CGE TRAINING MATERIALS FOR
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
ASSESSMENT
Chapter 2: Planning, including selecting vulnerability and
adaptation frameworks
CONTENTS
CONTENTS ............................................................................................................. I
2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1
2.2 PLANNING THE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ...... 1
2.2.1 Review previous assessments ............................................................. 1
2.2.2 Screening assessment (optional) ......................................................... 2
2.2.3 Assess capacity opportunities and constraints .................................... 3
2.2.4 Consider approaches to optimizing implementation............................. 3
2.2.5 Develop a V&A assessment project implementation plan .......................... 3
2.3 SELECTING VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) FRAMEWORKS ... 4
2.3.1 Types of Framework ............................................................................ 4
2.3.2 Adaptation Frameworks ..................................................................... 12
2.3.3 Local and Community Frameworks.................................................... 19
2.4 PRACTICAL CONSIDERATION IN FRAMEWORK SELECTION ................ 22
2.5 REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 23
APPENDIX 1: DRAFT GUIDELINES FOR THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL
ADAPTATION PLANS BY LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES ............. 24
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
2.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter is organised in two parts and outlines the key steps required for the
successful planning, and subsequent delivery of, the vulnerability and adaptation (V&A)
component of a national communication. The first part describes various project planning
and project management considerations that are both specific to V&A and also general
considerations in designing and implementing effective projects. The second half of the
chapter outlines the major V&A frameworks available to provide a structure for examining
the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation within the national communication.
While it is not necessary to select a particular framework before assessing V&A, it may be
desirable, as it provides consistency and transparency, particularly when working across
multiple sectors. It can also lead Parties to develop a tailored framework that draws on its
conceptual underpinnings or to draw on elements from different frameworks tailored to a
particular Party’s needs. It is prudent to be aware of the frameworks so as to understand
what outcomes the selected framework will deliver (and not deliver) and how it compares
with approaches taken in other V&A assessments.
2.2 PLANNING THE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
ASSESSMENT
Undertaking V&A assessments is one critical component of the national communication
process. The following section provides specific guidance for planning successful V&A
activities and should be considered within the overall planning process for national
communications.1
Key steps in planning the V&A component of a national communication are:
1. Review previous assessments;
2. Screening assessment (optional);
3. Assess capacity opportunities and constraints (budget, technical skills, data);
4. Consider approaches to optimizing implementation;
5. Develop a V&A assessment project implementation plan.
2.2.1 REVIEW PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS
A number of non-Annex I Parties have already undertaken at least one national
communication, while some have already submitted their second national communication.
The resource kit “Planning the National Communication Project”, is available at: < http://www.uncclearn.org/
sites/www.uncclearn.org/files/inventory/UNDP24.pdf >.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Consequently, the majority of non-Annex I Parties have some experience in the
development of V&A assessments. In addition, many least developed countries (LDCs)
have also undertaken national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs). In the NAPA
process, LDCs performed rapid participatory vulnerability assessments and rigorous
exercises of identifying and prioritizing potential adaptation options. A number of countries
have officially submitted their NAPAs to the UNFCCC, 2 using a range of stakeholder
engagement processes during their preparation. 3 Many non-Annex I Parties have also
undertaken additional V&A assessments in parallel to the national communication process
on individual priority areas, communities or sectors.
Under the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF), COP 17 adopted the national adaptation
plans (NAPs) process. This process allows LDCs and other developing country Parties to
reduce their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, and facilitates the integration of
climate change adaptation into new and existing policies, programmes and activities. This
process was designed to build upon LDC Parties’ experience in preparing and
implementing NAPAs. The key points from the COP 17 decision include the following:

Guidelines for NAPs for LDCs;

Modalities for NAPs for LDCs;

Financial arrangements for the formulation and implementation of NAPs;

NAPs and non-LDC developing countries;

Reporting, monitoring and evaluation.
Further detail on the NAP process can be found on the UNFCCC website.4 Importantly,
other developing country Parties are also invited to employ the modalities formulated to
support national adaptation planning activities.
Finally, a range of non-government organizations (NGOs), including academic institutions
and private sector organizations, have also undertaken V&A assessments. Many can be
accessed online through clearing house mechanisms, including the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) Adaptation Learning Mechanism. 5 Therefore, nonAnnex I Parties have the ability to carefully assess the strengths and weaknesses of
previous V&A assessments undertaken in their country.
2.2.2 SCREENING ASSESSMENT (OPTIONAL)
An optional step at the planning stage is to undertake a high-level, strategic assessment
of priority sectors, communities or issues for subsequent detailed vulnerability assessment.
2
A list of submitted NAPAs is available at <http://unfccc.int/2679.php>.
For further information about the NAPA process refer to: <http://www.napa-pana.org/> or to the UNFCCC
“Guidelines for the preparation of national adaptation programmes of action” (28/CP.7). Available at
<http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop7/13a04.pdf - page=7>.
4 <http://unfccc.int/adaptation/cancun_adaptation_framework/national_adaptation_plans/items/6057.php>.
5 Adaptation Learning Mechanism. 2011. Available at <http://www.adaptationlearning.net/>
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Such a screening assessment can also be valuable in choosing an overall V&A framework
or frameworks. This step is optional, given that a thorough review of previous national
communications and other V&A assessments can often yield similar results. Using this
optional step can also be a valuable planning tool for bringing the V&A team together
early to consider the different potential vulnerabilities across sectors (see chapters 5–8 in
this training resource). The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) has produced an excellent review of screening tools used in the development
sector entitled Harmonising Climate Risk Management Adaptation Screening and
Assessment Tools for Development Co-operation, 6 which provides guidance in
understanding screening assessments.
2.2.3 ASSESS CAPACITY OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS
Non-Annex I Parties have markedly different resourcing capacities to undertake V&A
assessments related to budgetary constraints, the ability to access technical skills incountry and to access locally relevant data. These capacity differences should also be
assessed within a regional context to review the ability to work collaboratively both with
neighbouring counties and with regional technical organizations and development
partners. For example, undertaking a review from a regional perspective on developing
climate change scenarios (see chapter 3) has been of significant benefit to a number of
Parties. Some Parties have found it valuable to work within bilateral relationships with
donors and/or with multilateral organizations to access specific technical expertise on a
sectoral basis (see chapters 5–8).
2.2.4 CONSIDER APPROACHES TO OPTIMIZING IMPLEMENTATION
‘Starting with the end in mind’ is an approach often used by professional project managers.
Thinking about the V&A component of a national communication all the way through, from
assessment activities to selecting adaption options, is a useful approach. Thinking
carefully about integration and mainstreaming (chapter 9), and communication (chapter
10), can often provide support in V&A planning in order to maximize the implementation
potential of the outcomes of the national communication. Engaging with key stakeholders
to discuss adaptation needs and priorities can be a useful way to help shape specific
sectors or prioritize geographic areas for assessment.
2.2.5 DEVELOP A V&A ASSESSMENT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
A clear, concise project implementation plan, in-line with national requirements and those
of the executing agency, should be developed as a component of the overall national
communication implementation plan. The plan should, among other elements, contain a
rationale for the selection of V&A frameworks, as outlined in section 2.3.
6
Hammill, A., and Tanner, T. 2011. Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Adaptation Screening and
Assessment Tools for Development Co-operation Available at: <http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/
harmonising-climate-risk-management_5kg706918zvl-en>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
As part of the project implementation plan, applying appropriate data management
methodologies is crucial in planning for any project. Simple processes such as deciding
on the choice software , if any, or how information gathered throughout the process of
completing the V&A will be stored, should be addressed. For example, shared servers or
networks are important for ensuring data are accessible to all members of the project
team. Appropriate and regular backups of all electronic data should also be undertaken to
ensure data are secure for long-term access. Data in this context has a broad meaning,
from digital mapping data (such as used in geographic information systems (GISs)) to
documents and reports compiled during the national communications process.
The principles of good data management also extend to the archiving and storage of both
hard copy and electronic documents. Such processes ensure that experiences, lessons
learned and data can be shared and built upon. Data collected and created as part of the
national communication process can often be used much more broadly.7
The above steps are important inputs to help shape the choice of V&A frameworks, as
described in section 2.3.
2.3 SELECTING VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A)
FRAMEWORKS
There are a number of frameworks available for V&A assessments and this section
describes some established frameworks. It provides a structured approach to questions
that should be considered when selecting a framework for a particular V&A context. This
includes factors such as data availability, resource requirements and stakeholder needs
(as outlined in section 2.2 above).
2.3.1 TYPES OF FRAMEWORK
The UNFCCC Resource Guide8 states that over the past 18 years many V&A frameworks
have been developed, tailored to the particular needs of a V&A assessment, as shown in
Table 2-1. The UNFCCC Compendium9 summarizes these frameworks and also provides
information on additional frameworks that may be useful in specific situations.
7
For a simple overview of data management principles, refer to: Australian Local Government Association.
2007. “Spatial Toolkit Module 3”, available at < http://alga.asn.au/site/misc/alga/downloads/info-technology/
03_Spatial_Toolkit_Module3.pdf>.
8 UNFCCC. 2008. “UNFCCC Resource Guide for Preparing the National Communications of Non-Annex I
Parties”. Available at <http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/items/
2625.php>.
9 UNFCCC. 2008. “Compendium on Methods and Tools to Evaluate Impacts of, Vulnerability and Adaptation
to, Climate Change”. Available at <www.unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_
methods_tools/items/2674.php>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Current good practice suggests that it is important to critically assess the strengths and
weaknesses of each framework within the particular circumstances (including the
outcomes of V&A assessment planning activities outlined in the previous section).
Therefore, this chapter does not state a preference for any framework, but urges parties to
consider all factors in the selection process.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Table 2-2: Established vulnerability and adaptation frameworks (adapted from UNFCCC,
2008 and Lu, 2008)
Framework
Year
released
Description
Approach
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Technical Guidelines for
Assessing Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptations
<www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/ipcctechnical-guidelines-1994n.pdf>
1994
Contains examples of first
generation approaches to
the assessment of
vulnerability and
adaptation. The
guidelines have an
analytical emphasis and
focus on identification and
quantification of impacts
Top-down
United Nations Environment
Programme Handbook on Methods for
Climate Change Impact Assessment
and Adaptation Strategies
<http://www.undp.org.tr/energEnvirDocs/
UNEP.handbook.1998.pdf>
1998
Provides a basic overview
to the field of climate
impacts and adaptation
assessment by sector,
introduces a wide variety
of methods available
Top-down
and
bottom-up
U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP)
<http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/webpage.html>
1996
Summary reports of
various V&A studies
undertaken by
participating countries
Top-down
United Nations Development
Programme Adaptation Policy
Frameworks for Climate Change (APF)
<http://www.undp.org/climatechange/ad
apt/apf.html>
2004
Facilitating climate risk
assessment and
management. Secondgeneration assessment,
places the assessment of
vulnerability at the centre
of the process
Top-down
and
bottom-up
Annotated guidelines for the preparation
of national adaptation programmes of
action (NAPAs)
<http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_
support/ldc/application/pdf/annguide.pdf>
2001
Provides some
conceptual and
procedural oversight for
the process of producing
a document that identifies
urgent and immediate
national priorities for
adaptation
Bottom-up
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Framework
Year
released
Description
Approach
United Kingdom Climate Impacts
Programme (UKCIP) Climate
Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and
Decision Making
<http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?opti
on=com_content&task=view&id=62>
2003
Provides guidance to
those engaged in
decision-making and
policy processes. It lays
out an approach to
integrating climate
adaptation decisions and,
more generally, climateinfluenced decisions into
the broader context of
institutional decisionmaking
Top-down
and
bottom-up
Australian Greenhouse Office Climate
Change Impacts and Risk Management:
A Guide for Business and Government
< http://www.climatechange.gov.au/
community/~/media/publications/localgovt/risk-management.ashx >
2006
Facilitating climate risk
assessment and
management, aimed at
local and governmental
bodies, and businesses
Top-down
and
bottom-up
USAID Adapting to Climate Variability
and Change; A Guidance Manual for
Development Planning
<http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environ
ment/climate/pub_outreach/index.html>
2007
Provides guidance on
integrating adaptation into
development projects.
Guides climate risk
screening and climate
proof project design,
aimed at development
agencies
Bottom-up
Toolkit for Designing Climate Change
Adaptation Initiatives (UNDP)
<http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/
UNDP%20Adaptation%20Toolkit%2020
10.pdf>
2010
Adaptation decision
focus.
Top-down
and
bottom-up
Problem definition and
adaptive solution
approach
Table 2-1 also shows how V&A frameworks have evolved from the 1990s onwards. Often
referred to as ‘first generation’, the frameworks developed in the mid-1990s focused more
on understanding how significant the impacts of climate change will be in order to direct
mitigation efforts. These early frameworks were based on climate scenarios generated
through general circulation models (GCMs) (see chapter 4), applied to models of
ecological or biophysical environments in particular sectors, including those outlined in
chapters 5–8.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Over time, growing concern around the need for adaptation led to changes in thinking
about V&A. This was reflected in the development of ‘second generation’ frameworks that
focus on more holistic impact assessments within adaptation decision-making contexts.
However, it is important to note that approaches to V&A are evolving rapidly, with more
recent work focused on blending merits of both first- and second-generation approaches.
For example, greater emphasis is being placed on socio-economic scenarios, stakeholder
participation and strengthening adaptive capacity. The UNDP Toolkit for Designing
Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives (2010), takes a decision-centred approach that
essentially ‘works backwards’ from potential adaptive decisions, providing guidance on
structuring impact assessments that support these decisions. The United States Agency
for International Development (USAID) Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A
Guidance Manual for Development Planning is also a useful resource in this regard.
There has also been an emergence of risk-based approaches to V&A, most notably
emanating from the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), the Australian
Government and also the Asian Development Bank (ADB) (see Table 2-2). Further
information on risk-based frameworks is provided in section 2.3.2.
It is useful to consider V&A frameworks in two general categories: impacts and adaptation.
Impacts frameworks are sometimes referred to as ‘first generation’ or ‘top-down’
frameworks. They were mainly designed to help understand the potential long-term
impacts of climate change. The adaptation frameworks, sometimes referred to as
‘second generation’ or ‘bottom-up’ frameworks, have been designed to focus on
adaptation and involve stakeholders. The features of these two approaches are shown in
Figure 2-1. It is important to stress that the notion of the ‘bottom-up’ nature of the
NAPA/NAP approach needs to be used with caution. Though bottom-up approaches are
placed as a major approach, the NAPA/NAP approach uses a blend of top-down and
bottom-up approaches: the top-down approach is used to stimulate and imitate the
bottom-up approach, while balancing potential unintended top-down influences on the
decisions.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Figure 2-2: Features of top-down and bottom-up approaches to assessing vulnerability and
adaptation (UNFCCC, 2008)10
It is increasingly recognized that the choice of ‘top-down’ versus ‘bottom-up’ approaches
is driven by a sense of where a V&A assessment sits in geographic hierarchy, from
individual communities (village, town or environment type) through local (municipality) and
regional (state, provinces and districts), to national and then international scales.
National level V&A assessments may be carried out using particular impact-driven
frameworks, which may combine with local scale participatory ‘bottom-up’ approaches.
Local level V&A may be undertaken using NAPA/NAP-style stakeholder driven
consensus-building processes (see Table 2-1), linked with additional sector-specific
localized detailed V&A assessment.
Refer to Module 3 in: UNFCCC. 2008. “UNFCCC Resource Guide for Preparing the National Communications of
Non-Annex I Parties”. Available at: <http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/
items/2625.php>.
10
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Consequently, ‘top-down/bottom-up’ thinking enables practitioners to ‘mix and match’ V&A
frameworks that apply to different geographic scales (global through to local community)
while also blending adaptation and impact-focused approaches (see Table 2 - 1).
Impacts Frameworks
Focus on assessing long-term risks from climate change and look many decades into the
future, most often in the range 2050–2100.
Figure 2-2 outlines the main elements of an impacts framework.
First, baseline socio-economic and environment scenarios (see chapter 3), as well as
climate change scenarios (see chapter 4), are developed by the assessment team. An
assumption about related variables within these scenarios is that they should be internally
consistent. For example, a higher population may be associated with a higher total gross
national product (GNP), but not necessarily with a higher personal income (GNP/capita).
Secondly, biophysical impacts are assessed, generally through consideration of historic
system sensitivity to climate variables. Impacts are integrated across related sectors (see
chapter 9) and autonomous adaptations are examined.
After these steps are completed, vulnerability can be estimated, and subsequently,
potential long-term adaptation actions can be examined.
IPCC seven steps (1994)
The IPCC seven steps lay out a process for estimating impacts from climate change,11
reflecting the overall impact-focused steps shown in Figure 2-2, namely:
1. Define the problem;
2. Select the method;
3. Test the method;
4. Select scenarios;
5. Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts;
6. Assess autonomous adjustments;
7. Evaluate adaptation strategies.
11
Carter et al., 1994; Parry and Carter, 1998.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Figure 2-3: Main elements of impacts frameworks
Baseline Scenarios
• Population
• Institutions
• GNP
• Environment
• Technology
Climate change
scenarios
Biophysical impacts
Socioeconomic impacts
Autonomous
adaptation
Integration
Vulnerability
Purposeful adaptations

U.S. Country Studies Program (1993–1999)
The U.S. Country Studies Program developed another impacts-focused framework.12 The
framework documents a set of methods and models to develop climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and to assess potential impacts on coastal resources, agriculture,
livestock water resources, human health, terrestrial vegetation, wildlife and fisheries. The
programme also provided guidance on adaptation. Documentation and data sets were
given typically for one model in each sector.13
It is interesting for those considering the choice of V&A frameworks to review how the U.S.
