2003-2004 Virginia Deer Season Forecast
W. Matt Knox
Deer Program Supervisor
Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries
1132 Thomas Jefferson Road
Forest, VA 24551
(434) 525-7522
mknox@dgif.state.va.us
2001 Season Review
Last deer season was very good for Virginia deer hunters, but it will probably ultimately be
remembered as the year that most Virginia deer hunters first heard of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) and
the worst Hemorrhagic Disease (HD) year in a decade. During the 2002 deer season 213,918 deer were
reported killed by deer hunters in Virginia. This total included 102,761 antlered males, 22,171 male
fawns, 86,133 females (40.8%) and 2,853 deer of undocumented sex. The 2002 kill represents a 1%
decrease from the 215,872 deer killed in 2001.
Archers, including crossbow hunters, killed 18,593 deer. The 2002 archery kill was up almost 2%
from the 18,254 deer taken by archers in 2001. Archery constituted almost 9% of the total deer kill.
Muzzleloader deer hunters killed 48,648 deer. The 2002 muzzleloader kill was down about 10%
from the 53,798 deer taken by muzzleloaders in 2001. Muzzleloading comprised 23% of the total deer
kill.
Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD)
Hopefully, as most Virginia deer hunters have heard by now, there was very good news on the
CWD testing from last fall. Samples collected from 1,114 Virginia deer during 2002 all tested negative for
CWD. The cooperation and support the Department received from Virginia’s deer hunting community
was outstanding.
Starting last fall, the Department took the following management actions relative to CWD. First,
importation of live deer and elk into Virginia was prohibited, and all captive deer and elk in Virginia are
currently being monitored for CWD.
Second, three types of CWD surveillance were initiated. The first was random active testing of
1,017 road-killed and/or hunter-killed deer statewide. Every county in the Commonwealth was tested, and
all hunters who had heads tested should have been notified of the results. The second was testing of
approximately 93 suspect CWD “target” animals identified by the public and deer hunters. Elk taken by
deer hunters in southwest Virginia also were considered “target” animals, and CWD samples were
collected from 9 of 10 elk killed in 2002. Lastly, mortalities of four captive cervids were tested. CWD
was not detected in any of the 1,114 samples tested.
For fall 2003 the Department will only be conducting target surveillance, and the Department
would like to request that all hunters and the general public continue to help in the identification of and
testing of “target” animals. CWD “target” or suspect animals are defined as deer or elk 18 months of age
or older that are emaciated and show some combination of signs, including abnormal behavior, increased
salivation, tremors, stumbling, un-coordination, difficulty swallowing, excessive thirst, and excessive
urination. A simple definition is an adult deer or elk that looks as though it is starving and appears to have
neurological disorders.
What should you do if you see a CWD target deer? First, do not attempt to contact, disturb, kill, or
remove the animal. You should accurately document the location of the animal and immediately contact
the Department at 1-804-367-1000 or the field office listed below that is nearest to you. Arrangements will
be made to investigate the report. Field offices are located at Ashland (804) 752-5502, Blacksburg (540)
2003-2004 Deer Season Forecast
951-7923, Farmville (434) 392-9645, Fredericksburg (540) 899-4169, Lynchburg (434) 525-7522, Marion
(276) 783-4860, Verona (540) 248-9360, and Williamsburg (757) 253-7072.
Although all the results are not yet in, approximately 20,000 CWD samples were collected across
the Southeast this past fall. So far all have been negative.
Hemorrhagic Disease (HD)
It is official; HD hammered eastern Virginia last fall. In a decade of having DMAP cooperators
monitoring deer for sloughing hooves, which is indicative of HD, the largest number reported ever was last
year. When the Department got the large number of reports of dead and dying deer last fall, staff was not
sure if the reports represented an increase in HD activity or just an increased awareness of “disease”
because of the CWD surveillance that was being conducted. Last fall, there was unexplained deer
mortality reported in 60 counties, and isolated EHD or BT virus was isolated from 17 of these. It turned
out to be increased HD.
