Inbound tourism in Italian regions: performance and potentialities by Giovanni Giuseppe Ortolani, Andrea Alivernini and Luca Buldorini 2004 v. 1.0 INBOUND TOURISM IN ITALIAN REGIONS: PERFORMANCE AND POTENTIALITIES by Giovanni Giuseppe Ortolani, Andrea Alivernini and Luca Buldorini * Abstract Tourism is one of the traditionally 'strong' sectors of Italy’s economy. Nevertheless, the position in the ‘lifecycle’ of the various destinations, considered as tourism products offered to visitors, is significantly differentiated among regions. Some regions appear to be touristically ‘mature’, whereas others seem to be at earlier stages of tourism development. The study identifies the geographical areas with the highest growth potential, i.e. the regions that in principle should be focused on by policy-makers. At the same time, the research provides hints on the potential development that an optimal exploitation of tourist resources could generate, taking into account the constraint of the availability of local human resources. The study makes use of data produced by UIC and national statistical office (ISTAT). In the paper, three main methodological tools are applied. The estimation procedure to make up for the lack of official statistics on domestic tourism expenditure can be considered an original contribution. Whereas, the methodologies to assess the regional tourist ‘attractiveness’ and to calculate the impact of internal tourism expenditure in terms of value added and employment are largely derived from previous studies of TCI (Touring Club Italiano) and CISET (Centro Internazionale di Studi e Ricerche sull'Economia Turistica). * Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi, Statistics Department The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi. 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Estimation of Italy's internal tourism expenditure ........................................................................ 6 3. Main features of Italy's internal tourism expenditure patterns .................................................... 10 4. Tourism attractiveness of Italian regions .................................................................................... 14 5. Tourism and regional development ............................................................................................. 19 6. Concluding remarks .................................................................................................................... 21 7. References ................................................................................................................................... 23 3 1. Introduction1 Traditionally, international travel plays a remarkable role in balance of payments (b.o.p.) statistics, as the associated expenditure represents an important component of the current account balance (in the Travel item, part of Services) of an economy. For this reason, special attention has been constantly devoted, in the b.o.p. domain, in measuring travellers'2 expenditure. Moreover, in tourism statistics there is a growing interest in isolating and studying the economic impact of tourism activities, both international and domestic. This has eventually led, in recent years, to the definition of a new set of statistics, the Tourism Satellite Account3 (TSA), which considers tourism activities as a specific and peculiar type of demand, generating a certain level of consumption (expenditure)4 of goods and services supplied by a diversified range of economic sectors. Thanks to the TSA, production, employment and income generation in the various sectors of the economy can be analysed as directly or indirectly triggered by travellers. This study attempts to combine the b.o.p. and tourism statistics concepts and sources in order to reach a twofold objective: 1) to assess the potential tourist attractiveness of Italian regions and their present capability to exploit this potential in order to 'capture' tourism expenditure and 2) to provide hints on the possible economic development that Italian regions could gain from the improvement of the exploitation of their tourist attractiveness, taking into account the possible constraint of the availability of local labour force. The first objective requires the quantification of the present level of Italy's internal, i.e. both inbound and domestic, tourism expenditure. Similarly to most countries, Italy's inbound tourism expenditure is quite 1 Although the overall responsibility for the paper is shared by the three authors, Giovanni Giuseppe Ortolani wrote paragraphs 1 and 6, Andrea Alivernini wrote paragraph 3 and Luca Buldorini wrote paragraphs 2, 4 and 5. The authors are especially grateful to Antonello Biagioli and Pietro Mascelloni, of UIC's Statistics Department for useful discussions and comments at different stages of the research. 2 In this paper, following the definitions of the International Monetary Fund on balance of payments statistics [International Monetary Fund (1993), Balance of Payments Manual - Fifth Edition, Washington DC - BPM5 in the following], the 'statistical unit' considered is the traveller. It should be noted that the concept of traveller adopted here broadly corresponds with the concept of visitor used in tourism statistics. In the following, the terms 'traveller' and 'visitor' are used as synonyms, both in the international and domestic tourism contexts. 3 The conceptual reference of the TSA was set in European Commission, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Tourism Organization, United Nations (2001), Tourism Satellite Accounts: Recommended Methodological Framework. Luxembourg - Paris - Madrid - New York. Guidelines for the implementation of TSA in the European Union Member States can be found in Eurostat, European Implementation Manual on Tourism Satellite Accounts, 2002, Luxembourg. 4 This paper uses consumption and expenditure as synonyms. accurately covered by current official sources, whereas domestic expenditure is not5. Therefore, a substantial part of the study concerns the development of an original methodology to estimate the approximate magnitude of the expenditure originating from trips of residents within the Italian territory, broken down by Italian destination region. This study builds on a previous analysis carried out some years ago6, whose focus was the substantial underdevelopment of inbound tourism in Italy's southern regions. To this end, a set of attractiveness indicators was designed, on the basis of a comprehensive inventory of cultural, environmental and social assets of each region. The potential increase of inbound tourism expenditure in the South of the country that an 'ideal' exploitation of tourist resources could promote was subsequently estimated. Finally, the expansion of inbound expenditure was translated, trough an input-output model, into the expected growth of valued added and employment in those regions. Differently from the earlier analysis, this study does not concentrate on southern Italy, as it considers all regions. This