3. Early predictions of users` opinion

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COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE
1999
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TECHNICAL REPORT No. TR 99/03/04
“Measuring User’s Perception and Opinion
of Software Quality”
Dimitris Stavrinoudis, Michalis Xenos,
Pavlos Peppas, Dimitris Christodoulakis
March, 1999
Abstract
This paper presents a method for modeling users’ perception of software quality. The
method aims to improve the quality of data derived from user opinion surveys and facilitate
the analysis of such data. Additionally, using aspects of Belief Revision theory, the
proposed model offers a way to measure users’ opinion in early stages of product release
and a way of predicting the opinion subsequently formed after their opinion revisions using
the initial measurements. The paper presents graphical examples from modeling users’
perception of software quality and of handling the users’ belief revision. Finally,
conclusions from our case studies and data analysis are presented.
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1. Introduction
The value of surveys is well recognized in measuring product quality characteristics, as the
customers perceive these characteristics. Moreover, international standards such as ISO9001
(ISO9001, 1991), IEEE (IEEE, 1989), Baldrige (Brown, 1991) and CMM (Bate, 1995),
(Curtis 1995) encourage software production companies to measure users’ perceived quality
of their products. Not only are surveys indicators in themselves, but they also allow more
sophisticated analysis techniques which are required of organizations with higher levels of
quality maturity. Furthermore, surveys commonly allow one to focus on just the issues of
interest; and, as a result, are quantifiable and thus provide a convenient way to bring the
power of statistics to bear.
However, in surveys some difficulties arise related to the quality of data, the high cost of
conducting the survey and the usual revisions of the customers’ opinion of the product until
these define themselves sufficiently. In addition, the procedure of measuring users’
perception of quality is timeconsuming, especially when conducting the survey when the
results need to be reaffirmed by subsequent surveys. As a result, the following goals must be
achieved: a) improve the accuracy of the input from the surveys, b) improve the analysis and
the interpretation of the derived results from the surveys and c) find a way of modeling the
belief revision of the customers so as, not only to extrapolate their opinion in the early stages
of product release, but also their final opinion. The aim of this paper is to offer a model aimed
at meeting the aforementioned goals, provide the guidelines for ensuring and improving the
quality of the surveys’ data and, finally, analyze the data, thus allowing the prediction of
users’ opinion revisions.
In order to achieve the first goal, the opinion of users is evaluated in relation to their overall
computerusing ability and their ability to use a particular product. As regards the second and
the third goal, rules from Belief Revision theory and Grove’s Systems of Spheres (Grove,
1988) have been adapted within the proposed method. Our goal is to represent, in a
comprehensive manner, the way that the opinion of users may be revised. Moreover, various
cases of users and how to apply the Grove’s Systems of Spheres rules in each of them are
presented and analysed. All the software quality factors with which the enduser is concerned
are dealt with in our model to present the way a revision of the opinion of users in one factor
may also change their opinion in others.
In the next chapter the formulas used for measuring users’ opinion, the analysis and the
findings of these measurements are presented. In chapter 3 rules of Grove’s System of
Spheres and the proposed model are presented.
2. Modeling users’ perception measurements
The conclusion reached in our previous research (Xenos, 1996) is that, although
developeroriented and useroriented software quality measurements are highly correlated,
satisfaction of internal quality standards does not guarantee a priori success in fulfilling the
customers’ demand for quality. Consequently, the measurement and the evaluation of the
opinion of users and perception of a software product are essential. What must also be taken
under consideration is the differentiation of the users’ opinion of quality over time. The
conclusions reached from the juxtaposition of this differentiation between the experienced
and the inexperienced users are to be analyzed in the following sections.
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2.1 Measuring users’ opinion
In order to measure users’ opinion of software quality we focused on the useroriented
quality characteristics derived from the FactorCriteriaMetrics model (McCall, 1977). In
order to collect the measurements of the users’ opinion, a multiplechoice format was used in
the questionnaires in order to guide the user to select predefined responses that were ordered
in interval scales (with choice bars, percentage estimations, etc.). This method can also be
applied by focusing on the user-oriented quality characteristics derived from the ISO9126
(ISO9126, 1991) standard (functionality, reliability, efficiency, usability).
Examples of the questions used in these questionnaires are the following: “What is your
opinion of the product’s accuracy and consistency?”, “Is invalid data entry properly
recognized?”, “Are all functions that relate to the window available when needed?”, “Is help
available for each item and is it context sensitive?”.
Formulas (1) and (2) were used in the surveys conducted. These formulas weigh users’
opinions according to their qualifications. In QWCO (Qualifications Weighed Customer
Opinion) method (Xenos, 1995), which uses formula (1), Oi, measures the normalised
measured results of user’s i opinion and Ei measures the qualifications of user i. Finally, n is
the number of users who participated in the survey. Therefore, each user contributes to the
average according to his/her qualifications.
n
QWCO 
 O  E 
i
i 1
i
(1)
n
E
i 1
i
In QWCODS (Qualifications Weighed Customer Opinion with Double Safeguards) (Xenos,
1997), a number of safeguards were embedded into the questionnaires. Safeguards are
questions placed inside the questionnaire so as to measure the correctness of responses and
not aimed at measuring user perceived quality. They are control questions aiming at detecting
errors. In equation (2), Si is the number of safeguards that the user i has replied to correctly
and ST is the total number of safeguards. Since the use of the QWCUDS technique implies the
use at least of one safeguard in the questionnaire, division by S T is always valid. In this
method, safeguards were used not only to detect errors when measuring customer’s opinion,
but also to detect errors when measuring customers’ qualifications. In equation (2), Pi value
can be 0 or 1. The value of Pi is zero when at least one error has been detected when
measuring the qualifications of customer i. Pi value is set to 1 only if no error has been
detected. This method results in the rejection of a customer’s responses if errors were
detected while measuring his/her qualifications.

