The 2004 Hurricane Season in the Caribbean and the USA
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that is found in the North Atlantic Ocean. Typically, they
affect Central America, the Caribbean and the USA. Other tropical cyclones include
cyclones in the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and typhoons that affect Japan.
Hurricanes are low-pressure systems that bring wind speeds of up to 300 kilometres per
hour (typically 160 kilometres per hour) and up to 30–50 centimetres of rainfall. The 2004
hurricane season broke a number of records across the USA and the Caribbean as it
brought more havoc than usual to affected areas. Its impact on countries varied,
depending, in part, on their level of development and state of preparedness.
Hurricanes
Hurricanes or tropical cyclones are intense low-pressure systems, generally about 650 kilometres in
diameter, that bring violent storms, high winds and sea surges to tropical and subtropical areas. They
are also known as typhoons and affect a large proportion of the earth’s surface. Unlike temperate
depressions (also known as cyclones) tropical cyclones are not associated with any fronts. Cyclones
last for about a week – the intense low pressure causes strong winds, and raises sea level. Wind
speeds of over 160 kilometres per hour are common. One definition of a tropical cyclone is that it has
wind speeds of 32 metres per second or 63 knots per hour, and it develops in the tropics or subtropics.
Tropical cyclones develop mostly in summer and autumn. They include a ring of intense wind
surrounding a calm central eye. The eye, typically 12–50 kilometres wide, is cloudless with subsiding
calm warm air. Around the eye, winds rotate anticlockwise and updraughts are very strong. Rainfall is
intense – up to 200 centimetres per day.
The lowest recorded pressure was 876 mb in the northwest Pacific in 1975. Thus there is a rapid decline
of pressure as a cyclone approaches, up to 18 mb in eight hours. The steep pressure gradient causes
strong winds.
Figure 1.
A church being used as a hurricane shelter in Cavalla Hill, Montserrat.
Formation of a hurricane
A tropical hurricane has a life cycle of several days. In general, formation takes a few days while the
core is still cool, then it takes one to two days while the core warms and pressure drops. Finally there
are a few days of intensity, followed by a day or two while the hurricane dies. A number of factors are
needed for the formation of the tropical cyclone:
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High sea surface temperatures (SST) of 27ºC or more, hence tropical cyclones are found
largely between 20º south and 30º north.
Easterly waves.
Significant Coriolis force is needed to deflect winds so that they rotate around a low pressure
(thus cyclones occur beyond 5º of latitude).
Ocean moisture is needed as a supply of latent heat.
The troposphere needs to be free of high-level winds of great strength (they effectively remove
the lid of the cyclone).
Cyclone tracks are difficult to predict. Nevertheless in the Northern Hemisphere they move away from
the equator, travel westwards and then rotate and accelerate polewards. Once the air rises, it cools, and
on reaching saturation releases huge quantities of latent heat. This provides the storm with its energy.
Once a storm moves overland, it loses this source of energy. During the decaying stage, the cyclones
decay for a number of reasons:
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They move inland, which results in a lack of moisture or latent heat as well as increased friction
reducing wind action.
They move into colder areas.
The tropical cyclone remains stationary – cooling the sea beneath it.
It moves into higher latitudes where the Coriolis force is increased – reducing the cyclonic spin
relative to the ground.
Fast, upper winds sheer off the top of the cyclone, thus uplift is reduced.
The 2004 hurricane season
There was considerable hurricane activity in the Caribbean and the USA in 2004. Four major hurricanes
– Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne – affected the region, causing upwards of 2,000 deaths. The
accuracy and effectiveness of hurricane prediction and management varied considerably between the
hurricanes and the countries affected by them.
Hurricane Charley
The initial estimate of the economic loss caused by Hurricane Charley on Florida’s Gulf Coast between
13 and 15 August was $25 billion (£13 billion). The state's tourism and orange juice industries suffered
incalculable harm and farmers faced long-term financial worries. President Bush authorised a $2 billion
emergency-aid package. The storm killed twenty people in Florida and left thousands homeless. Several
hospitals were badly damaged and entire counties were left without power. Charley became the second
most expensive storm after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and the fourth most expensive insured event
after Andrew, the 9/11 attacks and the Los Angeles earthquake of 1994. After Hurricane Andrew, many
insurers pulled out of providing hurricane cover to the affected areas and various government funds
stepped in.
