PROJECT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REQUEST FOR Intersessional Work Program Inclusion
UNDER THE Special Climate Change Fund
GEFSEC PROJECT ID: 3265
IA/ExA PROJECT ID: P105229
COUNTRY: People's Republic of China
PROJECT TITLE: Mainstreaming Adaptation to
Climate Change into Water Resources
Management and Rural Development
GEF IA/ExA: World Bank
OTHER PROJECT EXECUTING AGENCY(IES):
Ministry of Finance
DURATION: 5 years
GEF FOCAL AREA: Climate Change
GEF STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES: Special Climate
Change Fund (SCCF)
GEF OPERATIONAL PROGRAM: Adaptation
PIPELINE ENTRY DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2006
EXPECTED STARTING DATE: DECEMBER 2007
EXPECTED CEO ENDORSEMENT: OCT/NOV
2007
IA/ExA FEE: $531,600
FINANCING PLAN ($)
PPG
Project*
GEF Total
316,000
5,000,000
Co-financing
(provide details in Section b: Cofinancing)
GEF IA/ExA
18,300,000
Government
500,000 31,700,000
Others
Co-financing
500,000 50,000,000
Total
Total
816,000 55,000,000
Financing for Associated Activities If
Any:
** For multi-focal projects, indicate agreed split between
focal area allocations
FOR JOINT PARTNERSHIP**
GEF PROJECT/COMPONENT ($)
(Agency Name)
(Share)
(Agency Name)
(Share)
(Agency Name)
(Share)
(Fee)
(Fee)
(Fee)
*** Projects that are jointly implemented by more
than one IA or ExA
CONTRIBUTION TO KEY INDICATORS IDENTIFIED IN THE FOCAL AREA STRATEGIES: The
proposed project would contribute to reducing vulnerability to climate variability and high
water pressure in rural Northern China by demonstrating and implementing water saving and
other agricultural adaptation measures. The project would also contribute to the increasing
adaptive capacity of farmers and other stakeholders by mainstreaming adaptation into the
national Comprehensive Agricultural Development program in China and its Irrigated
Agriculture Intensification III Project, supported by the World Bank.
Approved on behalf of the World Bank. This proposal has been prepared in accordance with GEF
policies and procedures and meets the standards of the GEF Project Review Criteria for work
program inclusion.
Mahesh Sharma
Project Contact Person
Steve Gorman
IA/ExA Coordinator
Date: June 22, 2007
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
Tel. and email:458-7339,
msharma@worldbank.org
1
1.
PROJECT SUMMARY
a) PROJECT RATIONALE, OBJECTIVES, OUTCOMES/OUTPUTS, AND ACTIVITIES.
Overall, China ranks at the bottom 25 percent of countries in water availability per
capita. Within China, the per capita availability of water in the North China Plain or
Huang-Huai-Hai Basin (3H Basin) is only about one-third of the national average
and about half the amount specified in the United Nations as the standard for
maintaining socioeconomic and environmental development. At the same time, the
3H Basin is China’s prime agricultural area and breadbasket, producing some 50
percent of national grain output and accounting for about 35 percent of national
industrial output. The basin also has a population of 425 million people, which, if it
were not in China, would be the third largest country in the world. Water demand in
the region is already high and is growing. However, available water resources
generally are fully allocated and often overexploited. In many locations, increasing
water quality degradation is exacerbating water shortage problems. The projected
changes in climate could further decrease water stream flows and groundwater
recharges in the Basin, while increasing irrigation water demand and withdrawals
due to higher temperatures and consequent higher crop evapo-transpiration (ET) and
evaporation from the soil.
It has been shown recently that grain production has been stagnant for a number of
consecutive years in the 3H Basin area due in part to climate variability. Given the
current global warming trend, China’s irrigation-based agriculture in this basin will
be further negatively affected by climate change, and remedial measures need to be
taken to ameliorate these effects. In fact, past and current interventions generally
have not addressed climate change and how to adapt to it. This is the case, for
example, with the country’s National Comprehensive Agricultural Development
Program (CAD) and the Bank-supported Irrigated Agriculture Intensification III
Project (IAIL3). The objectives and components of IAIL3 are important and needed,
but their design did not take into consideration climate change factors and how to
deal with them. IAIL3 needs to be strengthened to include measures for adaptation
to climate change.
Project Development Objectives and Expected Outcome: The project
development objective is to enhance the resilience of agricultural and water
development to climate change in the 3H Basin through: (a) selecting, developing,
implementing and promoting adoption of selected climate change adaptation
measures and techniques by main stakeholders at selected demonstration areas in the
3H Basin; and (b) mainstreaming and incorporating such demonstrated adaptation
measures into the national CAD program.
The main project development impact indicators would be: (i) increased water and
agricultural productivity (kg/m3); (ii) improved irrigation efficiency (%); (iii)
relevant CC adaptation measures/techniques implemented in selected demonstrated
areas (ha) by the broad stakeholders participation (number of farm households) at
selected sites; and (iv) policies, mechanisms and instruments for adaptation to
climate change formulated and integrated into the national CAD operation system.
As a result of the proposed project, agriculture and farmers in Northern China would
become more resilient to climate variability and adaptation to climate change
consideration and measures would be integrated into the national rural development
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2
process through IAIL3 project and CAD program. The project would also contribute
to poverty reduction in that it will, through behavioral change, introduce new
concepts of risk management, new standards in irrigation infrastructure, and the use
of natural resilience (land, water, forests) to moderate extreme weather conditions.
Project Components: In line with the above objectives, and based on a preliminary
gap analysis of IAIL3 from a climate change adaptation perspective, the proposed
GEF project would include the following components:
Component 1: Identification and Prioritization of Adaptation Options. Adaptation
involves making adjustments in economic, social or ecological systems in response
to the potential impacts of actual or expected changes in climate. The goal of
adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of individuals, communities, regions, or
activities to climatic change and its variability. Understanding adaptation to climate
change is important for two reasons: (i) reducing the final impacts of climate change
and thus vulnerability; and (ii) what specifically should be done in different places
over different time periods to facilitate adaptation. This component would be started
during preparation under the PPG. Specific activities include:
(a) Impact assessment of climate change in 3-H Basin and project area. The
activities would include: (i) stocktaking of previous studies on assessment of
vulnerability to climate change and potential adaptation options; (ii) testing and
adapting existing hydrology and agricultural production models to generate
dynamic responses to climate and resulting changes in land cover-land use
(including cropping patterns) changes; (iii) assessing the sensitivity of 3-H Basin
agriculture to climate and water availability; (vi) conducting farm householdlevel analyses in project areas in 3H Basin to determine climate sensitivity, water
demand, and adaptation response and asses the effectiveness of household and
community level adaptation options in the face of projected climate change The
work would integrate all the relevant climatological, hydrological, and economic
aspects. The analysis would capture both climate change impact and adaptations
(i) in agriculture and irrigation (climate sensitivity), and (ii) in water resources
management (at the river basin level). The use of these state-of-the-art modeling
techniques to integrate climate, hydrology and agricultural economics over key
spatial and time scales is an important and essential innovation in the approaches
that will be adopted under the proposed project; and
(b) Prioritization and selection of adaptation measures and demonstration areas.
The activities would include: (i) conducting a gap analysis of IAIL3 to identify
adaptation measures and developing a plan for their implementation; (ii)
identifying and selecting adaptation demonstration areas in accordance with
well-defined selection criteria. Priority will be given to areas which are both
highly vulnerable and have a high likelihood of making significant impacts in
terms of strengthening resilience to climate change; and (iii) using the above
models and scientific technical analysis to select and refine adaptation options
taking into account their cost of implementation and impacts for each project
province and demonstration area.
Component 2:: Demonstration and implementation of adaptation measures. The
objective of this component is to introduce, demonstrate, and implement the specific
adaptation measures in selected demonstration areas, and adjust and integrate
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appropriate adaptation measures into the implementation of IAIL3 project. As
described above, the demonstration sites are part of the IAIL3 project area. Special
demonstration sites under IAIL3 outside the 3H Basin may be also selected to
illustrate adaptation under specific climate change conditions for adaptation. The
sub-components would include activities to:
(a) Introduce, demonstrate, and implement specific adaptation measures in
selected demonstration areas. Based on the gap analysis and preliminary
conclusions of scientific studies under component 1, initially identified
demonstration adaptation measures and relevant techniques for each specific
demonstration area, in consultation with the concerned stakeholders (farmers and
farmer communities, experts, local officials, etc.), would be introduced and
demonstrated in each related sub-region of the 3-H Basin (focusing on
agricultural production and rural water management and utilization taking into
account temperature increase). Specific new activities (in addition to IAIL3)
include: (i) explore/develop alternative water sources based on each sub-region’s
conditions, including the development of catchments (natural and artificial
ponds) to enhance rainfall storage capacity and reduce water logging threats in
the alluvial plain, well-based irrigation with reinforced prevention and resistance
to drought in Huang-Hai plain, and advanced field water-saving irrigation
technologies and works; (ii) promote adaptation-oriented farming practices,
including adjustment of agricultural farming pattern to reduce water
consumption (proportion of wheat-rice, wheat-rape and other crop would be
suitably adjusted based on the climate change tendency), combining drainage
with irrigation to avoid the soil deterioration in Huang-Hai plain; and (iii) adopt
water saving oriented farming technologies, including development of drought
resistant varieties, “seeded in water”, membrane and biological water
conservation, etc., to deal with water scarcity, land and eco-system rehabilitation
and amelioration. Water pollution control measures also would be tested at noncontrol points. The identified innovative adaptation activities would be
implemented and tested in selected demonstration area, and emerging good
practices and lessons would be supported, expanded and promoted where
appropriate in all IAIL3 project area.
(b) Integrate and expand appropriate adaptation measures into IAIL3 project
implementation. The proposed project would specifically focus on IAIL3
selected activities (which did not consider climate change in its design) that are
identified as being at risk from climate change. The scientific analysis and
modeling (under component 1) would be applied in the design of these
components leading to more climate resilient outcomes (sometimes referred to as
“climate proofing”). Based on a gap analysis of IAIL3 from a climate change
perspective, this component will review and refine the original IAIL3 technical
design for all adaptation related activities, and adjust the IAIL3 project
Implementation Plan to respond to impacts of both short term climate variability
as well as long term change in each region. All identified IAIL3 activities related
to adaptation measures would be supported and expanded where appropriate.
These include the following IAIL3 sub-components: (i) the implementation of
engineering water-saving measures, including various water-saving irrigation
and drainage technologies and facilities; (ii) the implementation of agronomic
water-saving measures, including land leveling, deep plowing, balanced fertilizer
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use, recycling of crop residues, introduction of improved quality seeds, on-farm
forestry belts and restoration of riparian zones, etc.; and (iii) the implementation
of water-saving management measures, including development of water user
association and farmers’ professional cooperatives, installation of water
measuring facilities and equipment, and preparation and implementation of
groundwater management plans in water-short counties in Hebei project areas,
pilot crop evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring and management programs.