In 2002 approximately 21,000 deer (or 9.8% of the reported deer kill) were checked by staff and/or
DMAP cooperators for signs of HD. Seven hundred and sixty two (762) deer from 54 counties were
reported to have sloughing hooves on two or more feet. This is by far the highest number we have ever
had reported. Up until last fall, we had experienced two quiet HD years in a row. HD hoof data numbers
for the past eleven years have been 92, 121, 259, 113, 169, 183, 243, 452, 211, 113, and 762 this year. It
would be safe to say that 2002 was the worst HD year for Virginia in the past decade. This HD hoof data
is probably a pretty good overall index of HD activity in Virginia. For the past several years, the number
of deer we have “checked” has been fairly stable at about 20,000 or 10% of the reported deer kill. This
overall distribution pattern is almost exactly what we have seen year to year for the past decade. Simply
put, HD is endemic in eastern Virginia and rare west of the Blue Ridge. In eastern Virginia, the area along
and east of I-95, southside, and the central Piedmont area seem to have the most HD activity on a regular
basis and the largest reported die-offs.
If you have observed sick or dead deer in your area and suspect that HD may be the cause, please
report it to a wildlife biologist at one of the following DGIF offices: Ashland (804) 752-5502, Blacksburg
(540) 951-7923, Farmville (434) 392-9645, Fredericksburg (540) 899-4169, Lynchburg (434) 525-7522,
Marion (276) 783-4860, Verona (540) 248-9360, and Williamsburg (757) 253-7072.
New Deer Regulation Changes
As most deer hunters are aware, the Board of Directors of the Virginia Department of Game and
Inland Fisheries makes changes to deer regulations every other year on odd numbered years. Regulations
were reviewed and amended this spring, and there are several changes in deer hunting regulations that will
become effective this season that deserve noting.
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The general firearms and muzzleloading gun seasons will open on Saturday instead of the
traditional Monday openings.
The counties of Floyd, Franklin, Henry and Pittsylvania (west of the dog line) will have a 4-week
general firearms deer season.
Virginia Beach will have a late muzzleloader gun season.
General firearms either-sex deer hunting days were increased in Albemarle, Alleghany, Augusta,
Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Chesterfield, Clarke, Craig, Fauquier, Frederick, Giles, Grayson,
Highland, Lee, Mathews, Middlesex, Montgomery, Northampton, Pulaski, Richmond,
Rockbridge, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Suffolk (east of the Dismal Swamp line), Tazewell,
Washington, Wythe counties.
2003-2004 Deer Season Forecast
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General firearms either-sex deer hunting days were reduced in Greensville and Southampton
counties.
Check the new hunting digest for more details. Two of the biggest changes to deer regulations, an
increase in the antlerless deer bag limit and changes in the Department’s tagging and checking system, will
not take effect until next fall.
First, effective fall 2004 the antlerless only bag limit for deer will increase from 1 to 3 deer
statewide (i.e., there will be 3 antlerless on deer tags on the bear, deer, turkey license). This change was
appropriately summed up by a Prince George County DMAP cooperator I heard at the Board meeting who
told the hunter next to him, “they are giving us a free set of bonus deer permits.” Although this change
will not have a significant effect on DMAP cooperators, it is our hope that it will significantly increase
antlerless kill levels over much of the state.
Also, as you have probably heard by now, the Department will be making several major changes to
our tagging and checking regulations for bear, deer, and turkey beginning fall 2004. The first change
would eliminate detachable tags from the hunting licenses and special permits. The second change is
Telecheck, a telephone-based kill reporting system for deer and spring turkey. Telecheck is meant to
enhance, not do away with, the big game check station system. There will still be a need for check stations
in each county of the state. Stay tuned for more Telecheck information in the near future.