Hurricane Charley ruined 12,000 homes and caused billions of pounds worth of damage across much of
west and central Florida. It was the worst hurricane to hit Florida for twelve years. Two million Floridians
were advised to flee, in the largest peacetime evacuation. At least 27 lives were lost overall, including
one person in Jamaica and several in Cuba. People died by being hit by falling trees, being flipped over
in their trucks as they fled or electrocuted by fallen power cables. Up to 80 per cent of buildings in
Charlotte County were damaged or destroyed. Over one million people in the state were left without
power, and three Florida cities – Arcadia, Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda – were left entirely without
water. Closed airports disrupted holiday travel at the peak of the season, which resulted in heavy losses
for tourist businesses – even Disney World in Orlando was forced to close for a day.
Figure 2.
The Caribbean was severely affected by hurricanes in 2004.
In addition, there were changes to the physical landscape. Charley breached a spit, isolating North
Captiva Island (the hooked end of the landform) from the mainland. The hurricane passed directly over
North Captiva Island, resulting in a breach 450 metres wide. In southeast USA, most of the inlets cut
through the barrier islands have been formed in a similar way, during previous hurricanes.
However, the hazard management was only partially successful. Charley landed much further south on
Florida's Gulf Coast than predicted, affecting the many residents that had not been evacuated. Punta
Gorda in Florida was officially declared a disaster zone, with estimates suggesting that the damage
already runs into billions of dollars. Computer predictions were that the hurricane would strike land 1,190
miles to the north in Tampa.
The overall impact of Hurricane Charley was far greater than originally expected due to a range of
factors, both physical and human:
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Magnitude – the hurricane was the strongest to hit Florida in twelve years.
Prediction – half of the deaths were in Punta Gorda, a settlement of 15,000 people, where
there was talk of lack of preparedness due to inaccurate predictions.
Hurricanes are still not fully understood and they behave erratically, especially when the winds
that drive them weaken.
Charley was the most devastating storm to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 but it was
immediately followed by an even larger storm system, Hurricane Frances.
Frances
When Hurricane Frances struck in mid-August it was two to three times larger than Charley, and was
predicted to be the worst hurricane to hit Florida for 50 years. It was the first time in more than a century
that such high-intensity hurricanes have struck so close together.
As Hurricane Frances – 1,000 miles wide with winds of more than 120 mph – moved in on Florida’s east
coast, forecasters warned that up to fifteen million people could be in its path. The storm swept through
the Bahamas, ripping off roofs and uprooting trees. At least two people were killed. A school was
destroyed by winds on Long Island and severe flooding was reported on Eleuthera, as up to 50
centimetres of rain fell.
After the inaccurate predictions of Charley’s course, emergency planners decided to take no chances.
More than 2.5 million people left their homes for safe refuge along the 300-mile coast north from Miami
as forecasters were unable to predict accurately where Frances would strike. It was the biggest
evacuation in Florida's history. Even the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral was evacuated for
the first time in its history, with all 14,000 workers sent home. By widening the evacuation area,
forecasters could be more confident this time that there would not be a repeat of the loss of life caused
by Charley.
The management of Frances had therefore been a greater success than Charley. Despite its size, only
four deaths were reported in the USA. However, where the eye passed directly over the town of Stuart,
it destroyed many buildings. Four neighbouring counties were declared a disaster zone, and four million
people were left without power. Although Frances was a larger system than Charley, the wind speeds
were actually lower. The storm’s intensity weakened from a category four hurricane to a category three.
Much of the damage was caused by wide-scale flooding, rather than wind damage, as over 30
centimetres of rain fell across much of the state.
Some people did, however, benefit from the hurricanes coming together. As well as the $1 billion (£550
million) windfall from Hurricane Charley that DIY chains were predicting, they were reporting further
strong sales as nervous Floridians snapped up materials to protect their homes. But there was still more
to cope with, as right after Hurricane Frances came Hurricane Ivan.
Figure 3. The causes of hurricanes.
Ivan
In early September, Hurricane Ivan ripped through a number of Caribbean islands before hitting the
USA. The pressure at Ivan’s eye was the sixth lowest ever measured in the Atlantic Basin. Dozens more
lost their lives as Ivan struck Barbados, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands and the US states of Florida and Alabama. The final death toll was estimated to be
around 122.
Hurricane Ivan gusted with 155 mph winds and produced seven-metre waves when it struck the
Cayman Islands, threatening the 45,000 inhabitants. Many islanders on Little Cayman were evacuated
to the main island of Grand Cayman. On a third island, Cayman Brac, locals fled to caves that have
traditionally been used as a haven against hurricanes.