Country Studies Program framework has evolved over time into the more recently
produced USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for
Development Planning approach (see Section 2.3.2).
12
13
USCSP; Benioff and Warren, 1996; Benioff et al., 1996.
Further information on the USCSP can be found at <http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/webpage.html>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and
Adaptation Strategies (1998)
The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and
Adaptation Strategies14 reviews methods and models for conducting impact assessments.
It provides overall guidance to assist users sort through choices on methods and models.
Users are encouraged to obtain the methods or models and training on their own. The
handbook has chapters on the same topics as the USCSP, but also includes a chapter on
assessing impacts of climate change on energy use.
2.3.2 ADAPTATION FRAMEWORKS
Adaptation frameworks, developed in recent years, focus on involving stakeholders and
addressing adaptation needs. These frameworks also put relatively more emphasis on
current concerns, such as vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events, in
contrast to the longer-term perspective common with impact assessment frameworks.
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework 2005 and 2010 version
The UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) 15 emphasizes stakeholder involvement
and analysis of vulnerability to current climate. The APF explicitly links climate change
adaptation to sustainable development and global environmental issues. It is structured
around four major principles, namely:
1. Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events serves as a starting
point for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change;
2. Adaptation policies and measures are assessed in a developmental context;
3. Adaptation occurs at different levels in society, including the local level;
4. The adaptation strategy and the implementation process are equally important.
The 2005 APF framework contains technical papers on: scoping an adaptation project;
engaging stakeholders; assessing vulnerability; assessing current and future climate risks;
assessing changing socio-economic conditions; assessing adaptive capacity; formulating
an adaptation strategy and continuing the adaptation process.
The UNDP Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives 16 builds on the
2005 APF by taking an even more explicit decision-centred approach. The UNDP Toolkit
essentially ‘works backwards’ from potential adaptive decisions, through seeking to
analyse the underlying drivers of concerns (both climate change and broader
14
UNEP. 1998. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies.
Available at: <http://www.undp.org.tr/energEnvirDocs/UNEP.handbook.1998.pdf>.
15 Ebi K, Lim B and Aguilar Y. 2005. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework. Available at:
<http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html>.
16 UNDP. 2010. Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives. Available at:
<http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/UNDP%20Adaptation%20Toolkit%202010.pdf>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
developmental pressures) and providing guidance on structuring impact assessments that
support these decisions. The UNDP Toolkit uses a six-step process, shown in Figure 2-3
with information on each step shown in Table 2-2. The UNDP Toolkit (p.11) describes the
six steps as “a minimum set of activities for defining a project with a logical structure,
throughout which stakeholder consultation is critical.
Figure 2-4: The UNDP Toolkit Six Steps for Designing an Adaptation Initiative (UNDP, 2010)
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Table 2-3: Key components in the UNDP Toolkit six-step approach
Step
Description
1. Defining the problem.
This step involves describing the climate change-induced
problem that is of concern.
2. Identifying the causes of
the problem.
This step involves identifying the reason(s) for the climate
change-induced problem. Analysis of the causes will involve
examining development stresses upon which the additional
climate change stress is superimposed. An examination of why
the climate change-induced problem is not currently addressed
may be required. There are likely to be a range of non-climaterelated factors that are also at the heart of the problem. An
understanding of the causes of the problem is critical for
formulating a targeted adaptation initiative.
3. Identifying and
articulating the normative
response.
Identify and articulate the normative response. This is the
preferred solution or situation to address or manage the identified
underlying problem(s). Several inputs, including: a) results of
climate change assessments; b) findings from technical
assessments, including those from applied research; c) technical
expertise (local, sub-national, national, and international (where
relevant); and d) political considerations need to be brought to
bear to formulate the normative response.
4. Identifying key barriers.
The underlying logic is to identify the reasons why, if a given
situation is preferred, it has not already been put into practice or
implemented. Once the normative response has been articulated,
the next step involves identifying the set of barriers that must be
overcome to meet the normative response. That is, a
comprehensive mapping is required of all critical barriers that
need to be removed to achieve the normative response. This
mapping exercise is necessary, among other reasons, to
determine the results that are sought and that linkages to other
ongoing initiatives are made. This exercise builds upon the
identification of the causes behind a given problem. It will enable
project developers to determine the most appropriate level of
intervention for a given initiative.
