Saudi Arabian Embassy in Cairo Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Project Partner: CCC, Greece Professor Kunz CEE243, Integrated Concurrent Engineering 2/13/2016 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Overview (Q. 1 – see front-page for general information) Executive Summary CCC currently uses a broad range of VDC tools for the Saudi Arabian embassy project in Cairo. In order to improve VDC’s potential we extended the VDC tools and examined the project from an organizational standpoint. Based on the project’s schedule and our assumptions we compiled a base case of an organization model using the VDC tool named SimVision. Thereafter, we configured the base case and used it to come up with possible alternative schedules which decreased the potential backlog, hidden work, duration and cost of the project. Our main contribution to this project is the introduction of the benefits of organization modeling using SimVision. To achieve our goal, we used the Saudi Arabia embassy project as a case example. We used SimVision to predict the project’s backlogs and hidden work in our base case. By analyzing such predictions and understanding their source, we were able to create an alternative case which reduces backlogs and hidden work and thereby reduces the schedule duration and the overall costs of the project. SimVision will provide CCC a new option to plan future projects and identify potential risks in early project stages. This in turn will lead to more accurate predictions about backlogs, schedule duration and project cost and their major sources hidden work. Because the source of hidden work can be identified and understood and consequently reduced, CCC will have a tool at hand that can help to improve the overall performance of a project. Assumed Engineering Problem Organization modelling using SimVision predicts high backlogs and large amounts of hidden work which cause high project cost and long schedule duration. By understanding and identifying the sources of these problems it is possible to do some remodelling in order to reduce high backlogs and hidden work and consequently also project cost and schedule duration. Value proposition (BIG idea) Introduce CCC’s community the benefits of organization modelling and its ability to identify hidden work and backlogs resulting from concurrent work and other risks. By developing an organization model of the Saudi Arabia Embassy project in Cairo, we show how SimVision can be used to optimally plan, staff and manage this project or any further project in terms of hidden work, backlogs, schedule duration and overall costs compared to their traditional best practice. 1 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Figure 1: Overview of the used visualization models and how their input/output relate to each other. 3D Model of Project (Q. 2) MISSION TOWER PODIUM RESIDENTIAL TOWER Basement and landscape Figure 2: 3D model of the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Cairo showing its main components Mission Tower, Residential Tower, Podium, Basement and Landscape. 2 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Schedule Alternatives (Q. 3) Highly parallel Staggere d Figure 3: The baseline and the alternative case both have the exact same activities. The difference in the finish date is due to the difference in the order of the tasks. The baseline case has all the tasks programmed to be done highly in parallel. The alternative case has the tasks programmed in a sequential, staggered manner. The difference in the task order design implies differences in rework, hidden work and coordination issues. According to SimVision’s predictions, the alternative case finishes the construction of the project roughly half a year earlier! 3 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki 4D Model Analysis (Q. 4) 4 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki SimVision Process-Organization model (Q. 5) Figure 4: Mapping of SimVision tasks to their corresponding physical objects in the 3D model Figure 5: Decision dashboard comparing baseline case (as planned by CCC) and a case where the main phases of the project (Podium, Mission Tower and Residential Tower) are performed in sequence (staggered). Through staggering the main phases, the reciprocal interdependencies between the main phases decrease which leads to a decrease of hidden work. This decrease in work volume leads to a ripple effect. The peak backlog decreases from 61.55 to 2.55 days; the overall cost decreases from $219M to $176M; and the completion date can be moved forward from July 2009 to January 2009. This example shows how beneficial it is to do organization modeling to identify hidden work and understand its sources and consequently identify ways to decrease it. ≈ 26.5k days Figure 6: Changes in schedule and organization results in a decrease of 26.5k work days of hidden work ≈ $42M Figure 7: Reduction in hidden work leads to a decrease in overall project cost of $42M 5 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki SimVision Gantt chart (Q. 6) Figure 8: Comparison of a schedule (tasks are shown in fully drawn bars) which considers rework and coordination (leading to hidden work) and a schedule (tasks are shown in lighter colors) which does not consider rework and coordination. This shows the impact coordination and rework can have on the work volume and consequently the duration of a project. This has also an impact in the risk of backlogs (next to other risk factors). This impact is illustrated in Figure 9. ≈ 42 days Figure 9: Consideration of hidden work increases backlogs (in this case approx. 