Component 3: Mainstreaming adaptation in the national Comprehensive
Agricultural Development (CAD) program and institutional strengthening. The
component would aim at integrating climate change “adaptation” in the national
CAD program. Given CAD’s limited experience and capacity with this issue, a
series of capacity building, technical assistance, knowledge sharing, and public
awareness activities would be needed. Based in part on experience with adaptation
activities under IAIL3, a “national climate change adaptation plan” for CAD would
be prepared under the leadership of SOCAD, with the close cooperation of NDRC’s
and MOF’s national climate change adaptation offices. The main activities under
this component would include:
(a) development of the national CAD climate change adaptation policy and
replication/implementation plan; (b) capacity building including
training/workshops, technical assistance, study tours, and information
dissemination; (c) implementation of a results-based monitoring and evaluation
(M&E) system and a management information system (MIS) focusing on
adaptation measures. The M&E for adaptation would be linked to and
coordinated with (and may be added on to) the comprehensive M&E system of
IAIL3 and will be designed to regularly assess the effectiveness of adaptation
implementation mechanisms and measures; and (d) project management and
institutional coordination; in particular, development of mechanisms to promote
and support cooperative work on adaptation between MOF, NDRC, and
SOCAD.
b) KEY INDICATORS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND RISKS (FROM LOGFRAME)
The main project development impact indicators would be: (i) increased water and
agricultural productivity (kg/m3); (ii) improved irrigation efficiency (%); (iii)
relevant CC adaptation measures/techniques implemented in selected demonstrated
areas (ha) by the broad stakeholders participation (number of farm households) at
selected sites; and (iv) policies, mechanisms and instruments for adaptation to
climate change formulated and integrated into the national CAD operation system.
These indicators would be studied in detail and finalized during project appraisal
(see Annex 3 of Project Brief for details of outcome and results indicators).
Assumptions. The key strategic assumption is that GOC’s proactive policies and
programs for climate change adaptation will continue; given the top priority it has
put on farmers' income, agricultural and water productivity, sustainable participatory
rural water management and agro-ecological environmental protection. It is also
assumed that, with the assistance of this project supported by the GEF and SCCF,
the Chinese national CAD program and its executive office - SOCAD - and the six
participating provinces (Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shangdong, and Ninxia) will
be able to quickly start demonstration and implementation of climate change
adaptation measures, based on improved knowledge and awareness of the
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importance of adaptation to climate change. Both IAIL 3 project and CAD will also
provide appropriate frameworks to ensure the sustainability of this GEF adaptation
project.
The project faces low overall risk. A preliminary risk assessment has been carried
out to identify the operation-specific risks and mitigation measures of the project.
The most important risk for the project is that of delay in its process, which would
put the project “out of synch” with IAIL3 and would limit the opportunity for
leveraging climate change adaptation inputs through IAIL3. The project task team
and SOCAD have agreed to focus all their efforts on the preparation of adaptation
components as this will further strengthen the IAIL3 implementation and
effectiveness. They also agreed to adjust the IAIL3 implementation time table in
case preparation of the GEF adaptation project is delayed. See Project Brief, main
text E for project risk analysis.
The proposed project is taking a pilot and experimental approach, because many in
the country are now becoming aware of the serious new threats being generated by
climate change in China. In addition, the adaptation project will also use state-ofthe-art models for assessment of possible interactions between both uncertain
climates and uncertain interventions and behavioral responses to reduce irreversible
mistakes. Therefore, the combined use of climate change trend estimation,
hydrologic and economic modeling, as well as empirical experiences is also
designed as risk reducing measures.
2.
COUNTRY OWNERSHIP
a) COUNTRY ELIGIBILITY
China ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol on January 5, 1993 and August 30, 2002
respectively. It joined the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on January 5,
1993, and the United Nations Convention on Drought and Desertification (UNCCD)
on October 14, 1994. China is therefore eligible for Special Climate Change Fund
(SDDF) and GEF resources.
b) COUNTRY DRIVENESS
Recently, China has also developed a strong policy and strategic framework to
support climate change adaptation. China has set out several national environment
and sustainable development policies, strategies, and programs, all of which now
identify adaptation to climate change as a national priority. The main thrusts of these
programs can be summarized as follows:
(a) Initial National Communication on Climate Change. China’s Initial National
Communication on Climate Change submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in
October 2004 aims to enable China to fulfill its commitments under the
UNFCCC and include its Chapter three of this communication, entitled “Impacts
of Climate Change and Adaptation”. China has started to take relevant
adaptation measures, including promulgating 13 related laws and regulations,
constructing water conservation projects, planning water diversion from the
South to the North, adjusting the agricultural cropping patterns and systems, and
cultivating and spreading the new drought-resistant varieties.
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(b) National Strategy for Climate Change. China’s National Strategy for Climate
Change has been recently formulated by the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Finance (MOF) and is ready for
implementation. The strategy emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation and
indicates preliminary adaptation measures. The strategy identifies agriculture
and water as China’s national priorities for climate change adaptation.
(c) New Environmental Protection Standards. As part of its 11th Five-Year
Development Plan (2006–2010) (FYP), China adopted new environmental
protection standards, which were approved in February 2006. According to the
FYP, the State will enact and amend over 1,000 environmental standards. It will
also draft and enact specific industry discharge standards for different sectors.
The FYP provides a favorable policy framework to adopt and incorporate
climate change adaptation measures in the development agenda.
(d) Ongoing National Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD)
Program and the IAIL3 project. The CAD program is China’s largest agricultural
program. IAIL3 was approved in October 2005 for a World Bank loan of $200
million against a total cost of $463 million and is an important component of
CAD. IAIL3 supports sustainable development of modern irrigated agriculture in
the 5 provinces of the 3H Basin. IAIL3 also provides an important "best
practice" demonstration framework for the CAD program because 85 percent of
its investment targets improved on-farm water-saving irrigation, agriculture, and
water management. Therefore, IAIL3 and, more broadly, CAD provide a ready
opportunity to introduce climate change adaptation concepts and measures in a
large development program. In addition, these two programs enjoy policy and
coordination support at the highest level. Indeed, the State Council is the
coordinating agency for CAD, and the State Office for Comprehensive
Agricultural Development (SOCAD) under the Ministry of Finance is the
executing agency for both CAD and IAIL3.
3.
PROGRAM AND POLICY CONFORMITY
a) FIT TO GEF FOCAL AREA STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND OPERATION PROGRAM
The proposed project is in line with the GEF strategic objectives and operational
program for adaptation in the climate change focal area. The project is expected to
contribute to increase the resilience of rural Northen China to climate change
variability and high water pressure through demonstration and implementation of
climate change adaptation measures. The project would also contribute to
strengthening adaptive capacity of local communities and other stake holders
through mainstreaming adaptation into World Bank supported IAIL3 project and the
national CAD program.
b) SUSTAINABILITY (INCLUDING
FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY)
The proposed project is designed in a way that will ensure that results are
sustainable. The project’s design is to demonstrate adaptation implementation and
integrate adaptation into the irrigation improvement program, water management,
and rural development contexts. The SCCF component will provide an interactive
and analytical framework to assess current irrigation practices and cropping patterns
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and test a comprehensive and integrated adaptation methodology and approach in
demonstration areas during and beyond the lifetime of the project. The fact that the
project is blended with China Irrigated Agriculture Intensification III Project, and
that adaptation will be used to address gaps from IAIL3 and will be replicated within
the CAD program will contribute directly to China’s new rural development models.
In addition, this project will focus on increasing the ability of local communities to
control their own resources and other factors that determine their livelihood
opportunities. All these characteristics will strengthen sustainability of the project,
including financial sustainability.
c) REPLICABILITY
Replicability will be ensured through the following designs: (a) government’s
leading role enhanced institutional capacities and co-ordination among different
sectors; (b) demonstration will cover different types of adaptation activities based on
different climate and socio-economic development conditions in China; (c)
experiences and lessons of demonstrations will be promoted and disseminated with
the support of the governments at different levels; (d) The national CAD program
will be the national framework to replicate the comprehensive adaptation models to
other provinces and counties all over China.
d) STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
To establish adaptation priorities, engagement with stakeholders is essential to
understand their needs and constraints. Major direct intended beneficiaries of the
project are farmers and local communities in demonstration areas, though farmers in
other areas, private sector, and governments at different levels could also benefit
from the project through replication. Therefore, it is fundamental to gather the most
useful stakeholder input, and a careful planning of an inclusive stakeholder dialogue
should include (a) a wide range of viewpoints, and thereby (b) enable the project to
respond to adaptation priorities.
Preparation of the proposed GEF project has paid close attention to public
participation. The project will involve key stakeholders in the design and
implementation of the project. Extensive consultations were conducted with farmers
on the possible components to ascertain their views and priorities on issues affecting
agricultural development and climate change adaptation, as well as their own
livelihood. A survey of 5,070 farm households under IAIL3 showed that project
area farmers looked forward to on-farm work, improving irrigation efficiency, and
wanted to participate voluntarily in their activities through labor inputs. A number of
consultations during the preparation of the GEF project also showed that farmers
would welcome adaptation measures, as those would eventually help them further
reduce risks arising from climate change. To help strengthen individual farmers to
deal flexibly with climate change, support for expansion of Water Users'
Associations (WUAs) and Farmers' Associations (FAs) has been included in IAIL3
to enable the farmers to participate in decision-making relating to local irrigation
management and agricultural production. Each of the IAIL3 provinces have
prepared WUA and FA development plans conducive to processing adaptation to
climate change in agriculture as part of project design. In doing so, care was also
taken to ensure inclusion participation of women farmers in WUAs and FAs,
particularly as managers of household land and water when males migrate out for
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work. Moreover, the project has also paid particular attention to vulnerable groups
in the official poverty counties that count for about one-third of the project areas, in
order to promote inclusive institutions and increase poor farmers’ participation in
and benefit from both IAIL3 and GEF projects.
Major stakeholders of the project include: (a) National government departments,
including Ministry of Finance (MOF), National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), and Ministry of
Agriculture (MOA); (b) National and Regional research institutions and universities;
(c) Local governments; (d) The private sector; (e) Civil societies, including FAs and
WUAs; (f) Farmers and local communities.
e) MONITORING AND EVALUATION
As the GEF adaptation project is the first of its kind in China, high quality and
timely M&E will be important for identifying and resolving implementation
problems and evaluating the impacts generated by the project. It is especially
important because “learning by doing” is a critical design of the project and one of
its major objectives is to mainstream climate change adaptation into CAD. The GEF
project will include an M&E plan and system (MES) with contents which include
M&E institutions/personnel and functions, coordination/integration with the IAIL3
MES, the M&E indicator system, and reporting.
The MES for the GEF project will be coordinated and integrated with the ongoing
IAIL3 computerized MES, using key indicators specifically developed for the GEF
project (see Annex 3 of Project Brief for details on project key indicators). SOCAD,
Provincial and County Offices for Comprehensive Agricultural Development
(POCADs, COCADs) would be responsible for maintaining the project MES,
ensuring its accuracy and quality, and undertaking analysis, as needed, for
evaluation of project outputs and outcomes. Results would be provided in periodic
progress reports, which would include the agreed key outcome and output indicators
as well as financial and physical progress. These reports would be provided for
project supervision by the Bank (progress reports are discussed in Annex 4, Project
Brief).
4.
FINANCING (for all tables, expand or narrow table lines as necessary)
a) PROJECT COSTS
Project Components/Outcomes
Co-financing ($)
1. Identification/prioritization of adaptation
options
2. Demonstration/implementation of
adaptation measures
3. Mainstreaming adaptation in the national
CAD program and institutional
strengthening
4. Project management budget/cost*
Total ($)
490,100
490,100
2,234,700
52,234,700
1,786,400
1,786,400
500,000
488,800
488,800
50,000,000
5,000,000
55,000,000
49,500,000
Total project costs
GEF ($)
* This item is an aggregate cost of project management; breakdown of this aggregate amount should
be presented in the table b) below.
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B) PROJECT MANAGEMENT BUDGET/COST1
Component
Estimated
staffweeks
746-787
3-5
GEF($)
Other sources
($)
150,000
Project total
($)
333,500
12,500
Locally recruited personnel*
333,500
Internationally recruited
12,500
consultants*
Office facilities, equipment,
17,800
224,000
17,800
vehicles and communications
Travel
102,000
106,000
102,000
Miscellaneous
23,000
20,000
23,000
Total
488,800
500,000
488,800
* Local and international consultants in this table are those who are hired for functions related to the
management of project. For those consultants who are hired to do a special task, they would be referred to
as consultants providing technical assistance. For these consultants, please provide details of their services
in c) below:
C) CONSULTANTS WORKING FOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE COMPONENTS:
Component
Personnel
Local consultants
International consultants
Total
Estimated
staffweeks
GEF($)
1700-1800
25-30
Other sources
($)
906,000
70,000
976,000
Project total
($)
908,000
70,000
976,000
D) CO-FINANCING SOURCES2 (expand the table line items as necessary)
Co-financing Sources
Name of co-financier
Type
(source)
Classification
Amount ($)
Status*
government
Nat'l Gov't
in cash
31,700,000
confirmed
World Bank
Impl. Agency
in cash
18,300,000
confirmed
Sub-total co-financing
50,000,000
* Reflect the status of discussion with co-financiers. If there are any letters with expressions of interest or
commitment, please attach them.
5.
INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION AND SUPPORT
a) CORE COMMITMENTS AND LINKAGES
The proposed project is fully consistent with the World Bank’s recent China Water
Resources Assistance Strategy, which confirmed that better water resources
management was central to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. The
project can help establish a model which is very relevant to GoC’s priority of using
the Bank to help develop and explore adaptation measures to address agricultural
vulnerability in face of climate change challenges. The proposed project will
contribute to the successful implementation the Bank’s recently approved (May
2006) New Partnership Strategy for China (2006–2010), which focuses on economic
integration, poverty reduction, and sustainable development.
1
2
For all consultants hired to manage project or provide technical assistance, please attach a description in terms of their staff
weeks, roles and functions in the project, and their position titles in the organization, such as project officer, supervisor,
assistants or secretaries.
Refer to the paper on Cofinancing, GEF/C.206/Rev. 1
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The proposed project builds on lessons learned from other Bank-executed and
related activities, including the on-going project of China/GEF Integrated
Management of Haihe River Basin Water Resource and Water Environment. The
overall objective of Haihe project is to catalyze integrated approach to water
resource management and pollution control in the Haihe basin. Specifically, the
project will a) improve integrated water and environment planning and management,
b) support institutional aspects related to effective local, municipal and provincial
and basin wide water and environment planning and management, c) enhance
capacity building in water and environment knowledge management and
implementation, and d) reduce waste water discharges from small cities along rim
the Bohai sea. There is no overlap in terms of activities and geographic areas but
there are issues for which the two projects would complement each other. The two
project teams have undertaken consultations during PIF and PPG preparation.
b) CONSULTATION, COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN IAS, AND IAS
AND ExAs, IF APPROPRIATE.
This is a first adaptation project in China and is based on the World Bank supported
IAIL3 project. The Bank has a large portfolio of projects in agriculture, irrigation,
and rural development in China. The World Bank, as the Implementing Agency for
this project, has strong incentives to see how effective climate change adaptation
measures can help make China’s agriculture and irrigation more resilient to climate
variability and change. Therefore, the WB team is willing to contact other GEF IAs
active in China where needed during the project preparation and implementation.
c) PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENT
As a partially-blended project with the ongoing IAIL3 project, the GEF project will
share project management and institutional arrangements of IAIL3. Effective
institutional management arrangements for the GEF project are crucial to its success,
especially in view of the need to ensure adequate breadth of participation in
preparing and implementing this new type of project. As the executing agency for
the GEF project, SOCAD will have the overall responsibility for management,
monitoring and supervision of project implementation. As under IAIL3, MWR,
MOA, SFA and SEPA will provide technical support for GEF project
implementation according to plans. It is particularly important that the National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the lead agency for climate change
issues in China and its lower level offices, participates in project preparation and
implementation. Local CAD offices and IAIL3 PMOs at various levels will be
responsible for project implementation at the field level. The following institutional
arrangements for GEF project management have been established, in conjunction
with IAIL3.
Project Leading Groups (PLGs). On the basis of the PLGs established under IAIL3
at various levels, GEF project leading groups will be established from central down
to provincial and county government levels. These PLGs will be the same as for
IAIL3, except that special experts and scientists concerned with climate change and
adaptation may be added for GEF work. The central PLG would be chaired by the
MOF vice-minister responsible for the project and include responsible members
from MOF, NDRC, MWR, MOA, SFB, SEPA and other concerned agencies. The
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11
provincial PLGs would be chaired by the provincial vice-governor responsible for
agriculture with members being the responsible persons from the provincial Finance
Bureau, WRB, AB, EPA and other agencies and institutes as appropriate. The
Provincial Planning Commissions (PPCs) as representatives of NDRC will also
participate in the PLGs. The major responsibilities of the PLGs include coordination
and policy-level support and guidance.
Central Project Management Office (CPMO): The Central PMO (CPMO) in
SOCAD for IAIL3 would be the CPMO for the GEF project, but with
responsibilities added which are specific to the GEF project, and the CPMO would
be chaired by the Director of SOCAD. Under the leadership of PLG, CPMO will be
responsible for handling day to day management of the project at the national level,
overall project coordination, financial management and funding and funding
allocations, monitoring and reporting on project implementation, supervision and
ensuring overall project progress and quality, reporting on project implementation
progress and issues/problems.
Provincial PMOs (PPMOs): PPMOs for the IAIL3 project will be responsible for
implementation of the GEF project, similar to the national level, with specific
responsibilities and unit(s) added as needed for implementation of the GEF project.
Special units for the GEF project have been established within the existing PPMOs
in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Ningxia, with terms of reference,
staffing and other resources agreeable to the Bank. GEF units in the PPMOs would
include senior-level, expert staff from the Water Resources Bureau (WRB),
Agricultural Bureau (AB), and Forestry Bureau (FRB).
Local Level Project Management Offices (PMOs). Similarly, local level
(municipality and/or county) PMOs at lower levels for IAIL3 will be responsible for
implementation of the GEF project, but will have specific responsibilities and units
added as needed for implementation of the GEF project.
Mobile Expert Teams (METs): METS have been established under IAIL3 by
SOCAD and the POCADs. For the GEF project, these METs would be strengthened
and expanded with suitable experts to provide guidance on climate change
adaptation to staff and farmers in the field during implementation. The GEF METs
should include experienced experts from the fields concerned, such as water
conservancy, agriculture, forestry, meteorology, and environment. In addition, the
METs for the GEF project should be expanded to include some of the leading
scientists in the climate change adaptation field in China.
Participation of farmers in project preparation and implementation. The planned
further strengthening and expansion of Water Users' Associations (WUAs) and
Farmers' Associations (FAs) as the farmers’ own organizations has been included in
the proposed GEF adaptation project. Their participation is ensured in all the above
mentioned five levels of project implementation arrangement. This will also be
another measure to reduce project risks as farmers will be direct beneficiaries of the
project and play an important role in decision-making process in view of reducing
their vulnerability. Please see details in Stakeholder Involvement.
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12
ANNEX A: ADDITIONAL COST ANALYSIS
I. Overview
1. The project development objective is to enhance the resilience of agricultural and water
development to climate change in the 3H Basin through: (a) selecting, developing,
implementing and promoting adoption of selected climate change adaptation measures and
techniques by main stakeholders at selected demonstration areas in the 3H Basin; and (b)
mainstreaming and incorporating such demonstrated adaptation measures into the national
CAD program.
2. The main project development impact indicators would be: (i) increased water and
agricultural productivity (kg/m3); (ii) improved irrigation efficiency (%); (iii) relevant CC
adaptation measures/techniques implemented in selected demonstrated areas (ha) by the broad
stakeholders participation (number of farm households) at selected sites; and (iv) policies,
mechanisms and instruments for adaptation to climate change formulated and integrated into
the national CAD operation system.
3. The project will provide additional and gap filling support to existing and planned
(baseline) provincial and local activities related to sustainable development of modern irrigated
agriculture in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces of the Huang-Huai-Hai
river plain (3H Basin), which is China's most vital agricultural region. Activities in the five
Project Provinces are part of the ongoing IAIL3 Project, while a sixth – Ningxi Autonomous
Region – has been recently added to IAIL3 as a “Participating Province” for WUA
development. The proposed project is also important to CAD in general for "best practice"
demonstration purposes, as about 85% of CAD’s investments target water saving irrigation, onfarm infrastructure, and agriculture and water management which is closely related to and
affected by climate change.
4. China has documented and described various phenomena showing its vulnerability to
climate change in different regions and provinces, especially given its vast geographic area and
widely varying climate conditions. For example, China’s initial national communication states:
“There has been a continuous drought in the North China Plain since the 1980s, while flooding
disasters have happened more frequently in southern China; these natural disasters have been
more pronounced during and after the 1990s; global warming would speed up plant growth and
shorten the crop-growing period, so would affect the accumulation of dry biomass and grain
yield.”
5. For the purposes of the proposed GEF project, vulnerabilities to climate change in the
North China Plain can be summarized as follows:
(a) Water availability, as indicated by projections of river run-offs etc., (according to the
Assessment Report of Climate Change in 3H Basin done by the Chinese Academy of
Science, see section IV. B. of the PAD) is likely to decrease significantly in the future.
Water scarcity threatens both rural income growth and food security. China is among the
bottom 25 percent of countries globally in terms of water availability per capita, and in the
3H Basin area it is only about one-third of the national average per capita water and about
half the standard specified by the United Nations as necessary for maintaining
socioeconomic and environmental development. At the same time, the 3H Basin is
China’s prime agricultural area and breadbasket, producing some 50 percent of national
grain output, and about 35 percent of national industrial output. Because of this, water
demand in the region is already high and growing rapidly, and available water resources
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13
generally are fully allocated and often overexploited, especially groundwater. Moreover,
in many locations, increasing water pollution and water quality degradation is
exacerbating water shortage problems, while the projected climate changes could further
decrease water stream flows and groundwater recharge in the Basin.
(b) Decreased grain production. It has been shown recently that grain production has
been stagnant for a number of consecutive years in the 3H Basin area due in part to
climate variability. Given the current global warming trend, China’s irrigation-based
agriculture in this basin is likely to be further negatively affected by climate change, and
remedial measures need to be taken to ameliorate these effects. Action is needed quickly
because it takes time for such remedial measures to have a significant impact.
(c) Climate change may offset IAIL3/CAD benefits and poverty reduction. The above
issues and their relationship to climate change are only recently becoming clear and their
seriousness understood. In fact, past and current interventions generally have not
considered and addressed climate change and how to adapt to it. This is the case, for
example, with the country’s national CAD Program and the Bank-supported IAIL3
referred to above. IAIL3 needs to be strengthened to include measures for adaptation to
climate change; if not, the expected benefits from IAIL3 (and from CAD in general) could
be substantially offset by the negative impacts of climate change.
II. Broad Development Goals and the Baseline
Development Goals
6. China has signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, and joined the Convention on Biological Diversity and
the United Nations Convention on Drought and Desertification. Recently, China has
developed a strong policy and strategic framework to support climate change adaptation, and
has set out several national environment and sustainable development policies, strategies, and
programs, all of which now identify adaptation to climate change as a national priority. The
main thrusts of these programs relate primarily to China’s Initial National Communication on
Climate Change, National Strategy for Climate Change, New Environmental Protection
Standards, National Comprehensive Agricultural Development Program (CAD), and World
Bank supported IAIL3. More recently (June 11, 2007), China has promulgated a National
Climate Change Program which took two years to prepare, documents the country’s efforts
made to tackle climate change issues, analyses future climate change challenges for China,
and also describes China’s policies and positions on international cooperation. The program
both elaborates on China’s own initiatives and also vows to continue support for international
cooperation dealing with climate change issues.
Baseline Scenario
7. The overall development objectives of the baseline project (IAIL3) are to: increase water
and agricultural productivity in low and medium yield farm land areas; raise farmers’ income
and strengthen their competitive capacity under post-WTO conditions; and demonstrate and
promote sustainable participatory rural water resources and agro-ecological environmental
management in the 3-H Basin. The project is consistent with the Bank’s assistance to China in
the rural sector which is focused on reducing current trends of inequality between urban and
rural areas, and on facilitating the shift from subsistence to commercial agriculture and from
quantity to quality of production. It is also consistent with the Bank’s recent China Water
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Resources Assistance Strategy, which confirmed that better water resources management,
through both broad-based and targeted interventions, was central to sustainable growth and
poverty reduction. IAIL3 also supports a range of related national and domestic policies
aimed at sustainable rural development, in particular, increasing farmers’ incomes, reducing
poverty, promoting more efficient, sustainable agricultural production and competitiveness,
and meeting WTO and international market requirements.
8. IAIL3 finances sustainable development of modern irrigated agriculture in 107 counties in
32 prefectures/cities in five provinces in the 3H Basin -- Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and
Shandong through five components: (a) Comprehensive Water-saving Irrigation and Drainage
(US$316.14 million); (b) Agricultural Modernization and Organization Development
(US$65.47 million); (c) Agro-ecological Environmental Protection and Management
(US$24.46 million); (d) Institutional Development and Support (US$33.78 million); and (e)
Project Survey, Design and Management (US$23.33 million). The investment cost of IAIL3
totals $463 million.
9. The main project outcomes of the baseline scenario would be: (a) increased water and
agricultural productivity and resource use efficiency; (b) increased per capita income for farm
households; (c) increased high quality/value and non-polluting/green crop production; (d)
adoption of techniques leading to “real” water savings and mitigation of adverse
environmental impacts; and (e) establishment of institutional mechanisms for enhanced
farmer involvement and participation.
Summary of the IAIL3 “Adaptation Gap Analysis”
10. Even though the key components IAIL3 are highly relevant to and affected by climate
change, and some project contents such as water saving irrigation have reflected a rationale
similar to climate change adaptation, the overall project design of IAIL3 did not
systematically identify and integrate measures for adaptation to climate change. A number of
specific weaknesses in IAIL3 were identified and summarized in the GEF Project
Implementation Plan (PIP), including:
(a) The public’s awareness of issues relating to adaptation to climate change is very weak,
and so is the understanding and capacity of decision-makers and administrators regarding
climate change and adaptation.
(b) In the design of water saving works, the concept of collecting and storing natural
precipitation was not integrated with irrigation and drainage works, and there are few if
any works and facilities in the field to collect and store rainfall runoff, so that available
rainfall can be used most effectively;
(c) Some agricultural measures for climate change adaptation have not been fully
considered, such as planting nitrogen fixation crops, adjusting sowing times of double
cropped areas, staggered maturity of crops to reduce peak water demand, and the
development of agriculture facilities such as greenhouses;
(d) Farmer associations and cooperative organizations are weak and have only limited
ability to popularize new varieties, practices and technologies which are more adapted to
climate change;
(e) Although farmer water user associations are included in IAIL3, their coverage is
limited and they lack focus, activities or support on adaptive water management;
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(f) Development of water and soil conservation forestry was not considered, and hence
soil erosion by wind and water are not effectively controlled and tree species adapted to
climate change have not been selected; and
(g) Insufficient consideration was given to biogas activities under the project, although
biogas is an important measure in adapting to climate and opens opening up a new rural
energy resource, develops recycling and supports agricultural sustainability.
III. Alternative (GEF Project Enhancement of IAIL3)
11. The proposed GEF climate change adaptation project will support baseline development
goals included in IAIL3 (and the national CAD program). In addition, it will increase the
sustainability of IAIL3 and the resilience of Chinese irrigated agriculture in the face of
climate change and support global environmental objectives. The proposed project would,
among other things, identify gaps in the IAIL3 project design with regard to needed
adaptation measures and help integrate adaptation measures in its main components.
Specifically it will focus on those IAIL3 activities (which did not consider climate change in
its design) that are identified as being at risk from climate change. The scientific analysis and
modeling would be applied in the design of these components leading to more climate
resilient outcomes (sometimes referred to as “climate proofing”). The proposed GEF project
will review and refine the original IAIL3 technical design for all adaptation-related activities,
and adjust the IAIL3 Project Implementation Plan to respond to the effects of both short term
climate variability as well as long term change in each region. The proposed GEF project
would be designed to partially blend with IAIL3. Of the $463 million total cost of IAIL3, an
estimated $50 million would be used as co-financing for the proposed GEF project. Major
expected additional outputs of the proposed project include:
(a) Identification/Prioritization of Adaptation Options. Climate change adaptation is a
complex development activity and involves making adjustments in economic, social and
ecological systems in response to climatic change. It is essential to understand what
should be done in different places over different time periods to facilitate adaptation. To
facilitate such understanding, several studies will be carried out and will include: (i)
stocktaking of previous studies on assessment of climate change vulnerability and
potential adaptation options; (ii) using simulation models and observations (time series
hydrology data) to assess climate change scenarios and impacts on local hydrology; (iii)
estimation of the sensitivity of 3H Basin agriculture to climate and water availability; and
(vi) survey and analyses of farm households in project area and 3H Basin to determine
climate sensitivity, water demand, and adaptation response and the effectiveness of
household and community level adaptation options in the face of projected climate
change. The work would integrate all the relevant climatological, hydrological, and
economic aspects. The analyses would capture both climate change impact and
adaptations: (i) in agriculture and irrigation (climate sensitivity); and (ii) in water
resources management (at the river basin level). The use of these state-of-the-art
modeling techniques to integrate climate, hydrology and agricultural economics over key
spatial and time scales is an important and essential innovation under the proposed
project. The outcomes of these studies will not only contribute to adaptation measures
selection, but will also provide valuable experiences to other regions of China and to other
countries, and contribute to the global understanding of climate change adaptation options
and challenges.
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(b) Demonstration and implementation of adaptation measures. Since the proposed
GEF project is using gap filling and programmatic approach, the adaptation measures will
modify relevant IAIL 3 supported activities and help farmers strengthen their resilience in
face of existing climate variability and long-term climate change. During the PPG process,
Chinese stakeholders (decision-makers, scientists, and farmers) agreed on two categories
of adaptation measures aiming to: (i) demonstrate, and implement the specific adaptation
measures in selected demonstration areas; and (ii) integrate and expand appropriate
adaptation measures into IAIL3 project implementation (see the details in GEF project
component 2 below). From this pro-active adaptation mindset, adaptation measures would
embrace a much broader scope of activities. Also, the adaptation preparation efforts and
adaptation lessons would help promote the urgently needed transition from a conventional
development approach into a more sustainable development path.
(c) Mainstreaming adaptation into the national CAD program and institutional
strengthening. The component would aim at integrating climate change adaptation into
the national CAD program. Given CAD’s limited experience and capacity with this new
issue, a series of capacity building, technical assistance, knowledge sharing, and public
awareness activities would be needed. Based in part on experience with adaptation
activities under IAIL3, a “national climate change adaptation plan” for CAD would be
prepared under the leadership of SOCAD, with the close cooperation of NDRC’s and
MOF’s national climate change adaptation offices.
12. As a result of the above project activities, both farmers and the agricultural system in
Northern China would become more adaptive and resilient to short-term climate change
variability and long-term climate change; and adaptation to climate change consideration and
measures would be integrated into the national rural development process through CAD
program.
