References

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References
1. Basic measure theory and probability theories
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Bartle, R.G. (1966), The Elements of Integration and Lebesgue Measure, New York: Wiley.
Billingsley, P. (1968), Convergence of Probability Measures, New York: Wiley.
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Davidson, J. (1994), Stochastic Limit Theory, New York: Oxford University Press.
Doob, J.L. (1994), Measure Theory, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Karatzas, I. and S. E. Shreve, (1991), Brownian motion and stochastic Calculus, 2nd. ed., New York:
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Klebaner, F. (2005), Introduction to Stochastic Calculus with Applications, 2nd. ed, London: Imperial
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Lamperti, J.W. (1996), Probability: A Survey of the Mathematical Theory, 2nd ed, New York: Wiley.
Ludwig, A. (1974), Stochastic Differential Equations: Theory and Applications, New York : Wiley.
White, H. (1999), Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians, Revised edition, San Diego: Academic Press.
2. Stationary time series
Ali, M.M. (1977), Analysis of autoregressive-moving average models: estimation and prediction,
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Andrews, D.W.K., (1991), Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation,
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Andrews, D.W.K. and J.C. Monahan (1992), An improved heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent
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Ansley, C.F. (1979), An algorithm for the exact likelihood of a mixed autoregressive-moving average
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Newey, W.K. and K.D. West (1987), A simple positive definite heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
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3. Model selection
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Schwarz, G. (1978), Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
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Biometrika, 63, 117-126.
4. Diagnosis test for ARMA models
Box, G.E.P. and D.A. Pierce, (1970), Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive
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Davies, N., C.M. Triggs, and P. Newbold (1977), Significance levels of the Box-Pierce portmanteau test
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5. Sprectual analysis
Granger, C.W.J. (1969), Investigating casual relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods,
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6. ARCH and GARCH models
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Bollerslev, T. (1986), Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics,
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Bollerslev, T. and E. Ghysels (1996), Periodic autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics, 14, 139-151.
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Engle, R.F. (1982), Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United
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Engle, R. F. and T. Bollerlsev, (1986), Modelling the persistence of conditional variances, Econometric
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Higgins, M.L. and A.K. Bera (1992), A class of nonlinear ARCH models, International Economic Review 33,
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Nelson, D. B. (1990), Stationarity and persistence in the GARCH(1,1) model, Econometric theory, 6,
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Nelson, D. B. (1991), Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach, Econometrica, 59,
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7. Unit root tests
Agiakloglou, C and P. Newblod (1992), Empirical evidence on Dickey-Fuller type tests, Journal of Time
Series Analysis, 13, 471-483.
Agiakloglou, C and P. Newblod (1996), The balance between size and power in Dickey-Fuller tests with
data dependent rules for the choice of truncation lag, Economics letters, 52, 229-234.
Balke, N.S. and T.B. Fomby (1991a), Infrequent permanent shocks and the finite-sample performance of
unit root tests, Economics Letters, 36, 269-273.
Bhargava, A. (1986), On the theory of testing for unit roots in observed time series, Review of Economic
Studies, 53, 369-384.
Beveridge, S. and C.R. Nelson (1981), A New approach to the decomposition of economic time series into
permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’.
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Bhargava, A. (1996), Some properties of exact tests for unit roots, Biometrika, 83, 944-949.
Blough, S.R. (1992), The relationship between power and level for generic unit root tests in finite samples.
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, 355-366.
Cheung, Y-W. and K.S. Lai (1995), Lag order and critical values of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test,
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 277-280.
Cochrane, J.H. (1988), How big is the random walk in GNP? , Journal of Political Economy. 96, 893-920.
Cochrane, J.H. (1991), A critique of the application of unit root tests, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
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Control, 15, 275-284.
Cochrane, J.H. (1994), Permanent and transitory components of GNP and stock prices, Quarterly Journal of
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Cogley, T. (1990), International evidence on the size of the random walk in output, Journal of Political
Economy, 98, 501-518.
DeJong, D.N., J.C. Nankervis, N.E. Savin, and C.H. Whiteman. (1992), The power problems of unit root
tests in time series with autoregressive errors, Journal of Econometrics, 53, 323-343.
Dickey, D.A., W.R. Bell, and R.B. Miller (1986), Unit root series model: Tests and implications, The
American Statistician, 40, 12-26.
Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979), Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a
unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427-431.
Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1981), Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit
root, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Diebold, F.X. and M. Nerlove (1990), Unit roots in economic time series: A selective survey, Advances in
Econometrics, 8, 3-69.
Dods, J.L. and D.E.A Giles (1995), Alternative strategies for ‘augmenting’ the Dickey-Fuller test:
Size-robustness in face of pre-testing, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 53, 243-258.
Doukas, J. (1990), On unit roots and the persistent dependence of future prices, Advances in Econometrics,
8, 295-306.
Elliott, G., T. Rothenberg, and J. Stock (1996), Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica,
64, 813-836.
Faust, J. (1996), Near observational equivalence and theoretical size problems with unit root tests,
Econometric theory, 12, 724-731.
Ferretti, N. and J. Romo (1996), Unit root bootstrap tests for AR(1) models, Biometrika, 83, 849-860.
Franses, P.H. and F. Kleibergen (1996), Unit roots in the Nelson-Plosser data: do they matter for
forecasting? , Internationl Journal of Forecasting, 12, 283-288.
Hall, A (1989), Testing for a unit root in the presence of moving average error, Biometrika, 76, 49-56.
Hansen, B.E. (1995), Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: using covariates to increase
power, Econometric Theory, 11, 1148-1171.
Hasan, M.N. and R.W. Koenker (1997), Robust tests of the unit root hypothesis, Econometrica, 65,133-161.
Kahn, J.A. and M. Ogaki (1992), A consistent test for the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit
root, Economics Letters, 39, 7-11.
Kim, K. and P. Schmidt (1990), Some evidence on the accuracy of Phillips-Perron tests using alternative
estimates of nuisance parameters, Economic letters, 34, 345-350.
Kwiatkoswki. D., P.C.B Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin (1992), Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity
against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? , Journal
of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
Lo, A.W. and A.C. MacKinlay (1988), Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a
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simple specification test, Review of Financial Studies, 1, 41-66.
Lo, A.W. and A.C. MacKinlay (1989), The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples: A
Monte Carlo investigation, Journal of Econometrics, 40, 203-238.
Lucas, A. (1995), Unit root teats based on M estimators, Econometric Theory, 11, 331-346.
Miller, J.P., and P. Newbold (1995b), A generalized variance ratio test ARIMA (p,l,q) model specification,
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 16, 403-413.
Nabeya, S and K. Tanaka (1996), Asymptotic theory of a test for the constancy of regression coefficients
against the random walk alternative, Annals of Statistics, 16, 218-235.
Nelson, C.R. and C.I. Piosser (1982), Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some
evidence and implications, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-169.
Newbold, P. (1990), Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic
time series, Journal of Monetary Economics, 26, 453-457.
Newbold, P and D. Vougas (1996), Drift in the relative price of commodities: A case where we care about
unit roots, Applied Economics, 28, 653-661.
Ng, S. and P. Perron (1995), Unit roots tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for selection of
the truncation lag, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 268-281.
Pantula, S.G. (1991), Testing for unit roots in time series data, Econometric Theory, 5, 265-271.
Pantula, S.G., G. Gonzalez-Farias, and W.A. Fuller (1994), A comparison of unit roots criteria, Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 449-459.
Park, H.J. and W.A. Fuller (1995), Alternative estimators and unit roots tests for the autoregressive process,
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 16, 415-429.
Perron, P. (1989), The Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis, Econometrica, 57,
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Perron, P. (1990a), Tests of joint hypotheses for time series regression with a unit root, Advances in
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Perron, P. and S. Ng (1996), Useful modifications to some unit root tests with dependent errors and their
local asymptotic properties, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 435-463.
Phillips, P.C.B. (1987a). Time series regression with a unit root, Econometrica, 55, 277-301.
Phillips, P.C.B. (1987b), Towards a unified asymptotic theory of autoregression, Biometrika, 74, 535-548.
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Phillips, P.C.B. and V. Solo (1992), Asymptotics for linear processes, Annals of Statistics, 20, 971-1001.
Said, S. and D.A. Dickey (1984), Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of
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Said, S. and D.A. Dickey (1985), Hypothesis testing in ARIMA (p,l,q) models, Journal of the American
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Saikkonen, P. and R. Luukkonen (1993), Testing for a moving average unit root in autoregressive integrated
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Saikkonen, P. and R. Luukkonen (1996), Testing the order of differencing in time series regression, Journal
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Schmidt, P. (1990), Dickey-Fuller tests with drift, Advances in Econometrics, 8, 161-200.
Schmidt, P. and P. C. B. Phillips, (1992), LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends,
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Schwert, G.W. (1989), Tests for unit roots: A Monte Carlo investigation, Journal of Business and Economic
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Shin, D.W., S. Sarkar, and J.H. Lee (1996), Unit root tests for time series with outliers, Statistics and
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Tanaka, K. (1990), Testing for a moving average unit root, Econometric Theory, 6, 445-458.
West, K. (1988), Asymptotic normality when regressors have a unit root, Econometrica, 56, 1397-1417.
Yap, S.F. and G. Reinsel (1995), Results on estimation and testing for a unit root in the nonstationary
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Zivot, E. and D.W.K. Andrews (1992), Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit
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8. Spurious regression model
Davidson, R. and J.G. MacKinnon (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, New York: Oxford
University Press.
Granger, C.W.J. and P. Newbold (1974), Spurious regressions in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2,
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Nelson, C.R. and H. Kang (1981), Spurious periodicity in inappropriately detrended time series,
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Phillips, P.C.B. (1986), Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics 33,
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Phillips, P.C.B., (1998), New tools for understanding spurious regressions, Econometrica, 66, 1299-1326.
9. VAR models
Hamilton, J.D. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hendry, D.F. (1995), Dynamic Econometrics, New York: Oxford University Press.
Newbold, P. (1991), Structural decomposition of time series with implications in economics, Accounting
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Phillips, P.C.B. and S.N. Durlauf (1986), Multiple time series regression with a unit root, Review of
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Waston, M. (1994), Vector autoregressions and cointegration, In Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, R.
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10. Cointegration
Banerjee, A., J. Dolado, J.W. Galbraith, and D.F. Hendry (1993), Co-Integration Error-Correction, and the
Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, New York: Oxford University Press.
Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: Wiley.
Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and error-correction: Representation, estimation and
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Engle, R.F. and B.S. Yoo (1987), Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems, Journal of Econometrics,
35, 143-159.
Franses, P.H. and N. Haldrup (1994), The effects of additive outliers on tests of unit roots and cointegration,
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Granger, C.W.J. (1986), Developments in the study of cointegrated systems, Oxford Bulletin of Economics
and Statistics, 48, 213-228.
Granger, C.W. J. and T. Lee (1990), Multicointegration, Advances in Econometrics, 8, 71-84.
Granger, C.W.J., and N. Swanson (1996), Further developments in the study of cointegrated variables,
Oxford Bulletin of Economic Statistics, 58, 537-553.
Hatanaka, M. (1996), Time-Series-Based Econometrics: Unit Roots and Cointegration, New York: Oxford
University Press.
Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, 12, 231-255.
Johansen, S. (1991), Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector
autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
MacKinnon, J.G. (1996), Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests, Journal of
Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
Mishkin, F.S. (1995), Nonstationarity of regressors and tests on real-interest-rate behavior, Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 47-51.
Muscatelli, V.A. and S. Hurn (1992), Cointegration and dynamic time series models, Journal of Economic
Surveys, 6, 1-43.
Park, J.Y. and P.C.B Phillips (1989), Statistical inference in regressions with integrated processes: Part 1,
Econometric Theory, 4, 468-498.
Park, J.Y., and P.C.B Phillips (1989), Statistical inference in regressions with integrated processes: Part 2,
Econometric Theory, 5, 95-132.
Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin and R. J. Smith (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level
relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Phillips, P.C.B. (1991), Optimal inference in cointegrated systems, Econometrica, 59, 283-306.
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Phillips, P.C.B. (1995), Fully modified least squares and vector autoregression, Econometrica, 63,
1023-1078.
Phillips, P.C.B. and M. Loretan (1991), Estimating long-run Economic equilibria, Review of Economic
Studies, 58, 407-436.
Phillips, P.C.B. and S. Ouliaris (1988), Testing for cointegration using principal components methods,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 205-230.
Phillips, P.C.B. and S. Ouliaris (1990), Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration,
Econometrica, 58, 165-193.
Salmon, M. (1982), Error correction mechanisms, Economic Journal, 92, 615-629.
Tanaka, K. (1996), Time Series Analysis: Nonstationary and noninvertible distribution theory, New York:
Wiley.
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