42 days) 6 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki PBS, OBS and WBS (Q. 7) Figure 10: Illustration of the interrelationships between the PBS, OBS and WBS. The elements in each breakdown structure are consistent with the corresponding elements of the other breakdown structures. 7 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Instance POP Model (Q. 8) Figure 11: Instance POP Model of the baseline (as planned) schedule. The behavior row shows different predictions obtained form VDC tools (areas from ADT and risk indices, backlogs, completion date and costs from SimVision). The squares indicate requirements (function row) and predictions (behavior row) which are shown by the Decision Dashboard of SimVision (the bottom of this figure). 8 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Suggestion for Coordination (Q. 9) Plumbing Team Residential Tower Plumbing Residential Tower Plumbing Team Podium Plumbing Podium Rework link Coordination link Figure 12: Proximity in space and time of the podium and the residential tower (similarly between podium and mission tower) suggests that communication will be necessary. 9 Baseline and alternative POP Model (Q. 10) Figure 13: Compares the POP Model of the basecase case (left – representing the data as it the project is planned by CCC) and the POP Model of the improved case (right – the three main phases of the project (Podium, Mission Tower and Residential Tower) are performed in sequence). It becomes obvious that without changing the product at all but simply by changing the organization and the sequence of the activities (this change is not reflected in the POP Model) the performance of the project can be significantly altered (changes and their effects are indicated by different colored squares). These changes in the Form row effects the predicted behavior in terms of non-labor costs, peak predicted backlog, work cost and project finish date. Suggestion for Rework (Q. 11) Plumbing Team Mission Tower Plumbing Team Podium Plumbing Mission Tower Plumbing Podium Rework link Coordination link Figure 14: Proximity in space and time (notice the date of construction in the red box) of the podium and the mission tower (similarly between podium and residential tower) suggests that rework will be necessary. Controllable Objectives (Q. 12) To make sure organization modeling is implemented and its potential can be used, we propose following controllable objectives: ◦ Have at least two SimVision case alternatives for the project Project team should model these alternatives in an early stage of the project. By updating the models week by week, the project team can predict schedule duration, cost, hidden work, and position backlogs. ◦ Have at least one 4D animation comparing two of the SimVision alternatives Project team should develop these models as soon as the SimVision models have been finished to make the differences visually evident. By updating the model week by week concurrently with the SimVision generated schedule, the project team can evaluate if the predictions meet the business objectives. Organization and Process Objectives (Q. 13) Organization Objective - Position backlog <= 50 days. (Predictable behavior can be found in the corresponding organizational behavior cell in the POP model) CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Prediction - Construction team can make use of a SimVision generated model to predict position backlogs week by week. Evaluation - Construction team can keep an as-built schedule which shows the actual implemented work volume. By comparing the actual completed work volume (e.g. assuming a linear progress) to SimVision’s predicted work volume, the project team can conclude the actual backlog and evaluate how much they are behind. Process Objective - Cost development of tasks over time conformance > 90%. (Predictable behavior can be found in the corresponding organizational behavior cell in the POP model) Prediction - Construction team can use a SimVision generated model to predict the development of cost per task over time. Evaluation - Construction team has to keep an as-built cost breakdown per task (e.g. by using a cost accounting tool). This can be used to evaluate if the predicted cost development meets the actual costs. Instance POP Model (Q. 14) Figure 15: Instance POP Model that relates its Form row to the corresponding elements of the 3D Model, organization model and schedule. 