13. Overall, the logical framework that has been followed for the general design of the project
and the identification and sequencing of the project components can be summarized in the
diagram below:
GEF SCCF
Grant
Analytic work on
impacts of
climate change
Further assessment and refine the
design and implementation of IAIL3
mainly dealing with water conservation
New adaptive
actions (e.g., crop
selection planting
strategies)
Leading to a more
“climate proof”
design
Demonstrations
Replication/National
CAD Program
Scope of the Analysis
14. The scope of the proposed GEF project will mainly cover the IAIL3 project area, in
particular under Component 2. It will cover the five Project Provinces of IAIL3 (Hebei,
Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shangdong) and Ningxia Autonomous Region. The latter was
selected mainly because it represents an arid climate, typical of the provinces of north-western
China, and because it has been added to IAIL3 as a Paricipating Province for WUA
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development. Within these provinces, project activities will be concentrated in the selected 10
demonstration countries, listed in the table below:
Table of demonstration sites
Province
Hebei
City
Cangzhou
Xuzhou
Suqian
Bengbu
Chuzhou
Weifang
Liaocheng
Nanyang
County
Cangxian
Xionyi
Suyu
Huaiyun
Mingguang
Gaomi
Yanggu
Wancheng
Shangqiu
Liangyuan
Ningxia
Wuzhong
Tongxin
Total
10
10
Jiangsu
Anhui
Shandong
Henan
Irrigation command or regional type
Well plus canal
River diversion
River diversion
Well
Reservoir
Well
The Yellow River diversion
Reservoir
The Yellow River Diversion for supplementing
irrigation water source
The Yellow River diversion Arid and land
degradation
15. As CAD is a national program, some of the proposed activities under Component 1 and
more-so Component 3 are expected to be implemented outside these six provinces. For
example, development of adaptation policy and plans within CAD, mainstreaming adaptation
into CAD, and the proposed replication of good practice adaptation measures would be of
value to many other regions and provinces in China.
Additional Costs under the GEF Project for adaptation to climate change in IAIL3
16. As indicated above, the proposed GEF project is designed as a gap filling and
comprehensive approach to enhance IAIL3 which did not take adaptation to climate change
into consideration in its original design and implementation plan; and through IAIL3, as a
demonstration for the national CAD and the national rural development program. This
enhancement is necessitated mainly because climate change and its relationship with
agriculture are only now becoming clear and its seriousness understood.
17. Baseline costs (US$50 million) were identified with SOCAD/POCADs based on the
existing IAIL3 Investment and Implementation Plan, selecting specific water-saving
components and activities that will be affected by climate change and addressed by the project
as described in Para. (b) in Component 2 (see also the table attached below). Total
expenditures associated with the GEF Alternative Scenario are estimated to be US$55 million
(including a US$5 million grant from GEF/SCCF) to carry out the components as described
below:
18. Component 1: Identification and Prioritization of Adaptation Options (US$0.491
million). Specific activities include: (a) Impact assessment of climate change in the 3H
Basin and project area (for details see Para. 10 in Section III, above); and (b) Prioritization
and selection of adaptation measures and demonstration areas. The activities in this subcomponent would include: (i) conducting a gap analysis of IAIL3 to identify adaptation
measures and plan their implementation; (ii) identification and selection of adaptation
demonstration areas, which would be in accordance with well defined selection criteria.
Priority will be given to areas where there is both high vulnerability and a high likelihood of
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making significant impacts in terms of strengthening resilience to climate change; and (iii) use
of the above models and scientific technical analysis to select and refine adaptation options in
content, implementation, cost, and impact for each project demonstration area and province.
19. Component 2: Demonstration and implementation of adaptation measures (US$5.1734
million). Based on the above gap analysis and scientific studies the following activities would
be designed and carried out in consultation with the concerned stakeholders:
(a) Introduce, demonstrate, and implement specific adaptation measures in selected
demonstration areas (focusing on agricultural production and rural water management
and utilization in taking into account temperature increase). The selected specific new
activities (added to IAIL3 activities) would include: (i) explore/develop alternative water
resources based on each sub-region’s conditions, including the development of
catchments (natural and artificial ponds) to enhance rainfall storage capacity and reduce
water logging threats in the alluvion plain, well-based irrigation with reinforced
prevention and resistance to drought in Huang-Hai plain, and advanced field water-saving
irrigation technologies and works, etc.; (ii) promote adaptation-oriented farming
practices, such as adjustment of agricultural farming pattern to reduce water consumption
in agricultural production (proportion of wheat-rice, wheat-rape and other crop would be
suitably adjusted based on the climate change tendency) and combining drainage with
irrigation to avoid the soil deterioration in Huang-Hai plain; adaptive crop varieties; (iii)
adopt water saving oriented farming technologies and management, such as dry seeding
technology, shallow humidity and aridity control irrigation, precision irrigation and land
shaping, development of drought resistant varieties, membrane and biological water
conservation, to deal with water scarcity, land and eco-system rehabilitation and
amelioration; and (iv) expand farmer participation through water user associations and
farmer associations and cooperatives to promote adaptive water management and farmer
practices and spread understanding of climate change and adaptation. The identified
innovative adaptation activities would be implemented and tested in selected
demonstration areas, and the successful good practices and lessons learned and developed
would be supported, expanded and promoted where appropriate throughout the IAIL3
project areas.
(b) Integrate and expand appropriate adaptation measures into IAIL3 project
implementation. This component will refine and enhance the original IAIL3 technical
design to achieve more climate resilient outcomes. All identified IAIL3 activities related
to adaptation measures would be supported and expanded as appropriate. These include
the following IAIL3 sub-components: (i) engineering water-saving measures, including
various water-saving irrigation and drainage technologies and facilities; (ii) agronomic
water-saving measures, including laser land leveling, deep plowing, balanced fertilizer
use, recycling of crop residues, introduction of improved quality seeds, on-farm forestry
belts and restoration of riparian zones, etc.; and (iii) water-saving management measures,
including development of farmer water user association and farmer professional
cooperatives, installation of water measuring facilities and equipment, and preparation and
implementation of groundwater management plans in water-short counties in Hebei
project areas, and pilot crop evapo-transpiration (ET) monitoring and management
programs.
20. Component 3: Mainstreaming adaptation in the national Comprehensive Agricultural
Development (CAD) program (US$2.775 million). The main activities under this component
would include: (a) development of the national CAD climate change adaptation policy and
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replication/implementation plan; (b) capacity building including training/workshops, technical
assistance, study tours, and information dissemination; (c) establishment and operation of a
results-based monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system and a management information
system (MIS) focusing on adaptation measures. Adaptation M&E would be linked to and
coordinated with (and may be added on to) the comprehensive M&E system of IAIL3 and
will be designed to regularly assess the effectiveness of adaptation implementation
mechanisms and measures; and (d) project management and institutional coordination, and in
particular development of mechanisms to promote and support cooperative work on
adaptation between MOF, NDRC, and SOCAD.
21. The GEF alternative incorporates both the baseline costs of the IAIL3 plan and activities
necessary to deliver the baseline benefits, and the additional costs of activities required to
adjust IAIL3 to achieve the targeted benefits from reducing or preventing expected climate
change impacts. Additional costs are calculated as the difference between baseline costs and
the GEF alternative, implying that all the proposed project activities and costs are additional
to the baseline scenario. For the proposed project would cover two types of additional costs:
(a) gap filling costs, including the additional costs for Component 1 (identification and
prioritization of adaptation options) and Component 3 (mainstreaming adaptation in the
national CAD program and institutional strengthening); and (b) costs to refine and enhance
IAIL3 activities, which mainly relate to Component 2. The following detailed GEF costs
which are additional to IAIL3 are estimated for each component at:
(a) GEF US$490,100 for Component 1;
(b) GEF US$2,234,700 for Component 2, demonstration and implementation of
adaptation measures, which will basically reorient and enhance the original IAIL3
activities based on the outcomes of the gap analyses. The baseline costs for these proposed
activities as included in IAIL3 are US$50,000,000. The proposed GEF additional costs of
US$2,234,700 will be used mainly to enhance IAIL3 activities by implementing
adaptation measures such as:
(i)
Rainfall collection works;
(ii) Adaptive technology application (dry seeding technology, shallow humidity and
aridity control irrigation, precision irrigation);
(iii) Adaptive crop varieties utilization;
(iv) Adaptive irrigation and drainage facilities design;
(v) Adaptive irrigation management, especially through Water User Associations;
(vi) Biogas utilization;
(vii) Greenhouse development;
(viii)Dissemination of adaptation measures through Farmer Associations and farmer
specialised cooperative organizations;
(ix) Adaptive afforesation;
(x) Groundwater management plans and ET monitoring;
(xi) Adaptive laser land leveling, and land shaping for water harevesting; and
(xii) An M&E system to monitor implementation and analyze impacts.
(c) GEF US$2,275,200 for Component 3.
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20
Summary
22. The difference between the cost of the baseline scenario (US$50.0 million) and the cost of
the GEF alternative (US$55.0 million) is estimated at US$5.0 million. This represents the
additional cost of meeting the expected global climate change impacts. For details see the
table below:
Estimated Additional Costs and Proposed GEF financing
(Figures in US$ thousand)
Components and activities
Baseline
GEF
alternative
1. Identification/prioritization of adaptation options
1.1 Impact assessment of
climate change
Stocktaking of previous
30.0
studies on
vulnerability/potential
adaptation options
Fine-tuning of existing
74.6
hydrology/agriculture
models
Farmer household analysis
50.0
on sensitivity to CC in
project area
Assessment of sensitivity of
70.0
3H basin agriculture to CC
and water availability
1.2 Prioritization and
selection of adaptation
measures and demonstration
areas
Gap analysis of IAIL3 to
70.0
prepare adaptation measures
and implementation plan
Identification and selection
45.0
of demonstration areas
Refine adaptation options
150.5
based on scientific analysis
490.13
Sub-total
2. Demonstration/implementation of adaptation measures
2.1 Introduce/demonstrate/
implement specific
adaptation measures in
demonstration areas
Explore alternative/adaptive
339.6
water resources
Promote adaption-oriented
315.2
farming practices
Adaption-oriented water
312.3
saving farming technologies
Small-scale biogas facilities
503.9
2.2 Integrate/expand
adaptation measures into
IAIL3 Project
Engineering water-saving
35964.6
35964.6
measures
Adaptive agronomic water8477.1
8878.4
saving measures
Adaptive irrigation
5058.3
5420.7
management water-saving
measures
Sub-total
49500.0
51734.7
Additional
cost
30.0
74.6
50.0
70.0
70.0
Adaptation Benefits
Having a better understanding of vulnerability to
climate change and potential adaptation options
through stocktaking of existing studies.
Potential adaptation options (including content,
implementation, costs, and impacts), and climate
change scenarios’ impacts on surface and ground water
fluxes and flood/drought predictions and risks will
provide a better basis for decision making.
The outcomes of estimates of the sensitivity of 3H
Basin agriculture to variations in climate and water
availability, economic analysis of climate change
impacts, risks and costs, and benefits of various
adaptation measures will help 3H area better plan the
use of scare water resources and thus help 3H become
more resilient to climate variability.
