Official Farmers Hurmanac 2006-2007 Winter Forecast
Note: Winter storms are storms that occur during the winter that may feature any precipitation type (rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow) or a combination of precipitation types
which is referred to as a “changeover” storm. Snowstorms are primary snow events with little or no ice and/or rain.
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
Cooler half of the
month will be from
December 1st
through 15th.
This January will be nothing
like January of 2006 which
was extremely warm relative
to normal.
Starts off the way the
end of January ended,
favoring warmer and
less snowy weather.
Coldest and snowiest
time frame is from
about mid month
forward.
Potential for
historic winter
storm in March. If
this does come to
fruition, I expect
this to be a
changeover event
for the immediate
Philadelphia region
but a huge
snowmaker to our
SW, W, NW.
Our first
accumulation of
snow for the winter
will come during
the 1st to 15th time
frame.
Weather pattern is
less favorable for
cold and snow
during the 2nd half
of the month
compared to the 1st
half of the month.
Dec Temp: + 0.3
degrees
Expect a cold month to ring in
the New Year with multiple
threats of winter storms.
Our best chance for an ice
storm this winter is during the
month of January.
Feb Snow: 5.8 in
Projected Winter Storm
Dates (HM):
Jan Temp: -1.3 degrees
2-17: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
Projected Winter
Storm Dates (HM):
Mar Temp: + 2.3
degrees
2-23: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
3-3: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
2-28: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
3-8: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
Mar Snow: 2.2 in
Jan Snow: 10.3 in
Projected Winter Storm Dates
(HM):
Projected Winter
Storm Dates (HM):
1-7: Potential Significant
“Snowstorm”
12-5: Potential
“Winter Storm”
1-15: Potential Significant
“Snowstorm”
12-8: Potential
“Winter Storm”
1-23: Potential “Winter
Storm.” Could be a HUGE
event that impacts many along
the Eastern seaboard. Most
likely a “changeover” storm
for Philadelphia.
Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz
(NBC 10):
Normal to Warm Dec; Cold Jan;
Even Colder Feb; Warm Mar;
Overall Winter Colder Than Normal;
Much Above Normal Snowfall (30 to
40 inches); 1 or more storms of 10
inches or more; 16 days in which it
snows.
Rob Guarino (FOX 29):
Weather pattern favors
warmer and less snowy
weather at the end of the
month.
Dec Snow: 2.7 in
12-23: Potential
“Winter Storm”
Feb Temp: -0.8
degrees
Winter Forecasts of Notable
Meteorologists
Warm Dec; Normal Jan; Cold Feb;
Warm Mar; Overall Winter Warmer
Than Normal; Near Normal Snowfall
(17-23 inches). 80% of the Winter
Snowfall Will Occur in Jan and Feb.
Kathy Orr (CBS 3):
3-18: Potential
Significant
“Snowstorm”
Warm Dec; Normal Jan; Cold Feb;
Overall Winter Near Normal;
Above Normal Snowfall (20 – 26
inches).
Impact for ASD
Winter
Snowfall
(in)
0–7
7 – 12
12 – 19 *
19 – 26
26 – 35 *
35 – 50 *
50 +
Probability
(%)
5
5
20
25
20
15
10
Snow Days
in ASD
0
1-2
3-4
5-6
6+
Probability
(%)
10
50
25
10
5
Late
Arrivals
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Probability
(%)
5
10
30
25
15
10
5
Early
Dismissals
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Probability
(%)
25
30
20
10
5
5
5
Action News (Accu-Weather):
Normal Dec; Cold Jan; Cold Feb;
Overall Winter Colder Than Normal;
Above Normal Snowfall (About 25
inches).
Official Farmers Hurmanac 2006-2007 Winter Forecast
Note: Winter storms are storms that occur during the winter that may feature any precipitation type (rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow) or a combination of precipitation types
which is referred to as a “changeover” storm. Snowstorms are primary snow events with little or no ice and/or rain.
Overall Winter Comments
-2006-2007 climate pattern is one of a normal October, warm November and a “moderate” El Nino winter:
Past Winter Patterns Similar to 2006-2007:
1902-03…..snow - 16.8”
1930-31…..snow - 4.1”
1963-64…..snow - 30.9”
1982-83…..snow - 35.9”
1994-95…..snow - 9.8”
2004-05…..snow - 30.4”
Average
= 21.3” (more than normal)
-Many winter storm threats resulting in “media frenzy.” Lots of hype for good reason but many will think the hype is out of control and annoying after a while.
-When the winter is all said and done, there will be drastic differences in total winter snowfall within the Delaware Valley. Some areas within the Delaware Valley will receive
below normal winter snowfall, whereas others will receive above normal snowfall. Additionally, there will be extreme variation in total snow accumulation for a singular storm(s).
For example, two places, perhaps as little as 25 miles apart, may have final storm totals of 3 inches and 12 inches respectively.
-For us in and around Philadelphia, the majority (> 50%) of winter storms will be “changeover” storms or just pure rainstorms. All of the above points will make forecasting very
difficult during the winter. After the winter season, Congress will introduce a bill titled. “No Meteorologist Left Behind.” Hey Hartman, is it Congress that introduces bills?
-I am really torn on whether to predict a winter with below normal snowfall or a winter with snowfall that is much above normal. “Hurricane” Schwartz went with a blockbuster
cold and snowy winter with a total snowfall of 30 to 40 inches. He is one of the top snow forecasters in the country. He tends to be a conservative forecaster so he is rather
confident of a blockbuster winter. He also went on to say that there will be 1 or more 10 inch storms this winter. Those happen about once every 3 to 4 years on average. So he is
rather confident about this as well. Rob Guarino of our FOX affiliate is also a notable and respected snow forecaster. He has a very respectable accuracy rate similar to that of
“Hurricane” Schwartz. He is predicting a warmer than normal winter with near normal snowfall around 20 inches.
-This could be a winter in which we receive 40 or more inches of snow resulting from 1 or more really big storms. El Nino winters which are rare to begin with have produced
24% of our all of our 6 inch or more storms. The strength of this winters’ El Nino is the key factor. Weak and/or moderate El Nino’s favors cold and snow. Strong El Nino’s
strongly favor warm winters with little snow. But as seen in the table above, even weak and/or moderate El Nino winters can have little snowfall.
-I think “all snow” events will be very hard to come by keeping the accumulations lower to our south and east. However, further north and west where it remains colder
accumulations could really pile up. Therefore I think the airport will receive 21.0 inches but Willow Grove Naval Base will receive upwards of 29.1 inches. Thus I am banking on
changeovers to ice and/or rain being the reason why we aren’t the ones with a blockbuster winter snowfall. The Achilles of my forecast is my snowfall prediction for February.
If this 5.8 inch total falls flat on its face and instead we get 1 or 2 significant snowstorms with little or no changeover then our winter could easily end up over 40 inches.
This is the winter where it all depends on where you live.
Overall Winter Temperatures:
Overall Winter Snowfall:
Overall Winter Snowfall:
+0.5 degrees (above normal)
21.0 inches (Philadelphia International Airport)
29.1 inches (Willow Grove Naval Base)
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE