WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
THORPEX ICSC
DAOS Working Group
Third Meeting
CAS/THORPEX ICSC/
DAOS-3/Doc.6.4
(08.VI.2010)
Item: 6.4
Original: ENGLISH
University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM)
Montréal, 8-9 July 2010
THORPEX POLAR PROJECT
1.
Background
At the eighth session of the ICSC (ICSC 8), amongst other things, the ICSC decided that a workshop
should be convened to develop proposals for an IPY follow on THORPEX polar project. This decision
was strengthened further at the fifteenth session of the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CASXV)
when “The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations,
Research and Services on the requirement for effective collaboration and therefore recommended that
any efforts to develop a future prediction system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX cluster of
projects and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project”
An announcement for this Workshop and a Provisional Agenda are appended below in Annexes 1 and
2. The Announcement was put together with input from the joint Working Group Chairs (Thor Erik
Nordeng and Gilbert Brunet) and the WMO secretariat with additional input from other scientists.
Requests for comments and input were also sent to THORPEX Working Group Chairs.
The main outcome of the workshop is the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research
Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development
efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions
and facilitate climate predictions up to a season.
As you will see from the Announcement, this workshop is one in a series of WMO meetings in 2010
that, amongst other things, address various aspects of polar research and prediction. The other two
meetings are the WCRP Polar Workshop planned for Bergen (25 to 29 October 2010) and the joint
WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Workshop that will be hosted in
Exeter (1 to 3 December 2010).
2.
Actions for the DAOS Working Group
The DAOS Working Group is invited to discuss and comment on the announcement and the agenda
and in particular to suggest potential topics and speakers.
Annex 1 Announcement
A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP POLAR PREDICTION WORKSHOP
“A THORPEX CONTRIBUTION TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF POLAR PREDICTIONS
ON WEATHER-TO-SEASONAL TIMESCALES
(6 TO 8 OCTOBER 2010, OSLO, NORWAY)
ANNOUNCEMENT
The main outcome of the workshop is the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that
provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve
operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions and facilitate climate
predictions up to a season.
The significant contribution of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to the protection of health, safety and
economic competitiveness is recognized worldwide. The benefit of NWP applications for Polar Regions has
been somewhat delayed due the higher priority of forecasting in the more densely populated mid-latitude and
tropical regions and because of insufficient understanding of polar processes. Concerns about amplification of
anthropogenic climate change at higher latitudes combined with an increasing interest of many governments in
Polar Regions calls for a better understanding of weather, earth-system and environmental processes in order to
improve our ability to make reliable, quantitative predictions out to a season ahead. The International Polar Year
2007/2008 (IPY) provided an opportunity to address this requirement. It was designed to be and indeed has
become a leap forward in enhancement of the observational networks and use of their observations,
understanding of physical processes, modelling and prediction in Polar Regions.
At its 15th session (Seoul, Republic of Korea, 2009), the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
recommended, as a legacy of IPY, the establishment of a THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project to
improve the understanding of polar processes affecting polar weather, the assimilation of data in polar regions
and the prediction of high impact weather over polar regions. Inter alia, the CAS acknowledged important steps
forward in the polar analysis and prediction had resulted from
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The success of the THORPEX IPY Cluster Project
The success of the IPY Ice Logistics Portal
The GMES Marine Core service and its polar prediction and sea ice information provision services
The scientific and operational advances in satellite data assimilation
The CAS recognised that the research outcomes of these efforts would provide valuable input to the WMO
activities in the Polar Regions and constitute an important IPY legacy. It noted that the WMO Executive Council
Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services (EC-PORS) decided that the design and
development of polar prediction systems is an essential task that will require effective collaboration across the
relevant WMO Technical Commissions along with other partners. The Commission recommended that efforts be
made to further polar prediction for weather and climate and to extend efforts to snow, ice, carbon and
ecosystem modelling and analysis. This would also require the involvement of the World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP), including THORPEX, the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) and the World Climate
Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and support from WMO
Members. Finally, the CAS concurred with EC-PORS on the requirement for effective collaboration and therefore
recommended that any efforts to develop a future prediction system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX
cluster of projects and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project.
This workshop is one in a series of WMO meetings in 2010 that, amongst other things, address various aspects
of polar research and prediction. The other two meetings are the WCRP Polar Workshop planned for Bergen
(25 to 29 October 2010) and the joint WWRP/THORPEXWCRP Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Workshop
planned for Exeter (1 to 3 December 2010).
These meetings are intended to generate an input into a coherent programme of WMO polar activities that can
be presented to the EC-PORS and WMO Congress-16 in 2011 and constitute core elements of a scientific
approach to an International Polar Decade and the Polar component of the Global Framework for Climate
Services.
Annex 2 Draft Agenda
A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP POLAR PREDICTION WORKSHOP
“A THORPEX CONTRIBUTION TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF POLAR PREDICTIONS
ON WEATHER-TO-SEASONAL TIMESCALES
(6 TO 8 OCTOBER 2010, OSLO, NORWAY)
PROVISIONAL AGENDA
The main outcome of the workshop is the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that
provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve
operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions and facilitate climate
predictions up to a season.
The workshop will open with a series of presentations outlining:
 The Scientific Challenges of weather and environmental prediction in the Polar Regions
 Programmatic activities
 Scientific activities
The second half of the workshop will be given over to discussions on the requirements and framework for an
International Polar research Project to include the preparation of a “status paper”.
Wednesday 6 October
09:00-09:30
Welcome and scope of the workshop
Session 1
Scientific challenges
Thor Erik Nordeng
David Burridge
Chair TBD
09:30-10:15
Arctic
TBD
10:15-11:00
Antarctic
TBD
11:00-11:30
Coffee break
11:30-12:00
IPY outcomes
TBD
Session 2
Programmatic activities
Chair TBD
12:00-13:00
TBD
TBD
13.00-14.00
Research and operational activities
Presentation 1
Presentation 2
Lunch
Session 2
Programmatic activities continued
Chair TBD
14.00-15:00
Research and operational activities continued
Presentation 3
Presentation 4
Observations
Operational observing system
Coffee
15.00-15:30
15:30-16:00
16.00-17.30
17.30
Observations continued
Research observations
Polar research within WCRP
EC-PORS
Reception
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Thursday 7 October
Session 3
Scientific activities – weather to seasonal prediction
Chair TBD
08.30-10.00
Data assimilation 1
Data assimilation 2
Physical processes 1
Coffee break
TBD
TBD
TBD
Physical processes 2
Regional prediction systems 1
Regional prediction systems 2
Lunch break
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
15:00-15:30
Coupled modelling – atmosphere
Coupled modelling – sea-ice and ocean
Coupled modelling – water-cycle and surface processes
Coffee break
Session 4
Elements of an international research programme
Chair TBD
15.30-17.00
Discussions lead by Chair
10.00-10.30
10.30-12.30
12:30-13:30
13:30-15:00
Friday 8 October
Session 4
Research priorities
08:30-10:15
Discussions lead by Chair
10.15-10.45
Coffee break
Session 5
International cooperation/project
10:45-12:30
Discussion lead by Chair
12.30-13.30
Lunch break
Session 5
Workshop summary and final discussion
Chair TBD
13.30-15.00
Elements of an international research programme
Research priorities
International cooperation/project
Close
Thor Erik Nordeng
15.00
Chair TBD
Chair TBD