Expansion of the range of experiences with adaptation;
and refinement of the use of state-of-the-art models for
estimating climate change impacts and identifiying
adaptation options.
45.0
150.5
490.1
339.6
315.2
312.3
503.9
Through developing and testing comprehensive and
integrated adaptation measures and pproaches, the
GEF project will strengthen IAIL3 project by:
improving effectiveness in water management and
saving; increasing resilience of farmers to climate
variation; strengthening farmer participation through
WUAs and FAs; promoting use of cleaner energy
(biogas); conserving forests/wood; and stabilizing the
income of poor farmers.
Providing good practice and enriching experience of
adaptation measures in agriculture; improved
effectiveness/efficiency of scarce water resources use;
reduced GHG emission by use of biogas; increased
GHG sinks from afforestation; and reduced cutting of
trees due to biogas.
401.3
362.4
2234.7
3
The activities under Component 1 were started during preparation and have been partly financed by PPG grant
and domestic budget during the project preparation.
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
21
Components and activities
Baseline
GEF
alternative
3. Mainstreaming adaptation into CAD program
Develop CAD adaptation
33.4
policy/replication plan
Capacity building on
1505
adaptation
knowledge/informaton
dissemination
M&E system
248.1
development/operation
Project management and
500.0
988.7
coordination between
MOF/NDRC/SOCAD
Sub-total
2775.2
Total project
50000.0
55000.0
Additional
cost
33.4
1505
Adaptation Benefits
The GEF project will improve the effectiveness of the
CAD Program; improved institutional coordination
and capacity of relevant agencies at national,
provincial and local levels; improved knowledge and
public awareness on climate change and adaptation to
climate change; improved capacity of M&E system.
248.1
Better coordination among major agencies (MOF,
NDRC, and SOCAD) to support adaptation.
488.7
Valuable practice to other countries.
2275.2
5000.0
Summary of co-financing
Financing Sources
Amount (US$ thousand)
World Bank
18,300.0
18, 300.0
National,and provincial and local
governments and farmer
Contributions (in-kind and cash)
31,700.0
31,700.0
GEF
5, 000.0
5, 000.0
Total with Additional Cost (not including PPG
of US$ 316,000 for preparation)
55, 000.0
Additional Costs and Adaptation benefits
23. The additional financing of US$5 million from the GEF-managed SCCF for the China
Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Water Resources Management and Rural
Development Project will serve as a catalyst to integrate climate change adaptation into
China’s national sustainable development and poverty reduction strategy. This project is
expected to have two main possible outcomes. One outcome is the increased awareness by
farmers and policy makers. The other is the expected economic and financial benefit from
adaptation to both climate variability and long term climate change. Awareness and
adaptation measures under the project would improve agricultural productivity and water
resource management (compared to a “non-adaptation” scenario where agriculture and
water would be adversely impacted by climatic change patterns). The additional resources
from SCCF would be used, inter alia, to finance: (a) capacity building at the national level in
view diversifying agricultural practices; (b) utilization of water saving and environmental
friendly technologies, techniques and management; (c) demonstration of adaptation measures
for rural development based on China’s special circumstances; (d) filing adaptation gaps in
the ongoing Bank-supported IAIL3 project and the national CAD program; (e) mainstreaming
adaptation to climate change into CAD; and (f) replicating and scaling- up adaptation
measures which prove successful. All these activities have a great potential for integration
into China’s national strategy for sustainable development and poverty reduction.
24. The GEF financing will generate additional domestic development benefits. For example,
the proposed project is expected to further strengthen environmental and social impacts by
bringing in a new concept of risk management, new standards in irrigation infrastructure and
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
22
management, and the use of natural resilience (land, water, forests) to moderate extreme
weather conditions. The project activities would also contribute to poverty reduction by
making poor farmers less vulnerable to climate changes by teaching them new technologies
and techniques to better use and manage land, water and other natural resources. Improved
water works and water management would help them to deal more effectively with both
droughts and floods, and drought and water-stress resistant crops would be better able to
withstand both short-term droughts and changes in climate patterns.
25. Besides the above-mentioned national, social, economic, and environmental benefits,
additional adaptation benefits would be generated, including reduced emission of greenhouse
gasses from use of biogas; increased greenhouse gas sinks because of afforestation; and
reduced cutting of trees for firewood by providing biogas. This project will also contribute to
the expansion of experiences with adaptation to improve global understanding of the
challenges brought on by climate change, and demonstrate how a comprehensive approach to
deal with climate change adaptation and mind-set change could strengthen the resilience of
farmers in dealing with climate change, and it would serve as an opportunity to reconsider and
change current unsustainable development patterns in favor of long term sustainability.
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
23
ANNEX B: PROJECT LOGICAL FRAMEWORK
Results Framework
Project Development Objectives
(GEF SCCF)
The project objective is to
enhance the resilience of
agricultural and water resources
development to climate change
in 3 H-Basin.
Outcome Indicators
(i) Increased water and agricultural
productivity (kg/m3);
(ii) Improved irrigation efficiency (%);
(iii) Relevant CC adaptation
measures/techniques implemented in selected
demonstrated area (ha) by the broad
stakeholds participation (number of farm
households) at selected sites; and
(iv) policies, mechanisms and
instruments for adaptation to climate
change formulated and integrated into the
national CAD operation system.
(Above indicators would be studied in
detail and finalized during project
appraisal.)
Intermediate Outcomes
Component 1. Identification(i)and
prioritization of adaptation
options and demonstration areas.
Results and its lessons learned will serve as
basis for the development of the national
adaptation policy in SOCAD to guide
government interventions at each level to
mitigate, reduce, avoid and cope with the
negative impacts of climate change, and to
identify potential benefits and strategies to
use those conditions to further agricultural
and water resources developmental issues,
and also mainstreaming CC issues in
SOCAD’s planning processes.
Information will be used to disseminate and
replicate CC adaptation concept and
implementation measures in China’s
agricultural and rural water management
sectors, and elsewhere in the world.
Progress on each of these indicators will be
collected and assessed to see if the project is
having the intended impact. If not,
adjustment will be made to project activities
so as to achieve the desired impacts.
Use of Intermediate Outcome
Monitoring
(i) Stocktaking of previous studies and
technical analysis on assessment of existing
vulnerability and adaptation efforts prepared.
The document will include existing data on
land and water use based on the basin-scale
hydrology and meteorology in a quantitative
baseline framework;
The outcomes under this component will
serve as a basis for:
(iii) Climate change scenarios incorporated
into national CAD adaptation program and
create awareness on decision makers; and
(i) Impact assessment of
vulnerability and adaptation
efforts to climate change in 3-H
Basin and project area; and
(ii) Climate change scenarios/impacts
identified for 3-H Basin/sub-project areas and
pilot areas through testing and adapting
existing hydrology and agricultural
production models to be dynamic and
responsive to climate and resulting changing
land cover-land use (including cropping
patters);
(ii)
(ii) Prioritization and selection
of adaptation measures and
demonstration areas.
(iii) Estimating the sensitivity of 3H Basin
(and sub-project areas) agriculture to climate
and water availability;
Complete the assessment of
vulnerabilities to climate change
and CC impact/scenarios to
identify, select, and develop the
responsive adaptation options(ii)
and
specific measures in selected
denmonstration areas through:
(i)
Intermediate Outcome
Indicators
Use of Results Information
(iv) Conducting a farm household
analysis in the project area to determine
climate sensitivity, rural water demand,
and adaptation responses;
(v)
(v) The project demonstration areas identified
based on selection criterias.;
(vi) The menu of possible adaptation
measures developed, based on scientific
analysis and stakeholders’ participation.
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
24
(i) A menu of possible adaptation options
identified for demonstration component;
(ii) collect baseline information to monitor
results and other M&E activities;
(iv) Methodologies shared with
international scientific global community.
(i)
Component two: Demonstration
and implementation of
adaptation measures
(i) A CC Adaptation Implementation Plan
prepared for each specific demonstration area
after consultation with the beneficiaries;
To respond to actual or expected
both short term climate variability
and long term change and their
effects or impacts in each specific
region and the 3H Basin through:
(ii) Specific adaptation measures and
approaches developed and implemented for
testing in the demonstration Areas;
(i) introduce, demonstrate, and
implement the specific adaptation
measures in selected demonstration
areas; and
(iii) The specific indicators for detailed
adaptation measures are monitored through the
partially blended IAIL3 project, mainly
including the following aspects:
(ii) integrate and expand
appropriate adaptation measures
into IAIL3 project implementation.
The outcomes of demonstration and
implementation will help confirm whether:
(i) the site selection meets the expected
results;
(ii) adaptation measures (including
institutional building and training) fit the
demonstration sites;
(iii) exchange experiences among the
demonstration areas;
(a) explore/develop alternative water
resources based on each sub-region’s
conditions;
(iv) adjustment and improvement;
(b) promote adaptation-oriented farming
practices;
(vi) successful demonstration will help
speed up adaptation mainstreaming into
agricultural development planning in China.
(c) water saving oriented farming
technologies;
(v) Plan on how best to scale up successful
adaptation measures; and
(d) promote adaptation-oriented irrigation
and drainage design and management, and
(e) pilot small-scale biogas facilities;
(iv) IAIL3 technical design and
Implementation Plan would be reviewed and
refined for all adaptation-related activities to
respond to actual or expected climate changes
and their effects or impact in each subproject
area; and
(v) A mechanism to monitor and review the
implementation, which includes interaction
with the overall project adaptation framework
is in operation.
Component 3: Mainstreaming
adaptation in the national
Comprehensive Agricultural
Development (CAD) program
and institutional strengthening
The component would aim at
integrating and mainstreaming
climate change adaptation into the
national CAD program with
institutional capacity building.
(i) Adaptation policy and design gaps in CAD
program and countermeasures identifed, and
adaptation concept and approach are
integrated in the national CAD program;
(ii) preparation and development of the
national CAD climate change adaptation
policy and replication/implementation plan;
(iii) Capacity building on climate change and
adaptation knowledge and information
dissemination strategy prepared and
implemented. The specific indicators include:
(a) coverage of climate change adaptation
by the media, web page,
workshops/training plans, and technical
assistance programs;
(b) Climate Change Adaptation Monitoring
and Evaluation mechanism in operation
(c) Guidelines prepared on effective
adaptation measures and policy
interventions; and
(iv) A national coordination mechanism for
climate change adaptation established within
SOCAD, POCADs and COCADs.
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
25
The integration of adaptation into CAD
program will be used as an intrument to
achieve policy change, promote
understanding and implement the adaptation
integration process.
Results of gap analysis of CAD program
and IAIL3 will provide good basis to
integrate adaptation into China’s major
agricultural development programs,
together with institutional and knowledge
building, as well as experiences and lessons
learnt from demonstration sites.
Arrangements for results monitoring (to be determined during the appraisal)
Data Collection and Reporting
Baseline
Project Outcome Indicators
Increased water and agricultural productivity (kg/m3)
Improved irrigation efficiency
Adaptation measures/techniques implemented in selected demonstrated areas
Farmers participation in selected demonstration areas
Policies, mechanisms and instruments for adaptation to climate change formulated and integrated into the
national CAD operation system
Intermediate Results Indicators for Each Component
Component 1. Identification/prioritization of adaptation options/demonstration areas
assessment of existing vulnerability and adaptation efforts prepared
Climate change scenarios impacts identified through scientific analysis (outcome of VIC/DHSVM data
available)
Estimate the sensitivity of 3H Basin (and sub-project areas) agriculture to climate and water availability
Conducting a farm household analysis and survey in the project area to determine climate sensitivity, rural
water demand, and adaptation responses, also for community awareness on CC
a gap analysis of IAIL3 from a climate change perspective completed
Adaptation options identified
Project demonstration areas idetified based on the selection criterias
%
h
a
N
o
YR1
YR2
YR3
YR4
1.06
60%
1.10
60%
1.25
65%
1.30
70%
1.39
75%
0
5,000
8,000
12,000
0
15,000
32,000
56,000
16,380
70,500
%
No adaptation policy in
CAD
%
No existing activities
100%
100%
%
No existing activities
100%
100%
%
No existing activities
60%
%
No existing activities
100%
100%
%
%
%
No existing activities
No existing activities
No existing activities
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
%
No existing activities
100%
100%
Specific adaptation measures and approaches developed, implemented and tested in demonstration Areas
%
No existing activities
20%
50%
80%
100%
A mechanism to monitor and review the implementation, which includes interaction with the overall
project adaptation framework is in operation
Specific adaptation measures implemented (detailed indicators monitored through IAIL3 project )
IAIL3 technical design and Implementation Plan would be reviewed and refined for all adaptation-related
activities in each subproject area;
A mechanism to monitor and review the implementation, which includes interaction with the overall
project adaptation framework is in operation
%
No existing activities
20%
50%
80%
100%
%
IAIL3 baseline
20%
50%
80%
100%
%
IAIL3 baseline
60%
100%
%
IAIL3 baseline
70%
100%
100%
100%
apacity building on climate change and adaptation knowledge and information dissemination strategy
prepared and implemented
Climate Change Adaptation Monitoring and Evaluation mechanism in operation
A national coordination mechanism for climate change adaptation established within SOCAD, POCADs
and COCADs
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
%
.
No existing activities
60%
100%
%
No existing activities
70%
100%
%
No existing activities
20%
50%
80$
100%
%
No existing activities
80%
100%
100%
100%
%
No existing activities
26
Responsibility
for Data Collection
Semi-annual progress
reports and
Annual M&E Report
Date in project
MIS/MES system
with field survey
SOCAD/
POCADs/COCADs
Scientific Analysis
Reports
from Chinese
Academy of science
and Provincial
experts
Economic sensitivity
analysis reports for
farm household and
Hai River Basin
Semi-annual progress
reports and
Annual M&E Report
70%
100%
Database established
by Scientist team in
Chinese Academy of
Science, and in
project MES system
with field farm
households survey
Project implement
tation record (data in
project MIS system)
Survey & assessment
done by COCADs
and POCADs
100%
Component 3. Mainstreaming adaptation in the national Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) program and institutional strengthening
Adaptation policy and design gaps in CAD program and countermeasures identifed, ans adaptation
concept and approach are integrated in the national
preparation and development of the national CAD climate change adaptation policy and
replication/implementation plan
Data Collection
Instruments
100%
Component 2. Demonstration and implementation of adaptation measures.
A CC Adaptation Implementation Plan prepared IN each demonstration AREA
Frequency and
Reports
Semi-annual progress
reports
and
Annual M&E Report
SOCAD POCADs
and COCADSt
Project Scientist
Team in Chinese
Academy of Science
(CAS) and
SOCAD/POCADs/
COCADs
ANNEX C: RESPONSE TO PROJECT REVIEWS
a) Convention Secretariat comments and IA/ExA response
b) STAP expert review and IA/ExA response
Review prepared by Ian Burton
15, June 2007
Independent consultant
Emeritus Professor, University of Toronto
Scientist Emeritus, Environment Canada
26, St. Anne’s Rd.
Toronto, ON. M6J 2C1, Canada
Ian.Burton@ec.gc.ca
Tel Nos. 416 739 4314 or 416 538 2034
Overall Assessment
1. The adaptation imperative. As global progress in the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions continues at a slow pace it is becoming increasingly clear that all countries face
a considerable challenge in finding and implementing ways of coping or adapting to the
inevitable changes in climate, including the risks of climate variability and extremes. The
need for adaptation is greatest in those countries where development is already stressed by
climatic variables. The area of north China (3H Basin area) covered by this project
certainly qualifies as one of the world regions where development is at risk especially in
the field of rural agricultural development and the availability of water resources. This
project is therefore timely, opportune and well conceived.
2. A pilot, experimental approach. While there is considerable experience in the
management of water resources and agricultural development under “normal” climatic
conditions in China, including farmers, the agriculture and food industries, and
governments at all levels, many are only now becoming aware of the serious new threats
being generated by climate change. While the fact of climate change is now accepted there
remains considerable uncertainty about the exact nature and rate of the changes in
temperature and rainfall in specific regions. There can therefore be no clear blueprint for
action. It is necessary to “learn by doing” in an experimental pilot project approach. The
north China adaptation project falls into this mould. It is carefully planned and at the same
time designed to be flexible and responsive to inputs from the farming community and to
new information about the nature of the climate risks as this is generated during the course
of the project. China as well as other countries with similar challenges stands to learn and
gain a lot from this project.
3. Mainstreaming adaptation into development. Although climate change is a new threat
to water resource management and rural development it makes no sense to develop new
purpose-built or problem-specific responses and institutional capacity. Such so called
“stand-alone’ adaptation projects can be expected to have little value, and could be quite
counter-productive. It is entirely appropriate therefore that this project is an “add-on” to
existing World Bank projects in the region including especially the IAIL3. These projects
did not specifically take climate change into consideration. Nevertheless they do involve
the sorts of actions that are needed to cope with the added risks of climate change. This
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
27
means that if climate change should by some good fortune happen at a slower pace that
anticipated there would still be considerable potential benefit from the adaptation
measures that it is anticipated will be put in place. This project is also therefore a good
example of “no regrets” adaptation.
4. The future incorporation or mainstreaming of adaptation. While adaptation to climate
change has not been specifically incorporated into existing World Bank projects in north
China, it is encouraging to note that the designers of this adaptation project have planned
to extend the lessons learned more broadly into China’s national agricultural development,
(Comprehensive Agricultural Development). In this way this project promises to be a
good model that can lead to the much wider adoption of the mainstreaming of climate
change risks into development activities in China and elsewhere.
5. The dynamics and sustainability of adaptation. A fundamental and recurrent problem in
development assistance of all kinds is the matter of the continuity and sustainability of the
changes initiated. This is likely to be especially acute in dealing with climate change,
because the nature of the climate problem is essentially dynamic, fluid and indeterminate.
It is not a matter of shifting from adaptation to present climate to adaptation to a future
climate as in moving from one equilibrium state to another. Climate is changing, will
change, and will go on changing. The task is not so much therefore to promote the
adoption of a set of specific selected adaptation measures although this certainly forms an
important part of the project. The task includes the creation of an adaptable farming and
water management community and capacity. There is probably enough of this kind of
flexible learning and adaptability build into the project. It is important to recognize
however that an important legacy of the project should be the generation and
strengthening of a sense of adaptability and adaptive capacity. Such benefits are not
readily measured in monetary terms.
6. A positive assessment. The perspective of this reviewer is that this is an excellent, first
rate, timely and much needed project. The vision and enthusiasm of the project developers
and proponents comes through all the technical text. It is easy to be captured by the
enthusiasm. It may be appropriate therefore to express a cautious note. The project is very
ambitious and promises a lot. Some of the claims made seem a little optimistic. These are
not small plans, and even if they are not fully achieved in all respects there is every
indication that this will be an extremely valuable project.
Some Specific Comments
1. Baselines. It is important for project evaluation and for the future application of this
type of work elsewhere to know and understand enough about the starting conditions. One
way to express this is to ask, “How well adapted to current climate is agriculture and
water management now?” The project documents provide some evidence that crops yields
are already suffering as a result of climate stress and water deficiency.
2. The mix of rainfall and irrigation. The relative role of rainfall versus irrigation clearly
varies from on part of the project region to another. In developing adaptation measures it
is important to tailor or design such measures to present and future changes in the balance
between rainfall and irrigation water.
3. Specific measures versus adaptation and development strategy. There is a dominant
flavour in the project documents that seems to lean towards the selection and promotion of
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
28
specific adaptation measures. While this is valid it should also be recognized that
vulnerability to climate change can be increased or decreased by the overall choice of
development path or strategy. How will this be taken into account? For example the focus
of the project is on rural development and agriculture, but there are also likely to be
competing demands for water from other uses. The documents refer at one point to the
potential for “reallocation” of water resources. It might be advisable as the project
develops therefore to keep in mind what is known (and not known) about the expected
development trajectory of the region. This involves not only the strategy for agricultural
development, choice of crops, anticipated markets and the like, but also the phenomena of
urban growth, rural-urban migration and so forth.
4. Constraints and opportunities. The project includes stakeholder involvement,
interviews and surveys of the farming community, farmer’s perception of climate risks,
and the choice of adaptation measures. These are important ingredients of the project. It
should also be recognized that there are many other factors that enter into farm-level
decisions about choice of crops and cultivars, modes of cultivation, and other agricultural
practices, including such things mentioned in the project documents as tree planning and
conservation, biodiversity, off-farm employment, size of farm and farm boundaries, and
scores of other variables. All of these can interact with climate variables and affect
farmer’s choices. The importance of this is that adaptation measures for climate change
that may seem to make sense and should be widely adopted face obstacles and barriers
that are not immediately apparent, or may be deliberately disguised or concealed. Farmers
and farming communities make choices in relation to a wide range of considerations and
variables and climate and especially climate change is not necessarily perceived as being
important among them.
5. Opportunities. It is good that the project documents also mention the idea of pro-active
adaptation in terms of new opportunities. It is a common pattern in the adaptation
literature to talk about worst case scenarios and emphasize the negative aspects of climate
change exclusively. It is surprising however how often challenges can lead to new
opportunities and this project does recognize that.
6. Partially blended? The projects make reference to the fact that the proposed adaptation
project will be “partially blended” with the ongoing Intensified Irrigated Agriculture
Project (IAIL3). The integration of adaptation to climate change into ongoing
development makes good sense and is essential in this case. Why then only “partially
blended”? There may be good reasons for this but they are not explicit or apparent in the
project documents.