Tidewater Region Forecast
Tidewater deer kill levels have been stable between 40-52,000 for the past decade. Last year, the
Tidewater deer kill was 43,323 and was down 13% from 48,740 in 2001. Surely some of this decline was
attributable to widespread HD. Female kill levels across this region have been and continue to be the
highest in the state averaging just under 45% females in the total kill for the past ten seasons. Overall, deer
kill data indicates that the goal to stabilize deer populations in this region has been successful, and stable
deer populations are predicted for the upcoming fall.
Recruitment into the population in Tidewater last year was apparently good, and biological data
indicate that the deer herd condition is also fair to good. As has been the case for over a decade, crop
damage and deer vehicle collisions remain a major management concern over much of the region. A quiet
HD year is expected for fall 2003. Deer kill levels in the Tidewater are expected to be stable this year. A
slight increase or decrease in deer kill would not be unexpected. A fall below 40,000 would be
unexpected, and an increase above 48,000 would not be welcomed.
Piedmont Region Forecast
Regrettably, Northern Piedmont deer kill levels have not been stable of recent. They have been up
the past two years, and female kill levels have probably not been high enough to stabilize much less reduce
the deer herd. These record deer kills of the past two years in this area are not good. It appears clear that
the majority of citizens in northern Virginia would like to see the deer population reduced. If the
Department is not able to meet the expectations of the general public as it relates to deer management with
our traditional deer-hunting constituency, then other deer management methods such as out of season kill
permits and sharpshooting can be expected to increase. If you are a deer hunter that hunts in a Northern
Piedmont county, instead of shooting a young small antlered buck this season, Department staff
recommends that you kill an adult female and, if you are inclined, kill an extra adult doe this season to
donate to Virginia’s Hunters For The Hungry Program. If female kill levels in this area cannot be
increased to a level to accomplish herd reduction, especially in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William
counties, then “earn a buck” type regulations that require deer hunters to kill antlerless deer will have to be
2003-2004 Deer Season Forecast
considered.
Herd recruitment was average last season, and biological condition data indicates that overall deer
herd quality in the Northern Piedmont is good. Hopefully, the deer kill in the Northern Piedmont counties
will be stable this fall. Regrettably, another increase in deer kill levels would not be unexpected. Further
increases in deer kill levels in this area will not be welcomed. Urban deer issues and deer population
reduction in far northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties) remain a very high deer
management priority.
The Southern Piedmont remains two fairly distinct deer management areas. In the Southwestern
Piedmont (i.e., those counties that lie west of the dog line and east of the Blue Ridge) extremely liberal
regulations over the past decade have failed to control deer herds, much like the Northern Piedmont.
Conversely, in the south-central Piedmont counties, liberal either-sex deer hunting day regulations of the
late 1980’s and early 1990’s resulted in reduced deer herds that are now recovering.
Southwestern Piedmont counties had been stable for nearly a decade but have increased the past
two falls. Like the deer kill increase in the Northern Piedmont, this increase was not welcomed, but not
totally unexpected. The majority of Southwestern Piedmont counties have the most liberal “western” deer
seasons offered (i.e., full season either-sex for all deer seasons with unlimited antlerless only bonus deer
permits); and, in spite of these liberal seasons and bag limits, female kill levels are moderate at best. These
female kill levels are not expected to be adequate to control herd levels in this area in the future.
Just as was noted above, if you hunt in a Southwestern Piedmont county, instead of shooting a
young small antlered buck, Department staff recommends that you kill an adult female; and, if you are
inclined, kill an extra adult doe this season to donate to Virginia’s Hunters For The Hungry Program.
Significant declines in deer kill levels in 11 south-central counties including Amelia, Brunswick,
Buckingham, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Powhatan, and
Prince Edward occurred during the mid to late 1990’s. In response to reduced either-sex day regulations
during the late 1990’s, deer herds in nearly every one of these counties are recovering.
Herd recruitment was average to good last year, and herd condition indicates that the deer herd
quality in the Southern Piedmont is good. Like last year, deer kill levels in Southwestern Piedmont
counties will hopefully be stable for the upcoming season. A decline in deer kill levels would be
welcomed but, regrettably, a slight deer kill increase would not be totally unexpected. Over the rest of the
Southern Piedmont, including most of the recently declining south-central counties mentioned above,
stable to increasing deer kill levels are expected.
