APPENDIX 4 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILE Summary The following profile provides information on population and household trends for the Inverclyde Council area and for Scotland as a whole for comparison purposes. The key evidence set out in the following sections can be summarised as follows: The population of Inverclyde has been in overall decline for quite some time and this decrease is likely to continue over the period of the LHS and beyond. General trends in the make up of the population mask significant variations in migration patterns across the LHS sub areas reflecting wide differences in social and economic circumstances. In common with Scotland as a whole Inverclyde has a growing older population however the proportion of older people will be significantly higher than the national average in future years. There are fewer children and young people in the Inverclyde population than the regional and national averages and this will have an impact in future years as there will be fewer people of working age contributing to local taxation There are also fewer numbers of economically active people in the Inverclyde population and this will also impact on the ability to pay for services in the future. A general trend of out-migration of younger, economically active, people has been noted and this trend must be reversed if services are to be maintained in line with previously noted changes in demography. Whilst the overall population of Inverclyde is declining, there are a growing number of households forming, particularly single person households made up of both older and younger people. The combined effects of a growing older population and high household formation rates have to be taken account of in future strategic planning for housing of all tenures throughout Inverclyde. Detailed information and supporting evidence is provided in sections 1.0 to 4.0 below. 1. Estimates of Population 1.1 Table 1 below provides an estimate of the Inverclyde population from the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (GCV) Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 (the HNDA). Estimates from the assessment are only available at the HNDA sub area. Table 1: Estimate of Population by HNDA Sub Area 2008 LA Sub Area Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde 2008 Estimate Inverclyde % 49,169 26,428 5,183 80,780 60.9% 32.7% 6.4% - Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 1 1.2 Table 2 below provides estimates of population at a more local level of geography with additional detail on the age of the population. Table 2: Estimate of Population by Intermediate Geography 2010 Intermediate Geography Population Children (%) Working Age (%) Pensionable Age (%) Kilmacolm Central Kilmacolm, Quarrier’s, Greenock Upper East/Central Inverkip and Wemyss Bay Port Glasgow Upper East Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central Port Glasgow Upper, West and Central West Braeside, East Inverkip and West Gourock Greenock East Bow Farm, Barrs Cottage, Cowdenknowes & Overton Greenock Upper Central Greenock Town Centre and East Central Braeside, Branchton, Lower Larkfield and Ravenscraig Lower Bow & Larkfield, Fancy Farm, Mallard Bowl Greenock West and Central Gourock Central, Upper East and IRH Gourock Upper and West Central & Upper Larkfield Gourock East, Greenock West and Lyle Road 2,391 3,663 5,582 4,835 4,738 5,247 4,784 5,500 4,390 4,237 5,401 4,501 4,718 5,923 4,320 4,282 5,258 20.6 18.7 20.5 20.0 17.6 17.3 15.4 19.8 15.4 15.3 13.6 23.8 19.3 16.4 14.5 15.4 13.1 53.9 60.2 65.6 58.5 60.9 62.6 64.0 64.0 63.3 63.4 59.6 59.7 61.2 63.0 62.5 59.7 55.4 25.5 21.2 13.9 21.5 21.5 20.1 20.6 16.3 21.3 21.3 26.8 16.5 19.6 20.6 23.0 24.9 31.6 Inverclyde 79,770 17.3% 61.3% 21.4% Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (2008 estimate) 1,755,310 17.9% 63.7% 18.4% Source: National Records of Scotland, 2010 *Children population aged between 0 – 15, working age is population aged between 16 -64 and pensionable age is population aged 65+ 1.3 It will be seen from Tables 1 and 2 above that: Inverclyde’s population has a slightly lower proportion of children than the GCV Region and a higher proportion of the population aged over 65 than the GCV Region as a whole. Consequently there is a lower proportion of the Inverclyde population in the working age bracket than across the GCV Region. There are pockets of population composition that do not conform to the local authority norm. There are notably higher proportions of elderly people in the intermediate geographies that contain Gourock and Kilmacolm and the area of Greenock Town Centre and East Central. Inverkip and Wemyss Bay have a low proportion of elderly residents and a higher than average proportion of the population in the working age category. The intermediate geographies that contain Kilmacolm have a higher than average proportion of children, as do parts of Larkfield (South West Greenock) and Inverkip and Wemyss Bay. 1.4 Figure 1 below illustrates the components of population change in Inverclyde and the GCV Region from 2001 – 2008. Natural change refers to the difference between births and deaths and net migration is the difference between out migration and in migration. 2 Figure 1: Annual Population Change 2001-2008 by Component 1.50% 0.99% 1.00% 0.63% Annual % change 0.61%0.56% 0.50% 0.08% 0.04% 0.00% % annual population change -0.04% % natural change -0.50% % annual net migration -0.08% -0.25% -0.21% -0.32% -0.38% -0.57% -1.00% -1.03% -1.23% -1.50% Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde GCV Region Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 *Net migration in the chart refers to population moving in and out of the local authority area and not between the sub areas Overall, Inverclyde’s population has been declining at an average of -0.57% per year from 2001-2008 whilst the GCV Region has been increasing at an average annual rate of 0.04% per annum. There are marked differences in annual population change within the local authority area. The population in the Inverclyde West sub areas of West Greenock, Gourock and Inverkip & Wemyss Bay have increased at a far higher rate than the whole of the authority and the GCV Region. Migration from outside of the authority has been the main driver of this annual increase and is the highest rate in the GCV Region (0.99% per annum). There have been more deaths than births in Inverclyde West which has resulted in a negative natural change which is perhaps a reflection of the older demography in Gourock and West Greenock. The sub areas of Inverclyde East (Port Glasgow, Greenock Central East and Greenock South West) lost population at a quicker rate than any other part of the GCV Region from 2001 - 20081. Migration is the main driver of this loss and the rate of loss was the greatest in the GCV Region (-1.03% per annum). A recent depopulation study2 commissioned by Inverclyde Council showed that the population decline has been selective and has had a greater impact on young people, young families, and people of working age. The period from 2001 to 2008 was a time of relative economy stability and growth for Scotland and the UK. However, the Inverclyde population still declined over that 1 2 Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 Inverclyde Depopulation Study, Draft Final Report, Slims 2011 3 period. A changing population has implications for local service provision, for the local economy, and the ability of Inverclyde to attract and retain investment. As the population changes, there can be an oversupply of the wrong type of housing which can create problems of low demand dwellings, problems of dereliction, property prices being driven down, and a reduction in revenue can lead to less housing investment. All of these factors create an environment in which it is difficult to attract investment. 2.0 Estimates of Households 2.1 Estimates of households by tenure for the GCV HNDA for 2008 are as shown in Table 3 below. However, the recent Private Sector House Condition Survey by David Adamson and Partners (June 2011) provided up to date estimates showing that there are 27,152 private sector households in 2011, which are made up of 23,544 owner occupied households and 3,517 private rented sector households3. There has been significant growth in the number of private rented sector households since 2008, which is likely to be a result of the dual occurrence of first-time buyer households unable to access owner occupation due to mortgage restrictions and home owners unable to sell properties and offering them for private rent to generate income. Table 3: Household Estimates by Sub Area 2008 and 2011 HNDA Sub Area Inverclyde East (2008) Inverclyde West (2008) Kilmacolm & Quarriers Village (2008) Inverclyde 2008 Social Rented Sector 8,762 1,247 Owner Occupied Sector 13,746 9,175 Private Rented Sector 1,241 741 Households 71 2,082 121 2,274 10,050 25,003 2,103 37,156 23,544 3,517 Inverclyde 2011 23,749 11133 Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 and Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey, David Adamson and Partners, 2011 2.2 Figure 2 below shows the composition of households in the social rented sector and the owner occupied sector in 2009/10. 