 Pi 
i 1
T

 n


S
 Ei  i  Pi 

ST
i 1 

n

Si
  O  E  S
i
QWCODS
i
(2)
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These methods were used in various software products measuring the opinion of users, whose
levels of experience differed. The results of the measurements and the analysis method are
presented in the following section.
2.2 Analysing measurements over time
In order to measure users’ opinion of a software product efficiently, surveys in fixed time
intervals must be conducted. Despite the fact that such a practice cannot be applied in a
professional setting due to the high cost, monthly surveys were conducted for the
requirements of this research using the same sample of users for the same software products.
For the analysis of the measurements, the users were divided into two main categories, the
experienced and the inexperienced users. Figure 1 shows the derivations of these surveys.
In this figure the limits of the differentiation of the user’s opinion over time are illustrated.
The horizontal bar represents the time in monthly intervals and the vertical bar represents the
user’s opinion, which was measured using the formulas mentioned above. The user’s opinion
in each survey takes values from 0 to 1. The line AvOp represents the average users’ opinion
of the quality of the software product, formed after the final opinion of users has been
measured. The opinion of experienced users over time varies between the curves e1 and e2,
whereas the opinion of inexperienced users over time varies between the curves ne1 and ne2.
Figure 1: Boundaries of users opinion
The experienced users, in contrast to the inexperienced, form an opinion for the quality of the
product from the early stages of its release, which is very close to their final opinion. On the
contrary, the inexperienced users will form an opinion close to their final opinion after using
the software product for a long period of time. The length of this period depends on the
complexity of the product, the number and the variety of the functions it supports, the amount
of usage and the conditions under which usage occurs, as well as usage of similar software
products. This period of time usually varies from six to twelve months, when the user is
experienced in the use of this specific product.
After a period of time, the line AvOp usually starts to decline as the user requirements usually
increase over time. This phenomenon is dependent on factors, such as the similar software
products that may be released and the advances in hardware. It was also observed that when
an experienced user gives the software a higher score than his final score or vice versa, this
does not display fluctuations but is seemed to slowly close the gap between the high or low
score and the final score. Amongst inexperienced users, however, such predictable variability
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was not observed; opinion fluctuated between widely ne1 και ne2. Over time, the degree of
fluctuation receded to the users’ final opinion of the product quality. For example, the
differentiation of inexperienced users’ opinion over time can be intimated by the diagram of
figure 2, where UO represents an example of the changes in a user’s opinion.
This fluctuation results from the inexperienced user either finding a new feature of the
product, which has remained undiscovered or has uncovered some aspect of the product,
which the user has sought and has not found up till now and, as a result, rates the product
highly. Similarly, if the user uncovers a flaw in the product (whether real or perceived), the
user will rate it lowly regardless of whether the aforementioned flaw could not have been
avoided at the production stage.
Figure 2: Fluctuation of inexperienced users’ opinion
Software quality factors are not clearly perceived by inexperienced users. If they discover a
characteristic indicating that the product fails in one particular factor, then they consider that
the product fails in all the other areas as well. On the contrary, experienced users do clearly
perceive the independent nature of these factors. After a justifiable time period, inexperienced
users become accustomed to the new features or flaws they discover in the product and, as a
result, their opinion begin to lean towards the final opinion as is the case with experienced
users.
2.3 Using findings to improve how surveys are conducted
From the measurements of the surveys, it is obvious that over time: a) the experienced users’
opinion of the quality of the software product approaches their final opinion and b) the
deviation of the inexperienced users’ opinion from their final opinion declines continuously.
Thus, the more a customer uses a product, the more weight must be given to his opinion. In
other words, the time factor must also be taken into account for effective measurements of
software quality.
The analysis of section 2.2 revealed that, after a long period of time, inexperienced users will
form an opinion that will be close enough to their final opinion of the quality of the product.
The length of this period may surpass six months. As a result, in order to define the quality of
a software product sufficiently in the early stages of its release, the sample of the users being