Summary
From the project documents this has all the hallmarks of an acceptable project. It is
technically sound; the project team is competent, capable and balanced, and the necessary
safeguard polices have been applied. The project has good country level buy-in. It
promises to fill some important gaps in development in a timely and effective fashion and
its demonstration value should be considerable both within China and more widely in the
international development community.
Ian Burton.
15. June. 2007.
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
29
IA/ExA response
Responses to STAP reviewer comments
The project task team would like to express their gratitude to the STAP reviewer for the
encouraging and supportive comments on this proposed GEF adaptation project. The team
also appreciates the highly insightful and professional views of the STAP reviewer. The
team reviewed the STAP review’s comments carefully and incorporated the points as
appropriate to further strengthen the project documents, including the GEF Executive
Summary. In particular, the team would like to underline the following points:
STAP Review
Response from the Task Team
Overall Assessment
2. A pilot, experimental approach is needed. There is
considerable uncertainty about the exact nature and
rate of the changes in temperature and rainfall in
specific regions and there can therefore be no clear,
fixed blueprint for action. It is necessary to “learn by
doing” in an experimental pilot project approach. The
proposed project needs to be carefully planned and at
the same time designed to be flexible and responsive to
inputs from the farming community and to new
information about the nature of the climate risks as this
information is generated during the course of the
project.
This is a very important point, especially in China,
where implementation of “plans” is a standard
procedure. The GEF project will break this pattern
as it requires “learning by doing” and adjusting
project implementation accordingly while the project
is progressing. IAIL2/3 was also designed with the
flexibility to enable project components to be
adjusted and improved in view of changed conditions
even during the implementation. If this “learning by
doing,” programmatic approach succeeds, it will be a
major accomplishment and both help enhance project
impacts substantially and provide useful lessons to
on project design and implementation for other
project in China and also for other countries..
In addition to the 'learning by doing' approach
adopted under the project, preparation of the project
also uses state of the art models for assessment of
possible interactions between climate uncertainties
and change, interventions and behavioral responses
based on available data; this will help avoid
irreversible mistakes. Among several
studies/assessments underway or planned, the role of
hydrologic and economic modeling is critical. This
work has been a main focus of project preparation so
far.
3. Mainstreaming adaptation. So-called “stand-alone’
adaptation projects can be expected to have little value,
and could be quite counter-productive. It is entirely
appropriate that this project is an “add-on” to an
existing World Bank-supported project (IAIL3).
Although IAIL3 did not specifically take climate
change into consideration, it involves the sorts of
actions that are needed to cope with the added risks of
climate change. This means that if climate change
should by some good fortune happen at a slower pace
that anticipated there would still be considerable
potential benefits from the IAIL3 adaptation measures.
This project is also therefore a good example of “no
regrets” adaptation.
The Task Team has been working with China to
integrate the GEF components with IAIL3 at the
operational level. Advantages of the mainstreaming
approach include: the GEF $5 million would
influence/leverage the much larger financial and
human resources of IAIL3 and the CAD program in
China; GEF’s adaptation concepts and approach
would be widely disseminated through the IAIL3
implementation demonstration; and more Chinese
would have opportunities to learn about climate
change adaptation.
4. The future incorporation or mainstreaming of
This is a highly valid point. In addition, it should be
Project Executive Summary TemplateV4.doc
January 30, 2007
30
adaptation. While adaptation to climate change has not
been specifically incorporated into existing World
Bank projects in China, this adaptation project is
planned to extend the lessons learned more broadly
into China’s national agricultural development (CAD).
This project promises to provide a good model that can
lead to the much wider adoption and mainstreaming of
adaptation to climate change risks into development
activities in China and elsewhere.
noted that methodology-wise, the approach taken by
this project could be extended relatively easily to
other countries elsewhere. This important aspect of
the project can also be of value to agencies, such as
the World Bank and GEF in considering future
climate-adaptation-development type projects.
5. The dynamics and sustainability of adaptation. A
fundamental and recurrent problem in development
assistance the continuity and sustainability of changes
initiated. This is likely to be especially acute in dealing
with climate change, because the nature of the climate
problem is essentially dynamic, fluid and at present
indeterminate. Climate is changing, will change, and
will go on changing. The task is not so much therefore
to promote the adoption of a set of specific selected
adaptation measures (although this certainly forms an
important part of the project). The task is the creation
of an adaptable (adaptation-oriented) farming and
water management community, capacity and mentality.
A key legacy of the project should be generation and
strengthening of a sense of adaptability and adaptive
capacity. Such benefits are not readily measured in
monetary terms.
The project has incorporated the concept of “flexible
adaptation” which is dynamic and can change over
time according to climate changes adaptation needs.
The mind-set changes based on knowledge sharing
and public awareness under the project be especially
important to reduce vulnerability and increase
adaptive capacity, and also continue the adaptation
processes over the long term. The Task Team will
place more emphasis on this point during preparation
and appraisal and will continue to work with Chinese
stakeholders to further strengthen this dynamic
response system which includes awareness building
of both public (government officials) and private
decision makers at different levels..
6. A positive assessment of project and also a caution.
The reviewer considers the project to be excellent, first
rate, timely and much needed, but it also notes that the
project is very ambitious and promises a lot.
Although the project appears ambitious, there are
several reasons to believe that the project is doable in
the Chinese context: (a) China has strong ownership
of this project and recognizes the urgent need for
adaptation to climate change for its agriculture, in
particular in the vital 3H area; (b) China has an
excellent implementation performance record for
innovative Bank-supported projects, including IAIL2
(the predecessor of IAIL3); (c) China has committed
substantial additional financial and in-kind resources
to the project during preparation and will provided
much more during implementation; (d) although this
is a completely new project and knowledge on
climate change adaptation is very limited, it will be
partially blended and closely associated with IAIL3
which already has many climate-change related
activities under successful implementation; and (e)
measures have been taken in the project to
avoid/reduce risks and a number of appropriate
assessments and studies have already been
undertaken satisfactorily.
Also, the Task Team working with Chinese
counterparts and stakeholders have already removed
a number of overly-ambitious elements from the
original project design, such as exploration of
agricultural insurance and mainstreaming adaptation
into the New Countryside Program.
Given the flexibility in the project design and strong
ownership of GoC, the Team will continue to work
on the details of project implementation to ensure
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realism and pragmatism as needed for a successful
adaptation project on the ground.
Specific comments
1. Baselines. It is important to know and understand
enough about the starting conditions. One way to
express this is to ask, “How well adapted to current
climate are agriculture and water management now?”
The project documents provide some evidence that
crops yields are already suffering as a result of climate
stress and water deficiency, which is a sign that of
inadequacies in water management.
Baseline issues are very important given the
demonstration nature of the project. During the last
mission, M&E was an important subject of
discussion with SOCAD and the provinces.
Identifying baselines and indicators requires learning
and special efforts, especially since the propose
project is the first GEF supported project in any
country for adaptation in the area of agriculture. In
addition, different adaptation measures require
different baselines and indicators. The work plan on
indicators and baseline data collection has been
agreed as a collective effort among scientists,
SOCAD, POCAD, farmers, and the Task Team. IN
addition, several assessments and studies already
getting underway will contribute directly to baseline
data, for example, the economic analysis studies
could provide a good economic estimate of
adaptation to present climates across various
samples. This point will be stressed further during
project preparation and appraisal.
3. Specific measures versus adaptation and
development strategy. There is a dominant focus of the
project documents is on selection and promotion of
specific adaptation measures which is valid. However,
vulnerability to climate change can also be increased or
decreased by the overall choice of development path or
strategy. For example, although the focus of the
project is on rural development and agriculture, it
might be advisable as the project develops to keep in
mind what is known (and not known) about the
expected future development trajectory and pattern of
the region. This involves not only the strategy for
agricultural development, choice of crops, anticipated
markets and the like, but also for urban growth, ruralurban migration, etc..
The task team considers this a key point for overall
climate change adaptation strategy, and one which
will likely impact on the climate change adaptations
under the proposed project. Due to the limited
resources of the GEF project, however, significant
work on climate change adaptation in the other areas
will not be possible under the project. Nevertheless,
possibilities for a preliminary study on how
adaptation requirements for major competing water
users may impact agricultural adaptation will be
explored.
4. Constraints and opportunities. The project includes
stakeholder involvement, interviews and surveys of the
farming community, farmer’s perception of climate
risks, and the choice of adaptation measures. These are
important ingredients of the project. It should also be
recognized that there are many other factors that enter
into farm-level decisions about choice of crops and
cultivars, modes of cultivation, and other agricultural
practices, including such things mentioned in the
project documents as tree planting and soil
conservation, biodiversity, off-farm employment, size
of farm and farm boundaries, and scores of other
variables. All of these can interact with climate
variables and affect farmer choices. This means that
adaptation measures for climate change that appear to
make sense and should be widely adopted may face
unexpected obstacles and barriers that are not
Several measures taken so far in the project would
help deal with these issues, including: (a) the full
participation of direct beneficiary farmers (through
their own organizations -- the WUAs and FAs) in
project preparation/implementation and the relevant
decision-making process; (b) the modeling exercise
the project has been undertaking; and (c) the
empirical experiences from local stakeholders (local
governments, local scientists, etc.) as well as
expertise of top adaptation experts in China and other
countries. It is very difficult for such an operation
analyze such complex issues precisely because of
obstacles and barriers that are not immediately
apparent or may be deliberately disguised and
concealed. This is why one of the fundamental
methodological approaches of the project is to
consult with the farmers and other key stakeholders
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immediately apparent, or may be deliberately disguised
or concealed. Farmers and farming communities make
choices in relation to a wide range of considerations
and variables, and climate change is not necessarily
perceived as being important among them.
as much as possible during project preparation and
implementation and ensure their participation in the
selection of the adaptation measures which are most
relevant and useful to them.
6. Partial blending. The project documents make
reference to the fact that the proposed adaptation
project will be “partially blended” with the ongoing
IAIL3 project. The integration of adaptation to climate
change into ongoing development makes good sense
and is essential in this case. Why is the blending only
“partial ”? There may be good reasons for this but they
are not explicit or apparent in the project documents.
The need for “partial blending” is because IAIL3 was
approved by the World Bank Board (in October
2005) before the GEF project was conceived and the
GEF project would be added on now, instead of
preparing the two projects together at the same time.
Fortunately, IAIL3 has a program approach design
which allows changes during implementation, unlike
most projects. This should not affect the impacts of
the GEF adaptation activities but will provide an
opportunity to adjust IAIL3 design and make IAIL3
more resilient to climate change.
c) GEF Secretariat and other Agencies’ comments and IA/ExA response
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