enlargement of the scope of the investigation aims at assessing the level of tourist efficiency and the general economic feasibility of its improvement in each local context, through a more open, exploratory approach. The present analysis is meant to prompt the discussion on the topics presented, rather than to provide 'conclusive' findings, as several weaknesses of the study have to be recognised. Among the most relevant we point out three aspects. First, the approximation of the model adopted to estimate, because of the mentioned lack of relevant official statistics, Italy's domestic tourism expenditure. Second, the substantial fuzziness of the concept of tourism attractiveness of the regions and the difficulties for its quantification. Third, the simplified modelling of the potential economic impact of an ideal tourism development. All these aspects can be significantly improved through further efforts. All data in the present study refer to the situation in the year 2002, i.e. the more recent year for which complete official statistics on all relevant dimensions were available at the time the paper was written. The paper is structured as follows. Paragraph 2 illustrates the methodology used to obtain an as much as possible complete picture of total Italy's internal tourism expenditure, with details on the approach used to the estimate the domestic part. Paragraph 3 contains a brief description of the main characteristics of the country's internal tourism demands, analysing both the physical and monetary variables, broken down by the most significant classification attributes (type of accommodation used and country of origin). Paragraph 4 introduces the concept of tourism attractiveness of a region and its operationalization. Paragraph 5 depicts 5 Non-official statistics on the regional distribution of Italy's domestic tourism expenditure are regularly jointly elaborated by IRPET (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana) and CISET; see Manente, M., "Il turismo nell'economia italiana" in Becheri, E. et al. (2003), XII Rapporto sul turismo italiano, Firenze. Nevertheless, this source does not provide the data details (type of accommodation , purpose of travel, visitors' country of origin) needed for part of the analysis conducted in the present study. 6 See Touring Club Italiano - Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998), Turismo estero al Sud: una occasione di sviluppo, Roma and Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998), The Geography of International Tourism Demand in Italy, Roma. 5 the ideal scenario of tourist and economic development for each region, taking into account the constraint of the locally available human resources. Paragraph 6 reports the conclusive considerations. 2. Estimation of Italy's internal tourism expenditure Despite the economic importance of the tourism sector, several difficulties hinder the possibility to derive a fully comprehensive picture of visitors' expenditure in Italy from the currently available sources. In the first place, the definition of the reference population, namely of the individuals to be concretely addressed when trying to measure the phenomenon, poses major difficulties. People travel for many different reasons and, depending on the purpose of their travelling, not all travellers are considered equally relevant. As an example, tourism statistics do not consider "commuting trips" (individuals moving to reach their usual working location) as part of tourism activity; this involves the need to identify such travellers within the larger population of travellers, in order to exclude their expenses from tourism analysis. Also problematic is the definition of the concept of "usual environment", which delimits the area beyond which an individual in movement is considered a visitor. This concept is somewhat intrinsically vague, especially in relation to domestic tourism, and, partly as a consequence of this, an accepted international standard defining it with sufficient precision has not yet been developed. In Italy there are two main sources addressing tourism from the demand side. The first is a survey on international travellers (foreigners in Italy and Italians abroad) conducted by the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (UIC), carried out at the Italian borders through face to face interviews7. Being the main purpose of the survey the estimation of the Travel item of the balance of payments, expenditure is its target variable. The survey definition of travellers refers to any individual resident8 in a given country moving to another country, irrespective of the purpose of the trip and the length of the stay. Hence, any traveller physically crossing the national borders is covered by the survey (i.e. travellers crossing the borders commuting to reach their usual work location are also included). The expenditures measured in this survey are all those performed by the traveller while visiting the foreign country, provided that they are carried out to acquire goods and services for personal use. For further details on the survey methodology see: Biagioli, A. (1997), “Sample Survey on Italian International Tourism”, in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Third International Forum on Tourism Statistics, Paris; Eurostat (2000), Technical Group Travel Report. Revision of the Collection Systems for the Travel item of the Balance of Payments of EU Member States Following Stage Three of the EMU, Luxembourg; Mirto, A. P. and Ortolani, G. G. (1998), Methodology for The Collection of Statistics on Tourist Movements at Land Frontiers, Seminar “Frontier Statistics in European Countries” (World Tourism Organization), Madrid; Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1996), Indagine campionaria sul turismo internazionale dell’Italia. Luglio. Agosto, Settembre 1995, Roma; World Tourism Organisation (1999), Seminar on Frontier Statistics in European Countries (Surveys on Inbound & Outbound Tourism), Madrid and UIC's web site at http://www.uic.it. 7 8 The concept of 'residence' of an individual is also defined in BPM5. It broadly identifies the country (economy) in which that individual has his/her 'centre of economic interest'; in most cases, it is the country where the individual normally lives. 6 The second source is a household telephone survey conducted by ISTAT9 on "Trips and vacations" ("Viaggi e Vacanze") of Italians. This survey provides figures on the number of trips and the number of night stays of Italians, but it does not provide data on expenditure. The scope of the ISTAT survey is more restricted than that of the UIC survey, as the former only covers tourists (i.e. the visitors who spent at least one night outside the usual environment). In addition, consistently with tourism statistics definitions, travellers commuting to reach their usual work location are excluded. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the inbound and domestic expenditure in Italy, or total internal tourism expenditure, disaggregated by region, merging the two sources described above. To this end, a certain degree of approximation in the compliance to definitions was unavoidable, given the current data availability. Travellers, in this note, are defined as those spending at least one night outside their usual residence, therefore excluding all the so called same-day visitors or excursionists (those starting and ending the trip in the same day), which, in principle should have been also included. The limitation of the population of travellers to tourists might seem quite restrictive, as same-day visitors can sometimes generate an important part of tourist expenditure. However, it should be also considered that excursionists, although very numerous, are normally far less important in terms of per capita expenditure. According to the UIC data (referring only to foreign travellers) in the border regions of Northern Italy the share of same-day travellers on total travellers is 44%, but their expenditure represents only 7.5% of the total10. This suggests that the impact of this exclusion should not substantially bias the results of this study. It is also underlined that a concept of "consumption during the trip" is used here. Only goods and services acquired by the traveller during the stay are considered11. Goods and services acquired at home are excluded, even when the acquisition is clearly related to the trip (i.e. the suitcase bought before the journey). The reason for the adoption of this approach comes from the fact that expenditure data are only derived from the UIC survey, which strictly applies this concept, in line with b.o.p. rules. The quantification of the expenditure of resident visitors within Italy's territory (domestic tourism expenditure) poses serious problems due to the unavailability of official statistics directly addressing this area. However, from the ISTAT survey on "Trips and vacations" it is possible to derive a comprehensive assessment on the number of night stays that Italians spent outside their usual residence. Table 2.1 shows the survey results on the year 2002, with figures broken down by destination region, type of accommodation (hotel, rented dwelling, accommodation offered by friends or relatives, other) and purpose of travel (personal, business). 9 ISTAT (2002), I viaggi in Italia e all'estero nel 2001, Roma; available at http://www.istat.it. 10 This percentage exclude the expenditure of same-day travellers for shopping reasons as this is a quite peculiar phenomenon mainly due to Slovenian and Croatian residents shopping in the Friuli region. 11 Those goods and services are included irrespective of the fact that the are paid before, during or after the trip. For example, aggregates presented in this paper include accommodation services both paid directly at the hotel and paid in advance through a travel agency. 7 The quantity of nights spent outside the usual environment is certainly highly correlated with the level of travellers' expenditure. Indeed, total expenditure can be defined as the product between the number of nights and the average per night expenditure or average daily per capita expenditure. Information on the latter quantity is at present not available in Italy's official statistics. In this study an attempt is made to estimate it, with an acceptable approximation, using the results of the UIC survey on the expenditure of foreign travellers. In order to improve the comparability of average expenditure between Italian and foreign travellers, only visitors from other euro area countries have been considered in the second group; this allowed, for example, to exclude foreign tourists from certain countries (i.e. the US and Japan) that most likely are characterised by an expenditure behaviour significantly different from that of Italians. Euro area travellers have been further classified according to the region visited, the purpose of travel (personal, business) and the type of accommodation used (hotel, other accommodation), since these three variables show a clear correlation with the average expenditure per night. Table 2.1 - Domestic tourism. Night stays. Thousands. 2002.(1) Personal Business Of which hotel PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA ITALY Of which hotel TOTAL 14,243 6,693 36,002 36,039 24,127 30,405 6,923 40,422 41,207 7,607 18,292 33,457 15,630 2,604 31,131 42,693 4,943 39,352 46,063 37,156 3,355 2,419 8,730 5,123 12,012 7,287 1,153 21,850 9,020 3,284 1,737 4,010 4,896 575 5,631 3,966 756 2,073 5,203 5,558 1,505 124 736 5,557 760 3,619 1,384 4,061 2,500 560 2,610 6,551 908 301 944 1,892 389 1,135 2,518 2,755 903 74 442 3,334 456 2,171 830 2,437 1,500 336 1,566 3,931 545 181 566 1,135 233 681 1,511 1,653 15,748 6,817 36,738 41,596 24,887 34,024 8,307 44,483 43,707 8,167 20,902 40,008 16,538 2,905 32,075 44,585 5,332 40,487 48,581 39,911 514,989 108,638 40,809 24,485 555,798 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON ISTAT DATA (1) The table shows the crossing of three variables: destination region, type of accommodation and purpose of travel. Istat provided regional data broken down by type of accommodation and, separately, by purpose of travel, and national data jointly crossed by accommodation and purpose. In order to cross the mentioned three variables, a national average share of the night stays of business travellers spent in hotels on total night stays in hotels has been estimated (60%). This percentage has been applied to the night stays in hotels in each region, in order to estimate the hotel share for the business segment. The nights spent in hotel by personal travellers have been calculated as the difference between total night stays in hotels and night stays in hotels of business travellers previously estimated. 8 Despite the remarkable dimension of the sample (35,202 interviews), the crossing of these three variables produced a few cells with a rather small sample dimension. For cells with less than 30 underlying interviews, the sample values have been substituted by the global average. In order to improve the robustness of the estimated averages, an outlier detection and correction phase has been subsequently performed. The results of this elaboration are shown in Table 2.2. The resulting average expenditure per night, although referred to foreign travellers, contains elements of homogeneity that make it, in our opinion, a good proxy of the expenditure of the Italians travelling domestically. It seems in fact reasonable that an inbound visitor from the euro area and a domestic visitor that visit the same Italian region, in a similar type of accommodation and for similar purposes might have spent, on average, a comparably similar amount of money per day. In practice, the number of nights spent outside the usual environment by each category of Italian travellers (Table 2.1) has been multiplied by the average expenditure of the corresponding category (Table 2.2), providing an estimation of the total domestic expenditure of Italian travellers. Table 2.2 - Inbound tourism. Average expenditure per night of euro area travellers(1)(2). Euro. 2002. Personal Hotel PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA ITALY Business Other accommodation Other accommodation Hotel 121 149 86 113 77 101 111 77 100 104 76 135 85 45 106 95 81 81 103 99 45 37 38 38 36 41 46 32 52 36 26 39 30 18 38 32 32 29 44 35 159 226 121 188 116 158 127 148 142 166 140 238 186 77 159 153 138 135 150 153 31 57 57 57 28 52 90 54 42 43 67 46 36 20 46 64 35 34 45 39 99 40 168 43 SOURCE: UIC (1) Excluding same-day visitors. (2) Grey cells indicate imputed values. Data on non resident visitors' expenditure in Italy (inbound tourism expenditure) have been derived directly from the UIC survey on international tourism. Differently from the concepts used by the UIC for b.o.p. purposes, the definition of traveller considered in this paper is more restrictive, as all "same-day travellers" have been excluded as well as commuting travellers. The latter have been identified on the basis of the 9 residence of the employer: individuals moving to the location of the employer have been considered as commuting travellers12. As far as the expenditure is concerned, consistently with b.o.p. practices, only the "consumption during the trip" is considered (see above). Finally, combining domestic and inbound tourism expenditure, a comprehensive picture of total internal tourism expenditure in Italian regions has been produced. Table 2.3 shows the results, with a split between personal and business purposes. The subsequent paragraph provides a more detailed analysis of the characteristics of Italy's internal tourism, as derived from the estimation procedure explained above. Table 2.3 - Domestic, inbound and total (internal) tourism expenditure(1). Euro millions. 2002. Domestic expenditure Personal Business purpose purpose PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA ITALY 892 522 1,799 1,757 1,352 1,678 393 2,276 2,572 496 568 1,684 731 63 1,566 1,613 197 1,241 2,348 1,650 25,397 163 20 70 754 61 417 155 449 255 65 288 1,057 115 16 108 223 38 108 273 296 4,931 Total Inbound expenditure Personal purpose Business purpose 648 115 700 1,916 994 3,747 702 1,057 3,278 299 227 2,570 173 14 1,095 367 49 238 718 400 19,310 338 9 128 1,770 119 505 107 414 453 38 48 1,120 43 6 185 43 9 11 60 54 5,458 1,055 541 1,869 2,511 1,413 2,096 548 2,725 2,828 561 856 2,741 845 79 1,673 1,836 234 1,349 2,621 1,946 30,327 Total 986 125 828 3,686 1,113 4,252 809 1,471 3,731 337 275 3,690 215 20 1,280 410 58 249 778 455 24,768 Internal expenditure Personal Business purpose purpose 1,540 637 2,499 3,673 2,346 5,426 1,095 3,334 5,851 794 795 4,254 903 77 2,661 1,981 246 1,479 3,066 2,050 44,706 501 29 198 2,524 180 922 263 863 708 103 336 2,177 157 22 293 266 46 118 333 351 10,389 Total 2,041 666 2,697 6,197 2,526 6,348 1,358 4,196 6,559 898 1,131 6,431 1,061 99 2,953 2,246 292 1,597 3,399 2,401 55,095 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA (1) Excluding same-day visitors. 3. Main features of Italy's internal tourism expenditure patterns The estimation method previously described allowed to derive a data set on Italy's internal tourism, based on UIC's survey results for the inbound side and on estimates - original contribute of this paper - on ISTAT data for the domestic side. This paragraph analyses this data set in order to attempt to outline the main characteristics of Italian regions' total tourism demand, both from the physical (number of night stays) and monetary (expenditure) standpoint, highlighting its geographic variability. Italy's regional tourism data are 12 In this way, commuting travellers are distinguished from 'standard' business travellers, as the latter travel to a location which is different from the location of the employer. 10 broken down by the main tourism classification variables, in order to shed light on features that could remain hidden if only a global perspective was adopted. In 2002, € 55,095 millions were spent by travellers, in trips consisting of about 887 millions of night stays. The phenomenon is not uniformly distributed in Italian areas or region. As it can be seen in Table 3.1, the Centre is the area with the highest total expenditure (15,018 € millions), whereas the South is at the top by number of night stays (about 288 millions). Table 3.1 - Domestic, inbound and total (internal) tourism expenditure (Euro millions) and night stays (thousands) by Italian region visited. Excluding same-day visitors. 2002. DOMESTIC INBOUND TOTAL expenditure PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA NORTH-WEST TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA NORTH-EAST TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO CENTRE ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA SOUTH AND ISLES ITALY 1,055 541 1,869 2,511 5,976 1,413 2,096 548 2,725 6,781 2,828 561 856 2,741 6,986 845 79 1,673 1,836 234 1,349 2,621 1,946 10,584 30,327 night stays expenditure 15,748 6,817 36,738 41,596 100,899 24,887 34,024 8,307 44,483 111,701 43,707 8,167 20,902 40,008 112,784 16,538 2,905 32,075 44,585 5,332 40,487 48,581 39,911 230,414 555,798 986 125 828 3,686 5,625 1,113 4,252 809 1,471 7,646 3,731 337 275 3,690 8,032 215 20 1,280 410 58 249 778 455 3,464 24,768 night stays 14,883 1,605 12,950 39,302 68,740 18,956 56,820 12,113 23,178 111,067 46,597 5,495 5,918 36,671 94,680 4,486 586 15,718 9,808 909 6,088 10,809 9,065 57,469 331,956 expenditure 2,041 666 2,697 6,197 11,602 2,526 6,348 1,358 4,196 14,427 6,559 898 1,131 6,431 15,018 1,061 99 2,953 2,246 292 1,597 3,399 2,401 14,048 55,095 night stays 30,631 8,422 49,688 80,898 169,639 43,843 90,844 20,420 67,661 222,768 90,304 13,662 26,820 76,679 207,464 21,024 3,491 47,793 54,393 6,241 46,575 59,390 48,976 287,883 887,754 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA These data reflect different behaviours as for the composition of the flows: domestic tourism is mainly addressed to southern regions, while international tourism tends to be concentrated in the central and northeastern part of the country. Since international tourism is a segment richer than domestic tourism, southern regions present a lower daily average expenditure. In the following an attempt is made to provide some suggestions about the main factors that could describe the specificities of the various regions. As regards the purpose of trip, Figure 3.1 shows that in Italy 91% of night stays is made by leisure tourists and 9% by business tourists, whereas the composition of total expenditure in Italy shows a significantly different concentration: only 81% is spent by tourists travelling for personal purposes and 19% by business tourists. 11 The different composition between night stays and expenditure implies a different daily per-capita expenditure for the two segments: as shown in Figure 3.2, the value for the whole country is 126 € for business travellers and 56 € for personal purposes. This quite large difference seems to depend on the relative importance of business tourism inside the regions. Figure 3.1 - Internal tourism. Composition of night stays and expenditure in Italy, by purpose of the trip. Excluding same-day visitors. 