:
forested land
Tropical: 85% (85-60%)
as % of potential Temperate: 50% (50-30%)
forest
Boreal: 85% (85-60%)
Global:
Global: 4000 km3 yr-1
~2600 km3 yr-1
3
-1
Maximum
(4000-6000 km yr )
amount of
consumptive
blue water use
(km3yr-1)
Basin: Maximum monthly
withdrawal as a percentage
Basin: Blue
of mean monthly river
water
flow. For low-flow
withdrawal as % months: 25% (25-55%);
of mean
for intermediate-flow
monthly river
months: 30% (30-60%);
flow
for high-flow months:
55% (55-85%)
Global: Aerosol
Optical Depth
(AOD), but
much regional
variation
Regional: AOD
as a seasonal
average over a
region. South
Asian Monsoon
used as a case
study
Introductio
n of novel
entities
No control
variable
currently
defined
Regional: (South Asian
0.30 AOD,
Monsoon as a case study): over South
anthropogenic total
Asian region
(absorbing and scattering)
AOD over Indian
subcontinent of 0.25 (0.250.50); absorbing
(warming) AOD less than
10% of total AOD
No boundary currently
identified, but see
boundary for
stratospheric ozone for an
example of a boundary
related to a novel entity
(CFCs)
Further information
Research papers
Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet (Science) 16
January 2015. Available on request.
The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review)
16 January 2015. Available on request.
Background papers
Discussions about the planetary boundaries started in 2008 at a workshop convened
by Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute and the Tällberg
Foundation.
A safe operating space for humanity (Nature) 24 September 2009.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html
Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity’, Ecology and
Society, 14 (2), 32.
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
Imagery available on request
Planetary boundaries figure
24 Great Acceleration graphs
Links for more information
Planetary boundaries research
www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetaryboundaries.html
Planetary boundaries
www.sei-international.org/planetary-boundaries
Identifying chemicals that are Planetary boundary threats
www.sei-international.org/publications?pid=2579
Contact
Fredrik Moberg
Communications
Stockholm Resilience Centre
fredrik.moberg@stockholmresilience.su.se
Tel: +46 (0)70 680 65 53
Owen Gaffney
Communications
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (Stockholm)
owen.gaffney@igbp.kva.se
Tel: +46(0) 730208418
Ylva Rylander
Communications
Stockholm Environment Institute
ylva.rylander@sei-international.org
Phone: +46 (0) 731503384
Contributing institutions
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University,
Canberra, Australia
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum,
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
McGill University, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Québec, Canada
Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
University of Wisconsin, Madison WI USA
Wageningen University Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Stockholm University, Sweden
Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden
Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
University College, London, UK
Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla CA USA
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Stellenbosch, South Africa
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden