Linking Development to the Status of Benthic Communities: Challenges and Lessons from the Florida Keys Ricardo N. Calvo, and Debra C. Woithe URS Corporation, Tampa, Florida Deborah H. Peterson U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, Florida What is the connection between development and benthic communities in the Florida Keys? Can we predict the effect of further development on benthic communities? These questions are central to the establishment of management policies in the Florida Keys. As part of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study (FKCCS) we addressed these two questions based on existing data. Our efforts focused on direct human impacts (e.g., prop scars, groundings and anchoring damage, snorkeling and diving impacts), as well as indirect impacts of development (e.g., pollutant loads). Water Quality and Benthic Communities in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Based on four years of monitoring data, Boyer and Jones (2002) concluded that, at a Keys-wide scale, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) exhibited “very good” water quality. The Upper Keys generally have lower nutrient concentrations than the Middle or Lower Keys. Concentration of TN generally decreased from inshore to offshore; the same occurred for TP, with the exception of the Upper Keys, where TP increased offshore, oceanside. A median TN:TP ratio of 62.10 suggests a P-limited environment. Keller and Itkin (2002) reported statistically significant differences in TN and TP between Upper and Middle Keys in samples from canals and other nearshore locations. TN was lower in sampling stations near developed areas (41.3 μm) than in natural shorelines (52.3 μm). Annual mean was not statistically different between stations with regard to region (Upper, Middle, Lower Keys), shoreline type (developed, undeveloped), island side (bayside, oceanside), or season. A significant correlation between TP and Chl a suggested that P-limitation occurs. Kruczynski and McManus (2002) provide an extensive discussion of water quality issues in the Florida Keys. They reviewed TN and TP data for three canals, and show values between 19.8 and 40.5 μm for TN and between 0.21 and 1.04 for TP; both higher than those observed in open waters. Lapointe et al. (1994) also measured elevated TN and TP levels (>35 μm and >0.45 μm, respectively) at sampling stations that received direct nutrient inputs, including a canal in Big Pine Key. As part of the FKCCS, Fourqurean and Miller-Rutten (2002) investigated nearshore (<1 km from shore) benthic communities in the Florida Keys. They attempted to determine if temporal or spatial variation in benthic communities was associated with land use activity in the Florida Keys. Both nearshore benthic communities and their associated nutrient regimes exhibited spatial variation throughout the Florida Keys. Nearshore benthic communities exhibited very little variation over the past 40 years, even in the face of tremendous land development in the Florida Keys. The results provided little evidence to support the hypothesis that there is a significant relationship between land use and spatial or temporal variation of nearshore benthic communities and their associated nutrient regimes throughout the Florida Keys. Results indicate that substrate, not land use, is the most important factor associated with benthic community distribution and composition. Also as part of the FKCCS, URS Corporation developed stormwater and wastewater pollutant loading models for the Florida Keys. Model runs suggest that pollutant loads would be greatly reduced with the implementation of wastewater and stormwater master plans already adopted. However, the link between pollutant loads, water quality and the status of benthic communities in the FKNMS remains elusive. Direct Human Impacts. No comprehensive boat traffic study exists for the Florida Keys (Leeworthy 1998, Stolpe 1998, Matthews and Donovan 1992, FKNMS 1996; Kruer 1993). Existing studies and monitoring efforts are insufficient to establish a connection between population and the number of boats utilizing the FKNMS or to predict the effect of changing numbers of boats. The Florida Marine Research Institute (FMRI) developed a map of scarred seagrass areas (Sargent et al. 1995). We performed multiple regression analyses, which showed no significant correlation between the distribution of scarred areas and a series of development surrogates, including development status of the nearest shore, location of marinas and boat ramps, location of navigational aids, and location of channels. The distribution of scarred seagrass areas was only correlated with distance from shore (independently of shoreline type) and water depth. Similarly, an examination of the FMRI boat groundings database shows that boat groundings occur mainly near reef areas, in popular, shallow destinations. In a Florida study, Tagle (1990) showed divers touched coral heads an average of seven times during a 30-minute interval, while five percent of divers have more than 20 incidents per 30-minute dive. No other quantitative assessment of snorkeling or diving impacts was available. Rouphael and Inglis (1995) claimed that diver damage to corals is unlikely to have major consequences for local coral populations, but may be substantive enough to affect the aesthetic appeal of the sites. Conclusions and Recommendations. Development may directly and indirectly affect benthic communities, as evidenced by prop scars, coral damage, and high pollutant concentrations in canals and other confined waters in the Florida Keys. However, despite the existence of an extensive and growing body of literature on the ecological resources and water quality characteristics of the FKNMS (reviewed in Porter and Porter 2002, Sullivan et. al 1996), the available data are insufficient to establish a clear connection between development, nutrient regimes, and nutrient effects on benthic communities in the FKNMS. Available data are also insufficient to establish predictive relationships between land development activities and the impacts listed above. While the relationship between development and benthic communities is of paramount interest to scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders in the Florida Keys, existing data and research programs address the issue only from limited perspectives. If resource managers are to be able to assess the effect of future development on the benthic communities of the Florida Keys, research must focus on establishing predictive relationships between development and the ecology of benthic communities. A centralized research coordination program, which brings together and provides overall focus to disparate efforts, may be necessary to effectively tackle this important scientific and management issue. Calvo, Ricardo, URS Corporation, 7650 West Courtney Campbell Causeway, Tampa, FL, 33607, Phone: 813-636-2106, Fax: 813-636-2494, Ricardo_n_calvo@urscorp.com, Question 4