2002. Personal 19% Personal 9% Business 81% Business 91% Night stays Expenditure SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA Figure 3.2 - Internal tourism. Daily per-capita expenditure (euro) by region and purpose of the trip. Excluding same-day visitors. 2002. 180 160 personal 140 business 120 100 80 60 40 ITALY SICILIA SARDEGNA CALABRIA BASILICATA PUGLIA CAMPANIA MOLISE ABRUZZI LAZIO MARCHE UMBRIA TOSCANA FRIULI V. GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA VENETO TRENTINO A. ADIGE LIGURIA LOMBARDIA PIEMONTE 0 VALLE D'AOSTA 20 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA Actually, the difference is particularly high in Lombardia and Lazio, where business tourism represents nearly 20% of the night stays while it is very limited in regions presenting a structure of tourism with prevalence of personal purposes. 12 The purpose of the trip seems to be the classification attribute that better explains the differences among the travellers' behaviours. In other words, a series of attributes is usually associated to each specific trip purpose (e.g. business travellers prefer to stay in hotel, usually they go to particular regions and come from particular countries, etc.). Another important - but often associated to the purpose of the trip - source of variability for travellers' behaviour in the Italian regions is the type of accommodation chosen. As it is evident in Table 3.2 below, the higher is the share of travellers staying in hotels, the higher will be their average expenses. Non-hotel hospitality is largely used (76% of the night stays), with peaks in the southern regions (Calabria 93%, Puglia 89%), while the north-eastern regions Emilia Romagna and Trentino Alto Adige present the lowest values (respectively 45% and 50%). Molise presents the lowest daily expenditure (only 27 € per-capita); Valle d'Aosta, with 79 €, is on the other side, especially because of quite high expenditure at hotels (152 €). Table 3.2 - Internal tourism. Daily per-capita expenditure (euro) and night stays (percentage on the total) by region and type of accommodation. Excluding same-day visitors. 2002. Daily per-capita expenditure PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA NORTH-WEST TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA NORTH-EAST TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO CENTRE ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA SOUTH AND ISLES ITALY Hotel Other Global 129 152 88 142 121 78 114 118 84 90 106 110 106 186 131 95 53 111 108 94 94 113 111 106 107 44 38 39 39 40 35 41 50 34 39 52 36 29 39 42 30 18 38 33 32 29 44 35 35 38 67 79 51 60 59 57 62 66 61 61 65 68 41 68 62 51 27 52 41 44 33 54 49 46 55 Night stays Hotel 27.0% 36.6% 25.0% 20.3% 24.2% 50.1% 27.8% 23.9% 54.6% 43.1% 24.1% 44.3% 15.8% 19.8% 22.5% 32.9% 26.0% 19.3% 11.4% 18.5% 6.8% 13.8% 18.1% 15.3% 24.0% Other 73.0% 63.4% 75.0% 79.7% 75.8% 49.9% 72.2% 76.1% 45.4% 56.9% 75.9% 55.7% 84.2% 80.2% 77.5% 67.1% 74.0% 80.7% 88.6% 81.5% 93.2% 86.2% 81.9% 84.7% 76.0% SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA Data are rather variable and indicate that the level of expenditure is strictly correlated with the accommodation chosen. In this sub-analysis, the overnight stay in hotel is representative of a sort of "upperclass" tourism - often associated with business tourism - opposed to the tourism of the travellers staying in alternative accommodation. As for the latter, the use of "second homes" for Italian travellers is particularly important for most of the Italian regions. Travellers adopting this type of accommodation usually yield a 13 limited economic impact on the visited regions accompanied by a relevant (increasing) negative effect on their environment, causing in some case problems of "tourism sustainability". The country of origin of the travellers heavily influences their behavioural pattern. Several factors, such as the socio-economic profile of travellers, the purpose of the trip and the distance from the Italian region visited, seem to affect the length of the stay and the expenditure pattern. Table 3.3 below shows how geographical factors affect the daily per-capita expenditure. The average daily per-capita expenditure is 75 €, but there is a strong variability depending on the region visited and the country of residence of the traveller: Centre regions present the highest daily per-capita expenditure (85 €), followed by North-West (82), NorthEast (69) and South and Isles (60). Again, the role of business tourism appears to be fundamental: the highest share of business travellers is concentrated - as it was already mentioned - in Centre and North-West regions. Looking at the tourists' country of origin, the Japanese are the top daily per-capita spenders (160 €), followed by the travellers from the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom. On the opposite side, Germans, Italians and Greeks showed the lowest level of expenditure - respectively 60, 59 and 37 euro. In general, compared to international tourism, domestic tourism is characterised by a lower daily per capita expenditure. Table 3.3 - Internal tourism. Daily per capita expenditure (euro) by destination area and country of residence. Excluding same-day visitors. 2002. North-West ITALY JAPAN UNITED STATES RUSSIA UNITED KINGDOM CROATIA AUSTRIA FRANCE SWITZERLAND SPAIN THE NETHERLANDS BELGIUM GERMANY GREECE OTHER-EUROPEAN OTHER-NON EUROPEAN TOTAL North-East 59 213 169 154 111 109 85 68 70 70 80 91 63 67 60 99 82 Centre 61 141 136 137 101 78 75 83 74 73 51 55 58 47 52 97 69 62 148 131 96 117 117 75 81 85 66 73 82 63 45 66 104 85 South And Isles 46 146 131 101 107 141 63 55 59 69 66 43 50 29 66 96 60 Total 59 163 139 119 110 90 74 73 71 69 66 65 60 37 60 101 75 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND ISTAT DATA 4. Tourism attractiveness of Italian regions In paragraph 2 the total internal tourism expenditure in each Italian region has been determined. We will try now to answer the question on whether the amount of this expenditure is adequate in relation to certain 'quality' aspects of the tourist supply, summarised by an indicator that is defined as attractiveness of the region. In defining the concept of attractiveness, the presence of tourist infrastructure (i.e. hotels, airports, 14 highways, etc.) has been deliberately excluded, as we aim at defining a concept of pure tourist potentiality, in order to highlight to which extent regions manage to exploit their tourist resources. In other words, making a parallel with a commercial product, there can be qualities that are intrinsic to the product, while other qualities, such as accessibility and name (standing, reputation, etc.), are the effect of promotion activities and other investments aiming at the product valorisation. The objective of this analysis is to try to 'quantify' the former type of qualities, i.e. the intrinsic ones, for each Italian region. Is it possible to assess the attractiveness of a region in the terms described above? There is certainly a strong component of subjectivity in evaluating how attractive a destination is for a traveller. In addition, previous paragraphs have shown that people travel for different purposes (i.e. vacation or business), each characterised by different attracting factors. The Touring Club Italiano (TCI), in the mentioned study in which the approach was first introduced 13, has proposed three types of attractiveness indicators for the Italian regions which can be very helpful for the purposes of this study. The first indicator, the cultural attractiveness indicator, is based on an inventory of cultural and art assets (such as churches, historical buildings, castles, museums, archaeological sites, etc.), weighted by their importance. The second, the environmental attractiveness indicator, is based on a number of indices which aim at the overall evaluation of the quality of the environment, such as percentage of parks and protected areas, presence of natural assets (beaches, lakes, mountains, etc.), quality of the water, pollution, opinion surveys, weighted by the dimensions of the region. The third indicator, the social attractiveness indicator, measures the intensity of the offer of social activities and events such as religious celebrations, historical representations, gastronomic fairs, etc. The three indicators address three characteristics of the tourism supply (culture, nature and society) which might be seen as strong "triggers" of travellers expenditure. Indeed, according to the 2002 answers to the question on the main purpose of the trip in the UIC survey, about 65% of the expenditure of foreign travellers in Italy can be connected with one of those three aspects (33% for cultural, 27% for environmental and 5% for social reasons). Still according to the UIC survey, the rest of the expenditure is connected with trips for visits to friends and relatives (15%) and with business purposes (20%). For these types of travellers it has been assumed that two simple indexes can be considered as attractiveness indicator. For visits to friends and relatives the index chosen has been the visited regions' total population, following the neutral assumption that these trips could be approximately proportional to the number of inhabitants. For business trips, the GDP in services of the region is the chosen indicator, under the assumption that the level of economic activity in services is the main trigger in this case. The underlying idea is that the dimension of the business travel market is positively 13 Touring Club Italiano - Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998) and Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998). 15 correlated with the degree of development of the destination (and also origin) economies, and, consequently, with the size of the services sector14. The hypothesis formulated in this work is that each of the five attractiveness indicator signals the potentiality of each region to capture tourism in each particular market segment. This allows reaching the final objective of obtaining an overall attractiveness indicator, built as the weighted average of the five indicators. The weights used are the shares of each type of tourism in total inbound expenditure, derived from the UIC survey (Table 4.1). The indicators value are shown in Table 4.2. Table 4.1 - Weights used to aggregate the attractiveness indicators. Percentages. Personal purposes Business Holidays Visits to relatives Culture Nature Society and friends 33% 27% 5% 16% purposes 19% SOURCE: UIC Table 4.2 - Attractiveness indicator by Italian region. Index (Italy = 1000). Overall indicator PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA 56 14 42 99 26 74 29 67 82 47 40 103 28 11 75 55 17 30 70 35 TCI culture 20 24 62 49 12 78 31 54 107 91 54 151 26 13 97 46 12 13 56 7 TCI nature(1) 80 12 17 77 51 58 26 71 75 29 33 50 41 16 44 64 36 54 85 83 TCI society 27 32 117 37 33 75 74 71 85 86 85 53 23 21 37 43 11 27 43 21 Population 74 2 27 159 17 80 21 70 61 15 26 90 22 6 100 70 10 35 87 29 GDP services 78 3 33 184 23 83 22 80 67 14 24 122 18 5 73 48 8 25 66 23 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON TOURING CLUB ITALIANO DATA (1) The nature indicator originally developed by TCI was a relative index, which did not take into account the dimension of the region. For this reason it has been scaled using the dimension (in km2) of the region. 14 See Littlejohn, D. (2001), "Business Travel Markets: New Paradigms, New Information Needs?" in Lennon, J. John ed., Tourism Statistics. International Perspectives and Current Issues, London. 16 The estimated internal tourism expenditure, in 2002 and the attractiveness indicator can now be put in relation, in order to assess the degree of exploitation of the tourism potential of each region. The latter variable is calculated as a ratio between the first two variables. Consequently, it expresses the amount of internal tourism expenditure 'stimulated' by each point of attractiveness. Table 4.2 shows the levels of the three variables in each region. The regions with a higher expenditure per point are those in which the tourist product is well valorised, while regions with a low value do not exploit it in an optimal way. The region with the best capability of valorisation is Trentino Alto Adige with euro 95.4 millions for each attractiveness point, but also Veneto (86.1) and Toscana (79.8) show a good exploitation level. Table 4.2 - Exploitation of tourist potential. Euro millions, index, euro millions per point. 2003. Internal tourism expenditure(1) PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE VENETO FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA ITALY Attractiveness Degree of exploitation 2,041 666 2,697 6,197 2,526 6,348 1,358 4,196 6,559 898 1,131 6,431 1,061 99 2,953 2,246 292 1,597 3,399 2,401 56 14 42 99 26 74 29 67 82 47 40 103 28 11 75 55 17 30 70 35 36.5 49.0 64.9 62.5 95.4 86.1 47.5 62.7 79.8 19.0 28.6 62.2 38.2 8.8 39.2 40.9 16.8 52.4 48.6 69.2 55,095 1,000 55.1 SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON TOURING CLUB ITALIANO DATA (1) Excluding same-day visitors. It is interesting to notice that a better utilisation of tourist resources seems to occur in the regions with a stronger economic development, as to indicate a certain link between the two phenomena. This relation is shown in Figure 4.1, where the tourist exploitation ratio has been plotted against the per-capita GDP of the regions, taken as an indicator of economic development. 17 Figure 4.1 - Plot of Italian regions' degree of exploitation of tourism potential against economic development. 