Between 25 per cent and 50 per cent of the 15,000 homes on Grand Cayman suffered some damage.
As it moved northwest across the Caribbean, Ivan sometimes reached category five, the top of the
scale. There were unconfirmed reports of two deaths on the low-lying Grand Cayman, the largest of the
group. Residents said parts of the island were under 2.5 metres of water. Many, if not all, buildings in
the capital, George Town, suffered damage. Houses and businesses were flooded, an airport runway
was submerged and roofs were torn off. All three islands were without electricity. A minor controversy
later developed over whether reports of damages were under-played by the British government, fearful
of disrupting tourism and flows of investment.
In Cuba, 1.3 million people were evacuated, 200,000 in Pinar del Rio province. The province, which
grows the tobacco for Cuban cigars, was hit by hurricanes Isidore and Lili in 2002, which caused $40
million (£22.27 million) of damage to the industry. Cuba is a Communist state with an authoritarian
government. The police have the power to arrest people who fail to obey an evacuation order. Hence,
the evacuation was successful. Cuba experienced no loss of life but saw serious damage to its tobacco
crops.
In Jamaica, despite hurricane warnings, half a million stayed in their homes for fear of looting and
burglary. As the clean-up operation got under way in Jamaica, almost the entire island lost its electricity
and gangs of looters were reported to be roaming the streets of Kingston and Montego Bay. This
example illustrates how important social and political differences between neighbouring countries can be
in determining the impact of a natural hazard. And yet, Jamaica was lucky. On 12 September, Ivan was
expected to make a direct hit on Jamaica. At the last minute, Ivan veered towards the south of Jamaica,
rather than passing across the middle of the island. This reduced the final death toll to between twenty
and 56, as the hurricane missed some of the most densely populated areas.
In its journey from the mid-Atlantic fringes of the Caribbean, Ivan devastated Grenada, killing 34 and
damaging more than 90 per cent of the houses on the island, leaving 60,000 people homeless. Five
people were reported dead in Venezuela and four in the Dominican Republic. In the Caribbean,
Hurricane Ivan caused at least 70 deaths. The Red Cross said about £2.6 million was urgently required
for basic needs.
Figure 4. Season of the storm.
Mexico began evacuating 12,000 residents and tourists from the eastern seaboard of the Yucatan
peninsula in low-lying tourist areas around Cancun. World oil prices rose as companies operating in the
Gulf of Mexico prepared for disruptions to gas and oil operations. Even Shell shut down productions in
the gulf as a precaution and oil prices rose on fears that damage could lead to sustained reduced
production.
When Ivan slammed into the USA on 16 September, it killed at least eighteen people and battered a
broad swath of coastline from Louisiana to Florida with severe winds, torrential rain and waves as high
as 8 metres. There were stories about the sewers backing up, and snakes and alligators emerging from
them. Officials said that at least 1.7 million people living in mobile homes or in low-lying areas on the
gulf coast of Florida were at risk. The worst of the storm hit the Alabama seaside resort of Gulf Shores.
In Gulf Shores, flooding of up to 3 metres reached nearly a kilometre inland.
But the greatest number of casualties occurred in the Florida Panhandle, where tornadoes spawned by
the hurricane killed at least thirteen people and washed away part of a road bridge. Thousands of
tourists and conference-goers, including many from Britain, remained stranded in New Orleans.
Figure 5.
A house in Florida before hurricane damage.
The impact of Ivan was ultimately far more deadly than either Frances or Charley on account of :
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Its greater wind speed, generating 10-metre waves in the Gulf of Mexico.
The course that it took through densely populated urban areas in a number of Caribbean
LEDCs with weaker building controls and regulations than the USA and fewer resources for
emergency planning and relief.
Nevertheless, the next hurricane to arrive, Hurricane Jeanne, although much weaker, was responsible
for more than ten times as many deaths as Hurricane Ivan.
Jeanne
Around the same time as Ivan was battering Florida, the wider region experienced a new tropical storm,
Jeanne. It hit the Dominican Republic with winds close to hurricane strength and brought mudslides and
flooding to Haiti, killing nearly 2,000 people. Jeanne showed that the strongest natural hazard events do
not necessarily cause the greatest damage. Population density, building construction and hazard
planning measures also determine the outcome of a hazard. Haiti has very poor levels of preparedness
for natural hazards, which is unsurprising given that it is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.