5. Designing project
responses to overcome key
barriers
Once steps 1–4 are complete, enough information should be
available to design a clear and well-articulated adaptation
initiative. The design should include: a) expected results; b)
tangible products/services that the initiative will deliver; c)
activities and inputs that are required to achieve the key results
and products/services. At this stage, the project design should
also address issues of financing and project monitoring and
reporting.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
6. Reviewing the first five
steps and completing
checklists to ensure duediligence in meeting source
of fund requirements
The last step involves the review of the first five steps and
completion of checklists. This will help ensure that all steps are
complete and improve the project’s chance for effective
implementation.
USAID 2007
The USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for
Development Planning 17 produced in 2007, applies USAID’s overall project cycle
approach to adaptation planning, and also seeks to integrate climate change factors into
all types of development assistance. The USAID approach is undertaken through six
steps, within the four phases of problem diagnosis, project design, implementation and
evaluation, shown in Figure 2-4.
Figure 2-5: USAID Project Cycle and V&A Approach (USAID, 2007)
The USAID framework is viewed more of a cycle (in the style of Figure 2-4) than a linear
process “owing to the dynamic nature of assistance: the completion and evaluation of one
project could provide the impetus for a subsequent project to build on the previous
project’s accomplishments, or address issues that were absent in the previous design or
emerged over the course of implementation” (USAID, 2007, p. 6).
Further detail on the USAID framework is show in Figure 2-6. A valuable analysis of the
application of the USAID framework in the Asia-Pacific region, in a range of developmental
contexts and settings, is provided in the USAID report Asia-Pacific Regional Climate
Change Adaptation Assessment.18
17
USAID. 2007. Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for Development Planning.
Available at: <http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADJ990.pdf>.
18 USAID. 2010. Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment. Available at: <http://transition.
usaid.gov/rdma/documents/RDMA_Asia-Pacific_Climate_Change_Adaptation_Assessment_Final_Report.pdf>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Figure 2-6: Process and definitions in the USAID framework
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Risk-based Frameworks
Risk management is the process of defining and analysing risks to facilitate decisionmaking on the appropriate course of action to minimize risk. Risk management is
increasingly advocated as a valuable tool to assist in managing the risks and hazards that
may occur as a result of climate change. Risk-based frameworks are used as the basis in
both the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), and the Australian
climate change adaptation planning processes. They are also widely used in the AsiaPacific region mainly due to adoption by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
An International Standards Organisation (ISO) Standard (ISO 31000:2009) Risk
Management – Principles and Guidelines19 now supports these approaches. Risk-based
frameworks can be applied in a number of contexts, from strategic-level screening
assessments through to guiding local-level adaptive decision-making.
There are five phases in a risk assessment shown in Figure 2-7, namely:
1. Set the context;
2. Identify the risks;
3. Analyse the risks;
4. Evaluate the risks;
5. Treat the risks.
Figure 2-7: Five steps in the risk assessment framework20
19
Available for purchase from: <http://www.iso.org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnumber=43170>.
Based on Australian Greenhouse Office, 2007. Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for
Business and Government. Available at: <http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/~/media/
publications/local-govt/risk-management.ashx>.
20
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
According to the ISO Standard (31000:2009) risk is defined as:
The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives.
Consequently, a climate change risk can include positive risks (opportunities) and
negative risks. Risks must also be risks ‘to something’, most often a risk to a management
objective. This is a very important difference between risk-based frameworks and the
impact-based frameworks described in Section 0 in that risk-based frameworks focus on
‘objectives’, as show in the definition of risk above. In practice this means that a clearly
defined set of causal chains from climate variable through to the climate change in that
variable, impact and risk must be developed (see Figure 2 - 7). This enables both a clear
focus on what a non-Annex I Party is seeking to achieve in its V&A assessment and also
enables a transition from the analysis of risk through to adaptation action plan
development.
Using risk frameworks can also be beneficial in V&A contexts where there is engagement
with particular sectors, such as insurance or engineering, where there is long-standing
experience in using risk assessment methodologies, but not necessarily in a climate
change context.