28,000 Trentino A.A. 26,000 Lombardia Emilia R. Per-capita GDP - euro 24,000 Valle d'A. Piemonte 22,000 Friuli V.G. 20,000 Umbria Veneto Toscana Lazio Liguria Marche 18,000 Abruzzi 16,000 Molise Basilicata 14,000 Sardegna Campania Sicilia Puglia 12,000 Calabria 10,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Degree of exploitation of tourism potential - euro millions per attractiveness point SOURCE: UIC ELABORATION ON UIC AND TOURING CLUB ITALIANO DATA While the presence of a certain correlation is rather clear, the direction of the cause-effect link can not be easily identified. Is the economic development of the region that determines the regions' capability to valorise its tourism resources? Or is rather the tourist valorisation of the area that promotes economic wealth? The first hypothesis seems to be plausible, as it can be argued that the economic development of the region certainly creates a favourable background for the development of tourism. For instance, investments in infrastructures for the tourism industry (accommodations, transport connections, promotion activities, etc.) can be more easily undertaken in wealthy regions. Nevertheless, the second hypothesis cannot be disregarded. It could be argued, for example, that a proper valorisation of tourism in the South of Italy has always been problematic, for geographical 15 and other reasons. This is likely to have contributed, at least partially, to the economic underdevelopment of those regions. 15 Indeed, the geographic accessibility of the regions has been disregarded in the evaluation of attractiveness, while it could play an important role: the easier, or cheaper, the region is to reach, the higher are the probability of attracting tourists. 18 5. Tourism and regional development Following the hypothesis that tourism can provide important impulse on economic development, we try an approximate quantification of the short-term impact of tourist consumption on regional economies, in terms of GDP and employment. On this respect, we rely on a study of CISET16, which has developed regional activation matrices for tourist expenditure. These matrices allow calculating the impact on GDP and employment of aggregate tourist expenditure variations. CISET estimated that, as an average for the whole Italian economy, each EUR million of tourist expenditure activates about 0.8 EUR million of value added and 28 employees. These results include the so-called direct and indirect effects, where the former stem from the economic activities directly getting in contact with the tourist, while the latter originate from the subsequent steps of the production chain17. The CISET matrices also estimate the regional dispersion of the value added activation. In fact, not all the activated value added is created in the region where tourism activities actually occur, as indirect effects can stimulate production in other regions. This dispersion effect is geographically differentiated. It is more evident in the regions with a weaker productive structure, which, consequently, are more dependent on the supply of other regions, as it is the case of the regions of the South of Italy. Through this informative tool we simulate a hypothesis of increase of tourist expenditure in the regions where some unexploited potential has been detected. It could, for instance, be assumed that all regions, in a somewhat ideal scenario, manage to valorise their traveller attractiveness up to the national average (as mentioned, 55.1 EUR million for each attractiveness point), as shown in Table 5.1. It is interesting to notice that this ideal activation in some cases hits the constraint of the labour force available in the region, under the assumption that there is no inter-regional labour mobility. Some of the regions with a potential improvement in tourism activity are in a situation of "full employment" or very low unemployment rate, which could clearly limit the possible development. As an example, in the region of Marche the current unemployment rate is 3.7%. The supposed activation tourist expenditure (euro 1,047 millions for Marche) would require around 17,000 new employees, representing 2.6% of Marche's labour force. In general, it is not plausible that the employment rate might be below a certain threshold that is normally considered as a frictional or physiological rate. Therefore, whenever the unemployment rate of the region is rather low, we assume that a limit exists to the development of tourist activity, given by the availability of local human resources. 16 Manente, M., "Il turismo nell'economia italiana" in Becheri, E. et al. (2003), XII Rapporto sul turismo italiano, Firenze. 17 See Costa, P. and Manente, M. (2000), Economia del turismo, Milano. 19 Table 5.1 - Activation of tourism resources. Activation Current situation Tourist GDP (Euro expendit millions) ure (Euro millions) PIEMONTE VALLE D'AOSTA LIGURIA LOMBARDIA TRENTINO VENETO FRIULI GIULIA EMILIA ROMAGNA TOSCANA UMBRIA MARCHE LAZIO ABRUZZI MOLISE CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA ITALY Unemployme New tourist nt rate (% of expenditure labour force) (Euro millions) 2,041 666 2,697 6,197 2,526 6,348 1,358 4,196 6,559 898 1,131 6,431 1,061 99 2,953 2,246 292 1,597 3,399 2,401 96,010 2,791 32,899 227,998 25,345 103,951 25,393 98,942 76,153 16,066 29,218 115,343 21,017 5,074 74,178 51,918 8,734 25,040 64,816 23,781 4.8% 3.4% 6.0% 3.6% 2.5% 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 4.7% 5.2% 3.7% 8.7% 5.3% 12.9% 20.2% 13.8% 16.1% 23.5% 20.1% 16.8% 1,041.6 83.0 55,095 1,124,666 8.7% 8,262.9 216.7 1,700.8 1,046.8 470.0 521.4 1,196.2 780.1 667.0 82.6 456.7 Increase in GDP (%) Increase in employees (units) Increase in employees (% of labour force) 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 3.0% 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 14,517 1,685 4,294 21,481 3,590 9,932 7,030 13,893 10,868 16,019 16,929 14,918 10,768 6,394 29,364 21,209 6,083 4,395 13,610 2,919 0.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 4.6% 2.6% 0.7% 2.1% 5.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 229,897 1.0% SOURCE: UIC AND ISTAT Taking into account the limitation of the labour factor, we modify the initial hypothesis of activation, simulating an increase of expenditure only in those regions with both an unexploited tourism potential and a high unemployment rate (higher than 10%), highlighted with an ellipse in figure 5.1. The regions included in this group are exclusively in the southern part of the country. Abruzzi and Sardegna are the only two southern regions not complying with the mentioned two criteria because of, respectively, a low unemployment rate and a degree of exploitation of the tourism potential slightly higher than the national average. 