Eighty per cent of the population live below the poverty line.
Two days of rain sent torrents down mountains in the country’s Artibonite and northwest provinces,
causing rivers to burst their banks. Heavy rainfall and rising sea levels submerged poorly defended
urban areas, causing massive loss of life through drowning. The floods tore through the coastal town of
Gonaives and outlying districts, covering crops and roads. Much of Gonaives was under waist-deep
water and aid workers were finding it difficult to evacuate all those in need. At least 550 people died
when a 3-metre wall of water and mud destroyed large areas of the town. More than 100 other people
died in the region. Gonaives, a city of 250,000 people, was declared a disaster area with an appeal for
international aid. The US government pledged an immediate $60,000 (£33,500) in aid. More than
100,000 people in Gonaives needed shelter, food or medical aid.
The storm, which hit Haiti just four months after floods, killing more than 3,000 people on the HaitianDominican border, was blamed for at least ten deaths in other countries. Seven died in the Dominican
Republic – which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti – and three in Puerto Rico. Unlike the
Dominican Republic, much of Haiti has been deforested, leaving it more vulnerable to flood damage.
The scale of the disaster was blamed on deforestation, which has left communities vulnerable to flash
floods. The mountainous country that was once heavily forested now has less than two per cent tree
cover. This has led to severe soil erosion, which allows water to rush off the steep slopes. Most trees
have been cut down to make charcoal for cooking. A recent UN environmental report described Haiti as
‘one of the most degraded countries in the world'.
With soil in some areas eroded beyond repair, the government has been looking into relocating
communities, particularly from flood-prone zones. After the floods in May, reforesting the country was
declared a priority. The USA promised aid to help build water-catchment areas and to plant more trees,
but restoring Haiti's ecology is a massive task. In the past twenty years, more than 60 million trees have
been planted to try to avoid soil erosion and desertification, but an estimated 10 to 20 million are cut
down each year for firewood and charcoal.
As the hurricane left Haiti, rioting broke out and UN peacekeepers were called in to help distribute food
aid in an increasingly lawless environment. After strengthening to a hurricane, Jeanne came ashore
along the coast of Florida, a coast still recovering from the effects of the previous three hurricanes. This
time, up to three million people in Florida had been told to evacuate the area, breaking evacuation
records for the third time in a month. However, the regularity of hurricane warnings now meant that
‘hurricane fatigue’ was beginning to set in. As a result, many people decided to stay put. Consequently,
several lives were needlessly lost to this, the weakest of the four hurricanes to hit Florida.
Figure 6.
A house in Florida showing the damage from a hurricane.
Figure 7.
In Florida, the increased frequency of hurricanes has proved costly for insurers.
In summary:
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The unpredictability of hurricane paths makes the effective management of hurricanes difficult.
It was fortunate for Jamaica that Ivan suddenly changed course away from the most densely
populated parts of the island where it had been expected to hit. In contrast, it was unfortunate
for Florida’s Punta Gorda when Charley moved away from its predicted path.
The strongest storms do not always cause the greatest damage. Only six lives were lost to
Hurricane Frances, but Jeanne claimed 2,000 lives when it was categorised as just a ‘tropical
storm’ and had not yet reached full hurricane strength.
The distribution of the population throughout the Caribbean islands increases the risk
associated with hurricanes. Much of the population lives in coastal settlements and is exposed
to increased sea levels and the risk of flooding.
Hazard mitigation depends upon the effectiveness of the human response to natural events.
This includes urban-planning laws, emergency planning, evacuation measures and relief
operations such as re-housing schemes and the distribution of food aid and clean water. The
highly authoritarian government of Cuba suffered no deaths from Hurricane Ivan, whereas in
Haiti and Jamaica there were a number of deaths.
LEDCs continue to lose more lives to natural hazards, due to inadequate planning and
preparation. By way of contrast, insurance costs continue to be greatest in American states
such as Florida, where multi-million-pound waterfront homes proliferate.
Conclusion
The increase in hurricane activity in 2004 may be part of a longer-term trend. Research at Colorado
State University suggests increased activity could last another ten or twenty years. The Atlantic warmed
up between 1926 and 1960 when there was increased activity, but hurricanes reduced between 1960
and 1995, when the water was cooler. The 2004 hurricane season has proved costly for insurers, with
early estimates of $8 billion (£4.5 billion) of losses from just one of the storms that have hit the USA
alone.