3 A further 91 households describe as other 4 Figure 2: Household Type in Inverclyde 2009/10 Owner Occupied Sector 2009/10 Social Rented Sector 2009/10 Single pensioner 16% Single pensioner 17% Single adult 12% Single adult 31% Older smaller 10% Small adult 18% Older smaller 16% Large adult 12% Large family 5% Small family 11% Single parent 2% Small adult 7% Large adult 15% Single parent 8% Large family 6% Small family 14% Private Rented Sector 2011 Elderly (2+ person) 4% Elderly (1 person) 11% Large Adult 3% Single Person Non Pensioner 30% Large Family 2% Small Family 17% Single Parent Family 22% Two Person Adult Non Pensioner 11% Source: Social Rented Sector and Owner Occupied information from the Scottish Household Survey 2009/10 and Private Rented Sector information from Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey, David Adamson and Partners, 2011 2.3 Figure 2 shows that: There are a number of notable differences in household composition between the three sectors. The social rented sector is dominated by single person households (47% including single adult and single pensioner) and the private rented sector also has a relatively high proportion of single adults at 41% of total households. By contrast the figure for the owner occupied sector is 29% with only 12% of adults of non-pensioner age in owner occupation. This may be an issue of affordability if there is only one income in the household, i.e. many single households may not be able to afford owner occupation. There are a higher proportion of older households in the owner occupied sector (33%) than in the social rented sector (26%). The local authority average is 28%. 5 Nearly a quarter of households in the social rented sector contain children (large family, small family, and single parent) which is slightly higher than the owner occupied sector however 41% of private rented sector households contain children living in single parent families (22%). This is far higher than the 2009/10 Scottish figure of 8% however, the difference in the dates of the sources should be noted and since 2009/10 there has been a sharp increase in the numbers of households that are renting privately. In terms of comparison with national averages, Inverclyde (across all tenures) has more single adult households in social renting (48% locally compared to 32% nationally) and slightly more single pensioners in owner occupation than social renting (66% locally compared to 62% nationally)4. 2.4 Table 4 below provides a breakdown of household types in the private sector by sub area. Unfortunately, this level of detail is not available for the social rented sector. Table 4: Household Type in the Private Sector (owner occupation and private rented sector) 2011 Port Glasgow Greenock Central East Greenock South West Greenock West Gourock Inverkip & Wemyss Bay Kilmacolm & Quarrier's Village Inverclyde Single Person Single Parent Family Two Person Adult Non Pensioner Small Family Large Family Large Adult Elderly (1 person) Elderly (2+ persons) Total Priv Hlds 11.0% 5.2% 15.7% 27.8% 2.8% 1.1% 17.9% 18.4% 4709 12.4% 17.0% 8.0% 21.3% 3.5% 2.0% 19.2% 16.7% 4505 13.1% 7.2% 12.8% 26.5% 4.5% 3.0% 13.9% 19.0% 5814 15.7% 5.5% 13.2% 19.3% 3.1% 2.9% 20.7% 19.7% 3265 11.4% 3.9% 10.9% 18.5% 1.8% 3.5% 21.4% 28.5% 4602 12.5% 4.1% 17.9% 34.4% 3.7% 3.8% 11.8% 11.9% 2208 8.0% 4.6% 22.6% 23.9% 3.1% 2.0% 11.3% 24.4% 2049 12.2% 7.3% 13.4% 24.1% 3.2% 2.6% 17.2% 20.0% 27,152 Source: Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Sector Main Report 2011, David Adamson 2.5 It will be seen from Table 4 above that: There are variations in household type and size across the authority. In terms of the Inverclyde West sub areas, Gourock has an exceptionally high proportion of older person households (nearly 50%) which is in contrast to Inverkip and Wemyss Bay where the households are more family-based with children. West Greenock has a particularly high proportion of single person households, many of whom are elderly. There are different patterns within the Inverclyde East sub area. Greenock Central East has a relatively high proportion of single parent families and a slightly higher than average proportion of single person households. Greenock South West tends to 4 Scottish Household Survey, Local Authority Analyses, 2009/10 6 have more family and elderly households. Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village has a notably high proportion of two adult households, both pensioner and non-pensioner. 2.6 Figure 5 and Table 5 below shows the age of household reference person and highest income earner of households in Inverclyde, the GCV Region, and in Scotland. 7 Figure 5: Households by Age of Household Reference Person (HRP) 2008 GCV Region Households by Age of Households Reference Person Inverclyde Households by age of Household Reference Person 75+ 11% 16 to 29 10% 75+ 13% 60 to 74 20% 30 to 44 25% 60 to 74 22% 16 to 29 13% 30 to 44 28% 45 to 59 28% 45 to 59 30% In general, households in Inverclyde tend to be slightly older than households in the GCV Region. In Inverclyde, there are a higher proportion of older person households (aged 60 to 74 and 75+) and a lower proportion of younger households aged between 16 to 29 and 30 to 44. This is likely to be the impact of the selective population decline discussed earlier where people that are leaving the area are more likely to be young and are in the main household formation age groups. 