Figure 2-8: Links between climate change drivers and risks (modified from: Australian
Greenhouse Office, 2007)
The Second National Communication (SNC) of Columbia , for example, used a risk-based
approach for their V&A that enabled the SNC team to “determine the risk of loss of goods,
services or functionality” (Executive Summary page 57). Further information on the
Columbian approach with respect to its application in supporting integration activities is
shown in chapter 9.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
NAPA/NAP guidance
The NAPA process was started under COP decision 28/CP.7 – and was superseded by
COP decision 5/CP.17, which outlined the development of NAPs.
In the 46 NAPAs drafted as of December 2011, LDCs have identified their highest
priorities/options for adaptation. There is a range of NAPA guidelines and support
materials prepared by the least developed countries Expert Group (LEG)21 that discuss
the objectives and structure of NAPAs and provide a framework for their preparation.
COP decision 5/CP.17 provided a new set of guidelines for the development of NAPs,
shown in appendix 1.
Importantly, the LEG will continue to play a crucial supporting role in the development of
enhanced guidance to LDCs in drafting their NAPs, including coordination of a broad
range of activities (COP decision 5/CP.17, paragraph 12):
1. Technical guidelines for the NAPs;
2. Workshops and expert meetings;
3. Training activities;
4. Regional exchanges;
5. Syntheses of experiences, best practices and lessons learned;
6. Technical papers;
7. Technical advice.
Finally, while non-Annex I Parties that are not LDCs are not included in the NAP process,
they are invited to use the NAP guidelines and related materials to assist in their national
adaptation planning processes.
2.3.3 LOCAL AND COMMUNITY FRAMEWORKS
A number of V&A frameworks that focus on the community and local levels have been
developed in recent years, mainly by NGOs, in response to a need for a ‘bottom-up’
community driven methods. Four of the most commonly used community-based
frameworks in the NGO community were recently analysed by the OECD 22 shown in
Table 2-3.
21
<http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/ldc_expert_group/items/6110.php >.
OECD. 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change. Available at:
<http://www.oecd.org/env/climatechange/adaptationtoclimatechange.htm>.
22
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Table 2-4: Comparison of four NGO-developed local-level V&A frameworks (OECD, 2011)
Name
Developer
Target
Audience
Key inputs
Key Outputs
CEDRA
Tearfund
Development
field practitioner
with senior
management
support
Guidance and
checklist for six steps
to identify and
prioritize hazards and
adaptation options
Identifies risks
and risk
management
of programme,
including
changes to
portfolio of
projects
CVCA
CARE
Project
managers, field
staff, local
partners and
communities
Framework with
supporting questions
and exercises:
participatory
community-level
analysis combines
local knowledge with
climate science
Assessment
informs
programming
and provides
evidence base
for advocacy
CRiSTAL
IISD, IUCN, SEI,
IC
Communitylevel project
planners and
managers
Two-module analytical
framework for linking
local livelihoods and
climate. MS Excel
interface for entering
information and
compiling report.
Typically 1–5 days
Results serve
as a basis for
designing or
adjusting
projects for
adaptation
Adaptation
Toolkit
Christian Aid
Country
programme and
partner staff
No set steps. Three
toolkits for
understanding
livelihoods adaptation
(PVCA), community
climate analysis and
strategy development
Analysis
informs
livelihood
programming
and cc
strategy
development
The approaches outlined in Table 2-3 have all been applied in numerous projects within
non-Annex I countries. Each has a slightly different focus, depending on the target
audience and the development context. However, they all share a focus on assessing
potential climate change impacts and responses by focusing initially on present-day
climate hazards, through a vulnerability-driven approach. A comparison between the
processes of the four approaches to community-level V&A is shown in Table 2-4.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Table 2-5: NGO climate risk assessment processes (OECD, 2011)
CEDRA
CVCA
CRISTAL
Adaptation Toolkit
Six steps for
prioritizing
environmental
hazards that pose a
risk to projects and
identifying and
choosing options to
address them:
Series of questions
and accompanying
tools to understand
climate-related
vulnerability and
adaptive capacity
(CVC) in communities:
Steps to identify
livelihood resources
(LR) exposed to
climate hazards
and/or important to
coping, to be
reinforced in
projects:
Four basic stages to
support adaptation
to climate change in
Christian Aid Secure
Livelihoods
programme:
1) Identify
environmental
hazards
2) Prioritize hazards
to address
3) Select adaptation
options
1) Assess CVC at
national level
2) Assess CVC at
local government/
community level
3) Assess CVC at
household/individual
level
4) Address
unmanageable risks
5) Consider new
projects and
locations
6) Continual review
NB: Guiding questions
fall into four
categories, which
comprise CARE’s
Community-Based
Adaptation (CBA)
Framework:
- Climate-resilient
livelihoods
- Disaster risk
reduction
- Capacity
development
- Addressing
underlying causes of
vulnerability
1) Identify climate
change impacts
2) Identify current
climate hazards,
impacts, coping
strategies
3) Identify most
important LR in the
community
4) Identify those LR
most vulnerable to
hazards and
important to coping
5) Assess how
project activities
affect access to/
availability of these
key LR resources
1) Review available
information on shortterm weather and
longer-term climate
science
2) Compare with
local or indigenous
knowledge of
communities most
directly affected
3) Conduct
participatory
vulnerability and
capacity assessment
4) Select the most
appropriate option
for integration:
- Adaptation
planning
- Climate proofing
- Climate screening
6) Adjust project
activities to
reinforce access to/
availability of these
key LR
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
2.4 PRACTICAL CONSIDERATION IN FRAMEWORK
SELECTION
The considerations that may affect the choice of a particular V&A framework at a
conceptual level, outlined in the previous section, will also be shaped by practical
considerations, including those highlighted during the V&A assessment planning process
(see Section 2.2). Ensuring a balance of conceptual and practical factors, when combined
effectively, should ensure the optimum choice of frameworks to seek the differential needs
of non-Annex I Parties.