20 Figure 5.1 - Plot of Italian regions' degree of exploitation of tourism potential against unemployment rate. Unemployement rate 25.00% Regions with activation Calabria Campania Sicilia potential 20.00% Sardegna Basilicata 15.00% Molise Puglia 10.00% Lazio Abruzzi Umbria MarchePiemonteFriuli V.G. Valle d'A. 5.00% Liguria Lombardia Emilia R. Toscana Veneto Trentino A.A. 0.00% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Degree of exploitation of tourism potential - euro millions per attractiveness point We now formulate again the hypothesis that the tourism demand is increased up to the national average exploitation (euro 55.1 millions per attractiveness point), but only for the six regions identified as capable to supply the local labour force that would be needed. In figure 5.2 the resulting unemployment rate reduction is shown. The stronger benefits would be obtained by those regions with a lower current tourist expenditure such as Molise (from 12.9% to 8.1%) and Basilicata (from 16.1% to 13.5%). Regions that presently show a better capability of valorisation of tourism would obtain less significant benefits (i.e. Calabria and Sicilia). Figure 5.2 - Plot of Italian regions' degree of exploitation of tourism potential against unemployment rate, present and in the ideal scenario. 26.00% Calabria 23.5% 24.00% 23.0% Unemployement rate 22.00% Campania 20.2% Sicilia 20.1% 20.00% 19.5% 18.9% 18.00% Basilicata 16.1% 16.00% Puglia 13.8% Molise 12.9% 14.00% 13.5% 12.5% 12.00% 10.00% 8.1% 8.00% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Degree of exploitation of tourism potential - euro millions per attractiveness point 21 6. Concluding remarks The analysis has showed that Italian regions are clearly diversified as regards their pure tourist potential or attractiveness, i.e. the intrinsic qualities of the product (the destination) they offer in the - increasingly competitive - international and domestic markets. Also different from one region to the other is the degree of exploitation of that tourist potential. Some regions appear to be successful in adding extra-value to the 'basic' region attractiveness, by improving the accessibility and the image of their tourist products, by means of appropriate investments or the efficient allocation / combination of the available resources. Symmetrically, it seems that other regions have substantially failed to exploit their potential to attract visitors. This is the case of most Italy's Southern regions. But the study has pointed out that the regions of the South of Italy are of the utmost relevance because of an additional element. These destinations are characterised by a structurally large unemployment rate. Consequently, the expansion of tourist demand that the ideal scenario would imply could be theoretically satisfied by the local offer of unemployed labour force. Hence, the study confirms and qualifies, in relation to the scope of internal tourism, what a previous work, in Touring Club Italiano - Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998), found in the more restricted area of inbound tourism. The relevance of the policy-making issue of a strengthening of the promotion of tourism in Italy's Mezzogiorno is then reinforced. As mentioned in the introduction, it is not the ambition of the analysis to be conclusive, as it could be improved in many respects. We stress here that the study would very much gain solidity from the improvement in data sources, particularly with the substitution of the estimated figures on domestic tourism expenditure with official data. The latter might hopefully be available in the next few years, as this information is indispensable for the development of the country's Tourism Satellite Account. Moreover, a possible direction for improvement would be the consideration of certain trans-regional effects that are disregarded in this paper. The increase of tourism consumption in one region can be detrimental for other competitor regions, as domestic tourists can be diverted from one Italian region to another. When this occurs, the benefits tend to cancel out at a national level. A net benefit for the country as a whole can however be achieved in many ways, as, for instance, capturing foreign international travellers from nonItalian destinations, diverting Italian travellers from foreign to domestic destinations or prompting new tourism demand. Finally, it should also be considered that, even in an ideal scenario, tourism development can bring negative effects. A strong and rapid growth of tourism, even disregarding the relevant negative implications for the socio-cultural dimension (modifications of the destinations' system of values, life-styles, traditions, etc.), can 22 have a harmful impact for the mere economic sphere. One of the worst dangers that is usually mentioned is the so called crowding out process, which occurs, in a given destination, when the non-tourist economic activities tend to disappear because the tourism sector attracts all the available resources 18, with a tendency towards a mono-sectoral economy that certainly involves problem of sustainability. 7. References Becheri, E. et al. (2003), Rapporto sul turismo italiano, Firenze Biagioli, A. (1997), “Sample Survey on Italian International Tourism”, in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Third International Forum on Tourism Statistics, Paris Costa, P. and Manente, M. (2000), Economia del turismo, Milano Eurostat (2000), Technical Group Travel Report. Revision of the Collection Systems for the Travel item of the Balance of Payments of EU Member States Following Stage Three of the EMU, Luxembourg Eurostat, European Implementation Manual on Tourism Satellite Accounts, 2002, Luxembourg European Commission, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Tourism Organization, United Nations (2001), Tourism Satellite Accounts: Recommended Methodological Framework. Luxembourg - Paris - Madrid - New York International Monetary Fund (1993), Balance of Payments Manual - Fifth Edition, Washington DC ISTAT (2002), I viaggi in Italia e all'estero nel 2001, Roma Littlejohn, D. (2001), "Business Travel Markets: New Paradigms, New Information Needs?" in Lennon, J. John ed., Tourism Statistics. International Perspectives and Current Issues, London Manente, M., "Il turismo nell'economia italiana" in Becheri, E. et al. (2003), XII Rapporto sul turismo italiano, Firenze. Mirto, A. P. and Ortolani, G. G. (1998), Methodology for The Collection of Statistics on Tourist Movements at Land Frontiers, Seminar “Frontier Statistics in European Countries” (World Tourism Organization), Madrid Prud'homme R. (1985), "Il futuro industriale di Venezia", in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Rapporto sulla rigenerazione industriale di Venezia, Paris. Touring Club Italiano - Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998), Turismo estero al Sud: una occasione di sviluppo, Roma Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1996), Indagine campionaria sul turismo internazionale dell’Italia. Luglio. Agosto, Settembre 1995, Roma Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (1998), The Geography of International Tourism Demand in Italy, Roma United Nations - World Tourism Organisation (1993), Recommendations on Tourism Statistics, Madrid New York World Tourism Organisation (1999), Seminar on Frontier Statistics in European Countries (Surveys on Inbound & Outbound Tourism), Madrid 18 For a formalization of the process see Prud'homme R. (1985), "Il futuro industriale di Venezia", in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Rapporto sulla rigenerazione industriale di Venezia, Paris. 23