2.7 Table 5 below shows the age of households by tenure for Inverclyde and for Scotland as a whole. Table 5: Tenure of household by age of highest income householder 2009/10 Inverclyde Households 16 to 24* 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 to 74 75 plus All Owner occupied 49% 58% 62% 72% 62% Social rented 31% 32% 29% 26% 30% Private rented 20% 10% 7% 2% 8% Scotland Other 1 - Owner occupied 20% 49% 67% 73% 74% 68% 65% Social rented 28% 23% 22% 21% 21% 27% 22% Private rented 49% 26% 10% 5% 3% 3% 11% Other 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% Source: Scottish Household Survey 2009/10 *Sample size for 16 to 24 and 75 plus cohorts is too small for a reliable estimate There tends to be more households in the social rented sector for all age cohorts in Inverclyde than Scotland. Younger households have the same level of owner occupation as the rest of Scotland but the level of owner occupation does not increase in line with the Scottish level as the age of households’ increases. In the age cohorts of 35 to 44 and 45 to 59, Inverclyde has around 10% less households in owner occupation than the rest of Scotland. Reasons for this difference might include 8 lower levels of employability and worklessness (see Tables 8, 9 and 10 below) in this age category. For the age cohort 60 to 74, the level of owner occupation rises steeply and Inverclyde is at a similar level to Scotland. Reasons for this steep increase may be the impact of the historical RTB and older households having the ability to purchase followed by a generation that has not had the work skills or the income to access owner occupation. In the 45 to 59 age group, Inverclyde has a higher percentage of households in private renting and social renting than the rest of Scotland. Again, this may, in part, be a reflection of the socio-economic status of the households at this age. 2.8 Figure 6 below illustrates the comparison between population and household change over the period from 2001 – 2008. Figure 6: Annual Population and Household Change 2001-2008 2.00% 1.76% 1.50% Annual change 1.00% 0.78% 0.64% 0.61%0.56% 0.50% 0.04% 0.04% 0.00% Annual Pop Change -0.50% Annual Hhld Change Difference -0.17% -0.43% -0.57% -0.59% -0.61% -0.81% -1.00% -1.20% -1.23% -1.50% Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde GCV Region Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 The general trend to note from Figure 6 above is that although the population of Inverclyde decreased between 2001 -2008, the number of households increased during the same period. In comparison with the GCV Region, Inverclyde experienced modest household growth between 2001 and 2008. The sub areas within Inverclyde have experienced mixed fortunes with regard to household growth. Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village recorded strong annual household growth which was the second highest annual rate in the GCV Region5. Inverclyde West has also experienced higher than average household growth from 2001 -2008. Household growth for both Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village and Inverclyde West outperformed population growth. 5 Glasgow Central and West had an annual household change of 2.49% from 2001-2008 9 However, Inverclyde East goes against this positive trend as it experienced a decline in household numbers from 2001 to 2008 which was one of the lowest rates in the GCV Region6. To summarise, Inverclyde’s population has continued to decline even when the regional and national economy performed well from 2001 to 2008. The increase in the number of households and the decrease in population suggest that there has been a change in the size and type f households which may continue into the future. 6 Glasgow North East had an annual household change of -0.63% from 2001-2008 10 3.0 Population and Household Projections 3.1 The GCV HNDA produced two sets of population and households projections based on different economic assumptions which would affect net migration numbers for each local authority. A lower migration scenario assumed that, after the initial five years or so, the net migration will be constant, at a rate of -1,050 per year for the GCV Region, for the remainder of the projection period up to 2025. A higher migration scenario assumed a constant net migration of +1,050 per year for ten years, with a resumption of further trend growth thereafter. The ten year delay before improvement in migration resumes has been incorporated in the higher migration scenario in response to the economic appraisal by Oxford Economics7, and is due to the economic downturn. 