A V&A assessment should serve the needs of stakeholders, not the needs of the
specialist conducting the study. If possible, stakeholders should be involved in the process,
particularly to determine what is to be examined and what adaptation measures should be
considered.
As outlined in Table 2-2, there are many practical considerations that will shape the
approach to V&A in national communications, including: access to resources (such as
money, staff or information); availability of national and/or international expertise; and
availability of time. An excellent resource kit produced by the UNDP National
Communications Support Programme (NCSP) provides guidance on understanding these
practical issues. 23 Section 2 of the UNDP/NCSP resource kit includes information on
preparing a work plan, timeline and budget, a project inception workshop and establishing
systems and processes. A useful set of questions that can be asked to help shape the
choice of V&A frameworks was provided in the UNFCCC Resource Guide, shown in Box
2-1.
Box 2-1: Sample questions to think about when initiating a vulnerability and
adaptation assessment
 What is of concern – food production, water supply, health, ecosystem loss?
(Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperature, but in
consequences of climate impacts for people, e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition.)
 Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable that may need specific
risk assessments?
 Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in society?
 How far into the future is the concern?
 For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising awareness (education),
policymaking?
 What kind of output is needed?
Source: UNFCCC. 2008. UNFCCC Resource Guide for Preparing the National Communications of
Non-Annex I Parties. Available at
<http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/items/2625.php>.
23
The resource kit, Planning the National Communication Project, is available at: <http://www.uncclearn.org/
sites/www.uncclearn.org/files/inventory/UNDP24.pdf>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
2.5 REFERENCES
AGO (Australian Greenhouse Office). 2006. Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management.
A Guide for Business and Government. Australian Greenhouse Office, Department
of the Environment and Water Resources.
Benioff R and Warren J (eds.). 1996. Steps in Preparing Climate Change Action Plans:
A Handbook. Washington, DC: US Country Studies Program.
Benioff R, Guill S and Lee J (eds.). 1996. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments:
An International Guidebook. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic
Publishers.
Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H and Nishioka S. 1994. IPCC Technical Guidelines for
Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. London: Department of
Geography, University College London.
Ebi K, Lim B and Aguilar Y. 2005. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework. Available at:
<http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html>.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2011. Adaptation to
Climate Change. Available at: <http://www.oecd.org/document/58/0,3343,en_2649_
34361_36738106_1_1_1_1,00.html>.
Parry M and Carter T. 1998. Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment: A Guide to the
IPCC Approach. London: Earthscan.
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2010. Toolkit for Designing Climate
Change Adaptation Initiatives. Available at: <http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/
UNDP%20Adaptation%20Toolkit%202010.pdf>.
UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 1998. Handbook on Methods for
Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Available at:
<http://www.undp.org.tr/energEnvirDocs/UNEP.handbook.1998.pdf>.
USAID (United States Agency for International Development). 2007. Adapting to climate
variability and change; a guidance manual for development planning. Available at:
<http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/pub_outreach/index.html>.
USAID. 2010. Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment. Available
at: <http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/policies_prog/adaptation.html>.
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
APPENDIX 1: DRAFT GUIDELINES FOR THE
PREPARATION OF NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS
BY LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES
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Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
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