Mountain Region
West of the Blue Ridge deer kill levels have been up significantly the past two years, increasing
from a stable level of approximately 70,000 for over a decade up to nearly 85,000 last season. Over the
past two regulation cycles, the Department has liberalized either-sex deer hunting day regulations in nearly
every county west of the Blue Ridge. Many of these changes have more than doubled the number of doe
days. As a result of these changes, it is hoped that private land deer kill levels will stabilize and then
decline back to the 70,000 range or lower in the coming years.
In the Northern Mountain counties, deer herds on private lands are generally in fair to good
condition. Deer kill trends had been stable for over a decade, but have increased slightly over the past two
years. Three counties in the Northern Mountains, Alleghany, Bath, and Highland, again deserve special
note. Deer herds in the Alleghany Highland counties have increased to high levels relative to the habitat’s
biological carrying capacity. Deer herd condition in this area is arguably the worst in the state. Weights
and antler development are poor, and a distinct browse line can be seen over much of this area.
2003-2004 Deer Season Forecast
Southern Mountain private land deer herds also exhibit good condition. Deer kill levels on private
lands in this region have been increasing for a decade, and stable to slightly increasing deer kill levels are
expected on private lands in the Southern Mountains this year.
One unique deer management issue in the Southern Mountains that deserves special comment is
the elk season. Elk kill figures for the past three years are one in 2000, four in 2001, and ten last season in
2002. Elk kill levels are expected on increase in the future.
Public land deer herds on National Forest and Department-owned lands west of the Blue Ridge
generally exhibit fair to poor condition, and public land deer kill trends have been stable to slightly
increasing over the past five years. These increased deer kill levels are the result of regulation changes that
have been enacted in the past to reduce the general firearms either-sex deer hunting days on National
Forest and Department-owned land in all western counties. These regulation changes have generally been
successful in lowering female kill levels. As a result of the restrictions on antlerless kill levels on western
public lands, deer populations on these public lands should be stable to increasing. The fact that western
public land deer kill levels have been stable or increasing over the last several years is surprising given the
fact that national forest hunting permit sales have declined over 40,000 permits or approximately 30% over
the past decade. Increased either-sex days on these public lands will be monitored very closely in the
future.
Summary
In general, deer regulations have tended to run in cycles over the past decade. Liberal either-sex
deer hunting regulations of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s were followed by reduced herds in some areas,
which resulted in reduction in either-sex hunting opportunities over much of eastern Virginia during the
mid to late 1990’s. These corrections have allowed deer populations to recover, and the cycle has already
turned to more liberal regulations again on a much larger scale, including west of the Blue Ridge. For
example, during the past two regulations cycles nearly all either-sex day changes have been increases.
Over the vast majority of the Commonwealth of Virginia, current deer management objectives call
for the deer herd(s) to be stabilized at their current level. Luckily, in most areas this management objective
is being attained. Population goals are not being met in the Northern Piedmont and the Southwest
Piedmont. Failure to meet this stable population goal must result in either an under harvest or over
harvest. Without question, the Department is at the point that, if a management mistake must be made, it
must be over harvest.
The 2003-04 deer season should be a very good deer season over most of Virginia. The drought is
over, and habitat conditions over the spring and summer have been excellent. In eastern Virginia last year
there was an outstanding mast crop, so weights and antler development should be very good. A slight deer
kill decline from last year would be welcomed. However, as a result of liberal either-sex regulations that
have been adopted during the last two regulation cycles, a record female kill of between 90-100,000
females is likely for 2003.
Because of the predicted increased female kill levels, total deer kill levels over much of Virginia
can be expected to stabilize or decline over the next two to five years. Hopefully, as a result of reduced
deer populations, total deer kill levels will once again fall to between 175,000 and 200,000.