asked must be restricted to experienced users.
Additionally, in the early stages, the opinion of inexperienced users fluctuates greatly. Their
opinion can be considered only if the sample of users is large enough to be considered
representative, thus ensuring sound results. Moreover, the opinion of experienced users
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should be given greater weight than that of the inexperienced users, regardless of their being
fewer of the former. Furthermore, from the findings for individual user groups participating in
the surveys, it was also observed that the larger the degree of fluctuation in their opinion, the
more difficult it was for them to learn the features which are more relevant to their specific
context.
3. Early predictions of users’ opinion
From the findings it is clear that the weight of the customer’s opinion of the quality of a
software product increases over time. As a result, every new characteristic of the product
detected by the customer, which will undoubtedly lead to the revision of his belief for the
product, must be considered. Moreover, with each newlydiscovered feature, users become
more assured of the validity of their opinion. However, because of the high cost of surveys, a
simpler, faster and more automated way must be found, in order to estimate the revision of
the opinion of user groups without needing to conduct a new survey every while.
3.1 Using Systems of Spheres
Rules from Belief Revision theory, Grove’s Systems of Spheres, have been adapted to meet
the needs of this approach (Gardenfors, 1988), (Peppas, 1996). In this system, any belief set
K can be represented by the subset [K] of M that consists of all maximal sets where all the
sentences in K are included, where M is the set of all possible worlds that can be described in
a propositional language L.
Thus, a system of spheres centered on [K] is a collection S of subsets of M that can be
represented figuratively in figure 3. In this system the more innermost the sphere is, the more
possible the world centered on [K]. When a new sentence A appears to be true, with A  [K],
and A is always accepted to be reliable, the possible world must be revised in order to
encompass A. So the closest sphere (SA) must be taken, where SA  [A]  , in order to have
minimal changes to our first belief state. Our new world is now C(A)=[K*A]= SA  [A].
Figure 3: Grove’s System of Spheres
3.2 Designing the model
Adapting Grove’s System of Spheres rules, an alternative model for representing user’s
opinion of software quality is presented. The points (e.g. the possible worlds) in this model
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represent user perceptions of the software product according to the software quality factors.
For every belief set K the user has for the quality of the product, there is a system of spheres
S in M centered on [K] that shows where his belief set is presented in M. Furthermore, this
belief set K must contain the user’s beliefs for the product in all the software quality factors.
The first step for designing this model is to find various characteristics and events for each
software quality factor, which indicate the users’ opinion for this factor. These
characteristicsevents are the sentences that determine the possible worlds of the model.
The second step is to represent all these possible worlds to the model. The model must be
separated with a line or curve into two parts for every single event E. One where the event
occurs (the Epart) and one where does not (the notEpart). If in a possible world Sx the
user is determined that the event E is true, then the Sx must be located into the Epart and
vice versa. But if the users are not determined for the event E (e.g. they don’t know whether it
happens or not) then the Sx must be located in both. After separating the model with lines for
every single event, knowing users’ opinion of these events, their possible world can be
represented to the model.
The third step is to determine how a possible world of a user group will change in the model,
when users revise their opinion of an event. The new possible worlds must be delimited by
the parts of the model in which the event does or does not occur. Moreover, it must be
determined in what way the users’ belief in the other events may change or not. If it does
change, this has direct and occasionally radical ramifications on their new possible world.
These revisions must have minimal changes and after finishing with all of them, the new
possible world will represent the new belief set of the user group about the quality of the
software product.
3.3 Modeling users categories
The analysis of section 2.2 revealed that users must be separated into categories according to
their experience, since their opinion of a software product alters in a different way. As a
result, the proposed model differs for each user category, because the revision of the opinion
in one quality criterion will produce different results in the belief set of each user category. In
other words, when inexperienced users discover that an event occurs or not, then their opinion
for the quality of the product will change in a higher degree than the opinion of experienced