12 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki Executive Summary Table (Q. 15) Costs As planned Case Staggered Case Benefits Prediction: ≈$218M Predictions: • Finish start of July, 2009 • Hidden work ≈ 45k work days • Peak backlog ≈ 63 work days (project management) Prediction: ≈$176M Predictions: • Finish end of January, 2009 • Hidden work ≈ 18.5k work days • Peak backlog ≈ 17 work days (Shaft&Stairs subcontractor) Table 1: Overview that shows how organization modeling interventions could improve the overall performance of the Saudi Arabian Embassy project (all based on our assumptions). Reductions in hidden work and backlogs lead to an overall acceleration of the project. Consequently, this also leads to a reduction of the overall project costs. TEI Analysis (Q. 16) Figure 16: This TEI analysis shows that investments in VDC will basically paid back instantly. The assumptions we made are indicated by red squares. The analysis indicates that the investments are paid back instantly and the net income change is 35.9% (shown in green squares). Consequently, we would recommend investing in VDC. The TEI analysis assumes that CCC can improve the revenue of the Saudi Arabian Embassy by 2%. At the same time, the cost of contracted work will decrease by 3% and the cost of selfperformed work will increase by 2%. Furthermore, we assume that IT investments are only $25k. This assumption is based on the fact that CCC already makes wide use of VDC methods (e.g. 3D and 4D modeling). Therefore, CCC already owns necessary computers and most VDC software in place. Consequently, they will only have to invest in organization modeling software ($8k) 13 CCC Project Study CEE 243 March, 12 March 2007 Tony Dong Fernando Castillo Fabian Märki and Smart-Boards ($17k) which is a negligible amount compared to the total project costs of $220000k. We can conclude from this analysis that the investments are paid back instantly and the net income change would result in an increase of 35.9%. Therefore, we recommend investing in VDC. Business Recommendation (based on our assumptions) (Q. 17) By using organization modeling for the Saudi Arabian Embassy case example we were able to identify a potential of a high dependency on backlogs and hidden work. The organization model helped us to identify and understand the sources of the hidden work and backlogs. These sources seem to be the execution of reciprocal dependant task in a parallel fashion and a work overload of the project management. This results in a lot of hidden work which delays the project and leads to additional project cost. Based on our analysis and assumptions, we recommend performing the major project phases (Podium, Mission Tower and Residential Tower) in sequence in order to reduce hidden work. Moreover, we recommend adding an additional person to the project management in order to decrease its backlog. The resulting predicted improvements between our interventions and the case as the project is currently planned by CCC is summarized in Table 1. Based on our analysis and assumptions, we think we could show the potential and power of organization modeling. Furthermore, we could also show that the necessary additional cost required for VDC are negligible and will be paid back instantly and will lead to an net income increase of 35.9% (see also TEI Analysis (Q. 16)). Consequently, we recommend to use VDC (and especially organization modeling) for future projects. Power Point deck (Q. 18) The main focus of our presentation is organization modelling using SimVision. Therefore, we did not emphasis on POP models or the TEI analysis in the presentation since we believe it would distract our audience at CCC from our main focus. Next steps After getting to CCC, the first thing we will do is to present our proposal to Zuhair and other people involved in the project. Since most of the parameters we input in the SimVision model are based on assumptions, we will collect realistic information from the audience during the presentation. When the actual project information is collected, we will generate a new case in SimVision and make new predictions based on the real data. We will also do the comparison between the case based on our assumptions and the new case to draw some conclusions. Finally we will present our findings again to the CCC people and ask for their feedback to see whether it is possible for CCC to use the SimVision at the early stage of their future projects. Another possible step we will take is to investigate their current project management software system to see whether the system has any similar functions of SimVision. If they have, we will try to learn and evaluate the system’s performance. What the advantages and disadvantages their system has compared to SimVision. Hopefully, we can bring back something useful to CIFE besides the exciting personal experience in the mini-internship. 14