3.2 Figures 7 and 8 below illustrate the population and households projections for both migration scenarios for Inverclyde and for the GCV Region. Figure 7: Population Projection for Inverclyde and GCV Region 2008-2025 6.0% % change from 2008 4.0% 3.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0 2008 -2.0% 2016 1.3% 2026 -3.2% -3.7% -4.0% -6.0% -6.5% -8.0% -8.3% -10.0% Inverclyde High M igration Inverlcyde Low M igration GCV Region High M igration GCv Region Low M igration Source: GCV Housing Need and Demand Assessment The pattern of population decline is projected to continue for Inverclyde up to 2025, which is in contrast to the projected pattern of the GCV Region population. Both migration scenarios present a declining picture for Inverclyde. Reasons for projected population decline are the same as before – more households are leaving the area than coming into it and there are more deaths than births due to an older demographic profile. Problems associated with population decline have been discussed earlier but it is a matter of continuing concern that other local authorities in the GCV Region have the ability to attract population whilst Inverclyde continues to lose population. A more detailed analysis of the projected population change is available later in this profile. 7 Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region 2009 11 3.3 Figure 8 below shows the projected household change for Inverclyde and the GCV Region. Figure 8: Household Projection for Inverclyde and GCV Region 2008 - 2025 Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 Despite the projected decrease in population, there is a projected increase in the number of households in Inverclyde although the increase is relatively low in comparison with the GCV Region as a whole. For both Inverclyde and the GCV Region, there is a large difference between the rate of projected household change and the rate of population change which would suggest that there will be a change in the size of households. Although the growth in the number of households is relatively positive for Inverclyde, the difference between Inverclyde and the GCV Region is quite stark and along with the population projections, it shows the difference in fortunes between Inverclyde and the surrounding authorities. 3.4 Figure 9 below shows the projected change in household type for Inverclyde from 2008 to 2025. For ease of presentation, only the results for high migration have been presented however the results for the lower migration scenario follow a similar pattern. 12 Figure 9: Projected Changes in Household Type (High Migration Scenario) Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 The difference between population and household projections would suggest there is a changing household structure and size for Inverclyde. Overall, household size is getting smaller, as shown in Figure 9 above. The proportion of single adult households is projected to increase to 43.0% of all households at 2016 and by 2025, 46.9% of all households in Inverclyde are projected to be single adults. This projected pattern is similar for all local authorities in the GCV Region. Family-sized households in Inverclyde are projected to decrease from 25.8% of all households in 2008 to 20.2% at 2025 of households which is slightly lower than the GCV Region projection of 22.0% at 2025. The projected reduction in the number of family-sized households will have implications both for the local economy in terms of lower tax contributions, and for a range of services. 13 3.5 Figure 10 below shows projected changes in the age of the Household Reference Person (i.e. the head of the household) over the period from 2008 to 2025. Figure 10: Projected Changes in Age Household Reference Person (Planning Scenario) Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 Although projected patterns of household structure are similar for Inverclyde and the GCV Region, the projected pattern of age of households differs and some of the general trends seen across the region are more pronounced in Inverclyde. The projected number of older person households (60 to 74 and 75+) is higher for Inverclyde and they will form 44.1% of all households in 2025 compared to 35.6% for the whole of the GCV Region at 2025. Younger person households are projected to decline to 9.6% of all households in Inverclyde whilst the GCV Region projection figure is 11.3% at 2025. This differential will present a number of issues for Inverclyde. A population that is older is more likely to suffer from ill health or to have greater social care requirements. The fall in the younger, working age households reduces the base of people who can contribute to Council Tax to pay for services. This change in age and the contrast with the GCV region suggests that the lower population and migration of younger households and the subsequent effects on the birth rate and household formation rates in Inverclyde is continuing to affect longterm changes in population and household structure. 