users will.
Software quality factors are not clearly perceived by inexperienced users and when they are
either satisfied or dissatisfied with one, the other factors follow suit. As a result, a revision in
their opinion of one quality factor leads to the revision in their opinion of others. On the
contrary, according to the experienced users’ perception of quality, the different factors of
quality are not seen as being interdependent. In the experienced users case, a revision in the
opinion of one quality factor will affect the opinion of the other factors only if this revision is
of a radical nature.
The different level of interdependence among software quality factors, according to users’
opinion, leads to a model differently designed for each category of users. In the case of
experienced users, the boundaries that declare whether an event occurs or not are presented in
such a way, that a revision in an opinion of one event will result in minimal changes in their
belief set. In other words, these boundaries are independent. Therefore, no areas that are
dense in event boundaries are observed. Otherwise, if the belief set of a user was represented
by a sphere designed into this area, a revision in the opinion of one event would lead to a
radical revision, which is not observed in the case of experienced users. The model in this
case can be intimated by figure 4.
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Figure 4: Model of experienced users’ category
On the contrary, in the case of inexperienced users, every new characteristic of the software
product that has been detected differentiates their opinion of all the software quality factors.
As a result, the model in this case is designed in such a way, that the revision in users’
opinion of one factor leads to a revision of a radical nature. The possible world of
inexperienced users is not as stable as in the experienced users case. Since inexperienced
users have usually the opinion that the events of the model are interrelated, the boundaries of
these events must be in close proximity. The model has areas that are dense in event
boundaries and it is illustrated in figure 5.
Figure 5: Model of inexperienced users’ category
Figures 4 and 5 also illustrate the differentiation between the experienced users and the
inexperienced users, after a belief revision. For example, in the new world C(A), derived
from the revision in the event A, inexperienced users form an opinion of all the events
completely different from their initial one (opinion in world [K]). On the contrary,
experienced users could revise their opinion only in one additional event.
In conclusion, software production companies using this method must adapt the proposed
model to their particular needs. The boundaries of the events must be designed according to
the weight given to each software quality factor. Further research is currently planned in order
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to refine this model for each factor of the FactorCriteriaMetrics model (or for each quality
characteristic of the ISO-9126 standard). In that case, the events that determine the possible
worlds of the model will be related to the specific criteria of one single factor. Furthermore,
software production companies will be able to predict users’ opinion separately for each
software quality characteristic.
4. References
Bate Roger, et al: A Systems Engineering Capability Maturity Model, Version 1.1. Software
Engineering Institute, CMU/SEI-95-MM-003, November 1995.
Brown M. G.: Baldrige Award Winning Quality: How to Interpret the Malcom Baldrige
Award Criteria. Milwaukee, WI: ASQC Quality Press, 1991.
Curtis Bill et al: People Capability Maturity Model. Software Engineering Institute,
CMU/SEI-95-MM-02, September 1995.
Gardenfors Peter: Knowledge in Flux  Modeling the Dynamics of Epistemic States. MIT
Press, Cambridge, England, ISBN 0-262-07109-6, 1988.
Grove Adam: Two modelings for theory change. Journal of Philosophical Logic, 17, 157-170,
1988.
IEEE: Standard for a Software Quality Metrics Methodology. P-1061/D20, IEEE Press, New
York, 1989.
ISO9001: Quality Management and Quality Assurance Standards. International Standard,
ISO/IEC 9001: 1991.
ISO9126: Software Product Evaluation - Quality Characteristics and Guidelines for their Use,
ISO/IEC Standard ISO-9126, 1991
McCall J. A., Richards P. K. and Walters G. F.: Factors in Software Quality, Vols I, II, III.
US Rome Air Development Center Reports NTIS AD/A-049 014, 015, 055, 1977.
Peppas Pavlos: Well Behaved and Multiple Belief Revision. European Conference on
Artificial Intelligence, 1996.
Xenos M. and Christodoulakis D.: Software Quality: The User’s Point of View. pp. 266-272
of Software Quality and Productivity, Chapman & Hall, ISBN: 0-412-62960-7, 1995.
Xenos M., Stavrinoudis D. and Christodoulakis D.: The Correlation Between Developeroriented and User-oriented Software Quality Measurements (A Case Study). 5th European
Conference on Software Quality, EOQ-SC, Dublin, pp. 267-275, 1996.
Xenos M. and Christodoulakis D.: Measuring Perceived Software Quality. Information and
Software Technology Journal, Butterworth Publications UK, Vol. 39, pp. 417-424, June
1997.
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