14 3.6 Household projections by type and age are not available by local authority sub area therefore the type of households leaving and migrating into the Inverclyde West and Inverclyde East areas is unknown. Table 6 below provides an estimate of the total number of households projected to be in each sub area as at 2016, 2020, and 2025. Table 6: Household Projections by HNDA Sub Area (high migration scenario) HNDA Sub Area Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm & Quarriers Village Inverclyde GCV Total 2008 23,749 11,133 2,274 37,156 804,708 2016 24,190 11,340 2,316 37,846 859,147 2020 24,324 11,402 2,329 38,055 885,452 2025 24,436 11,455 2,340 38,231 918,408 Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 15 4.0 Economic Profile of Population and Households Household Income 4.1 Table 7 below shows the household income for Inverclyde and the HNDA sub areas. As with other aspects of the household profile, there are marked differences across the sub areas. Table 7: Household Income for Inverclyde and HNDA sub areas Area Mean Median Lower Quartile Inverclyde East £24,119 £19,334 £11,765 Inverclyde West £38,431 £31,250 £21,000 Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village £50,235 £42,299 £24,285 Inverclyde £30,971 £23,600 £13,571 Source: CACI 2009 The median household income for Scotland was £26,232 in 2009. There are large differences between the median household incomes of the sub areas. The household median income in Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village is almost twice the household income in the Inverclyde East sub area. Almost two thirds of Inverclyde’s households are in the Inverclyde East sub areas of Port Glasgow, Greenock Central East, and Greenock South West and it has the greatest impact on figure for the local authority as a whole. The Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey (2011) reported that the median household income for the private rented sector is £15,080 per annum and for the owner occupied sector it is £27,300 per annum. Employment 4.2 The ‘employment rate’ of an area is simply the proportion of the working age population that is in a job. It is a key labour market participation measure and one of the indicators used to assess Scotland’s progress towards the targets set out in the Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy. Table 8 below illustrates the relative rates for Inverclyde and for the whole of Scotland. Table 8: Employment Rate for Inverclyde and Scotland 2009 Age 16-64 Age 16 -24 Age 25-34 Age 35-49 Age 50-64 Inverclyde 66.7% 46.8% 80.6% 75.4% 61.5% Scotland 71.9% 57.7% 79.5% 81.8% 64.6% Source: Labour Force Survey via Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics, 2009 Inverclyde’s 2009 average employment rate of 71% is below both the Scottish and UK averages of 75% and 74% respectively however it is a substantial improvement on the level of 63% in 20038. Table 8 shows that the population aged 25-34 has the highest 8 Wealthier and Fairer Inverclyde, Slims Consulting 2010 16 employment rate and is the only age group that is higher than Scotland. All of other age groups fall short of the Scottish average. Relatively low rates of employment, especially in the younger age groups, would suggest that there is potentially a proportion of the population that has little financial means to access housing privately and is thus reliant on the affordable sector for accommodation, or they may be sharing accommodation with family and friends. 4.3 Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) is a benefit available to those of working age that are unemployed and seeking work. Table 9 below shows the 2010 claimant count rate of the intermediate geographies of Inverclyde. Table 9: Job Seeker Allowance Claimant Count by Intermediate Geography 2010 Intermediate Geography Kilmacolm Central Kilmacolm, Quarriers, Greenock Upper East/Central Inverkip and Wemyss Bay Port Glasgow Upper East Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central Port Glasgow Upper, West and Central West Braeside, East Inverkip and West Gourock Greenock East Bow Farm, Barrs Cottage, Cowdenknowes and Overton Greenock Upper Central Greenock Town Centre and East Central Braeside, Branchton, Lower Larkfield and Ravenscraig Lower Bow & Larkfield, Fancy Farm, Mallard Bowl Greenock West and Central Gourock Central, Upper East and IRH Gourock Upper and West Central & Upper Larkfield Gourock East, Greenock West and Lyle Road Inverclyde Scotland Claimant Count Rate9 1.5 2.5 1.8 7.6 8.4 5.0 2.9 6.5 3.9 8.0 8.0 8.5 7.3 3.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 5.1% 4.2% Source: Labour Market Statistics, Scottish Government 2010 4.4 There has been a rapid increase in the number of JSA claimants across Inverclyde, Scotland, and the UK over the past 18 months as a result of the recession. In August 2011 the working age population was 51,500 and the JSA Claimant count was 5.9% of all working age people. This is an increase of 19.6% on the same time last year (501 people). There are large variations in the claimant count rates across Inverclyde. Areas in Inverclyde West and Kilmacolm & Quarrier’s Village have a relatively low claimant 9 Count of claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance. The level measures the number of claimants on the second Thursday of each month (the "count date"). The latest provisional data will be added every month. The local area claimant count is not seasonally adjusted. The denominator used to calculate local area claimant count rates for is resident population (aged 16-64). 17 count compared to the authority average and areas in Port Glasgow and in Greenock Central East have significantly higher rates of unemployment. 4.5 Table 10 below shows that average resident wages are higher than average workplace wages and the higher than average resident-to workplace ratio indicates that residents from Inverclyde have high earning jobs outside of the authority area. The average workplace wages in Inverclyde are significantly lower than both the GCV Region and Scotland as a whole. This suggests that Inverclyde has more low skill, low paid employment than neighbouring local authorities. However as the average resident wage is higher than the workplace wage it may be the case that the resident population is more skilled than the employment opportunities available locally. Table 10: Average weekly earnings for Inverclyde and GCV Region 2009 Inverclyde GCV area Scotland Average weekly wage - residence based 2009 £428.80 £457.30 £457.00 Average weekly wage - workplace based 2009 £388.50 £457.80 £455.50 resident/ workplace ratio 1.10 1.00 1.00 Source: Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region 2009 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 4.6 Deprivation and regeneration are long-recognised priorities in Inverclyde. This has a close relationship with housing in terms of neighbourhoods and tenure. The social sector has increasingly come to house mainly households that are income-poor or otherwise deprived, due to the impact of policies such as the Right to Buy. Spatial concentrations of deprived households and people have become closely tied to spatial concentrations of social housing. The Inverclyde Alliance produced a report on the results of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 for Inverclyde and the following key results were highlighted: Inverclyde has had increasing numbers of data zones in the 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% that are most deprived, making it relatively worse off between 2004 and 2009. The most deprived datazone in Inverclyde is Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central. The data zones in the 5% most deprived bracket contain the highest concentration of multiple deprivation and Inverclyde has the second highest local share with 15.5% of it’s datazones in the 5% most deprived data zones. Inverclyde has the second highest local share with 39% of its data zones in the15% most deprived in Scotland. Glasgow City has the highest proportion at 43.1%. Around 45% of data zones in Inverclyde are ranked in Scotland’s 20% most deprived data zones in the SIMD 2009. Inverclyde has seen an increase in the proportion of its data zones in the 10% most deprived and a decrease in data zones in the 10-20% most deprived over the three versions of the SIMD. The five local authorities with the largest proportion of data zones in the 15% most deprived are Glasgow City, Inverclyde, Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire, and 18 North Ayrshire. On the income domain in SIMD 2009, 39 (35.5%) of Inverclyde’s 110 data zones were found in the 15% most deprived data zones in Scotland, compared to 40 (36.4%) in 2006 and 31 (28.2%) in 2004. The most deprived data zone in terms of income domain in Inverclyde is Greenock East. In the employment domain, 42 (38.2%) of Inverclyde’s 110 data zones were found in the 15% most deprived data zones in Scotland, compared to 46 (41.8%) in 2006 and 37 (33.6%) in 2004. The most deprived data zone on the SIMD 2009 employment domain in Inverclyde is Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central. Inverclyde has the second highest percentage of employment deprived people, but there has been a decrease between SIMD 2006 and SIMD 2009. This fall means other areas will see an increase in levels of deprived data zones. 19